RU

LI
NG
TH
E
RO
OS
T

The
Rhodes
Cook
Letter
April 2018
 The Rhodes Cook Letter
APRIL 2018 / VOL. 18, NO. 2
(ISSN 1552-8189)

Contents
I. Ruling the Roost. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Chart & Bar Graphs: Republican Periods of Dominance Limited since the Depression. . 4
Chart: & Pie Charts: South, Midwest Key to Republican Dominance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Chart & Map: Controlling the Country: President, Congress, and the States . . . . . . . . 6
Chart & Bar Graphs: Current Republican Dominance Belied by 2016 Popular Vote . . 8
Chart & Bar Graphs: From Truman to Trump: Presidential Approval and
Unemployment Rates 15 Months into a New Presidency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

II. The Primaries Begin. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Chart & Map: March Primary Results: Texas and Illinois . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Chart & Line Graph: Texas’ Battle of the Primary Ballots: GOP ‘Wins’ in 2018 but
by Reduced Margin. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Chart: Incumbents Off to Good Start in 2018 Primaries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Chart & Map: The Spring Primaries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

III. The Special Elections Continue. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Chart: 2017-18 Special Senate, House Election Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Chart: 2017-18 Congressional Vacancies: Categories of Departures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Chart: The Changing Composition of the 115th Congress. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

For the Record. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Chart & Maps: What’s Up in 2018 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Issues of “The Rhodes Cook Letter” can be purchased in a four-issue subscription or individually, by check or
through PayPal, and in printed or digital form. Please go to rhodescook.com for more details on the options
available.

To reach Rhodes Cook: Office Phone: 703-772-6048 / E-mail: rhodescook@aol.com / Web: rhodescook.com
Layout and Graphics by Sue Hoye/ Sue@hoyes.org

All contents are copyrighted ©2018 Rhodes Cook. Use of the material is welcome with attribution, although the author
retains full copyright over the material contained herein.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • April 2018 2

 Ruling the Roost
T he current state of the Republican Party reminds one of that old adage: “Beware what
you wish for, you might get it.” Beleaguered and publicly at odds with itself, the GOP is
also arguably at the apex of its political power since the 1920s.
The breadth of Republican dominance these days is not just impressive, it’s staggering. They
control the White House, both chambers of Congress, a vast majority of governorships and an
overwhelming share of state legislative chambers. In short, by the numbers alone, the political
world is their oyster.
That could change as early as November. Periods of GOP dominance over the last 90 years
have been few and far between – basically, the first two years of Dwight D. Eisenhower’s
presidency in the early 1950s, and four and one-half years during George W. Bush’s presidency
early this century. That’s it.
Democrats could win the House of Representatives this fall, maybe even the Senate, but
their longer term challenge is to expand isolated beachheads in the states so that they are a
competitive force again at the nation’s grass roots. They are being overwhelmed there now.
For much of the second half of the 20th century, the Republicans were basically a presidential
party and not much else. They won the White House often, but rarely controlled Congress, and
more often than not, held a minority of governorships. Not so nowadays. Their strength grows
as one approaches the grass roots. Donald Trump, for instance, was elected in 2016 with 46%
of the popular vote. Republicans hold 51% of the Senate seats, 54% of House seats, 66% of
governorships, and 68% of state legislative chambers (according to the National Conference of
State Legislatures in January).
The linchpin of Republican dominance is the South. For a century after the Civil War, it was
known as the “solid (Democratic) South.” Now, it is almost monolithically Republican. The
GOP holds 85% of the region’s Senate seats (22 out of 26), 72% of the House seats (107 of 149,
including vacancies), 77% of the governorships (10 of 13), and all 26 state legislative chambers.
So important is the South to the GOP that without it there would be no Republican Senate, no
Republican House, and no President Donald Trump. He took 91% of the region’s electoral votes
(160 of 175), which represented more than half of the 304 that he won nationally. In the South,
Trump lost only Virginia.
Following the South in importance to the Republican Party is the Midwest. It is the party’s
ancestral home, whether one chooses Ripon, Wis., or Jackson, Mich., as the GOP’s birthplace
in the 1850s. Four battleground states critical to Trump’s election are in the Midwest – Iowa,
Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Republicans possess nearly two-thirds of the region’s House
seats (60 of 92), all but one of its governors (Minnesota’s Mark Dayton is the lone Democrat),
and all but two of its state legislative chambers. Only in the Senate are the two parties fairly
even, with 13 seats for the Republicans and 11 for the Democrats.
As for the Democrats, they are strong on the two coasts – the Pacific West, anchored by
California, and most of the Northeast, anchored by New York. But Democratic strength in
these two areas is not enough to offset Republican dominance in the South and the nation’s
heartland.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • April 2018 3

Historically, the heyday of the Republican Party came in a seven-decade period from the Civil
War until the onset of the Depression in 1929. The Democrats elected only two presidents in
this period, Grover Cleveland and Woodrow Wilson, and during most of this time the GOP
controlled both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue (the White House and both houses of Congress).
During this period, Republicans were viewed as the party of Abraham Lincoln, a victorious
Union, and industrial growth; Democrats were widely seen as the party of the defeated South
and its segregated, largely rural culture..
That changed with the Depression, as Republicans were in complete control of the federal
government when the economy went badly off the tracks. Almost overnight, the face of the
GOP changed from Lincoln to Herbert Hoover, the beleaguered president at the time of the
nation’s worst financial crisis. The Democratic face became that of Franklin D. Roosevelt,
offering proactive, progressive government in a soothing, confident manner. And with the
(Continued on Page 8)

Republican Periods of Dominance

Limited Since the Depression
The Republicans were America’s 100%-
Republicans at end of April 2018)

dominant party for most of the

period from the Civil War in
(Percentage of Seats held by

80%-
the early 1860s to the start of
the Depression in 1929. But
60%- 66%
since then, they have rarely
enjoyed the hegemony in state 54%
51%
and national politics that they 40%-
do now. That is particularly the
case at the state level, where 20%-
Republicans have significantly
outflanked the Democrats in 0%-
recent years. Senate House Governorships

Republican Republican Seats Percentage of Total

Years
President Senate House Governors Senate House Governors
1953-54 Dwight Eisenhower 48 221 30 50% 51% 62%
2001* George W. Bush 50 221 29 50% 51% 58%
2003-04 George W. Bush 51 229 26 51% 53% 52%
2005-06 George W. Bush 55 232 28 55% 53% 56%
2017-18 Donald Trump 51 236 33 51% 54% 66%
Note: The number of Republican Senate, House and gubernatorial seats is based on the totals
coming out of a presidential or midterm election and does not reflect changes that occurred
between national elections. That is, with the exception of the current total, which is based on the
political situation as of April 30, 2018. The first entry in the early 1950s is based on 48 states and
96 Senate seats. An asterisk (*) indicates that control of the Senate switched from Republican to
Democratic in June 2001 when James Jeffords of Vermont left the GOP to become an independent.
Percentages that end in “.5” are rounded to the nearest even number.
Sources: Vital Statistics on American Politics (CQ Press, an imprint of SAGE Publications) for
Republican Senate and House totals; Congressional Quarterly’s Guide to U.S. Elections for GOP
gubernatorial totals.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • April 2018 4

 South, Midwest Key to Republican Dominance
The South is the basic building Percentage of GOP Percentage of GOP
block of current Republican Senate Seats by Region House Seats by Region
dominance, especially at the federal
level. Forty-five percent of all GOP
Northeast Northeast
House seats are from the South
as are 43% of all Senate seats. West 6% West 13%
25% South South
Meanwhile, the Midwest provides 17%
43% 45%
Republicans with their highest
number of governorships (11). The
Midwest Midwest
states that comprise each region 25% 25%
can be found in the “Controlling the
Country” chart on pages 6 and 7.

Senate House Each Region’s Share of All GOP Seats

Region
Dem. Rep. Ind. Dem. Rep. Senate House
South 4 22 - 40 107 43% 45%
Midwest 11 13 - 32 60 25% 25%
West 13 13 - 63 39 25% 17%
Northeast 19 3 2 58 30 6% 13%
TOTAL 47 51 2 193 236

Percentage of GOP Percentage of GOP State

Governors by Region Legislative Chambers by Region
Northeast South Northeast
18% 30% West 12% South
West 39%
19%
18%
Midwest Midwest
33% 30%

State Legislative Each Region’s Share of All GOP Governors/Chambers

Governors
Region Chambers
Governors State Legislative Chambers
Dem. Rep. Ind. Dem. Rep.
South 3 10 - 0 26 30% 39%
Midwest 1 11 - 2 20 33% 30%
West 6 6 1 13 13 18% 19%
Northeast 6 6 - 16 8 18% 12%
TOTAL 16 33 1 31 67
Note: Partisan totals for the Senate, House, and governorships are as of April 30, 2018, when there were six
vacancies in the House. Currently there are a total of six House vacancies in Michigan, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma,
Pennsylvania, and Texas. Control of state legislative chambers is as of Jan. 10, 2018. In Alaska, Democrats had
functional control of the state House then, but Republicans have the most seats. The National Conference of State
Legislatures counts it as a Republican chamber, with a caveat. In Connecticut, both Democrats and Republicans have
the same number of seats in the state Senate, but the Democratic lieutenant governor could cast tie-breaking votes.
Nebraska has a non-partisan, unicameral legislature, so the nationwide total of state legislative chambers in partisan
hands is 98. Percentages do not always add to 100 due to rounding.
Source: The House clerk’s office for the partisan composition of the House of Representatives. The National
Conference of State Legislatures for the number of state legislative chambers controlled by each party.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • April 2018 5

 Controlling the Country: President, Congress, and the States
Voted straight Republican
Voted straight Republican with one exception
Voted straight Democratic
Voted straight Democratic with one exception
Not dominated by either party
("Straight" Republican or Democrat reflects wall-to-wall dominance by
one party or the other of federal and major state offices in a particular
state - based on the vote for president in
2016, current control of both U.S. Senate
seats, a majority of U.S. House seats, the
governorship, and both state legislative
chambers.)
The nation has been steadily moving toward a
collection of one-party states, where a single
party dominates the voting for federal and major
state offices. Sixteen states can be considered
“straight Republican,” with both senators, a
majority of House seats, the governorship, and
both legislative chambers all in GOP hands,
as well as a vote for Donald Trump in the
2016 presidential election. Eleven other states
are “straight Republican with one exception,”
such as a Senate seat that belongs to the
Democrats, as is the case in Florida, Ohio,
and West Virginia. Meanwhile, eight states are
“straight Democratic” and six more “straight
Democratic with an exception.” That leaves just
nine states that are not dominated by either
party, as each controls multiple power sources.
Case in point, Pennsylvania, where Democrats
hold the governorship and a Senate seat, while
Republicans hold a Senate seat, a majority of
House seats, and both chambers of the state
Legislature, as well as breaking for Trump in the
last presidential election.

STATE
Pres. Vote SENATORS REPRESENTATIVES
State Governor LEGISLATURE
in ‘16
Dem. Rep. Ind. Dem. Rep. Senate House
NATIONAL
Clinton by 2% 47 51 2 193 236 - - -
TOTAL
NORTHEAST
Connecticut Clinton by 14% 2 0 5 0 Dan Malloy (D) D D
Delaware Clinton by 11% 2 0 1 0 John Carney (D) D D
Maine Clinton by 3% 0 1 1 1 1 Paul LePage (R) R D
Maryland Clinton by 26% 2 0 7 1 Larry Hogan (R) D D
Massachusetts Clinton by 27% 2 0 9 0 Charles Baker (R) D D
New Hampshire Clinton by 0.3% 2 0 2 0 Chris Sununu (R) R R
New Jersey Clinton by 14% 2 0 7 5 Phil Murphy (D) D D
New York Clinton by 22% 2 0 17 9 Andrew Cuomo (D) R D
Pennsylvania Trump by 0.7% 1 1 6 11 Thomas Wolf (D) R R
Rhode Island Clinton by 16% 2 0 2 0 Gina Raimondo (D) D D
Vermont Clinton by 26% 1 0 1 1 0 Phil Scott (R) D D
West Virginia Trump by 42% 1 1 0 3 Jim Justice (R) R R
Northeast Total 19 3 2 58 30 6 Dems., 6 Reps.
MIDWEST
Illinois Clinton by 17% 2 0 11 7 Bruce Rauner (R) D D
Indiana Trump by 19% 1 1 2 7 Eric Holcomb (R) R R
Iowa Trump by 9% 0 2 1 3 Kim Reynolds (R) R R
Kansas Trump by 21% 0 2 0 4 Jeff Colyer (R) R R
Michigan Trump by 0.2% 2 0 4 9 Rick Snyder (R) R R

The Rhodes Cook Letter • April 2018 6

 STATE
Pres. Vote SENATORS REPRESENTATIVES
State Governor LEGISLATURE
in ‘16
Dem. Rep. Ind. Dem. Rep. Senate House
NATIONAL
Clinton by 2% 47 51 2 193 236 - - -
TOTAL
Minnesota Clinton by 2% 2 0 5 3 Mark Dayton (D) R R
Missouri Trump by 19% 1 1 2 6 Eric Greitens (R) R R
Nebraska Trump by 25% 0 2 0 3 Pete Ricketts (R) - -
North Dakota Trump by 36% 1 1 0 1 Doug Burgum (R) R R
Ohio Trump by 8% 1 1 4 11 John Kasich (R) R R
South Dakota Trump by 30% 0 2 0 1 Dennis Daugaard (R) R R
Wisconsin Trump by 0.7% 1 1 3 5 Scott Walker (R) R R
Midwest Total 11 13 32 60 11 Reps., 1 Dem.
SOUTH
Alabama Trump by 28% 1 1 1 6 Kay Ivey (R) R R
Arkansas Trump by 27% 0 2 0 4 Asa Hutchinson (R) R R
Florida Trump by 1% 1 1 11 16 Rick Scott (R) R R
Georgia Trump by 5% 0 2 4 10 Nathan Deal (R) R R
Kentucky Trump by 30% 0 2 1 5 Matt Bevin (R) R R
Louisiana Trump by 20% 0 2 1 5 John Bel Edwards (D) R R
Mississippi Trump by 18% 0 2 1 3 Phil Bryant (R) R R
North Carolina Trump by 4% 0 2 3 10 Roy Cooper (D) R R
Oklahoma Trump by 36% 0 2 0 4 Mary Fallin (R) R R
South Carolina Trump by 14% 0 2 1 6 Henry McMaster (R) R R
Tennessee Trump by 26% 0 2 2 7 Bill Haslam (R) R R
Texas Trump by 9% 0 2 11 24 Greg Abbott (R) R R
Virginia Clinton by 5% 2 0 4 7 Ralph Northam (D) R R
South Total 4 22 40 107 10 Reps., 3 Dems.
WEST
Alaska Trump by 15% 0 2 0 1 Bill Walker (Ind.) R R
Arizona Trump by 4% 0 2 4 5 Doug Ducey (R) R R
California Clinton by 30% 2 0 39 14 Jerry Brown (D) D D
Colorado Clinton by 5% 1 1 3 4 John Hickenlooper (D) R D
Hawaii Clinton by 32% 2 0 2 0 David Ige (D) D D
Idaho Trump by 32% 0 2 0 2 C.L. “Butch” Otter (R) R R
Montana Trump by 20% 1 1 0 1 Steve Bullock (D) R R
Nevada Clinton by 2% 1 1 3 1 Brian Sandoval (R) D D
New Mexico Clinton by 8% 2 0 2 1 Susana Martinez (R) D D
Oregon Clinton by 11% 2 0 4 1 Kate Brown (D) D D
Utah Trump by 18% 0 2 0 4 Gary Herbert (R) R R
Washington Clinton by 16% 2 0 6 4 Jay Inslee (D) D D
Wyoming Trump by 46% 0 2 0 1 Matt Mead (R) R R
West Total 13 13 63 39 6 Dems., 6 Reps., 1 Ind.
Note: Nebraska has a unicameral legislature that is officially nonpartisan. The break down of Senate and House seats by
party is as of April 30, 2018. House vacancies exist in Michigan, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, and Texas.
Independent senators in Maine and Vermont caucus with the Democrats.
Sources: America Votes 32 (CQ Press, an imprint of SAGE), for basic information on gubernatorial and congressional
totals. Information on the control of state legislative chambers is from the National Conference of State Legislatures (as of
Jan. 10, 2018).

The Rhodes Cook Letter • April 2018 7

 (Continued from Page 4)

Depression, the Republicans went from being a seemingly permanent majority party into a
struggling minority.
The GOP was slow to recover from its negative branding. Over the rest of the 20th century,
they held the White House, the Senate, the House, and a majority of governorships at the same
time for only two years at the beginning of the Eisenhower presidency. (The partisan tally of
state legislative chambers is more difficult to historically track.) The GOP would not win both
chambers of Congress again until 1994, and the White House along with it until 2000. That
period of Republican hegemony ended when Republicans lost Congress during the second
midterm election of George W. Bush’s presidency in 2006.
The party’s present domination is the product of gains made during the presidency of
Barack Obama. Republicans won the House as well as a majority of governorships in 2010
and maintained control of both since then. In 2014, the GOP picked up the Senate and has
maintained control there. And in 2016, they added the missing link, the White House – all the
time tightening their control

Current Republican Dominance

at the state legislative level.
When winning these basic
building blocks, Republicans
could run as the "party of no." Belied by 2016 Popular Vote
They could pledge smaller
government, lower taxes, Republican Democrat
and a hefty military presence 50%-
49.1%
(Percentage of Vote)

without being judged too 48.2% 48.1%

harshly on their performance 46.1%
in office, since the Democrat
Obama was president. Not 25%-
so this year, with nearly all
the nation’s elected power
sources controlled by the 0%-
GOP. Popular vote for president in 2016 Aggregate vote for the House
The Republicans’ current dominance of the federal government was not built
Whether they can hold what
on landslides at the ballot box but votes that were well distributed. In the
they presently possess is 2016 presidential contest, Donald Trump was elected in spite of a deficit
another manner. For better of nearly 2.9 million in the popular vote, while the GOP’s clear-cut House
or worse, they will go into majority of nearly 50 seats was built on an aggregate edge in the nationwide
the midterm battle under the congressional vote of barely 1.2 million. That was just 1 percentage point
banner of President Trump, better than the Democratic total. The presidential and House races were the
who has forcefully injected only ones contested in 2016 in all 50 states.
himself into the campaign. He HOUSE OF
PRESIDENT
has made himself the face of REPRESENTATIVES
the present-day Republican Votes % of Vote Votes % of Vote
Party, basically replacing Republicans 62,984,824 46.1% 62,977,071 49.1%
Ronald Reagan. A fighter and Democrats 65,853,510 48.2% 61,753,341 48.1%
a polarizer, Trump will both Others 7,829,054 5.7% 3,646,898 2.8%
rally and repel in 2018, and TOTAL 136,667,388 128,377,310
which he does better will be Plurality 2,868,686 D 1,224,467 R
a major factor in the midterm Source: America Votes 32 (CQ Press, an imprint of SAGE Publications).
election outcome.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • April 2018 8

 From Truman to Trump: Presidential Approval and
Unemployment Rates 15 Months into a New Presidency
100%- Approval rating in Gallup Poll 15 months into a new presidency

80%-

60%-

40%-

20%-

0%-
Kennedy G.W. Bush Eisenhower George
Johnson H.W. Nixon Clinton Obama Truman Reagan Ford Carter Trump
(D) (R) (R) (D) Bush (R) (D) (D) (D) (R)
(R) (D) (R) (R)

Donald Trump finished his first year in office with a job approval rating well below that of any other post-World
War II president at a similar point in their administration. Now, after 15 months in office, Trump's approval
rating is still the lowest of any postwar president, but he is clustered with four of his predecessors around the
40% mark. The others at 43% or below 15 months into office were Harry Truman, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter,
and Ronald Reagan. Benefitting Trump has been a strong economy with a low unemployment rate, actually the
lowest for any post-World War II president at the 15th month of his administration (3.9%). Trump also has the
overwhelming support of Republican voters, the latter the key to his political survival. The Gallup Poll is used
here because of its long track record in measuring presidential approval ratings back to the 1930s.
Approval ratings and unemployment rates 15 months into a new presidency
Approval Rating in Unemployment
President Month and Year
Gallup Poll Rate
Harry Truman (D)# June '46 43% -
Dwight D. Eisenhower (R) April '54 68% 5.9%
John F. Kennedy (D) April '62 77% 5.6%
Lyndon B. Johnson (D)# Feb. '65 68% 5.1%
Richard Nixon (R) April '70 56% 4.6%
Gerald Ford (R)# Nov. '75 41% 8.3%
Jimmy Carter (D) April '78 40% 6.1%
Ronald Reagan (R) April '82 43% 9.3%
George H.W. Bush (R) April '90 67% 5.4%
Bill Clinton (D) April '94 51% 6.4%
George W. Bush (R) April '02 77% 5.9%
Barack Obama (D) April '10 50% 9.9%
Donald Trump (R) April '18 39% 3.9%
Note: Presidential approval scores and unemployment rates are from the 15-month mark of a new presidency
or close to it. For newly elected presidents, both the approval ratings and unemployment rates are from April of
their second year in office. A dash (-) indicates that the unemployment rate is not readily available. A pound sign
(#) indicates that Harry Truman became president in April 1945 upon the death of Franklin D. Roosevelt; Lyndon
B. Johnson took office in November 1963 upon the assassination of John F. Kennedy; Gerald Ford assumed the
presidency in August 1974 upon the resignation of Richard Nixon. The Gallup surveys were conducted over a
period of days and the month that is listed is when the survey was completed. President Trump's approval rating
is based on a Gallup Poll survey taken April 16-22, 2018.
Sources: Gallup Poll for presidential approval ratings; the Bureau of Labor Statistics for unemployment rates
(seasonally adjusted).

The Rhodes Cook Letter • April 2018 9

 The Primaries Begin
T his may end up being the most consequential midterm election in decades, but 2018’s
long primary season has begun with a whimper rather than a bang. At least that was the
case for House, Senate and gubernatorial incumbents in the opening pair of primaries held last
month in Texas and Illinois.
Both are among the nation’s most populous states, with primaries for governor in both, the
Senate in one (Texas), and for the House in a combined total of more than 50 districts. Yet none
of the incumbents in the two states lost their bid for renomination, and only two had to even
break a sweat to win.

That could change as the primaries multiply in number in May and June. Yet these isolated early
contests gave a hint that incumbents may not have as much to fear from their party’s voters in
2018 as anticipated.

March Primary Results: Texas and Illinois

Following are results from Democratic and State with primaries for both governor and Senate
Republican primaries held in March for State with a primary for governor
governor and the U.S. Senate. No other state
and congressional primaries were held before
May. Results are included for all candidates who
received at least 10% of their party’s primary vote,
and are based on official returns from Texas and
Illinois, as posted on the election web site of each
state. Winners are listed in bold type. Primary
winners in each party are capitalized. A pound
sign (#) indicates the two candidates in the Texas
Democratic gubernatorial primary who qualified for
a runoff to be held on May 22.
TEXAS PRIMARY (March 6)
In ruby red Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott and Sen Ted Cruz, both Republicans, embellished their chances for reelection this
fall with easy primary victories over token opposition. For Cruz, who was Donald Trump’s closest and arguably most
combative competitor for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016, a main concern was to avoid a Trump-backed
challenger this year. He did, and in November will face three-term Rep. Beto O’Rourke from El Paso. Abbott, who drew
nearly 80,000 more votes in the GOP gubernatorial primary than Cruz in the Republican Senate primary, will have to wait
until May 22 to see who his general election opponent will be. Lupe Valdez, reportedly the state’s first female Hispanic
sheriff, led the Democratic primary field but fell short of the majority needed to win the nomination outright. Her
challenger in the runoff will be Andrew White, a son of former Democratic Gov. Mark White.
GOVERNOR
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLICAN
Candidates Occupation Votes % Candidates Occupation Votes %
Lupe Valdez# Ex-Dallas Co. sheriff 438,820 43% GREG ABBOTT INCUMBENT 1,400,647 90%
Andrew White# Houston investor 280,200 27% Others - 148,359 10%
Others - 303,538 30%
Total Vote 1,022,558 Total Vote 1,549,006
SENATOR

The Rhodes Cook Letter • April 2018 10

 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLICAN
Candidates Occupation Votes % Candidates Occupation Votes %
BETO O’ROURKE U.S. Representative 644,632 62% TED CRUZ INCUMBENT 1,322,724 85%
Self-described
Sema Hernandez 247,424 24% Others - 226,849 15%
“Berniecrat”
Retired postal
Edward Kimbrough 150,858 14%
worker
Total Vote 1,042,914 Total Vote 1,549,573
ILLINOIS PRIMARY (March 20)
By the time it is over this fall, the Illinois gubernatorial election could be the most expensive race for governor in the nation’s
history. It features two very wealthy nominees in Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner and Democrat J.B. Pritzker, both successful
investors who have been quick to spend their own money. Early in his reelection campaign, Rauner provided himself a $50
million contribution, while Pritzker spent about $70 million out of his own pocket to win the Democratic primary. The latter,
a major Democratic donor over the years, ran with the support of much of organized labor and the state and Cook County
(Chicago) Democratic establishment. Pritzker defeated his nearest rival, Daniel Biss, by nearly 20 percentage points. Biss ran
as a progressive “Berniecrat” of sorts, while Chris Kennedy, a son of Robert F. Kennedy, sought to paint himself as a political
outsider; he finished third in the Democratic primary. On the Republican side, Rauner barely survived a socially conservative
challenge from Jeanne Ives, who claimed the governor was not tough enough on either immigration or abortion.
GOVERNOR
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLICAN
Candidates Occupation Votes % Candidates Occupation Votes %
BRUCE
J.B. PRITZKER Hyatt Hotels heir 597,756 45% INCUMBENT 372,124 52%
RAUNER
Daniel Biss State Senator 353,625 27% Jeanne Ives State Representative 350,038 48%
Real estate
Chris Kennedy 322,730 24%
developer
Others - 50,437 4%
Total Vote 1,324,548 Total Vote 722,162

In recent years, it has become conventional wisdom that the main hurdle for many incumbents
is not the general election, but the primary, particularly in those many states and districts that
lean strongly to one party or the other. Yet it could be that with control of the House and
Senate in play in 2018, with the controversial presidency of Donald Trump as a backdrop, and
with many more seats apparently in play this year than usual, party infighting may take a back
seat to nominating electable candidates.

And that would be good news for incumbents. At the least, it is a theme that bears watching as
the primary season unfolds.

In Texas, which held its primary on March 6, one sitting representative was defeated in the
primaries in 2012 and again in 2014. This time, no House member in the Lone Star state was
renominated with less than 63% of their party’s primary vote. For good measure, Republican
Gov. Greg Abbott and GOP Sen. Ted Cruz, won their primaries with 90% and 85% of the vote,
respectively.

In Illinois, which voted March 20, the story was similar – with two conspicuous exceptions. In
the Republican gubernatorial primary, incumbent Bruce Rauner fended off state Rep. Jeanne

The Rhodes Cook Letter • April 2018 11

Ives by just 3 percentage points, or put another way, barely 22,000 votes out of more than
720,000 cast. Meanwhile, in the Democratic primary in the Chicago-area 3rd District, seven-
term Democratic incumbent Dan Lipinski survived a challenge from progressive activist Marie
Newman by just 2 points.

Both contests had ideological overtones. Lipinski is pro life; Newman pro choice. Lipinski was
backed by a large swath of organized labor; Newman was supported by Bernie Sanders, Gloria

Texas' Battle of the Primary Ballots: GOP

'Wins' in 2018 but by Reduced Margin
Total major-party primary votes for governor Total Republican primary votes Total Democratic primary votes

2.75m-
2.50m-
(Primary votes for governor)

2.25m-
2.0m-
1.75m-
1.50m-
1.25m-
1.0m-
750k-
500k-
250k-
0-
1990 1994 2006 2010 2014 2018
For several elections now, Democrats have felt they were on the verge of transforming Texas from a red state
to a purple one. It hasn’t happened yet, although this year was the first since 1994 - when Ann Richards, Texas’
last Democratic governor, was running for reelection - that at least 1 million votes were cast in the Democratic
gubernatorial primary. Meanwhile, the Republican primary for governor in 2018 attracted more than 1.5 million
voters, a record turnout for the GOP in a Lone Star state gubernatorial primary. The election of 1990 was selected
as the starting point for this chart, since it was the year that Texas Democrats elected their last governor in a state
that was still basically blue, albeit an increasingly pale blue. Primary turnouts are included only from years when
both parties had contested primaries for governor; for that reason, 1998 and 2002 are excluded.
% of Major-Party
Gubernatorial Gubernatorial
Election Governor Elected Primary Dem. Rep. Primary Vote
Turnout
Dem. Rep.
1990 Ann Richards (D) 2,342,491 1,487,260 855,231 63% 37%
1994 George W. Bush (R) 1,594,284 1,036,944 557,340 65% 35%
2006 Rick Perry (R)* 1,164,521 508,602 655,919 44% 56%
2010 Rick Perry (R)* 2,165,090 680,548 1,484,542 31% 69%
2014 Greg Abbott (R) 1,891,889 554,014 1,337,875 29% 71%
2018 - 2,571,564 1,022,558 1,549,006 40% 60%
Note: An asterisk (*) indicates an incumbent. The primary vote for governor is used here because in midterm
election years it is often the statewide office that draws the most votes.
Sources: Editions of America Votes (CQ Press, an imprint of SAGE Publications) for gubernatorial primary turnouts
from 1990 through 2014. This year’s results are based on official returns posted on the Texas election web site.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • April 2018 12

 Steinem and an array of progressive groups. Lipinski said his challenger had a "tea party of the
left" agenda; Newman called the incumbent a “Trump Democrat.” And at times, her attacks were
much sharper than that. “I know what’s in his heart, and it’s called hate,” Newman said at one
point during the campaign. On primary night, she refused to concede the race, saying: “I would
like Mr. Lipinski to have a very painful evening.”

The Republican gubernatorial fight did not involve such personal enmity, but exposed serious
antipathy to Rauner from the right wing of his party. The governor, already drawing criticism
for his role in a two-year state budget impasse, tacked to the center in bright blue Illinois last
year on issues such as abortion and sanctuary-like protections for immigrants. It opened the
door for Ives’ challenge from the right. Ultimately, she carried nearly 40 of Illinois’ 102 counties;
among them, four of Chicago’s suburban “collar counties”: DuPage, Kane, McHenry, and Will.

In the general election, Rauner faces billionaire investor J.B. Pritzker, a brother of Penny
Pritzker, who served as commerce secretary in the administration of Barack Obama. Pritzker
handily won the Democratic gubernatorial primary, drawing 225,000 more votes than Rauner
amassed in the Republican contest. Another sign of trouble for the incumbent: The overall
Democratic gubernatorial turnout of 1.32 million was fully 600,000 more than turned out on the
GOP side.

It was the reverse of the turnout battle in scarlet-hued Texas, where greater than a half million
more voters cast primary ballots on the Republican side than the Democratic. Such primary
turnout disparities do not always indicate who will be the winner in November, but they often
give a strong hint at which party heads into the general election campaign in a stronger position.

Incumbents Off to Good Start in 2018 Primaries

Only two state primaries were held by the end of April, but they were in major states - Texas and Illinois. Often an
incumbent or two are primary casualties in the pair but not this year. No sitting governor, senator, or House member
in Texas or Illinois lost their bid for renomination and only two had to break a sweat, both in Illinois. Gov. Bruce
Rauner fended off a challenge from the Republican right by just 3 percentage points, while Rep. Dan Lipinski survived
heated competition from the Democratic left by only 2 points. The latter should have little trouble winning reelection
this fall, when he faces a Holocaust denier who has been disowned by major elements of the Republican Party; the
former, though, faces a deep-pocketed Democrat in a state that Hillary Clinton carried in the 2016 presidential election
by 17 percentage points.
Renominated with less than two-thirds of the primary vote (66.7%)
GOVERNOR
Current % of Primary ‘16 Pres. Vote
Incumbent Victory Margin
Term Vote in State
Bruce Rauner (R-Ill.) 1 51.5% Beat Jeanne Ives by 3% Clinton by 17%
REPRESENTATIVES
Current % of Primary ‘16 Pres. Vote
Incumbent Victory Margin
Term Vote in State
Dan Lipinski (D-Ill. 3) 7 51.1% Beat Marie Newman by 2% Clinton by 15%
Mike Quigley (D-Ill. 5) 4 62.5% Beat Sameena Mustafa by 38% Clinton by 47%
Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Texas 30) 13 63.6% Beat Barbara Caraway by 41% Clinton by 61%
John Carter (R-Texas 31) 8 65.5% Beat Mike Sweeney by 31% Trump by 13%
Sources: The incumbent primary vote percentages are based on official returns posted on the Illinois and Texas election
web sites. The current term of each incumbent is from The Almanac of American Politics 2018 (National Journal/
Columbia Books & Information Services). The 2016 presidential vote by congressional district was compiled by Daily Kos.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • April 2018 13

 The Spring Primaries
States with governor, Senate and House primaries
States with gubernatorial and House primaries
States with Senate and House primaries
R R States with House primaries only
R R
R States with a runoff in May or June

Runoff
Date State House Seats Senators Governors
After just two primaries in the Date
first four months of the year, Indiana 9 X
May and June will provide a North Carolina 13 July 17
glut. More than half the states May 8
Ohio 16 X X
will decide their nominees for
the House of Representatives West Virginia 3 X
in this two-month period, as Idaho 2 X
well as for governor and U.S. Nebraska 3 X X
senator in many of the states. May 15
Oregon 5 X
A number of the nation’s
most populous states will Pennsylvania 18 X X
be holding their primaries Arkansas 4 X June 19
– including California, Georgia 14 X July 24
Georgia, New Jersey, North May 22
Kentucky 6
Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania,
and Virginia. California will Texas Runoff -
again showcase its unique Alabama 7 X July 17
“top two” primary, in which California 53 X X
candidates of all parties for
Iowa 4 X
state and congressional office
run together on the same Mississippi 4 X June 26
June 5
ballot. The top two finishers, Montana 1 X
regardless of party, advance New Jersey 12 X
to the November general
election. Runoffs, if needed, New Mexico 3 X X
are scheduled in May and South Dakota 1 X Aug. 14
June in four Southern states - Maine 2 X X
Arkansas, Mississippi, South Nevada 4 X X
Carolina, and Texas.
June 12 North Dakota 1 X
South Carolina 7 X June 26
Virginia 11 X
Note: Mississippi also has June 19 Arkansas Runoff -
a special Senate election
Colorado 7 X
in 2018, with a first-round
vote on Nov. 6 in which Maryland 8 X X
candidates of all parties Mississippi Runoff -
run together on the same June 26 New York 27 X
ballot. If no candidate wins
a majority of the vote, a Oklahoma 5 X Aug. 28
runoff will be held in late South Carolina Runoff -
November between the top Utah 4 X
two finishers in the first- Note: An asterisk (*) indicates that New York will hold a separate primary for state offices on Sept. 13.
round vote.
Sources: Federal Election Commission and the National Conference of State Legislatures for 2018
primary dates.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • April 2018 14

 The Special Elections Continue

A t the end of April, the number of special elections already held to fill vacant
seats in the 115th Congress stood at nine (eight for the House and one for the
Senate). The win total for both parties at that point: Six for the Republicans and three
for the Democrats. Yet it is the latter who have gained momentum from these contests,
with Republican officials using them as object lessons to warn their members to
prepare for a midterm election this fall that could be particularly difficult.
Because eight of the first nine special elections were for previously Republican seats,
the trio of Democratic successes resulted in a pair of high-profile pick ups, one in the
Senate and one in the House.
The Senate victory by Democrat Doug Jones last December in Alabama produced the
first partisan switch via a special Senate election since early 2010, when Republican
Scott Brown won the Senate seat formerly held by Democratic icon Edward Kennedy.
Three months later, Democrat Conor Lamb won a formerly GOP House seat in
southwest Pennsylvania, which resulted in the first partisan switch in a special House
election since November 2012.
Yet losing seats has only been part of the problem for the GOP. Of the six special
elections that the Republicans have won, all but one were with 52% of the vote or less.
That is a tepid showing, given that many of these jurisdictions went for Donald Trump
in 2016 by percentages in the vicinity of 60% and more and Republicans had gone all in
to try and hold the seats in the special elections.
What is the GOP’s problem? While special congressional elections over the years
have usually been low-profile events of little national import, they of late have been
widely viewed as a referendum on Trump and his controversial presidency. He has
furthered that impression by throwing himself into many of the races with gusto, either
by making robo-calls, holding fund raisers, or actively campaigning on behalf of the
Republican candidate. The latter was the case in Alabama and southwest Pennsylvania,
the two places where the GOP has lost seats.
Trump is catnip among Republican voters, but is not so popular among independents,
and is basically persona non grata among Democrats. And it is Democratic voters who
seem to be the most motivated to participate in this election cycle, with generally
high turnouts for special elections helping them to either win or run close. In special
contests for congressional seats in the 114th Congress, turnout did not exceed 100,000
in any special House race not held in conjunction with the November 2016 general
election. Over the last year, three House specials have had turnouts in excess of
225,000.

(continued on page 17)

The Rhodes Cook Letter • April 2018 15

 2017-18 Special Senate,
House Election Results
Through April, the record in special elections to fill Senate and House vacancies in the 115th Congress stood at six wins for
the Republicans and three for the Democrats. Yet it is the Democrats who have picked up momentum from this array of special
contests, which have been contested almost exclusively on GOP terrain. Democrats have picked up a Senate seat in Alabama and
a House seat in southwest Pennsylvania. In addition, five of the six Republican congressional victories have been with a modest
52% of the vote or less. In the chart below, "(W)" indicates the winner of the special election. An asterisk (*) denotes that Luther
Strange was initially appointed to the Senate seat in Alabama held by Republican Jeff Sessions, who left to become attorney
general. Strange, however, lost the Republican Senate nomination to former Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore, who then lost
to Democrat Doug Jones. A pound sign (#) indicates that the special election in the heavily Democratic California 34th District
pitted two Democrats against each other, with Jimmy Gomez defeating Robert Anh, 59% to 41%. Third party candidates were
not a significant factor in any of the 2017-18 special elections, although in the Utah 3rd District, Jim Bennett - the son of former
Republican Sen. Robert Bennett - ran on the ballot line of the United Utah Party and received 9% of the vote.

SPECIAL SENATE ELECTION

‘17 Candidates Special Election Result
Outgoing ‘16 Presidential
State Election
Incumbent Democrat Republican Turnout Dem. Rep. Other Result in State
Date
Luther Strange Doug Jones
Alabama Dec. 12 Roy Moore 1,348,720 50% 48% 2% Trump by 28%
(R)* (W)
SPECIAL HOUSE ELECTIONS
‘17-18 Candidates Special Election Results ‘16 Presidential
Outgoing
District Election Result in
Incumbent Democrat Republican Turnout Dem. Rep. Other
Dates District
Mike Pompeo April 11, James
Kansas 4th Ron Estes (W) 122,594 46% 52% 2% Trump by 27%
(R) 2017 Thompson
Montana Greg
Ryan Zinke (R) May 25 Rob Quist 381,425 44% 50% 6% Trump by 21%
At-Large Gianforte (W)
California Xavier Becerra Jimmy Gomez
June 6 -# 43,179 59% - - Clinton by 73%
34th (D) (W)
Karen Handel
Georgia 6th Tom Price (R) June 20 Jon Ossoff 260,316 48% 52% - Trump by 1.5%
(W)
South Mick Mulvaney Ralph
June 20 Archie Parnell 88,316 48% 51% 1% Trump by 18%
Carolina 5th (R) Norman (W)
Jason Chaffetz John Curtis
Utah 3rd Nov. 7 Kathie Allen 147,796 26% 58% 16% Trump by 23%@
(R) (W)
Pennsylvania March 13, Conor Lamb
Tim Murphy (R) Rick Saccone 228,830 49.9% 49.5% 1% Trump by 20%
18th 2018 (W)
Debbie Lesko
Arizona 8th Trent Franks (R) April 24 Hiral Tipirneni 183,343 48% 52% - Trump by 21%
(W)
Note: The 2016 presidential election margin in Alabama and all congressional districts with special elections in 2017-18 measures
the difference in vote percentage between the two major party candidates, with the exception of the Utah 3rd District. There, the
runner-up was independent Evan McMullin. The presidential victory margin there is denoted by the icon "@."
Sources: Returns for the 2017-18 special Senate and House elections are from the election web sites of the states in which
the Senate or House race took place. All results are official, with the exception of the election in the Arizona 8th District,
where returns are nearly complete but unofficial. The 2016 presidential election margins by congressional district are from a
compilation by Daily Kos.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • April 2018 16

 (continued from page 15)

At least six more special elections will be held this year, with the prospect of a seventh in
Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley, where Republican Rep. Charlie Dent – one of a dwindling breed
of House moderates – has indicated that he will leave Congress in May. When Dent resigns,
he will be the third Republican House member from Pennsylvania to quit his seat during the
115th Congress. Pat Meehan, who represented a district that extends from the Philadelphia
suburbs out toward Reading, and Tim Murphy, who represented a constituency in the
Pittsburgh area that narrowly elected Democrat Conor Lamb, both stepped down over sexual
harassment charges. Murphy left Congress last fall; Meehan this spring.
Special elections for the Dent and Meehan seats will be held in conjunction with the
November midterm elections.
Up next is the contest for the Texas seat formerly held by Republican Blake Farenthold, with
the special election scheduled for June 30. It will be followed by the Ohio special election on
August 7 to fill the seat vacated by Republican Pat Tiberi in January.
The Texas contest is a "snap" election of sorts, to be held less than three months after
Farenthold quit while under an ethics cloud. In scheduling the special election to be held
quickly, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott referred to the need for the district to have representation as
it continues to deal with the devastation from Hurricane Harvey.
The quick date in Texas is in sharp contrast to the situation in Michigan. There, Democrat
John Conyers resigned in December 2017, but Republican Gov. Rick Snyder called the special
election for this November, producing a vacancy that will be nearly a year in length. Unlike
the Texas district, that of Conyers is solidly Democratic.

2017-18 Congressional Vacancies: Categories of Departures

Members of Congress continue to leave Congress at a fast pace, and for a variety of different reasons. Four left office in April
- Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) at the beginning of the month, and Reps. Blake Farenthold (R-Texas), Pat Meehan (R-Pa.), and
Jim Bridenstine (R-Okla.), who resigned following his Senate confirmation as administrator of the National Aeronautics and
Space Administration (NASA) by a 50-to-49 vote. Farenthold and Meehan quit under the weight of sexual harassment charges.
Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Pa.) has indicated that he will give up his House seat in May, after long expressing his displeasure about
the partisanship and dysfunction in Congress. It is a primarily Republican group that has left office thus far in the 115th
Congress - two out of the three senators are Republican, as are 11 of the 14 representatives.

Trump Administration Ethics problems

Health issues/death Other reasons
Position (sexual harassment)
Senator Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) Al Franken (D-Minn.) Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) -
Jim Bridenstine (R-Okla.)
John Conyers (D-Mich.)
Mick Mulvaney (R-S.C.)
Blake Farenthold (R-Texas)
Mike Pompeo (R-Kan.) Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah)
Representatives Trent Franks (R-Ariz.) Louise Slaughter (D-N.Y.)
Tom Price (R-Ga.) Pat Tiberi (R-Ohio)
Pat Meehan (R-Pa.)
Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.)
Tim Murphy (R-Pa.)
Xavier Becerra (D-Calif.)*
Note: An asterisk (*) indicates that Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-Calif.) left Congress upon his appointment by Democratic Gov.
Jerry Brown in early 2017 as California’s attorney general. The congressional departures in the 115th Congress are as of April
30, 2018.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • April 2018 17

 The Changing Composition of the 115th Congress
The steady out-migration of members of the House and Senate continues with the mid-April announcement by
Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Pa. 15) that he will be resigning his House seat, probably as early as May. Dent had earlier
indicated that he would retire at the end of this, his seventh House term. But as an unabashed centrist, he has made
little effort to hide his increasing discomfort with the present state of congressional life for a moderate Republican.
Dent would be the 15th House member to leave office since the start of the 115th Congress, fully 3% of the entire
body. In addition, three senators have stepped down since 2016 - Republicans Jeff Sessions and Thad Cochran, and
Democrat Al Franken. The governors in the latter two states selected women - Democrat Tina Smith of Minnesota
and Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith of Mississippi - to fill the vacancies. Both are running in special elections this year
in a bid to hold their seats.
HOUSE OF
SENATE
Date and Event REPRESENTATIVES
Dems. Reps. Vac. Dems. Reps. Inds.
2016 ELECTION (Nov. 4) 194 241 46 52 2
Jan. 23, 2017 - Rep. Mike Pompeo (R-Kan. 4) resigns to become
194 240 1
director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
Jan. 24, 2017 - Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-Calif. 34) resigns to
193 240 2
become California Attorney General.
Feb. 8, 2017 - Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) resigns to become Attorney
General in the Trump administration. The following day, AL 46 52 2
Attorney General Luther Strange (R) is sworn in as his successor.
Feb. 10, 2017 - Rep. Tom Price (R-Ga. 6) resigns to become
193 239 3
secretary of health and human services.
Feb. 16, 2017 - Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R-S.C. 5) resigns to become
193 238 4
director of the Office of Management and Budget (O.M.B.).
March 1, 2017 - Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont. AL) resigns to become
193 237 5
secretary of the interior.
April 11, 2017 - Ron Estes (R) wins special election in Kansas
193 238 4
4th District.
May 25, 2017 - Greg Gianforte (R) wins special election in
193 239 3
Montana At-Large District.
June 6, 2017 - Jimmy Gomez (D) wins special election in
194 239 2
California 34th District.
June 20, 2017 - Karen Handel (R) wins special election in Georgia
6th District; Ralph Norman (R) wins special election in South 194 241
Carolina 5th District.
June 30, 2017 - Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah 3) resigns and
194 240 1
becomes a contributor on Fox News.
Oct. 21, 2017 - Rep. Tim Murphy (R-Pa. 18) resigns after it was
disclosed that the anti-abotion congressman told a mistress to 194 239 2
terminate a possible pregnancy.
Nov. 7, 2017 - John Curtis (R) wins special election in Utah 3rd
194 240 1
District.
Dec. 5, 2017 - Rep. John Conyers (D-Mich. 13) resigns after
multiple women who served on his staff accuse him of sexual 193 240 2
harassment.
Dec. 8, 2017 - Rep. Trent Franks (R-Ariz. 8) resigns after it was
disclosed that he talked to multiple young women on his staff 193 239 3
about surrogacy.
Dec. 12, 2017 - Doug Jones (D) wins Alabama special Senate
47 51 2
election.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • April 2018 18

 HOUSE OF
SENATE
Date and Event REPRESENTATIVES
Dems. Reps. Vac. Dems. Reps. Inds. Vac.
2016 ELECTION (Nov. 4) 194 241 46 52 2
Jan. 2, 2018 – Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) resigns after a number
of women accuse him of inappropriately touching them. The
47 51 2
following day, Lt. Gov. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) is sworn in as his
successor.
Jan. 15, 2018 – Rep. Pat Tiberi (R-Ohio 12) resigns to become
193 238 4
president of the Ohio Business Roundtable.
March 13, 2018 - Conor Lamb (D) wins special election in
194 238 3
Pennsylvania 18th District.
March 16, 2018 - Rep. Louise Slaughter (D-N.Y. 25) dies at age 88
193 238 4
after suffering complications from a fall.
April 1, 2018 - Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) resigns at age 80 due
47 50 2 1
to failing health.
April 6, 2018 - Rep. Blake Farenthold (R-Texas 27) resigns as
House Ethics Committee has him in their sights for sexual
193 237 5
harassment and improper use of federal funds to pay a female
staffer he allegedly harassed.
April 9, 2018 - Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) sworn in to fill
47 51 2
vacancy created by Sen. Thad Cochran's resignation.
April 23, 2018 - Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R-Okla. 1) resigns to
become administrator of the National Aeronautic and Space 193 236 6
Administration (NASA).
April 24, 2018 - Debbie Lesko (R) wins special election in Arizona
193 237 5
8th District.
April 27, 2018 - Rep. Pat Meehan (R-Pa. 7) resigns after reports
that he had paid a secret settlement to a member of his staff
193 236 6
who had accused him of harassment, drawing a House Ethics
Committee probe.

….. AND THE GOVERNORSHIPS

Dems. Reps. Inds.
2016 GENERAL ELECTION (Nov. 8) 16 33 1
Jan. 24, 2017 - Gov. Nikki Haley (R) resigns to become ambassador to the United Nations.
16 33 1
She is succeeded by Lt. Gov. Henry McMaster (R).
April 10, 2017 - Gov. Robert Bentley (R-Ala.) resigns under threat of impeachment for using
16 33 1
public funds to hide an affair with a former top aide. He is succeeded by Lt. Gov. Kay Ivey (R).
May 24, 2017 - Gov. Terry Branstad (R-Iowa) resigns to become ambassador to China. He is
16 33 1
succeeded by Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R).
Aug. 3, 2017 - Gov. Jim Justice switches his party affiliation from Democratic to
15 34 1
Republican.
Nov. 7, 2017 - Phil Murphy (D) wins governorship in New Jersey, while Lt. Gov. Ralph
Northam (D) wins in Virginia. (Results produce a Democratic pick up of one 16 33 1
governorship, in New Jersey.)
Jan. 31, 2018 - Gov. Sam Brownback (R-Kan.) resigns to become ambassador at-large for
16 33 1
international religious freedom. He is succeeded by Lt. Gov. Jeff Colyer (R).
Note: “Vac.” stands for Vacancy. Changes are as of April 30, 2018.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • April 2018 19

 What's Up in 2018
Republican Democrat Independent
* States with an open Gubernatorial or Senate race

2 States with two Senate races

Governorships Senate Seats
up in 2018 up in 2018

* * * 2

** ** * ** *
*
* * ** * 2 *
*
The 2018 midterm elections are arguably the most consequential since 1994, when Republicans won both houses of Congress
in the same election for the first time in 42 years. This time it is the Republicans who are on the spot. The midterms are
widely viewed as the first nationwide referendum on the controversial presidency of Donald Trump, and will determine the
strength of the Democratic resistance in the years that immediately follow. In addition, gubernatorial and state legislative races
in 2018 will play a significant role in many states in determining partisan control of the redistricting process to take place in
the wake of the 2020 census. Altogether, more than one-third of all Senate seats are up this year, nearly three-fourths of the
governorships, and all of the House seats. Democrats are on the defensive in the Senate (where the vast majority of seats up
are theirs), while the situation is reversed in the House and at the state level (where Republicans dominate the governorships
and state legislatures).
Seats Up in '18
‘16 Presidential House Seats
Governors Senators
Vote Dem. Rep.
State of Play Clinton by 2% 193 236 36 (26 R, 9 D, 1 Ind.) 35 (24 D, 9 R, 2 Inds.)
NORTHEAST
Connecticut Clinton by 14% 5 Dan Malloy (D) - OPEN Chris Murphy (D)
Delaware Clinton by 11% 1 Tom Carper (D)
Maine Clinton by 3% 1 1 Paul LePage (R) - OPEN Angus King (Ind.)
Maryland Clinton by 26% 7 1 Larry Hogan (R) Ben Cardin (D)
Massachusetts Clinton by 27% 9 Charles Baker (R) Elizabeth Warren (D)
New Hampshire Clinton by 0.3% 2 Chris Sununu (R)
New Jersey Clinton by 14% 7 5 Robert Menendez (D)
New York Clinton by 22% 17 9 Andrew Cuomo (D) Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
Pennsylvania Trump by 0.7% 6 11 Tom Wolf (D) Bob Casey (D)
Rhode Island Clinton by 16% 2 Gina Raimondo (D) Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
Vermont Clinton by 26% 1 Phil Scott (R) Bernie Sanders (Ind.)
West Virginia Trump by 42% 3 Joe Manchin (D)
58 30
MIDWEST
Illinois Clinton by 17% 11 7 Bruce Rauner (R)
Indiana Trump by 19% 2 7 Joe Donnelly (D)
Iowa Trump by 9% 1 3 Kim Reynolds (R)@
Kansas Trump by 21% 4 Jeff Colyer (R)@
Michigan Trump by 0.2% 4 9 Rick Snyder (R) - OPEN Debbie Stabenow (D)

The Rhodes Cook Letter • April 2018 20

 Seats Up in '18
‘16 Presidential House Seats
Governors Senators
Vote Dem. Rep.
State of Play Clinton by 2% 193 236 36 (26 R, 9 D, 1 Ind.) 35 (24 D, 9 R, 2 Inds.)
MIDWEST Cont.
Amy Klobuchar (D)/
Minnesota Clinton by 2% 5 3 Mark Dayton (D) - OPEN
Tina Smith (D)@
Missouri Trump by 19% 2 6 Claire McCaskill (D)
Nebraska Trump by 25% 3 Pete Ricketts (R) Deb Fischer (R)
North Dakota Trump by 36% 1 Heidi Heitkamp (D)
Ohio Trump by 8% 4 11 John Kasich (R) - OPEN Sherrod Brown (D)
South Dakota Trump by 30% 1 Dennis Daugaard (R) - OPEN
Wisconsin Trump by 0.7% 3 5 Scott Walker (R) Tammy Baldwin (D)
32 60
SOUTH
Alabama Trump by 28% 1 6 Kay Ivey (R)@
Arkansas Trump by 27% 4 Asa Hutchinson (R)
Florida Trump by 1% 11 16 Rick Scott (R) - OPEN Bill Nelson (D)
Georgia Trump by 5% 4 10 Nathan Deal (R) - OPEN
Kentucky Trump by 30% 1 5
Louisiana Trump by 20% 1 5
Roger Wicker (R)/
Mississippi Trump by 18% 1 3
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)@
North Carolina Trump by 4% 3 10
Oklahoma Trump by 36% 4 Mary Fallin (R) - OPEN
South Carolina Trump by 14% 1 6 Henry McMaster (R)@
Tennessee Trump by 26% 2 7 Bill Haslam (R) - OPEN Bob Corker (R) - OPEN
Texas Trump by 9% 11 24 Greg Abbott (R) Ted Cruz (R)
Virginia Clinton by 5% 4 7 Tim Kaine (D)
40 107
WEST
Alaska Trump by 15% 1 Bill Walker (Ind.)
Arizona Trump by 4% 4 5 Doug Ducey (R) Jeff Flake (R) - OPEN
California Clinton by 30% 39 14 Jerry Brown (D) - OPEN Dianne Feinstein (D)
Colorado Clinton by 5% 3 4 John Hickenlooper (D) - OPEN
Hawaii Clinton by 32% 2 David Ige (D) Mazie Hironi (D)
Idaho Trump by 32% 2 C.L. “Butch” Otter (R) - OPEN
Montana Trump by 20% 1 Jon Tester (D)
Nevada Clinton by 2% 3 1 Brian Sandoval (R) - OPEN Dean Heller (R)
New Mexico Clinton by 8% 2 1 Susana Martinez (R) - OPEN Martin Heinrich (D)
Oregon Clinton by 11% 4 1 Kate Brown (D)
Utah Trump by 18% 4 Orrin Hatch (R) - OPEN
Washington Clinton by 16% 6 4 Maria Cantwell (D)
Wyoming Trump by 46% 1 Matt Mead (R) - OPEN John Barrasso (R)
63 39
Sources: The partisan number of House seats in each state is as of April 30, 2018, and reflects six vacancies: a pair of
Democratic ones in Michigan and New York; and four Republican vacancies in Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, and Texas. The
icon “@” indicates that the present officeholder assumed his or her seat after 2016.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • April 2018 21