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US AC and HP Market

Dutch Uselton
Lennox International
Dallas, Texas USA

May 19th, 2017

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Residential and Unitary Commercial AC and
HP Products
Residential
• Window Units
• Mini-Split & Multi-Split
• Ground-Source Heat Pumps
• Single-Package Units
• Split-System Units

Commercial
• Wall-Type Units
• Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF) Multi-Splits
• Split-System Units
• Single-Package Units } Very few heat pumps
• (and Applied Air Conditioning Equipment, Chillers, etc.)

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2016 US Central AC and HP
Shipments

Source: February 13, 2017 AHRI Statistical Release

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Historic Market Penetration in New Homes for
Cooling & for Two Predominant Heating Systems
100
Forced-Air Furnace
HP
80 With AC

60
%
40

20

0
1976 1986 1996 2006 2016
• AC has nearly saturated all regions of country
• Most homes/buildings built after forced-air heating introduced –
AC and HP systems are typically ducted in the US
• Heat Pumps, introduced in 1960’s, have gradually taken market share
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Fuel Cost the Driver for HP Sales…

Sources: www.ahrinet.org/statistics, www.eia.gov/


5
Demographic Trends

• Development of AC made southern latitudes more habitable

• Population growth rate has been greatest in “sunbelt” states


– good climate for heat pumps

• “Internet Generation” has different expectations about HVAC

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Refrigerant Policies and Trends

The US is a party to the Montreal Protocol.


Significant New Alternatives Policy (SNAP) was introduced by US EPA in 1994
to approve non-ozone depleting substitutes.
• More recently, SNAP used to list new, lower GWP refrigerants and de-list
formerly acceptable HFC’s due to high GWP
• Restrictions are made by application and consideration is given to the
availability of substitute refrigerants.

2016 Kigali Agreement to Montreal Protocol was supported by Obama


Administration but must still be ratified by Trump Administration, with “Advice
and Consent” of the US Senate.

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Efficiency Trends
Beginning in 1992, the US Department of Energy established minimum efficiency requirements
for many classes of consumer products including air conditioners and heat pumps. The dashed
blue line shows the Federal Minimum SEER for Central Air Conditioners.

Source: Consortium for Energy Efficiency


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Technology Trends

• Proliferation of “communicating” controls (Internet of Things)

• Re-design of systems for Low-GWP refrigerants

• Adapting Codes and Standards for “A2L” refrigerants

• Incorporation of refrigerant and airflow modulation

• Improvement of HP low-temperature performance

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Thank You!

Contact Info:

Dutch Uselton
Lennox International
dutch.uselton@lennoxintl.com

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