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Pilot
Demand
Outlook
10-year view
Yourworldwide
Your worldwide
trainingpartner
training partner
ofchoice
of choice
Airline Pilot Demand,
10-year outlook at a glance
Dear aviation colleagues,
City-pairs Active
Passenger trips with direct flights commercial aircraft As you may know, the projected increase in passenger air
traffic is expected to double the size of the commercial aviation
industry over the next 20 years. This growth has significant
4.8B 25k 37K implications for the professional pilot pipeline worldwide.
+12K 150k
3.2B +1,6B 18k
+7K 25K As the industry’s training partner of choice, we work with
over 300 airlines and train more than 120,000 pilots annually
at every phase of their career. These relationships give us
Growth of active a privileged vantage point of both the market and industry
pilot pool needs.
2017 2027 2017 2027 2017 2027 On behalf of CAE, I am proud to share these insights with the
broader industry for the first time through our Airline Pilot
Demand Outlook. This 10-year view builds on a detailed forecast
and addresses airline pilot needs globally.
MIDDLE EAST
qualified pilots it requires to continue leading the way in
2017
2027
AMERICAS EUROPE & AFRICA ASIA-PACIFIC New pilots required safety and security — cost effectively and efficiently.
+85K +50K +30K +90K for growth
and replacement
New pilots New pilots New pilots New pilots Nick Leontidis
CAE Group President
Civil Aviation Training Solutions
50%
Of pilots flying by 2027 have
70
New pilots/day
180k New captains
not started to train yet
Table 13
14
Part II: Drivers of airline pilot demand
Fleet growth
of contents
16 Pilot/aircraft ratios
18 Pilot retirement and attrition
8 | CAE AIRLINE PILOT DEMAND OUTLOOK: 10-YEAR VIEW CAE AIRLINE PILOT DEMAND OUTLOOK: 10-YEAR VIEW |9
Pilot training progression
The continuous evolution of pilot training However, over the past two decades, regu-
regulations has contributed to the air trans- lated training has increasingly leveraged the
port industry’s safety record. Over the past use of data and competencies to improve Added data
few decades, the industry has consistently training outcomes. beyond flight envelope
improved pilot training to further enhance
safety.
Combined competencies
and training data
Integrated pilot
competencies
framework
Complemented with MPL EBT UPRT
structure for line data
The advent of the Multi-Crew Pilot Evidence-Based Training (EBT), a joint Upset Prevention and Recovery Train-
Incorporated line
Licence (MPL) is a key milestone that effort between ICAO, IATA and IFALPA ing (UPRT) uses competencies and data
flying observations
marked the industry coming together (International Federation of Air Line from inside and outside the regular
to improve the pilot creation process. Pilots’ Associations), incorporates op- flight envelope.
erational data (flight data analysis, flight
MPL leveraged ICAO’s competency observations and air safety reports) It addresses the number one cause of
AQP/ATQP FOQA ICAO pilot competencies framework and introduced an objec- into pilot training and assessment to accidents leading to fatalities by focusing
tive development process for cadets. improve air safety. on the competencies related to situ-
The FAA introduced the Advanced Supported by ICAO, Flight Operations The International Civil Aviation Organi- ational awareness and manual flying.
Qualification Program (AQP) as an Quality Assurance (FOQA), also known zation (ICAO) developed a framework MPL further leverages the increased use This helps develop and assess the overall
alternate means for complying with as Flight Data Monitoring (FDM), brought of eight competencies covering the of simulation based training by having capability for training across the range UPRT training is now required by EASA
existing rigid regulated training. The in a structured approach to collecting knowledge, skills and attitude required cadets spend over half of their practical of competencies. and will be required by the FAA for all
European equivalent, the Alternative line flying data. to fly in a commercial environment. training in a commercial aircraft cockpit FAR 121 operators by 2019, alongside
Training and Qualification Program as opposed to a small private aircraft. EBT provides a baseline, ready-made full stall and adverse conditions training
(ATQP), was introduced later under Recurrent AQP/ATQP programs ben- This elevated the importance of leader- training program that allows smaller (bounced landing, icing and crosswinds
EASA. efited from FOQA by leveraging line-data ship, communication, situational aware- These ab-initio programs provide an operators to adopt data-driven, com- on takeoff).
analysis to improve training outcomes. ness and decision making by providing a effective way to train high-quality pilots petency-based training.
AQP and ATQP allowed the industry framework to develop and assess pilots. in a line-flying environment. The first
to leverage line-flying experience to The majority of airlines training under MPL graduates are now successful
inform and improve training. AQP programs today have FOQA and captains.
data analysis capabilities. Regulated training increasingly
Airlines were now able to modify their
training programs to address their leverages the use of data and
unique operational requirements.
competencies to improve
Today, over 80% of airline pilots in the
US are training under an AQP. training outcomes.
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Drivers of airline
Part II pilot demand
Pilot demand is driven by the overall demand
for commercial flights, how these flights are
crewed and the need to replace pilots exiting
the workforce.
Over the next 10 years, the International Air Airlines today are flying commercial aircraft
Transport Association (IATA) forecasts 4.2% at high load factors and utilization rates to
annual passenger growth and a market of maximize revenues and reduce unit operat-
4.8 billion air passengers by 2027 – that’s ing costs. To meet the expected rise in pas-
an additional 1.6 billion passengers. Along senger numbers and city-pairs, the world’s
with passenger growth, IATA reports that airlines have placed record orders for new
the number of unique city-pairs has roughly generation commercial aircraft and the larg-
doubled in the past 20 years to over 18,000. est commercial aircraft manufacturers are
If this trend continues, the number of city- operating at high production rates.
pairs will exceed 25,000 by 2027, requiring
additional aircraft to serve these new routes. By 2027, we expect the global commercial
fleet to grow by 12,000 aircraft to roughly
37,000 aircraft. Over the next 10
years, IATA forecasts
City-pairs ActiveActive
commercial that passenger trips
Passengertrips*
Passenger trips City-pairs
with direct flights** commercial aircraft***
aircraft
will grow by 4.2%
annually.
4.8B 25K 37K
18K
3.2B 25K
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Pilot/aircraft ratios
The number of pilots required per aircraft
is primarily determined by aircraft
utilization and related regulations.
All commercial aircraft require at least one Wide-body jets (typically 220-plus seats) are
licensed captain and a second pilot, who is primarily used for longer range non-stop
either a captain or first officer, in the cockpit. domestic and intercontinental routes. New
generation aircraft are enabling airlines to
To maximize aircraft utilization, airlines need profitably link more distant mid-sized city-
to adequately crew their aircraft. The majority pairs with non-stop services. These more
of today’s airlines fly fleets of regional aircraft, fuel-efficient wide-body aircraft can fly more
narrow-body jets and wide-body jets to serve than 15 hours non-stop and require the
a variety of short-, medium- and long-range addition of relief pilots to meet regulations
routes with aircraft size and seat capacity and reduce crew fatigue.
optimized to match passenger demand.
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Pilot retirement and attrition
Most national regulators impose a mandatory retirement age of 65 for airline
pilots. Other reasons for leaving the workforce include early retirement, the
pursuit of a non-flying career, loss of medical fitness, etc.
Years
18 | CAE AIRLINE PILOT DEMAND OUTLOOK: 10-YEAR VIEW CAE AIRLINE PILOT DEMAND OUTLOOK: 10-YEAR VIEW | 19
CAE 10-year
Part III forecast
CAE’s Airline Pilot Demand Forecast is based on
a model that considers key drivers, variables and
trends to forecast the number of pilots we expect
airlines to hire over the next 10 years. The fore-
cast covers four regions - the Americas, Europe,
the Middle East and Africa, and Asia-Pacific.
10-year airline pilot demand forecast* 10-year airline captain demand forecast*
150K 440K
Additional Active pilots
pilots
for growth
180K
290K 105K
] i New captains
W h
2017-2027
pilot demand
jetBlue
2017-2027
pilot demand
24 | CAE AIRLINE PILOT DEMAND OUTLOOK: 10-YEAR VIEW CAE AIRLINE PILOT DEMAND OUTLOOK: 10-YEAR VIEW | 25
Europe
easyJet
• 50,000 new pilots needed
• 36,000 new captains needed The Generation easyJet Pilot
• Demand split between growth Training Programme is an
and attrition replacement umbrella for multiple pilot
• Young airline pilot workforce sourcing pathways includ-
ing Multi-Crew Pilot License
(MPL) and Airline Transport
Pilot License (ATPL). Since
The European region includes Western European airlines typically hire new pilots 2011, easyJet has been se-
Europe, Eastern Europe, Russia and the
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
directly from cadet programs, without requir-
ing a stint in the ‘regionals’ as in the United
50K lecting candidates to partici-
pate in CAE’s MPL program
States. Europe’s rapidly growing LCCs support and, upon graduation, these
Europe is expecting slower traffic growth pilot creation programs and have developed cadets become co-pilots
given geopolitical uncertainties, such as the partnerships with airline-focused pilot train- with easyJet. In parallel,
departure of the United Kingdom from the ing organizations. LCCs in particular are 2017 pilot population easyJet also selects cadets
European Union, as well as lower economic open to employing cost-effective solutions 2027 forecasted pilot who have graduated from
growth in certain countries. to recruit the top self-sponsored graduates population CAE’s ATPL program, who
of professional pilot programs. then receive a narrow-body
As the LCC business model continues to ex- 2017-2027 jet type-rating prior to flying
pand, several airlines are moving their aircraft Fast-growing LCCs will need to rapidly ad- pilot demand as an easyJet co-pilot. CAE
and aircrew bases to airports in countries vance first officers to captain positions while has trained over 500 such
they serve. This is shifting the demand for ensuring they acquire the skills to effectively cadets to date and helped
and creation of pilots to these areas. master critical situations. European LCCs will provide an additional 100
also hire pilots of different nationalities and type-ratings for licensed
European airlines will renew their fleets with cultures to increase the diversity of their pilots.
new generation fuel-efficient narrow-body talent pool and support their hubs.
and wide-body aircraft to reduce operating Ryanair
costs and meet Europe’s tough environmen-
tal standards. In 2016, CAE and Ryanair
Low-cost carriers employ a growing celebrated the type-rating of
their 2,000th Ryanair cadet.
share of the 70,000 airline pilots active With a large network of bas-
es, Ryanair needs a diverse
in the Europe region. pilot workforce consisting
of individuals who speak
many languages. Through a
rigorous screening process,
CAE and Ryanair are able to
train and recruit the quality
pilots they need.
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Middle East and Africa
flydubai
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Asia-Pacific
Indigo
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Part IV Moving forward
As the air transport industry prepares to address
the travel needs of the next decade, we must col-
lectively forge a strategy to ensure we have the
mission-ready pilots our industry requires. This
includes creating innovative and proactive devel-
opment pathways and training systems enabling
first officers to become competent captains.
A thorough screening and selection process Airlines are also developing programs to
performed early in the training process has tap into an underrepresented labour pool
proven to be very successful in identifying – female pilots. These programs encourage
candidates with the right mix of language young women to consider an aviation career
proficiency, flying skills and attitude to evolve and provide airline sponsorship for flight
into high-quality pilots. training. Women currently represent less
than 5% of airline pilots.
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Developing tomorrow’s
airline pilots AirAsia
While onboarding 255,000 new first officers, In 2016, AirAsia and CAE
launched the validation
the industry also needs to transition 180,000 phase of its Next Generation
Training System. Leveraging
pilots into captains by 2027. years of training innovation,
this next breakthrough in
pilot training is supported
The aviation industry continues to raise the Emerging training and technology innova- by advanced data collection
bar for pilot training and increase its expec- tions that integrate training data with line and analysis techniques. This
tations of pilots. At the same time, we’re performance data can help build such an system promises to improve
seeing much faster promotions to captain. approach. training quality and efficiency
by integrating untapped da-
A few years ago, it was common to see a ta-driven insights into train-
co-pilot spend eight to ten years working Adaptive ing. This next-generation
in the right seat before becoming captain. training provides an objec-
Today, first officers are given the opportunity training delivery: tive evaluation of pilot skills
to upgrade with much less seniority than in and elevates the standard
the past. In fact, it’s not uncommon to see a By providing an instructor with data-driven by which they are trained.
pilot taking full command of an aircraft after training insights, the instructor can adapt the
only a few years as a co-pilot. This steeper training session to be more effective. This
pilot learning curve places additional stress yields tools the instructor can leverage to
on the current training system. It’s becoming objectively assess pilot performance. Through
a challenge to train to the new standards in a better understanding of the pilot’s profile,
the time allocated. As a result, the need for the instructor is able to adapt training and
remedial training is increasing. delivery to better address the competency
gaps. A word of caution: not all senior pilots
Although remedial training is a valid mitiga- are effective instructors. We must look for
tion tactic, it impacts operations as pilots are instructors with the right mix of teaching and
removed from line flying to undergo addition communication skills to ensure we provide
training. To adapt to today’s realities and the most effective training.
ensure pilot readiness, we must improve
training effectiveness.
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