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Base. Global installed base is ex- Total Installations (46,455 units) The 2009 worldwide installed base of over
pected to grow from around 46,500 46,000 units is dominated by light frame (under 10,000 kW) gas turbine plants
for powergen Other
operation.
units (1300GW) to about 57,000 units Marine
7%
1%
Aeroderivative
(1990GW) in 2018. Other
Marine 1% Powergen 21% Light Frame
7% 62% Aeroderivative 46%
Mech Drive Powergen 21% Light Frame
Spend. Scheduled maintenance ex- 30% 62% 46%
Mech Drive
penditures are expected to rise from 30% By By
$18.3 billion for 2009 to a little over Industry Type
By By
$25 billion in 2018. Industry Type
India
Baseline measures
Hitachi Other China
1% 8% Africa 5%
2% AeroStrategy’s reference data for
MAPNA
2% General
5%
North 2009 paints a landscape shaped
E Europe/Russia America
Pratt & Whitney
3%
Electric
42%
6% 33% through 60 years of dominance by
Solar Turbines
3% Latin America Western markets, power generation
7%
Rolls Royce
By By applications and established OEMs.
4%
Mitsubishi OEM Region • Installed base. As of 2009, Aero-
6% Middle East
13% Strategy identified an existing global
Alstom industrial gas turbine fleet of approxi-
14%
Asia Pacific
Western
Europe
mately 46,000 units, of which pow-
Siemens 14%
17% 15% er units represent 62%, mechanical
drives 30% and marine engines 7%.
Source: AeroStrategy
• Installed capacity. Powergen units
multi-pronged six-month market as- The results are presented in a re- account for nearly 90% of the total in-
sessment between May and Novem- port titled Industrial Gas Turbine stalled fleet capacity of 1340GW.
ber 2009, with the aim of charting a Global Maintenance Market, which • Gas turbine type. 46% are light
ten-year look-ahead for industrial gas incorporates interview/survey re- frame units, followed by heavy frame
turbine maintenance Marine
trends across all sponses, maintenance interval and designs with 33% and aeroderivative
Light Frame
three major application markets: pow-
1% cost assumptions, 11% and annual projec- gas turbines at 21%.
ergen,
Mechmechanical
Drive drives and marine tions for the years 2010-2018. The • GT Population. More than half of
21% Powergen
propulsion. 78%
report is available for purchase from
Aeroderivative the current installed base comprises
The study included survey respons- AeroStrategy
17% (www.aerostrategy.com) Solar, GE Energy and Rolls-Royce
es and interviews ofByoperators, OEMs, and includes a comprehensive data- gas turbines.
By
maintenance suppliers Industry and distribu- base of maintenanceType costs by specific • Distribution. North America has the
tors (both US and international). In engine model. largest and oldest fleet, with 30% of
Hitachi Other China India
addition, AeroStrategy 1% 8%undertook a Gas Turbine
Africa 5% World reviews some
2%
all installed units and 35% of total
MAPNA 5%
Heavy Frame
broad secondary
2% research effort Generalto of the key findings below. North
E Europe/Russia global capacity. Western Europe, the
Electric 72% America
quantify projected
Pratt & Whitney
3% new equipment 42%de- 6% 33% Asia Pacific region (APAC) and Mid-
liveries,
3%
retirement levels for installed
Solar Turbines General
Latin Americaparameters dle East reflect a combined 42%.of all
7%
gasRollsturbines,
4%
Royce long-termBy utilization While market reviews By are often either units and 43% of installed capacity.
patterns,
Mitsubishi routine maintenance
OEM prac- too broadly inclusive or too narrowly-
Region
• Market size. Maintenance expenses
6% Middle East
tices, and average maintenance inter- focused
13% to provide useful perspective, in 2009 totaled $18.3 billion. Nearly
vals and Alstomcosts by GT type/operational
14%
Global Maintenance Market strikes a 80% of that was spent by power gen-
Western
profile. Siemens
balancedAsiadepth-of-field
Pacific between
Europe
top- erators, with 72% of the total going
14%
17% 15%
India
Other China 2%
Hitachi 10% Africa 3%
Zorya General
2% November - December 6% North
GAS TURBINE WORLD: 2009
Mashproekt Electric E Europe/Russia America
2% 39% 7% 30%
Pratt & Whitney
3%
17% 15%
and expected unit retirements – reveal over the study period, growth in de- roughly 1170GW of generating capac-
15.0
Spending
shifting patterns of industry demand veloping regions will dramatically ity. AeroStrategy foresees no let-up
15.0
and regional economic activity that outpace mature industrialized mar- in the trend, and projects the installed
will subtly but steadily alter estab- kets like10.0
North America and Western base will exceed 37,000 units by
lished market outlines. Europe.10.0
And while power generation 2018, delivering a collective capacity
• Total GT maintenance spending units will continue to capture the li- of nearly 1800GW. Highlights:
on’s share5.0of service dollars, expand- • Capacity rises even as unit deliver-
will increase at a Compound An-
nual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.7% ing availability
5.0 of natural gas fuel in ies fall. In recent decades, escalating
through 2018, when it will reach $25 developing0.0
regions and an accelerat- fuel costs and stricter emissions re-
billion globally. . ing demand for high-capacity power
2009 2010 2011 2012
quirements have driven the adoption
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
0.0
• The fastest-growing industry service plant projects will see the spotlight of high-output, high-efficiency GT
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Powergen Base (by region and age) North America has the largest installed fleet of gas turbine powergen units, and
the largest regional complement of units with more than 30 years of service.
Source: AeroStrategy
• Current installed base. In 2009, units in 2018. which72% had the largest fleet and the top
the installed base of mechani- • Some regions surge, others retreat, five engines by number of units in
cal drive GTs totaled 14,052 units, yielding modest growth in overall 2009, will continue to maintain its top
with light frame engines accounting maintenance spending. Total mainte- ranking for new unit deliveries and to-
for 64%. The remainder was evenly nance spending will increase by 2.3 tal installed base. However, larger en-
split between heavy frame units and CAGR, reaching $4.2 billion in 2018. gines – most notably the GE Frame 5
aeroderivatives, at 18% each. However, unlike power genera- and Rolls-Royce RB211 – will take the
• Leading nameplates. Solar engines tion markets where capacity demand largest share of maintenance dollars.
India
accounted for 38% of all units, fol- trends in one direction Other only, devel- China 2%
Africa 3%
Hitachi 10%
lowed by Rolls-Royce, GE and Zorya opment of oil2%& gas infrastructure
Zorya General Marine base flat, but service
6% rises
North
Mashproekt Electric E Europe/Russia America
Mashproekt. moves in2%cycles, the effects of which 39% Considered side-by-side with
7% 30% pow-
Pratt & Whitney
• Utilization. 70% of installed units are evident
3% in AeroStrategy’s projec- ergen and mechanical drive units,
Mitsubishi
were being used in compression/pump tion. Formerly-dominant regions with
4% perhaps
Latin Americathe most remarkable thing
8% By
By
systems, with the remainder in pipe- mature infrastructure OEM
Solar Turbines and declining or about the marine Region engine maintenance
6%
line drive and gas transmission/trans- stalled production (Western Europe,
Rolls Royce
market is how little – aside from its
port roles. North America)
6% see flat or negative value – will change over the next nine
Asia Pacific
14%
• Regional distribution. North Ameri- growth, while market expansion
Siemens
Alstom
in E. years. Western
Europe
13% Middle East
ca, E. Europe/Russia, the Middle East Europe/Russia – which is still 15%devel- Driven largely 14%
by military
16% con-
upgrades. 20.0
• Maintenance spending. Maintenance
expenditures totaled 3.8 billion.
15.0