Vietnam’s Approach to

A i P ifi Security
Asia-Pacific S it

Professor
P f Carlyle
C l l A A. Thayer
Th
Presentation to Security & Strategic Studies B
Strategic & Defence Studies Centre
The Australian National University
August 31
31, 2010
 Ch
Changing
i World
W ld Vi
Views
Z Antagonistic contradictions between
socialism and capitalism
Z ‘who will triumph over whom’/friends
and enemies
Z Member of socialist camp led by USSR
Z Global integration equals assimilation
 Ch
Changing
i World
W ld Vi
Views
Z Multi-directional
M l i di i l foreign
f i policy
li (1991)
Z Four dangers (1994)
Z ‘friend and reliable partner with all
countries
i in
i the
h world’
ld’ (2001)
Z Interdependent world/integration
Z Comprehensive security
 Key Questions

1. How is Vietnam responding to the rise

of China?
2. Why is Vietnam recalibrating its
relations with the United States?
3 What is Vietnam’s
3. Vietnam s strategic significance
as the Asian century unfolds?
 Vietnam and Risingg China
Mature
Asymmery
•Acknowledge
A k l d
ment of China
Viet Nam pre-eminence
•Acknowledge
ment of
Vietnam’s
autonomy
Asymmetric Relations
 Vietnam’ss 3 Strategies
Vietnam
Relegate contentious issues to 
technical working groups

Promote multilateral efforts

Self‐help – develop defence
capacity
 Long‐term 
Agreements

Joint Steering 
Defence ties
Committee

Economic  High‐level 
relations party visits
party visits

High‐level 
High level
state visits
Bilateral Issues
 D f
Defence White
Whit Paper
P 2009
Z Southeast
S h Asia:
A i ‘basically
‘b i ll stable
bl security
i
situation’
Z Potential risks of conflict still remain
Z Territorial
T i i l di disputes over land
l d and
d sea
have been more complicated, in
particular
i l those
h relating
l i to sovereignty
i
and national interests in the East Sea
h
have been
b on the
h rise’
i ’
 Maritime Strategy
T
Towards
d the
th Year
Y 2020
$11 billion 
deficit 
with China
with China

Economic 
and Trade 
Relations
$9 billion
$9 billion 
surplus 
with the 
US
 Balancing, Engagement,
H d i or Omni-enmeshment?
Hedging O i h t?

President Nguyen
Minh Triet in Beijing
j g
May 2007

President Nguyen Minh

Triet in Washington
June 2007
Recalibration of Relations
 D f
Defence R l ti
Relations
• Exchanges of Defence Ministers
2000 2003 (turning point),
2000, point) 2006 and 2009

• Political, Security and Defense Dialogue (2008)

• S
State & Foreign
F i Affairs
Aff i

• Defense Policy Dialogue (August 2010)

• Deputy Assistant Secretary-Vice Minister
 USS JohnD.
JohnD Stennis US Nuclear submarine Pacific
April 2009 Command December 2009

USS George H.W. Bush Aug 2010 USS George Washington Aug 2010
 1st JJoint N
Naval Engagement
g g
Activities (Aug 2010)

15th Anniversary of US-Vietnam Diplomatic Relations

USS John S S. McCain makes port call Da Nang
 Th
Three No’s
N ’

1. No military alliances
2. No foreign military bases on
Vietnamese territory
3. No use of third countries to combat
another country
 Vietnam’s Strategic
g Significance
g

1 South China Sea littoral state

1.
2. Emerging
g g middle income country
y
3. Gradual defence modernisation
4. Key player in ASEAN
5 Key player in regional architecture
5.
6. Potential strategic
g p partner of US
ASEAN Defence Ministers Plus 8

China

Russia USA

New
A t li
Australia ASEAN Zealand

South
Japan
Korea

India
Plus USA & Russia
 Vietnam’s Approach to
A i P ifi Security
Asia-Pacific S it

Professor
P f Carlyle
C l l A A. Thayer
Th
Presentation to Security & Strategic Studies B
Strategic & Defence Studies Centre
The Australian National University
August 31
31, 2010