Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Robert J. Gordon
T
HE average American family of revolutionary century after the U.S. Civil War Is the United
1870 would have been astounded was made possible by a unique clustering, in
by the living standards of their 1970 the late 19th century, of “great inventions,”
States entering
descendants. From electric lighting principal among which were electricity and a period of
to healthier and longer life spans, in but a cen- the internal combustion engine.
tury the American standard of living changed The first industrial revolution, between
sustained
dramatically from the primitive conditions 1770 and 1830, witnessed the arrival of the low economic
of 1870 to the modern world of today. Those steam engine, railroads, steamships, and
sweeping improvements were in no small way mechanized cotton spinning and weaving.
growth?
due to technological changes that may never The most important industrial revolution
be rivaled for their broad impact on growth, was the second, with inventions centered on
productivity, and well-being.
My recently published book, The Rise and
Fall of American Growth, chronicles those
changes, examines their sources, and looks
at why productivity grew rapidly before 1970
and much more slowly since then. It also
forecasts muted growth in productivity and
income per person from 2015 to 2040.
To translate projected growth in output per hour to out- of total income that can be spent) contrasts with the rate of
put per person, 0.4 percentage point is deducted annually, 1.69 percent a year achieved from 1920 to 2014.
mainly to account for the retirement of the baby-boom gen- While the forecasts may appear pessimistic, they do not
eration. This results in a 2015–40 forecast for output per countenance an end to innovation and technical change.
person of 0.80 percent a year, contrasting with the histori- On the contrary, the prediction of 1.20 percent productivity
cal rate of 2.11 percent a year. To get to median income per growth is very similar to 1970–94 and 2004–15. A compound
person, another 0.40 percentage point a year is subtracted 1.2 percent growth rate would imply a level of labor productiv-
to reflect a continued rise in inequality at roughly the same ity in the year 2040 that is 35 percent above that in 2015, and
rate experienced from 1975 to 2014. An additional subtrac- would be achieved by further innovations in robotics, artificial
tion of 0.1 percentage point is made for anticipated cuts in intelligence and big data, 3-D printing, and driverless vehicles.
social
Gordon,benefits or increases in Social Security and Medicare
corrected 04/11/2016 But while innovation continues, the median growth rate of
taxes that will be needed to counteract the upward creep in real income per person will be less than productivity growth
the federal debt-to-GDP ratio because of an aging popula- because of an aging of the population and rising inequality.
tion. The resulting forecast for 0.3 percent annual growth in Government policy can affect these impediments to median
per capita disposable median income (that is, the amount income growth. The best offset to the retirement of the baby-
boom generation is substantially increased immigration to
lower the average age of the population and to raise the pro-
Chart 5 portion that is working. A larger working population would
Future shock raise tax revenue and counteract future increases in the
By a variety of measures of real income, growth will be debt-to-GDP ratio from the aging of the population. As for
substantially slower in the coming quarter-century than in inequality, the government cannot prevent successful CEOs,
the preceding 95 years. entertainment stars, and entrepreneurs from earning high
(annual growth rate, percent)
incomes, but it can use progressive taxation to redistribute
3
1920–2014 income and promote more equality of after-tax incomes.
2015–40
2.26
2.11
2 1.82
1.69 Robert J. Gordon is the Stanley G. Harris Professor of the
1.20 Social Sciences at Northwestern University.
1 0.8
0.4 References:
0.3
Davis, Stephen J., and John Haltiwanger, 2014, “Labor Market Fluidity
0
Output per hour Output Median income Disposable and Economic Performance,” NBER Working Paper 20479 (Cambridge,
per person per person median income
per person Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).
Source: Gordon (2016). Gordon, Robert J., 2016, The Rise and Fall of American Growth:
Note: Data for 1920 through 2014 are actual; from 2015 to 2040 data are projected. To
translate output per hour to output per person 0.4 percentage point is subtracted to reflect The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War (Princeton, New Jersey:
the larger number of nonworking people, largely the result of baby boomer retirement. In Princeton University Press).
calculating median income per person, another 0.4 percentage point is deducted to reflect
the effects of continued rising inequality. To calculate median disposable income another Hortaçsu, Ali, and Chad Syverson, 2015, “The Ongoing Evolution
0.1 percentage point is deducted to account for anticipated cuts in social benefits or
increases in taxes to support them.
of US Retail: A Format Tug-of-War,” NBER Working Paper 21464
(Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).