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TO: Amy McGrath for Congress

FROM: Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group

DATE: February 21, 2018
RE: Results from Recent KY 6th CD General Election Survey
Garin-Hart-Yang conducted a survey among 401 likely GENERAL election voters
from February 5 to 7, 2018. This survey, which is fully representative of the 6th
CD’s geographic and demographic characteristics, was conducted among landline
and cell phones, and has a margin of error of ±5%. This memo provides the key
Republican Congressman Andy Barr is highly vulnerable to defeat, with a
strong plurality of 6th CD voters already wanting to replace him in the
election for Congress. Just 44% of voters give Andy Barr a “positive” rating for
his performance as congressman, just 38% say they want to elect him to another
term, and fully 47% want to make a change from Barr.
Despite facing an understandable name recognition deficit (Amy has 45%
name ID compared with 90% for Jim Gray, who has held elected office for
more than a decade in the district’s largest jurisdiction AND ran for the US
Senate in 2016), Amy already is in a very competitive position in a general
election against Andy Barr. In the initial trial heat, Amy trails Barr by just 48%
to 44%, which makes the race very competitive and is an encouraging result for a
new candidate. Gray does slightly better in the initial trial heat (49% Gray, 47%
Barr), but the fact that Amy basically is in a dead heat with Barr (within the margin
of error) despite her LOWER name ID indicates her stronger potential.
In fact, the results of the initial trial heat among voters who currently
recognize Amy and Jim Gray illustrate her vote growth. Among voters who
recognize “Amy McGrath,” Amy is ahead of Andy Barr by 60% to 38%. Among
voters who recognize “Jim Gray,” Gray is ahead by only 50% to 48%.
The potential for Amy McGrath to be a STRONGER general election
candidate, with appeal to a broader and more diverse coalition of voters
than Jim Gray, is apparent when voters react to POSITIVE descriptions of
Amy and Gray. We presented survey respondents with POSITIVE descriptions of
the three candidates; the McGrath and Gray statements read as follows:

1724 Connecticut Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20009 202-234-5570 202-232-8134 FAX www.hartresearch.com
As a young girl in Kentucky, AMY JIM GRAY has spent more than a decade
MCGRATH was told women couldn't be serving in Lexington city government,
fighter pilots. But after graduating from including the last seven years as mayor
the Naval Academy, she overcame the of Lexington, where he got the city's
odds and became the first female Marine finances in order, expanded economic
to fly a combat mission in an F-18, opportunity, and brought people together
bombing terrorists in Iraq and to solve tough problems. Prior to entering
Afghanistan in eighty-nine combat public life, Gray served as CEO of his
missions. McGrath says Washington is family-owned construction company,
broken because career politicians from where he helped create thousands of jobs
BOTH parties put party over country. As in Kentucky. Now Gray is ready to bring
a former Marine who ALWAYS puts people together in Congress to get things
country first, McGrath represents a new done and make sure that every person
generation of leaders who will bridge has a chance to achieve the American
partisan divides to address declining dream.
wages for the middle class, ethics in
government, and healthcare.
After hearing the descriptions, Amy leads Barr by 51% to 45%, a notable
improvement from the 48% to 44% deficit in the initial trial heat. Importantly, Jim
Gray actually loses a little ground and is tied with Barr (49% to 49%) after voters
hear his positive description.
In summary, BOTH Amy McGrath and Jim Gray show the potential to defeat Andy
Barr, but in terms of showing the most upside potential and ability to win key swing
groups, Amy clearly is the stronger candidate for the general election.

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