Académique Documents
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Initial Jobless Claims: Survey 459 Actual 450 Prior 451 Revised 453
• GOM ‐ The U.S. said oil and gas companies must permanently plug Gulf wells that have sat idle
for five years or more – WSJ
• Principles for eco revival – oped in WSJ ‐ GEORGE P. SHULTZ, MICHAEL J. BOSKIN, JOHN F.
COGAN, ALLAN MELTZER AND JOHN B. TAYLOR – 1) take tax increases off the table; 2) balance the
budget by cutting spending; 3) modify social security and health care entitlement spending; 4) enact a
moratorium on all new regulations for the next three years, with an exception for national security
and public safety; 5) monetary policy should be less discretionary and more rule‐like.
• Byron Wein’s market comment has received a lot of attention of late (his so called “Billionaire’s
Summit”); the overall tone from the gathering was cautious. “the group was gloomy on the outlook.
They saw the United States in a long‐term slow growth environment with the near‐term risk of recession
quite real. The Obama administration was viewed as hostile to business and that discouraged both
hiring and investment. Companies and entrepreneurs were reluctant to add workers because they
didn’t know what their healthcare costs or taxes were going to be. Financial service firms were
confused about how the rules emanating from the new financial service regulatory reform legislation
would affect their businesses” – Blackstone/JPM
• M&A Activity and the Stock Market ‐ News articles of mergers‐and‐acquisition activity have
tended to fluctuate with the stock market since the mid‐1990s. The more mentions there have been, the
higher the benchmark S&P Index has gone. The opposite, as seen in the chart, is also true.
• State Pensions Find Themselves in Benefits ‘Death Spiral’ – U.S. state pensions such as Illinois,
Kansas and New Jersey are in a “death spiral,” with assets at many insufficient to cover benefits, payouts
consuming a growing portion of resources and costs rising twice as fast as investment gains.Less than
half of the 50 state retirement systems had assets to pay for 80 percent of promised benefits in their
2009 fiscal years, according to data compiled for the Bloomberg Cities and Debt Briefing. Two years
earlier, only 19 missed the mark. Illinois covered just 50.6 percent of benefits last year, the lowest so‐
called funded ratio. Actuaries say the level shouldn’t be less than 80 percent. – Bloomberg
• Banks are starting to offer more specifics on dividends, inc. new details on payout levels and
timing. Two major US banks this week said payout ratios going forward will prob. be ~30‐40% vs. 50%+
pre‐crisis. – ABA
• The collapse of Lehman Brothers and central banks’ unorthodox monetary policies distorted
markets to create some of the biggest pricing anomalies ever documented in bond trading;
Instruments that should normally track each other almost perfectly saw their prices diverge sharply as
investors panicked and central banks including the US Federal Reserve distorted bond demand by
buying up huge amounts of debt – FT
• Bloomberg News says Geithner and his team at the Treasury Department are exploring ways to
pressure China to appreciate their currency faster. The Treasury introduced two WTO suits against China
yesterday. – Bloomberg/FTN Financial – Yuan has appreciated 1.59% in almost exactly 3 months, over
half of that happening in the last week.