Is Russia arming the Afghan Taliban?
By Dawood Azami
BBC World Service | 2 April 2018
www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41842285
The US accuses Russia of trying to destabilise Afghan-
istan by supporting the Taliban. Senior US officials have
been saying for months that Moscow is even supplying
the militants with weapons.
Russia and the Taliban, who are historic foes, deny
the charges. They come amid what some observers see
as a "new Cold War" - so how much truth is there to
the US claims?
What is the US alleging?
In a BBC interview in late March, the commander of US
forces in Afghanistan Gen John Nicholson alleged that
Russian weapons were being smuggled across the Tajik
border to the Taliban.
He accused Russia of exaggerating the number of
Islamic State (IS) fighters in Afghanistan "to legitimise
the actions of the Taliban and provide some degree of
support to the Taliban".
"We've had weapons brought to this headquarters
and given to us by Afghan leaders and [they] said, this
was given by the Russians to the Taliban," he said.
Some Afghan police and military officials told the
BBC that the Russian military equipment includes night-
vision goggles, medium and heavy machine guns, and
small arms.
Who agrees?
US officials have accused Moscow of supporting the
Taliban for more than a year. In December 2016 Gen
Nicholson criticised Russia and Iran for establishing
links with the Taliban and "legitimising" the group.
Since then a number of high-ranking US officials,
mainly military, have made similar claims, some sug-
gesting Russia is also arming the Taliban.
But a number of US and Nato officials have been
more cautious.
Testifying at a Senate hearing in May 2017, US
Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt-Gen Vincent R
Stewart said: "I have not seen real physical evidence of
weapons or money being transferred."
US Defense Secretary James Mattis told the House
Armed Services Committee in October 2017 that he
wanted to see more evidence about the level of Rus-
sian support for the Taliban, adding that what he had
seen "doesn't make sense".
Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is on
record saying, in July 2017, "we haven't seen any
proofs, any confirmed information about that kind of
support".
For its part Tajikistan has denied funnelling Russian
weapons to the Taliban, calling Gen Nicholson's claim
"groundless".
What's the view of Afghan officials?
The Afghan authorities have also given contradictory
statements.
A few provincial officials have been explicit in alleg-
ing Moscow's military support for the Taliban. But the
spokesman for Afghanistan's chief executive officer
(CEO) said in May 2017 that there was no evidence.
Last October President Ashraf Ghani publicly
taunted the Taliban for accepting Russian guns.
However, his defence minister said the following
month that such reports were just "rumours" and "we
don't have evidence".
What do Russia and the Taliban say?
Moscow and the Taliban deny the US claims that they
are working together. They separately rejected Gen
Nicholson's comments to the BBC, saying he had no
evidence.
The Russian embassy in Kabul and the foreign
ministry in Moscow dismissed such claims as "baseless"
and "idle gossip".
A Taliban spokesman said they had not "received
military assistance from any country".
Moscow has repeatedly accused the US and Nato
of trying to blame Russia for their "failures" and
worsening security in Afghanistan.
Russian officials and politicians have even implied
that the US and Nato support IS in Afghanistan; a
charge the US vehemently denies and most observers
find incredible.
Do Russia and the Taliban acknowledge links?
Russia denies materially supporting the insurgents but
acknowledges "contacts" with the Taliban.
According to some Taliban sources, a communica-
tion channel between Moscow and the Taliban was
established almost a decade ago, following the Taliban's
removal from power by the US in 2001.
But ties between Moscow and the Taliban have
improved significantly over the past three years, espe-
cially since the establishment of the so-called "IS Kho-
rasan" group in Afghanistan in January 2015.
Taliban sources confirm their representatives have
met Russian officials inside Russia and "other" countries
several times.
 As part of these new "links", some Taliban expect-
ed sophisticated weapons from Russia that could dra-
matically turn the Afghan war in their favour - anti-air-
craft guns and missiles that could challenge US air
supremacy; similar to the surface-to-air Stinger missile
the US provided to the Afghan resistance fighters
during the Soviet-Afghan war in the 1980s.
So far this remains wishful thinking on the part of
the Taliban mainly for two reasons - such weapons
could be easily traced back to the source and US-Rus-
sia relations are not that bad to justify such a drastic
measure.
What do the Taliban gain from Russia?
For the Taliban, moral and political support by a major
regional power is more important than the light wea-
pons they say are widely available in Afghanistan and
can be bought on the black market in the wider region.
Taliban diplomatic outreach also extends to build-
ing relations with China and Iran.
This is a morale-booster and has strengthened
Taliban conviction in the "legitimacy" of their struggle
to oust US-led forces from Afghanistan.
The fact that Russia and Iran are accused of sup-
porting the Taliban challenges the narrative that the
militants are solely dependent on Pakistan.
From enemies to frenemies?
Softening its approach towards the Afghan Taliban is a
dramatic and somehow unexpected shift for Russia.
Almost all founding members of the Taliban move-
ment were part of the mujahideen, which fought against
the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s. Dur-
ing the factional war that followed the Soviet pullout,
Russia provided financial and military support to groups
opposed to the Taliban.
But after the US invasion of Afghanistan following
the 9/11 attacks in the US, the Taliban apparently saw
an opportunity to work with Russia.
Russia now no longer sees the Taliban as a pressing
security threat. Instead, policymakers in Moscow view
the group as a reality in Afghanistan which cannot be
ignored.
In March 2017, President Putin's special envoy for
Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, even said the Taliban's
demand for the withdrawal of foreign troops from
Afghanistan was "justified" and criticised the long-term
presence of US and Nato forces in the country.
What does Russia gain?
There are three major reasons for Russia-Taliban links.
Firstly, Russian officials say these contacts are
aimed at ensuring the security of Russian citizens and
political offices in Afghanistan, especially in areas where
the resurgent Taliban have expanded their territorial
control in recent years.
At least two Russians were captured by the Afghan
Taliban on two separate occasions, in 2013 and 2016,
when their helicopters crashed in Taliban-controlled
areas. Both were released after lengthy negotiations.
Secondly, the emergence of IS in Afghanistan
prompted fears in Moscow that the group may expand
into Central Asia and Russia.
The Afghan Taliban have been fighting against IS in
Afghanistan and repeatedly assured neighbouring count-
ries, that unlike IS, their armed struggle is limited to
Afghanistan. In December 2015, the Russian president's
special representative to Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov,
declared that "the Taliban interest objectively coincides
with ours" in the fight against IS.
Russia has also suggested the possibility of staging a
Syrian-style intervention in Afghanistan if IS gained
strength and became a "serious threat" to the stability
of Central Asian countries on the pretext of protecting
its "backyard".
However, US officials say Moscow uses the IS
presence as an excuse to justify its meddling in Afghan-
istan and to further grow its military influence in Cen-
tral Asia.
Thirdly, Russian officials insist the Afghan conflict
needs a political, not a military, solution. They have
grown increasingly frustrated by and suspicious of the
US strategy that has not so far stabilised Afghanistan
after 16 years of fighting.
Moscow says the contacts are intended to encour-
age the Taliban to enter peace talks.
What's the effect on the Afghan conflict?
A resurgent Russia under President Putin has been
pushing for influence in Afghanistan, in moves seen as
part of an effort to ensure a seat for Moscow at the
top table in any future arrangement in the country.
This comes at a time when US-Russian relations
are at a low point and the geopolitical situation is
changing fast.
Moscow's increasingly assertive stance is linked to
US-Russian tensions in other parts of the world, espe-
cially Ukraine and Syria.
By establishing links with the Taliban, Moscow
seems to be aiming to pressurise and even undermine
the US and Nato.
Meanwhile, as the rift between Washington and
Islamabad grows, Russia and Pakistan are building diplo-
matic and military relations after decades of hostility.
Moscow's reappearance in Afghan affairs is largely
designed to irritate the Americans.
The persistent accusations traded by the former
Cold War powers has to be seen in the context of a
wider blame game. Their rivalry is complicating the
conflict in Afghanistan, where the number of actors is
increasing.
This has renewed fears of a "new Great Game",
with Afghanistan once more a battlefield for regional
and international players. A way out of the decades-
long quagmire appears as far off as ever.