Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
by Ken Black
Chapter 9
Statistical Inference:
Hypothesis Testing
for Single Populations
Copyright2010
2010John
JohnWiley
Wiley&&Sons,
Sons,Inc.
Inc. 1
Copyright
Learning Objectives
Understand the logic of hypothesis testing, and know how to
establish null and alternate hypotheses.
Understand Type I and Type II errors, and know how to solve
for Type II errors.
Know how to implement the Hypothesis, Test, Action, Business
(HTAB) system to test hypotheses.
Test hypotheses about a single population mean when is
known.
Test hypotheses about a single population mean when is
unknown.
Test hypotheses about a single population proportion.
Test hypotheses about a single population variance.
Hypothesis Testing – researchers are able to structure
problems in such a way that the researcher can use
statistical evidence to test various theories about
phenomena
1. Research Hypothesis
a statement of what the researcher believes will be the
outcome of an experiment or a study.
2. Statistical Hypotheses
a more formal structure derived from the research
hypothesis.
Composed of two parts
Null hypothesis (Ho) – null hypothesis exists;
old statement is correct
Alternative (Ha) – the new theory is true
3. Substantive Hypotheses ‐ a statistically significant
difference does not imply or mean a material,
substantive difference.
If the null hypothesis is rejected and the alternative
hypothesis is accepted, then one can say that a statistically
significant result has been obtained
With “significant” results, you reject the null hypothesis
Two Parts
a null hypothesis ‐ nothing new is happening; the null
condition exists
an alternative hypothesis ‐ something new is happening
Notation
null: H0
alternative: Ha
The Null and Alternative Hypotheses are mutually
exclusive.
Only one of them can be true.
The Null and Alternative Hypotheses are collectively
exhaustive.
The Null Hypothesis is assumed to be true.
The burden of proof falls on the Alternative
Hypothesis.
A manufacturer is filling 40 oz. packages with flour.
The company wants the package contents to average
40 ounces.
H 0 : 40 oz
H a : 40 oz
One‐tailed Tests
H 0 : 40 H 0 : p 0.18
H a : 40 H a : p 0.18
Two‐tailed Test
H 0 : 12
H a : 12
1. Establish hypotheses: state the null and alternative
hypotheses.
2. Determine the appropriate statistical test and
sampling distribution.
3. Specify the Type I error rate (
4. State the decision rule.
5. Gather sample data.
6. Calculate the value of the test statistic.
7. State the statistical conclusion.
8. Make a managerial decision.
Conceptually and graphically, statistical outcomes
that result in the rejection of the null hypothesis lie
in what is termed the rejection region.
Statistical outcomes that fail to result in the rejection
of the null hypothesis lie in what is termed the
nonrejection region.
Possible statistical outcomes
1. Reject null hypothesis – results lie in this area
2. Do not reject hypothesis – stat results fail to reject
the null hypothesis
3. ***If values fall in “rejection region” you reject the
null hypothesis
4. DRAW THE REJECTION AND NON‐REJECTION GRAPH
Rejection Region
Rejection Region
Non Rejection Region
=40 oz
Critical Value Critical Value
Type I Error
Committed by rejecting a true null hypothesis
If the null hypothesis is true, any mean that falls in a
rejection region will be a type I error
The probability of committing a Type I error is called ,
the level of significance.
Type II Error
Committed when a researcher fails to reject a false null
hypothesis
The probability of committing a Type II error is called .
H 0 : 40 H0 : 40
H a : 40 Ha : 40
Rejection Region Rejection Region
Non Rejection Region Non Rejection Region
=40 oz =40 oz
Critical Value Critical Value
Ho : 40 Rejection Rejection
Region Region
Ha : 40 Non Rejection Region
=12 oz
Critical Values
Step 2: Test
z X
/ n
Testing Hypotheses about a Population
Mean Using the z Statistic ( Known)
Step 3: Specify the Type I error rate‐
= 0.05 z/2 = 1.96
Step 4: Establish the decision rule‐
Reject H0 if the test statistic < ‐1.96 or it the
test statistic > 1.96.
Testing Hypotheses about a Population
Mean Using the z Statistic ( Known)
Step 5: Gather sample data‐
x‐bar = $78,695, n = 112, = $14,530,
hypothesized = $74,914.
Step 6: Compute the test statistic.
z 78,69574,914 2.75
14,530/ 112
Testing Hypotheses about a Population
Mean Using the z Statistic ( Known)
Step 7: Reach a statistical conclusion‐
Since z = 2.75 > 1.96, reject H0.
Step 8: Business decision‐
Statistically, the researcher has enough evidence
to reject the figure of $74,914 as the true average
salary for CPAs. In addition, based on the evidence
gathered, it may suggest that the average has
ncreased over the 10‐year period.
CPA Net Income Example:
Two‐tailed Test (Part 2)
If z zc 1.96, reject H 0 .
If z zc 1.96, do not reject H 0 .
0
: $74,914 Lower
xc z c
a
: $74,914 n
14 ,530
74 ,914 1 . 96
112
.025 .025 72 , 223
2
Rejection
ection Region
Upper
gion
Non Rejection Region xc zc
n
72,223 77,605 14 ,530
zc 1.96 z0 zc 1.96 74 ,914 1 . 96
112
Z c 1.96 =0 Zc 1.96 77 ,605
Using p value to Test Hypothesis
P value – another way to reach statistical conclusion
n hypothesis testing
No preset value of α is given in the p value method
p value defines the smallest value of α for which the null
hypothesis can be ejected
p‐value < reject H0
p‐value do not reject H0
Using p value to Test Hypothesis
For two tailed test, alpha is split to determine the
critical value of the test statistic
With the p value, the probability of getting a test statistic
at least as extreme as the observed value is computed
The p value is then compared z or α/2 for two tailed tests
to determine statistical significance
Using the p‐Value to Test Hypotheses
One should be careful when using p‐values from
statistical software outputs.
Both MINITAB and EXCEL report the actual p‐values
for hypothesis tests.
MINITAB doubles the p‐value for a two‐tailed test so
you can compare with .
EXCEL does not double the p‐value for a two‐tailed
test. So when using the p‐value from EXCEL, you may
multiply the value by 2 and then compare with .
Demonstration Problem: MINITAB
Using the p‐Value to Test Hypotheses
ritical Value Method to Test Hypotheses
The critical value method determines the critical
mean value required for z to be in the rejection
region and uses it to test the hypotheses.
x
zc
c
n
ritical Value Method to Test Hypotheses
For the previous example,
1.96 xc 74,914
14,530
112
Thus, a sample mean greater than $77,605 or less
than $72,223 will result in the rejection of the null
hypothesis.
The test statistic for this test is
2 (n1) s 2
2
Testing Hypotheses About a Variance:
Demonstration Problem 9.4
A small business has 37 employees. Because of the uncertain
demand for its product, the company usually pays overtime
on any given week. The company assumed that about 50 total
hours of overtime per week is required and that the variance
on this figure is about 25. Company officials want to know
whether the variance of overtime hours has changed. Given
here is a sample of 16 weeks of overtime data (in hours per
week). Assume hours of overtime are normally distributed.
Use these data to test the null hypothesis that the variance
of overtime data is 25. Let
57 56 52 44
46 53 44 44
48 51 55 48
Testing Hypotheses About a Variance:
Demonstration Problem 9.4
Step 1:
H0: 2 = 25
Ha: 2 25
Step 2: Test statistic
2 (n1) s 2
2
Testing Hypotheses About a Variance:
Demonstration Problem 9.4
Step 3: Because this is a two‐tailed test,
= 0.10 and /2 = 0.05.
Step 4: The degrees of freedom are 16 – 1 = 15.
The two critical chi‐square values are 2(1 – 0.05), 15
= 2 0.95, 15 = 7.26093 and 2 0.05, 15 = 24.9958.
Step 5: The data are listed in the text.
Step 6: The sample variance is s2 = 28.1.
The observed chi‐square value is calculated as
2 = 16.86.
Testing Hypotheses About a Variance:
Demonstration Problem 9.4
Step 7: The observed chi‐square value is in the
nonrejection region because 2 0.95, 15 = 7.26093
< 2observed = 16.86 < 2 0.05), 15 = 24.9958.
Step 8: This result indicates to the company
managers that the variance of weekly overtime
hours is about what they expected.
Solving for Type II Errors
When the null hypothesis is not rejected, then either
a correct decision is made or an incorrect decision is
made.
f an incorrect decision is made, that is, if the null
hypothesis is not rejected when it is false, then a
Type II, , error has occurred.
Solving for Type II Errors (Soft Drink)
Suppose a test is conducted on the following
hypotheses: H0: = 12 ounces vs. Ha: < 12 ounces
when the sample size is 60 with mean of 11.985.
The first step in determining the probability of a Type
I error is to calculate a critical value for the sample
mean (in this case).
For an =0.05, then the critical value for the sample
mean is (given on next slide).
Solving for Type II Errors (Soft Drink)
In testing the null hypothesis
xc by the critical value method,
zc this value is used as the
/ n cutoff for the nonrejection
region. For any sample mean
xc 12 obtained that is less than
1.645 11.979, the null hypothesis is
0.10 / 60
rejected. Any sample mean
greater than 11.979, the null
xc 11.979 hypothesis is not rejected.
Solving for Type II Errors (Soft Drink)
Since a Type II error, , varies with possible values of
the alternative parameter, then for an alternative
mean of 11.99 (< 12) the corresponding z‐value is
xc
z1 1
/ n
11.979 11.99
z1
0.10 / 60
z1 0.85
Solving for Type II Errors (Soft Drink)
The value of z yields an area of 0.3023.
The probability of committing a Type II error is
equal to the area to the right of the critical value
of the sample mean of 11.979.
This area is = 0.3023 + 0.5000 = 0.8023.
Thus, there is an 80.23% chance of committing a
Type II error if the alternative mean is 11.99.
Note: equivalent problems can be solved for sample
proportions (See Demonstration Problem 9.6).
perating Characteristic and Power Curve
Because the probability of committing a Type II error
changes for each different value of the alternative
parameter, it is best to examine a series of possible
alternative values.
The power of a test is the probability of rejecting the
null hypothesis when it is false.
Power = 1 ‐ .