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ARTICLE IN PRESS

Risk of Stroke in Patients with Herpes Zoster: A Systematic


Review and Meta-Analysis

Sheng-Ye Yang, MM,*1 Hong-Xing Li, MM,†1 Xin-Hao Yi, MM,‡


Guang-Liang Han, MM,† Qiang Zong, MM,† Ming-Xing Wang, MM,† and
Xiao-Xiao Peng, MB,§

Background: Several observational studies suggest that herpes zoster (HZ) may
increase the risk of stroke, but the results are inconsistent. Our study was de-
signed to assess the association between HZ and the risk of stroke through a meta-
analysis of cohort studies. Methods: The electronic databases PubMed and EMBASE
were searched from inception to May 31, 2016 to identify relevant cohort studies
that assess the risk of stroke in patients with HZ. Reference lists were also re-
viewed to identify potential studies. The random-effects model and fixed-effects
model were used to calculate the summary relative risks (RRs) with 95% confi-
dence intervals (CIs). Results: Six cohort studies (251,076 HZ patients and 8462
cases of stroke) were identified in the study. The result showed that HZ was sig-
nificantly correlated with increased risk of stroke, and the pooled RR was 1.36
(95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.10, 1.67) (P = .004). In the subgroup analysis, the
significant association was observed except for stroke type (hemorrhage group).
In the sensitivity analysis, excluding 1 study, the pooled RR was 1.45 (95% CI:
1.17, 1.80) (P = .001) for HZ, and 4.42 (95% CI: 2.75, 7.11) (P = .000) for herpes
zoster ophthalmicus. Considerable heterogeneity was observed in our study. Con-
clusion: Our study furnishes evidence of a positive association between HZ and
the risk of stroke. Key Words: Herpes zoster—stroke—risk factor—meta-analysis.
© 2016 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Introduction worldwide.1-3 On average, every 40 seconds, someone has


a stroke and every 4 minutes, someone dies from stroke
Studies have reported that stroke is the second most
in the United States.2,3 Although the incidence of stroke
common cause of death and major cause of disability
has declined in many countries because of hypertension
management and reduced levels of smoking, the abso-
From the *Department of Dermatology, Shengli Oilfield Central
lute number of stroke was increasing due to an aging
Hospital, 31 Jinan Road, Dongying, Shandong 257000, China; †De-
partment of Neurosurgery, Shengli Oilfield Central Hospital, 31 Jinan
population.4 Stroke is considered to be a multifactorial
Road, Dongying, Shandong 257000, China; ‡Department of Central disease that is caused by several factors such as diabetes,
Laboratory, Shengli Oilfield Central Hospital, 31 Jinan Road, Dongying, hypertension, smoking, atrial fibrillation, and others. Primary
Shandong 257000, China; and §Department of Intensive Care Unit and secondary prevention should be a key public health
(ICU), Shengli Oilfield Central Hospital, 31 Jinan Road, Dongying,
priority of stroke in the current society.5 Hence, risk factor
Shandong 257000, China.
Received August 18, 2016; accepted September 13, 2016.
identification is crucial for the prevention of stroke.
Address correspondence to Xiao-Xiao Peng, MB, Department of Herpes zoster (HZ) is a common, painful disease caused
Intensive Care Unit (ICU), Shengli Oilfield Central Hospital, 31 Jinan by a reactivation of the latent varicella zoster virus (VZV)
Rd, Dongying, Shandong 257000, China. E-mail: luckpxx@sina.com. infection. HZ is a significant public health problem in
1
These authors contributed equally to this work.
aging populations that affect millions of people every year
1052-3057/$ - see front matter
© 2016 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All
in developed countries.6,7 During the past decades, in-
rights reserved. creasing evidence suggested that HZ played a important
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2016.09.021 role in developing stroke,8-10 and numerous studies have

Journal of Stroke and Cerebrovascular Diseases, Vol. ■■, No. ■■ (■■), 2016: pp ■■–■■ 1
ARTICLE IN PRESS
2 S.-Y. YANG ET AL.
11-19
assessed the association of HZ with stroke risk ; however, used for all statistical analysis. RRs were pooled in our
the association remains controversial. Some studies sug- study. Heterogeneity between studies was evaluated by
gested that HZ carries an increased risk of stroke,11,13-20 Cochran’s Q statistic24 and I2 statistic25 (I2 > 50% and P < .1
whereas the phenomenon has not been replicated in represented significant heterogeneity). RR was calcu-
another study.12 Recently, a large population-based cohort lated using a random-effects model when significant
study followed up 766,179 persons for 11 years and dem- heterogeneity, otherwise fixed-effects model. If more than
onstrated that HZ patients have a high risk of stroke.21 10 studies were included in the meta-analysis, a publi-
Therefore, a meta-analysis was carried out to investi- cation bias will be evaluated, which was assessed using
gate the relationship between HZ and stroke risk. Begg’s funnel plots and Egger’s regression test.26,27 Sen-
sitivity analysis was conducted to check the influence of
Materials and Methods the single study to the overall results.28 All values were
two sided and P ≤ .05 was considered statistically significant.
Literature Search Several subgroup analyses were conducted to probe the
Systematic literature searches for articles published potential heterogeneity as follows: risk period post-HZ
through Pubmed and Embase (date from database in- (0-3 months versus 0-12 months versus >12 months), gender
ception to May 31, 2016) were performed. The following (male versus female), age (≥18 years versus 18-50 years),
keywords were used in our research strategy: “stroke,” and stroke type (ischemic versus hemorrhagic versus tran-
“cerebrovascular disease,” “cerebrovascular disorders,” sient ischemic attack).
“cerebrovascular accident,” “cerebral infarct,” “ischemic
stroke,” “hemorrhage stroke,” “intracranial hemor- Results
rhage,” “intracranial artery disease,” and “herpes zoster,”
“herpes zoster virus,” “varicella zoster virus,” “chicken- Search Results and Study Characteristics
pox virus,” “herpes zoster ophthalmicus”. The reference There were 729 articles identified in the initial screen-
lists of the relevant articles were also reviewed to obtain ing. Most articles were excluded due to the following
potential pertinent studies. reasons: (1) duplication studies; (2) irrelevant studies; (3)
no observational studies; and (4) the articles were case
Inclusion and Exclusion Criteria report, reviews, letters, or editorials. By looking through
the titles and abstracts, 12 articles were selected for further
Studies will be included in the study if they met the
checking. After the full-text review, 6 articles were ex-
inclusion criteria: (1) cohort study design; (2) studies re-
cluded for the following reasons: 3 studies were designed
searched the association between HZ and stroke; (3) stroke
by self-controlled case-series study (SCCS)11,13,20; 2 studies
as the outcome, and was diagnosed post-HZ; (4) relative
researched herpesvirus but not HZ as a trigger for child-
risk (RR), incidence rate ratio (IRR), odds ratio (OR), or
hood stroke17,29; and one study assessed the stroke risk
hazard ratio (HR), with their corresponding 95% confi-
associated with HZ in the general population by using
dence interval (CI) (or could be calculated) were provided.
the time-dependent (dynamic) type.21 Eventually, 6 cohort
Case report, reviews, comments, and editorials were excluded.
studies were identified that met the inclusion criteria.12,14-16,18,19
The flow chart of literature search is shown in Figure 1.
Data Extraction The main characteristics of the 6 studies are listed in
The following information was extracted from each Table 1. A total of 251,076 HZ patients and 8462 cases
study: first author, year of publication, data source, study of stroke were included in these 6 studies between 2009
location or period, sample size, gender, follow-up years, and 2015. Two studies were conducted in Taiwan,15,16
age of subjects, adjustment factors, and the effect vari- 1 in Sweden,18 one in the United States,19 1 in the UK,12
ables (RR, HR, OR, IRR, and 95% CI). The Newcastle– and 1 in Denmark.14 Among the 6 studies, HR was used
Ottawa Scale (NOS) was used to assess the quality of in 3 studies to calculate risk estimates,12,15,16 IRR in 2
all included studies.22 Scores ranged from 0 to 9 stars, studies,14,18 and OR in 1 study.19 All studies were high
and the high-quality study was defined as a study ≥7 quality with Newcastle–Ottawa Scale score ≥7.
stars.22 Literature search, study selection, data extrac-
tion, and quality assessment were conducted by two HZ and Stroke Risk
investigators (S-Y.Y. and H-X.L.) independently, and any
disagreements were resolved through discussion. All studies were included to assess the association
between HZ and stroke risk. The combined RR was 1.36
(95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.10, 1.67) (P = .004), which
Statistical Analysis
determined that patients with HZ had a 36% higher risk
Our meta-analysis was performed and reported ac- of developing stroke compared with non-HZ. There were
cording to the standard criteria of observational studies.23 significant heterogeneity found between these studies
STATA 12.0 (Stata Corporation, College Station, TX) was (I2 = 87.8%, P = .000). For herpes zoster ophthalmicus
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STROKE RISK IN HZ PATIENTS 3

Sensitivity Analysis and Publication Bias


For the sensitivity analysis, we deleted 1 study at each
time from the overall pooled analysis to investigate the
influence of a single study on the overall RRs. For HZ,
the combined RR was 1.45 (95% CI: 1.17, 1.80) (P = .001)
after excluding the study by Breuer et al,12 and 4.42 (95%
CI: 2.75, 7.11) (P = .000) for HZO. These results revealed
that HZO carries an increased risk of stroke, but not robust.
Owing to a small number studies included, neither
Begg’s funnel plots nor Egger’s regression test was used
to evaluate the publication bias.

Discussion
As far as we know, this study is the first comprehen-
sive meta-analysis to evaluate the association of the stroke
risk and HZ to date. The meta-analysis of 6 cohort studies
involving 251,076 HZ patients and 8462 cases of stroke
demonstrated that patients with HZ may increase the risk
Figure 1. Flow chart of studies included in the meta-analysis. of stroke. Subgroup analysis also found an association
between HZ and the risk of stroke no matter the strat-
ification factors, with an exception of the hemorrhagic
stroke group.
(HZO), 3 studies12,15,16 were included and the pooled Subgroup analysis by stroke type identified that HZ
risk estimates RR was 2.62 (95% CI: .85, 8.06) (P = .092), was strongly associated with ischemic stroke (RR = 1.99;
with high heterogeneity (I2 = 92.3%, P = .000). The forest 95% CI: 1.04-3.81; P = .037), but not hemorrhagic stroke
plot of the stroke risk in HZ and HZO is shown in (RR = 1.86; 95% CI: .76-4.54; P = .173). Lin et al found that
Figure 2. HZ may be a significant risk factor for ischemic stroke
but not for hemorrhagic stroke.15 However, another study
showed that there were no differences between cases and
Stratified Analysis
controls in incidence by stroke type.12 Moreover, Kang
Several subgroup analyses of stroke risk with HZ were et al reported that the patients with HZ both increased
performed, and the results are listed in Table 2. the risk of hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke, but the risk
In the stratified analysis by risk period post-HZ, 2 studies was higher for hemorrhagic stroke.16 Previous studies have
were included.14,19 The pooled RR for 0-3 months was 1.94 shown that VZV could lead to a series of clinical mani-
(95% CI: 1.33, 2.84) (P = .001), for 0-12 months was 1.17 festations, including vertebral artery stenosis,30 aneurysm,31
(95% CI: 1.10, 1.25) (P = .000), and for >12 months was infarctions,32 arterial dolichoectasia,33 hemorrhagic stroke.34
1.05 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.09) (P = .004). These results suggest In the meantime, high heterogeneity was observed in the
that HZ patients have a higher risk of stroke within a current analysis. Although the random-effects model was
short term (3 months). used to estimate the accumulated effect in the study, the
In the stratified analysis by gender, 3 studies were results were not robust. Therefore, further exploration into
included.14,16,18 Similar results were achieved for both male this matter was suggested.
and female patients, with the combined RR as 1.31 (95% Heterogeneity is a factor of concern in a meta-
CI: 1.13, 1.53) (P = .000) for male and 1.31 (95% CI: 1.15, analysis. Substantial evidence of heterogeneity was observed
1.51) (P = .000) for female. in our study. This is not surprising because the in-
As per stratification by age, 6 and 4 studies provided cluded studies were different with regard to study design,
enough information for age ≥18 years and age 18-50 years geographic area, characteristic of populations, and ad-
subgroups, respectively. The summary RR was 1.36 (95% justment for confounding factors. Although the included
CI: 1.10, 1.68) (P = .004) for age ≥18 years, and 1.64 (95% studies in our meta-analysis were cohort studies, some
CI: 1.18, 2.28) (P = .003) for age 18-50 years. were 1-year follow-up 1 year whereas others 6-7 years
For stratification by stroke type, the data showed that of follow-up. In our meta-analysis, the identified studies
a significant association was detected for ischemic stroke were conducted in different geographic regions—
in patients with HZ, and the pooled RR was 1.99 (95% European, Asian, and North American—where people have
CI: 1.04, 3.81) (P = .037). Nevertheless, no significant cor- different living habits, work style,s and genetic back-
relation was observed between hemorrhagic stroke and grounds, which may affect the results. Hence, the random-
HZ (RR = 1.86; 95% CI: .76-4.54; P = .173). effects model was used in these analyses, which was
4
Table 1. Study characteristics of HZ and the risk of stroke

No. of stroke Adjusted risk


Data case/HZ Follow-up estimate with
References Location period source patients Gender (Y) Age (Y) HZ variables assessed and adjustment (95% CI)

Sundström Sweden VGC 111/13,269 M; F; 1 >0 Stroke, age, sex; adjusted for age and sex 1.34 (1.12, 1.62)
et al18 2008-2010 MF
Yawn USA REP 562/4862 MF 7.1 (Mean) ≥50 Stroke, age, risk period after HZ; adjusted for 1.21 (.98, 1.51)
et al19 January 1986- 68.1 (Mean) age, sex, hypertension, coronary artery
October 2011 disease, diabetes, depression
Breuer UK THIN 2727/106,601 MF 6.3 (Mean) ≥18 Stroke, TIA, ischemic and hemorrhagic 1.02 (.98, 1.07)

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et al12 2002-2010 57.8 (Mean) stroke, HZO, age; adjusted for sex, age,
obesity, smoking status, history of
cholesterol, hypertension, diabetes,
ischemic heart disease, atrial fibrillation,
intermittent arterial claudication, carotid
stenosis, and valvular heart disease
Sreenivasan Denmark CRS; 4,876/117,926 M; F; ≥1 ≥18 Stroke, age, risk period after HZ, antiviral 1.35 (1.09, 1.67)
et al14 January 1995- NRMPS; MF treatment, gender; adjusted for age, sex,
December 2008 NPR and calendar period
Lin et al15 Taiwan NHIRD 53/658 MF 1 ≥18 Stroke, HZO, no antiviral treatment, ischemic 4.52 (2.45, 8.33)
January 2003- 56.9 (Mean) and hemorrhagic stroke, risk period after
December 2004 HZ; adjusted for age, gender, hypertension,
diabetes, hyperlipidemia, coronary heart
disease, chronic rheumatic heart disease,
other forms of heart disease, and
medication habits
Kang Taiwan NHIRD 133/7760 M; F; 1 ≥18 Stroke, age, HZO, sex, age, ischemic and 1.31 (1.06, 1.60)
et al16 January 1997- MF 46.7 (Mean) hemorrhagic stroke; adjusted for sex, age,
December 2001 hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart
disease, hyperlipidemia, renal disease, atrial
fibrillation, heart failure, heart valve/
myocardium disease, carotid/peripheral
vascular disease, monthly income,

S.-Y. YANG ET AL.


urbanization level, and geographical region

Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; CRS, Danish Civil Registration System; F, female; HZ, herpes zoster; HZO, herpes zoster ophthalmicus; M, male; MF, male and female; NHIRD, Taiwan
National Health Insurance Research Database; NPR, National Patient Registry; NRMPS, Danish National Register of Medicinal Product Statistics; REP, The Rochester Epidemiology Project; THIN,
The Health Improvement Network; TIA, transient ischemic attack; VGC, Västra Götaland County; Y, year.
ARTICLE IN PRESS
STROKE RISK IN HZ PATIENTS 5

Figure 2. Forest plot of stroke risk with herpes zoster and herpes zoster ophthalmicus. (Herpes zoster: studies that have the overall data. Herpes zoster
ophthalmicus: studies that have the data of herpes zoster ophthalmicus.) Abbreviation: RR, relative risk.

Table 2. Results of meta-analysis for HZ and risk of stroke

Group No. of studies RR (95% CI) P value I2 (%) P heterogeneity Analysis model

HZ 6 1.36 (1.10, 1.67) .004 87.8 .000 Random-effects model


HZO 3 2.62 (.85, 8.06) .092 92.3 .000 Random-effects model
Risk period post-HZ (months)
0-3 2 1.94 (1.33, 2.84) .001 63.0 .027 Random-effects model
0-12 2 1.17 (1.10, 1.25) .000 .0 .770 Fixed-effects model
>12 2 1.05 (1.02, 1.09) .004 .0 .945 Fixed-effects model
Gender
Male 3 1.31 (1.13, 1.53) .000 .0 .996 Fixed-effects model
Female 3 1.31 (1.15, 1.51) .000 .0 .895 Fixed-effects model
Age (years)
≥18 6 1.36 (1.10, 1.68) .004 87.5 .000 Random-effects model
18-50 4 1.64 (1.18, 2.28) .003 14.1 .312 Fixed-effects model
Stroke type
Ischemic stroke 3 1.99 (1.04, 3.81) .037 95.6 .000 Random-effects model
Hemorrhagic stroke 3 1.86 (.76, 4.53) .173 89.5 .000 Random-effects model
TIA 1 1.15 (1.09, 1.21) — — — —

Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; HZ, herpes zoster; HZO, herpes zoster ophthalmicus; RR, relative risk; TIA, transient ischemic
attack.
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6 S.-Y. YANG ET AL.
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