Computers and Geotechnics 26 (2000) 247±261

www.elsevier.com/locate/compgeo

Three-dimensional reliability analysis of

earth slopes
G. Auvinet *, J.L. GonzaÂlez
Instituto de IngenierõÂa, UNAM, Ciudad Universitaria, Mexico, D.F.

Abstract
Reliability of cohesive soil slopes is assessed using a three-dimensional (3D) probabilistic
stability analysis algorithm. Spatial variability of soil properties is represented by an aniso-
tropic random ®eld. Parametric studies are performed for a typical earth structure. The
in¯uence of the model parameters, including expected value, variance and correlation distance
of soil shear strength, on the reliability associated to particular failure mechanisms is eval-
uated. The e€ect on reliability of the dimensions and shape of potential slip surfaces for a
given random ®eld is also assessed. It is shown that the mechanisms that contribute most
signi®cantly to global probability of failure of the slope may be quite di€erent from those
identi®ed as critical by standard deterministic evaluations assuming soil homogeneity. Some
practical implications of this fact are discussed. # 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights
reserved.

1. Introduction

Safety of earth slopes is a topic that has been extensively addressed in the geo-
technical literature. However, slope failures a€ecting natural soil masses or geo-
technical structures are still reported world wide at a surprisingly high rate. Part of
this situation can be attributed to inadequate handling of the uncertainties involved
in slope stability analyses. One of the main factors that contribute to uncertainty is
the spatial variability of soil properties. For many soil masses, including earth
structures constructed in successive compacted lifts, this variability can be repre-
sented by a random ®eld model, generally with a highly anisotropic spatial correla-
tion. Assessment of reliability of slopes in soils with this type of spatial variation
must be based on three-dimensional (3D) analyses. As shown herein, available
deterministic 3D analysis algorithms can be easily modi®ed to take into account
spatial variability and to estimate the reliability associated to particular potential

* Corresponding author.

0266-352X/00/$ - see front matter # 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
PII: S0266-352X(99)00041-5
248 G. Auvinet, J.L. GonzaÂlez / Computers and Geotechnics 26 (2000) 247±261

failure surfaces. It is then possible to perform parametric evaluations of the in¯uence

of the stochastic model parameters and of the shape and dimensions of potential slip
surfaces on the associated reliability. This approach gives valuable information
regarding the failure mechanisms that contribute most signi®cantly to global slope
reliability. The results presented in the paper are limited to short term stability of
slopes in cohesive soils.

2. 3D slope stability analyses

Duncan [1,2] has presented a thorough review of the di€erent methods of analysis
that have been developed to assess slope stability. Bidimensional (2D) limit equili-
brium analyses assume that the soil properties can be considered as homogeneous in
the direction perpendicular to the plane of analysis and that plane deformation
conditions prevail. If these hypotheses are acceptable, techniques based on the
method of slices such as the modi®ed Bishop's procedure [3] give results that are
generally satisfactory for engineering purposes. It is recognized however that a 3D
analysis may be required in situations such as the following:
a. In the case of short slopes for which boundary conditions cannot be ignored
such as earth dams built in a narrow valley
b. When soil properties vary signi®cantly along the longitudinal direction of the
slope
c. When the slope is submitted to concentrated loading
d. When the potential failure surface is irregular.
Many techniques have been developed to perform 3D stability analyses [1]. Some
of them only introduce correction for ``end e€ects'' in analyses considering cylind-
rical slip surfaces [4,5]. Others are based on limit equilibrium analyses of sliding
masses divided in wedges or vertical soil columns. For homogeneous soils, the safety
factor given by these methods is larger than those obtained by 2D analysis. This has
led to the common concept that results of 2D analysis are always on the safe side. It
will be shown that this concept is not valid for soil masses that can only be con-
sidered as homogeneous in a statistical sense.
Among the available 3D stability analysis methods, the algorithm proposed by
Hungr [6] was retained for the evaluation presented in this paper taking into
account, among other advantages, its ¯exibility regarding the type of slip surface
that can be considered. In this model, based on a generalization of simpli®ed Bish-
op's method, the potential sliding mass is divided into an orthogonal assembly of
vertical columns. For rotational surfaces, the safety factor, SF, is derived iteratively
from the sum of moments around a common horizontal axis. For cohesive soils:
P
n
Cui ai Ri
MR
SF ˆ ˆ niˆ1 …1†
MM P
Wi xi ‡ Ed
iˆ1
 G. Auvinet, J.L. GonzaÂlez / Computers and Geotechnics 26 (2000) 247±261 249

where MR and MM are, respectively, the moments of resisting and driving forces.
Cui is the cohesion at base of column i, ai is the area of base of column i, Ri is the
moment arm of resisting force, Wi is the total weight of the column and xi is the
distance from the reference axis to the center of the column. E is the resultant of all
horizontal components of applied point loads, if any, with a moment arm d, and n is
the total number of active columns (Fig. 1).
In the case of nonrotational surface, it is possible to derive the factor of safety
from the horizontal forces equilibrium in the direction of the motion (Fig. 1):
P
n
Cui ai cos y
FR iˆ1
SF ˆ ˆ n …2†
FM P
Ni cos z tan y ‡ E
iˆ1

where z and y are de®ned on Fig. 2 and Ni is the total normal force acting on the
column base derived from the vertical force equilibrium [6].

3. Modelling spatial variations of soils

Variability of soil properties within a soil mass can be described by means of

random ®elds. The values taken by a given property V…X† at points X within the soil
mass are then considered as a realization of such a ®eld, de®ned by its ®rst moments:
expected value EfV…X†g ˆ V…X† , variance var‰V…X†Š ˆ V2 …X† , coecient of variation
CV‰V…X†Š ˆ V…X† =V…X† and spatial autocorrelation:

cov‰V…X1 †; V…X2 †Š
V …X1 ; X2 † ˆ …3†
V…X1 † V…X2 †

  
where cov‰V…X1 †; V…X2 †Š ˆ E V…X1 † ÿ V…X1 † V…X2 † ÿ V…X2 † is the auto-
covariance of the ®eld.

Fig. 1. Cross-section of slope and potential slip surface.

250 G. Auvinet, J.L. GonzaÂlez / Computers and Geotechnics 26 (2000) 247±261

Fig. 2. Forces acting on base of a single column [6].

In statistically homogeneous soil masses, the expected value and variance are
constant in the whole domain (eventually after removal of a trend). On the other
hand, the spatial autocorrelation is generally expected to be constant but strongly
anisotropic, re¯ecting the geological formation process or construction procedure of
the soil mass. In the case of earth structures, for example, the spatial autocorrelation
function in the vertical direction presents well de®ned oscillations corresponding to
the lift thickness and decreases rapidly with the vertical distance between points X1
and X2 , while decreasing much more slowly along horizontal directions [5]. In such
cases, it can be reasonably accepted that the autocorrelation is an orthotropic func-
tion of vector distance ! between pairs of points of the medium.
 
V …X1 ; X2 † ˆ V !
 …4†

An important result is that, if the average value VA of property V…X† in a domain A

(segment, surface, volume) is considered:
…
1
VA ˆ V…X†dX …5†
A A

the variance of this average is [7]:

 G. Auvinet, J.L. GonzaÂlez / Computers and Geotechnics 26 (2000) 247±261 251

… …
V2 …X†
var‰VA Š ˆ V …X1 ; X2 †dX1 dX2 …6†
A2 A A

This formula expresses the well known geometrical scale e€ect: the variance of the
average value of a random property in a given domain A decreases as the size of the
domain increases.
Among the autocorrelation functions of the type indicated in Eq. (4) that have
been proposed [4] one of the simplest is the exponential function:
  
r z
V …r; z† ˆ exp ÿ2 ‡ …7†
r z

where parameters r and z are, respectively, the horizontal and vertical correlation
q  
distances and r ˆ …xi ÿ xj †2 ‡ …yi ÿ yj †2 and z ˆ zi ÿ zj  are, respectively, the
horizontal and vertical distances between ÿ two
di€erent points of the soil mass with
respective coordinates …xi ; yi ; zi † and xj ; yj ; zj . Values of r have been shown to be
of the order of several tenths of meters while the vertical in¯uence distance z is of
the order of a few meters [5]. In this paper, a random ®eld of this type is used to
represent variations of the undrained shear strength Cu within the soil mass. The
horizontal correlation distance is assumed to be 10 times larger than the vertical
distance.

4. 3D reliability analysis of slopes

If the mechanical properties of a soil mass are a€ected by uncertainty due to spa-
tial variations, variables MR and MM of Eq. (1) (respectively, FR and FM in the
case of non-rotational mechanisms) must be considered as random variables. The
probability of failure associated to a particular slip surface can then be de®ned as
Pf ˆ P‰SF < 1Š where SF is the factor of safety. Reliability is the complement to
unity of probability of failure. An equivalent formulation can be introduced de®ning
safety margin, SM ˆ MR ÿ MM (respectively, FR ÿ FM). Probability of failure is
then de®ned as Pf ˆ P‰SM < 0Š. Reliability can be expressed in term of reliability
index  de®ned as:

EfSMg
ˆ …8†
SM

where:
q
SM ˆ MR2 ‡ MM 2 ÿ 2cov‰MR; MMŠ …9†
252 G. Auvinet, J.L. GonzaÂlez / Computers and Geotechnics 26 (2000) 247±261

The short term resisting forces along the potential slip surface depend on the
undrained shear strength along this surface. On the other hand, the driving forces
depend on the speci®c weight of the soil. In most cases, uncertainty on speci®c
weight can be neglected and SM ˆ MR . Eq. (8) can then be written:

EfSMg
ˆ …10†
MR

A ®rst order approximation of the expected value of the safety margin can be
evaluated performing a deterministic stability analysis with the expected value of the
shear strength:
 
1
EfSMg  EfMRg 1 ÿ …11†
EfSFg

On the other hand, as shown below, standard deviation MR of the resisting
moment can be de®ned in terms of the parameters of the shear strength random
®eld. For a sliding mass divided in vertical columns as in Hungr's model [6], variance
of the moment of resisting forces can be calculated as:
" #
X
n X
n X
n ÿ

var‰MRŠ ˆ var‰Cu Š …ai Ri †2 ‡2 ai Ri aj Rj Cu Xi ; Xj …12†
iˆ1 iˆ1 jˆi‡1

where n is the number of columns.

In this expression, the variance of average shear strength at the base of each col-
umn is considered to coincide with the point variance of the ®eld (mid-point
method). In the same way, the correlation between the average shear strength at the
base of di€erent columns is considered equal to the correlation between point values
of this property in Xi and Xj , at base of columns i and j. This approximation can be
considered as acceptable when the number of columns considered in the analysis is
large.
In the case of non-rotational slip surfaces, a similar procedure can be used sub-
stituting MR by FR in Eq. (9), and writing:
" #
X
n n X
X n
var‰FRŠ ˆ var‰Cu Š a2i cos2 yi ‡ 2 ai cos yi aj cos yj Cu …Xi ; Xj † …13†
iˆ1 iˆ1 jˆi‡1

These expressions make it possible to estimate the reliability index associated to

3D failure mechanisms. Algorithms allowing making the corresponding computa-
tions have been developed [8,9].
If the shear strength random ®eld can be considered as Gaussian, SM is also
Gaussian and the probability of failure can be expressed as:
 G. Auvinet, J.L. GonzaÂlez / Computers and Geotechnics 26 (2000) 247±261 253

 
0 ÿ EfSMg
P‰SM40Š ˆ  ˆ …ÿ† …14†
SM

where  is the normalized Gaussian probability distribution function.

The above considerations refer to the reliability associated to a particular slip
surface. It must be emphasized that the global failure probability of a slope is the
probability that any of the possible failure mechanisms develop. This probability is
dicult to assess; however, taking into account that a signi®cant correlation gen-
erally exists between soil properties along close critical slip surfaces, the highest
probability of failure found for particular critical surfaces can generally be con-
sidered as a useful lower limit of the global probability of failure.

5. 3D stability analysis of an homogeneous earth dam

In earth dam engineering, ®lls constructed with the same type of soil are com-
monly referred to as ``homogeneous''. Of course this type of homogeneity is only
statistical since natural borrow materials are far from uniform. Deviations with
respect to the speci®ed compaction technique and changes of ambient conditions
during construction introduce additional spatial variations.
An example of this type of structure is the Mirgenbach dam [5]. This is a 22 m
high and 450 m long earth embankment (Fig. 3). A symmetrical failure occurred
during the ®nal stage of construction (Fig. 4). Average properties of compacted soil
and foundation are indicated in Fig. 3. This structure will be used to illustrate the
3D reliability analysis procedure.
Stability and reliability analyses were carried out for three di€erent potential fail-
ure mechanisms: rotation on a curved slip surface approximated by a sphere
(mechanism 1), failure of a wedge along three planar surfaces (mechanism 2) and
failure of a wedge along two planes (mechanism 3) as shown in simpli®ed cross sec-
tions of Fig. 5.
For the circular mechanism, the position of the rotation axis and sphere radius
that led to the lowest safety factor was searched. In the same way, for other failure
mechanisms, the most critical inclination of the slip planar surfaces was determined
by trial and error (Fig. 6).
In Fig. 7, the calculated safety factors are presented for each mechanism as a
function of width of failure zone. It must be mentioned that, following Hungr's

Fig. 3. Transversal cross-section of Mirgenbach dam.

254 G. Auvinet, J.L. GonzaÂlez / Computers and Geotechnics 26 (2000) 247±261

Fig. 4. Sliding zones (plan view).

Fig. 5. Stability analysis (mechanisms 1 to 3).

recommendation [6], safety factors for non-rotational failures (mechanisms 2 and 3)

were corrected to take into account lack of symmetry of the slip surfaces.
According to these deterministic analyses, the lowest safety factor is obtained for
mechanism 1 and the highest for mechanism 3. In all cases, the safety factor
 G. Auvinet, J.L. GonzaÂlez / Computers and Geotechnics 26 (2000) 247±261 255

Fig. 6. Critical slip surfaces for mechanisms 1 and 3.

Fig. 7. Variation of computed safety factor with width of failure zone.

decreases when the failure zone width increases and asymptotically tends to a con-
stant value corresponding to 2D failure. Those can be considered as typical results
for deterministic 3D slope stability analyses. In the present case, however, this type
of result does not agree with the ®eld observations since it was determined that
failure occurred by translation along a practically horizontal plane.

6. Parametric reliability analyses

The stability of the above earth dam can be reviewed from a probabilistic point of
view assuming that the shear strength of the clay is adequately described by an ani-
sotropic random ®eld. The parameters of this ®eld and the dimensions and shape of
256 G. Auvinet, J.L. GonzaÂlez / Computers and Geotechnics 26 (2000) 247±261

the slip surface can be modi®ed to evaluate their impact on the results of reliability
analyses.

6.1. In¯uence of parameters of shear strength random ®eld on computed reliability

Eq. (8) indicates that reliability index increases linearly with the expected value of
shear strength introduced in the analysis.
The results of the evaluation of the e€ect of the correlation distance and coecient
of variation on reliability index are illustrated in Figs. 8 and 9, respectively for
mechanisms 1 and 3. Reliability index  decreases rapidly with the coecient of
variation of shear strength for all mechanisms. High values of the coecient of
variation value increase the variance of the resisting forces and of the safety margin
and, consequently, the probability of failure. Reliability index also decreases when
horizontal correlation distance increases since the variance of the average value of
shear strength on the slip surface is larger [Eq. (6)].

6.2. In¯uence of width of potential failure zone on computed reliability

The results of deterministic 3D stability analyses indicate that safety associated to

a particular slip surface decreases when the width of the potential sliding mass
increases. When shear strength random variability is taken into account, this con-
clusion is no longer valid. As shown in Fig. 10, the reliability index decreases with
the width of the failure zone. This can be explained in terms of the reduction of
variance of average shear strength, and of the moment of resisting forces as the size
of the potential slip surface considered increases. The corresponding decrease of
coecient of variation of the safety margin is presented on Fig. 11.

Fig. 8. Variation of reliability index with horizontal correlation distance for di€erent coecients of var-
iation of shear strength (mechanism 1).
 G. Auvinet, J.L. GonzaÂlez / Computers and Geotechnics 26 (2000) 247±261 257

The geometry of short potential failure zones is mechanically more favorable for
stability and, in fact, reliability does increase for very narrow slip surfaces, but short
zones are more sensitive to local variations of shear strength.

6.3. In¯uence of the shape of the slip surface on computed reliability

Fig. 12 shows variation of reliability with the correlation distance for the three
mechanisms considered in Fig. 4, for a 180 m wide failure zone. The trend is similar

Fig. 9. Variation of reliability index with correlation distance for di€erent coecients of variation of
shear strength (mechanism 3).

Fig. 10. Variation of reliability index with horizontal correlation distance for di€erent widths of failure
zone (mechanism 1).
258 G. Auvinet, J.L. GonzaÂlez / Computers and Geotechnics 26 (2000) 247±261

Fig. 11. Variation of CVSM for di€erent widths of failure zone (mechanism 1).

Fig. 12. Variation of reliability index for three failure mechanisms (width=180 m).

for other widths of the failure zone. It is clear that a lower reliability is obtained for
failure mechanisms along planar surfaces. This result con®rms the results obtained
previously with a simpler model [5].
In the horizontal plane of mechanism 3, variance of average shear strength
remains high due to the long horizontal correlation distance [Eq. (6)], while on
curved and tilted plane surfaces an averaging e€ect due to crossing of soils with
di€erent characteristics and low correlation reduces the variance drastically. This
shows that for earth structures commonly considered as homogeneous, the existence
of an anisotropic spatial correlation may induce failure mechanisms that are quite
di€erent from those detected in deterministic analysis. These results are also in a
 G. Auvinet, J.L. GonzaÂlez / Computers and Geotechnics 26 (2000) 247±261 259

better agreement with observations on Mirgenbach dam. Failure of this structure

could be associated to de®ciencies in the control of water content during construc-
tion (high coecient of variation of Cu ), that led to the presence of a saturated
horizontal layer within the soil mass (long correlation distance).
In Fig. 13, the simultaneous e€ect of width and shape of the slip surface on relia-
bility is presented for mechanisms 1 and 3. In this ®gure, it can be observed that the
lowest reliability index is obtained for mechanism 3 and a width of about 40 m.

Fig. 13. Variation of reliability index with horizontal correlation distance for mechanisms 1 and 3 and
three failure widths.

Fig. 14. Reliability index vs. expected safety factor (mechanism 1).
260 G. Auvinet, J.L. GonzaÂlez / Computers and Geotechnics 26 (2000) 247±261

Fig. 15. Probability of failure vs. expected safety factor (mechanism 1).

7. Safety factor and reliability

A general relation between safety factor and reliability index cannot be estab-
lished. However, for a speci®c problem and accepting that MM is deterministic, the
following relation can be used to extend the results of parametric studies:

MM…EfSFg ÿ 1†
ˆ …15†
SM

This is illustrated by Fig. 14 that was established for a horizontal correlation dis-
tance of 20 m.
If it is accepted that the safety factor is approximately normally distributed, it is
also possible to draw graphs relating safety factor and probability of failure as
shown on Fig. 15. This type of graph can be useful to assess the in¯uence of shear
strength variance, associated to di€erent levels of quality control and construction
material homogeneity, on the safety of the slope.

8. Conclusions

Reliability of cohesive soil slopes was assessed using a three-dimensional prob-

abilistic stability analysis algorithm. Spatial variability of soil properties was repre-
sented by an anisotropic random ®eld …r =z ˆ 10†. Parametric studies were
performed for a typical earth structure. It could be concluded that:

a. Deterministic 3D analysis algorithms can be easily modi®ed to take into

account spatial variability and to estimate the reliability associated to parti-
cular potential failure surfaces.
 G. Auvinet, J.L. GonzaÂlez / Computers and Geotechnics 26 (2000) 247±261 261

b. For materials that are homogeneous only in a statistical sense, i.e. for most
natural and compacted materials, the commonly accepted concept that 2D
stability analyses give results that are on the safe side with respect to those
given by three-dimensional analyses is not valid.
c. Relatively short 3D soil masses may present a higher probability of failure than
longer masses due to the higher variance of the average shear strength along
small slip surfaces.
d. When spatial correlation is anisotropic, the probability of failure associated to
non-rotational mechanisms including planar surfaces may present a higher
probability of failure than conventional curved slip surfaces.

The results presented suggest that control of construction of the so-called

``homogeneous'' earth structures should focus not only on the average strength of
the materials but also on the magnitude and spatial distribution of their variations.

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