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Cuenca : Río Chillón

Estación : Canta
No.Orden Weilbull
Año Pp.Máx.en 24 horas (mm)
1964 16.0 1 0.03
1965 13.6 2 0.06
1966 15.0 3 0.09
1967 22.7 4 0.12
1968 12.1 5 0.15
1969 21.3 6 0.18
1970 51.2 7 0.21
1971 13.2 8 0.24
1972 25.7 9 0.26
1973 23.6 10 0.29
1974 16.9 11 0.32
1975 18.6 12 0.35
1976 18.2 13 0.38
1977 32.8 14 0.41
1978 17.6 15 0.44
1979 16.4 16 0.47
1980 14.6 17 0.50
1986 23.5 18 0.53
1987 8.0 19 0.56
1988 9.0 20 0.59
1989 8.3 21 0.62
1990 2.0 22 0.65
1992 0.9 23 0.68
1993 9.4 24 0.71
1994 15.5 25 0.74
1995 12.4 26 0.76
1996 16.7 27 0.79
1997 30.0 28 0.82
1998 30.5 29 0.85
1999 24.1 30 0.88
2000 19.2 31 0.91
2001 33.5 32 0.94
2002 18.0 33 0.97
Media
DesvEst.

Cuenca : Río Chillón


Estación : Canta
Año Pp.Máx.en 24 horas (mm) Pp.Máx.en 24 horas (mm)
1964 16.0 14.6
1965 13.6 23.5
1966 15.0 8.0
1967 22.7 9.0
1968 12.1 8.3
1969 21.3 2.0
1970 51.2 0.9
1971 13.2 9.4
1972 25.7 15.5
1973 23.6 12.4
1974 16.9 16.7
1975 18.6 30.0
1976 18.2 30.5
1977 32.8 24.1
1978 17.6 19.2
1979 16.4 33.5
18.0
o Chillón

Pp24hr LN (Pp24hr) Dist.Norm Dist.Log.Norm.


Ejemplo:
51.2 3.94 37.1 4.15 Evaluar si los datos de PP Max 24 horas siguen
33.5 3.51 33.9 3.91 las distribuciones normal y log-normal respectivam
32.8 3.49 31.8 3.75 Asimismo calcule la magnitud correspondiente a un
30.5 3.42 30.2 3.62 según un % de Riesgo y No. años de Vida Util
30.0 3.40 28.8 3.52
25.7 3.25 27.6 3.43 40.0
24.1 3.18 26.6 3.35 f(x) = 0.8813164694x + 2.1956453168
23.6 3.16 25.6 3.27 35.0 R² = 0.9124814567
23.5 3.16 24.7 3.20
30.0

Pp Max 24 h - Dist Norm.


22.7 3.12 23.8 3.14
21.3 3.06 23.0 3.07 25.0
19.2 2.95 22.2 3.01
20.0
18.6 2.92 21.4 2.95
18.2 2.90 20.7 2.90 15.0
18.0 2.89 20.0 2.84
10.0
17.6 2.87 19.2 2.78
16.9 2.83 18.5 2.73 5.0
16.7 2.82 17.8 2.67
0.0
16.4 2.80 17.0 2.62
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0
16.0 2.77 16.3 2.56
15.5 2.74 15.6 2.50 Pp Max 24 h
15.0 2.71 14.8 2.44
14.6 2.68 14.0 2.38
13.6 2.61 13.2 2.32
4.5
13.2 2.58 12.3 2.25
12.4 2.52 11.4 2.18 4
f(x) = 1.0466917895x - 0.1736631586
12.1 2.49 10.4 2.11 3.5
Ln(Pp Max 24 h) Dist Norm.

R² = 0.8380640327
9.4 2.24 9.4 2.03
3
9.0 2.20 8.2 1.94
8.3 2.12 6.8 1.83 2.5
8.0 2.08 5.2 1.71 2
2.0 0.69 3.1 1.55
1.5
0.9 -0.05 -0.1 1.30
18.5 2.73 1
9.8 0.75 0.5
0
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
Ln(Pp Max 24 h)
datos de PP Max 24 horas siguen
nes normal y log-normal respectivamente.
cule la magnitud correspondiente a un Tr
e Riesgo y No. años de Vida Util

Distribución Normal
f(x) = 0.8813164694x + 2.1956453168 R 0.05 0.1
R² = 0.9124814567 N 50 50
Tr 975 475
P(X>=x) 0.001 0.002
P(X<x) 0.999 0.998
Pp Estimada 48.79 46.62
Dist.Norm
Linear (Dist.Norm)

.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0


Pp Max 24 h

Distribución Log Normal


R 0.05 0.1
N 50 50
f(x) = 1.0466917895x - 0.1736631586
Tr 975 475
R² = 0.8380640327
P(X>=x) 0.001 0.002
P(X<x) 0.999 0.998
Pp Estimada 5.05 4.89
Dist.Norm.Inv. 156.29 132.34
Dist.Log.Norm.
Dist.Log.Inv. 156.29 132.34
Linear (Dist.Log.Norm.)

5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5


Ln(Pp Max 24 h)
Dist.Gumbel
Kolmogorov Smirnov α 7.6578
β 14.0788 P(X<x)
14.136 12.395 4.84753 0.99218
0.373 16.289 2.53615 0.92388
1.020 9.605 2.44474 0.91691
0.339 6.951 2.14439 0.88946
1.192 3.760 2.07909 0.88246
1.926 5.136 1.51757 0.80313
2.464 4.323 1.30863 0.76324
1.989 2.775 1.24334 0.74945
1.179 1.097 1.23028 0.74661
1.119 0.327 1.12581 0.72297
1.698 0.322 0.94299 0.67742
3.008 1.150 0.66876 0.59909
2.841 0.587 0.59041 0.57459
2.491 0.085 0.53817 0.55777
1.954 0.881 0.51206 0.54922
1.625 1.411 Y variable 0.45982 0.53185
1.600 1.587 reducida 0.36841 0.50066
1.075 2.215 0.34229 0.49158
0.646 2.703 0.30312 0.47782
0.309 3.056 0.25088 0.45927
0.059 3.279 0.18559 0.43578
0.208 3.477 0.12030 0.41203
0.598 3.755 0.06806 0.39290
0.419 3.417 -0.06252 0.34489
0.879 3.667 -0.11476 0.32576
0.989 3.509 -0.21923 0.28791
1.664 3.850 -0.25840 0.27394
0.026 1.796 -0.61099 0.15846
0.808 2.054 -0.66322 0.14356
1.461 2.039 -0.75463 0.11921
2.780 2.470 -0.79381 0.10950
1.127 2.710 -1.57733 0.00789
14.136 16.289

1.00000
0.90000
f(x) = 0.9450234638x + 0.0129125576
0.80000 R² = 0.9861416181
0.70000
0.60000
Gumbel

0.50000
0.40000 Column AB
0.30000 Linear (Column A
0.20000
0.10000
0.00000
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00
Weilbull
0.20000
0.10000
0.00000
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00
Weilbull
Dist. Gumbel Met VT Chow

P(X>=x) Tr K Pp Max 24 h Gumbel


0.00782 127.92577 3.33125 51.22922
0.07612 13.13752 1.52816 33.51403
0.08309 12.03475 1.45685 32.81342
0.11054 9.04658 1.22255 30.51145
0.11754 8.50764 1.17162 30.01102
0.19687 5.07940 0.73358 25.70733
0.23676 4.22360 0.57059 24.10596
0.25055 3.99118 0.51965 23.60553
0.25339 3.94651 0.50946 23.50544
0.27703 3.60971 0.42797 22.70475
0.32258 3.10003 0.28535 21.30355
0.40091 2.49433 0.07143 19.20175
0.42541 2.35067 0.01030 18.60124
0.44223 2.26125 -0.03044 18.20089
0.45078 2.21836 -0.05082 18.00072
0.46815 2.13606 -0.09157 17.60038
0.49934 2.00263 -0.16287 16.89978
0.50842 1.96686 -0.18325 16.69960
0.52218 1.91507 -0.21381 16.39935
0.54073 1.84936 -0.25456 15.99900
0.56422 1.77236 -0.30549 15.49857
0.58797 1.70077 -0.35643 14.998145
0.60710 1.64717 -0.39717 14.59780
0.65511 1.52647 -0.49904 13.59694
0.67424 1.48315 -0.53979 13.19660
0.71209 1.40431 -0.62129 12.39591
0.72606 1.37729 -0.65185 12.09566
0.84154 1.18830 -0.92690 9.39334
0.85644 1.16762 -0.96764 8.99299
0.88079 1.13535 -1.03895 8.29239
0.89050 1.12297 -1.06951 7.99214
0.99211 1.00795 -1.68073 1.98699

60.00000

450234638x + 0.0129125576 50.00000


f(x) = 1.0008583885x - 0.014730538
Gumbel - Met. Ven Te Chow

61416181
R² = 1
40.00000

30.00000
Column AB Column AF
Linear (Column AB) 20.00000 Linear (Column AF)

10.00000

0.00000
0 0.60 0.80 1.00 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0
ull Weillbul
10.00000

Gu
0.00000
0 0.60 0.80 1.00 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0
ull Weillbul
Column AF
Linear (Column AF)
Cuenca : Río Chillón
Estación : Canta
Pp.Máx.en
Pp.Máx.en 24
Año 24 horas Año
horas (mm)
1964 (mm)
16.0 1986 23.5
1965 13.6 1987 8.0
1966 15.0 1988 9.0
1967 22.7 1989 8.3
1968 12.1 1990 2.0
1969 21.3 1992 0.9
1970 51.2 1993 9.4
1971 13.2 1994 15.5
1972 25.7 1995 12.4
1973 23.6 1996 16.7
1974 16.9 1997 30.0
1975 18.6 1998 30.5
1976 18.2 1999 24.1
1977 32.8 2000 19.2
1978 17.6 2001 33.5
1979 16.4 2002 18.0
1980 14.6 Media 0.0
DesvEst. 0.0