City of Bellingham Hazard Mitigation Planning

Katie Faulkner | Alison Kolberg | Mercedes Stroeve

Agency Brief
Whatcom County is in the process of updating their 2011 Hazard Mitigation Plan and is exploring using
tools like critical area planning, comprehensive planning, and transfer of development rights to avoid and
mitigate for hazards. The University of Washington Institute for Hazards Mitigation Planning and
Research (IHMP) is currently assisting Whatcom County with the research of these planning tools. This
project complements IHMP’s work by identifying areas in Whatcom County for the IHMP project to
examine in greater detail and using the City of Bellingham as a case study to look at how hazards, zoning,
and land use tools interact.

We start by identifying the hazards present in Whatcom County and creating a heat map of those hazards.
Our second map connects hazards to Bellingham’s undeveloped parcels to identify which parcels are at
risk of multiple hazards. Then we provide background on the hazards and some possible mitigation tools.
The final section of this report explores the zoning of Bellingham’s undeveloped and hazardous parcels.

Our analysis found that most of the areas at risk of multiple hazards are outside of cities, urban growth
boundaries, and urban growth boundary reserves. There are large parts of Bellingham, Ferndale, Lynden,
and Blaine that are not at risk of any hazards. But there are also large areas of Sumas, Nooksack,
Ferndale, Bellingham and Blaine’s urban growth boundary that are at risk of one or more hazard.
Nooksack, Everson, and Sumas all have areas where the 100 year floodplain, volcano and liquefaction
risk overlap.

An examination of the city of Bellingham and the its urban growth areas found a risk of fires,
liquefaction, shoreline stability issues, tsunami, steep slopes, and flooding. Undeveloped parcels at risk of
3 or more hazards are located along the shoreline, southern boundary of Bellingham, and the eastern
boundary of Bellingham and its’ UGA.

Since there are several areas in Whatcom County and Bellingham that have overlapping hazard risks, we
recommend that efforts to mitigate risk be focused in those areas. Because purchase of development rights
programs and rezoning have been successful in Whatcom County in the past, we suggest that Whatcom
County and its cities explore using these tools for hazard mitigation. We also recommend that the IHMP
use the Cities of Nooksack and Everson as a case study in future work to demonstrate how land use
planning tools could be used to mitigate for multiple hazard risks.
Problem Definition
Whatcom County is in the process of updating their 2011 Hazard Mitigation Plan and is exploring using
tools like critical area planning, comprehensive planning, and transfer of development rights to avoid and
mitigate for hazards. The University of Washington Institute for Hazards Mitigation Planning and
Research (IHMP) is currently assisting Whatcom County with the research of these planning tools. Our
group project will complement this work by identifying areas in Whatcom County for the IHMP project
to examine in greater detail. We will also use the City of Bellingham as a case study to look at how
hazards, zoning, and land use tools interact.

We will start by creating a heat map of Whatcom County’s hazards to find areas that are prone to multiple
hazards. Next our project will focus on undeveloped properties at risk for hazards in the city of
Bellingham and Bellingham’s Urban Growth Area (UGA). Variables include local hazards, parcels,
zoning, and development regulations. We hypothesize that owners of undeveloped properties located in a
city or UGA may want/expect to develop their properties to maximize their investment. But parcels in
hazardous areas are not appropriate for many types of development. We will identify these properties and
the possible mechanisms (regulation or financial incentives) that can keep them from being developed.
We also assume that the resources for taking a property out of development are limited, so we will
suggest strategies to prioritize these limited resources.

Variables
● Hazards: flooding, earthquake (tsunami and liquefaction), landslides (shoreline stability and
slope), wildfires, mines
● Development potential

Project Question
Our two main questions are:
1. Which areas of Whatcom County should the IHMP examine further?
2. Which undeveloped parcels in Bellingham are located in potentially hazardous areas?
a. How are these parcels zoned?
b. If a parcel is subject to a hazard, what regulatory or financial strategies can be used to
promote responsible use or development?
c. Where should limited resources be focused?

Methodology
Summary:
● Create hazard heat map to identify areas for Institute for Hazards Mitigation Planning and
Research to study indepth next quarter
● Create a map of Bellingham’s undeveloped and hazardous parcels
● Profile hazards and options for mitigation
● Explore the zoning of Bellingham’s undeveloped and hazardous parcels
Geospatial Analysis:

Prepare Hazard Layers:

● National Flood Hazard Layer
○ Select 1-percent-annual-chance flood event
● Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Hazard
○ Select High and Extreme (there is no moderate risk in Whatcom County)
○ Clip to Whatcom County
● Tsunami Inundation
○ Clip to Whatcom County
● Liquefaction Susceptibility
○ Select moderate, moderate to high, and high
● Geological Hazards (percent slope)
○ Select slope 15%-35% and above 35% for Whatcom County heat map
○ Select slope 35% for Bellingham undeveloped parcels map
■ A slopes above 15%-35% and above 35% are considered risks factors for
landslides in Whatcom County’s Critical area ordinance, but only slopes greater
than 40% are considered a risk factor in Bellingham’s CAO
● Geological Hazards (mine)
○ Select mine
● Marine Shoreline Stability
○ Select modified, unstable slope, unstable-old slide, unstable-recent slide

Heat Map:
● Use polygon to raster tool to turn the hazard vector layers listed above into raster files
○ Each cell a value of 1
● Use mosaic to new raster tool merge the separate hazard rasters into a new raster dataset

Bellingham Undeveloped Parcels:

● Select parcels within the city of Bellingham or Bellingham’s urban growth areas and export a
new layer
● Use the Structures Building layer to select by location Bellingham parcels that intersect with
buildings, and then switch selections to find undeveloped parcels. Export to a new layer as
undeveloped parcels.
● Add columns to undeveloped parcels layer for flooding, fire, tsunami inundation, liquefaction
susceptibility, slope, mine, shoreline stability
● Add a total hazards present column to parcels layer
● Use Select by Location to select parcels that overlap with hazards and use field calculator to
populate hazards columns with yes or no (1 or 0)
● Use field calculator to populate the total hazards column with the added results of the hazard
columns
Bellingham Land-use Zoning:
● Perform a spatial join with undeveloped parcels with Land Use Sub-Areas (from Bellingham’s
COB_planning Geo Database)
● Change symbology to category of land use descriptions
● Use the American Planning Association’s Land Base Classification Standards (LBCS) to
determine the colors for different zones
● (next step) narrow the zoning classifications to (Commercial, Industrial, Multi-family, Single
family, urban mix, open space, public, institutional) - add a field ‘New_Zoning_Class’ to
reclassify and simplify zoning descriptions.

Data Dictionary
● National Flood Hazard Layer (S_FLD_HAZ_AR.shp)
○ Source: Federal Emergency Management Agency
○ Attribute: S_Fld_Haz_Ar - Location and attributes flood insurance risk zones shown on
the FIRM (This will tell us the 1-percent-annual-chance flood event, the 0.2-percent-
annual-chance flood event)
● Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Hazard (wuifirehaz.shp)
○ Source: Washington Department of Natural Resources
○ Attribute: Hazard_Rat (low, moderate, high, extreme)
● Tsunami Inundation
○ Source: Washington Department of Natural Resources
○ Attribute: Seismic Event Scenario (cascadia scenario 1A, cascadia scenario 1A with
asperity)
● Liquefaction Susceptibility
○ Source: Washington Department of Natural Resources
○ Attribute: Liquefaction Susceptibility (High, Moderate to high, Moderate, Low to
moderate, Low, Very low to low, Very low, Bedrock, Peat, Ice, Water)
● Geological Hazards (geo_wcpds_slope_fan_mine.shp)
○ Source: Whatcom County
○ Attributes:
■ percent slope
■ mine
● Current Zoning
○ Source: Whatcom County
○ Attribute: WCPLAN (AGRICULTURE, C-FOREST, CITY, FEDERAL, MAJ/PORT-
IND-UGA, MRL, PUBLIC-REC, R-FOREST, RURAL, RURAL BUSINESS, RURAL
COMMUNITY, RURAL N-HOOD, RURAL TOURISM, SMALL-TOWN, UGA,
UGAR, WATER)
● Marine Shoreline Stability
○ Source: Whatcom County
○ Attribute: SLP_Class (modified, unstable slope, unstable-old slide, unstable-recent slide)
● Land Tax Parcel Polygons
○ Source: City of Bellingham
 ● Structures Buildings
○ Source: City of Bellingham
● City Boundary
○ Source: Whatcom County
○ Attribute: Jurisdiction
● COB - Planning
○ Source: Bellingham
○ Attribute: Land Use Sub-Areas, Neighborhoods, Zoning Lines

Project Findings
Whatcom County Hazard Heat Map
Bellingham Undeveloped Properties
# of Hazards Parcels Hazard Parcels

0 2994 Flood 301

1 331 Liquefaction 223

2 231 Fire 181

3 49 Shoreline 116

4 13 Mine 95

>35% Slope 47

Tsunami 29

7. Analysis & Interpretation

Map Analysis

Whatcom County Hazard Heat Map

This map shows that most of the areas at risk of multiple hazards are outside of cities, urban growth
boundaries, and urban growth boundary reserves. There are large parts of Bellingham, Ferndale, Lynden,
and Blaine that are not at risk of any hazards. But there are also large areas of Sumas, Nooksack,
Ferndale, Bellingham and Blaine’s urban growth boundary that are at risk of one or more hazard.
Nooksack, Everson, and Sumas all have areas where the 100 year floodplain, volcano and liquefaction
risk overlap (See appendix).

Bellingham Undeveloped Properties

The city of Bellingham and its urban growth areas are at risk for fires, liquefaction, shoreline stability
issues, tsunami, steep slopes, and flooding. Parcels at risk of 3 or more hazards are located along the
shoreline, southern boundary of Bellingham, and the eastern boundary of Bellingham and its’ UGA.

Bellingham Hazard Profiles

Risk of Landslides (Steep Slopes & Marine Shoreline Stability)

Steep slopes contribute to the risk of landslides, which are the movement of rock, soil and/or debris
downward. Other contributing factors of landslides include heavy rainfall, erosion of the toe of a slope,
ground shaking, and human action. Impacts of a landslide include the loss of life, destruction of buildings,
damage to infrastructure, and environmental damage.1 Landslides are considered a geologic hazard and

1
Washington Hazard Mitigation Plan
are regulated by Bellingham’s Critical Area Ordinance. (Whatcom County Division of Emergency
Management, 2015)

Mitigation:
● Limit or eliminate new development in high risk areas
● Direct development to areas of the parcel that are not at risk
● Have a qualified professional assess the risks and recommend how to mitigate construction
● Educate existing property owners about the risk
● Buyouts
● Keep existing vegetation to help anchor soils and absorb water
● Maintain drainage by sending water away from the steep slope

Flood
Flooding occurs when water overflows onto land that is normally dry due to an unusual amount of
rainfall. Land in the FEMA designated 100-year floodplain has a 1% chance of flooding in any given
year. The impacts of a flood can include damage to structures, crops, infrastructure, and utilities. Flooding
is the hazard of greatest concern to Whatcom County because of the frequency at which it occurs. 2 The
City of Bellingham currently participates in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). (Whatcom
County Division of Emergency Management, 2015)

Mitigation:
● Join the NFIP Community Rating System (CRS) and implement floodplain projects that go
beyond the minimum NFIP requirements
● Land use planning to decrease risk
● Building Codes
● Limit or restrict development in floodplains
● Elevate or retrofit structures
● Preserve floodplains as open space
● Education

Liquefaction
Liquefaction is the loss of strength in sediments that are loosely-packed and water-logged, in response to
strong shaking, typically caused by earthquakes. (Whatcom County Division of Emergency Management,
2015)

Mitigation Options:
● Building codes
● Land use planning to decrease risk
● Education

2
Whatcom Hazard Mitigation Plan
Fire
A Wildland Urban interface fire happens around forest or grassland area that is also near isolated homes,
subdivisions, and small communities. They can be caused by human activity or can be natural in
origin.Fires that occur on steep slopes could increase the chance of landslides or mudslides in the winter
months. (Whatcom County Division of Emergency Management, 2015)
Mitigation Options:
● Land use planning to decrease risk
● Fire-Resistant Construction
● Defensible space
● Education

Mines
Bellingham has abandoned underground mines that are at risk for subsidence and collapse. Subsidence
happens when the overlying ground slowly settles, and a mine collapse can cause a sinkhole. Bother
subsidence and collapse could lead to the damage of structures built over an abandon mine and possibly
injury or death. Mines are considered a geologic hazard and are regulated by Bellingham’s Critical Area
Ordinance. (Whatcom County Division of Emergency Management, 2015)

Mitigation Options:
● Limit or eliminate new development in high risk areas
● Direct development to areas of the parcel that are not at risk
● Have a qualified professional assess the risks and recommend how to mitigate construction
● Educate existing property owners about the risk
● Buyouts

Tsunami
Tsunami is a series of traveling waves of extremely long length generated by earthquakes occurring
below or near the ocean floor. Underwater volcanic eruptions and landslides can also generate tsunamis.
(Whatcom County Division of Emergency Management, 2015)
Mitigation Options:
● Educate the population about the risk they face
● Establish evacuation plans
● If possible don’t locate critical facilities in the risk areas
● Community Rating System (CRS) Incentives
● Design and construct buildings to reduce damage caused by coastal flooding and tsunamis

Hazard Mitigation Tools

Transfer Development Rights (TDR)

TDR enables the owner of a receiving property to purchase the right to build extra density from the
sending property owner, which removes the right to develop the sending property. A variation of this
concept is Density Transfer Credits, which allows a property owner to buy credits for extra development
from a development acquisition fund. While the County has had a TDR to move development out of the
Lake Whatcom Watershed since the late 1990s, it is rarely used. There is also a “fee-in-lieu” program that
gives developers higher densities for paying into the Lake Whatcom Watershed Property Acquisition
Program, but no one has taken advantage of this program. For a program like this to be success in
Bellingham or Whatcom County it is likely density thresholds would have to be reduced in receiving
areas because there currently isn’t a sufficient demand for extra density.3 (County and Cities’ Planners
Group, 2015)

Purchase Development Rights (PDR)

PDR programs buy the development rights to property to keep that property from being built upon. These
programs are mostly used to preserve environmentally sensitive areas or farmland. Whatcom county
currently has a PDR program that has spent $5.7 million to retire development rights for 826 areas of
rural and agricultural land for as of March 2015. The City of Bellingham also has a PDR program with
the goal of protecting the Lake Whatcom watershed. The main constraint for a program like this is the
high cost of purchasing development rights and administration. Similar options include buyouts and
easements. (County and Cities’ Planners Group, 2015)

Rezoning
Areas at risk for hazards could be rezoned to a use more appropriate for that risk. A residential area could
be rezoned to an agricultural area, or down zoned to allow for less density. For example, in 2011 and
2012 Whatcom County rezoned around 6,000 acres of rural land to less intensive uses or densities. Doing
so removed the potential for about 3,000 new lots.

Setbacks/Clustering
If a section of a parcel is at risk of a hazard but another section is not, the property owner could be
required to place development away from the hazardous area.

Zoning of the Parcels at Risk for Hazards

Using the undeveloped parcel data and Bellingham’s zoning data, we focused in on potential future
residential development at risk in Bellingham. The neighborhood zoning regulations we looked into were
for multi-family, single-family, and urban village development. We narrowed into neighborhoods and
zone blocks that have the highest cluster of undeveloped parcels based and organized based on the
number of hazards. We have profiled risk scenarios using given regulations for that neighborhood zone
and the overlaying hazards. In these scenarios we were determining whether these regulations are
protecting or leaving homes more vulnerable. Within zoning regulations, there are three areas where
hazard mitigation efforts can be placed; Special Conditions, Prerequisite Considerations, Special
Regulations.

Special Conditions addresses a potential problem in the area that may need early consultation prior
construction. There are two types of special conditions; special districts and special concerns. Special
districts address citywide concerns that apply to a particular area, for instance the Shoreline Management

3
Whatcom County Growth Management Tools
Program. Special concerns address site-specific concerns that require development projects to be
reviewed as well as receive discretionary approval or be not exempt from SEPA. 4

Prerequisite considerations, like special conditions, identify the concerns of an area and give
recommendations on what should or needs to occur prior to some to development. This sections is
typically used to address necessary capital improvements.

Special Regulations apply to specific lots modify or supplement the standard regulations for the general
use type and use qualifier.5 These regulations can encourage infill development, more efficient use of the
remaining developable land, and help protect environmentally sensitive areas.

Zone Type # of Parcels

Unzoned 233

Single Family 148

Multi Family 28

Urban Village 64

Industrial (all scales/types) 31

Public 33

Recreation/open space 5

UR 1 unit per 5 acres 44

UR 3 unit per acres 2

Commercial 20

4
Chapter 20.06 ZONING CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM
http://www.codepublishing.com/WA/Bellingham/html/Bellingham20/Bellingham2006.html
5
Chapter 20.00 ZONING TABLES
http://www.codepublishing.com/WA/Bellingham/?Bellingham20/Bellingham2000.html
URMX 6-10 units per acre 6

URMX 6-12 units per acre 2

Water 6

MULTI FAMILY SCOPE

The residential multi general use type is primarily intended to
accommodate the highest concentrations of people within the
city. Its designations include duplex, mix-use, and planned.
Neighborhoods we are focusing on are Birchwood and
Meridian.

# of Hazards # of Parcels Types of Hazards

1 27 12 mines, 10
shoreline, 5 flood

2 1 Mine, flood

# of Neighborhood Use Prerequisite Special

hazards Name Qualifier Special Conditions Considerations Regulations

Clearing; flood;
Dedication of 30 feet of
wetlands; protection
right-of-way for Cory St.
of Spring Creek
between Prince and
Planned corridor; buffer;
1 Meridian Kellogg. None
neighborhood parks
 contribution.

2 Birchwood
Shoreline; Roeder
Duplex right-of-way Improved access None

Meridian Lot 23: All flooding hazards.
This lot specifies a concern for flooding under
special conditions. Ways to further identify
recommended procedural actions are to include
National Flood Insurance Program regulations
and/or NFIP community rating system under
special regulations.
Birchwood lot 14: All mine hazards with some
flooding.
Mine hazard is not stated in the zoning
information. Though the undeveloped parcels are
small, mines and site planning ought be addressed
under special conditions as a precaution.
Single Family Scope
The residential single is primarily intended to
accommodate families desiring to live within
neighborhoods with low density. Its designations
include detached and cluttered. Neighborhoods we are
focusing on are Birchwood, Silver Beach, and South.

# of Hazards # of Parcels Type of Hazards

1 46 17 mine, 7
liquefaction, 5 slope,
17 flood

2 91 ALL liquefaction, 88
fire, 3 flood

3 11 (ALL fire), (all

liquefaction), 8 slope,
3 flood

# of Neighborhood Special Prerequisite

hazards Name Use Qualifier Conditions Considerations Special Regulations

The mixed designation is intended to

allow agriculture and the raising of farm
animals; provided, that they are not a
commercial endeavor. The latter must
have the approval of the
1 Birchwood
Detached, Bellingham/Whatcom County health
mixed none none department.
North Shore must be
improved to the
recommended
standards and a
drainage plan must be
Clearing; implemented for the
2 Silver Beach
Detached, traffic; water entire area; sanitary
cluttered service sewer. None
Clearing;
wetlands;
flood;
upgrading of Development of
3 South
Detached, water service; sanitary sewer
cluttered shoreline. service. none
Birchwood lot 1: all mine
hazards.
Mine hazard, though present
through the majority of this lot,
is not stated in the zoning
information. Mines and site
planning ought be addressed
under special conditions.
Rezoning should also be
considered as well applying an
undeveloped ‘buffer’ around the
hazard location to avoid
potential collateral damage.
Silver Beach lot 4: all
liquefaction and fire hazards.
This lot is use is for single
family homes and the street
layout is zoned for both
detached and clustered homes.
The cluster layout of homes can
be hazardous with fire,
especially if housing is built out
of combustible materials like
wood shingle roofs. Fire could
spread quicker and cause a lot
more damage. Ideally this area
would want to have building
codes to make housing more
flame retardant and to place
homes further apart to mitigate
fire hazard. This ought to be
specified in Prerequisite
considerations.
South lot 9: high concentration
of fire and liquefaction
hazards with small mix of
slope and flooding.
This lot has similar risks to
Silver Beach lot 4. However,
this lot is located on liquefaction
putting potential residents at
greater risk. Fire compromises
landscape that holds together
soil. If the vegetation and soil
are further compromised, land
erosion can occur leaving
development far more
vulnerable in the scenario of an
earthquake.
 Urban Village
Urban Villages’ accommodate a compatible mix of
residential, commercial, light industrial, public, and
institutional land uses. The neighborhoods we are
focusing on are City Center and Fairhaven.
# of Hazards # of Parcels Type of Hazards

1 37 2 mine, 17
shoreline, 17
flood, 1 slope
2 16 3 liquefaction 15
shoreline, 2
tsunami, 2 slope,
10 flood
3 10 All liquefaction,
shoreline, tsunami
4 1 Liquefaction,
shoreline,
tsunami, flood

# of Neighborhood Use Special Prerequisite

hazards Name Qualifier Density Conditions Considerations Special Regulations

See BMC
20.37.300,
Fairhaven
1/2
urban
Fairhaven Fairhaven village none none none
See BMC
20.37.400
through
20.37.480,
waterfront
district
3/4
Waterfront urban
city center District village shoreline none none
Fairhaven lot 1: mix of shoreline and flooding
hazards.
This neighborhood falls under the Shoreline
Master Program and could be stated under special
conditions being that it is classified as a special
district.
City Center lot 6: mix of liquefaction, shoreline,
and tsunami hazards with a small risk of slope.
This lot experience the highest overlay of hazards.
In the event of an earthquake, liquefaction would
collapse development and the drop in landscape
would cause a tsunami wave. Revisit zoning to
keep development from occurring in these high
hazard areas. We would recommend providing a
recommendation under special conditions and
encourage to make these high hazard areas open
public space.

Analysis
These maps shows that there is far more undeveloped single family zoning then there are in multi-family
and urban village zoning. As assumed, all of the undeveloped residential parcels are located in the outer
neighborhoods. These zoning tables share little information on the hazards in these zones. Hazards such
as flooding and shoreline were present in some lots special conditions, however this information was not
present in all the lots that face these type of hazards. Additionally, there were some undesirable user
qualifiers for the areas hazard risk. The main takeaway from our analysis is that unstated regulations or
concerns in the zoning tables can potentially lead to poor and unsafe future development in this area. We
would encourage incorporating these hazard risks and concerns within Special Conditions, Prerequisite
Considerations, Special Regulations.

Recommendations
Since there are several areas in Whatcom County and Bellingham that have overlapping hazard risks, we
recommend that efforts to mitigate risk be focused in those areas. Because purchase of development rights
programs and rezoning have been successful in Whatcom County in the past, we suggest that Whatcom
County and its cities explore using these tools explicating for hazard mitigation. We also recommend that
the IHMP use the Cities of Nooksack and Everson as a case study in future work to demonstrate how land
use planning tools could be used to mitigate for multiple hazard risks.
Appendix
1. Nooksack and Everson Hazards
2. Sumas Hazards

3. Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan Areas

Sources:
1. COUNTY AND CITIES’ PLANNERS GROUP. (2015, March). Whatcom County Growth
Management Tools. Retrieved from http://www.whatcomcounty.us/DocumentCenter/View/7790
2. Washington State. (2013). 2013 Washington State Enhanced State Hazard Mitigation Plan.
Retrieved from http://mil.wa.gov/uploads/pdf/HAZ-MIT-
PLAN/Element_A_Planning_Process.pdf
3. Whatcom County Division of Emergency Management. (2015). Whatcom County Natural
Hazards Mitigation Plan. Retrieved from http://www.whatcomready.org/preparedness/whatcom-
natural-hazards-mitigation-plan-update/
4. Code Publishing Company. (2016). Bellingham Municipal Code. Retrieved from
http://www.codepublishing.com/WA/Bellingham/