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ASSIGNMENT 2

SPRING SEMESTER 2018


ES 202 - ENGINEERING STATISTICS

1. An assembly consists of three mechanical components. Suppose that the probabili-


ties that the first, second, and third components meet specifications are 0.95, 0.98,
and 0.99. Assume that the components are independent. Determine the probability
mass function of the number of components in the assembly that meet specifications.

X 0 1 2 3
Answer:
Pr(X=x) 0.00001 0.00167 0.07663 0.92169
2. A disk drive manufacturer sells storage devices with capacities of one terabyte, 500
gigabytes, and 100 gigabytes with probabilities 0.5, 0.3, and 0.2, respectively. The
revenues associated with the sales in that year are estimated to be $50 million, $25
million, and $10 million, respectively. Let X denote the revenue of storage devices
during that year. Determine the probability mass function of X.

X 50 25 10
Answer:
Pr(X=x) 0.5 0.3 0.2
3. A production lot contains hundred items five of which are defective. A sample of
three items is selected, without replacement, from this lot. Let X be the number of
defective items in the sample.
(a) Write the Sample Space of this experiment and Range Set of X.
(b) Make a Probability Distribution Table of X.
(c) Sketch a graph of p.m.f. of X.
(d) Calculate Mean and Variance of X.
Answer: (d) E(X) = 0.1505 and V ar(X) = 0.1396
4. Let X be a discrete random variable with range consisting of the values x1 < x2 <
x3 · · · < xn . Then prove that
fX (x1 ) = FX (x1 ) and fX (xi ) = FX (xi ) − FX (xi−1 )

5. Let X be a discrete random variable with range consisting of the values x1 < x2 <
x3 · · · < xn . Then prove that
(a) P r(X > xi ) = 1 − FX (xi ) for i = 1, 2, · · · , n;
(b) P r(X ≥ xi ) = 1 − FX (xi−1 ) for i = 2, · · · , n;
(c) P r(X ≥ x1 ) = 1.
6. Find a formula for the probability distribution of the total number of heads obtained
in three tosses os a balanced coin and use it to generate corresponding probability
distribution table.

1 3

Answer: fX (x) = 8
× x

1
7. Approximately 10% of the glass bottles coming off a production line have serious
flaws in the glass. If two bottles are randomly selected, find the mean and variance
of the number of bottles that have serious flaws.

Answer: E(X) = 0.20 V ar(X) = 0.18


8. Ten equally qualified applicants, six men and four women, apply for three lab tech-
nician positions. Unable to justify choosing any of the applicants over all the others,
the personnel director decides to select the three at random. Let X denote the num-
ber of men hired. Compute the standard deviation of X.

X 0 1 2 3
Answer: 4 36 60 20 E(X) = 1.8 SD(X) = 0.7483
Pr(X=x) 120 120 120 120

9. A fair cubicle die is tossed 2 times. Let X be the sum and Y be the (absolute)
difference of outcome numbers that result.
(a) Write the Range Sets of X and Y.
(b) Make probability distribution tables of X and Y.
(c) Sketch graphs of p.m.f. of X and Y.
(d) Calculate Mean and Variance of X and Y.
35 35 665
Answer: (d) E(X) = 7 and V ar(X) = 6
; E(Y ) = 18
and V ar(Y ) = 324

10. A fair cubicle die is tossed 2 times. Let X be the sum and Y be the difference of
outcome numbers that result.
6 − |x − 7|
(a) Verify that f (x) = is the p.m.f. of X.
36
(b) Calculate P r(X = 9 and Y = 3).
(c) Are X and Y independent?
1
Answer: (b) (c) No
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11. Check whether the function given by
x+2
f (x) =
25
can serve as p.m.f. of a random variable X whose range is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5}.

Answer: Yes
12. A fair coin is tossed three times. Let X be the total number of heads obtained as
a result. Write down cumulative distribution function of X and graph it.
13. For what values of k can
(1 − k)k x for x = 0, 1, 2, . . .
serve as the p.m.f. of a random variable?

Answer: 0 < k < 1

2
14. Given that X has the distribution function


 0 f or x < −1

1
 4 f or −1≤x<1



FX (x) = 12 f or 1≤x<3
 3
f or 3≤x<5




 4
1 f or x≥5

find the following probabilities:

(a) P r(X ≤ 3) (b) P r(X = 3) (c) P r(X < 3)


(d) P r(X > 1) (e) P r(−1 < X < 4)
3 1 1 1 1
Answer: (a) (b) (c) (d) (e)
4 4 2 2 2
15. A coin is biased so that heads is three times as likely as tails. For three independent
tosses of the coin, let X be the total number of heads observed. Find

(a) the probability distribution of X;


(b) the probability of getting at most two heads;
(c) P r(1 < X ≤ 3);
(d) P r(X > 2);
(e) the Mean and Variance of X.
37 27 27 9 9
Answer: (b) (c) (d) (e) E(x) = ; V ar(X) =
64 32 64 4 16
16. A lottery game pays $10 to the player each time he rolls an even sum with a pair
of fair cubicle dice; while the player pays back $10 each time he rolls an odd sum.

(a) Is this a fair game?


(b) The player plays 100 games. What is his expected income/loss?

Answer: (a) Yes (b) Zero

17. A person uses a bunch of n keys to open his door lock where only one key is the
right one. He tries different keys, one at a time, until the lock opens. What is the
average number of keys that he has to try before he unlocks the door?
n+1
Answer:
2
18. A box contains 7 red and 3 blue balls. Ball are selected at random, one at a time
and without replacement, until we get the first red ball. What is the expected
number of balls drawn until we get the first red ball?
11
Answer: = 1.375
8

3
19. A heavy-equipment salesperson can contact either one or two customers per day
with probability 1/3 and 2/3, respectively. Each contact will result in either no
sale or a $50,000 sale, with the probabilities 0.9 and 0.1, respectively. Give the
probability distribution for daily sales. Find the mean and standard deviation of
the daily sales.

Answer: E(S) = 8333.33 V ar(S) = 4.496 × 108 SD(S) = 21202.7552

20. A salesman has scheduled two appointments to sell encyclopedias. His first appoint-
ment will lead to a sale with probability 3/10, and his second will lead independently
to a sale with probability 6/10. Any sale made is equally likely to be either for the
deluxe model, which costs $1000, or the standard model, which costs $500. Deter-
mine the probability mass function of X, the total dollar value of all sales.

X 0 500 1000 1500 2000


Answer: E(X) = $675
Pr(X=x) 0.28 0.27 0.315 0.090 0.045
21. Suppose that a fair die is rolled twice and the following random variables are defined.
Write down their range sets and calculate the probabilities associated with each of
them:

(a) the maximum value that appears in the two rolls;


(b) the minimum value that appears in the two rolls;
(c) the value of the first roll minus the value of the second roll.

Answer:
X 1 2 3 4 5 6
(a) 1 3 5 7 9 11
Pr(X=x) 36 36 36 36 36 36

X 1 2 3 4 5 6
(b) 11 9 7 5 3 1
Pr(X=x) 36 36 36 36 36 36

X 0 ±1 ±2 ±3 ±4 ±5
(c) 6 5 4 3 2 1
Pr(X=x) 36 36 36 36 36 36

22. A rental agency, which leases heavy equipment by the day, has found that one
expensive piece of equipment is leased, on the average, only one day in five. If
rental on one day is independent of rental on any other day, find the probability
distribution of X , the number of days between a pair of rentals.
 n−1
1 4
Answer: RX = {1, 2, 3, . . . ∞} fX (x) = ×
5 5
23. Five distinct numbers are randomly distributed to players numbered 1 through 5.
Whenever two players compare their numbers, the one with the higher one is de-
clared the winner. Initially, players 1 and 2 compare their numbers; the winner then
compares her number with that of player 3, and so on. Let X denote the number
of times player 1 is a winner. Find P r(X = i), i = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4.

X 0 1 2 3 4
Answer: 1 1 1 1 1
Pr(X=x) 2 6 12 20 5

4
24. An insurance company issues a one-year $1000 policy insuring against an occurrence
A that historically happens to 2 out of every 100 owners of the policy. Adminis-
trative fees are $15 per policy and are not part of the company’s profit. How much
should the company charge for the policy if it requires that the expected profit per
policy be $50?

Hint: If C is the premium for the policy, the company’s profit is C − 15 if A


does not occur and C − 15 − 1000 if A does occur.

Answer: C = $85
25. You and a friend play a game where you each toss a balanced coin. If the upper
faces on the coins are both tails, you win $1; if the faces are both heads, you win
$2; if the coins do not match (one shows a head, the other a tail), you lose $1. Let
Y be your winnings on a single play of this game.
(a) Give the probability distribution of Y.
(b) Calculate the mean and variance of Y. Also calculate your expected gain/loss
on 100 plays of this game.
(c) Is this a fair game? If not, how much should you pay (or be paid) to play this
game so as to make it a fair game?
Answer:
Y -1 1 2
(a)
Pr(Y=y) 12 14 14
1 27
(b) E(Y ) = V ar(Y ) = Expected Gain = $25
4 16
(c) No. Pay $0.25 per game.
26. Four buses carrying 148 students from the same school arrive at a football stadium.
The buses carry, respectively, 40, 33, 25, and 50 students. One of the students
is randomly selected. Let X denote the number of students that were on the bus
carrying the randomly selected student. One of the 4 bus drivers is also randomly
selected. Let Y denote the number of students on his bus.
(a) Which of E(X) or E(Y) do you think is larger? Why?
(b) Compute E(X) and E(Y).
Answer:
(a) E(X) since whereas the bus driver selected is equally likely to be from any
of the 4 buses, the student selected is more likely to have come from a bus
carrying a large number of students.
(b) E(X) = 39.28 E(Y) = 37
27. A gambling book recommends the following winning strategy for the game of roulette:
Bet $1 on red. If red appears (which has probability 18
38
), then take the $1 profit
20
and quit. If red does not appear and you lose this bet (which has probability 38
of occurring), make additional $1 bets on red on each of the next two spins of the
roulette wheel and then quit. Let X denote your winnings when you quit.

5
(a) Calculate the probability that your winnings are not zero (i.e. P r(X > 0)).
(b) Are you convinced that the strategy is indeed a winning strategy? Explain
your answer!
(c) Find average amount of winnings E(X).

Answer:

(a) P r(X > 0) = Pr(win first game OR win second & third game)
= P r(W ) + P r(LW W ) = 0.5918.
(b) No, because if the gambler wins then he or she wins $1. However, a loss would
either be $1 or $3.
(c) E(X) = -0.108

28. Let X be a discrete random variable with mean µ and variance σ 2 . If a and b are
constants, show that

(a) E(aX + b) = aE(X) + b = aµ + b


(b) V ar(aX + b) = a2 V ar(X) = a2 σ 2

29. Two coins are to be flipped. The first coin will land on heads with probability 0.6,
the second with probability 0.7. Assume that the results of the flips are independent,
and let X equal the total number of heads that result.

(a) Find P r(X = 1).


(b) Determine E(X) and V ar(X).

Answer: (a) 0.46 (b) E(X) = 1.3; V ar(X) = 0.45

30. Abox contains 5 red and 5 blue marbles. Two marbles are withdrawn randomly. If
they are the same color, then you win $2; if they are different colors, then you lose
$1.00. Calculate the expected value of the amount you win?
1
Answer: = 0.66
3