Urbanization Migration, and Vietnam Spatial Structure

Urbanization, Migration, and Vietnam's Spatial Structure
Author(s): Dean FORBES

Source: Sojourn: Journal of Social Issues in Southeast Asia, Vol. 11, No. 1 (April 1996), pp. 24-51
Published by: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS)
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/41056926
Accessed: 04-12-2015 19:48 UTC
Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at http://www.jstor.org/page/
info/about/policies/terms.jsp
JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content
in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship.
For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org.
Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS) is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Sojourn:
Journal of Social Issues in Southeast Asia.
http://www.jstor.org
This content downloaded from 146.201.208.22 on Fri, 04 Dec 2015 19:48:40 UTC
All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
SOJOURN Vol. 11, No. 1 (1996), pp. 24-51
Urbanization, Migration,
and Vietnam's Spatial Structure
Dean FORBES
Duringthe war years fromthe mid-1960s to the mid-1970s the urbani-

zation process in NorthVietnamwas stifledas cities were evacuated
to minimizedamage frombombing.Incontrast,inthe South the urban
areas grew rapidly as people fled the fightingin the villages.
Reunification of the countrybroughtabout a shrinkingof the largest
southerncities,as residentswere repatriatedor sent to new economic
zones. Fromthe mid-1970s to the early 1980s Vietnam'stotal urban
populationremainedstatic beforebeginningto increase slowlyin the
latterhalfofthe 1980s. The rateof urbanizationhas accelerated inthe
firsthalfofthe 1990s, thoughthe available statisticsdo notreflectthis.
Inthe inter-censalperiod(1979-89) the smallercities grewfasterthan
the largerones, while most inter-provincial migrationoccurred from
Northto South. Unemployment is provingto be a key probleminViet-
nam's growingcities.Vietnam'seconomic reformsrequirea morefluid
labourmarketwithfewerrestrictions on labourmobility.Gradually,these
needs are undermining the strategydesigned to contain urbanization,
forcingplanners to look to new trajectoriesforurban development.
Presentdiscussions focus on developingthe country'sthreemainur-
ban developmentcorridors.
Introduction
The readiness withwhichpeopledepartruralareasandmigrate totowns

andcitiesexposesfundamental processesofsocial,economic,andspa-
tialrestructuring.
It emphatically
dispels Arcadian
myths aboutbucolic
villagelife.Yetinrelatively
fewdeveloping countriesinthepost-World
WarII period,thedrift to thecitieshasbeenheldup. Vietnamis one
ofthem.In common withothersocialist suchas ChinaandCuba,
states,
measures havebeenenforced to controlurbanization and,in particu-
Urbanization,Migration,and Vietnam's Spatial Structure 25
lar,to containthegrowthof thelargercities.However,in recentyears

theimplementation of new economicstrategieshas resultedin the di-
lutionof previousstrictcontrolson urbangrowth.
For muchof thepost-1975 period,theflowof information on the
pattern of urbanizationin Vietnamhas been limited.1Consequently,
littleis knownabout the processof urbanizationbeyondthe overall
pictureofslowlygrowingcities.However,thepublicationoftheresults
ofVietnam's1989 PopulationCensus has made it possibleto consider
the main trends in urbanization and urban growthsince formal
reunification of thecountryin 1976.
Vietnam's Cities Before 1976
The coastalregionsofpresent-day Vietnamhaveforhundredsofyears

beenthesiteofcity-ports. In centralVietnam,Hoi An (Hai Pho), south
of Da Nang, becamewell knownthroughoutEast and SoutheastAsia
in the seventeenth and eighteenthcenturiesas the major portforthe
centralcoast (NguyenTan and Le Van Hao 1986).
Vietnam'spresentseat of government, Hanoi, has a long historyas
an importantadministrative centre.Originallycalled Thang Long -
"SoaringDragon"- it emergedas thecapitalofa feudalstatein 1010,
and retainedthatstatusuntilearlyin thenineteenth centurywhenthe
Nguyendynasty(1802-1945) chose to move the capitalto Hue (Tran
Quoc Vuong and Nguyen Vinh Long 1977). Saigon (or Gia Dinh) has
morerecentorigins.Settlements beganto appearin thevicinityof the
presentcity in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuriesas thecitybe-
to
gan emerge as an administrative outpostand centreoftrade(Ca Van
Thinhetal. 1976).
During the period of Frenchcolonial influence(1861-1945) the
countrywas dividedinto threeadministrative divisions.The southern
or
region(Nam Bo, Cochinchina)was ruleddirectlyby France.How-
ever,thecentralregion(TrungBo, orAnnam),thecapitalofwhichwas
Hue, and thenorthern region(Bac Bo, or Tonkin) weretreatedas pro-
tectorates.
Saigongrewas a centreofcolonialactivity, whileHanoi was
conqueredby the French in 1882 (Dinh Xuan Lam 1976; Beresford
1988).
26 Dean FORBES
Following theestablishment oftheDemocratic RepublicofVietnam

(DRVN), Hanoi was named itscapital,whileSaigonbecamecapitalof
theRepublic ofVietnam (RVN).MuchoftheRVN'sindustrial capacity
wasconcentrated inandaroundSaigon,particularly alongthecorridor
linkingthecitywithBienHoa. SaigonduringtheAmerican warwas,
by mostaccounts,characterized bywild,uncontrolled population
growth.Peoplepoured into the to
city escape the war. By theearly
1970sthepopulation oftheSaigonagglomeration climbedtobetween
4 millionand4.5 million(Thrift andForbes1986).The experience was
recorded bymanyoftheforeign inthecity,whoseaccounts
journalists
werefullofangstanda deepsenseofdislocation andalienation. Herr
(1977, p. 42) referred to Saigonas a "Californian corridorcut and
boughtandburneddeepintoAsia".
The experience ofcitiessuchas Da Nangparalleled thatofSaigon.
A majorAmerican militarybasewassituated on thesoutheastern edge
ofthecity.The economic stimulus ofthebase,together withtheforced
urbanization policiesofthemilitary, andtheinevitable dislocation due
to thewar,resulted inthecitygrowing rapidly.In 1964 ithad a popu-
lationtotalling149,000,butthisincreased to 500,000or600,000just
tenyearslater.It mayhavebeenmuchhigher, as thecurrent city'splan-
nerssuggest thatatitspeakitreached1 million. Whilethegrowth rates
oftheothermajorsouthern citieswerenotquiteas spectacular, most
doubledortripled theirpopulations duringthewar.Overall,theurban
population of South Vietnam grewquicklyuntiltheearly1970swhere
itpeakedat closeto 45 percentofthetotalpopulation(Figure1).
Hanoi'surbanization processwas altogether different, becausethe
experience ofwarfare intheNorthwasunlikein theSouth(Thrift and
Forbes1986).2Early1965,in anticipation ofthecommencement of
American bombing, Hanoibegantobe evacuated, a process steppedup
afterthebombing began. As a resultthe agglomeration'spopulation fell
fromaround900,000to around400,000.Withtheend ofbombing
raidsthecity'spopulation gradually builtup againinthelate1960sand
early1970s,untiltheresumption of airattacksin 1972 once more
forceditspartialevacuation.
Figure1
ofTotal Population,
UrbanPopulationas a Proportion
Northand SouthVietnam,1943-89
50-
■ NorthVietnam(DRV)
40- B South Vietnam(RV)
g D Vietnam(SRV)
<
c
I 30-
c
|
1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1 973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1989
Source:The period1943-79 is basedon datainThriftand Forbes(1986), pp. 89-90, 125; sources

fortheperiodsincethenare as in Table 2. From 1976 to 1989 theNorthis definedas provinces
northof,and including,Binh Tri Thicn. That provincehas sincebeen dividedinto three.
Although thestatistical
dataon urbanizationsincethe1940sisa little
uneven, some broad patterns consistentwith the processesdescribed
abovearerevealed.UnliketheSouth,wheretheurbanpopulationin-
creasedsignificantly,
in theNorththeproportion livingin urbanareas
remained static.In 1960around9.8 percentoftheNorthViet-
largely
namesepopulationlivedin urbanareas,whereasat unification in the
mid-1970s,it was stilljust 12 percent.The urbanareasoutsidethe
Hanoi agglomeration accountedfor59 percentoftheurbanpopula-
tionoftheNorthin 1960,and52 percentin 1976.Whileevacuation
in the1960sand early1970swasconfined to thelargestcities,unlike
in theSouththesmaller citiesstilldidnotgrowveryquickly.
28 Dean FORBES
The Post-UnificationExperience
A feelingofguardedoptimism,tingedwithuncertainty, pervadedViet-
namfollowing thecessationoffighting in SaigoninApril1975. Defacto
unificationof the countryoccurredimmediately, althoughtheformal
unification was not announceduntilthefollowingyear.Independence
and peaceweretheprimerewardsfortheVietnamese,buttherewas also
thepossibilityofwarreparations and overseasaid. However,thehopes
of theVietnamesewere(lashedin early1979 followingtheirinvasion
of Cambodia, and continuedbickeringand intransigence among the
major powers,particularly the United States,China, and Japan,en-
forcedVietnam'sisolationthroughto theearly1990s.
Vietnam's General StatisticalOfficeconducted its firstnational
populationcensusafterreunification on 1 October 1979. The results
ofthisexercisewereflawed,buttheyprovidesome base data forthede-
termination of trends.A second nationalcensuswas conductedon 1
April1989.3It consistedofa completeenumerationof thepopulation
on core questions,togetherwitha 5 per centsamplechosenformore
detailedquestioningabout issuessuch as fertility,mortality,and hous-
ing.
Vietnam'sregionaladministrative structureconsistsofa seriesoftiers
or geographical levels:theprovinces,
municipalities,and thespecialzone
ofVung Tau-Con Dao are themajorregionalunitsof administration;
thenextleveldown includesthedistricts, togetherwiththeprovincial
citiesand towns;finally therearesmalltowns,urbanprecincts, and rural
communes(Table 1).
Table 1
DivisionsofVietnam,1989
Administrative
Division
Administrative Number
Provinces (tinh) 44
Districts(huyen,quart) 467
Cities(thanhpho),towns(thixa) 70
Smalltowns(thitran) 351
Communes(xa)9precincts (phuong) 9,670
Source:
TongCueThongKe,NienGiamThong
A>(1989,1991),pp.5-6.
The definitionof urbanpopulationadopted in thecensusincludes

thefollowingsegments.First,thepopulationof districts(quan) inside
thecities(thanhphó)areincluded.The suburbanpopulationofthelarge
cities- thatis, theruralpeople livingin theurbanhinterlandbut ad-
ministered bythecity- is notconsideredurban.Second, thepopula-
tionlivingwithinthe towns(thixa) are countedin the urbanpopula-
tion.Third,smalltowns(thi tran)are consideredurbaniftheyhave a
populationof2,000 or over,50 percentor moreof thework-force are
in non-agricultural
sectors,and the town is an administrative
or indus-
trialcentreofa district4
(CentralCensusSteeringCommittee1990, p.
73).
Urbanization and Urban Population Growth
The 1970s werea decadeofturbulence in Vietnam.Populationgrowth

rateswerehigh(around2.7 percentperannum),5butwould havebeen
higherstill(possiblyin excessof 3 per centper annum) if not forthe
effectsofwarand large-scale international
emigration. Vietnam'spopu-
lationnumbered52.7 millionin 1979. Census resultsindicatea popu-
lationof 64 A millionin 1989, whichgivesan annual averagepopula-
tion growthrateover the decade of 2.22 per cent. Recognizingthat
continuedhighpopulationgrowthis an impedimentto social and eco-
nomicdevelopment, Vietnamseta populationgrowthtargetof 1.7 per
centby 1990, and 1.1 per centby 2000. Clearly,Vietnamhas fallen
shortofthistarget,butstatistics is on a downwardtrend
suggestfertility
(Hieben 1988; Hull 1990; Vu Quy Nhan and Hanenberg1989). De-
cision162 bytheCouncilofMinisters in October1988 enforceda series
ofpopulationand familyplanningmeasuresdesignedto steerVietnam
towardsthetargetpopulationgrowthrates.Includedamongthesemeas-
ureswas the requirement thatfamilieswho live in municipalities,
cit-
ies,or industrial
zones are permittedonlytwochildren(Banister1989,
p. 162).
At reunification,
Vietnamhad an urbanpopulationofjust over 10
million,or about 20.6 per centof the totalpopulation(Table 2). Be-
tweenthenand 1982 thecountry'surbanpopulationstagnated,drop-
pingto 18.5 per centof thetotalpopulation,beforeclimbingback to
30 Dean FORBES
19.8 per centin 1989.6 In otherwords,the levelof urbanpopulation

as a proportionof totalpopulationwas stillbelow thelevelachievedin
1976. However,ifwe look at populationgrowthratesovertheperiod
from1979 to 1989 thepatternbecomesmorecomplex.The totalpopu-
lationgrewat 2.1 per centperannumduringthatperiod.Calculating
rollingthree-year averagesof annual ratesof growth(Figure2). allows
us to see moreclearlythemaintrendsacrosstheperiod.Untiltheearly
1980s thetotalpopulationgrowthrateexceeded2 percentperannum,
butdroppedbelowthatbench-mark in 1984 and has fallenlowersince.
This is consistentwiththeincreasedfinancialand moralsupportthat
has beengivento familyplanningprogrammes in Vietnamthroughthe
1980s. Acrossthewholeperiodtheruralpopulationincreasedatjust 1.9
per cent(thatis, below thenationalgrowthrate).
Table 2
UrbanPopulationofVietnam,1976-89
Total Urban Urban

Population Population Population
Year ('000) ('000) (%)
1976 49,160 10,127 20.6
1977 50,413 10,108 20.1
1978 51,421 10,130 19.7
1979(census) 52,462 10,094 19.2
1980 53,722 10,301 19.1
1981 54,927 10,223 18.6
1982 56,170 10,363 18.5
1983 57,373 10,981 19.1
1984 58,653 11,102 18.9
1985 59,872 11,360 19.0
1986 61,109 11,817 19.3
1987 62,452 12,271 19.7
1989(census) 64,412 12,737 19.8
1990 66,233 13,218- 20.1
1991 67J74 13,619* 20.1
1992 69,405 13,285* 19.1
1993 70,982 13,647* 19.2
4The ofurbanareas.
registered
population
Source:TongCue ThongKe, "Tu lieudanso Vietnam"(1989),p. 15; Central
CensusSteering
Committee (1990);TongCue ThongKc (1994),p. 8.
Inter-censalurbanpopulationgrowthwas fasterthantotalpopula-
tiongrowthat 2.5 percentper annum.Given thatnaturalpopulation
growthin theruralareaswas fasterthanin theurbanareas,migration
mustaccountforthe different ratesof growth.The three-year rolling
averageof annual urban growth rates
produces an "S" curve(Figure2).
Therewas littleor no growthin thetotalurbanpopulationuntil1982,
thoughsincethenannualaveragegrowthrateshavefluctuatedbetween
2 and 3.5 per cent.Between1979 and 1989 the urbanpopulationin-
creasedby2,643,000,so on average,278,000 peoplewereadded to the
urbanareaseach year.Between1977 and 1981 the net changesin ur-
ban populationwereeithera smallincreaseor decrease.However,from
1982 onwardseach yearhas seen a netincrease,thoughtherearesome
Figure2
AnnualPopulationGrowthRates,1977-89
4t ! -
%~ *
/
/
/
/
1
Total
Urban
°'"-y Rural
-1-1 . , . . , , , 1 . 1 .
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
Source:As forTable 2
32 Dean FORBES
notablefluctuations, such as 1983, when thecountry'surbanpopula-

tion increasedby 618,000.
Because the annual estimatesof population growthare based on
surveysampling,theyneed to be treatedwith caution. Some of the
volatilityin theannualchangesin thetotalurbanpopulationareprob-
ablydue to problemswiththemethodsof estimation.Ratesof migra-
tion also have influencedannual figures,but it is not clearhow. And
finally,urbanboundariesareoccasionallyadjustedand newareasincor-
poratedinto existingtownsand cities.An exampleis Hue, which in-
creasedfromtenprecinctsin 1982 to eighteenin 1983. Hanoi also has
undergonemajorboundarychangesin 1960, 1978, and 1992.
The chieftrendsin theregionalpatternofurbanpopulationgrowth
between1979 and 1989 are of some interest(Figure3). The highest
ratesof urbanpopulationgrowthoccurredin Dae Lac and Lam Dong
provincesin thecentralhighlands,Vinh Phu and Ha Son Binh on the
westernoutskirts ofHanoi, andAn Giangprovincein theMekongdelta
region.The centralhighlandprovincesalso had higherratesof total
populationincreasethanmostpartsof thecountry.
InternalMigration
Internalmigrationpatternsin Vietnamare more constrictedthan in

otherSoutheastAsiancountries, basicallybecauseofbureaucraticrestric-
tions on freemovement.Neverthelesstheyare of some importance.
There have been two majorformsof internalmigration.One is spon-
taneousmigration, fromruralto urbanareas;theotheris planned
largely
movementsdue to resettlement schemes(Desbarats 1987).
The 1989 censushas a questionwhich asks in which districtand
provincerespondents, aged fiveyearsand over,livedfiveyearsbefore,
thatis,on thefirst ofApril1984. This has enableda crudemeasurement
to be made of net inter-provincial migrationbetween1984 and 1989.
It is expressedin Figure5 as numbersofmigrantsforevery1,000 non-
migrants.The measureignoresmultiplemigrations, or much circular
migration, but it does allow us to picturein- and out-migrationat the
provinciallevelbetween1984 and 1989.
Figure 3
UrbanPopulationChange,1979-89
*
618 Average fortwo years
6001 X/M;'
457 454
§|
400- W í/á^
300- ^4 258 vßAi/'
207 Sí W04fA $$>A
» A» 121
^I^»P^
100- -78
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
Year
Source:Data fromCentralCensus SteeringCommittee(1990), tables1.1, 1.2.
The nationalpicturerevealedby thisdata showsthat,by and large,

mostnorthern provincesexperiencednetout-migration,whilethema-
net
jorityof southernprovincesexperienced in-migration. With only
threeexceptions,all theprovincesfromNghia Binh and Già Lai-Kong
Turn northwere characterizedby net out-migration. The pocketsof
of - more than twentyout-migrants
highestintensity out-migration
per thousandnon-migrants- were located in the northeastof the
country(Cao Bang,Ha Tuyen),and on thecoastat Thai Binh and Ha
Nam Ninh (Figure4). In contrast,thesouthernprovincesweremuch
morelikelyto be characterizedby in-migration(Figure5). The high-
estproportionsof in-migration in
occurred thecentralhighlandprov-
incesof Dae Lac, Lam Dong, Song Be, and Dong Nai.
Some of thesepatternsare due to Vietnam'scontinuingefforts to
shiftpeople to new economiczones. Dae Lac province,in the central
highlands,has experiencedhighratesof both totaland urbanpopula-
Figure4
ofNet Out-Migration,
Provinces 1984-89
PROVINCES OF NET OUT MIGRATION

1984- 1989
Index
Migration
per000 non-migrants)
(migrants
□ Inmigration
ü Oto9 s
m -10to-19 <^}
■ -20 and below W /
Source:Data fromCentral Committee

CensusSteering III.3.
(1990),figure
Figure5
ofNet In-Migration,
Provinces 1984-89
PROVINCES OF NET IN MIGRATION

1984- 1989
MigrationIndex
(migrantsper 000 non-migrants)
□ Out migration
n oto9
m iotoi9
liiiHiJ
■ 20 and above IMÈÊ
Source:Data from
CentralCensusSteering
Committee III.3.
(1990),figure
36 Dean FORBES
tiongrowthas a resultofresettlement ofpeople largelyfromthenorth

of the country.It is estimatedthat350,000 people moved to thecen-
tralhighlandsduringthe1980s.The provincesofKien Giangand Minh
Hai, whichare locatedin thesoutherntoe ofVietnam,havealso expe-
riencedabove-averageratesof in-migrationand population growth.
These provincesare also thesitesof new economic zones whichhave
receivedconsiderablebackingfromthegovernment, althoughthishas
not includedadequate fundsforthe magnitudeof the task (Hieben
1989; FBIS-EAS-90-154 1990, p. 57).
The Large and Secondary Cities
The townsand citiescomprising theurbansystemareclassified byViet-

nam'sNationalInstituteofUrbanand RuralPlanningintofivecatego-
ries(Table 3). The two largestagglomerations - Hanoi and Ho Chi
-
Minh City bothhad populationswellin excessof 1 million,though
the actual citiescontain906,000 and 2.8 million,respectively. There
are also a couple of categorytwocities Da Nang and Hai Phong-
-
withpopulationsexceeding350,000. Withinthehierarchy therefollows
fourteenmediumcities,forty-eight towns,and ten small towns,fora
totalof seventy-six principalurban areas. In addition,of course,there
areseveralhundredmoresmalltownsdistributed throughout thecoun-
try(Table 1). The two-city and four-city urban primacy indices are
shownin Table 4. The main observationsto be noted are thatin the
year1989, 33 per centof theurbanpopulationlivedin Ho Chi Minh
City and Hanoi, and 40 per centof the urbanpopulationin the four
largestcities.Between1979 and 1989 the two-cityand four-city pri-
macy indiceseach declined by threepoints. The growth rate of thefour
largestcitiescombinedhas been 1.8 percentperannum.This is 0.3 per
centbelow the 2.1 per centper annum growthrateof the population
as a whole,and 0.7 percentbelowthenationalurbangrowthrate(Ta-
ble 5). Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh Cityare thedominantcentresofgov-
ernmentand commerce,respectively, in Vietnam,unlikecitiessuchas
Bangkok,Manila, and Jakartawheretheadministrative and economic
dominanceis combined.As a resultofthisand thegeneralcontainment
of theprocessof urbanizationin Vietnam,thereis much lessof an ur-
*
Table 3
CityClassification
Total
Size Population
Classification Range Number C000) Examples
Largecities >1 million 2 3,712 Ho Chi Minh,Hanoi
Secondary 350,000<x< 1 million 2 721 Da Nang,Hai Phong

Intermediate 100,000<x< 350,000 14 2,068 Can Tho, Nha Trang,
Hue, Nam Dinh
Towns 14,000<x< 110,000 48 2,299 Cam Pha,BuonMe
Thuot,VinhLong,
centres
provincial
Smalltowns 14,000<*< 25,000 10 188 VinhAn,TarnDiep,
PhuTho, district
towns
Source:Basedon datafromthe1989 Censusand theNationalInstitute

forUrbanand Rural
Hanoi,1991.
Planning,
banprimacy patternthanin otherpartsofSoutheast Asia.Of thetwo

major urban Hanoi
areas, was marked net
by out-migration whereasHo
Chi MinhCitywascharacterized bynetin-migration.Migrants toHa-
noiwerepredominantlyfrom thenorthern partsofthecountry,particu-
those
larly inland which
provinces a
share border withChina.Provinces
whichreceivednetout-migrants
fromHanoiwereclustered aroundthe
and
city, extendedtocentral
and southernVietnam. The main netsup-
pliersofmigrants
to Ho Chi MinhCityincludedHanoi as wellas the
fivesouthern whichringHo Chi MinhCity.Apartfroma
provinces
Table 4
UrbanPrimacy
Indices,1979-89
Primacy
Indices 1979 1982 1985 1989
Two-city 0.36 0.32 0.32 0.33
Four-city 0.43 0.40 0.40 0.40
Source:TongCueThongKe,"TulieudansoVietnam"
( 1989),p. 15; Cen-
tralCensusSteering
Committee
(1990).
38 Dean FORBES
Table 5
UrbanPopulationofLargestCities,1979 and 1989
Average
Annual
1979 1989 Change
No. ('000) ('000) (%)
Largecities:
>35O,OOO 4 4,302 5,084 1.8
Intermediate:
100,000<x< 350,000 14 1,866 2,068 1.1
Smallcities/towns:
< 110,000 400 3,947 5,585 3.7
Total urban 10,115 12,737 2.5

Total rural 42,368 50,630 1.9
Total population 52,742 64,412 2.1
Source:Central
CensusSteering (1983,1990);TongCue ThongKe (1989),p. 15.
Committee
solitarysouthernprovince- Lam Dong - and fourothersin thefar

northofthecountry,all otherprovincesin Vietnamwerecharacterized
by net migrationto Ho Chi Minh City.
With the data available it is veryhard to accuratelyestimatethe
numberof people unofficially in thecities.The National Institutefor
Urban and Rural Planninghave tentatively estimatedthe unofficial
urbanpopulationofVietnamas a whole in thelate 1980s at 300,000,
or approximately 2.4 per cent of the totalurban population.This is
almostcertainly an underestimation. Othersourceshavesuggestedthat
in 1989 therewereabout 100,000 unofficial residentsin Hanoi, or 9.2
per centof the city'stotalpopulation,and 300,000 in Ho Chi Minh
City (9.5 per cent). If thesenumbersare accuratetheyareverylow by
comparisonwith citiesin China. Tianjin, forinstance,a cityof 3.7
million,is estimatedto havea "floatingpopulation"of about one mil-
lion (Forbesand Wilmoth 1990, p. 164).
Hanoi's averagegrowthrateof 2.1 per centexceedsHo Chi Minh
City'srateof 1.7 percent(Table 7). This is a puzzle.The totalfertility
ratesin bothcitiesare lessthan3.1, well below the nationalaverageof
3.9, as would be expectedforlargecities.Ifmajorboundarychangesare
ruledout,thisleavesmigration to explainthedifferencein growthrates
'
betweenthetwo cities.However,themigrationdata suggestsnetout-

migrationfromHanoi, and net in-migrationto Ho Chi Minh City
(Figures4 and 5).
The analysisaboveonlyrefersto the"urban"populationofthemajor
cities,excludingthe ruralpopulationof the surroundinghinterland.
Despitethemaincities(Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City,Hai Phong)having
largeruralhinterlandsincorporatedinto the municipality,the inter-
censalgrowthratesof thesewerealso slow,averagingonly 1.3 percent
per annum (Table 6). In otherwords,on the evidenceavailablethere
does not seem to have occurreda crowdingof peasantsinto the rural
areassurroundingthe largestcities,in orderto take advantageof the
growthofprivateurbanmarketsforruralproduce,as has happenedin
China. However,travellingin theruralhinterland
surroundingthemain
citiesproducesample evidenceof a kindof ruralprosperity.Most vil-
lages and communeshave considerablebuildingactivityunderway
withinthem.
IntermediateCities and the Towns
Vietnam'ssmalland intermediate urbancentresincreasedtheirshareof

theurbanpopulationbetween1979 and 1989 from57 to 60 per cent
(Table 4). This is theoutcomeofan inter-censal
growthrateof2.9 per
centperannum,whichis considerably fasterthaneitherthetotalpopu-
lation growthrate(2.1 per cent) or the rateof increaseof the larger
Table 6
PopulationofRuralHinterland
ofMajorCities
Average
Annual
1979 1989 Change
City C000) ('000) (%)
Ho Chi MinhCity 719 765 0.7
Hanoi 1,673 1,968 1.7
Hai Phong 893 992 1.1
Total ruralpopulation 3,285 3,725 1.3
Source:As forTable5.
40 Dean FORBES
urban centres(1.8 per cent), or the ruralpopulation (1.9 per cent).

However,thereis a noticeabledifference betweentheintermediate cit-
ies, whichin aggregategrewat just 1.1 per cent per annum,and the
smallercitiesand towns,whichhad an inter-censal growthrateof 3.7
per cent per annum.
The factthat thereare wide differences in growthratesbetween
towns(Table 7) is ratherdifficult to explain,and castsdoubt on the
overalltrend.Amongthefourteenintermediate citiesthehighestrates
ofgrowthareforPhanThiet (capitalofThuan Hai province)and Vung
Tau, whichgrewby 4.5 percentand 4.4 per centper annum,respec-
tively.Both are sitedalong thecoast of southernVietnam,east of Ho
Chi Minh City.Vung Tau is thebase foroffshore oil and gas explora-
tion,and has some potentialas a touristdestination.It is also linkedto
Ho Chi Minh City by a corridorof investmentand growth.Other
southerncoastal citiesincludingQui Nhon and Nha Trang, and the
imperialcityof Hue, also grewat ratesin excessof 2.3 per cent per
annum. In the case of Hue the alterationof cityboundarieshas been
one factorcontributing to itsgrowth.It is worthnotingthatall ofthese
citiesare in thesouthernhalfof thecountry.
The northern citiesofVinh and Thai Nguyen(Bac Thai province)
have had negativeratesof growth.Vinh is the capital of Nghe Tinh
provincein the centralnorth.It is a poor area witha traditionof dis-
sent,and populationgrowthratesbelow theaverage.In contrast,Thai
Nguyenis locatedto thenorthofHanoi, on theedge of theRed River
plain.The overallpopulationgrowthratein theprovinceis high,and
thoughit is an area of net out-migration, the level is not particularly
high.
It is a puzzle as to whyBien Hoa has had negativeurbangrowth.
Located30 kilometres to thenortheastofHo Chi Minh City,Bien Hoa
is an establishedindustrialcity,thecapitalof Dong Nai province,and
partofthegrowthcorridorlinkingHo Chi Minh Cityand Vung Tau.
Equallypuzzlingis thefactthattheMekongdeltacitiesofLongXuyen,
My Tho, and Can Tho grewslowlyat between0.3 and 1.8 percentper
annum.
The analysisthus farfocuseson the inter-censalperiod (that is,
Table 7
PopulationofMain Cities,1979 and 1989
Annual
Growth
City 1979 1989 Rate(%)
Ho Chi MinhCity* 2,700,849 3,169,135 17
Hanoi" 897,500 1,088,862 2.1
Hai Phong" 385,210 456,049 1.7
Da Nang 318,653 370,067 1.6
Nha Trang 172,663 213,687 2.3
Hue 165,710 211,085 2.6
Can Tho 182,856 208,326 1.3
Nam Dinh 160,179 165,649 0.4
Qui Nhon 127,211 160,091 2.5
LongXuyen 112,485 132,628 1.8
Thai Nguyen 138,023 126,066 -1.0
Hong Gai 114,573 123,073 0.8
BienHoa 187,254 122,610 -4.4
VungTau. 81,694 122,439 4.4
PhanThiet 75,241 114,041 4.5
Vinh 159,753 110,652 -3.8
MyTho 101,493 104,848 0.3
DaLat 87,136 102,760 1.8
4
Agglomeration,includingthecity.
Source:CentralCensus SteeringCommittee(1983, 1990).
1979-89)inVietnam, forwhichthebest-qualitydataisavailable.
Since
thecensus,Vietnam'surbanizationratehascontinued toaccelerate.The
visibleevidenceofthisprocessincludescontinued growth in thesup-
plyoflabourto urbaneconomicactivities, suchas thexyclo(trishaw),
andthegrowth of,forexample,squatterhousinginHanoiandHo Chi
MinhCity.Untilthenextcensus,however, thedetailedstatistical
data
toprovidequantitativesupportwillremain scant.According to official
Vietnam's
publications, urbanpopulationin 1993hadincreased to 13.6
million,whichisjust19.2 percentofthetotalpopulation, lowerthan
in 1989.However, thisisa measureoftheregisteredurbanpopulation,
whichis considerablylowerthantheactualurbanpopulation. As a re-
sult,post-censusurbanpopulation statistics
needto be treatedwitha
good deal ofcaution.
42 Dean FORBES
Urban EmploymentProblems
Althoughthepace of urbanizationin Vietnamhas been slow,a short-

age of resourceshas meantthereis a backlogof urbanproblemsawait-
ingtreatment. Top priorityissuesincludehousing,transport, water,and
employmentproblems. The fidi list is much longer, and includes the
need forthe rehabilitation of the historicalareas of citiessuch as Ha-
noi (Reutersward1987; Cunliffe1988). In thissectionI will consider
in more detail the employmentproblemin Vietnam, because it has
majorimplicationsforthepatternof urbanization.
Vietnamis estimatedto have had a totallabour forceof 32.7 mil-
lionin 1993. Nearlythree-quarters and theshare
ofthatis in agriculture,
oftheagricultural component is still
growing.Industry's share ofthela-
bour forcehas remainedconstantaroundthe 10 per centmark,about
a thirdofwhichis state-sector employment.Overall,thestatesector's
shareof totalemployment, whichhad risento 15.3 per centin 1980,
had droppedback to 14.3 per cent in 1987 and 9.5 per centin 1993
(Tong Cue Thong Ke 1994, pp. 16-17). The statesector,though,is
moreimportantin thecities.In Hanoi, forinstance,39 percentofthe
work-force in thelate 1980s was in thestatesector,comparedwith54
per centin co-operatives and 5.8 per centin the privatesector.
Vietnam'slabourforceis growingat about 4 per centper annum,
therefore addingabout 1 millionnewentrants to thelabourmarketeach
year.It is estimatedthatin 1987 and 1988 about a millionnewprivate
and co-operativesectorjobs werecreated,but therewas no growthin
thestatesector.An officialestimateput thenumberof unemployedin
Vietnamat six million,or 20 per centof the labourforce{FBIS-EAS-
90-165, 1990, p. 58; Asian DevelopmentBank 1989, p. 99; Banister
1989, p. 157).
Most labourforcegrowthis beingfedby the usual domesticproc-
essesincludingpopulationgrowth,changinglabourforceparticipation
rates,and structural economicchange.However,international events
also have an impactin Vietnam.The changesunderway in Eastern
Europehaveresultedin therepatriation ofVietnameselabourers.In the
wake of its dissolution,East Germanycancelledthe contractsof over
'
20,000Vietnamese workers (theVietnamese employedtheretotalled

60,000),whileanother 24,000returned fromBulgaria and40,000from
whatwas thenCzechoslovakia, swellingthe ranks of theskilledand
semi-skilled in searchofjobs (FBIS-EAS-90-165,1990, p. 38). The
withdrawal oftheVietnamese from Cambodiaspurred thegovernment's
programme ofdemobilizing 800,000soldiers. However,theproblems
offinding employment for them slowed the pace oftheprogramme,
with500,000beingreleasedbetween1988 and 1990 (FBIS-EAS-90-
165, 1990,p. 58; Indochina Chronology, 1990,p. 10; Hiebert1989,p.
21).
Although unlikely toreachthesamemagnitude, thegrowing number
ofVietnameserefugees from
returning campsthroughout and East
Southeast Asiahasfuelleddemandfornewjobs. Returnees underthe
auspices of the United Nations High Commission for Refugees
(UNHCR) programme havebeensupported by a modest cash grantto
thegovernment toassistintheirresettlement. A slow-down inrepatria-
tionfollowing theendoftheGulfWar,andan increase in out-migra-
tionfromVietnam,is attributed to rumours ofjobs forVietnamese
refugees in the reconstruction ofKuwait.
Domestically, thereform ofVietnam's socialistsystem willcontinue
to havea significant impact on theway in which labour markets oper-
ate.The continued stagnation ofemployment in thestatesector, com-
binedwiththeshedding oflabourbysomestateenterprises, willincrease
theneedfortheprivate andco-operative sectors to generatemoreem-
ployment. This is an issue that concerns
currently theurban planners.
Presently inplacessuchas Hanoi,theinformal sector(whichisvery
hardto distinguish fromtheprivate sector)hastakenon an important
roleinsoakingup surplus labour.Butthisisveryrecent, havinglargely
occurredsince1988. Therewas nota traceof an informal sectorin
Hanoi duringmyvisittherein November1983. It is estimated that
therearenowseveral hundred xyclo(ortrishaws) in thecity,largelyrid-
denbypeoplefromtheruralareassurrounding Hanoi,whoshift tothe
city forthe duration of the off-season.Coffee shops and cafes,sitedon
thepavements, in smallfrontroomsor undertemporary awnings
in front yards abound in central Hanoi. are
Many operatedbystate-
44 Dean FORBES
sectoremployeeswho are in desperateneed of second incomes.

Justas thereis an urgentneed to createjobs in Vietnam,so indus-
trialand serviceenterprisesrequiresuppliesof skilledand experienced
staff.Industrialreformscan havelittleimpacton economicgrowthrates
unlessenterprise managersaregivenmorescope in recruiting thelabour
requiredbytheirenterprises. These needsaresimplynotconsistent with
strong controlson labourmarket mobilityand the containment of ur-
ban populations,or on currentstylesof urbanmanagement.Reforms
to themeansforcontrolling and mobilityoflabourare
thedistribution
therefore becomingincreasingly urgent(Le Dang Doanh 1991, p. 91).
Spatial Policy and Urbanization in Vietnam

In essence,Vietnam'spatternof urbanizationcan be attributedto the
combinedeffects of theprocessesand policiesrelatedto economicde-
velopmentand theirimpacton the ruraland urbanareas,and to the
consciousshapingby thegovernment of the country'surbanand spa-
tialstructure.The two are not necessarily compatible.
Afterreunification in 1976, thegovernment settledon an urbaniza-
tionstrategywhichemphasizedcontrolling thegrowthand distribution
ofpopulation(Dao Van Tap 1980; Forbes and Thrift1987). The first
aim ofthepost-reunification strategy was to deurbanize,thento main-
tainslowurbangrowth. This has been achievedwithoutquestion.Viet-
nam'surbanpopulationdeclinedin totalbetween1976 and 1979, then
forthenextdecade grewat about 2.5 percentperannum,whichcom-
paresmorethanfavourably withtheSoutheastAsianaverage,whichhas
4
hoveredjust under per centthroughthedecade. However,Vietnam
remainsfarlessurbanizedthananyotherSoutheastAsiancountry, with
the possible exception of Cambodia and Laos (Jones 1988; United
Nations CentreforHuman Settlements1987).
The second objectiverequiredcontainingthe growthof the larger
urbanareasthroughcontrolling employment and theuse ofresidential
permits,with the aim of converting the so-called"consumer"citiesof
the south into leaner"producer"cities.There is littledoubt thatthis
strategyhas also provedeffective in Vietnam,at leastin termsof con-
"
trollingpopulation growth. The inter-censal growth ratesforHo Chi

MinhCity,Hanoi,Hai Phong,andDa Nangaverage1.8 percentper
annum, withnolargecityexceeding 2.1 percentperannum.Theserates
areverylowbyAsianstandards. Comparable Indonesian citiessuchas
and
Jakarta UjungPandang have grown at rates in excess of3 percent
perannum.
Thereareseveralreasonswhythesestrategies havebeensuccessful
inVietnambutnotinotherSoutheast Asiancountries. The residential
cardsnecessary to legallytakeup residence in citiesareimportant. So
tooareration cards, whichentitle to
people purchase subsidized riceand
otheressential foods.As well,thecontroloftheallocationofjobs is a
powerful tool,as therelatively smallsizeoftheprivateand informal
sectorshasinthepastmadealternative employment hardtofind.How-
ever,these conditions aredisintegrating (subsidized foodis no longer
available,and thegovernment's abilityto providejobs is in sharpde-
cline),leavingfuture trendsopento speculation.
The thirdobjective focusedon enhancing thedevelopment ofthe
smallercitiesand townssuchas thedistrict and provincial capitals,
the
improving linkages between the rural areas and the small towns.
Thoughthepromotion ofthesmalltownshasbeenfarfromeffective,
inpartduetofinancial constraints,thepopulation figures suggest other-
-
wise.The smallercitiesand towns thosewithpopulationsunder
110,000- havesucceededingrowing ata significantly fasterrate(3.7
percent)thanthelarge(1.8 percent)or intermediate cities(1.1 per
cent),and have therefore increased their share ofthe totalurbanpopu-
lation.Thisisagainst thetrend intherestofSoutheast Asia.Citiesunder
onemillionhavea declining shareoftheurbanpopulation throughout
theregion(UnitedNationsCentreforHuman Settlements 1987).
However, thegrowth performance of the intermediate citiesseems out
ofstepwiththisoveralltrend.
Therearetensions between thegoalsoftheurbanization strategyand
thekindsofeconomicreforms increasingly beingputin placeinViet-
nam(Beresford de
1991; Vylder et al. 1988;Vo NhanTri 1990).The
urbanoutcome,at leastas faras can be determined fromthepopula-
tiondatapresented in theanalysis above, reflects the prioritiesin the
46 Dean FORBES
urbanstrategies. littleevidenceof any

thereis relatively
Interestingly,
of
changes population distributiondue to economicreform, although
the
disaggregating data by time the
periodsuggests pattern will alter
throughthepresentdecade.
Future Population Growth and Urban Strategy
Vietnam's fifthfive-yearplan ran from1991 to 1995, and a socio-

economicdevelopmentstrategy has been developedthroughto theyear
2000 (FBIS-EAS-90-131,1990, p. 56). The 1996-2000 medium-term
plan is scheduledto be presentedto the7th CommunistPartyofViet-
nam Congressearlyin 1996. Not unexpectedly, opinionsare divided
about futurepatternsofurbanpopulationgrowth.It is recognizedthat
thereis a surplusof labourin ruralareas,and thereis a commonper-
ceptionthatlabouringin theruralareasis a veryhardlife.Thereis also
a perceptionthatlivingconditionsin thecityare better.However,ur-
ban unemployment problemsare also serious,as discussedearlier.The
net resultis thatthereis pent-updemandfrompeople to moveto ur-
ban areas. The differences of opinion stem fromuncertaintyabout
whetherto let thishappen or not.
Vietnameseplannersare currentlyre-thinking theirapproach to
urbandevelopment(National Instituteof Urban and Rural Planning
1992). An overallnationalurbanstrategy was completedin 1994 and
is underconsiderationby thegovernment. This overallstrategywould
includeguidelinesforspecificurbaninfrastructure projectsto be devel-
oped. The Vietnameseemphasiswithina socialisturbanstrategy is on
the equal allocationof resources,on a per capitabasis,between cities.
However,thisis not feasible,and itwillbe necessaryto concentrate on
a limitednumberof centres.But thereare different views and debates
about socialistplanningbeing canvassed.It is readilyadmittedthat
Vietnamis havingtroubleadjustingfromwartimeto peacetime,and the
uncertainty ofnationalpoliciesis compoundingtheproblemofformu-
latingurbanstrategies.
Not surprisingly,plannerssee a need to focusurbandevelopment,
at thenationallevel,on thethreemain regionsin thecountry.Priority
shouldbe given,in theirview,to theurbancentresalong thecoast,es-

peciallythoseconnectedto the major ports.First,priorityshould be
givento thesouthernMekong deltaregion,encouragingthe develop-
mentof agricultural exportsand strengthening the linksbetweenHo
Chi Minh City, Bien Hoa, and the pon cityof Vung Tau, a region
referredto as theSouthernEconomicFocal Zone. Second,thereshould
be a concentration on the mineral-and population-rich northernRed
Riverdelta region,facilitatingthe export-producing capacityof this
region and improving thelinksbetween Hanoi and theportcityofHai
Phong. Third, prioritywould be givento the centralregion,centred
aroundthe Da Nang-Hue-Nha Trangcorridor.These citiesare con-
nectedto naturalresources,havegood stocksofskilled,low-costlabour,
and the added potentialof a touristcentre.The airportat Da Nang
could be upgradedto internationallevel,and foreigninvestmentat-
tractedto the region.
Vietnam'sprovincialcitiesalso need to be strengthened and their
infrastructure improved.Small towns(such as distria centres),which
have importantlinkswithagriculture are also not well developed,al-
thoughthishas been a policyobjectiveformanyyears.
Conclusion
In commonwiththeircounterparts in thecapitalist
world,mostsocialist
planners would preferthaturbanization process took place gradually,
and the urbanmigrants, who now flockto the largemetropolitanar-
eas, divertedto the intermediatecitiesand thesmalltowns.The criti-
cal differencebetweencapitalistand socialistplannershas notbeen one
ofideology,buta reflectionofthemeansavailableto put intoeffect their
Socialistplannershave had, at leastup untilnow, moreef-
strategies.
fectivemeansavailableto themto controlthe distribution of popula-
tion thantheircapitalistcounterparts.
Now, however,manyofthesemeasuresarebeingput aside in Viet-
nam,fostering a growingtensionbetweenthegoalsoftheurbanization
strategyand the kindsof economicreformsincreasingly beingput in
place. The urbanoutcomestilllargelyreflects the prioritiesin the ur-
48 Dean FORBES
But the pace of economicand politicalreformwill in-

ban strategies.
evitably overtake futureurbanplans and populationprojections.Be-
tween1979 and 1986 Vietnamembarkedhesitatingly on a processof
reform, which it affirmedand strengthenedbetween1986 and 1988.
Yet overallthishas been called a period of transition(Fforde1991).
Since 1988 the shape of futureeconomicstrategies has seen Vietnam
movingirrevocably towardsa mixed economy and an "open-door"strat-
egy,albeitmanagedby the CommunistParty.This is bound to have
profoundconsequencesforthe urbanizationprocess.As a result,it
would not be inappropriate to speculatethatVietnam'surbansystem
willbe significandydifferentat theend ofthecenturyto whatit is now.
NOTES
* I am
gratefulto Robin Grau of the Departmentof Human Geography,Research
School of PacificStudies,theAustralianNational University,
who preparedFigures
3, 4, and 5 usingARC-INFO; Ian Heywood fordrawingthe figures;and Alice Bass
at FlindersUniversityforher help withrevisionsto the manuscript.
1. On Vietnameseurbanizationsee Thriftand Forbes(1986) and Forbes,"Economic
Reformand the Urban Networkin Vietnam" (1995).
2. Detailed accountsof what Hanoi, or any of the othernortherncities,werelike at
thistimeare scarce.
3. A volumecomprisingnineteenbasic tables,in Vietnamese,English,and Russian,
based on the 1979 censuswas publishedin 1983 as Ban Chi Dao Tong Dieu Tra
Dan So Trung Uong, Dan So VietNam 1-10-1979. A numberof majorvolumes
have been releasedfromthe 1989 census. See the CentralCensus SteeringCom-
mittee(1990). It containsan overviewof theconductof thecensus,togetherwith
basic tablesfromthe 5 percentcensussample,witha textin Vietnameseand Eng-
lish.
4. The 1989 definitionappears to correspondwiththe definitionused in 1979, al-
thoughthe latteris not presentedin detail. However,some townsand citiesun-
derwentboundarychangesthataffectedtheirurban population,but clear infor-
mationon thisis not available.
5. Growthratesare calculatedin the followingway:
log,(P2//>l)
Rate=
n
Note that the 1979 census was conducted in October, and the 1989 census in
April.The inter-censalperiod (n) is therefore nine yearsand six months.
6. Time seriesstatisticsare based on registration
data revisedaccordingto theresults
of annualsamplesurveys.Thereforeit mightbe expectedtheyare less reliablethan
censusdata. Overall,theestimatedrateof urbangrowthbetween1979 and 1987
was 2.5 per centper annum,whereasthecensusestablishedthe figure(forthepe-
riod 1979-89) as 2.48 per centper annum,a negligibledifference.However,the
correspondencewas not as good at theregionallevel.In the case of Ho Chi Minh
City,annual statisticsunderestimated urban growth.The estimatedgrowthrate
between 1979 and 1985 was -0.9 per cent,some 2.5 per cent below the census
figure.In contrast,the annual seriesoverestimated the population of Hanoi. The
census growthratewas 1.9 per centper yearbelow the annual estimate.
REFERENCES
Asian DevelopmentBank. Asian DevelopmentOutlook.Manila, 1989.

Ban Chi Dao Tong Dieu Tra Dan So Trung Uong. Dan So VietNam 1-10-1979.
Hanoi, 1983.
Banister,J.L. "Vietnam'sEvolvingPopulation Policies". ProceedingsoftheInterna-
tionalPopulationConference^ pp. 155-58. New Delhi: InternationalUnion for
the ScientificStudyof Population, 1989.
Beresford,M. Vietnam:Politics,Economicsand Society.London: Pinter,1988.
"The ImpactofEconomic Reformson theSouth". In DoiMoi: Vietnams
RenovationPolicyand Performance, editedby D.K. Forbes,T. Hull, D. Marr,
and B. Brogan,pp. 118-35. Politicaland Social Change Monograph no. 14.
Canberra:AustralianNational University,1991.
Ca Van Thinh,Ta Xuan Linh,and Huu Ngoc. "Old Saigon". Vietnamese Studiesno.
45 (1976): 5-32.
CentralCensus SteeringCommittee(Ban Chi Dao Tong Dieu Tra Dan So Trung
Uong). VietnamPopulationCensus- 1979: Sample Results[Tong Dieu Tra
Dan So Vietnam- 1979: Ket Qua Dieu Tra Ma]. Hanoi, 1983.
VietnamPopulationCensus- 1989: SampleResults[Tong Dieu Tra Dan
So Vietnam- 1989: Ket Qua Dieu Tra Ma]. Hanoi, 1990.
Cunliffe,S.K. "Shelterand Servicesforthe Poor in MetropolitanRegions: Urban
ServicesProvisionin Vietnam:An Overviewof Two Communities".Habitat
International12, no. 3 (1988): 41-52.
Dao Van Tap. "On theTransformation and New Distributionof Population in the
Socialist Republic of Vietnam". InternationalJournalof Urban and Regional
ResearchA, no. 4 (1980): 503-15.
50 Dean FORBES
de Vylder,S. and A. Fforde.Vietnam:An Economyin Transition, Stockholm:Swed-

ish InternationalDevelopmentAuthority,1988.
Desbarats,J."PopulationRedistribution in theSocialistRepublicofVietnam".Popu-
lationand DevelopmentReview13, no. 1 (1987): 43-76.
Dinh Xuan Lam. "From the French Conquest to 1930". VietnameseStudies45
(1976): 33-61.
Fforde,A. "The SuccessfulCommercialisationof a Neo-StalinistEconomic System
- Vietnam 1979-89: With a Postscript".In Doi Moi: VietnamsRenovation
Policyand Performance, edited by D.K. Forbes, T. Hull, D. Marr, and B.
Brogan,pp. 95-117. Political and Social Change Monograph no. 14. Can-
berra:AustralianNational University,1991.
Forbes,D.K. "Economic Reformand theUrban Networkin Vietnam".Environment
and PlanningA vol. 27 (1995): 793-808.
Forbes,D.K. and N.J.Thrift."TerritorialOrganization,Regional Developmentand
the City in Vietnam". In The SocialistThird World:Urban Developmentand
TerritorialPlanning,edited by D.K. Forbes and N.J. Thrift,pp. 98-128.
Oxford:Blackwell,1987.
Forbes,D.K. and D. Wilmoth."Urban Problemsand Planningin Tianjin". In Chi-
nas SpatialEconomy:RecentDevelopments and Reforms, editedbyG.J.R.Linge
and D.K. Forbes,pp. 160-80. Hong Kong: OxfordUniversityPress,1990.
ForeignBroadcasting Information Service,EastAsian Series(FBIS-EAS). Variousissues.
Herr, M. Dispatches. London: Picador, 1977.
Hiebert,M. "Two Is Enough". Far EasternEconomicReview142, no. 49 (1988): 32.
"Taking to the Hills". Far EasternEconomicReview144, no. 21 (1989):
42-43.
Hull, T. "The 1989 National PopulationCensus: FirstResultson Fertility, Marriage
and Mortality".AustralianDevelopmentStudiesNetworkBriefing Paper (Can-
berra)no. 16 (1990).
IndochinaChronology!^,no. 4 (1990): 10.
Jones,G.W. "UrbanizationTrendsin SoutheastAsia: Some IssuesforPolicy".Journal
ofSoutheastAsian StudiesXDi, no. 1 (1988): 137-54.
Le Dang Doanh. "Economic Renovationin Vietnam:Achievementsand Prospects".
In Doi Moi: VietnamsRenovationPolicyand Performance, edited by D.K.
Forbes,T. Hull, D. Marr,and B. Brogan.Political and Social Change Mono-
graphno. 14. Canberra:AustralianNational University,1991.
National Instituteof Urban and Rural Planning.National UrbanDatabook.Hanoi:
Ministryof Construction,1992.
Nguyen Tan and Le Van Hao. Hoi An: Old Town. Da Nang: Nha Xuat Ban Da
Nang, 1986.
Reutersward,L. "Vietnam".In HousingPolicyand Practicein Asia, edited by S.-K.
Ha, pp. 159-74. London: Croom Helm, 1987.
Thrift,N. and D. Forbes. The Priceof War: Urbanizationin Vietnam1954-1985.

London: Allen and Unwin, 1986.
Tong Cue Thong Ke (General StatisticalOffice).Nien Giam ThongKe [Statistical
yearbook].Hanoi: Nha Xuat Ban Thong Ke (StatisticalPublishingHouse),
variousissues.
"Tu lieu dan so Vietnam". Dan So Va Xa Hoi (Hanoi), 1989.
Tran Quoc Vuong and Nguyen Vinh Long. "Hanoi fromPrehistoryto the 19th
Century".Vietnamese Studies,no. 48 (1977), pp. 9-57.
UnitedNations CentreforHuman Settlements.GlobalReporton Human Settlements.
Oxford:OxfordUniversityPress,1987.
Vo Nhan Tri. VietnamsEconomicPolicySince 1975*Singapore:Instituteof South-
eastAsian Studies, 1990.
Vu Quy Nhan and R. Hanenberg. "The 1988 Demographic Surveyof Vietnam".
Asia-PacificPopulationJournalA, no. 3 (1989): 3-14.
Dean Forbes is Professor and Head of Geography at the Flinders University,Adelaide,

Australia.

Urbanization Migration, and Vietnam Spatial Structure

Transféré par

Informations du document

Titre original

Copyright

Formats disponibles

Partager ce document

Partager ou intégrer le document

Options de partage

Avez-vous trouvé ce document utile ?

Ce contenu est-il inapproprié ?

Droits d'auteur :

Formats disponibles

Urbanization Migration, and Vietnam Spatial Structure

Transféré par

Droits d'auteur :

Formats disponibles

Urbanization, Migration, and Vietnam's Spatial Structure

Author(s): Dean FORBES

Duringthe war years fromthe mid-1960s to the mid-1970s the urbani-

The readiness withwhichpeopledepartruralareasandmigrate totowns

lar,to containthegrowthof thelargercities.However,in recentyears

Vietnam's Cities Before 1976

The coastalregionsofpresent-day Vietnamhaveforhundredsofyears

Following theestablishment oftheDemocratic RepublicofVietnam

Source:The period1943-79 is basedon datainThriftand Forbes(1986), pp. 89-90, 125; sources

The definitionof urbanpopulationadopted in thecensusincludes

Urbanization and Urban Population Growth

The 1970s werea decadeofturbulence in Vietnam.Populationgrowth

19.8 per centin 1989.6 In otherwords,the levelof urbanpopulation

Total Urban Urban

notablefluctuations, such as 1983, when thecountry'surbanpopula-

Internalmigrationpatternsin Vietnamare more constrictedthan in

Source:Data fromCentralCensus SteeringCommittee(1990), tables1.1, 1.2.

The nationalpicturerevealedby thisdata showsthat,by and large,

PROVINCES OF NET OUT MIGRATION

Source:Data fromCentral Committee

PROVINCES OF NET IN MIGRATION

tiongrowthas a resultofresettlement ofpeople largelyfromthenorth

The Large and Secondary Cities

The townsand citiescomprising theurbansystemareclassified byViet-

Secondary 350,000<x< 1 million 2 721 Da Nang,Hai Phong

Source:Basedon datafromthe1989 Censusand theNationalInstitute

banprimacy patternthanin otherpartsofSoutheast Asia.Of thetwo

Total urban 10,115 12,737 2.5

solitarysouthernprovince- Lam Dong - and fourothersin thefar

betweenthetwo cities.However,themigrationdata suggestsnetout-

IntermediateCities and the Towns

Vietnam'ssmalland intermediate urbancentresincreasedtheirshareof

urban centres(1.8 per cent), or the ruralpopulation (1.9 per cent).

Althoughthepace of urbanizationin Vietnamhas been slow,a short-

20,000Vietnamese workers (theVietnamese employedtheretotalled

sectoremployeeswho are in desperateneed of second incomes.

Spatial Policy and Urbanization in Vietnam

trollingpopulation growth. The inter-censal growth ratesforHo Chi

urbanstrategies. littleevidenceof any

Future Population Growth and Urban Strategy

Vietnam's fifthfive-yearplan ran from1991 to 1995, and a socio-

shouldbe given,in theirview,to theurbancentresalong thecoast,es-

But the pace of economicand politicalreformwill in-

Asian DevelopmentBank. Asian DevelopmentOutlook.Manila, 1989.

de Vylder,S. and A. Fforde.Vietnam:An Economyin Transition, Stockholm:Swed-

Thrift,N. and D. Forbes. The Priceof War: Urbanizationin Vietnam1954-1985.

Dean Forbes is Professor and Head of Geography at the Flinders University,Adelaide,

Vous aimerez peut-être aussi