PRONOSTIC SIMULATION IN ENGLISH

DAVID QUINTERO RODRIGUEZ

PROFESOR: RAMIRO ANDRADE

02 febrero de 2018

SERVICIO NACIONAL DE APRENDIZAJE- SENA

a. Name of the company: Logistics office in a cedi Grupo ave:

b. Main business área: Storage, customer service

c. Seven steps to make a forecasting system:

1. Uses:
It is used for proper storage units and proper management of inventories.

2. Items:
containers glass, for medicines. Dedicated to the manufacture and marketing of
glass containers for the cosmetics and pharmaceutical industries naturist
perfumery.

3. Time horizon

makes monthly forecasts

4. Model

uses time series method to predict the sales of the company and discover the
trends of customers, and the entry and exit of goods.

5. Data gathering:
a monthly inventory control is carried in order to check that the goods in this
dispatching order and ensure that the first to go are the first to go .

6. Making

Based on the previous steps, the Company follows the forecasting procedure.
in order to improve processes

7. Validation and Implementation

The forecasts are made monthly, to ensure that the model, assumptions and the
data is valid.
2. Grafique el pronóstico y escriba las tendencias que tendrá su producto
o servicio a corto, mediano y largo plazo.

Year Janua February March April May June July August September October November December
ry
2001 1020 3025 2850 1980 1450 1250 1100 998 967 1125 1425 1325

2002 1918 1030 2525 947 852 789 1155 2582 758 789 854 654

2003 3635 3485 4785 3582 1458 2584 2485 2310 798 2422 2799 2854

2004 2035 658 875 865 555 441 352 225 1258 1322 2541 2586

2005 2295 7895 5244 8745 5784 4145 6524 2426 1146 3366 1142 2245

2006 2254 1156 1425 10589 12485 13584 16846 2584 12458 13546 17546 17546

2007 6845 5421 6626 11511 11452 6355 2456 3654 47852 6842 6542 35421

2008 3458 10466 14524 12242 13546 12142 12541 2546 2541 3651 5841 7412

Year January February March April May June July August September October November December

2001 1020 3025 2850 1980 1450 1250 1100 998 967 1125 1425 1325

2002 1918 1030 2525 947 852 789 1155 2582 758 789 854 654

2003 3635 3485 4785 3582 1458 2584 2485 2310 798 2422 2799 2854

2004 4035 658 875 865 555 441 352 225 1258 1322 2541 2586

average 2152 2050 2759 1844 1079 1266 1273 1529 945 1415 1905 1855

deviation
1424 1413 1604 1265 450 939 887 1111 227 707 920 1042
coefficient R2
0,99 0,18 0,09 0,01 0,36 0,01 0,02 0,09 0,27 0,17 0,55 0,55
forecast 2009
9647 2193 2719 1301 1128 2850 1952 2188 850 959 2555 1973
logarithmically

4522
lineal
5247

4500
y = 2295.1ln(x) + 828.48
4000

3500

3000

2500

2000 Series2

1500

1000

500

0
2001 2002 2003 2004
➢ We can see that in the short term we will have a 2004 production of 13713 units.

➢ 2009 mid-term productivity of 315849 Units will have a significant increase.

➢ In the long term by improving processes and increasing production is

expected to produce a quantity of 56037
Year January February March April May June July August September October November December

2001 1020 3025 2850 1980 1450 1250 1100 998 967 1125 1425 1325

2002 1918 1030 2525 947 852 789 1155 2582 758 789 854 654

2003 3635 3485 4785 3582 1458 2584 2485 2310 798 2422 2799 2854

2004 2035 658 875 865 555 441 352 225 1258 1322 2541 2586

2005 2295 7895 5244 8745 5784 4145 6524 2426 1146 3366 1142 2245

2006 2254 1156 1425 10589 12485 13584 16846 2584 12458 13546 17546 17546

2007 6845 5421 6626 11511 11452 6355 2456 3654 47852 6842 6542 35421

2008 3458 10466 14524 12242 13546 12142 12541 2546 2541 3651 5841 7412

2009 4445 15426 12345 14536 15388 14854 13546 10425 19875 175462 19547 18575

2010 5180 4010 2769 4205 1166 1780 1960 2065 7262 15544 4534 5563 long-term projection