Technical Memorandum

Finlays Fabulous Fictitious Fern Restoration on Niagara College Glendale

Project:
Campus

Mr. Ian D. Smith, B.SC, R.P.Bio

Client: Save the Fictitious Ferns Prepared By: Taylor Dilliott, BA
235 Veggie Way, Fonthill, ON
L0S 1R0

Subject: ArcGIS Spatial Analysis of Fern Restoration Points

Date: March 9, 2018 TD-GM Project #9318-02

1.0 Purpose & Background

TD Geospatial Management has been contracted by Save the Fictitious Ferns (StFF) to conduct a Multi-
Criteria Evaluation (MCE) to determine the most appropriate sites around the Niagara College Niagara-
on-the-Lake Campus for restoration of the endangered Osmunda Finlayensis, or Finlay’s Fabulous
Fictitious Fern.

Two methods of MCE were undertaken, a simple weighted overlay and a Fuzzy Overlay, both completed
using factors provided by the Niagara College horticultural group and from research conducted by the
ferns discoverer, Dr. Robert J. Botany. The four factors that contribute most to the growth and survival of
Finlay’s Fabulous Fern are: Slope, Aspect, Hillshade, Soil Type and planting density (Botany, 2011).

The study area for this project is a 1km by 2km area at the Niagara escarpment near the Niagara College
Niagara-on-the-Lake Campus.

2.0 Methodology
In order to properly determine the best location for the restoration of the fern, two different MCE analyses
were used: the weighted overlay and a fuzzy overlay. Each method creates rasters to identify appropriate
areas to reintroduce the ferns, these methods were then combined to create an ideal location layer at
their intersections.

1-109 Sanford Ave South, Hamilton, ON L8M 2G7

E: Taylor.J.Dilliott@gmail.com M: (289) 969-1847
Technical Memorandum
Finlay’s Fabulous Fern Restoration March 9, 2018

2.1 Data Preparation

Some data for this project was provided by the client in order to facilitate the analysis. Before undertaking
the initial weighted analysis some of these data had to be edited and corrected. The corrections
undertaken can be seen in Table 1, below.

Data Files Changes Made

GC_Campus_North_Mass_Points.shp
GC_Campus_South_Mass_Points.shp
GC_Campus_North_Breaklines.shp
GC_Campus_South_Breaklines.shp
GC_Area_Soils
Study Area.shp
Table 1- Data Corrections Undertaken
The two .shp files were merged to create a single
output file in the proper geodatabase named
GCMass_Points.shp
The two .shp files were merged to create a single
output in the proper geodatabase named
GCBreaklines.shp
The .shp file was exported to the proper
geodatabase as GCSoils.shp and had to be shifted
to the north in order to properly align with the
escarpment.
The study area .shp file had to be properly
projected into NAD_1983_UTM_Zone_17N

Once the data had been properly corrected and exported to the proper location, the breaklines and mass
points of the campus were used to create a TIN coverage of the area, which shows the morphology of the
area, easily showing elevations within the study area. The TIN coverage then had to be converted to a
raster using the “TIN to Raster” tool in order for the slope, aspect and hillshade of the area to be
determined. Within this tool the coordinate system was defined as NAD_1983_UTM_Zone_17N. As
mentioned the density of the plants is a major factor in plant growth, with the optimal growing conditions
being 1 plant per 16m2. In order to facilitate this, when converting the TIN to a raster the Sampling
Distance attribute was set to Cellsize 4, representing a 4x4 square on the raster. Based on the study area
size of 1km by 2km giving an area of 2 million meters squared, this gives a total of 125,000 spaces that are
16m2 and therefore potentially suitable for the reintroduction of Finlay’s Fabulous Fictitious Fern to the
area.

The GCSoils.shp file was also converted into a raster using the “Polygon to Raster” tool based on the soil
names, where again the Cellsize attribute was set to 4 to account for desired plant density. This was done
to properly display the soil types for reclassification. Figure 1, below, details the data preparation
undertaken before the reclassification and the analysis could be undertaken.

Page | 2
Technical Memorandum
Finlay’s Fabulous Fern Restoration March 9, 2018

Figure 1- Data Preparation Steps

2.2 Analysis
Once the data had been prepared and corrected as needed, the analysis is then carried out. As mentioned,
two different MCE Analyses were conducted which both created a new raster image of ideal planting
spots. These rasters were then combined to display the intersections of both ideal locations to create a
final raster which displays the best locations that fall within both scenarios. In order to conduct these
analyses, the hillshade, aspect and slope submodels had to be created from the BaseRaster. This was done
using the built in tools in ArcGIS, and in the case of the hillshade, parameters outlined in the Terms of
Reference for this project. Figure 2 details the creation of the submodels for these 3 factors.

Figure 2- Creation of Submodels for Aspect, Slope and Hillshade (With Variables)

Page | 3
Technical Memorandum
Finlay’s Fabulous Fern Restoration March 9, 2018

2.2.1 Weighted MCE Analysis

The first analysis undertaken was the basic weighted MCE, which gives a simple positive or negative
output for planting location. The first step in creating the weighted MCE was reclassifying the values of
the soil type, slope, hillshade and aspect rasters based on parameters outlined by Dr. Botany. The values
were assigned a new numerical value corresponding to their importance: 1 was the most suitable, 2 was
less suitable, 3 even less so, and so on. 0 was entered when the area defined in the raster would not be
suitable at all, such as for some of the soil types. Table 2 details the Reclassified numerical values assigned
to each factor and whether or not the plants will thrive.

Aspect Hillshade
Range New Value Growth Condition Range New Value Growth Condition
0° - 247° 0 No Growth 0° - 195° 0 No Growth
247°- 360° 1 Will Grow 195° - 235° 1 Heavy Growth
235° - 255° 0 No Growth

Slope Soil Type

Range New Value Growth Condition Type New Value Growth Condition
0° - 20° 0 No Growth Escarpment 1 Best Suited
20 ° - 65° 1 Sparse to full Growth Toledo 2 Reasonably Suited
65° - 90° 0 No Growth Cashel 2 Reasonably Suited
Beverly 0 Not Suited
Peel 0 Not Suited
Haldimand 0 Not Suited
Lincoln 0 Not Suited
Table 2- Reclassification Value Tables for Ranges/Types of each Factor

Once the reclassification had been completed, the variables could be input into the Weighted Overlay tool
and the Weighted Overlay analysis raster created. For the Weighted Overlay to be completed, the factors
must be weighted in accordance to their importance. Slope is twice as important as the Aspect, and three
times as important as both Soil Type and Hillshade (Botany, 2011). Determining the weights was
completed using a pairwise comparison matrix. Slope, as the most important was weighted at 47%, Aspect
was weighted at 23% and each of Hillshade and Soil Type were weighted at 15% for a total of 100%. Table
3 shows the matrix while Table 4 details the method for calculating weight percentage.

Slope Aspect Soil Type Hillshade Sum

Slope 1 0.5 .33 .33 2.16
Aspect 1 .66 .66
Soil Type 1 1
Hillshade 1
Table 3 - Pairwise Comparison Matrix

Variable Formula Relative Weighted Value

Slope (1) 1 / 2.16 0.4629 = 47%
Aspect (0.5) 0.5/2.16 0.2314 = 23%
Soil Type (0.33) 0.33/2.16 0.1527 = 15%
Hillshade (0.33) 0.33/2.16 0.1527 = 15%
Table 4 - Relative Weight Calculation Total 100%

Page | 4
Technical Memorandum
Finlay’s Fabulous Fern Restoration March 9, 2018

Once the relative weights were determined and input properly, the Weighted Overlay tool was run to
create the WeightedMCE raster which showed the best locations based on these particular factors. Figure
3 shows the process of conducting the weighted MCE analysis.

Figure 3 - Steps to create the WeightedMCE Raster

Figure 4 shows the raster created by the weighted analysis overlaid above the Niagara Escarpment and
Niagara College Niagara-on-the-Lake Campus, with the recommended areas for the fern in green. There
was determined to be a total of 316 highly suitable areas for fern planting, each represented by a pixel on
the map.

Page | 5
Technical Memorandum
Finlay’s Fabulous Fern Restoration March 9, 2018

Figure 4- Results of the Weighted MCE Analysis

Page | 6
Technical Memorandum
Finlay’s Fabulous Fern Restoration March 9, 2018

2.2.2 Fuzzy MCE Analysis

The second type of analysis undertaken for this project was a fuzzy type MCE analysis. As with the
weighted analysis the factors had to be reclassified based on predetermined ranges. The reclassification
for this analysis followed the same convention as in the weighted analysis. Table 5 shows the reclassified
values and whether or not the plant will thrive in that environment.

Aspect Hillshade
Range New Growth Condition Range New Value Growth Condition
Value
0° - 247° 0 No Growth 0° - 180° 3 Sparse Growth
247°-292.5° 2 Very Sparse 180° - 195° 2 Moderate Growth
Growth
292.5°-337.5° 1 Heavy Growth 195° - 220° 1 Heavy Growth
337.5°- 360° 2 Very Sparse 220° - 235° 2 Moderate Growth
Growth
235° - 255° 0 No Growth

Slope Soil Type

Range New Value Growth Condition Type New Value Growth Condition
0° - 20° 4 Very Sparse Growth Escarpment 1 Best Suited
20° - 35° 3 Sparse Growth Toledo 2 Reasonably Suited
35° - 45° 2 Moderate Growth Cashel 2 Reasonably Suited
45° - 55° 1 Heavy Growth Beverly 3 Poorly Suited
55° - 65° 2 Moderate Growth Peel 3 Poorly Suited
65° - 90° 4 Very Sparse Growth Haldimand 0 Not Suited
Lincoln 0 Not Suited
Table 5 - Fuzzy Reclassification Value Tables for Ranges/Types of each Factor

Once the reclassification is complete the output rasters are then used with the “Fuzzy Membership” tool
to calculate and model potentially well suited areas. Each of the factors need to be assigned a membership
type for the fuzzy analysis. The memberships for slope and hillshade were predetermined to be Gaussian
membership types while the aspect was predetermined to use a Near membership type, as per the Terms
of Reference, which only left the soil type class to be determined. Based on the way the variables are
presented, a Linear class type was determined to be the most functional since there was no regular
distribution, only dependence on a particular soil type. The Linear fuzzy membership class variables were
set to 0 for the minimum and 1 for the maximum, which created a raster with suitable soils and unsuitable
soils.

After completing the fuzzy membership, the output rasters are used with the “Fuzzy Overlay” tool to
create a model, named Fuzzy_Overlay, indicating areas that range from very well suited to not at all suited
for reintroduction of Finlay’s Fabulous Fictitious Fern. The Overlay Type field was set to the “AND” variable
as the project was only interested in the areas that met the highest amount of the criteria. Areas with a
value in the overlay below 0.9 were not considered to be suitable for fern restoration, this leaves two
value ranges, with 0.97 and above being the most ideal areas and 0.90 to 0.97 being moderately well
suited. After the raster was created, it was reclassified once more into the FuzzyFinal raster in order to
properly display the ideal areas, with 0.97 set to a value of 1 and 0.90-0.97 set to a value of 2.

Page | 7
Technical Memorandum
Finlay’s Fabulous Fern Restoration March 9, 2018

The process of reclassification, fuzzy membership and fuzzy overlay creation can be seen in Figure 5,
below.

(MsSmall)

Figure 5 – Steps to Create the FuzzyFinal Raster.

Figure 6 shows the results of the Fuzzy Overlay analysis reclassification with the most suitable areas in
green and the moderately suitable areas in yellow. The fuzzy analysis yielded a total of 1565 areas that
would be highly suitable and 443 areas that would be moderately suitable for the reintroduction of the
fern.

Page | 8
Technical Memorandum
Finlay’s Fabulous Fern Restoration March 9, 2018

Figure 6- Fuzzy Overlay Analysis Results

Page | 9
Technical Memorandum
Finlay’s Fabulous Fern Restoration March 9, 2018

2.2.3 Weighted and Fuzzy Intersection

While any location within the best areas defined by either the weighted or fuzzy analysis would be suitable
for the 110 plants to be reintroduced, the definitive best areas would be those where the weighted
analysis and fuzzy analysis intersect. In order to determine where these areas are located, the “Raster
Calculator” tool was used.

Since the best areas in both the weighted and fuzzy analysis were given a value of 1, the calculator simply
took only the areas where the values equal to 1 overlapped. The equation within the calculator is
presented as ("%FuzzyFinal%" == 1) & ("%WeightedMCE%" == 1). This yields a total of 119 areas that are
ideally suited to the proper growth of Finlay’s Fabulous Fictitious Fern.

The process of creating the intersection overlay can be seen in Figure 7.

Figure 7- Creation of the Intersection_Overlay Raster and Formula used.

The resultant raster from the raster calculator can be seen in Figure 8 with the ideal locations represented
in green.

Page | 10
Technical Memorandum
Finlay’s Fabulous Fern Restoration March 9, 2018

Figure 8- Intersection_Overlay Raster showing 119 Ideal Locations for Fern Planting

Page | 11
Technical Memorandum
Finlay’s Fabulous Fern Restoration March 9, 2018

3.0 Results and Recommendations

Over the course of this analysis, TD Geospatial Management conducted two separate MCE analyses and
an intersection of the results from those analyses. The analyses were conducted based on four primary
location factors outlined by Dr. R.J. Botany: the slope, aspect, hillshade and soil type.

As detailed above, the weighted analysis yielded a total of 316 suitable areas, the fuzzy yielded 1565 areas
that would be highly suitable and 443 areas that would be moderately suitable and the intersection of the
two yielded 119 locations.

Given the total of 110 plants to be reintroduced, based on the study conducted and detailed above, it is
strongly recommended to Mr. Ian D. Smith and the other members of StFF that all 110 plants be
introduced within the 119 areas defined by the final intersection analysis. However if more of a spread
for the plants is desired, any additional areas identified within the weighted or fuzzy analysis as being
highly suitable would also suffice and the plants would likely survive, if not thrive.

In order to achieve a higher accuracy of study, it is recommended that the soil type data is re-evaluated
as the raw data had to be manually corrected to fit properly in the study area maps and breaklines. If the
data is able to be permanently corrected, the same methods detailed here could be used to repeat the
analyses.

4.0 Bibliography
Botany, R. J. (2011). The Life Cycle of Osmunda Finlayensis and Associated Fern Assemblages. The
Endangered Fictitious Fern Review, 19-31.

Page | 12