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Roadmap
1.
Introduction to the Electric Vehicle Roadmap
and ocean energy, and with relatively hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) in the
short driving distances for most private vehicle fleet to 2050. It was
private vehicle users, electric vehicles developed alongside a wind energy
offer the prospect of reducing energy roadmap and a smart grid roadmap,
consumption in transport, while at and key assumptions across all three
the same time reducing our import of are aligned. Our roadmap builds on
fossil fuels, and providing an additional the work of the International Energy
demand to balance the supply of Agency to present the potential
variable renewable generation. The impacts of accelerated electric vehicle
development of high energy density deployment on energy demand,
lithium batteries, the inherently high fossil fuel imports, and CO2 emissions.
efficiencies of an electric drive train, The developments in policy,
The transport sector has been the and the current race between auto technology and infrastructure that
largest sectoral driver of energy manufacturers to bring credible will enable accelerated deployment
demand in Ireland over the past two commercial electric vehicles to market are also identified. The delivery of
decades, increasing at twice the rate is driving the cost of ownership an integrated low carbon energy
of increase in overall energy demand towards parity with conventional strategy that facilitates electric vehicle
over the same period. Private road vehicles. This means a transition deployment while increasing our use
transport is the largest contributor to electric vehicles could provide of zero carbon variable renewable
to transport demand at 43%, with air economic benefits as well as energy resources is achievable by 2050. This
transport and road freight contributing diversity and reduced CO2 emissions. roadmap highlights the substantial
less than 20% each. In the context of work required for its successful
an EU commitment to achieve an 80% Achieving the potential benefits delivery and, along with the other
reduction in carbon emissions by 2050, envisaged in a high electric vehicle roadmaps developed by SEAI, points
and concerns about future scarcity, deployment scenario assumes to a possible low carbon future for
alternatives to oil (particularly in private that a global high deployment Ireland.
road transport) must be encouraged. scenario is achieved, driving
technical innovation and providing I want to thank the many stakeholders
A number of alternative approaches scale economies, which Ireland’s who have contributed their time and
are emerging, with different options market cannot achieve on its their views to the development of this
being considered appropriate for own. In addition, it will require a roadmap, and to invite comments
different modes of transport. Biofuels strategic approach that integrates from other interested parties to
are being promoted for all transport, the deployment of electric vehicles roadmaps@seai.ie.
but may be of most value for road and variable renewable generation
freight and air transport, where length with the development of smart grid
of journey will require higher density technology, providing intelligence
fuels. Options to address private road across the system and enabling
transport include modal shift towards communications between system
public transport and cycling, and operators, vehicle charging systems,
technology advancements, including and generators.
more efficient internal combustion
engines (ICE) and electric vehicles (EV). This roadmap provides scenarios for
For Ireland, with access to large accelerated deployment of battery Prof. J Owen Lewis
amounts of variable renewable wind electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug in Chief Executive, SEAI
2.
Electric Vehicles Key Points
3.
EV Mean Deployment Scenario 2010 - 2050
20000
15000
New ICE
10000
Old ICE
5000
0
2010 2015 2020 2025
Incentives to secure early adoption and acceptance of EV technology and operational characteristics
Main policy support measures may include fiscal incentives along with soft incentives such as priority parking or congestion charge exemption
POLICY & SUPPORT
MEASURES EU CO2 regulations encouraging more investment in battery production facilities resulting in greater variety of BEV & PHEV models from mainstream automotive ma
Electrical trading system rules optimised for sale of electrical energy and electrical services to and from EVs
Commercial ready Lithium Ion and Lithium Polymer battery technology resulting in energy densities of
100 to 150 Wh/kg with manufacturing process feedback to battery design leading to reduced battery costs
High surface area and high ion current intercalation electrodes with advanced electrolyte
providing energy densities of 150 to 300 Wh/kg which could also suit retrofit applications
TECHNOLOGY
Lithium/carbon nanofi
Electrical trading system rules optimised for sale of electrical energy and electrical services to and from EVs
1500 charge
points
available to
CHARGING consumers
INFRASTRUCTURE 1500 to 9,000 charge points depending on battery range development rate
Automated b
Bi-Directional
H2 Fuel Cells
PHEV
BEV
fibers and advanced chemistries allowing energy densities of 300 to 600 Wh/kg
Vehicle to Grid Operations enabled through better battery lives and higher current discharge rates with probable assistance from on board vehicle capacitors
from first generation EVs to store off-peak electricity may be required in order to meet the need for higher volumes of electricity delivered at higher
battery to grid connection systems such as induction plates infrastructure enabling greater grid to vehicle and vehicle to grid opportunities
2
emission power system to be achieved by 2025
ht time demand
management services
l control – Enhanced battery and control systems enable Vehicle to Grid sale of energy and service
5.
Key Results
The key results are presented here for the Mean EV Deployment Scenario with
60% EV (BEV plus PHEV) and 18% H2 Fuel Cells car sales by 2050. The High and
Low Scenarios comprise the same overall car stock levels but differ by +/-20%
from the Mean EV levels. Note that new ICE vehicles sold from 2011 onwards
are subject to the EU prescribed CO2 emission improvements to 95 gCO2 /
km by 2020. The only form of renewable electricity included in the study is
wind power. Alternative transport fuels such as liquid biofuels and natural
gas are excluded, to focus exclusively on the effect of electricity in transport.
This will lead to conservative estimates of CO2 reduction and transport fuels
consumption. Results for all scenarios are presented in table form.
60.00%
3,000,000 Key Point: With EVs
comprising 60% of total
40.00%
car stock in 2050, the Mean
Stock
2,500,000
2011
0.00%
imports by 45% and overall vehicle
% Change
1,500,000
-20.00%
CO2 emissions by 73%. 45% of
Ireland’s passenger car energy will
Total
1,000,000
-40.00% be supplied from locally generated
wind power.
-60.00%
500,000
-80.00%0
2010
2011 2015
2015 2020
2020 2025
2025 2030
2030 2035
2035 2040
2040 2045
2045 2050
2050
year
year
Fleet Cummulative
Low Prices Cost Benefit
(Oil $110/bbl, Carbonfor Mean EV Deployment
€15/tonne) - 10 Year - High
Prices ($250/bbl, €35/t CO
Levelised Cost of Ownership2
) and Low Prices
(cent/km) ($110/bbl, €15/t CO2)
14,000
25.00
10,000
20.00 costs and km travelled for
8,000
a 10 year period and in the
absence of any supports,
million Euros
6,000
15.00
EVs will become a cost competitive
10 Year Levelised
25.0
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
year
New ICE BEV PHEV H2 Fuel Cell
6,000
ICE vehicles only fleet. Results are
shown for High and Low energy
4,000
prices. Once EV capital costs
2,000 become competitive, the operating
0 costs for the EV fleet over time
produces significant savings to
-2,000
society. An early uptake of EVs
-4,000 will provide protection for Irish
--6,000 consumers if exposed to high oil
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
year
prices in the near to medium term.
High Low
14.00%
increase in electricity
12.00% volume sales occurs
due to the high direct
10.00%
energy efficiency of the EVs. This
8.00%
will provide increased revenues
to support any additional
6.00% infrastructural demands due to the
growing EV market.
4.00%
2.00%
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
year
High Low Mean
7.
Key Results
High Scenario - Additional Winter Night MW Capacity
Requirement for EV & H2 Fleets for varying Night Charge Periods
Key Point: Critical use of
9,000 electrical grid occurs during
8,000 winter peak demand.
Assuming nominal grid
7,000
development, significant capacity
6,000 should exist for night time EV
charging. Control of charging
5,000
window during the night time
MW
Winter Peak Winter Valley 5hr Night Charge 6hr Night Charge
7hr Night Charge 8hr Night Charge
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
year
90%
Key Point: EVs’ share of
80% annual sales grows to
70% 42% by 2020, enabling
Ireland to meet the 10% EV
60%
penetration target, and to 60% by
50% 2050, resulting in 1.8m EVs in a total
40% car stock of 2.9m vehicles.
30%
20%
10%
0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
year
9.
The Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland
is partly financed by Ireland’s EU Structural Funds
Programme co-funded by the Irish Government This document is printed on
and the European Union. environmentally friendly paper stock
10.