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Colliers International Romania
Research & Forecast Report
Soft landing path ahead

Accelerating success.
1
Content

TOP 10 Economic Industrial Retail


Predictions 2018 Overview Market Market

p. p. p. p.
04 06 10 14

Office Green Investment


Market Co-working Buildings Market

p. p. p. p.
18 22 24 26

Land Hotel New tax provisions New rules for commissioning


Market Market in the Real Estate of construction works. Novelties
Industry and practical difficulties.
p. p. p. p.
28 32 34 36

2 Colliers International Romania


Research & Forecast Report | 2018
Dear friends and partners,

Ilinca Paun Those who don’t change their mind, never change Your real estate project must be multilocation, virtual
anything. It is Sir Winston Churchill who made this accessible, multifunction and highly accessorized by
Member of the Board
phrase famous in his impossible situation as the comfortable services offering memorable experiences.
Colliers International
Kingdom’s Prime Minister of deciding between peace
ilinca.paun@colliers.com And we are here to help you.
talks with Hitler or going ahead risking many hundreds
of thousands of lives of the British army. Luckily, we are
We will invest more in the professional and personal
in a safer place and our market situation is not as bad as
education of our people and we will continue to work
Europe’s war zone in 1940.
on our promise to be the most loved and respected
The lesson to learn from is that of flexibility and leaving consultancy company on the market. Some of the best
room for doubt. We get wise because we have doubts. senior experts joined our core teams in 2017, and new
Don’t make assumptions and instead have a good services were launched or scaled up. We now have a
command of deep and broad information. Learn before great balance in terms of business lines and resources
Colliers International is a leader in
thinking you know. Because the mind that produces a spread and our top priority is to consolidate our
global real estate services, defined achievement.
problem cannot be the mind that solves that problem, too.
by our spirit of enterprise. Through
a culture of service excellence and Today you wonder what soft landing means, how hard Colliers International Romania has had its best year since
is ‘soft’, and how you can make your investments strong 2009, with a business revenue growth of 50% in 2017,
collaboration, we integrate the compared with the previous year. The Office leasing,
enough to resist the wind of change. While many say
resources of real estate specialists Industrial leasing and Investment Sales services brought
you should follow your heart and do what you do best
worldwide to accelerate the success of and things will be all right, I say this is exactly what you a sustainable revenue growth aligned with our focus.
our partners. We represent property should be doubtful about.
I do hope our research papers will make your lives as
investors, developers and occupiers in investors and developers in real estate easier and our
It is best to follow your reasoning systems and have a
local and global markets. Our expertise strict reality check process. Be your worse critic and advice will make your returns higher, while keeping a
spans all property sectors–office, let others appreciate you, if. Don’t build what you build focus on creating a better and happier way of living and
industrial, retail, residential, rural & best, the same product, but create diversified, multi-use working for people.
agribusiness, healthcare & retirement spaces instead and enhance technology like never before.
I wish you a successful 2018,
living, hotels & leisure. A project takes 2.5 to 3 years to build and digitalization
and artificial intelligence might evolve exponentially and Ilinca Paun – Member of the Board
surprise you. Just as an example, is your project equipped
for self-driving cars? Real estate is an old school type of
business and it needs a real revolution. Online retail and
‘work from home’ policies are demonstrating that the
old criteria “location, location, location” does not work
anymore. It is much more complex now.

3
TOP 10
1
Romanian economy to
slow down, still outperform
most EU countries
After 2017’s stellar GDP expansion of over 7%, Romania
was the fastest growing country in the European
Union. It was mostly a private consumption story, though
3
Migration (internal and
external) becoming ever
more relevant
Internal migration patterns are already suggesting a
growing preference for Romania’s major “magnet cities”
– Cluj-Napoca, Timisoara and Iasi – at the expense of
exports held up quite well amid an unexpectedly robust Bucharest, with surveys further supporting this. With both

Predictions
Eurozone economy. Barring “black swan”-type risks, GDP labour and living costs lower outside the capital, companies
growth is set to slow down to a more sustainable level might be rather inclined to expand/establish offices outside
in 2018 (around 5%), given the limited room for fresh Bucharest; such patterns would also boost other segments

2018
fiscal stimulus and expected monetary policy tightening. (especially retail). A key development we will be watching
Romania will remain among the top performing European out for is if Romanians working in other countries are
economies. Consequently, the outlook for office, retail starting to return home in larger numbers.
and industrial spaces remains quite rosy.

the show
2
Investment scene to steal

After 2017’s investment volumes of just under EUR 1bn,


the potential pipeline for the office segment alone could be
larger than this level. Though some deals could be delayed
for next year (as we have seen in 2017 as well), we expect
4
Industrial segment to
continue delivering very
strong results
Despite 2017’s record deliveries of storage spaces
(around half a million sqm), the vacancy rate remained
at an all-time low of close to 5% nationwide and 2%
near Bucharest. We view the strong tenant demand as
to see overall market turnover move well north of EUR fundamentally sound given the boost in e-commerce
1bn, with both currently active players and new entrants and room to catch up CEE peers. Vacancy could climb a
to drive up demand. Among the arguments supporting the bit amid potentially more speculative developments and
real estate investment scene are: attractive yield spreads some larger tenants moving in self-developed facilities.
versus neighbouring CEE peers, good macro performance Meanwhile, big land banks ensure that deliveries could
and strong appetite from banks to back deals (other continue to be elevated in 2018 (likely higher than
funding alternatives also available). 2017’s pace).

4 Colliers International Romania


Research & Forecast Report | 2018
5
Infrastructure constraints
to remain in place

After 2017 saw the delivery of 24km of highways


nationwide, nearly four times below the year-start estimate
from the government, pundits are warning 2018 could be
7
Labour market becoming
quite stretched

The rate of unfilled job openings has been hovering around


post-crisis highs, while unemployment is at record lows.
Furthermore, central bank data suggest that the supply-
9
Online retail, still no
immediate threat for brick
and mortar schemes
Shopping centres are still set to deliver solid results for
tenants as Romanians have a higher predisposition than
regional peers to actually look at a certain product before
similar. For this year, the minister is promising at least demand mismatch on the labour market has been on purchasing it. Still, in order to improve footfall, malls will
156 km. Given the limited fiscal room in the state budget the rise, while new bachelor graduates with a technical need to cement their status as actual destinations to
and poor track record of EU funds absorption, we do not background are proving too few in comparison with spend one’s free time. This means more space for the
expect to see a material acceleration in infrastructure employers’ requirements. This extremely competitive food court and other services like cinemas or children’s
developments. That said, any positive surprises could labour market could limit the companies’ ability to playgrounds (so entertainment spaces of at least 20-25%
bring a flurry of deals/interest. expand both in Bucharest and in other parts of the country of total GLA). A smaller per capita retail stock than in
(thereby impairing office market activity – leasing and neighbouring CEE countries could also act as a buffer for
new deliveries), though a potential buffer could come from brick and mortar schemes versus online sales. All in all, a

6 8 10
external migrants returning to their native country. “retail apocalypse” looks like a minimal risk for Romania.

Bucharest office market to Balanced Bucharest retail Residential segment to


focus on new hotspots scene, ample room for remain the all-star driver
smaller schemes nationwide for land demand
Deliveries look set to accelerate quite a bit in 2018 after For now, no new large projects have been announced for Given the higher wages and elevated intentions to
disappointing in 2017. Amid an expected slowdown in Bucharest in the upcoming years, just some extensions. purchase homes, residential projects are still likely to
terms of employment growth, vacancy is likely to move That said, the consumption-driven growth has improved remain the key drivers for land, though at the time of
slightly higher. The new/developing hotspots (Centre West, household spending appetite throughout the country, so writing, it is still too early to judge the impact of the start
Piata Presei/Expozitiei) can likely be digested organically investments will continue to focus on improving the of a new monetary policy tightening cycle. As we have
to a large extent, though developers are becoming much nation-wide coverage of modern retail, including via seen in the past, new office projects will likely draw
more cautious, with the pipeline for 2018 already one third medium to smaller schemes in the less populated cities demand for residential projects in neighbouring areas.
lower than we would have thought 2-3 quarters ago. (below 100,000-150,000 inhabitants). Otherwise, the retail Since 2018 is likely to see a large number of housing units
market remains highly competitive, as the very low vacancy reach the market, players might turn more cautious and
suggests (in single digits for big shopping centres). new developments could focus on smaller projects, albeit
in prime locations when possible.

5
Economic overview
This suggests that Romania might manage to grow its way
 verheating fears
O
Landing path ahead, out of trouble to a certain extent. The external backdrop

gearing for a soft landing


remains largely supportive, with German business morale exaggerated, higher inflation
close to all-time highs early 2018 after Eurozone GDP
growth hit a 10 year high of 2.5% in 2017, with 2018 also
to help out for now
seen above 2%. Overall, we expect the good export demand, With Romania seeing such robust activity data, it is
 DP growth over 7% -
G solid rise in disposable income (both past and expected only normal to question whether or not the economy is
for 2018) and potential loan growth to keep economic overheating. One way to look at things is to keep in mind
the CEE tiger is back activity expanding at a nice pace. The material risks to our that current consumption looks much more sustainable,
Defying cooldown expectations and surpassing even the bullish growth forecast for 2018 (5.2% versus 4.1% market as it is based more on wages and less on consumer loans
most optimistic forecasts from the start of last year, the consensus as per Bloomberg surveys) derive from a erosion compared to 2007. The monthly average of consumer
Romanian economy likely expanded by over 7% in 2017. of companies’ morale or consumer spending due to elevated loans (adjusted to inflation changes) for 2017 was little
This was by far the best growth rate in the EU. It was political noise and uncertainties related to fiscal policy. over half of the level seen in 2007/2008. Furthermore,
mostly a consumption story, while supply side numbers
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018F
showed a balanced picture, as a vibrant services segment
was enhanced by quite good results from manufacturing GDP growth (%) 0.6 3.5 3.1 4.0 4.8 7.2 5.2
and agriculture; the latter was especially robust and
GDP per capita (EUR) 6,700 7,200 7,500 8,100 8,600 9,500 10,300
suggests Romania might shake off previous historic
patterns with regards to agricultural results (a good year Private consumption (%) 2.1 0.7 4.7 5.9 7.4 9.1 6.6
followed by a bad one). Right off the bat, there are a couple Industrial output (%) 0.1 3.6 7.4 7.0 -3.2 8.0 7.1
of aspects worth noting: the exceptional performance was
achieved in spite of an unchanged budget deficit compared Unemployment rate (%, year end) 6.8 7.0 6.6 6.6 5.5 4.6 4.3
to 2016 – no new stimulus via lower taxes, though the Current account balance (%/GDP) -4.8 -1.1 -0.7 -1.2 -2.1 -3.4 -4.0
fiscal profile was different. Secondly, despite the economy
Net FDI (%/GDP) 1.6 1.9 1.6 2.2 2.7 2.9 3.2
expanding well above its so-called sustainable growth rate
(the potential GDP growth rate is estimated at around 4%), Budget balance (%/GDP) -3.7 -2.1 -1.4 -0.8 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0
the external imbalances have not ballooned to dangerous Inflation rate (%, year end) 5.0 1.6 0.8 -0.9 -0.5 3.3 3.6
levels indicative of an overheated economy; yes, the
current account deficit (net hard currency outflows from ROBOR 3M (%, year end) 6.1 2.4 1.7 1.0 0.9 2.1 2.8
the economy) likely swelled past -3% of GDP, but this is a EUR/RON (average) 4.46 4.42 4.44 4.45 4.49 4.57 4.65
far-cry from the nearly -14% of GDP level seen in 2007.
Data Source: INSSE, Eurostat, Colliers International

6 Colliers International Romania


Research & Forecast Report | 2018
macro fundamentals are also looking well better than a in state wages) alongside a tightening labour market (tilting Productivity and labour costs as
decade ago. As things stand now, we believe the economy the balance in favour of employees) have underpinned the % of Germany’s
is poised for a soft landing, with several factors set to strong wage growth. The key question here is whether
45
depress household disposable income towards more or not wages turn out to be sustainable in the longer run.
40
“normal” levels: i) accelerating inflation (headline rate While the current situation is not ideal – it would have been 35
could move towards 5% in the first semester, with state better to see wage growth driven more by job creation 30
policy changes weighing a lot); ii) expected monetary policy rather than state policies – we believe that companies can 25
20
tightening; iii) weaker RON to pressure import goods’ digest the increase. This is due to the fact that Romania 15
prices and those of goods/services denominated in hard has a higher gap between productivity and labour costs 10
currency; iv) slowdown in nominal wage expansion as state than most neighbouring peers. We also want to point out 5
0
policies turn less generous (towards 10% from 14% last a chart we feature in our retail section, which shows that Bulgaria Czech Hungary Poland Romania Slovakia
Republic
year). Furthermore, empirical evidence like surveys that today’s average wage can purchase over 70% more goods
suggest a higher appetence for saving make us believe that and services than 2007’s average, so people are buying
Labour costs (business economy) GDP/capita
consumers may have acquired some improved measure much more with their own money, as they can afford it.
of foresight this time around and may have not been as A glass half-empty approach would focus on the swelling
Data Source: Eurostat, Colliers International
reckless in their spending as a decade earlier. In the long imports weighing much more on GDP growth and on the
run, there are some reasons to maintain a cautiously fact that capex has been quite subdued, expanding by 3.4%
optimistic approach to Romania relative to CEE peers. in 1Q-3Q 2017. IT&C, BPO/SSC
While the economic cycle does seem in a mid-to-late-ish
phase, there might still be some room to run if, for example, growth rate to cool down
investments start picking up (including absorption of EU As expected, private services were the main driver on
funds, which started accelerating end-2017) or if structural the supply side, though 2017 saw a much more balanced
reforms are adopted, thereby unlocking untapped potential. Unemployment rate by education level picture. Overall, in the first three quarters of 2017, IT
For Romania, even fairly simple structural changes like (%, 4Q rolling average) and BPO/SSC added around 1.3ppt to Romania’s 7%
building highways would go a very long way and probably GDP growth rate (the full year figures will be available in
lead to a sharp and sustainable pick-up in activity. 9 March). In the last decade, Romania has been one of the
8
7 top beneficiaries of relocations from other EU countries
 rivate consumption
P 6
5
in IT&C, for instance. Still, employment growth for higher
value-added services is likely to be constrained in the
underpinned by robust wages 4
3 upcoming quarters by the lack of employees. For instance,
2 the ratio of unfilled job openings for IT&C is considerably
At the time of writing, we lacked the numbers for 4Q 1
higher now than it was a decade ago, highlighting that
2017, but in 1Q-3Q 2017 period, private consumption 0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 employers are finding it increasingly difficult to find the
was up by 9.5% while the overall level is, in real terms,
right qualifications. Moreover, the jobless rate for people
some 21% higher than the pre-crisis peak, reached in 3Q Primary Secondary Tertiary
with tertiary education stands close to all-time lows,
2008. The double-digit wage growth (around 14%) was
around 2%, while the majority of jobseekers are those
the main reason behind the spike in household spending. Data Source: Eurostat
with low to medium qualifications. This mismatch between
Government policies (minimum wage hikes and increases
supply and demand on the labour market is bound to yield
a few of unfavourable effects:

7
• slow down the job creation pace, a negative for the
office segment;
Favourable outlook for 2% by early 2018 and might close in on 3% by year-end).
Of course, a sharper economic slowdown than we pencil
• pressure employers to be more generous with wage manufacturing in might mean lower inflationary pressures and limit the
hikes in order to keep attrition rates at tolerable levels; need for key rate hikes, but this is not our main scenario.
External demand has helped Romanian factories increase
• a consequence of the previous point: erode one of Meanwhile, the consumers’ solid spending appetite has
their output significantly last year (c.9%), overperforming
Romania’s major competitive advantages: its labour cost swelled imports and dented Romania’s external balances,
greatly compared to initial estimates. The auto segment
competitiveness. but it is important to note from the start that the country
remained a major driver, with exports growing by close
Thankfully, besides the generous “competitiveness is in much better shape than a decade ago. Still, the RON
to 8% compared to 2016’s record level. As over 20% of
reserve” we mentioned earlier, Romania also boasts a size might continue to underperform regional peers this year due
Romania’s total exports head to Germany, a closer look at
advantage relative to most peers and has seen the second to several factors:
Europe’s largest economy could shed some light about the
fastest labour productivity rise in the EU in the last decade, domestic manufacturing segment. The good news is that • the current account gap looks set to widen further
after Ireland. The caveat here is that we cannot discount towards -4% of GDP in 2018;
optimism regarding Germany’s economy will continue to
for a factor that could materially change the status quo: spill over as the widely followed Ifo Business Climate Index • higher central bank flexibility towards RON weakness –
the potential return of Romanian migrants to their native is hovering around a record high. Still, we cannot be overly also helping out in keeping inflation in check;
country. Fast rising wages have improved domestic living confident regarding manufacturing as, on an aggregate • the political backdrop is expected to remain noisy;
standards quite significantly over the last years, especially level, Romania still has a lot of slack, as industrial capacity • elevated policy uncertainty with potential negative
for those with higher qualifications, so people with utilization is around 78%, some 5 percentage points below surprises if the fiscal gap cannot be kept within the -3%
university degrees might start thinking about returning the 2007-2008 average; as such, an investment boom is not of GDP level.
to their native country provided that the political situation around the corner. Another negative news, in our view, is
returns to normal. the fact that infrastructure developments nationwide might  hanging fortunes for
C
still continue to disappoint in 2018, as history has shown
A balanced picture: manufacturing, that governments in Romania tend to sacrifice capex when Romania’s regional cities
confronted with a tight budget. And indeed, this year’s state With just over a quarter of the country’s GDP generated by
agriculture and tertiary sector all expanding budget has quite limited space and the Fiscal Council has Bucharest, the distribution of Romania’s economic results
warned risks for fiscal slippages. places it in the middle-ground between Hungary (whose
GDP breakdown by sector, 2017 estimate capital makes up almost half of the country’s output) and
Financial markets gearing Poland (with Warsaw’s GDP share at below 20% of total).
0.5 We believe that over the medium term, Romania will move
2.2
up for the higher inflation towards the Polish model rather than Hungary’s, meaning
1.2 we expect a material overperformance of the major regional
Now that the tax cuts that depressed consumer prices
Retail Sales, Logistics
are behind us and private consumption has had a banner cities (Cluj-Napoca, Timisoara, Iasi, Brasov). We believe this to
Agriculture
year, inflation has returned with a vengeance, ending 2017 be the case as Bucharest has become overcrowded by many
Manufacturing
IT&C, BPO/SSC at 3.3%. As such, the central bank has started last year a standards and this is starting to weigh on quality of life: for
Other Sectors
new tightening cycle, at first by closing the gap between instance, it has one of the most congested traffic in Europe,
money market rates and the key rate, then by hiking the according to TomTom, while, at the same time, it is in the top
1.6 1.7
policy rate at the start of 2018 for the first time in a decade. 10 most polluted major cities in the EU. And as some studies
Given the inflation outlook, this is just the start and relevant have shown, millennials – probably the most important age
Data Source: INSSE, Colliers International money market rates are likely to climb further (relevant 3M group for employers – tend to be less materialistic, prioritizing
ROBOR moved from a low of 0.7% in September 2017 to experiences over “stuff”. This thesis is validated by changes
in both migration patterns and intentions.

8 Colliers International Romania


Research & Forecast Report | 2018
We would normally expect this shift towards a more has nearly halved versus pre-crisis highs, to just over What is even more impressive is that when asked “which
balanced regional growth pattern to happen both gradually 11,000 persons in 2016, whereas the number of people city, different than the one you live in now, would you
and without negative economic consequences for moving to Timis, Cluj and Iasi counties has accelerated most like to live in”, Cluj-Napoca actually came first in the
Bucharest – we do not see a contraction of economic steadily, to over 19,000 persons in 2016. While empirical answers, with a share of 15.3%, followed by Bucharest
activity due to the new reality, rather a much faster growth evidence might suggest that migration numbers are actually with 14.5%. Timisoara (11.9%) and Brasov (11.5%) were
rate for Romania’s “magnetic cities”. Since we expect the a bit higher, we would emphasize the change in dynamics. fairly close in migration intentions, while Sibiu (5.2%) and
majority of people looking to change their home to be of Iasi (4.3%) were behind by a wider margin. That said, Iasi
A World Bank report published last year found that among
prime working age and with good job prospects (as they is a special case as it already benefits from a big pool of
Romanians, a vast majority chose “quality of life” as a main
expect to afford the moving costs), this will mean mostly external migrants from neighbouring Republic of Moldova.
point when looking at a potential new home, with the “job
an acceleration of the services segment, offering a good To put things into perspective, the five regional cities with
situation” the second on the list. Gone are the days when
outlook for almost all real estate segments. Looking at hard the best chances to attract migrants have a much smaller
the capital would draw in scores of Romanians from other
data, the net positive flow of people settling in Bucharest population in total than Bucharest, but they might manage
parts of the country solely on higher wages.
to attract over three times more migrants as Bucharest over
Internal migration survey (%) the medium term. Furthermore, the people placing these
towns on their number one spot for a potential home change
National survey: which city, is nearly five times larger than their current population.
different than the one you live in With the World Bank expecting some 1.7 million persons to
now, would you like to live in? move from one city to another within the next five years,
Current residents living in 15.32%/2.34% a validation of these internal migration patterns would
4.3%/2.06%
functional urban area, definitely spice things up for these major regional hubs
share in national population
(especially Cluj-Napoca, Timisoara, Iasi and Brasov). To
Iasi summarize, out of 100 people due to move in a different city
in the next years, 48 will chose Cluj-Napoca, Iasi, Timisoara,
11.88%/2.52% Cluj-Napoca Brasov, Sibiu and just 14 Bucharest.
11.53%/2.27%
Besides the migration patterns, there are other arguments
5.16%/1.34% supporting our view. For instance, given that labour
costs and other operational costs (such as office rents or
local taxes) can be materially lower outside Bucharest,
Timisoara Sibiu
Brasov 14.46%/13.43% we believe companies will want to embrace the change
wholeheartedly. On the other hand, out of Romania’s over
10,000 IT&C graduates per year, Bucharest generates
almost 2,700, whereas Timisoara, Cluj-Napoca, Iasi and
Brasov stand at 5,900 together; another aspect worth
highlighting here is that only a minority of these are
BUCHAREST willing to relocate for a job, according to local recruitment
company Brainspotting. As talent seems less willing to
move nowadays than, say, a decade ago, companies will
surely have to adapt to this new reality.
Data Source: World Bank, Colliers International

9
Industrial Market

Supply Turning to the nationwide developments, we note that


Timisoara, Cluj-Napoca, Pitesti, Oradea, Sibiu, Brasov,
A notable investment event last year was the purchase
of Logicor by CIC, China’s sovereign investment fund, for
The Romanian industrial market has had a banner year Turda, Bacau are also acting as current areas of interest over EUR 12bn in a transnational deal. This also means the
and it is only about to get better. Around half a million for developers and companies seeking warehouse spaces. Chinese company now owns Logicor’s several properties
sqm in new modern warehouse spaces were delivered Bucharest and its surrounding areas account for close to in Romania.
last year, an acceleration of over 40% versus 2016, taking half of the total stock (1.7 million sqm). Fresh developments continue to be constrained by a poor
the grand total to 3.5 million sqm nationwide. Despite
Due to a lack of readily available information, our estimates infrastructure and, in certain areas (especially in the
the record-pace of deliveries, vacancy remained quite
of modern stock cannot fully take into account logistic/ western part of the country and near Bucharest), by an
subdued (below 5% nationwide and under 2% in the
warehouse centres developed by companies for their own ever lower workforce supply. Turning to the first factor,
Bucharest area). Overall, this is very much a landlord
use, though these make up for a significant part of the
market, though as developers have acquired good land Vacancy rate and industrial stock
market. FMCG companies used around 700,000 sqm in
banks, things could start changing as soon as end-2018,
storage spaces, owning around 400,000 sqm and leasing in Bucharest
in our opinion.
the rest. A small part of the spaces that they own are sub- 15.4% 15.3%
The goldilocks market for developers/landlords is caused leased, but these might grow in the future, making them 14.5%
13.7%
by several factors, in our view: i) increased nation-wide even more a direct competitor of “traditional” operators. 2,100,000
coverage of brick-and-mortar retail schemes requiring It is also important to note that some large tenants might
improved logistics spaces; ii) e-commerce growing seek to build their own warehouse spaces in 2018 due 10.2%
1,700,000*

sharply; iii) companies seeking a better regional coverage to an attractive cost/benefits ratio (for instance, Dante
in CEE; iv) ongoing favourable momentum for the International, the company operating the largest online 1,150,000
manufacturing segment. store in Romania - eMAG.ro - is developing near Bucharest 910,000 920,000 940,000 940,000 940,000 940,000
a 120,000 sqm facility to be opened around mid-2018). 5.0% 5.0%
Almost two thirds of last year’s deliveries were in the
Bucharest outskirts; CTP and WDP were the most The trend in Romania among big companies is to buy/
2.0% 2.0%
active developers, each adding around 200,000 sqm to develop and hold, with CTP and WDP being the most
their portfolio. These developers are also the biggest in significant examples of this. Other large players have indeed
Romania, with CTP heading last year towards 800,000 changed owners over the last years, but these were part of 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018F
sqm in storage spaces, WDP – around 400,000 sqm, transnational deals.
while the third place belonged to P3 – with around Stock (sqm) Vacancy rate (%)

370,000 sqm concentrated in a single park. * 2017 stock figure updated to include around 200,000 sqm in storage
spaces previously unnacounted for in Bucharest

Data Source: Colliers International

10 Colliers International Romania


Research & Forecast Report | 2018
just 45 km of highways were delivered between 2015 leasing deals between landlords and tenants, of which we sqm and 35,000 sqm respectively) in different locations
and 2017 (compared to 250 km promised by authorities) believe there are quite a few. in the western part of Bucharest. The third place belongs
and given the strained public-sector budget, no material Underpinning the very robust market is net take-up to a 31,000 sqm deal by NOD (a distributor of electro-IT
changes should be expected in 2018 at least. Besides the corresponding to over 85% of all leasing deals, to which products), also in the outskirts of Bucharest.
substandard highway network, the low labour force mobility we would need to add direct deals between landlords and
for blue collar workers (Romanians have one of the highest
home ownership ratios in the EU) also suggests that areas
tenants. Rents
with a higher potential number of employees, like the north- From a sectorial perspective, logistics remains the largest Despite the ultra-low vacancy rates, headline rents for
eastern part of the country, remain untapped. A highway source of demand, having a share of 47% of all leasing class A warehouses have remained roughly unchanged
bridging either the southern or eastern part of the country transactions; it is followed by the retail segment, which for most of last year, around 4 euro/sqm nationwide.
to Transylvania is still not being built, though completing it amounted to nearly 17% of all deals, and automotive Still, it is noteworthy that while the headline for modern
would unlock huge potential. – 9%. It is important to note that the importance of warehouse spaces in prime locations (north, western
e-commerce is likely much higher that the c.6% of leasing Bucharest) previously started from 3.8 euro/sqm, this has
transactions, as some operators likely turn to third party ticked up to 4.1 euro/sqm in 4Q 2017. As the supply had
Demand logistics/distributors. Plus a lot of retailers pursue a mixed good land banks and could quickly adapt, price swings are
approach to “traditional” and online sales. unlikely to be material if current conditions hold. Besides
Out of the nearly half a million sqm in industrial leasing
In this context, with vacancies at ultra-low levels (below the developer market that could push for higher rents,
transactions recorded last year (almost 40% above 2016’s
5% nationally), a large part of the demand is covered via larger operational costs (labour and, potentially, taxation)
level), just over half were in the Bucharest area (around
built-to-suit schemes, with some companies even resorting alongside increases in land prices could also exert some
52%), followed at a significant distance by Timisoara
to building warehouses themselves. upward pressures on rents. In fact, the 5 to 10% increase
(14.6%) and Pitesti (12.4%). We want to underscore that
in construction costs over the last year has yet to make its
due to the opaque nature of the market and given the The biggest leasing deals were two transactions by the
way into the rents, so this could change this year.
current low vacancy, we cannot fully account for all direct Danish transport and logistics company DSV (55,000

Take-up by location in 2017 (%) Take-up by sector in 2017 (%)


Forecast
3.8%
6.5% 52.0% 4% 4% We expect the leasing market to accelerate in 2018, but an
5% 47% increasing part of this could be the result of relocations.
4.1%
Bucharest 6% Logistics As such, we forecast vacancy to move a bit higher in 2018,
6.6% Timisoara Retail especially as the developers’ plans point to a potential
Pitesti Automotive
8% acceleration of new deliveries compared to 2017’s record-
Roman Manufacturing
Oradea (without auto) setting pace. In this context, it is worth pointing out that
12.4% Cluj-Napoca E-commerce major players also have adequate land banks to cover such
Other 9% Distribution plans and more might seek to develop speculative logistic
FMCG
14.6% spaces amid current market conditions.
17% Other
Looking at the major players, CTP wants to build close to
250,000 sqm near Bucharest alone. WDP wants to more
than double its portfolio by 2020, after just having acquired
Data Source: Colliers International Data Source: Colliers International

11
Modern storage spaces
in Romania (sqm, 2017) 3,500,000 UKRAINE
Bucharest 1,700,000
Timisoara 370,000 Satu Mare Botosani
Ploiesti 280,000 Baia Mare Suceava

Cluj-Napoca 213,000 Bors


HUNGARY Salaj
Brasov 170,000 Oradea Bistrita Iasi
MOLDOVA
Piatra Neamt
Arad 90,000 2017 Cluj-Napoca A8
Targu Mures
M43 Vaslui
A11 Miercurea Bacau
2017, 2018 A10 2017 Ciuc
in 2017 a 44 hectare plot north-west of Bucharest. Arad
Nadlac A3
P3 wants to add more than 100,000 sqm to its park Alba Iulia
near Bucharest in the next two years while also
2017 Sfantu
Gheorghe UKRAINE
looking at other new parks in the central and western Timisoara Deva
Sibiu Brasov
areas of the country. Focsani Galati
A6
Consequently, we believe we will witness an A1 Buzau
Resita Braila Tulcea
acceleration in terms of new deliveries, with our call Targu Jiu
of 700,000 sqm nationwide (risks seem skewed Ramnicu Ploiesti
Drobeta Valcea
towards a higher number). Turnu Severin Pitesti Targoviste
2017
Slobozia
Demand is likely to come mostly from 3PL, though A2 A4
a closer look at the economy would suggest Slatina Calarasi BLACK SEA
e-commerce and FMCG will be at the heart of this. SERBIA Craiova
BUCURESTI
Constanta
Alexandria Giurgiu Port
While no major infrastructure developments are
anticipated, Bucharest is likely to remain at the
Legend
forefront of deliveries in 2018, though we note BULGARIA
an increased appetite for the central and western Low stock
parts of the country that can ensure swift access to Medium stock
neighbouring Hungary’s highways. If our outlook is High stock
proven wrong, the prospect of material improvements
in the rail/road infrastructure networks on the north- Existing highway
Under construction highway
south or east-west axes could unlock significant
Planned highway
untapped economic potential in certain parts of
the country, which would also generate a boom in A6 (Bucharest-Alexandria-Craiova-Calafat), A11 (Arad-Oradea) -
storage/production facilities. routes to be determined

12 Colliers International Romania


Research & Forecast Report | 2018
13
Retail Market

Supply Pascani Commercial Centre and B1 Retail Park in Bistrita


– Mitiska REIM, each with a total GLA of 10,000 sqm
It is also notable that developers have been increasingly
looking at regional cities and even smaller towns, including
Little over 100,000 sqm in new modern retail spaces were or a little below this level). Extensions for two of the those with a population below 100,000 (like Bistrita or
delivered in 2017 (versus around 240,000 sqm in the Bucharest’s most representative schemes – AFI Cotroceni Pascani, as mentioned above) amid elevated spending
previous year), making this one of the poorest years in the and Sun Plaza – were completed in 2017. appetite in all parts of the country. This is a trend we see
post-crisis period. Nevertheless, this was in line with our extending over the medium term.
expectations. No big new projects were delivered.
Bucharest saw just a couple of extensions, which
Deliveries of new retail spaces by
amounted to less than 20% of the total new GLA (versus city population (sqm) Demand
more than 40% in 2016’s total deliveries of 240,000 sqm).
800,000 The cocktail of loose fiscal policy, stimulative monetary
As such, Bucharest has been seeing a period of relative
policy (for most of 2017) and various state measures
equilibrium between supply and demand, a favourable 700,000
aimed at boosting wages have led to very robust private
moment for the large schemes delivered in 2016 to gain 600,000
consumption, pushing GDP growth in excess of 7% in 2017.
traction and settle in the domestic retail scene. That 500,000
In fact, consumer sentiment (as measured by European
said, Bucharest still features a considerably smaller per 400,000
Commission surveys) reached an all-time high early 2017,
capita retail stock than Warsaw and Prague (though it is 300,000
while purchase intentions for bigger ticket items also
comparable to Budapest’s), so we believe there might be 200,000
moved north by quite a significant margin. In fact, looking
room for Bucharest to absorb some new large schemes 100,000
at consumer price adjusted wages, we found out that the
over the medium term. 0
average net wage from a decade ago would purchase just
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018
With the exception of the larger shopping centre in around 1,400 RON of goods and services versus 2,500
Ramnicu Valcea Mall (28,000 sqm) and a significant RON presently; in effect, this means a growth of over three
<100,000 100,000-250,000
extension of Shopping City Galati (21,000 sqm in new quarters of actual purchasing power, highlighting a much
>250,000 (except Bucharest) Bucharest
GLA) – both owned by NEPI Rockcastle, last year saw more sustainable consumption than before the crisis, as
mostly the delivery of smaller schemes and retail parks lending also plays a greatly diminished role. Overall, barring
(Prima Shops Oradea – developed by Oasis Development, Data Source: Colliers International

14 Colliers International Romania


Research & Forecast Report | 2018
the year-end jitters in financial markets, with money In this respect, the food and beverage segment is New entries in 2017 were from a fairly wide variety, as
market rates increasing sharply, it was a frantic year with benefitting quite a lot from the strong consumer appetite, well as different price ranges. From fashion (Armani
exceptional results following a strong 2016. Another detail with turnover up by close to 14% in the first 10 months of Exchange, Superdry, Ninewest, INCI, Funky Buddha, AC
underscoring this is the fact that the inflation indexed 2017 after increasing by 15% in 2016. McDonald’s remains & CO) to sportswear (Sport Loft, Under Armour) to F&B
turnover volume index in the non-food retail trade was the largest player on the restaurant market, though (Pizza Sbarro, Taco Bell). It is worth pointing out that Taco
one third above its pre-crisis peak, reached in 2008, while the other players (KFC, Pizza Hut, Starbucks, Subway, Bell made its first step in the CEE region in Romania.
printing a growth of over 13% compared to 2016. Spartan, Mesopotamia) have been quite active. Companies
are also exploring new formats – like Starbucks opening
The fashion segment was a great beneficiary of the solid
demand. Since the supply consisted to a wide degree
its first drive-through unit in Romania; another trend Rents
worth underscoring on the F&B segment is an increased
of retail parks in smaller towns, we noticed that the Rents have been more or less unchanged through 2017,
appetite for larger surfaces (500 sqm or even larger).
most active tenants were still those from the budget to despite the low vacancy rates (mostly in single digit
Food anchors have also had a terrific 2017, with double-
medium range (Pepco, Deichmann, CCC, Jysk, TXM). It is territory for bigger schemes). That said, the rents which
digit growth in revenues for some in a like-for-like basis,
noteworthy that H&M, one of the strongest fashion anchors include a variable component saw quite an increase amid
something quite rare for them.
on the domestic market, has taken its first steps into the vibrant consumer spending – retail sales for non-food
smaller retail schemes outside Bucharest; other brands goods jumped by close to 13% last year. We also want
normally seen in malls are moving to retail parks as well. Wages versus retail sales to point out that differences in rents between Bucharest
Higher-end tenants remained focused mostly on Bucharest and the major regional cities are not as big as they used
with a limited presence in the large regional cities, at most. 2500 180 to be, highlighting the fact that spending frenzy has been
Otherwise, vacancy is likely at cyclical lows (virtually non- (3 month rolling averages) quite widespread throughout the country. Last, but not
160
existent for a lot of the successful shopping centres). 2200 least, retailers which pay a rent with a variable component
An important aspect to note is that shopping centres are 140
seem content to pay higher rents now to compensate for a
still delivering solid results for brick and mortar stores as 1900 potential future slowdown.
Romanians have a higher predisposition than regional peers 120
Romania Shopping Centres Average Rents
to actually look at a certain product before purchasing 1600
100
it. Still, in order to improve footfall, malls will need to City Asking Rent (€ / sqm /month)
cement their status as actual destinations to spend one’s 1300 80
free time. This means more space for the food court and Bucharest 55-65
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17
other entertainment services like cinemas or children’s Cities with more than
playgrounds. Aiming to allocate close to a quarter of the 30-40
250,000 inhabitants
Net wage (RON/month, constant 2017 prices, left scale)
total GLA could be important to improve catchment. We
also expect this trend to help out malls in their battle against Non-food retail sales (2007=100, right scale) Cities with less than
15-20
online retail, though given the current state of the Romanian 250,000 inhabitants
market, we expect both segments (online and offline sales)
Data Source: INSSE, Colliers International *Average rents obtainable for prime spaces in good performing centres
to thrive alongside over the medium term. for 100 sqm occupied by good brands;

**This represents the market average; there are big differences between
the cities depending on the level of competition;

15
Projects to be delivered in 2018

Project Baia Mare Value Centre Project Bistrita Retail Park Project Roman Value Centre
Developer Prime Kapital/MAS REI Developer Element Development Developer Prime Kapital/MAS REI
GLA sqm 22,500 GLA sqm 15,000 GLA sqm 15,000

Forecast Project Shopping City Satu Mare Vaslui Strip Mall


Project
(extension)
The pipeline for 2018 has some 175,000 sqm in new Developer NEPI Rockcastle
GLA sqm 28,700 Developer NEPI Rockcastle
retail spaces pencilled in (we do not take into account
Satu Mare GLA sqm 2,800
standalone schemes smaller than 5,000 sqm), with Baia Mare
Bucharest accounting for less than 20% of this, with a
Bistrita
single project in the outskirts. No new big schemes are Shopping City Sibiu
Roman
Project Focsani Value Centre
Project
currently in the pipeline for Bucharest or throughout the (extension) Vaslui
Developer Prime Kapital/MAS REI
country for that matter, though we would not exclude Developer NEPI Rockcastle GLA sqm 6,400
such an announcement sooner or later. GLA sqm 16,900 Sibiu
Focsani
It is noteworthy that developers are turning their attention
more and more to smaller towns (population below Project
MIOVENI Mioveni Project Slobozia Value Centre
Comercial Centre
100,000 inhabitants), with some small- to medium- Slobozia
Developer Prime Kapital/MAS REI
Developer Mitiska REIM Ilfov
sized schemes. In the same vein, some FMCG chains Craiova GLA sqm 10,200
GLA sqm 8,800
are moving into even smaller towns, with just a couple
of tens of thousands of inhabitants. As such, it is worth
pointing out that while deliveries for the market overall Electroputere Craiova Project DN1 Balotesti
Project
remain a far cry from pre-crisis levels, the ones in (extension) Developer Prime Kapital/MAS REI
towns smaller than 100,000 inhabitants are set to be Developer Catinvest GLA sqm 28,000
comparable to 2007. GLA sqm 21,200 Data Source: Colliers International

The partnership of Prime Kapital / MAS REI, the most


active developer in 2018 based on current plans – with
new GLA close to 100,000 sqm – wants to add retail
its Electroputere mall in Craiova by adding new 21,200 established positions might try to woo clients with improved
parks and extensions in cities like Slobozia, Roman, Baia
sqm in new retail spaces, as well as an office component. shopping experiences. In fact, as the retail market matures
Mare. It will deliver one of this year’s large new additions:
A new retail park in Bistrita, by Element Development, and and expansion is no longer the primary focus, we should
a retail park just north of Bucharest, near Balotesti, with
one in Mioveni (Mitiska) round up what looks like a busier expect to see both malls and tenants seeking refurbishments
28,000 sqm in new retail GLA. Satu Mare will also attract
year in terms of deliveries than 2017. and adding a higher emphasis on client experience, also
a new mall by NEPI Rockcastle (28,700 sqm), with the
developer also seeking to extend its current schemes in On the demand side we expect to see new players trying to by incorporating more tech elements. For the moment, this
Sibiu and Vaslui. French developer Catinvest will expand enter the market (Polish, Turkish brands), while tenants with trend mostly applies to Bucharest.

16 Colliers International Romania


Research & Forecast Report | 2018
17
Office Market
relocations from non-competitive stock, an increase of close
to 10% and possibly the best post-crisis result.
The IT&C segment was again the single biggest driver,
generating over 40% of total leasing activity: 140,000 sqm,
an impressive growth of over 80% compared to 2016. The
outsourcing segment was also robust, so it is still safe to
assume that IT&C plus BPO/SSC operations for companies
in other sectors account for at least half of the activity in
the office market.
Looking at a geographic distribution, the established prime
  ucharest
B Demand
locations, namely Floreasca/Barbu Vacarescu and the
office market Leasing activity cooled a bit in 2017, with total take-up for
class A office buildings at just over 320,000 sqm, down by
CBD, took centre stage, each accounting for over 19%
of total deals. Another impressive dynamic was that of
Supply some 10% versus a year earlier, though this was still the Piata Presei/Expozitiei, set to become a new hub in the
second best post-crisis result, after 2016 of course. This is Bucharest office market amid a hefty pipeline for the next
Last year saw the delivery of 123,000 sqm of new
also some ways below our initial estimate, but it is still quite couple of years. The decrease in activity for Centre-West
modern office spaces, taking the total stock to nearly 2.3
a feat in itself if we take into account the increased labour region is bound to be temporary, considering the large
mil. sqm. This is lower than we had anticipated and also
force availability constraints that emerged during last year, projects planned in this area.
below 2016’s 230,000 sqm deliveries, though the latter
limiting employers’ ability to expand. The better news is that
coincided with the best post-crisis pace and was double Overall, market conditions in Bucharest are fairly neutral,
net take-up for class A buildings actually accelerated last
the average seen in the post-crisis period. Some delays with vacancy at just under 10% at the end of last year.
year, amounting to over 150,000 sqm in new demand or
were recorded due to both an overstretched construction
segment and some developers seemingly pushing back Bucharest leasing activity peaking Gross take-up by area (% of total)
their projects as they seek to improve the pre-lease
400,000 25
percentage before the actual delivery. This coincides with (sqm)
the tight overall labour market, an issue we have touched 350,000 2016 2017
20
upon in the macro section. The trend we highlighted 300,000
last year continues to hold water, with half of the total 250,000
15

expected deliveries coming from just two projects (the first


200,000 10
phases for Globalworth’s Campus and Forte Partner’s The
Bridge); Vastint also delivered over 30,000 sqm in two 150,000 5
new buildings in its Timpuri Noi Square. 100,000
0
Underpinning the newer hotspot in Centre-West, the two

Barbu Vacarescu

CBD

Pompeiu

Centre-West

Pipera

West

Timpuri Noi

Other
Piata Presei/
Dimitrie
50,000

Expozitiei
Floreasca/
projects delivered here in 2017 accounted for over one 0
third of total, while Timpuri Noi and Dimitrie Pompeiu each 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F
had a share of just under a quarter of total. Gross take-up Net take-up

Data Source: Colliers International Data Source: Colliers International

18 Colliers International Romania


Research & Forecast Report | 2018
Total take-up by sector in 2017 Bucharest Rents & Vacancy Rates
(% of total)
9%
44%
10%
IT&C
Consumer goods Baneasa
Professional Services 11-13 8-10
11%
Finance / Banking /
Insurance
10% 33%
Energy / industrial Pipera
Other
15-16 D. Pompeiu
12% 5%
11-13
Piata Presei/Expozitiei
14% 8%
16-18
2% 14-16 Floreasca
Aviatorilor 3% Barbu Vacarescu
Data Source: Colliers International
16-18
11%
Still, developers have acquired a good land bank for future Victoriei
projects by 2020, that are set to yield well over half a million P.Poenaru 14-15 Romana 13-14
10 9%
M
10%
sqm if constructed. Otherwise, the same mantras are still Grozavesti
Pacii 4% Eroilor
true: good access to the public transport infrastructure, Universitate Piata Muncii
higher quality buildings, an interesting mix of amenities. With Politehnica Izvor Unirii 12-14
companies having ever more difficulties in maintaining good 14-15 14%
15% Vitan
attrition rates and in attracting new talent, the workplace
Timpuri Noi
itself has become a differentiating factor. As such, given the
heavier delivery calendar announced for the next couple of
years, we consider that higher tier properties might see less Eroii Revolutiei
11-12
downward pressures on rents than lower tier ones, as some 21%
companies might be willing to shell out a bit more money to Piata Sudului
keep their employees happy.
Rents
Rents were broadly stable throughout 2017 and we expect
this trend to continue in 2018. Still, as vacancies start
climbing a bit and planned deliveries remain significant,
we could start seeing some downward pressures on rents
towards the end of the year (it could also mean showing
n Average headline rent (€/sqm)
similar headline rents and more flexibility regarding
n Vacancy rate
incentives for tenants).

19
Forecast migrated in previous years, offering a boost to the office
market. Due to labour market constraints, we would expect
of mixed-use projects with an office component). Overall,
currently announced projects (most with construction
We expect to see some 185,000 sqm in new class A office the Bucharest leasing market to cool down a bit this year: works yet to commence) add up to half a million sqm,
spaces this year. It is worth highlighting that developers we forecast total take-up at around 300,000 sqm, with net mostly in Centre-West and Piata Presei/Expozitiei.
are turning a bit more prudent, as the figure is over one take-up at 135,000. This would take overall market vacancy
third smaller than the figure we would have estimated
for 2018’s pipeline some 2-3 quarters ago. Currently,
towards 12% by end-2018.
 Regional cities in focus
New large-scale projects offer opportunities for companies
companies would love to hire more people, but their demand We have been arguing that it is high time for regional cities
with a large domestic footprint to consolidate their offices
cannot be matched by the current workforce supply, as to steal the limelight from Bucharest, supported by internal
in Romania and developers might be pressed to offer the
unemployment for people with tertiary education is close migration patterns (see pages 8-9), and developers seem
new tenants options for both expansions or downsizing in
to all-time lows. We also cannot take into account potential to be gearing up for this. Though the current modern office
the future.
disruptions stemming from unforseen fiscal changes as stock in the major regional cities altogether (Cluj-Napoca,
the government’s limited budget room might yield some With the public transport infrastructure stretched to its Timisoara, Iasi and Brasov) is currently some 3.5 times
unpopular measures. The tight labour market suggests that limits in the northern part of Bucharest, developers are lower than in Bucharest, the pipeline in these cities for
activity may have peaked in 2016-2017 on the Bucharest expanding the Centre-West’s stock and exploring new 2018 stands at almost 150,000 sqm versus Bucharest’s
office market, but there are a couple of footnotes here. For hotspots in Timpuri Noi or Piata Presei/Expozitiei. The 185,000 sqm.
example, we cannot say precisely what will happen with latter still offers material untapped alternatives given the
Taking a closer look at these cities, Cluj-Napoca has been
external migration patterns, as higher domestic wages might plans for a metro line extension in that area, as well as still
rivalling Bucharest in terms of complexity of the services it
actually start drawing back some of the Romanians that holding large swaths of unused land (potential for a couple
can cover, based on workforce competence. The north-
western region of Romania, led by Cluj-Napoca, has been
2017 deliveries and pipeline by area (sqm) recently crowned by the Milken Institute as the fastest
growing in the EU in terms of hi-tech services expansion
75,000
in recent years. The city’s university is ranked as the
best in Romania by several institutions, while start-up
2017 rates among youths are comparable to Bucharest’s, even
50,000 2018 though its population is well smaller. Innovation, growing
entrepreneurship culture and skilled graduates make
Cluj-Napoca highly attractive for IT rather than lower-tier
BPO/SSC services. Cluj’s very low vacancy on the office
25,000 segment (below 5% end-2017) makes this very much a
developer market and land availability constraints mean
a limited pipeline over the medium term, even though the
town would be the most interesting proposition in Romania
0 other than Bucharest. Still, a solid pipeline for 2018 (47,000
sqm – mostly from UBC Riviera and Hexagon’s project)
Centre-West

Pompeiu

Barbu Vacarescu

CBD

Timpuri Noi

West
Piata Presei/
Dimitrie

Expozitiei
Floreasca/

should alleviate these pressures a bit.


Timisoara remains an interesting alternative due to its
mix of opportunities. Firstly, its proximity to neighbouring
Data Source: Colliers International Hungary’s infrastructure means it has attracted quite a lot

20 Colliers International Romania


Research & Forecast Report | 2018
of attention on the industrial segment (unemployment Romania’s main office markets
among low-skilled labour-intensive jobs at cyclical lows).
Modern office stock 160,800 sqm
On the other hand, in the Ministry of Education’s ranking Pipeline, 2018 12,000 sqm
of domestic universities, Timisoara had 3 universities Vacancy 7.75%
in the top 20, the same as Cluj-Napoca and Iasi and a Modern office stock 204,200 sqm
Average rent 10.5
whisker behind Bucharest, which had 4 universities. Pipeline, 2018 47,000 sqm
Average wage
Vacancy 4.75% 432
Timisoara’s engineering university ranks second in (county level, EUR)
Average rent 12.0 IT&C graduates
the country behind the one in the capital, highlighting 1,500
Average wage per year
again quite good skills for employers. Its office vacancy (county level, EUR)
521
stood at just 3% by end-2017, though it should increase Modern office stock IT&C graduates
steadily as it has the biggest pipeline among the major
126,800 sqm
per year
1,900 Iasi
Pipeline, 2018 74,000 sqm
regional cities (mostly due to the Openville project, one Vacancy 3.00%
of the biggest mixed-use schemes in Romania, but also Average rent 12.0 Cluj-Napoca
other large projects like ISHO Offices, Bega Business Average wage
522
(county level, EUR)
Park or VOX Technology Park).
IT&C graduates
2,000
The town of Iasi, in the north-eastern part of Romania, per year Modern office stock 117,500 sqm
offers some advantages over the longer run. Internal Pipeline, 2018 15,000 sqm

migration patterns and the youngest population among Timisoara Vacancy 13.00%

the major economic hubs suggest it should continue to do Brasov Average rent 10.0
Average wage
well for years to come. Though it does not rank as highly (county level, EUR)
450
as Bucharest, Cluj-Napoca or even Timisoara in terms IT&C graduates
500
of service output complexity, it could certainly climb up per year
in the next years thanks to its high-quality universities
and – still – better labour force availability. Taking these
arguments into account, the city has been drawing
increasing attention from BPO/SSC companies and it won BUCHAREST
Emerging City of the Year at 2018’s CEE Shared Services Modern office stock 2,3 mil. sqm
and Outsourcing Awards Gala in Poland. Pipeline, 2018 185,000 sqm
Vacancy 9.75%
Brasov, though the smallest office market of the major Average rent 14.5
hubs in Romania, is quite an attractive opportunity over Average wage
651
the medium term, provided it will have an airport soon. (county level, EUR)
It is also interesting that Brasov outranks Timisoara and IT&C graduates
2,700
per year
Iasi in terms of the percentage of population with tertiary
education. This means a large pool of talent waiting
to be tapped as operating costs (both rents and labour
costs) are considerably smaller than for the other cities. Data Source: INSSE, Colliers International, Brainspotting

21
Co-working
towards the so-called gig economy, Romanians are
seeming keener than ever to start flying solo, with the very
strong GDP growth numbers to act as catalysts. The most
recent surveys from the European Commission do highlight
the fact that Romanians have a higher appetence towards
opening companies, with around one in four actively looking
into this, double the average share in the EU.

20-29 30-39
years old years old
Number of people
Global number of coworking members holding shares in 123,618 348,679
Co-working: mixing the (millions) companies (end-2017)
new and newer 6.0
Increase in number of
5.1 28,296 81,809
5.0 shareholders since 2015
4.5

4.0 3.8 Source: ONRC


3.1
Entrepreneurs, freelancers and companies are starting 3.0 We are already seeing an interesting pattern emerging,
to come to terms with a new type of deal, whereby, for a 2.3 with around 28,000 people under the age of 30 years
2.0 1.7
premium price, they can occupy a workspace for exactly old becoming shareholders in companies in the last two
the period of time they need, with everything included, 1.0 years, taking the grand total for this age group to almost
1.0 0.5
from wi-fi to security to espressos and even craft beer. 124,000 people. For the 30-39 years old category, the
0.0
The antiquated “serviced office” is starting to make way 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 number of shareholders expanded by around 82,000, to
for the trendy “co-working” space. Though this might not nearly 349,000 persons. It is impossible to say how many
Source: Emergent Research
seem obvious at first, even large companies are joining of these were opened companies for tax optimization
in, with WeWork, one of the largest players in the shared of operators (Impact Hub, Regus) generated over 2% purposes, but it is still an impressive growth rate. These
office market globally, saying that over one fifth of its in gross take-up activity for class A office in Bucharest young companies with generation Y shareholders ought
spaces is occupied by companies with more than 1,000 compared to much more modest numbers in previous to greatly boost demand on the co-working scene in the
employees. As such, this trend is proving far more than years. Peering into the future, we believe that in about five medium term.
a transitory fad and we expect this revolution to come years, shared work spaces will come to have a material
As work becomes less dependent on one’s physical
quite fast to Eastern Europe as well. To paraphrase Ernest share in total take-up, of at least 10% per year nationwide.
presence somewhere, flexibility will be something sought
Hemingway on this, change tends to happen nowadays The potential supply for shared service spaces in Romania
after by both employees and companies. For instance,
“gradually, then suddenly”. need not come just from high rises, as quite a lot of
we can imagine that among company-offered benefits,
unconventional buildings (like former factories or other
Today’s co-working facilities in Romania can barely like gym/private healthcare subscriptions, a similar
industrial assets in urban settings) can be refitted into
accommodate a couple of thousands of members arrangement with a co-working network/space would not
posh destinations.
nationwide, while in Bucharest, such spaces (including be an uncommon sight; this need not be with a single large
hubs) represent just around 1% of the total modern office There are several reasons why we believe this change will operator, as we can imagine that smaller players/hubs
stock. Still, there has been a pick-up in activity, as a couple take place. Even when looking past the global migration can form alliances, for instance. Since there are probably

22 Colliers International Romania


Research & Forecast Report | 2018
hundreds of thousands of people working in Bucharest, but
born in other cities, we think they might welcome being
able to work close to their relatives a couple of months a
year. This could also work wonders in a town as crowded
as Bucharest as working closer to home in a shared work
space might save people the hassle of commuting in one of
the most crowded towns in Europe. Other advantages for
employees might include a better sense of empowerment
and control, increasing job satisfaction.
We would normally expect Bucharest to spearhead
the development of co-working in Romania and this is
something which we are currently seeing, as the shared
service operators are renting considerably more space
in the capital. Still, regional cities not lag too much in our
view, particularly as we argue in the macro section of this
report that these are favoured demographically thanks to
both recent migration patterns and intentions.
For companies, the advantages of co-working can also
be quite significant. Besides the increased flexibility (for
instance, temporarily bringing in freelancers to handle a
sharp rise in the workload), various studies have shown
that such spaces can improve overall productivity. Shared
workspaces can also expose the business to new clients,
while, at the same time offering “traditional” companies
a closer look at the so-called disruptors or other creative
individuals; this would be even more the case for niche hubs
(shared biolabs, women oriented spaces, writers’ spaces,
industry specific spaces). Such locations can also provide
“swing spaces” for multinationals in case of relocations, for
instance. Since some large banks like HSBC or tech-giants
like Microsoft have moved part of their employees into
co-working spaces, we think that arguments like potential
security issues are certainly not insurmountable.

23
Green Buildings
The most certifications (24 or 61% of total) were for
office buildings, though the overall share has decreased
compared to previous year as developers from other
categories of developers are seeking to have a green
stamp on their building. The number of retail-certified
buildings grew (12 or a share of 31%). A hotel and two
mixed-use projects rounded up the grand total.
Another change relative to 2016 is the predominance of
certifications for in-use buildings, which accounted for
over three quarters of the market last year.
Introduction buildings (around the 50,000 sqm GLA) were certified
during last year, taking the grand total towards 1.7 million Incorporating new technologies is also becoming
As the office market continues to mature in Bucharest and sqm of projects – built or in various stages of execution – important, with more and more buildings seeking to
offers an enticing growth outlook for the major regional with green certifications. This would suggest that the total provide tenants with charging stations for electric vehicles.
cities, the standards also continue to improve. What surface of green certified office buildings is around half of A mid-2017 Colliers analysis showed that some 20% of
we noted a year ago still stands true today: developers the nationwide total. Around 200,000 people currently work class A office buildings in Bucharest offered facilities for
are increasingly focused on the efficiency and long- in office buildings that have been deemed to have sufficient electric vehicles, while another 21% were incorporating
term sustainability of their buildings, while tenants are energy efficiency and to be sustainable in the long run. such technologies.
also becoming pickier when choosing a location. CSR The current pipeline remains quite solid, as there are
Basically, every new office building will seek a green
requirements for domestic foreign-owned companies currently 47 buildings seeking LEED certifications,
certification as this is almost a mandatory requirement for
mean an increased attention to environment friendliness whereas this time a year ago, there were 40 certifications
a good positioning on the market. Meanwhile, older office
and resource efficiency throughout a building’s whole in progress. That said, we would expect the market to
schemes, say, from a decade ago or even older, are also
life cycle, from planning to construction to operation. As slowly taper in several years, as most of the older projects
seeking to obtain green certifications for existing/in-use
such, green certifications have become almost mandatory will have received their green certifications by then.
projects in order to remain attractive for tenants.
for a successful high tier real estate project. We continue
to collaborate with developers/landlords to obtain green Green certifications in 2017 by sector Total number of green certifications
certifications, both for BREEAM (Building Research
Establishment’s Environmental Assessment Method) and
35
LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) 8% BREEAM LEED
30 29
standards. This study is based on official data derived from 31% 61% 25
the certification bodies for LEED and BREEAM standards. Office 25
Retail 20

 Green certifications Other 15


10
9 8
market in a nutshell 10

5
5 6 6 6
4
2 1 1
Last year saw 39 green certifications obtained by 0
0

Romanian buildings, both buildings yet to be delivered and 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
those already in use. This an increase over 2016’s already
record-setting result of 29. Meanwhile, several large office Data Source: Colliers International Data Source: Colliers International

24 Colliers International Romania


Research & Forecast Report | 2018
Either way, the market has had a phenomenal period BREEAM / LEED - regional distribution of certifications (sqm)
recently, coming from a total of buildings with green
certifications of below 100,000 sqm before 2011 to over 535000 BREEAM LEED
3 million sqm last year.

Regional split
As real estate projects outside Bucharest have increased
greatly in the last years, so too has interest in green
1149000
certifications in 2017. While Bucharest has nearly 1.7
million sqm in LEED or BREEAM certified buildings, the 161000

other regional cities put together neared this level and 129000
we would expect that by the end of this year or 2019, 340000
216000 53000 46000
these could surpass the capital. 111000 55000 103000 93000 20000 25000 21000 21000 14000 11000

Bucharest

Cluj-Napoca

Timisoara

Ploiesti

Targu Mures

Sibiu

Iasi

Pitesti

Constanta

Drobeta Turnul
Severin

Buzau

Deva
Brasov
Data Source: Colliers International

Quality of certifications Existing BREEAM/ LEED - Tax incentives


We are noting an improvement in the overall quality,
Quality of certifications Offering tax incentives could provide a further boost
with fewer and fewer buildings achieving a low level of to the green certifications market, as well as raise the
certifications; this highlights improvement in building BREEAM Certification LEED Certification
overall building standards. Cluj-Napoca and Timisoara
standards and a growing internal competitiveness for remain the only significant office hotspots to offer a lower
the real estate space. 2017 brought two of the highest property tax (a reduction of as much as 50% if they
Outstanding Platinum
ratings on the LEED scale, namely “Platinum”: one for 3 achieve one of the higher levels of certifications). There
Globalworth Tower in Bucharest (the first one for a new Excellent 1 Gold is talk that other cities, notably Iasi, are thinking about
construction) and a pre-certification for the AFI Tech Park Very Good
31 Silver 21 offering similar fiscal incentives, but no decisive steps
project on former Inox platform. The rest were “Gold”, 56 have been made in this direction.
Good Certified
with no lower LEED ratings assigned during last year.
Turning to BREEAM, while no building achieved Pass 5
12 2
the „Outstanding” rating, last year still marked an 1
improvement, with nearly 45% of ratings being „Excellent”
and 52% achieving „Very Good”. Just one project was
assigned a „Good” level of certification. Data Source: Colliers International

25
Investment Market Transactions and Investors
The year’s biggest deal was the partnership between
Iulius Group (owner of several malls outside Bucharest)
and Atterbury Europe, with the latter acquiring 50% of the
Romanian company’s shares for an estimated EUR 200mn.
Another large ticket was the purchase of Radisson Blu Hotel
Bucharest for EUR 169mn by the US company Cerberus
Capital Management and the regionally-focused Revetas
Capital. These two deals accounted for 38% of 2017’s total,
but overall, last year saw a more balanced mix of the turnover.
Prime yields 2017 Romania
The retail segment was the major driver this year, accounting
Investment market for just under 40% of the total turnover; besides the Iulius-
Atterbury deal, another notable transaction was Mitiska
Overview
Bucharest Warsaw Budapest Prague purchasing almost a dozen smaller schemes in various parts
Investor interest in Romania has strengthened thanks of the country for almost EUR 80mn. There was also some
Office 7.25% 5.15% 6.00% 4.85% to the robust economic growth (the fastest in the EU appetite for distressed assets, as evidenced by the sale of Era
Retail 7.00% 5.25% 6.20% 5.00% by far), increased appetite from domestic banks to fund Shopping Park Iasi, purchased by Prime Kapital/MAS REI for
transactions, high-growth potential for various segments EUR 45mn.
Industrial 8.50% 6.50% 7.75% 6.25% of the real estate market (especially office and industrial)
The Immochan purchase of Coresi Business Park in Brasov for
and a fairly generous yield differential compared to most
around EUR 50mn was the biggest deal on the office segment,
Data Source: Colliers International CEE countries and to western EU states.
marking a notable push towards regional cities by office
Liquidity neared the EUR 1bn mark in 2017, despite some investors. Another noteworthy deal involved the third building
large office deals have been postponed towards 2018 due of Skanska Green Court by Globalworth for EUR 38mn.
CEE Investment market to a lengthier negotiation phase. As such, actual turnover
stood at around EUR 960mn, some 5% above 2016.
The highlight on the industrial side was the China Investment
Corporation transnational Logicor deal, with the value of
2017 was an exceptional year in eastern Europe. Last Looking beyond administrative hurdles and delays, 2017
the four parks in Romania estimated at close to EUR 80mn.
year, investment volumes in CEE-6 (Visegrad countries saw a qualitative improvement of the market compared to
Globalworth’s purchase of the Dacia-leased warehouse near
plus Romania and Bulgaria) stood at just below EUR 13bn, 2016 as investor interest broadened and the number of
Pitesti for EUR 42.5mn was another important transaction.
some 6% higher than 2016 and 47% above 2015. It is also deals increased.
CTP consolidated its position as the largest industrial space
the best result since 2007. We saw some notable entries via transactions: Atterbury owner by concluding four investment deals amounting to
Amid stronger consumption-driven growth, the retail Europe, Cerberus Capital Management and China approximately EUR 40mn.
segment stole the show with 39% of total and office Investment Corporation, with the latter part of a large
Pricing
trailing with a 27% share; industrial deals also slowed a transnational deal (the biggest private equity real estate
bit. Yields continued to move largely south, with Prague deal in Europe). Still, we highlight that both recently active The increased interest for domestic assets has been placing
and Warsaw still seeing the closest yields to developed investors and those that remained passive in recent years ever more upward pressures on prices, with some prime
western markets, while Bucharest is still regarded as have shown interest in snatching up new assets (CTP, office properties receiving offers at 7.25% (down from 7.50%
riskier, but a high-growth potential alternative. Smartown Investments, Globalworth, GTC, Mitiska). a year earlier). Prime retail yields were flat in the last year,

26 Colliers International Romania


Research & Forecast Report | 2018
Investment turnover (EURmn) reflect more closely the favourable macro trends. For Similarly, liquidity on the industrial market is set to improve as
instance, sovereign default swaps/CDS or 10 year Eurobonds players vie for market share against the backdrop of increasing
1000 show smaller differences with regional peers, with the latter demand for production and warehousing spaces. Activity
900
showing Romania c.1.25ppt higher at most than Poland, on the retail segment will be more subdued, but there is a
800
Czech Republic or Hungary. This trust deficit has constrained consistent pipeline of projects coming to the market. Overall,
700
demand in the real estate space, particularly on the office we expect the volume on the investment market to surpass the
600
segment. However, 2018 is set to be a turning point as EUR 1bn mark, a post-2008 maximum; we would expect any
500
the type of assets that will come to the market will change surprises to be rather to the upside.
400
significantly. Whereas the average size of transacted office
300 A materialization of the expected increased competition for
buildings from 2015-2017 was approximately 20,000 sqm,
200 Romanian assets should lead to lower yields across the board.
the current pipeline of office projects to be traded between
100 As such, we could see a 25-50bp yield compression for
2018-2019 has an average size well above 50,000 sqm. This
0 office, industrial and retail segments over the next year and a
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 change on the supply side coupled with renewed interest
half, provided the macro backdrop remains fairly constructive
Hotel Industrial Office Retail from investors should result in a sharp increase of liquidity
and domestic political noise remains at acceptable levels.
in the market. Our estimates indicate that the total volume
Source: Colliers International
of office investment transactions could increase from EUR
at 7.00%. Prime industrial assets, with the best positioning 160mn in 2017 to well above EUR 500mn during 2018.
and long duration of leases, saw their yields drop towards
8.50%. However, as the market is becoming increasingly Prime yields: current versus pre-crisis lows (%)
more nuanced, projects with attractive commercial terms and
Prague 5.75
features are looking to receive better pricing. 4.85
Budapest 6.25
Meanwhile, the banks’ interest for funding real estate deals 6
has been on the rise, with central bank surveys among the Warsaw
5.15
5.75
top lenders suggesting a low risk perception is predominant. Office 5.5
Bucharest
7.25
Margins remain lower than they were in previous years 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%
(250 basis points for prime properties), while stable and low
2007-2008 minimum
Euribor rates offer further comfort, though strong Eurozone Prague
5
5.5
End-2017 level
growth suggests the low rate environment might be slowly Budapest 6
6.2
drawing to a close. Other funding options, like bonds, offer
Retail Warsaw 6.5
alternatives for investors to choose the most appropriate 5.25
solution for a specific deal. Bucharest 7
7
4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%

Forecast Prague 6.5


6.25
While investor sentiment towards Romania has improved Budapest 6.75
7.75
markedly during 2017, transactions have lagged behind. We 6.5
believe there is a perception issue regarding Romania for the Industrial Warsaw
6.5
real estate market’s participants, as other financial markets Bucharest 8
8.5
4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Source: Colliers International

27
Land Market
residential component as well. This transaction and others
are also emblematic of another trend: the appetite for
large surfaces, as developers achieved confidence that
the market can digest ever bigger projects (for instance,
residential developments with over 1,000 units). Still,
internal challenges and an increased number of residential
deliveries in 2018 might lead to a more cautious approach
in the future for big projects.
The newly-found strength in the real estate space has led
to the „re-activation” of some large investors that had been
Demand greatly in the past few years (please look at the retail
section of this report for a chart showing the dynamic of
dormant until now on the land market; this increasingly
competitive market has supported both asset prices and
The land market just ended its best year in the last decade, the CPI-adjusted net wage in the last decade).
made it easier to close deals. 2017 also saw the entry of
with the overall value of transactions for real estate
The office cycle led to a significant boost in interest for quite a few new players, which acquired land plots mostly
projects (office, retail, residential or mixed-use, without
land acquisitions, as developers wanted to establish a for residential developments.
industrial segment) increasing by an estimated 25-30%
good land bank for the next couple of years. This was the
relative to 2016, reaching around EUR 350mn. Some two
result of a fairly robust office leasing market, especially
thirds of the grand total came from deals in Bucharest.
With the residential segment accounting for close to half of
in Bucharest and, to a lesser degree, in the four major Supply
regional cities: Cluj-Napoca, Timisoara, Iasi and Brasov.
the transactions in the capital, the rest was almost equally The market has absorbed the excess supply in recent years,
The land deals likely lead the office development/leasing
split between retail and office. influenced by distressed owners who wanted to liquidate
markets. In Bucharest, the Expozitiei area saw the biggest
Keeping up with the pattern seen in recent years, total turnover, followed by central areas (Calea Victoriei). their assets in a limited timeframe. Given the favourable
demand for land plots aimed at residential projects was backdrop, several large owners (Immofinanz, Telekom, Plaza
Looking at demand-side forces nationwide, it would seem
focused on areas near office hubs. As such, the most Centers, Trigranit) continued to sell their portfolios – either
that the crown passed to the retail segment last year. This
active areas were the Centre and North of Bucharest: individually or in bulk. Some are exiting the market, but for
has been seeing strong interest throughout the country,
Bulevardul Expozitiei, Bucurestii Noi and the Baneasa-DN1 the most part, companies are seeking to dispose of non-core
maybe a bit less for Bucharest. Demand is coming both
- Jandarmeriei area - due to the future office hub in the assets and focus on their main activity/real estate segment.
from retailers and developers of retail parks, aiming for
Expozitiei area, but also the Floreasca-Barbu Vacarescu,
both smaller or larger schemes. Currently, retailers are The supply is still influenced by former factories within city
Aviatiei and Pipera areas. The improved interest in the
still having to fill gaps in poor coverage of modern retail boundaries. Fabrica Industria Iutei, Policolor, Tricodava in
residential segment is also helping deals close in other
schemes throughout the country, including in smaller cities Bucharest and part of Roman Brasov are some notable
cities. The vibrant economy, good disposable income
with population below 100,000. We note interest from examples of sales seen during 2017. A solid pipeline for
growth and low interest rates (for most of the year) have
food retailers (discounters, hypermarkets), DIY, furniture, future projects will continue to come from such former
pushed home purchase intentions towards post-crisis
cash&carry and others. industrial assets in urban settings.
highs, as European Commission surveys show. For now,
it is still too early to say how the start of a new monetary The highlight of the year was the sale of Policolor-owned We also note an increasing number of partnerships
policy tightening cycle and renewed political noise will land in the eastern part of Bucharest (nearly 14 hectares between land owners and developers (mostly for
impact the morale of consumers, but we would believe that bought for around EUR 22m by Raul Ciurtin, ERES); residential), with the former putting forward the actual land
the residential segment will continue to do fairly well as this deal strengthens an already existing retail hotspot, and the latter dealing with the project in all its intricacies,
the average consumer’s purchasing power has increased though it is likely to become a mixed-use project, with a including funding.

28 Colliers International Romania


Research & Forecast Report | 2018
Prices 2017 Bucharest Land prices
in major transactions
While price hikes in 2015 and 2016 were seen rather on
a case-by-case basis, 2017 marked a more generalized
increase in asset valuations. We estimate that land prices Pipera
moved north by some 10-15% nationwide. Dynamics were ¤ 75-275 /sqm
quite varied, with some cities and even parts of Bucharest
seeing little to no price changes. That said, there was
increased interest for central areas of Bucharest, as well as Aviatiei - Dimitrie Pompeiu
areas that are strategic for the office submarket, including ¤ 500-1,500 /sqm
Bucurestii Noi
in Romania’s emerging regional powerhouses on this ¤ 270-450 /sqm
segment (Timisoara, Cluj-Napoca, Iasi). For some smaller
Expozitiei Barbu Vacarescu
land plots in Bucharest’s central areas, last year also saw
¤ 350-1,000 /sqm ¤ 600-800 /sqm
prices in excess of 2,000 EUR/sqm, a level reminiscent of
Lacul Morii Stefan cel Mare
the pre-crisis period, not of recent years. Smaller cities, Regie Orhideelor
¤ 200-250 /sqm ¤ 700-750 /sqm
meanwhile, have barely started to close deals, which is, ¤ 400-550 /sqm
Iuliu Maniu - Preciziei Calea Victoriei
nevertheless, a progress if we consider that there was
¤ 120-150 /sqm ¤ 1,000-2,200 /sqm
little interest from buyers in previous years; this means
these markets saw no meaningful upward pressures on Unirii
Razoare Progresului
¤ 600-850 /sqm
prices, though on a case-by-case basis, it is possible that ¤ 250-600 /sqm Marasesti - Carol Park
some transactions (in prime/unique locations, for instance)
¤ 600-650 /sqm
closed at higher prices than in previous years. eodor Pallady
¤ 100-160 /sqm

Forecast
2018 is shaping up to be just as dynamic as 2017, with
several large deals currently in various stages. Still, as Berceni
the active developers have acquired a good land bank ¤ 120-250 /sqm
(especially for office and residential), they might focus
more on bringing their real estate projects to the market
rather than looking at new locations. This means that new
demand might be a bit poorer than last year’s. Appetite
for larger surfaces might also suffer a bit for residential
projects as the market is set to receive an increased
number of units this year. Moreover, developers might The information is based on the deals closed or secured in 2017 and not
turn a bit more cautious due to internal challenges related, average asking prices for the specified areas. They highlight the most
for instance, to the higher RON interest rates constraining targeted type of land plots. As usual, the prices were influenced by size,
disposable income or uncertainties about state policies. destination, building parameters, status of the permitting process.

29
Bucharest is likely to retain its top spot in terms of The home ownership ratio in Romania stands at over The price-to-income ratio for Bucharest also looks better
attractiveness, but the major regional hubs (Cluj-Napoca, 90%, the highest rate in the EU and some 20% above the than most CEE capitals in the region (like Warsaw, Prague
Timisoara, Iasi) are increasingly popping up on the radar, member states’ average. The figure might be swelled a bit or Budapest).
as office and residential projects still see good interest by under-reporting of tenants amid tax evasion, but such In order to analyse market risks periodically, the European
from tenants/buyers. In addition, we expect investors numbers suggest it would be more appropriate to judge Central Bank came forward with several econometric
to still show interest with regards to retail schemes in the market from somebody actually using the apartment models to look at over/undervaluation of residential
towns with low coverage of modern retail. Otherwise, as rather than somebody seeking potential returns from an properties in the EU. The ECB’s main model shows that
land plots without adequate permits still carry significant investment in a housing unit. while Romania had some of the most overinflated asset
risks, we believe transactions will continue to focus on This leads us to the central and most relevant aspect, in prices in 2007-2008, it now has the most undervalued
those with zoning/construction documents. our view: disposable income has risen sharply in the last residential property prices in the EU. Of course, such
Given the adequate supply, we would not anticipate any decade, whereas housing prices are still well below their an approach does not lend any attention to regional
significant land price swings. Another aspect worth levels in 2007-2008. To put things into perspective, today’s differences, but it nevertheless offers a precious insight.
pointing out is that strategic/central locations should still average wage can buy two thirds more goods and services On the other hand, in a sign of strong demand keeping
do better as current asset valuations are less „bubbly” than the 2008’s average, while, on the other hand, the up increased deliveries, the share of units sold/booked
than they were a decade ago and projects in prime asking price per square meter in Bucharest, for example, off-plan has increased. While some years ago, the
locations are more appealing for developers. is nearly half its level recorded a decade ago. A useful percentage stood at around 20-30% for a lot of projects,
indicator to look at is the ratio between an apartment’s nowadays, residential schemes are reporting that they
We do not expect any major infrastructure developments
price and the average annual net revenue. For Bucharest, manage to sell in excess of 50% of their units before the
to positively and materially influence the market (the metro
this ratio has dropped some nearly three times in the project is finished. Despite this, the average price growth
extensions in Bucharest continue to progress slowly).
last decade. This means a great improvement in both for apartments has been more or less in line with that of
affordability and sustainability of the market.
Residential segment disposable income.

still not “bubbly” Price-to-income ratio (years to purchase a 60sqm


As the residential projects are a major driver of the
apartment in Bucharest with the average wage)
demand for land, we feel there might be some merit 25.0
to look at the emerging concerns regarding the market
overheating. Talk of a new residential bubble surfaced 20.0
in 2017 as housing prices were shown to be rising in
double-digits in certain parts of the country/in certain 15.0
neighbourhoods, while the central bank repeatedly
expressed its concerns related to the expansion pace 10.0
of mortgages. To start off, we think that such fears
are overdone as things stand currently and we see the 5.0
market to be in much better shape fundamentally than it
was a decade ago. 0.0
1Q08

1Q09

1Q10

1Q11

1Q12

1Q13

1Q14

1Q15

1Q16

1Q17
Purchasing a house is definitely one of the lifelong
priorities many Romanians share and seems to be
deeply embedded from a cultural standpoint. Data Source: Colliers International

30 Colliers International Romania


Research & Forecast Report | 2018
31
Hotel Market

Market Overview the EU, among the ones in the 10-25 million passengers
per year category, Bucharest’s Henri Coanda airport was
The Bucharest hotel market remains the most competitive
in the country, with several international chains consisting
In tune with the macro trends, the hotel market in Bucharest 5th in terms of growth last year, expanding by 16.7%, to the biggest players: Radisson Blu Hotel (over 760 rooms
continued to improve in 2017. It is still mostly geared 12.7 million passengers. Meanwhile, Cluj-Napoca’s number with 3 brands), Hilton (around 560 rooms with three
towards business, with the leisure and MICE (meetings, of passengers grew by close to 50%, to 1.9 million. The brands), JW Marriott (just over 400 rooms), followed by
incentives, conferences and events) still quite subdued. constant increase in new destinations (both national and Sheraton and InterContinental Bucharest (both with under
All segments are likely expanding, with a robust outlook as international) remains a key aspect to look out for. 300 rooms). Overall, there are close to 150 hotels with
well, including for the leisure segment. It is noteworthy that more than 12,800 rooms, with the premium segment (4
The duration of stay in Romania remains fairly low, at
Bucharest made its way into Booking.com’s top 10 up-and- and 5 stars) accounting for close to half.
2 nights on average for foreign visitors, highlighting the
coming destinations tourists should visit in 2018, calling it a
fact that the country benefits mostly from business trips The Garden Inn by Hilton in Bucharest’s old town, with
„new to the alternative city break scene and a great option
(likely over 70% of total hotel business for Bucharest) and, 201 rooms, was last year’s notable addition, though a
because of its museums, parks, trendy cafés and mix of art
to a lesser extent, city break status. The capital city also Courtyard hotel (Marriott brand) has been announced in
nouveau and modern architecture.”
became a more sought-after leisure destination, which the north. The French company Accor has also secured
The number of foreign visitor arrivals in Romania’s hotels materialized in a higher share of the demand generated by a development land and might announce a new project
and other accommodation options grew by over 10% last the leisure segment, moving towards 20%. The average fairly soon, while it likely retains additional interest. In this
year, towards 2.8 million persons, with almost half of these expenditure per trip stands at around 470 euro per person respect, it is important to note that Accor-owned Orbis
in Bucharest. This remains well lower than CEE peers (who per trip, with the bulk – little over half – represented by Hotel Group announced previously that it plans to become
receive at least 2-3 times more foreign tourists per year). accommodation expenses. the largest player in Romania.
Romania is host to nearly 1,600 hotels, with the number
increasing slightly from year to year. The average
occupancy rate throughout the year improved marginally, Supply Demand
to 37.4% from 37% in 2016, which is one of the best levels Businesses travellers continue to be the prime clients of
Romania seems to be one of the attractive emerging
in the post-crisis period. Besides the steady rise in foreign high-tier establishments (4 and 5 stars), while the leisure
markets for new players in the hospitality industry:
visitors, we note that the robust increase in disposable tourism usually heads for hotels lower down the cost range.
Bucharest has little over 8 room beds in hotels per 1,000
income for Romanians has led to an increased spending
inhabitants compared to over 14 for Budapest and nearly 27 The average daily rate (ADR) increased in 2017 by close
appetite, with the transition towards services only natural.
for Prague. Also, close to 45% of the hotels in the capital to 10% in local currency terms for 5-star hotels, to reach
Highlighting the favourable outlook, we note that quite a city are branded, compared to an average of around 60% 96 euro in the second part of the year. This remains 10%
lot of airports in Romania reported very positive results. In for the major CEE cities like Budapest, Warsaw or Prague. to 40% lower than that of the major regional capital cities.

32 Colliers International Romania


Research & Forecast Report | 2018
Highlighting the preference for higher-tier establishments, develop on this segment without adequate multi-purpose on the Bucharest market is the refurbishment of Lido
the ADR for 4-star hotels saw a growth rate around half venue centres, which it currently lacks. Hotel, expected to be finalized sometime in 2018.
that seen by the 5-star ones, reaching around 66 €. The office hotspots (like the northern or central-western As far as trends go, the hospitality segment is starting to
The average occupancy for the 12 months ending parts of Bucharest) hold potential for fresh hotel diversify: we are noting an increase in interest for brands
September 2017 stood at around 75-76% for both 4-star developments. So does the Old Town, which is likely to geared towards leisure tourism, as well as mixed concepts
and 5-star establishments, an improvement of some 2-3 see some new brands (no necessarily new companies) (like flexible rooms, with rental of beds rather than rooms).
percentage points over the previous year. As such, thanks opening hotels via refurbishments of old/historic buildings; We might also start seeing projects geared at certain
to both the higher ADR and improved occupancy, the this area has a potential for some 500 new rooms to come niches, like students or blue-collar workers.
average revenue per room saw in excess of 15% growth in to market in the upcoming years. Another event expected
the second part of the year, even in months that were not
marked by exceptional events like the Enescu Festival.
Passengers on board, arrivals to Bucharest airport (million, 2016)

Forecast
As the outlook for the market remains quite optimistic,
companies are seeking solutions to expand their network.
While the traditional and potentially cumbersome
management contract is not viewed as an attractive
solution currently, new solutions are emerging. Some Great
higher-tier brands might be seeking to buy or invest Britain
Netherlands Germany
alongside developers, offering the latter an exit option if
need-be. Another solution that could help the domestic Belgium 0.5 1.2
market growth might be a “rental contract”, with a hotel
1.3
built by a local company then handed over to a hotel brand 0.4
for a fixed instalment.
France Austria 0.4
With Bucharest’s office stock expanding constantly over the Romania
last decade and foreign investments continue to pour in, we 0.6 (other towns)
continue to see room for the hotel market to grow on the
business segment. Underpinning this aspect is the renewed 0.9
investor interest for this segment, with last year seeing a
2.0
couple of smaller hotel deals and the largest transaction on
this segment so far in Romania: Radisson Blu, bought for 0.9 Italy
EUR 169m by a Revetas / Cerberus partnership. 0.4
The leisure segment retains a bright outlook as well, as Spain
highlighted by Bucharest’s growing appeal on specialty Greece
websites like Booking.com. Still, Bucharest cannot fully

33
New tax provisions in
is applied, is not taken into account nor can be used to offset
future profits. In other words, newly set-up companies
during the investment phase (when usually the turnover is

the Real Estate Industry


below EUR 1 million) or operating companies with a small
turnover, will not benefit from the tax loss generated by the
expenses incurred.

N.B: As of January 2018, there is a draft law re-introducing the option


to apply the regular corporate income tax regime if the companies
have a minimum subscribed share capital of RON 45,000 and at least
2 employees. Until it is adopted, deduction of any expenses will be a
The investors should analyze the impact of this new concern for all companies with turnover less than EUR 1 million.
measure from two perspectives:
Investors should also consider the following tax aspects that
• 10% EBITDA: Even if the Directive gives the possibility did not change in 2018:
Alex Milcev | Head of Tax & Legal to the EU Member States to choose a limit up to 30%,
Romania opted for only 10%. Clearly, the real estate Rental income
EY Romania companies recording a small EBITDA or in the investment Rental income is included in the taxable profits of the
phase will be affected by this limit as they might not be companies and subject to a flat 16% corporate income tax.
 orporate income
C able to deduct the entire exceeding borrowing costs during
the period they are incurred. Dividend income
tax aspects • Bank loans: Unlike under the interest deductibility Distribution of net profits is taxed with a 5% dividend tax.
restrictions until 31 December 2017, the interest related to However, there are situations when the tax can be reduced to
Deductibility of financing costs bank loans is now included and subject to the same rules nil (e.g. via tax treaties, EU Parent-Subsidiary Directive).
As of 2018, a corporate income taxpayer’s exceeding mentioned above. As the bank loans represent one of the
borrowing costs (i.e. the amount by which deductible main source of financing for real estate industry, this new Capital gains
measure will have a significant impact for the Romanian
borrowing costs exceed taxable interest revenues) in Capital gains obtained by Romanian companies from disposal
real estate companies.
relation to various types of financing (including e.g. bank of Romanian real estate properties are subject to a 16%
loans, inter-company loans, finance leasing, etc.) may be N.B: As of January 2018, there is a draft amendment law replacing the profits. The taxable gain is determined as the difference
deducted for corporate income tax purposes only up to EUR 200,000 threshold with EUR 3,000,000 and 10%-limit with 30%. between the selling price and the fiscal value of the fixed
10% of the company’s EBITDA, adjusted for tax purposes. Micro-enterprise tax regime assets sold. In the case of depreciable fixed assets (buildings),
This EBITDA limitation will be applied to those exceeding the deductible fiscal value is defined as the entry value/
Any company with a turnover below EUR 1 million / year increased revaluated accounting value less fiscal depreciation.
borrowing costs which are above an annual threshold of (compared to EUR 0.5 million applicable in 2017) has the
EUR 200,000 (i.e. the first EUR 200,000 would not be obligation to declare and pay micro-enterprise tax instead As an alternative, the shareholders of a Romanian company
subject to the limitation). of corporate income tax. The micro-enterprise tax is 1% can opt to sell the shares of the company rather than selling
The above measures are transposed from Council Directive or 3% depending on whether the respective company has the company’s property. In this case, they are liable to the 16%
(EU) 2016/1164 of 12 July 2016 laying down rules against tax employees, applied to the turnover. income tax applied to the capital gain obtained through the
avoidance practices that directly affect the functioning of the company sale. In certain situations, based on the provisions
Investors should be aware that the tax loss incurred by a of the tax treaties, sale of shares held in Romanian companies
internal market, known also as Anti-Tax Avoidance Directive. company, during the period in which this mandatory regime may be exempt from tax in Romania.

34 Colliers International Romania


Research & Forecast Report | 2018
Individual tax aspects Capital gains from disposal of shares A tax rebate of 5% of the profit tax / income of micro-
enterprises is available to taxpayers that elect to apply the
Rental income Starting 2018, 10% flat tax rate is payable on the net
VAT split payment mechanism.
capital gain from sale of shares (reduced from 16% as
Although the income tax drops to 10% (from 16% applicable in 2017). Health fund contribution is due as for Other VAT related aspects resulting in certain
applicable in 2017), there is an increase of the health fund the dividend income. cash-flow benefits:
contribution from 5.5% (as applicable in 2017) to 10%.
• The supplies between two VAT registered taxable
However, the health fund contribution is due only if the persons of real estate (land and building) subject to
taxpayer obtained in the previous year rental income (and
other types of income, except for salary) above 12 national
VAT aspects Romanian VAT by option or by law are subject to VAT
simplification measures under certain conditions.
minimum wages. Starting with 2018, the health fund Rental of real estate property is normally VAT exempt. • The VAT adjustments can be performed for every year
contribution if due is capped at RON 2,280 annually. However, any taxable person performing rental activities during which the real estate is used for VAT exemption
may opt to charge a 19% VAT on such transactions (such without deduction right transactions instead of one-off.
The taxable income is determined either (i) by deducting a
option allows deduction of VAT on related costs). • Mergers and spin offs are by default out of scope of VAT.
40% deemed expense quota from the gross income or (ii)
by the single entry bookkeeping. As a rule, the sale of old buildings/parts of buildings and • Romania implemented the VAT Group rules under
the underlying land, as well as of any other type of land certain conditions which allow the consolidation of the VAT
Taxation of real estate transactions
is VAT exempt without deduction right unless the taxable position (payable/refundable) of the VAT Group members.
The real estate tax, due by the taxpayer on the transfer of person performing such transactions opts to tax the sale
the property right or its divisions either buildings or their with 19% VAT. This exemption is not applicable to sale by a
related land, or land without constructions, is maintained taxable person of a new building or building land. Special Local tax aspects
at the level established in February 2017, as follows: rules are applicable for buildings and land registered under The local tax for non-residential buildings due by
• tax exemption for a sale amount up to RON 450,000 one single cadastral number. companies continue to range from 0.2% to 1.3% applicable
(approx. EUR 100,000); and A 5% VAT tax rate is applicable for the sale of social to the taxable value (for building tax purposes) of the
• 3% income tax applicable on a sale amount exceeding housing (including related land) under certain conditions building as at 31 December 2017. The local council may
RON 450,000. (i.e., houses of maximum 120 square meters and not increase this tax with up to 50% of the normal rate.
Dividend income exceeding RON 450,000 in value - net of VAT). Individuals Moreover, a higher building tax rate of 5% is applicable for
trading in real estate as a business are to be treated buildings which are not revalued for more than 3 years.
The tax rate on dividends distributed to individual
as taxable persons. Thus, when performing taxable The land tax is established by taking into account the
shareholders is 5%.
operations (e.g. sale of new buildings) the individuals are number of square meters of land, the rank of the locality
The withholding tax for non-resident individual liable to register for VAT purposes if the volume of their where the respective land is situated, as well as the area
shareholders could result in a more favorable rate, if a transactions exceeds RON 220,000. and/or the category of use of the respective land, as
double tax treaty is applicable. established by the local council.
VAT split payment mechanism
The main taxation impact results from the increase of Additionally, there are certain cases when judicial stamp
Romania introduced the VAT split payment mechanism
the health fund contribution rate to 10% (as compared to duties apply (e.g., in court, etc.). In the case of real estate
in 2018. The mechanism involves special accounts for
5.5% applicable in 2017). Similar conditions in respect transactions, notary and Real Estate Register fees apply
transfer of VAT funds and a system of restrictions and
of the contribution due should be observed as in case of (in total approximately 1%, depending on transaction value).
sanctions related to such funds.
rental income.

35
New rules for contracting construction.
Novelties and practical difficulties.

Oana Bădărău | Partner | Pelifilip


Significant changes • the existence of reasonable suspicions on the quality
of the construction works performed and the need for
Alexandra Ioniţă | Associate | Pelifilip
Suspension of commissioning of technical survey, trials and additional tests to clarify such
construction works suspicions; or
• the developer does not provide the commissioning
Perhaps the most important amendment included in the
One of the changes of 2017 with significant committee the documents required under the law.
new regulation refers to the range of decisions available to
legal impact in real estate was the enactment the commissioning committee. As novelty, the committee In case the committee suspends the process, the minutes
of a new regulation on commissioning may recommend to either suspend, approve or reject the will also include a remedy term for the flaws, which must
of construction and installation works commissioning of the works. However, it appears that not exceed 90 days. Should the contractor not perform
applicable since July 2017. the committee may no longer propose the approval with the remedy works within the set term and still fail to
objections. comply with this obligation despite being notified, the
The new regulation reiterates part of
developer may perform the remedy works by itself, on the
the previously applicable principles on The committee decides to suspend the commissioning contractor’s cost and risk.
commissioning of construction works and in the following cases (substantially, the previous
includes provisions designed to align the “postponement” grounds): However, the new regulation does not lay out the steps
to follow the suspension and completion of the remedy
new regulation with other normative deeds, • non-compliance, inconsistencies, defects or
works. Under a reasonable interpretation, the entire
including ones on fire safety and energy deficiencies which affect the use of the construction works
process will resume from the contractor’s notice aiming at
performance matters. for their intended purpose;
convening the committee. However, in case the developer
Moreover, the new regulation includes several • construction works which are inadequately performed,
performs the remedy works, the contractor would
material changes which are likely to impact incomplete or not performed, which may affect the basic
presumably not be in the position to dispatch the notice.
applicable requirements;
both process and timing in commissioning of Decision-taking process
• defects for which the remediation is lengthy and
real estate projects. strictly necessary to ensure the use of the construction As a rule, the committee takes decisions with the majority
works in accordance with their intended purpose;
of its members’ votes.

36 Colliers International Romania


Research & Forecast Report | 2018
However, the new regulation provides two exceptions:
Additional matters It would appear that an employee of a legal entity
contracted by the developer as advisor on construction
a) deadlocks are handled by giving a casting vote to the
representative of the local authority which issued the to be considered matters would not qualify as member of the commissioning
committee, which seems more of an oversight than the
building permit; and Energy certificate
intention of the legislator.
b) in certain significant projects (e.g. high importance The developer, owner or administrator of a building
class buildings, tall constructions, historical monuments, Delays of the authorities
undergoing commissioning must present to the
publicly funded works etc.), the recommendation of commissioning committee the original version of the While scheduling the commissioning process, developers
certain special participants to reject commissioning takes energy performance certificate. A copy of the certificate should also consider potential delays of authorities in
precedence; these are (a) the issuer of the building permit, will be annexed to the commissioning minutes, in lack of issuing various documents. For example, before convening
(b) the State Inspectorate for Construction Works (in which the minutes are deemed null and void. the committee, the developer must obtain a confirmation
Romanian: “Inspectoratul de Stat in Constructii”), (c) the of receipt of payments by the State Inspectorate for
Following the enactment of the new regulation, the
county directorates for culture/Bucharest Directorate for Construction Works. We are aware of several recent cases
provisions on commissioning were partly correlated with
Culture, (d) the county/Bucharest-Ilfov inspectorates for in which the State Inspectorate delayed the issuance of
the ones regarding the energy certificate, by including
emergency situations. However, it is not clear whether the this document, and such delay reverberated on the overall
the obligation of the committee to check that the energy
issuer of the building permit enjoys such veto right under calendar of projects.
certificate is available.
normal circumstances.
Summoning within the validity term of the
However, the new regulation does not go as far as
specifically stating the obligation to attach the energy
Way forward
building permit
certificate to the commissioning minutes (as set forth While commissioning is a critical milestone on the way to a
The contractor initiates the commissioning process by a under the specific legislation on energy performance of completed and functional building, the construction may be
notice to the developer, setting forth the date of completion buildings). In practice, the members of the committee are used only once the relevant permits have been obtained (e.g.
of all works related to the parts/elements/sectors of the often unaware of such obligation, leading to a critical title fire permit, civil protection permit, operating permit etc.).
building and including the contractor’s request to proceed document being opened to potential validity challenges.
All in all, the new regulation comes with certain
with the commissioning.
Furthermore, developers should also be aware that some clarifications/novelties welcomed in a field compelled by
As novelty, the contractor must send the notice during authorities require that the energy certificate is registered public interest grounds to be highly regulated.
the validity term of the building permit. This addition is with the relevant local council as a prerequisite to
welcomed as it undermines a well-established practice commissioning.
requirement (which was yet to be backed by an explicit
Members of the committee
legal provision) that the commissioning of the construction
works must be carried out while the validity term of the The commissioning committee will include one to three
building permit has not elapsed. construction specialists with expertise in the relevant
works; these cannot be individuals involved in the design/
However, the legislative gap on the manner in which the
performance of the construction. The new regulation
process will be resumed after commissioning is suspended
requires that the construction specialists must either be
leaves a question mark of whether the new/second notice
employees of the developer or authorized persons, acting
of the contractor must also be dispatched before the expiry
based on services agreements.
of the validity term of the permit.

37
Contact our experts

Laurentiu Lazar Silviu Pop Robert Miklo


Managing Partner Head of Strategic Analysis | Research Director | Investment Services
+40 722 308 309 +40 741 698 655 +40 728 988 830
Laurentiu.Lazar@colliers.com Silviu.Pop@colliers.com Robert.Miklo@colliers.com

Stefania Baldovinescu Sebastian Dragomir Laurentiu Duica


Senior Partner Director | Office Advisory Director | Industrial Agency
+40 723 711 522 +40 734 303 158 +40 737 554 973
Stefania.Baldovinescu@colliers.com Sebastian.Dragomir@colliers.com Laurentiu.Duica@colliers.com

Ilinca Paun Simina Niculita Sinziana Oprea


Member of the Board Director | Retail Services Associate Director | Land Agency
+40 722 589 323 +40 723 187 919 +40 726 153 295
Ilinca.Paun@colliers.com Simina.Niculita@colliers.com Sinziana.Oprea@colliers.com

Raluca Buciuc
Director | Valuation Services
and Hospitality Advisory Services
+40 724 290 922
Raluca.Buciuc@colliers.com

38
39
554 offices in About Colliers International Group Inc.
Colliers International Group Inc. (NASDAQ and TSX: CIGI) is an industry leading

68 countries on
global real estate services company with 15,000 skilled professionals operating in 68
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professionals provide a full range of services to real estate occupiers, owners and

6 continents
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$2.6
billion in
annual revenue Contact

2
Colliers International <<Romania>>
Floreasca Business Park
billion square feet 169A Calea Floreasca, Building A, 7th floor
under management 014459 Bucharest, Romania
Phone: (40-21) 319 77 77

15,000 Fax: (40-21) 319 77 78

professionals
and staff

Copyright © 2018 Colliers International.


The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has
been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are
encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.
40 Colliers International Romania
Research & Forecast Report | 2018

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