‘We’re doomed’: Mayer Hillman on the climate reality

no one else will dare mention

4/28/2018

“We’re doomed,” says Mayer Hillman with such a beaming smile that it takes a moment for
the words to sink in. “The outcome is death, and it’s the end of most life on the planet
because we’re so dependent on the burning of fossil fuels. There are no means of reversing
the process which is melting the polar ice caps. And very few appear to be prepared to say
so.”

Hillman, an 86-year-old social scientist and senior fellow emeritus of the Policy Studies
Institute, does say so. His bleak forecast of the consequence of runaway climate change, he
says without fanfare, is his “last will and testament”. His last intervention in public life. “I’m
not going to write anymore because there’s nothing more that can be said,” he says when I
first hear him speak to a stunned audience at the University of East Anglia late last year.

From Malthus to the Millennium Bug, apocalyptic thinking has a poor track record. But when it
issues from Hillman, it may be worth paying attention. Over nearly 60 years, his research has
used factual data to challenge policymakers’ conventional wisdom. In 1972, he criticised out-
of-town shopping centres more than 20 years before the government changed planning rules
to stop their spread. In 1980, he recommended halting the closure of branch line railways –
only now are some closed lines reopening. In 1984, he proposed energy ratings for houses –
finally adopted as government policy in 2007. And, more than 40 years ago, he presciently
challenged society’s pursuit of economic growth.

When we meet at his converted coach house in London, his classic Dawes racer still parked
hopefully in the hallway (a stroke and a triple heart bypass mean he is – currently – forbidden
from cycling), Hillman is anxious we are not side-tracked by his best-known research, which
challenged the supremacy of the car.

“With doom ahead, making a case for cycling as the primary mode of transport is almost
irrelevant,” he says. “We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many aspects of life depend on
fossil fuels, except for music and love and education and happiness. These things, which
hardly use fossil fuels, are what we must focus on.”

While the focus of Hillman’s thinking for the last quarter-century has been on climate change,
he is best known for his work on road safety. He spotted the damaging impact of the car on
the freedoms and safety of those without one – most significantly, children – decades ago.
Some of his policy prescriptions have become commonplace – such as 20mph speed limits –
but we’ve failed to curb the car’s crushing of children’s liberty. In 1971, 80% of British seven-
and eight-year-old children went to school on their own; today it’s virtually unthinkable that a
seven-year-old would walk to school without an adult. As Hillman has pointed out, we’ve
removed children from danger rather than removing danger from children – and filled roads
with polluting cars on school runs. He calculated that escorting children took 900m adult hours
in 1990, costing the economy £20bn each year. It will be even more expensive today.
Our society’s failure to comprehend the true cost of cars has informed Hillman’s view on the
difficulty of combatting climate change. But he insists that I must not present his thinking on
climate change as “an opinion”. The data is clear; the climate is warming exponentially. The
UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that the world on its current course
will warm by 3C by 2100. Recent revised climate modelling suggested a best estimate of
2.8C but scientists struggle to predict the full impact of the feedbacks from future events such
as methane being released by the melting of the permafrost.

Hillman believes society has failed to challenge the supremacy of the car. Photograph:
Lenscap / Alamy Stock Photo/Alamy Stock Photo

Hillman is amazed that our thinking rarely stretches beyond 2100. “This is what I find so
extraordinary when scientists warn that the temperature could rise to 5C or 8C. What, and
stop there? What legacies are we leaving for future generations? In the early 21st century, we
did as good as nothing in response to climate change. Our children and grandchildren are
going to be extraordinarily critical.”

Global emissions were static in 2016 but the concentration of carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere was confirmed as beyond 400 parts per million, the highest level for at least
three million years (when sea levels were up to 20m higher than now). Concentrations can
only drop if we emit no carbon dioxide whatsoever, says Hillman. “Even if the world went
zero-carbon today that would not save us because we’ve gone past the point of no return.”

Although Hillman has not flown for more than 20 years as part of a personal commitment to
reducing carbon emissions, he is now scornful of individual action which he describes as “as
good as futile”. By the same logic, says Hillman, national action is also irrelevant “because
Britain’s contribution is minute. Even if the government were to go to zero carbon it would
make almost no difference.”

Instead, says Hillman, the world’s population must globally move to zero emissions across
agriculture, air travel, shipping, heating homes – every aspect of our economy – and reduce
our human population too. Can it be done without a collapse of civilisation? “I don’t think so,”
says Hillman. “Can you see everyone in a democracy volunteering to give up flying? Can you
see the majority of the population becoming vegan? Can you see the majority agreeing to
restrict the size of their families?”

Hillman doubts that human ingenuity can find a fix and says there is no evidence that
greenhouse gases can be safely buried. But if we adapt to a future with less – focusing on
Hillman’s love and music – it might be good for us. “And who is ‘we’?” asks Hillman with a
typically impish smile. “Wealthy people will be better able to adapt but the world’s population
will head to regions of the planet such as northern Europe which will be temporarily spared the
extreme effects of climate change. How are these regions going to respond? We see it now.
Migrants will be prevented from arriving. We will let them drown.”

A small band of artists and writers, such as Paul Kingsnorth’s Dark Mountain project, have
embraced the idea that “civilisation” will soon end in environmental catastrophe but only a few
scientists – usually working beyond the patronage of funding bodies, and nearing the end of
their own lives – have suggested as much. Is Hillman’s view a consequence of old age, and ill
 health? “I was saying these sorts of things 30 years ago when I was hale and hearty,” he
says.

Hillman accuses all kinds of leaders – from religious leaders to scientists to politicians – of
failing to honestly discuss what we must do to move to zero-carbon emissions. “I don’t think
they can because society isn’t organised to enable them to do so. Political parties’ focus is on
jobs and GDP, depending on the burning of fossil fuels.”

Without hope, goes the truism, we will give up. And yet optimism about the future is wishful
thinking, says Hillman. He believes that accepting that our civilisation is doomed could make
humanity rather like an individual who recognises he is terminally ill. Such people rarely go on
a disastrous binge; instead, they do all they can to prolong their lives.

Can civilisation prolong its life until the end of this century? “It depends on what we are
prepared to do.” He fears it will be a long time before we take proportionate action to stop
climatic calamity. “Standing in the way is capitalism. Can you imagine the global airline
industry being dismantled when hundreds of new runways are being built right now all over
the world? It’s almost as if we’re deliberately attempting to defy nature. We’re doing the
reverse of what we should be doing, with everybody’s silent acquiescence, and nobody’s
batting an eyelid.”

Guardian

31 Comments on "‘We’re doomed’: Mayer Hillman on the climate reality no one else will
dare mention"
1. makati1 on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 5:40 am

“Can civilisation prolong its life until the end of this century? “It depends on what we are prepared
to do.” He fears it will be a long time before we take proportionate action to stop climatic calamity.
“Standing in the way is capitalism. Can you imagine the global airline industry being dismantled
when hundreds of new runways are being built right now all over the world? It’s almost as if we’re
deliberately attempting to defy nature. We’re doing the reverse of what we should be doing, with
everybody’s silent acquiescence, and nobody’s batting an eyelid.””
Humans are committing species suicide. 2100? Sooner, I think. Maybe much sooner.
2. Davy on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 6:06 am

Climate change indeed will likely get us in the end but there are other issues that may get us
sooner. In any case it is the summation of all the issues converging and combining into one big
predicament that will end modernism. I say this with less doom than in the past. It may be the
 case we still have a decade or two of decline and decay before the bottom falls out. This may not
be a cataclysmic end. It might be a long drawn out terminal illness with smaller cataclysmic local
ends. Does anyone really have a clue how things will end? Many default to mad max but this is just
an example of human drama or there is denial with all is just fine. In between there is the wise
men.
Many of us here early on had a doom agenda going on. We had it all mapped out then several
things changed and now where are the doomers? Doom is not the dominant topic here anymore.
The hardcore doomers are mostly gone but I caution the techno optimist with their cornucopian
ways. This will not end well and let’s give thanks for some breathing room. Let’s tell those who will
listen we can do some things to prolong life and make what is ahead less painful for ourselves and
nature. Yet, first we need to acknowledge we are at the cusp of an end. Getting out of denial is the
prerequisite to change and renewal. Our renewal will not be with a material golden age like the
cornucopians are proselyting but with a spiritual advancement.
Most of all what we can do is local. We can try to be real green and we can learn to have less. We
can expand spiritually with more wisdom. Here I define wisdom as the knowledge of what ordinary
knowledge to gain and how to use it. Where modern man went wrong is with his wisdom. He lost
his wisdom from losing his scale and his place within things. The car culture is a prime example of
losing scale with a well-honed planetary system that is far advance to ours and being destroyed by
our own subsystem. Our population has grown too much and the competitive cooperation driven by
succeed and advance or you will be taken over has driven man to embrace any knowledge that
advances with horrible results. These advances are not necessarily good advances and that is
where wisdom has failed us. We can’t say no to more technology or consumption.
It is a reality of a finite world that real wisdom would embrace limits. It would know when to say
no and that would be long before we got near dangerous boundaries. So this points to some of us
creating monasteries of knowledge for the future generation to have a store house of wisdom. We
can reflect on where we are and know what is wise and what is not. This is not hard to do once the
proper mentality is gained. We can give guidance and pass on wisdom for those who are younger
and who care.
Does it matter what happens to humans? If you see life holistically and in a timeless sense then
you understand the power of nature and by extension the universe. Our knowledge is universal
because we are one with the universe if you see this connectivity. If you don’t then you are still
lost in the immature ego of the tortured dualistic self. It is the realization of this universal
connectivity and the getting lost in our ego that is the dance of life for humans. Extinction and
evolution go hand and hand. There was a big bang and there may be a big end but in the here and
now we have a people and our small band or tribe.
We should return to what matters at least at our local. Man’s civilization is likely on its last leg. It is
in a slow crash and burn of a slow boil. We are near a phase change of boundaries. It is in this little
space of maybe a few decades we can still live in and prosper. Enjoy life if you can now because for
many it will likely be downhill from here on out. That said it can also be a time of enlightenment.
Some of the best of what is human has come out in the worst of times because there is something
about adversity that cleanses and strengthens our species. It is the times of affluence when we
degenerate.
3. Cloggie on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 6:49 am

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayer_Hillman
 100% renewable energy and reducing the global car fleet of 1 billion to 50 million shared e-
robocars and working from home/neighborhood office via the cloud.
This is possible. If it is enough, only time will tell.
4. Davy on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 6:55 am

“This is possible. If it is enough, only time will tell.”

Maybe locally and only for a short time. This decline can be Byzantine and follow a balkanization of
globalism but no one knows because we are in uncharted waters.
5. muhammed atta on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 7:07 am

Chris Korda for World President!!!! Save the Planet, Kill yourself!!!!
6. Spencer Selander on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 7:10 am

We do have way to safely bury carbon through soil carbon sequestration. Hillman has ignored this,
while also missing part of the problem – the world’s cultivated soils have lost between 50 and 70
percent of their original carbon stock, much of which has oxidized upon exposure to air to become
CO2. This can be reversed, and more than reversed, through regenerative agricultural practices,
reducing atmospheric CO2 while also boosting soil productivity and increasing resilience to floods
and drought.
While many farmers are adopting some of those practices, such as cover cropping, because of
those benefits, agribusiness will not do enough without a push. The market forces farmers to
maximize short-term returns, and the benefits of increasing soil carbon are long-term. We need to
pay farmers for sequestering carbon, perhaps financed by carbon tax. While there are difficulties
measuring the amount of carbon being sequestered, we must not let that stop us – it needs to
happen.
We must also stop pushing our industrial agriculture practiced in the developing world. Instead,
help their farmers to increase productivity by increasing soil carbon. If we allow the purveyors of
such quick-fix solutions as chemical fertilizers and pesticide to continue promoting their ware in
those countries it will only lead to disaster.
7. Sunspot on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 7:23 am
 None of this is news to me. I’ve watched videos by Guy McPherson. And I go here
regularly. http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/ I’ll take the truth, please, no matter how ugly it is.
8. Kelly on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 7:46 am

I too have been saying this for many years. It became apparent to me as a child that
overpopulation and anthropogenic warming would kill us all off. Humans NEVER do what they need
to do until the last moment. As the Red Queen thesis in math shows, sooner or later, we will not
react (or be able to react) in time.
9. Edward Nieh on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 7:51 am

The truth about the US and the Industrial nations’ role in Climate change.
Speaking in Paris, Kerry said:
“The fact is that even if every American citizen biked to work, carpooled to school, used only solar
panels to power their homes, if we each planted a dozen trees, if we somehow eliminated all of our
domestic greenhouse gas emissions, guess what – that still wouldn’t be enough to offset the
carbon pollution coming from the rest of the world.
“If all the industrial nations went down to zero emissions – remember what I just said, all the
industrial emissions went down to zero emissions – it wouldn’t be enough, not when more than 65
percent of the world’s carbon pollution comes from the developing world.”
He’s exactly right. Paul Knappenberger and Patrick Michaels estimate that the climate regulations
the Obama administration are imposing on the energy sector – costs that will be passed down to
households – will avert a meager 0.018 degree Celsius of warming by the year 2100.
In fact, the U.S. could cut 100 percent of its CO2 emissions and it would not make a difference in
global warming.
Have a nice day!
10. ken on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 7:53 am

These are his opinions. He is not qualified to make such statements. Why do the leftist or socialist
need to live with an ethereal opinion of earth? IMHO
11. Davy on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 7:59 am
 SS, you guys can’t appreciate scale. Besides, have you ever farmed? Your Ag planting technics all
have tradeoffs and one big one is lower productivity of resulting production. Actual productivity and
fertility increases holistically but not production. We are in a time of overpopulation so any large
scale changes like this will have real world consequences in food carrying capacity. I am all for
what you mentioned but do not believe it a solution to climate change. It is an adaptation strategy
for decline. It is the right strategy for the end of modernism but not a solution.
12. Marshall Brown on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 8:13 am

If one considers the purpose of life as the fostering of the next generation it becomes painfully
obvious that intelligence is an evolutionary dead end. The saddest part being that as it approaches
the end it may well bring down all other life forms with it.
13. twocats on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 8:22 am

“Instead, says Hillman, the world’s population must globally move to zero emissions across
agriculture, air travel, shipping, heating homes – every aspect of our economy – and reduce our
human population too. Can it be done without a collapse of civilisation? “I don’t think so,” says
Hillman.”
if your answer to that question is anything other than “I don’t think so” you really don’t belong on
this site and you might want to check a mirror because you’re probably a troll.
“Can you see everyone in a democracy volunteering to give up flying? Can you see the majority of
the population becoming vegan? Can you see the majority agreeing to restrict the size of their
families?””
and that’s where the rubber meets the road – who do you coordinate a global synchronized effort
like that without complete totalitarianism or collapse.
“Hillman doubts that human ingenuity can find a fix and says there is no evidence that greenhouse
gases can be safely buried.”
yup and it takes energy to bury it. and we don’t have a good track record of disposing of waste
products we don’t like (nuclear, coal slurry, frack water reinjection).
““And who is ‘we’?” asks Hillman with a typically impish smile. “Wealthy people will be better able
to adapt but the world’s population will head to regions of the planet such as northern Europe
which will be temporarily spared the extreme effects of climate change.””
given how cold this spring and winter have been I wouldn’t be so sure about this. if the AMOC
currents continue to slow or even stop Northern Europe could drop into a freezer.
14. Ron Combs on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 8:28 am
 We know that man puts out 4% of the total CO2 and the earth puts out 96%. Yet, man is to blame
for the problem. What utter stupidity.
15. Mikey on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 8:31 am

I understand his position, but maybe his data is incomplete. Just for instance. What if there was a
major pandemic that reduced the population enough to significantly cut fossil fuel use? Oh yes, it
would be traumatic, but life goes on.
I write about long-term human survival, by strategic and genetic adaptation. The premise is that
we left our last stable ecology, the so-called tribal hunter-gatherer ecology and we need to find a
new long term ecology to survive in rather than the transient ecologies we have been going
through since we started farming and cities. Looking at it that way reveals a lot that I know has
not been looked at by others. Yes, things are scary. There are great dangers besides global
warming. Still, I see potentials that I think few see.
I’ll ask you a question. When will humanity finally grow up? You’ve heard that question before in
some way or another. When will humans start to act like more than animals? Do you think then
that we could find a way to stop causing climate change and survive what is already in motion?
Well, I know when humans will grow up. It won’t be long. It’s not complicated. We will soon come
face to face with just one more of “those problems”. This one though is going to hit us in our
instincts and is one that we can do something about. If we do, we will become far more than
animals.

Genetics For A New Human Ecology

… Soon – Strategy For A New Human Ecology.
16. John Wilson on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 8:36 am

There is still too much resistance to the idea of climate warming. It will take another generation for
the idea to gain enough mass to become critical.
17. Davy on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 8:50 am

Mikey, a major pandemic could end our modern world. It has been shown that as far as modernism
is concerned only 10% or so of the population is systematically important. A pandemic will strike
with impunity with regards to human importance. So such an event may lower population but also
end our species in ways similiar to climate change. IOW it might salvage a planet but maybe not
our species.
18. Mimi on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 8:51 am
 Shouldn’t the man’s theories on climate change be questioned at least somewhat given that his
failed “peak oil” theories were supposed to pertain to the 1970’s and were discredited a decade ago
? (Since that the Bakken and Marcellus shale fields added enough oil reserves to last us for another
what, 400 years? A very recent study by climate scientists just concluded that the models used to
forecast climate change over estimated the earth’s temperature rise by 45%.
19. MASTERMIND on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 9:10 am

We don’t have enough fossil fuels to reach the high estimates of the IPCC and when the economic
collapse happens. That’s game over. And carbon emission will drop to zero. we should not be
worried about the planet but the human species.
https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa
20. robert on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 9:13 am

ken on sun…you conservatives have your heads up your asses….the ONLY people on the planet in
denial of the obvious are US conservatives..no where else on the entire PLANET are there people
ignorant enough to believe POLITICIANS that lie for corporations..
21. JON HARRIS on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 9:56 am

Human selfishness & greed have brought us to this place & time. I don’t think human nature will
change altruistically in time. We’ll be lucky to reach 2100 as a viable species on this earth. The
collateral damage will be immense!
22. Frankie on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 9:57 am

Cut our meat consumption in half. And stop the clear cutting of forests.
Do those two things and the planet will be OK
23. MASTERMIND on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 10:03 am
 Robet
Yes, denial is the strongest weapon of people on the right. They deny overpopulation, that is why
they reject birth control and abortions. They deny climate change. They deny evolution. They deny
gun laws reduce gun violence. They deny their own mortality and think you go to heaven when you
die. They deny tax cuts for the wealthy, doesn’t create prosperity for the rest.
24. Davy on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 10:15 am

Frankie, forget it because it won’t be ok becuase you are

not offering a solution. You are putting forward two great ideas but the time for solutions to be ok
are long since last. I should remind you to differentiate between animal rearing. Grass fed animals
are beneficial to nature’s cycles if properly managed. We also should be using more animal power
for agriculture and transport. Where we need to reduce meat consumption is grain fed beaf. A
significant amount of the planets potential to raise human food includes areas that can only be
grazed. You can’t grow crops or other plant based products in these places with out damaging the
ecosystem. We should not be taking down any more forest especially rainforest. This is
manageable by better forest management and set asides. Two great ideas but no solution.
25. Cloggie on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 10:27 am

Quietly a fifth renewable energy front is being opened in Europe, after hydro, biomass, solar and
wind: tidal power.
Spearheaded in Scotland and with likely follow-up in France:
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2018/04/29/meygen-tidal-power/
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2018/04/29/1-2-gw-tidal-power-plans-in-france/
Germany, Holland, Britain and Denmark maybe blessed with shallow water, suitable for the
installation of giant wind turbines, Scotland and France have deeper waters with fast currents.
The density of water is 1000 times higher than that of air, meaning that the same rotor surface
yields 1000 times more energy at the same speed.
The potential is in the many GW’s.
26. Nigel on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 10:31 am
 War and all the things associated with it are devastating to the environment. Just the
manufacturing of planes, tanks, etc..uses tremendous amounts of fossil fuels. total insanity. The
US alone detonated over 2,500 above ground tests, A lot of heat and energy pumped into the
atmosphere.
27. JuanP on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 10:35 am

Good article. I gave up flying for over a decade with the understanding that it was just a symbolic
action. A few years back I started flying again when it became completely pointless even as a
symbol. Individual actions are completely irrelevant. We are doomed. Our predicament is an
inevitable consequence of our nature. We are too smart but not clever enough.
28. joe on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 10:37 am

Guy mcpherson gives us even less time than 2100.

29. MikeL on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 11:00 am

What’s so bad about the melting of polar ice caps? It’s a slow and . predictable process resulting in
more fresh water availability.
Climate has been changing for thousands of years; it’s the nature of things.
30. Tom Servo on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 11:00 am

“global warming” is the new Hellfire and Brimstone Religion for people who claim they’re too smart
to fall for a Hellfire and Brimstone Religion.
REPENT YE, REPENT YE, O YE EVILDOERS, OR YE SHALL ALL PERISH IN FLAME! AND TO PROVE
YOUR CONTRITION, YE MUST GIVE ALL YOUR WORLDLY GOODS TO US, THE PROPHETS WHO
OFFER YOU THE DIVINE WISDOM!!! REPENT YE, OR YE EVILDOERS, OR YE SHALL SURELY DIE!!!!
it’s the same old game as always.
31. MASTERMIND on Sun, 29th Apr 2018 11:01 am
Every one cent increase in gasoline prices, reduces US household purchasing power by $1 billion.
https://media0.giphy.com/media/3og0IMJcSI8p6hYQXS/giphy.gif