POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 30th APRIL 2018, 6 AM EST

Ontario
Voter Intentions
Party Leaders’ Favourability Ratings
30th April 2018
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results
of a survey conducted between April 16th
to April 18th, 2018 among a sample of 1763
adults, 18 years of age or older, living in
Ontario. The survey was conducted using
automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR).
Respondents were interviews on landlines
and cellular phones.
The sampling frame was derived from both
a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources and
random digit dialing. The part of the survey
that dialed from the directory was conducted
as a stratified dial of the following regions;
Toronto (also known as the 416 region),
the Greater Toronto Area (also known as
the 905 region), South Central Ontario,
Southwestern Ontario, Eastern Ontario, and
Northern Ontario. In the case of random digit
dials, respondents were asked the additional
question of what region of the province they
resided in.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet
Research and was not sponsored by a third
party.
The margin of error for this survey is +/- 2.33%
and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all
three levels of government, President and CEO
Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
international public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
was the only polling firm to correctly predict a
Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal
election. Mainstreet also accurately predicted
the Miami & New York City Mayoral elections.
and the Alabama special election in 2017.
Mainstreet Research is a member of the World
Association for Public Opinion Research and
meets international and Canadian publication
standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
FORD PC LEAD OVER LIBERALS AND NDP HAS NARROWED

30 APRIL 2018 (TORONTO, ON) – Although the gap between the PCs and Liberals has narrowed,
Doug Ford is still in pole position to become the next Premier of Ontario come June.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten provincial
polls. The poll surveyed 1763 Ontarians between April 16th and April 18th. The poll has a margin of
error of +/- 2.33 % and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“We are not surprised to see the PCs come down in support from our previous poll,” said Quito
Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “They have surrendered their lead in Toronto to
the Liberals, but there is no doubt that the PCs will be starting the campaign as the frontrunners.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs lead with 44.9% (-5.4% from our previous poll), with
the Liberals led by Kathleen Wynne currently at 28.2% (+4.3%). The NDP led by Andrea Horwath
currently enjoy 21.3% (+3%), while the Greens with Mike Schreiner are at 4% (-1.2%).

“The NDP and the Liberals can take some solace that they have made up ground on the PCs, but
they will need the PC vote to collapse in order to catch up,” continued Maggi. “The PCs have large
leads in every region in Ontario except Toronto.”

The poll also has some firsts for the NDP. It is the first time this year that the NDP have passed 20%
in Mainstreet polling and that more respondents say that have a positive impression of Horwath
than those who say that they don’t have an opinion of her.

“These numbers are good news for the NDP and may be showing signs of momentum for the NDP,”
added Maggi. “However, if this increase continues, the progressive vote will split and further help
the Conservatives win the election.”

Each party leader’s favourability ratings tells the same story as our previous polling. Wynne’s
net favourability rating has improved by ten points but still remains a dismal -35.6%. Ford’s net
favourability rating is still tellingly negative despite his party’s lead (-6.5%). And once again,
Horwath’s net rating is positive and has increased six points to +14%.

“The mood remains the same in Ontario,” concluded Maggi. “Voters seem to be angry with the
Liberals and they are now opting to vote for the PCs just because they are not the Liberals. People
are still ambivalent about Ford, but we are seeing signs of significant voter volatility that could turn
into shifts in voter support come election day.”

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Dr. Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
If a provincial election were held today, which
All Voters
party would you vote for?

8.9%
1.5%
3.1% 25.3%

19.4%

All Voters

Decided and Leaning Voters

41.8%

1.6%
Liberals Progressive Conservatives NDP Greens
4%
Another Party Undecided
28.2%
21.3%

Decided and Leaning Voters

44.9%

Liberals Progressive Conservatives NDP Greens

If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
(regional breakouts)

42.3%
32.8%
Toronto

21.2%
3.0%
0.8%

27.8%
48.9%
GTA

18.0%
4.0%
1.2%

29.2%
44.0%
East

21.0%
4.5%
1.2%

27.3%
South Central

44.6%
23.8%
2.2%
2.0%

14.9%
Southwestern

53.9%
22.6%
5.2%
3.5%

21.5%
44.3%
North

28.7%
4.8%
0.7%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

Liberals Progressive Conservatives NDP Greens

 Which party, if any, would be your second
choice?
Liberals PCs

5.9%
11.2%

34.6%

29.5%

Liberals
Liberals
54.2%
PCs

45.3%
1%
8.5%

NDP 7.9%
Greens 7%

25.2% 3.3%

PCs NDP
19.6% Greens Another Party No Second Choice Liberals NDP Greens Another Party No Second Choice
21%

31.4%
34.8%

1.3% 1.2% Liberals

NDP
7.8% Greens
10.6%

21.6%
3.4% 57.3%

22.7% 33.5%

Liberals PCs Greens PCs NDP

Another Party Greens
No Second Choice Another Party
Liberals PCsNo Second
NDP Choice
Another Party No Second Choice
 How likely are you to change your vote from
your first choice to your second choice?
berals PCs

11.4% 10.1% 8.3%

13%

13.3%

19.8%

Greens
Liberals PCs

33.1%

21.4%
47%

15.6% 15.5%
DP 22.8%
Greens

8.7% 6.9%
15.6% 15.5%
Very Likely Somewhat Likely Somewhat Unlikely Very Likely Somewhat Likely Somewhat Unlikely

Very Unlikely Not Sure Very Unlikely Not Sure

Greens
28.1%
27.7% 25.4%
28%
NDP Greens
25.4%
28%

15.6%
28.6% 15.6%

Very Likely Very

Somewhat Likely Likely
Somewhat Somewhat
Unlikely Likely Somewhat
Very Likely Unlikely
Somewhat Likely Somewhat Unlikely

Very Unlikely Not Sure Very Unlikely Not Sure Very Unlikely Not Sure
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion
of [PROVINCIAL PARTY LEADER]?

110

100

90 11.7%
12.7%
80 15.3%

70
34.9%
60
30.6%

50

40
43.6% 21.9%
30 36.6%
59.3%
20

16.8%
10

0 23.7% 37.1% 35.9% 11.7%

Wynne Ford Horwath Schreiner

Favourable Not Favourable Not Sure Not Familiar

Breakouts
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
18- 35- 50- South
All Male Female 65+ Toronto GTA East Southwestern North
34 49 64 Central
Liberals led by Kathleen Wynne 25.3% 20.7% 29.7% 27% 21% 26.3% 27.1% 37.6% 25.1% 24.5% 25.6% 13.8% 20.2%
Progressive Conservatives led by
41.8% 52.6% 31.5% 30.8% 45.3% 47.5% 45.2% 30% 46.2% 40.5% 43.4% 49.1% 42.3%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea Horwath 19.4% 14.3% 24.1% 24.3% 22.3% 15.5% 13.5% 19.7% 16.2% 18.5% 22.8% 20.1% 27%
Greens led by Mike Schreiner 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 4.2% 3.5% 2% 2.5% 2% 2.2% 4.3% 2.2% 5% 3.7%
Another Party 1.5% 1.4% 1.7% 1.7% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% 0.8% 1.2% 1.1% 1.4% 3.4% 0.6%
Undecided 8.9% 7.8% 9.9% 11.9% 6.4% 7.1% 10.2% 10% 9.1% 11.2% 4.6% 8.6% 6.2%
Unweighted Frequency 1763 938 825 297 432 507 527 363 473 278 151 387 111
Weighted Frequency 1763 867 896 495 444 484 340 410 485 236 157 368 108

(leaning and undecided voters)

18- 35- 50- South
All Male Female 65+ Toronto GTA East Southwestern North
34 49 64 Central
Liberals led by Kathleen Wynne 26.9% 22.5% 31% 29.9% 22% 27.3% 28.2% 39.5% 26.7% 27.7% 26.8% 14.4% 20.7%
Progressive Conservatives led by
43.1% 53.6% 33.2% 32.5% 46.5% 48.4% 46.9% 30.7% 47.1% 41.7% 44% 52.2% 42.9%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea Horwath 20.4% 15.1% 25.3% 25.4% 23.5% 16.2% 14.7% 19.9% 17.3% 19.9% 23.4% 21.8% 27.7%
Greens led by Mike Schreiner 3.8% 3.5% 4.1% 5.8% 3.7% 2.4% 2.9% 2.8% 3.9% 4.3% 2.2% 5% 4.7%
Another Party 1.6% 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.4% 1.6% 1.5% 0.8% 1.2% 1.1% 1.9% 3.4% 0.6%
Undecided 4.3% 3.8% 4.7% 4.7% 2.8% 4% 5.8% 6.4% 3.8% 5.4% 1.6% 3.3% 3.4%
Unweighted Frequency 1763 938 825 297 432 507 527 363 473 278 151 387 111
Weighted Frequency 1763 867 896 495 444 484 340 410 485 236 157 368 108

(decided and leaning voters)

18- 35- 50- South
All Male Female 65+ Toronto GTA East Southwestern North
34 49 64 Central
Liberals led by Kathleen Wynne 28.2% 23.5% 32.7% 31.5% 22.8% 28.5% 30.1% 42.3% 27.8% 29.2% 27.3% 14.9% 21.5%
Progressive Conservatives led by
44.9% 55.5% 34.8% 33.9% 47.7% 50.3% 49.7% 32.8% 48.9% 44% 44.6% 53.9% 44.3%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea Horwath 21.3% 15.8% 26.5% 26.7% 24.2% 16.9% 15.5% 21.2% 18% 21% 23.8% 22.6% 28.7%
Greens led by Mike Schreiner 4% 3.7% 4.2% 6.1% 3.8% 2.5% 3.1% 3% 4.0% 4.5% 2.2% 5.2% 4.8%
Another Party 1.6% 1.5% 1.7% 1.8% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 2% 3.5% 0.7%
Unweighted Frequency 1689 903 786 283 420 488 498 339 456 264 149 375 106
Weighted Frequency 1689 830 859 474 425 464 326 393 464 226 151 352 103

Which party, if any, would be your second choice?

18- 35- 50- South
All Male Female 65+ Toronto GTA East Southwestern North
34 49 64 Central
Liberals led by Kathleen
16.9% 12.6% 21.1% 23% 15.2% 13.6% 14.9% 21.7% 20.4% 14.5% 16.2% 10.7% 10.4%
Wynne
PCs led by Doug Ford 19.7% 20.1% 19.2% 15.8% 21.9% 22% 19% 17.5% 21.4% 16.1% 21.3% 22.4% 16.3%
NDP led by Andrea Horwath 29.4% 29.1% 29.8% 27.9% 27% 31.5% 32% 31.7% 27% 34% 27.5% 28% 29.9%
Greens led by Mike Schreiner 10.5% 10.6% 10.4% 13.7% 12.4% 7.6% 7.6% 11.1% 7.4% 7.6% 10.2% 13.7% 18.2%
Another Party 2.5% 3.4% 1.7% 4.8% 1.9% 1.4% 1.6% 1.5% 1.2% 4.4% 3.2% 3.4% 4%
No Second Choice 21% 24.2% 17.8% 14.9% 21.6% 23.9% 24.9% 16.5% 22.7% 23.4% 21.6% 21.8% 21.1%
Unweighted Frequency 1689 903 786 283 420 488 498 339 456 264 149 375 106
Weighted Frequency 1689 830 859 474 425 464 326 393 464 226 151 352 103
 Which party, if any, would be your second choice? (continued)
All Liberals PCs NDP Greens
Liberals led by Kathleen Wynne 16.9% - 5.9% 34.8% 21%
PCs led by Doug Ford 19.7% 11.2% - 22.7% 10.6%
NDP led by Andrea Horwath 29.4% 45.3% 29.5% - 33.5%
Greens led by Mike Schreiner 10.5% 7.9% 7% 21.6% -
Another Party 2.5% 1% 3.3% 1.3% 3.4%
No Second Choice 21% 34.6% 54.2% 19.6% 31.4%
Unweighted Frequency 1689 453 850 299 60
Weighted Frequency 1689 473 798 325 66

How likely are you to change your vote from your first choice to your second choice?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Toronto GTA East South Central Southwestern North
Very likely 9.2% 8.7% 9.6% 10.8% 7.3% 10.1% 7.8% 9.9% 13.0% 9.1% 9.7% 4.8% 3.3%
Somewhat likely 19.3% 18.9% 19.8% 24.6% 18.4% 16.9% 16.3% 22.8% 18.0% 15.5% 19.1% 19.8% 19.4%
Somewhat unlikely 23.2% 21.7% 24.7% 21.4% 26.1% 21.1% 25.1% 19.9% 20.3% 28.5% 20.1% 29.2% 21.7%
Very unlikely 37.5% 41.2% 34.0% 34.7% 37% 40.3% 38.2% 34.3% 38% 37.8% 39.5% 36.9% 46.1%
Not Sure 10.8% 9.5% 12.0% 8.4% 11.2% 11.5% 12.6% 13.1% 10.7% 9.1% 11.6% 9.4% 9.6%
Unweighted Frequency 1306 676 630 240 327 369 370 284 346 193 115 287 81
Weighted Frequency 1306 642 664 367 329 359 252 304 359 174 116 273 80

All Liberals PCs NDP Greens

Very likely 9.2% 11.4% 8.3% 6.9% 15.5%
Somewhat likely 19.3% 19.8% 13.3% 28.1% 28%
Somewhat unlikely 23.2% 22.8% 21.4% 28.6% 15.6%
Very unlikely 37.5% 33.1% 47% 27.7% 25.4%
Not Sure 10.8% 13% 10.1% 8.7% 15.6%
Unweighted Frequency 1306 398 578 259 48
Weighted Frequency 1306 403 554 274 52

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Kathleen Wynne?

18- 35- 50- South
All Male Female 65+ Toronto GTA East Southwestern North
34 49 64 Central
Favourable opinion 23.7% 19.9% 27.4% 25.6% 17.6% 25.8% 26.2% 35.1% 20.8% 26% 25.8% 13.7% 20.1%
Unfavourable opinion 59.3% 63.7% 55.2% 56.5% 64.7% 58.7% 57.3% 43.6% 59.3% 56% 64% 74.7% 67.1%
Not Sure 12.7% 11.6% 13.8% 12.7% 13.8% 11.8% 12.7% 16% 15.9% 11.8% 7.3% 8.9% 8.9%
Not familiar with Kathleen
4.2% 4.8% 3.6% 5.3% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 5.4% 4% 6.1% 2.9% 2.6% 4%
Wynne
Unweighted Frequency 1763 938 825 297 432 507 527 363 473 278 151 387 111
Weighted Frequency 1763 867 896 495 444 484 340 410 485 236 157 368 108

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Doug Ford?

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Toronto GTA East South Central Southwestern North
Favourable opinion 37.1% 46.2% 28.6% 33.1% 38.7% 40.7% 35.9% 31.5% 40.1% 33.9% 44.3% 40.6% 29.5%
Unfavourable opinion 43.6% 37.9% 48.9% 47.8% 43.2% 38.7% 44.7% 51.7% 39.3% 48.5% 40.4% 37.4% 46.6%
Not Sure 15.3% 12.4% 18.1% 13.4% 15.6% 16.5% 16.4% 12.7% 16.7% 13.3% 13.3% 18.4% 16.4%
Not familiar with Doug Ford 4% 3.6% 4.4% 5.8% 2.5% 4.1% 3% 4.1% 3.9% 4.3% 2% 3.5% 7.4%
Unweighted Frequency 1763 938 825 297 432 507 527 363 473 278 151 387 111
Weighted Frequency 1763 867 896 495 444 484 340 410 485 236 157 368 108
 Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Andrea Horwath?
18- 35- 50- South
All Male Female 65+ Toronto GTA East Southwestern North
34 49 64 Central
Favourable opinion 35.9% 34.7% 37% 37.5% 35.2% 34.5% 36.3% 32.6% 36.1% 37.7% 48% 33.4% 33.7%
Unfavourable opinion 21.9% 25.1% 18.8% 17.8% 22.7% 23.6% 24.3% 21.8% 23.4% 15.1% 21.4% 24.8% 20.8%
Not Sure 30.6% 28.8% 32.3% 30.4% 29.8% 30.1% 32.6% 33.5% 29.2% 34.6% 22.5% 31.4% 26.8%
Not familiar with Andrea
11.7% 11.4% 11.9% 14.4% 12.2% 11.8% 6.8% 12.1% 11.3% 12.6% 8.1% 10.5% 18.8%
Horwath
Unweighted Frequency 1763 938 825 297 432 507 527 363 473 278 151 387 111
Weighted Frequency 1763 867 896 495 444 484 340 410 485 236 157 368 108

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Mike Schreiner?

18- 35- 50- South
All Male Female 65+ Toronto GTA East Southwestern North
34 49 64 Central
Favourable opinion 11.7% 12.9% 10.5% 14.3% 13.5% 9.6% 8.1% 12.1% 11.7% 12.7% 13.8% 9.4% 12.5%
Unfavourable opinion 16.8% 19.3% 14.5% 15.1% 16.2% 17.6% 19.1% 16% 17.3% 15.6% 20.9% 17.5% 12.1%
Not Sure 36.6% 36% 37.2% 37.3% 36.6% 36.9% 35% 36.6% 36.3% 37.3% 37.5% 36.9% 34.1%
Not familiar with Mike
34.9% 31.8% 37.9% 33.3% 33.7% 35.8% 37.8% 35.4% 34.8% 34.4% 27.8% 36.2% 41.3%
Schreiner
Unweighted Frequency 1763 938 825 297 432 507 527 363 473 278 151 387 111
Weighted Frequency 1763 867 896 495 444 484 340 410 485 236 157 368 108
Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held today, which Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion
party would you vote for? of Doug Ford?
(first four responses randomized) Favourable
The Ontario Liberal Party led by Kathleen Wynne Unfavourable
The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario led by Not Sure
Doug Ford Not Familiar with Doug Ford
The New Democratic Party of Ontario led by Andrea
Horwath Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion
The Green Party of Ontario led by Mike Schreiner of Andrea Horwath?
Another Party Favourable
Undecided Unfavourable
Not Sure
Which party are you leaning towards? (only asked Not Familiar with Andrea Horwath
to respondents who said they were undecided in
the previous question) Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion
The Ontario Liberal Party led by Kathleen Wynne of Mike Schreiner?
The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario led by Favourable
Doug Ford Unfavourable
The New Democratic Party of Ontario led by Andrea Not Sure
Horwath Not Familiar with Mike Schreiner
The Green Party of Ontario led by Mike Schreiner
Another Party
Undecided What is your gender?
Male
Which party, if any, would be your second choice? Female
(only asked to respondents who indicated a party
preference in the first question) What is your age group?
The Ontario Liberal Party led by Kathleen Wynne Under 18 years of age
The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario led by 18 to 34 years of age
Doug Ford 35 to 49 years of age
The New Democratic Party of Ontario led by Andrea 50 to 64 years of age
Horwath 65 years of age or older
The Green Party of Ontario led by Mike Schreiner
Another Party
No Second Choice

How likely are you to change your vote from your

first choice to your second choice?
Very Likely
Somewhat Likely
Somewhat Unlikely
Very Unlikely
Not Sure

(the order of the following four questions were

randomized)
We will now ask you about your opinions on the
four major party leaders in Ontario.

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion

of Kathleen Wynne?
Favourable
Unfavourable
Not Sure
Not Familiar with Kathleen Wynne
Ridings and Regions
The following shows the provincial electoral districts that pertain to each region in our
breakouts.
Toronto (416) Mississauga East--Cooksville
Beaches--East York Mississauga--Erin Mills
Davenport Mississauga--Lakeshore
Don Valley East Mississauga--Malton
Don Valley North Mississauga--Streetsville
Don Valley West Newmarket--Aurora
Eglinton--Lawrence Oakville
Etobicoke Centre Oakville North--Burlington
Etobicoke North Oshawa
Etobicoke--Lakeshore Pickering--Uxbridge
Humber River--Black Creek Richmond Hill
Parkdale--High Park Simcoe North
Scarborough Centre Thornhill
Scarborough North Vaughan--Woodbridge
Scarborough Southwest Whitby
Scarborough--Agincourt York--Simcoe
Scarborough--Guildwood
Scarborough--Rouge Park Eastern Ontario
Spadina--Fort York Bay of Quinte
Toronto Centre Carleton
Toronto--Danforth Glengarry--Prescott--Russell
Toronto--St. Paul’s Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock
University--Rosedale Hastings--Lennox and Addington
Willowdale Kanata--Carleton
York Centre Kingston and the Islands
York South--Weston Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and
Greater Toronto Area Rideau Lakes
Ajax Nepean
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill Northumberland--Peterborough South
Barrie--Innisfil Orléans
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte Ottawa Centre
Brampton Centre Ottawa South
Brampton East Ottawa West--Nepean
Brampton North Ottawa--Vanier
Brampton South Peterborough--Kawartha
Brampton West Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke
Burlington Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry
Dufferin--Caledon
Durham South Central Ontario
King--Vaughan Brantford--Brant
Markham--Stouffville Flamborough--Glanbrook
Markham--Thornhill Haldimand--Norfolk
Markham--Unionville Hamilton Centre
Milton Hamilton East--Stoney Creek
Mississauga Centre Hamilton Mountain
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas Sarnia--Lambton
Niagara Centre Waterloo
Niagara Falls Wellington--Halton Hills
Niagara West Windsor West
Simcoe--Grey Windsor--Tecumseh
St. Catharines
Northern Ontario
Southwestern Ontario Algoma--Manitoulin
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound Huron--Bruce
Cambridge Kenora--Rainy River
Chatham-Kent--Leamington Kiiwetinoong
Elgin--Middlesex--London Mushkegowuk--James Bay
Essex Nickel Belt
Guelph Nipissing
Kitchener Centre Parry Sound--Muskoka
Kitchener South--Hespeler Sault Ste. Marie
Kitchener--Conestoga Sudbury
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex Thunder Bay--Atikokan
London North Centre Thunder Bay--Superior North
London West Timiskaming--Cochrane
London--Fanshawe Timmins
Oxford
Perth--Wellington
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between April 16th and
April 18th, 2018, among a sample of 1763 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario. The
survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviews on
both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population
of Ontario.

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was not sponsored by a third party.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources and random digit dialing. The survey that dialed
from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the following regions: Toronto (also
known as the 416 region), the Greater Toronto Area (also known as the 905 region), South
Central Ontario, Southwestern Ontario, Eastern Ontario, and Northern Ontario. In the case
of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region of the
province they resided in. In both cases, respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2.33% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 3.16%, Females: +/- 3.41%,
18-34 age group: +/- 5.69%, 35-49 age group: +/- 4.71%, 50-64 age group: +/- 4.35%, 65+
age group: +/- 4.27%, Toronto: +/- 5.14%, Greater Toronto Area: +/- 4.51%, South Central
Ontario: +/- 7.97%, Southwestern Ontario: +/- 4.98%, Eastern Ontario: +/- 5.88%, Northern
Ontario: +/- 9.3%

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls.