POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL MAY 8th 2018, 6 AM EST

Toronto
“Who do you think won the debate?”
Post-Provincial Leaders’ Debate Poll

8th May 2018

METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results
of a survey conducted on May 7th at the
conclusion of the first provincial leaders’
debate among a sample of 2000 adults, 18 years
of age or older, living in Toronto. The survey
was conducted using automated telephone
interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were
interviews on landlines and cellular phones.
The sampling frame was derived from both
a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources.
The survey was conducted as a stratified dial
of the following regions; Downtown Toronto,
North York, Scarborough, and Etobicoke. In
the case of random digit dials, respondents
were asked the additional question of what
region of the province they resided in.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet
Research and was not sponsored by a third
party.
The margin of error for this survey is +/- 2.19%
and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all
three levels of government, President and CEO
Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
international public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
was the only polling firm to correctly predict a
Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal
election. Mainstreet also accurately predicted
the Miami & New York City Mayoral elections.
and the Alabama special election in 2017.
Mainstreet Research is a member of the World
Association for Public Opinion Research and
meets international and Canadian publication
standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
FORD WINS THE DEBATE, ACCORDING TO TORONTONIANS

8 MAY 2018 (TORONTO, ON) – Torontonians think that Progressive Conservative leader
Doug Ford won last night’s debate, according to the latest Mainstreet Research poll.

The poll was conducted immediately after the conclusion of CityTV’s broadcast of the first provincial
leaders’ debate. The poll surveyed 2000 Torontonians and has a margin of error of +/- 2.19% and is
accurately 19 times out of 20.

35.1% of those who said they watched the debate thought that Ford won the debate. 24.3% thought
that Andrea Horwath won, while 19.3% said that Premier Kathleen Wynne was the winner of the
debate. 9.5% said that none of the leaders won and that the debate was a draw. 11.8% said that they
were not sure.

“Doug Ford walked into last night’s debate as the front-runner and clearly Torontonians think that
his debate performance matched his support in this polls,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of
Mainstreet Research.

“Debate viewers’ perceptions of Andrea Horwath’s performance is more positive than their thoughts
on Wynne’s performance,” continued Maggi. “This is bad news for Wynne, as an important subtext
in this election is the battle between Wynne and Horwath for the progressive voter in Ontario”,
continued Maggi.

When asked which party they would vote for if the election were held today, 36.6% of decided
and leaning voters said they would vote for the PCs, while 31.1% said that they would support the
Liberals. The NDP currently garner 23.1%

But Maggi said that these topline numbers do not tell the whole story.

“The NDP are ahead of the Liberals in the downtown core while the Liberals trail the PCs badly in the
suburbs,” Maggi said. “This points to a potential situation where the Liberals end up with a handful
of seats in Toronto despite having a strong showing in the popular vote.”

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Dr. Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
If a provincial election were held today, which
All Voters
party would you vote for?

14.1%

26.7%
2.9%

5.3%

All Voters

19.3%

Decided and Leaning Voters31.6%

3.4%
Liberals Progressive Conservatives NDP Greens
5.9%
Another Party Undecided

31.1%

23.1%

Decided and Leaning Voters

36.6%

Liberals Progressive Conservatives NDP Greens

Did you watch tonight’s leaders
debate?

31.1%
36.6%
23.1%
All

5.9%
3.4%

32.9%
21.6%
Downtown

34.4%
7.4%
3.6%

29.1%
48.1%
Etobicoke

14.1%
4.9%
3.8%

31.1%
43.2%
North York

17.4%
5%
3.2%

29.6%
Scarborough

42.2%
19.8%
5.5%
2.9%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Liberals PCs NDP Green Another Party

Which party leader do you think won the
debate tonight?

11.8%
11.8% 19.3%
19.3%

9.5%
9.5%

24.3%
24.3%
35.1%
35.1%

Kathleen Wynne Doug Ford Andrea Horwath Draw

Kathleen Wynne Doug Ford Andrea Horwath Draw
Not Sure
Not Sure
Breakouts
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Downtown Etobicoke North York Scarborough
Liberals led by Kathleen Wynne 26.7% 23.3% 29.8% 31.1% 20.9% 26.1% 27.9% 29.2% 26.2% 25.5% 25.1%
PCs led by Doug Ford 31.6% 35.1% 28.5% 20.7% 39% 35.4% 35.4% 18.8% 44.5% 36.4% 36.1%
NDP led by Andrea Horwath 19.3% 20.9% 17.8% 22.6% 16.9% 18.8% 17.3% 29.5% 12.2% 13.7% 16.2%
Greens led by Mike Schreiner 5.3% 6% 4.7% 9% 4.4% 3.3% 2.9% 6.8% 4.5% 4.4% 4.9%
Another Party 2.9% 3.1% 2.8% 4.4% 4.4% 1% 1% 3.3% 3.3% 2.6% 2.7%
Undecided 14.1% 11.6% 16.5% 12.2% 14.4% 15.4% 15.5% 12.6% 9.4% 17.4% 15.0%
Unweighted Frequency 2000 844 1156 171 274 617 938 541 339 517 603
Weighted Frequency 2000 948 1052 633 507 480 380 657 273 612 458

(leaning voters with true undecided voters)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Downtown Etobicoke North York Scarborough
Liberals led by Kathleen Wynne 28.5% 24.7% 31.8% 31.8% 23.9% 28.2% 29.3% 30.8% 27.7% 27.6% 26.7%
PCs led by Doug Ford 33.6% 36.9% 30.7% 21.1% 41.5% 37.5% 39% 20.4% 46.4% 38.8% 38.2%
NDP led by Andrea Horwath 21.3% 22.8% 19.9% 24.4% 19.2% 21.5% 18.8% 32.2% 13.6% 15.5% 17.9%
Greens led by Mike Schreiner 5.4% 6.1% 4.8% 9% 4.4% 3.5% 3.2% 6.9% 4.6% 4.5% 4.9%
Another Party 3.1% 3.3% 2.9% 4.4% 4.4% 1.3% 1.4% 3.3% 3.7% 2.9% 2.7%
Undecided 8.1% 6.2% 9.8% 9.3% 6.6% 8% 8.3% 6.3% 4% 10.7% 9.6%
Unweighted Frequency 2000 844 1156 171 274 617 938 541 339 517 603
Weighted Frequency 2000 948 1052 633 507 480 380 657 273 612 458

(decided and leaning voters)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Downtown Etobicoke North York Scarborough
Liberals led by Kathleen Wynne 31.1% 26.4% 35.3% 35% 25.8% 30.7% 32% 32.9% 29.1% 31.1% 29.6%
PCs led by Doug Ford 36.6% 39.3% 34% 23.3% 44.4% 40.9% 42.7% 21.6% 48.1% 43.2% 42.2%
NDP led by Andrea Horwath 23.1% 24.3% 22.1% 26.9% 20.4% 23.2% 20.3% 34.4% 14.1% 17.4% 19.8%
Greens led by Mike Schreiner 5.9% 6.5% 5.3% 9.9% 4.7% 3.8% 3.5% 7.4% 4.9% 5% 5.5%
Another Party 3.4% 3.5% 3.2% 4.8% 4.7% 1.4% 1.5% 3.6% 3.8% 3.2% 2.9%
Unweighted Frequency 1840 794 1046 156 254 569 861 508 323 462 547
Weighted Frequency 1840 872 968 582 467 442 350 605 251 563 421

(debate viewers)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Downtown Etobicoke North York Scarborough
Liberals led by Kathleen Wynne 31.5% 28.3% 34.3% 44.7% 18% 30.1% 29.3% 37.9% 24% 29.6% 29.2%
PCs led by Doug Ford 40.9% 40.2% 41.5% 17.8% 57.7% 48.7% 47.1% 22.5% 56.4% 50.8% 44.7%
NDP led by Andrea Horwath 18.2% 21.5% 15.2% 21.3% 10.8% 20.2% 20.4% 27.2% 12.5% 11% 18.4%
Greens led by Mike Schreiner 5.5% 6.4% 4.7% 10.6% 6.3% 0.3% 2.6% 9% 3.3% 4.1% 3.5%
Another Party 3.9% 3.6% 4.2% 5.6% 7.2% 0.8% 0.6% 3.4% 3.8% 4.5% 4.1%
Unweighted Frequency 766 366 400 92 99 245 330 187 162 183 234
Weighted Frequency 766 363 403 242 194 184 146 252 105 234 175
 Did you watch tonight’s leaders debate?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Downtown North York Scarborough Etobicoke
Yes 41.5% 44.7% 38.7% 49.3% 36.5% 41% 36% 37.4% 38.3% 43.7% 55.1%
No 58.5% 55.3% 61.3% 50.7% 63.5% 59% 64% 62.6% 61.7% 56.3% 44.9%
Unweighted Frequency 2000 844 1156 171 274 617 938 541 517 603 339
Weighted Frequency 2000 948 1052 633 507 480 380 657 612 458 273

Which party leader do you think won the debate tonight?

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Downtown Etobicoke North York Scarborough
Kathleen Wynne 19.3% 17.1% 21.3% 23.8% 18.4% 18.6% 13.9% 23.9% 15.8% 14.7% 21.1%
Doug Ford 35.1% 37.9% 32.5% 22.5% 48.7% 39.3% 32.5% 23.5% 43.6% 38.8% 41.5%
Andrea Horwath 24.3% 21.5% 26.8% 20.9% 18.2% 27.5% 34.1% 31.3% 25.7% 19.8% 19.5%
Draw 9.5% 11.1% 8% 14.6% 8.5% 5.7% 6.9% 6.9% 3.5% 18.9% 4%
Not Sure 11.8% 12.3% 11.4% 18.2% 6.1% 8.9% 12.6% 14.3% 11.5% 7.8% 13.8%
Unweighted Frequency 800 378 422 98 102 257 343 191 169 196 244
Weighted Frequency 800 379 421 253 203 192 152 263 109 245 183
Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held The Green Party of Ontario led by
today, which party would you vote Mike Schreiner
for? Another Party
(first four responses randomized) No Second Choice
The Ontario Liberal Party led by
Kathleen Wynne Did you watch tonight’s leaders
The Progressive Conservative Party debate?
of Ontario led by Doug Ford Yes
The New Democratic Party of Ontario No
led by Andrea Horwath
The Green Party of Ontario led by Which party leader do you think won
Mike Schreiner the debate tonight?
Another Party (order of first three responses
Undecided randomized)
Kathleen Wynne
Which party are you leaning Doug Ford
towards? (only asked to respondents Andrea Horwath
who said they were undecided in the None of the won, it was a draw
previous question) Not Sure
The Ontario Liberal Party led by
Kathleen Wynne What is your gender?
The Progressive Conservative Party Male
of Ontario led by Doug Ford Female
The New Democratic Party of Ontario
led by Andrea Horwath What is your age group?
The Green Party of Ontario led by Under 18 years of age
Mike Schreiner 18 to 34 years of age
Another Party 35 to 49 years of age
Undecided 50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
Which party, if any, would be your
second choice?
(only asked to respondents who
indicated a party preference in the
first question)
The Ontario Liberal Party led by
Kathleen Wynne
The Progressive Conservative Party
of Ontario led by Doug Ford
The New Democratic Party of Ontario
led by Andrea Horwath
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on May 7th at the
conclusion of the first provincial leaders’ debate among a sample of 2000 adults, 18 years
of age or older, living in Toronto. The survey was conducted using automated telephone
interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were interviews on landlines and cellular phones. The
survey is intended to represent the voting population of Toronto.

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was not sponsored by a third party.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources. The survey was conducted as a stratified dial of
the following regions: Downtown Toronto (collloquially known as the old City of Toronto),
Etobicoke, North York, and Scarborough. Respondents were dialed at random.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2.19% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 3.37%, Females: +/-
2.88%, 18-34 age group: +/- 7.49%, 35-49 age group: +/- 5.92%, 50-64 age group: +/- 3.94%,
65+ age group: +/- 3.2%, Downtown Toronto: +/- 4.21%, Etobicoke: +/- 5.32%, North York:
+/- 4.31%, Scarborough: +/- 3.99%.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls.