TO: Interested parties

FROM: Amy Levin, Benenson Strategy Group

RE: Josh Harder CA-10 Poll Results
DATE: May 8, 2018

➢ Our latest poll on the Congressional primary in CA-10 shows Josh Harder is in second place behind
Representative Denham, and clearly has the momentum in this race. The horserace currently stands
at:
✓ Jeff Denham, Businessman/Farmer/Representative, Republican: 42%
✓ Josh Harder, Educator/Businessman, Democrat: 13%
✓ Michael Eggman, Farmer/Businessman, Democrat: 10%
✓ Virginia Madueño, Valley Water Commissioner, Democrat: 6%
✓ Sue Zwahlen, Registered Nurse, Democrat: 6%
✓ Ted D. Howze, Veterinarian, Republican: 4%

➢ Harder has made significant gains over the past few months – picking up 10 points in vote – while
Eggman has tumbled 9 points and has now lost nearly half of the voters he had back in February.

Feb 2018 May 2018 Change since Feb

Jeff Denham 42 42 0
Josh Harder 3 13 +10
Michael Eggman 19 10 -9
Virginia Madueño 4 6 +2
Sue Zwahlen 6 6 0
Dotty Nygard (dropped out) 4 0 -4
Ted D. Howze n/a 4 n/a
Michael J. Barkley 1 1 0

➢ Among Democrats, Harder's current lead is even bigger, with 26% voting Harder, 18% Eggman, and
10% Madueño in the initial horserace.

➢ Harder’s story and message are clearly resonating in the district. He has a much healthier favorability
than Eggman, who is barely above water, and Madueño, who also has a surprisingly high negative
rating for her total name-ID.
✓ Harder: net favorable +17
▪ 28% favorable (up 21 points since February), 11% unfavorable (up just 7 points)
✓ Eggman: net favorable +3
▪ 31% favorable (down 5 points since February), 28% unfavorable (up 9 points)
✓ Madueño: net favorable +6
▪ 20% favorable, 14% unfavorable

➢ BSG has also conducted previous polling with the general election universe that also showed Harder
pulling within one point of Denham (46 Harder -47 Denham) when voters have heard negatives on
both candidates and positives on Harder.

NEW YORK | LOS ANGELES | DENVER | PHILADELPHIA | BSGCO.COM

Methodology
Benenson Strategy Group conducted 550 interviews with likely 2018 primary election voters in
California’s 10th Congressional District from May 2-6, 2018. The margin of error is ± 4.2% dataset as a
whole at the 95% confidence level. From February 12-15, 2018, BSG conducted 401 interviews with likely
2018 primary election voters and 577 interviews with likely 2018 general election voters in California’s 10 th
Congressional District. The margin of error is ± 4.9% for the primary election dataset and ± 4.1% for the
general election dataset as a whole at the 95% confidence level.