SENA – AGRICULTURAL CENTER

Prognostic Simulation in
English
FORECASTING

Aldemar Alejandro Vargas Castrillón

29/05/2017
 1) Develop a prognostic simulation of the demand for the product or service according to
your training project. Please note the following items:

A. Name of the Company - Mahapalét

B. Main business área - Ladies underwear
C. Seven steps to make a forecasting system
1. Uses
Forecast the demand of Mahapalét this in order to improve and prepare the inventory.
2. Items
In Mahapalét, the prediction is used in fabrics for the manufacture of underwear.
3. Time horizon
Monthly forecasts.
4. Model
Periods short of time to make proper decisions
5. Data gathering
Mahapalet is collected monthly.
Sales data, orders and in stock to check if the shipping process is successful and how often
6. Making
All this process is done in order for the company to run properly.
In the event of a fault, is act as quickly as possible to solver
7. Validation and implementation
Doing monthly reviews helps you have a continuous improvement plan

2) Graph the forecast and write down the trends that your product or service will have in
the short, medium and long term.

Short term.
Projected sales for 2016 were 2,800,000 based on short-term sales history. This happens
for the periods of the year where in the beginning the sales diminish by the high cost that
people have ending the year.

Short term From January to April

From January to April
January 1,6
3
February 1,9 2
From
1 January to
March 2,4
April
0
April 2,8 0 2 4 6
Medium term

Projected sales for 2016 were 4,700,000 based on medium-term sales history. In this period
stabilizes the sales and profit per season of bonfications.

Medium term From May to August

From May to August
May 3,1
6
June 4,7 4
From May
July 4,1 2 to August
0
August 3,5 0 2 4 6

Long term

Projected sales for 2016 were 5,100,000 based on long-term sales history. In this period the profits
are maintained until the end of the year sales are raised by the bonuses and vacations generating
very good gains.

Long term From September toDecember

From september to
September 3,7
december
6
October 3,8 4 From
2 september
November 4,2 to december
0
December 5,1 0 2 4 6