Peter Brown, Assistant

Director,
Quinnipiac University Polling
Institute
(203) 582-5201

Rubenstein Associates, Inc.

Public Relations
FOR RELEASE: SEPTEMBER 21, 2010

CORBETT HAS BIG LEAD IN PENNSYLVANIA GOVERNOR’S RACE,

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS;
INDEPENDENT VOTERS BACK REPUBLICAN 2-1
Republican Attorney General Tom Corbett holds a 54 – 39 percent lead over Democrat Dan
Onorato, the Allegheny County Executive, in the race to become Pennsylvania’s next governor,
fueled by a 56 – 29 percent margin among independent voters, according to a Quinnipiac
University poll of likely voters released today.
Corbett also leads Onorato when it comes to rebuilding the state’s economy, handling its
budget problems and sharing voters’ values, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack)
University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds. This is the first general election survey
of likely voters in Pennsylvania in this election cycle and cannot be compared to earlier surveys
of registered voters.
Only 7 percent of voters say they are undecided while 16 percent of Corbett backers and
22 percent of Onorato supporters say they might change their mind before Election Day, making
Corbett’s competitive position slightly stronger.
Corbett leads Onorato 88 – 9 percent among Republicans and trails 84 – 10 percent among
Democrats. There is a yawning gender gap, with Corbett winning men 65 – 29 percent and
Onorato ahead among women 52 – 39 percent.
“Attorney General Tom Corbett is in strong position to be Pennsylvania’s next governor.
Not only is his lead substantial, but his supporters are slightly less likely to say they might change
their minds than are Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato’s,” said Peter Brown, assistant
director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “Only 7 percent of voters are undecided.
So Onorato must win all of those voters and convert Corbett supporters as well.”
-more-
Quinnipiac University Poll/September 21, 2010 – page 2
“An Onorato victory probably would require a sea change among independent voters who
are now strongly in Corbett’s camp and often are the group that decides elections,” Brown added.
Corbett’s lead in the horse race is matched by the difference in voter opinions of the two
candidates. Onorato’s favorable/unfavorable ratio with likely voters is 40 – 24 percent with 33
percent saying they haven’t heard enough about him to form an opinion. Corbett gets a 51 – 21
percent favorability while 27 percent haven’t formed an opinion. Among the key voting bloc,
independents, Corbett has a 50 – 17 percent favorability rating, while Onorato has a 33 – 29
percent score.
“Gov. Ed Rendell isn’t exactly helping Onorato’s cause. Likely voters disapprove 57 – 35
percent of the job Rendell is doing. In an election year that is showing strong signs of having an
anti-incumbent, anti-Democratic tide, Onorato’s party tie to the unpopular incumbent may be a
problem,” said Brown.
Corbett leads Onorato on issue and character questions:
• 48 – 38 percent that he would do a better job rebuilding the state’s economy;
• 48 – 38 percent that he would better handle the state budget;
• 49 – 38 percent that the Republican most shares their values.
Only 2 percent of likely voters say they are “very satisfied” with the way things are going
in Pennsylvania today, while 34 percent are “somewhat satisfied.” A total of 64 percent are
“somewhat dissatisfied” or “very dissatisfied.”
“This election is playing out across a pessimistic electorate. When voters are unhappy
with the status quo they look for change and since the two best known Democrats – President
Barack Obama and Gov. Ed Rendell – are not on the ballot this year, they are taking their
frustrations out on any other Democratic target, and that is Dan Onorato,” said Brown.
From September 15 – 19, Quinnipiac University surveyed 684 Pennsylvania likely
voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public
opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the
nation as a public service and for research.
For more data or RSS feed– http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or
follow us on Twitter.

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1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were
Dan Onorato the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If
undecided q1) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Onorato or Corbett? This
table includes "Leaners".

LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Onorato 39 9 84 29 29 52
Corbett 54 88 10 56 65 39
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - -
DK/NA 7 2 5 13 5 9

1a. (If candidate choice q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your
mind before the election?

LIKELY VOTERS.........
CAND CHOICE Q1
Tot DO TC

Made up 79% 77% 81%

Might change 19 22 16
DK/NA 2 1 3

2. (If Onorato voter q1) Is your vote for Governor mainly for Onorato or against Corbett?
(*Subgroup not large enough to report)

LIKELY ONORATO VOTERS.................

Tot *Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

For Onorato 67 72 59 61 72
Against Corbett 26 25 28 34 21
DK/NA 6 3 13 5 7

3. (If Corbett voter q1) Is your vote for Governor mainly for Corbett or against Onorato?
(*Subgroup not large enough to report)

LIKELY CORBETT VOTERS.................

Tot Rep *Dem Ind Men Wom

For Corbett 73 78 67 74 69
Against Onorato 17 16 20 16 18
DK/NA 11 6 13 10 13

4. Is your opinion of - Dan Onorato favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?

LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 40 19 76 33 34 49
Unfavorable 24 38 5 29 30 16
Hvn't hrd enough 33 40 18 35 34 32
REFUSED 3 2 1 3 2 3
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5. Is your opinion of - Tom Corbett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?

LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 51 80 19 50 59 39
Unfavorable 21 4 45 17 18 24
Hvn't hrd enough 27 15 35 31 22 35
REFUSED 2 1 1 3 1 2

16. Which one of these four qualities matter most in deciding how you vote for Governor;
the candidate is honest and trustworthy, has the right experience, can bring about needed
change to Harrisburg or shares your values?

LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Honest and
trustworthy 22 19 27 23 20 24
Right experience 9 10 14 4 7 13
Can bring change 35 36 32 39 37 33
Shares values 30 34 26 28 33 27
DK/NA 3 2 1 6 3 3

CAND CHOICE Q1
DO TC

Honest and
trustworthy 20% 22%
Right experience 15 6
Can bring change 34 37
Shares values 29 31
DK/NA 1 3

17. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job
rebuilding Pennsylvania's economy, Dan Onorato or Tom Corbett?

LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Onorato 38 9 77 31 31 46
Corbett 48 78 12 49 57 36
NO DIFFERENCE(VOL) 2 1 - 3 1 2
DK/NA 13 12 10 17 11 16

18. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job handling
Pennsylvania's state budget, Dan Onorato or Tom Corbett?

LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Onorato 38 9 77 31 31 47
Corbett 48 78 12 52 57 35
NO DIFFERENCE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1
DK/NA 13 12 10 16 11 17

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19. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you trust more to do in office what
they say they will do during the campaign, Dan Onorato or Tom Corbett?

LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Onorato 35 10 72 24 29 42
Corbett 46 73 15 48 55 35
NO DIFFERENCE(VOL) 6 7 3 9 5 7
DK/NA 13 10 10 20 10 17

20. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you believe most shares your values, Dan
Onorato or Tom Corbett?

LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Onorato 38 6 80 33 29 49
Corbett 49 83 10 51 58 38
NO DIFFERENCE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1
DK/NA 12 10 9 15 12 13

21. Which type of candidate would you prefer to see as governor, someone with years
of government experience or a government outsider?

LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Experience 45 40 67 31 38 54
Outsider 43 49 22 52 50 33
DK/NA 13 11 11 18 13 13

CAND CHOICE Q1
DO TC

Experience 67% 31%

Outsider 20 58
DK/NA 13 11

22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as
Governor?

LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Approve 35 12 63 36 31 40
Disapprove 57 82 27 54 64 48
DK/NA 8 5 10 10 5 12

24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tom Corbett is handling his job as State
Attorney General?

LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Approve 63 83 45 60 68 56
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Disapprove 16 8 27 12 16 17
DK/NA 21 9 28 28 17 27

25. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania
today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very
dissatisfied?

LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Very satisfied 2 1 2 2 1 2
Smwht satisfied 34 18 60 27 30 39
Smwht dissatisfied 39 42 28 43 39 38
Very dissatisfied 25 38 9 27 29 19
DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1

26. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling the economy?

LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Approve 33 13 60 31 30 37
Disapprove 62 83 34 63 68 54
DK/NA 6 5 6 6 3 10