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Reliability theory
Contents
• Introduction
• Structural system models
• Reliability of structures of independent repairable components
• Reliable network topology design
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9. Reliability theory
History
Approaches to reliability
• Hardware reliability
– Physical approach
• Strength S of an item is a random variable
• Load L the item is exposed to is another random variable
• Reliability R = Pr(S > L)
• Structural reliability analysis
– Actuarial approach ¬ our approach
• Time to failure T is studied using its distribution F(t)
• All information of individual strengths, loads, etc is conveyed in F(t)
• System reliability analysis
• Software reliability
• Human reliability
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9. Reliability theory
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9. Reliability theory
Basic concepts(3)
• Fault
– a defect or mistake which leads to error. Reason for an error.
• Error
– a system state which can lead to a failure
• Failure
– The termination of its ability to perform a required function (BS 4778)
– An unacceptable deviation from the design tolerance or in the anticipated
delivered service, an incorrect output, the incapacity to perform the desired
function (NASA 2002)
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9. Reliability theory
Cause
Fault
Fault prevention Fault tolerance
• aim is to design a system without
• aim is to be able to provide the
faults
• physical shielding of components, Error service even in the presence of
faults
careful manufacturing etc.
• main tool: redundancy!
• hardware
• software
• information
Failure • time
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9. Reliability theory
– Repairable items
Our focus
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9. Reliability theory
Systems of items
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9. Reliability theory
Applications
• Risk analysis
– Identification of accidental events
– Causal analysis
– Consequence analysis
• Environmental protection
• Quality
• Optimization and maintenance
• Engineering design
• Verification of quality
• Research and development
• ...
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9. Reliability theory
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9. Reliability theory
• We focus on
– Repairable systems
– Systems of independent components
– Exponential assumptions on mean time to failure and mean down time
– Thus, we get simple models using Markovian analysis
– Apply the models to topology design of communication networks where
availability is defined as connectivity of the network
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9. Reliability theory
Literature
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9. Reliability theory
Contents
• Introduction
• Structural system models
• Reliability of structures of independent repairable components
• Reliable network topology design
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9. Reliability theory
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9. Reliability theory
a 2 b
3
4
• Series and parallel structures can be further combined to model more
complex structures 19
9. Reliability theory
• The state vector of a structure is x = (x1, x2, ... , xn), where each state
variable xi is either 1 when component i is functioning or 0 when
component i is in a failed state
• The structure function of the system is
ì1 if the system is functioning
f (x) = í
î0 if the system is in a failed state
• For a series structure, the structure function is
n
f (x) = x1 × x2 L xn = Õ xi
i =1
– system works if and only if xi = 1 for all i
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9. Reliability theory
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9. Reliability theory
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9. Reliability theory
Demo/Exercise
2
1
3
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9. Reliability theory
Contents
• Introduction
• Structural system models
• Reliability of structures of independent repairable components
• Reliable network topology design
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9. Reliability theory
Repairable components/systems
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9. Reliability theory
MDT
0
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t
9. Reliability theory
• Markov model
– MTTF is independent and exponentially distributed with mean 1/
– MDT is independent and exponentially distributed with mean 1/
1 m
0 0 1
142 43 1424
3
l
~Exp(l) ~Exp(m)
í m MTTF
ï Aav = p 1 = =
ïî l + m MTTF + MDT
– Steady-state distribution holds even when MTTF and MDT have general
distributions (but still independent), insensitivity property
– Then no more a Markovian process but a so-called renewal process 31
9. Reliability theory
Examples (1)
• Example 1:
A machine has MTTF = 1000 hours and MDT = 5 hours
MTTF 1000
The average availability is Aav = = » 0.995
MTTF + MDT 1000 + 5
• Example 2:
Item has independent uptimes with constant failure rate l. Downtimes are IID
with mean MDT. Usually we have MDT << MTTF, the average unavailability is
then approximately
MTTF MDT
Aav = 1 - Aav = 1 - =
MTTF+ MDT MTTF + MDT
l × MDT
= » l × MDT
1 + l × MDT
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9. Reliability theory
= 1−
– Again distribution holds even under general distributions for MTTF and
MDT (insensitivity)
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9. Reliability theory
= =1
• The state space Ω can be partitioned into two sets
1. Up states Ω
• where the system is working. Note that some components may be in
failed state, but the system still provides the intended service.
2. Down states Ω
• where the system does not perform the required function
• The (average) availability of the system is given by
= ( )= 1 =1 ( )
∈ ∈
– similarly, unavailability is the sum of probabilities of down states
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9. Reliability theory
• As ( ) is a binary-valued function,
• However, in general
= ( ) ≠ ( )
– Thus, to calculate availability one can not just write down the structure
function ( ) and replace ’s by the corresponding ’s!
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9. Reliability theory
Demo/exercise
• Calculate the availability of the system below using the data given in
the table
2
1
3
• One can construct the associated Markov process and solve steady
state via global balance equations
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9. Reliability theory
Example
Contents
• Introduction
• Structural system models
• Reliability of structures of independent repairable components
• Reliable network topology design
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9. Reliability theory
• Question is..
– Given a network topology (nodes + links), what is a reliable network?
– By considering the network as a graph, reliability/availability can be
formalized by the notion of graph connectivity
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Examples
• 1-edge-connected
• 2-edge-connected
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= is 2 − connected = ( )
∈
• We still require that all nodes must stay 2-connected with 5-nines
– Thus, all nodes must then be operational and
• Note! This is just one version of the topology design objective and new
ones can be easily defined.
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9. Reliability theory
THE END
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