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Indicators for USD

A. Inflationary Indicators

1. Core CPI m/m

Source Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)

Measures Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers,


excluding food and energy;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, about 15 days after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 15, 2012

FF Notes Food and energy prices account for about a quarter of CPI, but they
tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The FOMC
usually pays the most attention to the Core data - so do traders;

Why Traders Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is
Care important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central
bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment
mandate;

Also Called CPI Ex Food and Energy, Underlying CPI;

Acro Expand Consumer Price Index (CPI), Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);

2. Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Source Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)

Measures Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers,


excluding food and energy;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, about 15 days after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 15, 2012

FF Notes Food and energy prices account for about a quarter of CPI, but they
tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The FOMC
usually pays the most attention to the Core data - so do traders;

Why Traders Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is
Care important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central
bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment
mandate;

Also Called CPI Ex Food and Energy, Underlying CPI;

Acro Expand Consumer Price Index (CPI), Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);

Consumer Price Index (CPI)


The CPI is a measure of the change in the prices of consumer goods across over 200
different categories. This report, when compared to a nation's exports, can be used to see
if a country is making or losing money on its products and services. Be careful, however,
to monitor the exports - it is a focus that is popular with many traders because the prices
of exports often change relative to a currency's strength or weakness.
Some of the other major indicators include the purchasing managers index (PMI), producer
price index (PPI), durable goods report, employment cost index (ECI), and housing starts.
And don't forget the many privately issued reports, the most famous of which is the
Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey. All of these provide a valuable resource to traders,
if used properly.

3. PPI m/m

Source Department of Labor (latest release)

Measures Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 14, 2012


FF Notes Tends to have more impact when it's released ahead of the CPI data
because the reports are significantly correlated;

Why Traders It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when producers charge
Care more for goods and services the higher costs are usually passed on to
the consumer;

Also Called Finished Goods PPI. Wholesale Prices;

Acro Expand Producer Price Index (PPI);

4. Core PPI m/m

Source Department of Labor (latest release)

Measures Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers,
excluding food and energy;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 14, 2012

FF Notes Food and energy prices make up about 40% of overall PPI which tends
to mute the importance of the Core data;

Also Called Core Finished Goods PPI;

Acro Expand Producer Price Index (PPI);

5. Capacity Utilization Rate

Source Federal Reserve (latest release)

Measures Percentage of available resources being utilized by manufacturers,


mines, and utilities;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, about 16 days after the month ends;


Next Release Nov 16, 2012

Why Traders It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when producers are
Care nearing full capacity they respond by raising prices, and the higher
costs are usually passed on to the consumer;

6. Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

Source University of Michigan (latest release)

Measures Percentage that consumers expect the price of goods and services to
change during the next 12 months;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;

Next Release Nov 9, 2012

FF Notes There are 2 versions of this data released 14 days apart – Preliminary
and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earlier and thus tends to
have the most impact;

Why Traders Expectations of future inflation can manifest into real inflation, primarily
Care because workers tend to push for higher wages when they believe
prices will rise;

Derived Via Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents where they
expect prices to be 12 months in the future;

Acro Expand University of Michigan (UoM);

7. Revised UoM Inflation Expectations

Source University of Michigan (latest release)

Measures Percentage that consumers expect the price of goods and services to
change during the next 12 months;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, usually on the last Friday of the current month;
Next Release Nov 23, 2012

FF Notes The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Preliminary release and
therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 2
versions of this data released about 15 days apart – Preliminary and
Revised. The Preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have
more impact;

Derived Via Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents where they
expect prices to be 12 months in the future;

Acro Expand University of Michigan (UoM);

8. Advance GDP Price Index q/q

Source Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)

Measures Annualized change in the price of all goods and services included in
GDP;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released quarterly, about 30 days after the quarter ends;

Next Release Jan 30, 2013

FF Notes While this is q/q data, it's reported in an annualized format (quarterly
change x4).

Why Traders It's the broadest measure of inflation, encompassing all activities
Care included in GDP, and is a primary instrument that the central bank uses
to assess inflation;

Also Called GDP Deflator;

Acro Expand Gross Domestic Product (GDP);

9. ISM Manufacturing Prices

Source Institute for Supply Management (latest release)

Measures Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in


the manufacturing industry;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, on the first business day after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 1, 2012

FF Notes This is a component of PMI but reported separately as an inflation


gauge. Above 50.0 indicates rising prices, below indicates falling prices;

Why Traders It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when businesses pay
Care more for goods and services the higher costs are usually passed on to
the consumer;

Derived Via Survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to
rate the relative level of prices paid for goods and services;

Also Called Manufacturing Prices Paid;

Acro Expand The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), Purchasing Managers'
Index (PMI);

10. Import Prices m/m

Source Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)

Measures Change in the price of imported goods and services purchased


domestically;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, about 13 days after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 9, 2012

FF Notes This is the earliest government-released inflation data;

Why Traders It contributes to inflation for businesses and consumers, especially


Care those who rely heavily on imported goods and services;

Also Called Import Price Index;

B. Employment Indicators
11. Average Hourly Earnings m/m

Source Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)

Measures Change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming
industry;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 2, 2012

FF Notes This is the earliest data related to labor inflation. Source changed series
calculation formula as of Feb 2010;

Why Traders It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when businesses pay
Care more for labor the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer;

12. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

Source Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (latest release)

Measures Estimated change in the number of employed people during the


previous month, excluding the farming industry and government;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, about 2 days after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 1, 2012

FF Notes Usually leads the government-released employment data by 2 days.


Source changed series calculation formula as of Nov 2012 to better
align with the government’s data;

Why Traders Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending,


Care which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;

Derived Via ADP provides payroll services to many corporations in the US. They use
the data collected from a sample of around 400,000 client businesses to
derive the overall employment estimations;
Acro Expand Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP);

Non-Farm Employment Change

Source Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)

Measures Change in the number of employed people during the previous month,
excluding the farming industry;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 2, 2012

FF Notes This is vital economic data released shortly after the month ends. The
combination of importance and earliness makes for hefty market
impacts;

Why Traders Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending,


Care which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;

Also Called Non-Farm Payrolls, NFP, Employment Change

Nonfarm Payroll
The Nonfarm Payroll Employment Report, produced by the U.S. Department of
Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks the number of jobs added or lost each month. If
the economy is adding jobs at a healthy pace, interest rates may move higher. Higher
interest rates are attractive to foreign investors, increasing interest in and demand for the
U.S. dollar. The opposite is also true, with job losses having the potential to push interest
rates lower and weaken demand for the dollar. The Nonfarm Payroll Report is released on
the following Friday after the conclusion of the reference month at 8:30 A.M. Eastern
Standard Time. (To learn more about the Nonfarm Report, see Trading The Non-Farm
Payroll Report)
A statistic researched, recorded and reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics intended to represent the total number of paid U.S. workers of
any business, excluding the following employees:

- general government employees


- private household employees
- employees of nonprofit organizations that provide assistance to
individuals
- farm employees

This monthly report also includes estimates on the average work week
and the average weekly earnings of all non-farm employees.

Read
more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nonfarmpayroll.asp#ixzz2AKtvBzfD

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/11/five-reports-that-move-


usd.asp#ixzz26kx9IPYS
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls

13. Unemployment Claims

Source Department of Labor (latest release)

Measures The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time
during the past week;

Usual Effect Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;

Next Release Sep 27, 2012

FF Notes This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from
week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to
diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;

Why Traders Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed
Care people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer
spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions;

Also Called Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

14. Unemployment Rate/Jobless Rate

Source Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)

Measures Percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively
seeking employment during the previous month;

Usual Effect Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 2, 2012


Why Traders Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of
Care unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health
because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market
conditions;

Also Called Jobless Rate;

- The percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking
employment and willing to work.

Read
more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/unemploymentrate.asp#ixzz26zXF3F8M

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

http://www.google.co.in/publicdata/explore?ds=z1ebjpgk2654c1_&met_y=unemployment_rate&idi
m=country:US&fdim_y=seasonality:S&dl=en&hl=en&q=unemployment+rate+us#!ctype=l&strail=fals
e&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=unemployment_rate&fdim_y=seasonality:S&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&r
dim=country&idim=country:US&ifdim=country&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false

http://www.bls.gov/cps/tables.htm

C. Consumption/Sales Indicators
15. Consumer Credit m/m

Source Federal Reserve (latest release)

Measures Change in the total value of outstanding consumer credit that requires
installment payments;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, about 37 days after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 8, 2012

Why Traders It's correlated with consumer spending and confidence - rising debt
Care levels are a sign that lenders feel comfortable issuing loans, and that
consumers are confident in their financial position and eager to spend
money;

16. Core Retail Sales m/m


Source Census Bureau (latest release)

Measures Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding
automobiles;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 14, 2012

FF Notes Automobile sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend
to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The Core data is
therefore thought to be a better gauge of spending trends;

Also Called Retail Sales Ex Autos;

Definition
“(Retail Sales Core) Derivative of Retail Sales that excludes the Automobile Sales component. Automobile Sales
make up roughly 25% of Retail Sales, but they can be very volatile from month to month and can distort the picture.
Retail Sales with the exclusion of this volatile component is thought to be a better indicator of the underlying trend in
consumer spending.”
Retail Sales make up about 2/3 of U.S. GDP (Gross Domestic Product); Core Retail Sales report excludes Auto sales
which comprises 20% of total retail sales. Therefore, we are more focused on daily consumer spending on goods
found in such places as department stores, gas stations, and restaurants.
17. Retail Sales m/m

Source Census Bureau (latest release)

Measures Change in the total value of sales at the retail level;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 14, 2012

FF Notes This is the earliest and broadest look at vital consumer spending data;

Why Traders It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the
Care majority of overall economic activity;

Also Called Advance Retail Sales;


18. Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

The Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment Indicator is a survey of consumer confidence conducted by the University
of Michigan. This is a telephone survey which gathers information on consumer expectations regarding the overall
economy. It measures the attitudes and expectations concerning both present and future economic conditions of 500
consumers. They are asked about how they see their own financial futures and opinions on the prospects for the U.S.
economy. It is an early assessment of consumer sentiment regarding personal finances, business conditions and
purchasing power.

There are two versions of this data released about 15 days apart – Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release
is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact; it is released around the 10th of each month. A final report for
the prior month is released on the first of the month.

Just like Consumer Confidence, the level of consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer
spending. The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely
they are to spend. The index is useful for the investors because it gives a snapshot of whether consumers feel like
spending money

19. Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

Source University of Michigan (latest release)

Measures Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, usually on the last Friday of the current month;

Next Release Nov 23, 2012

FF Notes The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Preliminary release and
therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 2
versions of this data released about 15 days apart – Preliminary and
Revised. The Preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have
more impact;

Derived Via Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the
relative level of current and future economic conditions;

Also Called Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment;

Acro Expand University of Michigan (UoM);

20. Building Permits


Source Census Bureau (latest release)

Measures Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the
previous month;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 20, 2012

FF Notes While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format


(monthly figure x12);

Why Traders It's an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining
Care a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building;

Also Called Residential Building Permits;

21. Housing Starts

Source Census Bureau (latest release)

Measures Annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction


during the previous month;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 20, 2012

FF Notes While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format


(monthly figure x12). This data is slightly overshadowed by Building
Permits because they are tightly correlated and a permit must be issued
before a house can begin construction;

Why Traders It's a leading indicator of economic health because building construction
Care produces a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, jobs are created
for the construction workers, subcontractors and inspectors are hired,
and various construction services are purchased by the builder;

22. HPI m/m

FF Alert Source released data 14 hours earlier than scheduled;

Source FHFA (latest release)

Measures Change in the purchase price of homes with mortgages backed by


Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, about 55 days after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 27, 2012

FF Notes Source began m/m frequency in Mar 2008;

Why Traders It's a leading indicator of the housing industry's health because rising
Care house prices attract investors and spur industry activity;

Acro Expand House Price Index (HPI);

23. Pending Home Sales m/m

Source National Association of Realtors (latest release)

Measures Change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still
awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, about 28 days after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 29, 2012

FF Notes This data is released about a week later than Existing Home Sales, but
it's more forward-looking as a contract is signed several weeks before
the home is counted as sold;
Why Traders It's a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home
Care triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are
done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and
brokers are paid to execute the transaction;

Also Called Pending Resales;

24. New Home Sales

Source Census Bureau (latest release)

Measures Annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during
the previous month;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, about 25 days after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 28, 2012

FF Notes While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format


(monthly figure x12);

Why Traders It's a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a new
Care home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, furniture and
appliances are purchased for the home, a mortgage is sold by the
financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;

Also Called New Residential Sales;

25. NAHB Housing Market Index

Source NAHB (latest release)

Measures Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed home builders;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;

Next Release Nov 19, 2012


FF Notes Above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales, below indicates a
negative outlook;

Derived Via Survey of about 900 home builders which asks respondents to rate the
relative level of current and future single-family home sales;

Acro Expand National Association of Home Builders (NAHB);

26. Existing home sales

Source National Association of Realtors (latest release)

Measures Annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the
previous month, excluding new construction;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, about 20 days after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 19, 2012

FF Notes While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format


(monthly figure x12). Existing homes make up the majority of total
sales and therefore tend to have more impact than New Home Sales;

Why Traders It's a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home
Care triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are
done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and
brokers are paid to execute the transaction;

Also Called Home Resales;

27. Durable Goods Orders m/m

Source Census Bureau (latest release)

Measures Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with
manufacturers for durable goods;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;


Frequency Released monthly, about 26 days after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 27, 2012

FF Notes This data is usually revised via the Factory Orders report released about
a week later. Durable goods are defined as hard products having a life
expectancy of more than 3 years, such as automobiles, computers,
appliances, and airplanes;

Why Traders It's a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders signal that
Care manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the orders;

28. Core Durable goods Orders m/m

Source Census Bureau (latest release)

Measures Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for
durable goods, excluding transportation items;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, about 26 days after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 27, 2012

FF Notes Orders for aircraft are volatile and can severely distort the underlying trend. The
Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of purchase order trends;

Why Traders It's a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders signal that
Care manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the orders;

Also Called Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation;

29. Total Vehicle Sales

Ource Autodata Corp. (latest release)

Measures Annualized number of cars and trucks sold domestically during the
previous month;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, about 2 days after the month ends;


Next Release Nov 1, 2012

FF Notes Listed as an 'All Day' event because the 'Actual' is comprised of data
from major auto manufacturers which report their sales figures
throughout the afternoon. While this is monthly data, it's reported in an
annualized format (monthly figure x12);

Why Traders It's a sign of consumer confidence - rising demand for expensive
Care durable goods shows that consumers are confident in their future
financial position and feel comfortable spending money;

Also Called Total SAAR;

30. IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

Source TIPP (latest release)

Measures Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;

Next Release Nov 13, 2012

FF Notes Above 50.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism;

Derived Via Survey of about 900 consumers which asks respondents to rate the
relative level of economic conditions including six-month economic
outlook, personal financial outlook, and confidence in federal economic
policies;

Also Called IBD/TIPP Consumer Confidence;

Acro Expand Investor's Business Daily (IBD), TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and
Politics (TIPP);

D. Manufacturing/Production Levels
31. Industrial Production m/m

Source Federal Reserve (latest release)


Measures Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by
manufacturers, mines, and utilities;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, about 16 days after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 16, 2012

Why Traders It's a leading indicator of economic health - production reacts quickly to
Care ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer
conditions such as employment levels and earnings;

Also Called Factory Output;

32. Wholesale Inventories m/m

Source Census Bureau (latest release)

Measures Change in the total value of goods held in inventory by wholesalers;

Usual Effect Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 9, 2012

Why Traders It's a signal of future business spending because companies are more
Care likely to purchase goods once they have depleted inventories;

33. Business Inventories m/m

Ource Census Bureau (latest release)

Measures Change in the total value of goods held in inventory by manufacturers,


wholesalers, and retailers;

Usual Effect Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, about 45 days after the month ends;


Next Release Nov 14, 2012

Why Traders It's a signal of future business spending because companies are more
Care likely to purchase goods once they have depleted inventories;

34. Factory Orders m/m

Source Census Bureau (latest release)

Measures Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with
manufacturers;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, about 35 days after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 2, 2012

FF Notes This report contains a revision of the Durable Goods Orders data
released about a week earlier, and fresh data regarding non-durable
goods;

Why Traders It's a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders signal that
Care manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the orders;

35. Empire State Manufacturing Index

Source Federal Reserve Bank of New York(latest release)

Measures Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in New York


state;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;

Next Release Nov 15, 2012

FF Notes Above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening


conditions;
Why Traders It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to
Care market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early
signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and
investment;

Derived Via Survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state which asks
respondents to rate the relative level of general business conditions;

Also Called New York Manufacturing Index;

36. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Source Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia(latest release)

Measures Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in


Philadelphia;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;

Next Release Nov 15, 2012

FF Notes Above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening


conditions;

Why Traders It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to
Care market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early
signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and
investment;

Derived Via Survey of about 250 manufacturers in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve
district which asks respondents to rate the relative level of general
business conditions;

Also Called Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey;

37. ISM Manufacturing PMI

Source Institute for Supply Management (latest release)

Measures Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in


the manufacturing industry;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, on the first business day after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 1, 2012

FF Notes Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction;

Why Traders It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to
Care market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the
most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the
economy;

Derived Via Survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to
rate the relative level of business conditions including employment,
production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;

Also Called Manufacturing ISM Report On Business;

Acro Expand The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), Purchasing Managers'
Index (PMI);

38. Flash Manufacturing PMI

Source Markit (latest release)

Measures Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in


the manufacturing industry;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, around 3 weeks into the current month;

Next Release Nov 22, 2012

FF Notes Data is given to Thomson Reuters subscribers 2 minutes before the


public release time listed on the calendar - early market reaction is
usually a result of trades made by these subscribers. Above 50.0
indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. The 'Previous'
listed is the 'Actual' from the Flash release and therefore the 'History'
data will appear unconnected. There are 2 versions of this report
released about a week apart – Flash and Final. The Flash release is the
earliest and thus tends to have the most impact. Source first released in
May 2012;

Why Traders It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to
Care market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the
most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the
economy;

Derived Via Survey of about 600 purchasing managers which asks respondents to
rate the relative level of business conditions including employment,
production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;

Acro Expand Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI);

39. Final Manufacturing PMI

Source Markit (latest release)

Measures Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in


the manufacturing industry;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, on the first business day after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 1, 2012

FF Notes Data is given to Thomson Reuters subscribers 2 minutes before the


public release time listed on the calendar - early market reaction is
usually a result of trades made by these subscribers. Above 50.0
indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. The 'Previous'
listed is the 'Actual' from the Flash release and therefore the 'History'
data will appear unconnected. There are 2 versions of this report
released about a week apart – Flash and Final. The Flash release is the
earliest and thus tends to have the most impact. Source first released in
May 2012;

Why Traders It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to
Care market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the
most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the
economy;

Derived Via Survey of about 600 purchasing managers which asks respondents to
rate the relative level of business conditions including employment,
production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;
Acro Expand Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI);

40. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Source Institute for Supply Management (latest release)

Measures Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers,


excluding the manufacturing industry;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, on the third business day after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 5, 2012

FF Notes Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction.


Source changed series from unadjusted to seasonally adjusted as of
January 2001. Source changed series calculation formula as of Feb
2008;

Why Traders It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to
Care market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the
most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the
economy;

Derived Via Survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to
rate the relative level of business conditions including employment,
production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;

Also Called Services PMI, Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business;

Acro Expand The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), Purchasing Managers'
Index (PMI);

41. Construction Spending m/m

Source Census Bureau (latest release)

Measures Change in the total amount builders spent on construction projects;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;


Frequency Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 1, 2012

E. GDP/ FOMC
42. Advance GDP q/q

Source Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)

Measures Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and


services produced by the economy;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released quarterly, about 30 days after the quarter ends;

Next Release Jan 30, 2013

FF Notes While this is q/q data, it's reported in an annualized format (quarterly
change x4). There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart –
Advance, Preliminary, and Final. The Advance release is the earliest and
thus tends to have the most impact;

Why Traders It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of
Care the economy's health;

Also Called GDP First Release, Estimated GDP;

Acro Expand Gross Domestic Product (GDP);

43. Prelim GDP q/q


Gross Domestic Product
Gross domestic product (GDP) tracks the monetary value of all the finished goods and
services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period. It is used as a
measure of the nation’s health. Similar to the nonfarm payroll number, if GDP is rising,
interest rates tend to rise. Higher interest rates attract foreign investors and the dollar
tends to rise. If GDP is falling, the dollar tends to fall. The Bureau of Economic Analysis
releases GDP data at 8:30 AM Eastern Standard Time on the last day of each quarter. (For
more information, read The Importance Of Inflation And GDP.)

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/11/five-reports-that-move-


usd.asp#ixzz26kxFUT4B
44. TIC Long-Term Purchases

Source Department of the Treasury (latest release)

Measures Difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by


US citizens and US long-term securities purchased by foreigners during
the reported period;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, about 45 days after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 12, 2012

FF Notes This data represents the balance of domestic and foreign investment -
for example, if foreigners purchased $100 billion in US stocks and
bonds, and the US purchased $30 billion in foreign stocks and bonds,
the net reading would be 70.0B. The market impact tends to be
significant but varies from month to month;

Why Traders Demand for domestic securities and currency demand are directly linked
Care because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to purchase the
nation's securities;

Also Called Net Long-term Securities Transactions;

Acro Expand Treasury International Capital (TIC);

45. Trade Balance

Source Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)

Measures Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services
during the reported month;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 8, 2012

FF Notes A positive number indicates that more goods and services were
exported than imported;
Why Traders Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because
Care foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's
exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic
manufacturers;

Also Called International Trade;

Trade Balance
The trade balance report, which is jointly produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA) and the U.S. Census Bureau, provides insight into import and export activity. The
indicator within the Trade Balance Report that is most well known is the nominal trade
deficit, which represents the current dollar value of U.S. exports minus the current dollar
value of U.S. imports. When imports exceed exports, the nation is said to have a trade
deficit. When the reverse is true, the nation is said to have a trade surplus.

A trade deficit is bad news for the dollar, as it means foreign goods are in demand. Those
goods are ultimately purchased with foreign currency which creates a higher demand for
foreign currency. A trade surplus, on the other hand, means that foreign consumers are
buying more American goods. This results in demand for the dollar. The trade balance
report is released approximately six-weeks after the end of the month it references (on or
about the 15th of the month) at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Standard Time and covers the two prior
months. (For more information on imports and exports, see What Is The Balance Of
Payments?)

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/11/five-reports-that-move-


usd.asp#ixzz26kx0RE76

46. FOMC Statement

Source Federal Reserve (latest release)

Usual Effect More hawkish than expected = Good for currency;

Frequency Scheduled 8 times per year;

Next Release Dec 12, 2012

FF Notes The FOMC usually changes the statement slightly at each release. It's
these changes that traders focus on.

Why Traders It's the primary tool the FOMC uses to communicate with investors
Care about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their vote on interest
rates and other policy measures, along with commentary about the
economic conditions that influenced their votes. Most importantly, it
discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of
future votes;
Also Called Interest Rate Statement, Fed Statement, Monetary Policy Statement;

Acro Expand Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);

47. Beige Book

Source Federal Reserve (latest release)

Usual Effect More hawkish than expected = Good for currency;

Frequency 8 times per year, 2 weeks before each FOMC meeting;

Next Release Nov 29, 2012

FF Notes This analysis is used by the FOMC to help make their next decision on
interest rates. However, it tends to produce a mild impact as the FOMC
also receives 2 non-public books - the Green Book and the Blue Book -
which are widely believed to be more influential to their rate decision;

Derived Via Anecdotal evidence supplied by the 12 Federal Reserve banks regarding
local economic conditions in their district;

Also Called Current Economic Conditions;

Acro Expand Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);

48. 30-y Bond Auction

Source Treasury Direct (latest release)

Measures Highest yield on a 30-year bond the government sold at auction, and
the bid-to-cover ratio of the auction;

Usual Effect No consistent effect - there are both risk and growth implications;

Frequency Conducted monthly;

Next Release Nov 8, 2012


FF Notes Auction results are reported in an 'X.XX|X.X' format - the first number
is the highest interest rate of the bonds sold, and the second number is
the bid-to-cover ratio (number of bids made per bid accepted);

Why Traders Yields are set by bond market investors, and therefore they can be used
Care to decipher investors' outlook on future interest rates. The bid-to-cover
ratio represents bond market liquidity and demand, which can be used
to gauge investor confidence;

Also Called Treasury Auction;

49. 10-y Bond Auction

Source Treasury Direct (latest release)

Measures Highest yield on 10-year bonds the government sold at auction, and the
bid-to-cover ratio of the auction;

Usual Effect No consistent effect - there are both risk and growth implications;

Frequency Conducted monthly;

Next Release Nov 7, 2012

FF Notes Auction results are reported in an 'X.XX|X.X' format - the first number
is the highest interest rate of the bonds sold, and the second number is
the bid-to-cover ratio (number of bids made per bid accepted);

Why Traders Yields are set by bond market investors, and therefore they can be used
Care to decipher investors' outlook on future interest rates. The bid-to-cover
ratio represents bond market liquidity and demand, which can be used
to gauge investor confidence;

Also Called Treasury Auction;

50. Crude Oil Inventories

FF Alert 'Actual' data initially misstated, then rectified 20 seconds after release.
We regret the error;

Source Energy Information Administration(latest release)


Measures Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by
commercial firms during the past week;

Usual Effect No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth
implications;

Frequency Released weekly, 4 days after the week ends;

Next Release Oct 11, 2012

FF Notes While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's
sizable energy sector;

Why Traders It influences the price of petroleum products which affects inflation, but
Care also impacts growth as many industries rely on oil to produce goods;

Also Called Crude Stocks, Crude Levels;

Acro Expand Energy Information Administration (EIA);

51. Natural Gas Storage

Source Energy Information Administration(latest release)

Measures Change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground
storage during the past week;

Usual Effect No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth
implications;

Frequency Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;

Next Release Oct 11, 2012

FF Notes While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's
sizable energy sector;

Also Called Nat Gas Stocks, Nat Gas Inventories, Working Gas;

Acro Expand Energy Information Administration (EIA);


52. CB Leading Index m/m

Source The Conference Board Inc. (latest release)

Measures Change in the level of a composite index based on 10 economic


indicators;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, about 20 days after the month ends;

Next Release Nov 21, 2012

FF Notes This index is designed to predict the direction of the economy, but it
tends to have a muted impact because most of the indicators used in
the calculation are released previously. Source changed series
calculation formula as of Jan 2012;

Derived Via Combined reading of 10 economic indicators related to employment,


new orders, consumer confidence, housing, stock market prices, credit
trends, and interest rate spreads;

Also Called Leading Indicators;

Acro Expand The Conference Board (CB);