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Steve Blank
www.steveblank.com
Clean Tech Open Accelerator 2009, San Jose, California
Iʼm Confused
Market Risk
Clean Tech Markets
Air, Water Energy Green Renewables Smart Transport
& Waste Efficiency Building Power
Clean Tech Markets - Risk
Air, Water Energy Green Renewables Smart Transport
& Waste Efficiency Building Power
• Technology Risk
– risk is in development of the product (i.e. fuel cells, thin-film arrays,
etc.) then customers automatically adopt
• Customer risk
– risk is in customer and market adoption
• Which have both?
• You spend your time differently depending on risk
Next…
• Existing Market
• Resegment a Niche
• Resegment on Low Cost
• New Market
Definitions: Types of Markets
Existing Market Resegmented New Market
Market
• Existing Market
– Faster/Better = High end
• Resegmented Market
– Niche = marketing/branding driven
– Cheaper = low end
• New Market
– Cheaper/good enough can create a new class of product/customer
– Innovative/never existed before
Type of Market Changes Everything
• Market • Sales
– Market Size – Sales Model • Customers
– Cost of Entry - Needs
– Margins
– Launch Type – Sales Cycle - Adoption
– Competitive – Chasm Width
Barriers
– Positioning
• Finance
- Ongoing Capital
- Time to Profitability
How Big is It?
25
sizing up the market
SAM: Size of TV market
Panel display market.
($500 million!)
YEAR 1 PROJECTIONS
Units sold : 1,000,000
Price per unit : $700 - $1,000
Engagement
(Early Stages) School
Dept. Head Another
school
in the
district
Teacher Teacher
Distribution Channel
Licensed Partners:
• Sony Consumer electronics
• Samsung • Flat Screen TVs through
(Other possibilities - LG, Toshiba, Panasonic,
DuPont)
Fry’s, Best Buy, Magnolia,
etc
IP
A
P Patents Manufacturing DistribuDon Retail
E
X
Dollar flows:
Wages: founders &
Consultants
PA
IP Costs: Lawyer A
P License fees RT
NE
& Patent costs. RS
E Royalties
Premises: Dev’t labs. X
Demand Creation
Travel: $1,000
distribution and demand creation
Unique Idea: website and iPhone app form
symbiotic relationship
Travel
AdWords App
traffic
Listing
Software (in-house)
($1.00)
BUSINESS MODEL
iPhone Application Subscription Based Service
E
IC
SE
E
RV
NU
RV
RE
SE
VE
I
CE
VE
RE
Third
N
Nightlife
UE
party
venues
affiliates
CITYBEATS.COM
Two Revenue Streams
March | 2011
Total Revenue (year 1) = $ 90 K
Critical Mass: 500,000 users
Total Revenue (year 2) = $ 2.2 M
IP license for WiBat
technology Manufactured
Smaller Router Product
Product
Delivery
Planet Batteries $93.75
Retail Stores
i.e. Best Buy, Fry’s
End
User
$125 Sale
Corporate Investors
•Partner router companies
•Intel (they are interested in End Users
wireless technology)
i.e. college students
(See appendix E for figures)
Other Investors/Channels