Photo by: Brian Liutama

Indonesian Economic and

Capital Market Development
April 2018
Economic and Analysis Unit
Research and Development Division

www.idx.co.id Indonesia Stock Exchange @indonesiastockexchange @IDX_BEI 1

1
Indonesia’s Potentials

2
Good News from Indonesia (1/2)
Economic and capital market potentials
Regional Comparison Indonesia’s capital market potentials

#1 in ASEAN

GDP Nominal1
(the only G20 member) Number of Listed Issuers4
#6 in Asia

USD 1011 B
±104,000 ltd./inc.
getting bank loan
±120 SOEs,
Approximately equivalent
to three ASEAN countries ±750 subsidiaries

±26 millions
SMEs

#1 in ASEAN

Working age
Indonesia’s population2
262 Million #3 in Asia
Number of Investors
MY
Economic Projection
TH
Indonesia’s economy rank (GDP to PPP)3
USD10.50 T
USD5.42 T SG

USD3.03 T PH
±600,000
(less than 1% of
#5 #4 ID population)
#9
Huge potential growth of investors
2016 2030 2050
Replacing Germany, Replacing Japan
surpassing Rusia and Brazil
1,2 IMF (September 2017, estimation) 4Credit Burau, Bank Indonesia (Dec 2015), SOEs Ministry (2015), Economic Census (2016)
3PwC analysis for projections to 2050
Good News from Indonesia (2/2)
Investment and business stand

Improvement in 72nd
ease of doing
business
(EODB)1 91st
Top destination
Investment grade
• S&P (BBB-) #3 for attracting
investors*3
• Moody’s (Baa3) *after China & India
• Fitch (BBB)*
World’s best
*Improved from BBB-
in Dec 2017 #2 country to
invest in2

1World Bank (Ease of Doing Business Index for 2018; 190 countries)
2US News – Best Countries to Invest In, 2018 3The Economist – Asia Business Outlook Survey 2017
Economic Updates

5
 3.4
3.2
3.6

200
250
300
350
400
450
500
World
3.7
Mar-16 3.7

Apr-16 4.3
4.3
May-16 4.6

2015

Market
4.9

Emerging
Jun-16 5.0
Jul-16 2.0
1.8
Aug-16 2.1
Sep-16 1.9

Euro Area
1.7

Source: IMF, Bloomberg

Oct-16
2016

4.9
Nov-16 4.9
5.2
Dec-16 5.2

ASEAN-5
5.3
Jan-17
2.9
Feb-17 1.5
2.2
Economic Growth Forecast

US
Mar-17
2017

2.3
Apr-17 1.9

May-17 1.1
1.0
Jun-17 1.5

US Dollar Index (RHS)

Japan
0.7
Jul-17 0.8
Aug-17 8.0
2018F

Global Commodities & US Dollar Index

7.1
Sep-17 India
6.7
Oct-17 7.4
7.8
Global Economic Updates

Nov-17 6.9
Dec-17 6.7

GSCI Index (LHS)

6.8
China

Jan-18 6.5
6.3
2019F

Feb-18
4.9
Mar-18 5.0
5.2

92
96

90
94
98
5.3

100
104

102
Indonesia

5.5
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0

-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0

1800
2200
2600

2000
2400
2800

Mar-16 Mar-16
Apr-16 Apr-16
May-16 May-16
Jun-16 Jun-16
China
Japan

Jul-16 Jul-16
Aug-16 Aug-16
Global Inflation

Sep-16 Sep-16
Oct-16 Oct-16
Nov-16 Nov-16
Dec-16 Dec-16
US

Jan-17
Jan-17
Feb-17
Feb-17
Indonesia

Mar-17
Apr-17 Mar-17
May-17 Apr-17
Jun-17 May-17
Jul-17 Jun-17
Aug-17 Jul-17
Sep-17 Aug-17
Thailand
Eurozone

Oct-17 Sep-17
S&P Index (LHS)

Nov-17 Oct-17
Dec-17 Nov-17
Jan-18 Dec-17
Feb-18
US Indicators: S&P 500 and US Gov Bond Yield 10Y

Jan-18
Mar-18
India

Feb-18
1
1.3
US Govt Bond 10 Year (RHS) 1.9
2.2
2.8

1.6
2.5
3.1

Mar-18
Malaysia

6
 Current Global Issues : Trump’s Trade Wars

Source: Washington Post, The Minneapolis Star-Tribune, MN, The Arizona Star, Tucson, AZ 7
 U.S and China Trade Relations
The widening trade gap The U.S imports these products from China
USD Billion

600

500

Imports from China

400

300
China imports these products from the U.S

200

Exports to China
100

0
2004

2012
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003

2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

2013
2014
2015
2016
2017

Source: www.barrons.com , data from United States International Trade Commission 8

 Products under proposed tariff

The Chinese products targeted The U.S products targeted

by the Trump administration by the Chinese Government

Other targeted goods Mineral fuels Other targeted goods

Cereals
Vehicles Aluminium Pharmaceutical products $1.7 B $1.3 B Chemical products
$2.1 B products Aircraft Cotton
$1.3 B
Furniture & bedding Soap
Articles of iron or steel Tobacco
Optical Plastics
instruments
Railway locomotives $3.3 B
Albuminoidal substances
$6.4 B Organic chemicals Oil seeds Organic chemicals
Machinery Iron & steel $12.4 B Residues & waste
$19.5 B
Rubber articles Preparations of vegetables
Arms & ammunition Rubber articles
Ships Vehicles Beverages
Electronic $8.7 B
$ 13.5 B Articles of base metal Vegetables products
Inorganic chemicals Photographic goods
Chemical products Milling industry products
Clocks & watches Aircraft

Source: www.barrons.com, data from United States International Trade Commission and Ministry of Commerce of China, trade value of 2017 9
Trump Tax Reform Bill
Income Tax Current Law G.O.P* Bill Notes
Top Bracket Seven Seven, lower after all
39,6% 37%
Top Rate Starts At $426,700 / $480,050 $500,000 / $600,000 The bill would lower individual tax rates over all. But
(single/couples) (single/couples) comply with Senate budget rules, the individual tax cuts
would expire after 2025.
Alternative income tax
Alternative Minimum Keeps, but increases
calculations for high-income
Tax exemptions so fewer will pay it
taxpayers

Other individual taxes Current Law G.O.P* Bill Notes

Penalty for not having health Eliminates The provision, estimates to save over $300 billion, would
Individual mandate
insurance Starts in 2019 severely weaken the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare)
Top rate of 40% on estates above Increases threshold to estates
Estate tax
$5.6 million above $11.2 million
Top rate of 23.8% (including net
Capital gains No change
investment income tax)

Corporate taxes Current Law G.O.P* Bill Notes

The largest tax cut in the bill would be permanent, as
Top corporate tax rate 35% 21%
would other corporate tax changes
New investment Complex rules for deducting over Five years of full expensing, then
purchases many years phased out over five more years
The bill raised money by speeding up the effective dates
Can deduct net operating losses Limits the deduction to 80% of
Net operating losses for these last two provisions, which were included in the
from income in other years taxable income
Senate bill
Research and
Would need to be written off
development Can be immediately deducted
gradually
expenditures

*G.O.P = Grand Old Party as refers to Republican Party

Source: New York Times

10
 Indonesia Economy
March 2018

+5.07%
Real Economic
Growth 2017
+3.40% (yoy) -1.47% (ytd)
(Annual, yoy) Headline Inflation IDR/USD
Target 2018: (3.5%±1%) IDR13,768

4.25% Trade Surplus/Deficit Foreign Reserve

(lowest ever)
BI 7-Day
-USD 872 mn* USD126 bn
RR Rate as of Feb 2018 -3.22% (ytd)

Source: Bank Indonesia, Statistics Indonesia

11
 Indonesian Credit Ratings
Ratings by Ratings by
S&P and Fitch Moody’s

BBB+ Issuance of govt bonds

Investment
Investment

BBB+ Economic Reprofiling VR & HB, Issuance of govt Issuance of govt via regular auction,
Baa1
crisis Recapitalization Asset-Bond Swap, & bonds via regular bonds via regular buyback program, debt Baa

grade
grade

of banks issuance of long-term

BBB
BBB 1998 government bond
auction, Buyback
program
auction, buyback
program, & debt
swtiching, &
diversification of 1
Baa2
Baa
swtiching instruments
BBB-
BBB- 2
Baa3
BB+ Ba1
Ba1
BB
Ba2
Ba2
BB- Ba3
Ba3
B+
B+ B1
S&P upgrades rating B1
Non Investment

BB to BBB- (19 Mei 2017)

Non Investment
B2
B2
Moody's upgrades rating
B-
grade

B- to Ba1 (17 Jan 2011)

B3
Moody’s upgrades rating B3

grade
to Baa3 (18 Jan 2012)
CCC+
CCC
Caa1
+
CCC
S&P downgrades Caa2
CCC- rating to Selective
S&P upgrades rating to
Default but revises
2 days later BB+ (8 Apr 2011) Fitch upgrades rating Caa3
CC to BBB (20 Dec 2017)
CaCa
R/C
R/C
Fitch upgrades rating to
CC
SD/DD BBB- (15 Des 2011)

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Fitch S&P Moody’s

(right-hand scale)

Source: DJPPR – Ministry of Finance

 Indonesia GDP by expenditure

Real Economic Growth (%yoy)

8

7
Average Growth 2007-2017 = 5.56
6
5.19
5

0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Growth (%yoy) Composition (%)

2016 2017
Component
I II III IV I II III IV
Gross Fixed CE:
Consumption Expenditure (CE) 4.84 5.24 3.99 3.43 4.77 4.13 4.77 4.79 Capital Government
Formation 10%
CE: Household 4.97 5.07 5.01 4.99 4.94 4.95 4.93 4.97
34%
CE: Non-Profit Institutions 6.40 6.71 6.64 6.72 8.05 8.49 6.02 5.24 Net Export
CE: Government 3.43 6.23 -2.95 -4.05 2.68 -1.93 3.48 3.81 1%

Gross Fixed Capital Formation 4.67 4.18 4.24 4.80 4.78 5.35 7.08 7.27 CE: CE: Non-
Household Profit
Export of Goods and Services -3.29 -2.18 -5.65 4.24 8.74 3.60 17.01 8.5 54% Institutions
1%
Import of Goods and Services -5.14 -3.20 -3.67 2.82 5.11 0.22 15.46 11.81
GDP Growth 4.92 5.18 5.01 4.94 5.01 5.01 5.06 5.19
Source: Statistics Indonesia, Bloomberg 13
 Indonesia Real GDP by sectors
Growth (%, yoy) Composition (%, yoy)

2017 2016

Info rma tio n & Communication 9.8

8.9
Other Services 8.7
8.0
Transportation & Sto rage (TS) 8.5
7.4 Manufacturing
8.4 Others, 21.99% Industry (Mfg),
Busine ss S ervice s 21.22%
7.4
Human He alth & So cial Work A ctivity 6.8
5.2
Constru ction 6.8
5.2
Accommod ati on & Food Be ve rages A ctivity (AFB) 5.5 Transportation
5.2
& Storage
Financial & In sur ance A ctivity (FI) 5.5 (TS), 4.10%
8.9 Wholesales
4.6 Information & and Retail
Water S upply;Sewerage , Waste & Re cycling Mgt Trade, Repairs
3.6 Com municatio
n, 5.09% (WR), 13.23%
Wholesale s and Retail Trad e, Repair s (WR) 4.4
4.0
Mining &
Manufactu ring In dustry (Mfg) 4.3
4.3 Quarrying
(MQ), 7.87% Agriculture,
Agr icul ture , Forestry and Fishe ries (A FF) 3.8 Forestry and
3.4 Construction, Fisheries
Real Estate 3.7 9.97% (AFF), 12.68%
4.7
Edu cation Se rvices 3.7
3.8
Pub lic Admin, De fen se & Social Security 2.1
3.2
Electricity & G as Sup ply (E G) 1.5
5.4
Others:
Mining & Qua rryi ng ( MQ ) 0.7 Transportation & Storage (TS); Public Admin, Defense & Social Security;
0.9
Education Services; Accommodation & Food Beverages Activity (AFB); Real
Estate; Business Services; Other Services; Human Health & Social Work
Activity; Electricity & Gas Supply (EG); Water Supply; Sewerage, Waste &
Recycling Mgt

Source: Statistics Indonesia

14
Indonesia economy has
been transforming..

15
Key macroeconomic indicators

Interest Rate & Inflation (yoy) Exchange Rate & Foreign Reserves
16
Frgn Rsrv
14 USD/IDR (USD Bn)
Administered (5.11%)
12
16000 126 140
10 Volatile Good (4.06%) 120
8 15000 100
6 13,768 80
CPI Headline (3.40%) 14000
4 Core (2.67%) 60
2 13000 40
0 20
BI 7-Day RR (4.25%)
-2 12000 -

Jul-16
Aug-16

Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Sep-16

Nov-16
Dec-16

Nov-17
Dec-17
Jun-16

Jan-17

Jun-17

Jan-18
Oct-16

Oct-17
Feb-17

Feb-18
Mar-16
Apr-16

Mar-17
Apr-17

Mar-18
May-17
May-16
Mar
Apr
May
Jul

Mar
Apr
May
Jul

Mar
Apr
May
Jul

Mar
Jun
Aug

Jan

Jun
Aug

Jan

Jun
Aug

Jan
Feb

Feb

Feb
Sept

Sept

Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

Oct
Nov
Dec

Oct
Nov
Dec
2016 2017 2018

Balance of Payment (USD Million) Foreign & Domestic Direct Investment

20.000 IDR Trillion

15.000 800,00
Capital and Financial Account
DDI Realization
10.000 700,00
FDI Realization
600,00
5.000 262,30
500,00 216,23
0 179,50
156,13
400,00 128,10

-5.000
300,00 92,18
Balance of Payment
-10.000 200,00 76,00 396,60 430,50
Current Account 60,60 351,14 354,80 365,90
237,54
-15.000 100,00 176,60
145,58
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
-
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source
Source: : Bloomberg
Bank Indonesia, Statistics Indonesia 16
Domestic indicators

Industrial Production Indicators (%) Consumer Indicators (2010=100)

60 20 40.00%

30.00%

20.00% Retail Sales Survey

55 Industrial production (RHS) 10
10.00%

0.00%

-10.00%
50 0
Consumer Survey
-20.00%
Manufacturing PMI (LHS) -30.00%

Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13

Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15

Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16

Jun-17
Sep-17
Sep-14

Dec-17
Mar-13

Mar-14

Mar-15

Mar-17

Mar-18
Mar-16
45 -10
Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18

Motor-Vehicle Sales (growth, %) Cement Consumption (growth, %)

100% 70%
60%
80%
Motorcycle Sales 50%
60% 40%
40% 30%
Car Sales 20%
20%
10%
0% 0%
-20% -10%
-20%
-40%
-30%
-60% -40%
Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-17

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17
Sep-16
Mar-14

Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17
Mar-14

Mar-18
Source
Source: : Bloomberg
Bloomberg 17
Trade Balance
(USD Million)
Oil and Gas Total Export-Import
5,000 2,000
20,000 3000

2,500 1,000
Export (LHS)
Export (LHS)
0 0

10,000 1500
-2,500 Import (LHS) -1,000
Net Import (RHS)
-5,000 -2,000
Nov-17
Dec-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Apr-17

Oct-17
Feb-17
Mar-17

Jul-17
May-17

Feb-18*
Jun-17

Jan-18
Net Export (RHS)
0 0
Non Oil and Gas (116.00)
15,000 Export (LHS) 3,000

2,000
7,500 -10,000 -1500
1,000
Net Export (RHS)
0 0 Import (LHS)
-1,000
-7,500
-2,000
Import (LHS)
-20,000 -3000

Jun-17

Oct-17

Jan-18
Feb-17

Nov-17
Apr-17

Dec-17
Mar-17

May-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Feb-18*
Jul-17
-15,000 -3,000
Nov-17
Dec-17
Apr-17

Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Feb-17
Mar-17

Jul-17
May-17

Feb-18*
Jun-17

Jan-18

*Preliminary figure
Source
Source: : Statistics
Statistics Indonesia
Indonesia 18
 Banking
January 2018

Loan Third Party Fund

+7.40% (yoy) +8.36% (yoy)

IDR 4,632.31 tn IDR 5,228.79 tn

23.43% 5.19% 89.10% 2.65%

Capital Adequacy Net Interest Loan to Deposit Non-Performing
Ratio (CAR) Margin (NIM) Ratio (LDR) Loan (NPL)
Above minimum threshold 8% Keep maintained under 5%

Source: Bank Indonesia, Statistics Indonesia, latest figure

Indonesia Banking Sector
Total Assets & Third Party Funds (IDR Trillion) Total Loan (IDR Trillion)
Investment (% of Total Loan) Working Capital (% of Total Loan)
CAGR 2013-2018 Assets Third Party Fund Consumption (% of Total Loan)

at 9.98% p.a
7,387 7,306 100% 1
90%
6,730 30.4% 30.3% 29.5% 27.6% 27.6% 27.2% 27.5% 28.2% 28.8% 1
6,133 80%
5,615 5,289 5,229 70%
4,954 4,837 1
4,114 4,413 60%
3,664 50% 47.2% 46.8% 46.9% 45.7% 1
49.8% 48.6% 48.6% 48.2% 47.8%
40%
30% 0
20% 0
10% 19.7% 21.1% 21.8% 24.2% 24.6% 25.5% 25.7% 24.9% 25.4%
0% -
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan-18 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan-18

Deposit & Loan Growth (IDR Trillion) Banking Ratios (%)

LDR, CAR ROA, NPL
21.6% Deposit 100% Loan to deposit ratio 5%

Loan 80% 4%
Return on assets
13.6% 60% 3%
12.3% 11.6%
10.4% 9.6% 40% 2%
7.3% 9.4% 8.4%
7.9% Non performing loans
7.4% 20% 1%
5.8% Capital adequacy ratio
0% 0%
Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16

Jul-17
Jan-14

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan-18 Jan-15

Source: Financial Service Authority (OJK) 1) For all commercial bank, excl. Rural Bank
20
 Fiscal Updates
State Budget Macroeconomic Assumption
% to
Realization
APBN 2018 outlook Difference Realization APBN
Breakdown (Trillion Rupiah) 2017 2017 2018
2017
A. GOVERNMENT REVENUE 1736,1 1894,7 109.1 158.7
I. Domestic Revenues 1,733.00 1,893.50 109.3 160.6
1. Tax 1,472.70 1,618.10 109.9 145.4
2. Non-tax Revenues 260.2 275.4 105.8 15.2 5.2 Economic 5.4
II. Grant 3.1 1.2 38.5 -1.9 Growth (%)
B. GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES 2,098.90 2,220.70 105.8 121.7
I. Central Government Expenditure 1,343.10 1,454.50 108.3 111.4 4.3 3.5
1. Ministry/Agency Expenditure 769.2 847.4 110.2 78.2
Inflation (%)
2. Non Ministry/Agency Expenditure 573.9 607.1 105.8 33.2
a.l. a. Payment of Debt Interest 218.6 238.6 109.2 20 5.2 5.2
b. Subsidies 168.9 156.2 92.5 -12.6
Interest Rate
c. Other Expenditures 56 67.2 120.1 11.2 SPN 3 month (%)
II. Transfer to the Region and Village Fund 755.9 766.2 101.4 10.3
1. Transfer to the Regions
a.l. a. Revenue Sharing Fund
697.7
95.4
706.2
89.2
101.2
93.5
8.5
-6.2
13,400 13,400
Exchange Rates
b. Public Allocation Fund 398.6 401.5 100.7 2.9
(IDR/USD)
2. Village Fund 58.2 60 103.1 1.8
C. PRIMARY BALANCE
D. BUDGET SURPLUS/(DEFICIT) (A-B)
-144.3
-362.9
-87.3
-325.9
60.5
89.8
57
36.9
48 48
%Surplus/Deficit Toward GDP -2.67 -2.19 Oil Price (USD/brl)
E. BUDGET FINANCING (I + II + III + IV + V) 362.9 325.9 89.8 36.9
I. Debt Financing 427 399.2 93.5 -27.8
815 800
a.l. SBN Issuance (Net) 433 414.5 95.7 -18.4 Gas Lifting (mboepd)
II. Investment Financing -59.7 -65.7 109.9 -5.9
III. Lending -3.7 -6.7 182.4 -3 1.15 1.2
IV. Guarantee Obligation -1 -1.1 111.5 -0.1
V. Other Financing 0.3 0.2 61 -0.1 Oil Lifting
(Thousand barrel/day)
Source: Ministry of Finance
 The Economic Policy Packages
Harmonizing Regulations
Phase I (9 Sept ’15)
Improving national industry
competitiveness
Phase II (29 Sept ’15)
Easing permit requirement and
simplifying export proceeds
requirement
Phase III (7 Oct ’15)
Financial services facilitation,
export financing and
elimination of business
unnecessary burden
Phase IV (15 Oct ’15)
Social safety net and
betterment of people welfare
Source:: Bank Indonesia
Simplifying Bureaucratic Process
Phase VIII (21 Dec ’15)
Resolving land acquisition
disputes, intensifying domestic
oil production, stimulating
domestic parts and aviation
industries
Phase VII (7 Dec ’15)
Stimulating business activities in
labor-intensive industries nation-
wide through incentives in the form
of accelerating land certification
process for individuals
Phase VI (6 Nov ’15)
Stimulating economic
activities in border areas and
facilitating strategic
commodities availability
Phase V (22 Oct ’15)
Improving industry and
investment climate through
tax incentives and
deregulation on sharia
banking
Ensuring Law Enforceability
Phase IX (27 Jan ’16)
Accelerating electricity
generation, stabilizing meat
prices and improving rural –
urban logistics sector
Phase X (11 Feb ’16)
Revising Negative investment
List and improving protection
for SMEs
Phase XI (29 Mar ’16)
Stimulating national economy
through facilitation to SMEs
and industries
Phase XII (28 Apr’16)
Improving Indonesia’s rank on
Ease of Doing Business (EODB)
“To improve national
industry competitiveness,
export and investment to
generate significant
economic growth”
Phase XV (15 Jun’17)
Development of Business and
Competitivenesss of National
Logistics Service Provider
Phase XIV (10 Nov’16)
Roadmap for E-commerce
Phase XIII (24 Aug ’16)
Low Cost Housing for Low-
Income Communities
22
 Progress of the Economic Policy Packages

TOTAL
REGULATIONS 234 I-XV 234 regulation to be deregulated

SET 219 FINISHED 97%

As of January 18th, 2018, deregulation of 219
52 PRESIDENTIAL LEVEL
50 FINISHED 96% regulations are finished (97%), comprising 50
TOTAL regulations at Presidential level and 169
regulations at Ministerial/Institutional level
171 MINISTRIAL/INSTITUTIONAL
LEVEL
97%
TOTAL 169 FINISHED
Unfinished regulation: Proposed policy on
ON GOING
4 DISCUSSION 3% Development of Business and Competitiveness
of National Logistics Service Providers

Source:: Bank Indonesia 23

 Indonesia Current Condition vs Past Crises
JCI Index (IHSG) IDR Depreciation (%) Inflation (%)
JCI is significantly higher than 1998 & 2008 Depreciation rate is lower than 1998 & 2008 Inflation is controlled under
6,188.99 the revised budget target
1998 -197% 55.67

1,111 2008 -35%

256 10.27
3.4
Mar-18 -1.17%
1998 2008 Mar-18 1998 2008 Mar-18

Non-Performing Loan (NPL, %) Policy Rate (%) Foreign Reserves (USD Billion)
NPL level is below the maximum threshold of Policy rate is significantly lower Significantly higher than 1998 & 2008, ample
5% to cover 7.9 months of import and external
60 debt repayment
1998 30.00
1998 17.40
2008 3.80 9.25 4.25 2008 50.20
Jan-18 2.87
1998 2008 Mar-18 Mar-18 126.00

Government Debt/GDP (%) External Debt/GDP External Debt (Public & Private) to FX
Continue to decline and allocated to Slightly higher than 2008, but significantly Reserve Ratio
productive sectors lower than 1998 Significantly lower than 1998 crisis

116.8%
100.0% 8.6x
27.4% 29.2% 33.2% 34.82%
3.1x 2.7x

1998 2008 2017 1998 2008 2017 1998 2008 2017

Source: Bank Indonesia 24

Capital Market Updates

25
 • The Indonesia capital
Market Institute
• DSN-MUI launched fatwa about
sharia principals and trading
IDX Milestone
(TICMI) was 2011 mechanism
established • Otoritas Jasa Keuangan was founded
under FSA Law No.21/2011 2012
• Securities Investor Protection Fund
opened

• Implementation of
2013 New Trading Hours

• New Adjustment of Lot

2014 Size & Tick Size Rule

• Establishment of IDX Channel

• “Yuk Nabung Saham” Campaign
launched
• Soft Re-launching of LQ-45
2015
Index Futures

• Readjustment of Tick Size Rule

2016 •
•
Tax Amnesty Program launched
Readjustment of Autorejection Rule
• Go Public Information Center
• Margin Transaction
2017 • Relaxation
Indonesia Securities Fund
• IDX Incubator

26
 Regulatory Framework:
Independency of FSA in Indonesia

Indonesia Parliament
Indonesia Government

Financial Service Authority

Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK)
FSA Law No. 21/2011
Ministry of Finance

Capital Other Non-

Banking Banking
Market
Securities Exchange
and Commission

Indonesia Stock Exchange

Indonesia Stock Exchange

27
 Indonesia Stock Exchange and its Subsidiaries
Self Regulatory Organizations (SRO)

100%
ownership

11.5% ownership
20%
ownership

Credit Capital Market Investor Bond Pricing Media Indonesia

Rating Education Protection Fund Agency Channel Securities Fund

28
 President Director
IDX Organization Structure
Corporate
Communication Corporate
Secretary
Internal
Audit

Special Project Strategic

- Capital Market Intelligent Management Office
Center Project
- Economic Senior Researcher
- Capital Market Senior
Researcher
- Sharia Capital Market
- IDX Incubator Legal

Director of Director of Market Director of Director of IT and Director of

Director of
Trading and Surveillance and Business Finance and Human
Listing Risk Management
Membership Compliance Development Resources

Listing Service
Trading Market Research and IT Planning and
and Issuer Finance
Operation Surveillance Development Development
Monitoring

Privatization, Trading Support IT Project

Member Investor
Start-up, SME, and Management Accounting
Compliance Development
and Foreign Development Office
Listing
Membership
Potential Issuer
Management IT Operation Human Capital
Development
Issuer Information and Monitoring
Management and
Development
Domestic Area Risk
Development General Affair
Management

29
Indonesia Capital Market – 29 March 2018

Stock Market Outstanding AUM ETF

Bond
Outstanding
Capitalization ABS IDR 9.51 Tn
(USD 691.17 Mn)
Govt IDR 2,164.89 Tn
IDR 6,884.88 Tn (USD 156.07 Bn) IDR 9.70 Tn
AUM REIT
(USD 500.50 Billion) IDR 529.62 Bn
Corp IDR 401.13 Tn (USD 705.15 Mn)
-2.38% ytd (USD 29.16 Bn) (USD 39.09 Mn)

PRODUCTS

ETF 15
Exchange
Stock 569
106
Members Warrants 27
673,413 REITS 1
Single Investor ID
(+7.17%, ytd) 114
Bond & Sukuk
issuers ABS 15

USD/IDR : 13,756 (BI)

Source: Bloomberg & IDX 30
Average Daily Trading and Market Capitalization
2011 – 29 March 2018

Average Daily Trading Volume Average Daily Trading Turnover

million shares billion IDR

+7.4% p.a 9,554

+16.1% p.a 11,953 12,549
7,498 7,603
7,827 6,238 6,006 5,764
5,928 4,953 4,537
4,873 5,503 5,484
4,284

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Average Daily Number of Trades Market Capitalization

times trillion IDR

384,845 +12.2% p.a

+18.4% p.a 7,052 6,885
312,485
264,127 5,754
5,228 4,873
212,635 221,583 4,127 4,219
153,686 3,537
113,454 121,712

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

31
Average Daily Trading Value of All Securities
IDR Billion
Equities Fixed Income ETF & REIT

Stocks Govt Bond ETF

0.55
9,553.69 25,354.95

7,498.32 7,603.33
6,005.75 5,763.78 15,943.65
13,820.88 14,738.75
11,566.56

0.12
0.05 0.07
0.03
2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan-Mar '18
2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan-Mar '18 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan-Mar '18

Warrant Corp Bond REIT

61.50 1,349.10 0.59
0.58
0.51
1,036.02
904.51
762.83
679.16

13.08 0.14
3.71 4.52 0.05
1.15

2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan-Mar '18 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan-Mar '18 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan-Mar '18

Right ABS
4.47
1.98

2.67 for the period of

1.07
0.71
0.94 2014 – Mar 2018
1.24
0.98
0.13 0.32

2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan-Mar '18 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan-Mar '18
Source: IDX Monthly Statistics
32
 Jakarta Composite Index – 10 Years
2008 – 29 March 2018
Annual Return Trend

6,355.654
6,188.987

5,226.947

5,296.711

3,703.512 4,593.008
4,316.687
4,274.177
3,821.992 2007 - 2018
2,745.826
2,534.356
+125.4%
+8.3% pa

1,355.408

-50.64% -0.98% -12.13% -2.62%

86.98% 46.13% 3.20% 12.94% 22.29% 15.32% 19.99%

D-07 2008 D-08 2009 D-09 2010 D-10 2011 D-11 2012 D-12 2013 D-13 2014 D-14 2015 D-15 2016 D-16 2017 D-17 2018 D-18

33
JCI vs Major World Indices

%YTD 2018 ±10 Years Period*

Malaysia 3.71% Indonesia 125.40%

Thailand 1.29% Philippines 120.34%
Singapore 0.74% Thailand 107.00%
Hong Kong 0.58% US: S&P500 79.85%
South Korea -0.88% India 62.51%
US: S&P500 -1.22% Germany 49.95%
Indonesia -2.62% Japan 40.15%
France -2.73% Malaysia 28.96%
India -3.20% South Korea 28.92%
China: Shanghai -4.18% UK 9.29%
Australia -4.84% Hong Kong 8.20%
Japan -5.76% Singapore -1.09%
Germany -6.35% France -7.96%
Philippines -6.76% Australia -8.60%
UK -8.21% China: Shanghai -39.77%

Source: Bloomberg *31 Dec 2007 – 29 Mar 2018

34
MSCI Index Comparison
February 2008 – 29 March 2018 (2008=100)

225 MSCI Indonesia

USD 187.53

205

185

165

MSCI World
145
USD 138.94
MSCI ASEAN
125 USD 104.54

MSCI EM
105 USD 124.74

85 MSCI BRIC
USD 87.91

65

45

25
Dec-09

Nov-10

Oct-11

Apr-17
Sep-12

Aug-13
Feb-08

Mar-18
Jul-14

May-16
Jan-09

Jun-15

35
 Market Capitalization
29 March 2018
Based on Sectors & Top 20

Market
No. Code Company Capitalization %
(in Trillion Rp)
Market Finance (2,087 T)
1. BBCA Bank Central Asia Tbk. 568.72 8.26
Capitalization 2. HMSP H.M. Sampoerna Tbk. 462.95 6.72
Trade, Services &
3. BBRI Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. 439.60 6.39
Investment (744 T) 4. UNVR Unilever Indonesia Tbk. [S] 377.88 5.49
30.3%
10.8% 5. TLKM Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. [S] 362.88 5.27
22.4%
Agriculture (109 T) 6. BMRI Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk. 354.58 5.15
10.4%
1.6% 7. ASII Astra International Tbk. [S] 295.53 4.29
1.6% 8. BBNI Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. 160.16 2.33
Mining (397 T)
5.8% 9. GGRM Gudang Garam Tbk. 139.45 2.03
15.2% Trading 10. UNTR United Tractors Tbk. [S] 119.36 1.73
Value 15.4% 11. TPIA Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk. [S] 111.01 1.61
8.3% Basic Industry And 12. ICBP Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk. [S] 96.50 1.40
10.7% 13.
Infrastructure, Utilities & Chemicals (570 T) KLBF Kalbe Farma Tbk. [S] 70.31 1.02
Transportation (736 T)
10.2% 6.5% 14. ADRO Adaro Energy Tbk. [S] 68.13 0.99
4.5%
5.3% 15. MYOR Mayora Indah Tbk. [S] 65.96 0.96
6.1% 13.9% 16. BDMN Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk. 65.24 0.95
Miscellaneous Industry
(368 T) 17. INDF Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk. [S] 63.22 0.92
Property And Real Estate
(422 T) 21.1% 18. SMGR Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. [S] 61.39 0.89
19. INKP Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk. 60.18 0.87
Consumer Goods Industry 20. INTP Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk. [S] 58.90 0.86
(1,453 T) Market Capitalization of The 20 Stocks 4,001.95 58.13

Total IDX 6,884.88

Source: IDX
Note: The data were compiled and processed by Statistical Publication Unit
36
Capital Market vs Banking Fund Raised
241 271 297 383 412 480 674 803 214 Total Fund Raised

IDR Trillion 9.6

72.3 IPO
12.11
1.34 0.62
Capital Market 9.1 11.3 61.9 Rights
10.1 16.7 155 13
March 2018: 29.7 19.6 39 46 0.82 1.14 Warrant
18 39 1.46 115 0.09
IDR 213.81 T (18.72%, yoy) 48 42 1.64 2.26 48 63
1.87 0.58 25 Corporate Bond
69 59 565
(total accumulation) 39 46
Government Bond
123 163 198 267 315 359 485 175

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan-Mar '18

1001 1229 1553 1908 2384 2661 2952 3175 3297 Total Loan*

IDR Trillion

Banking 2,119 Working Capital

2,049
January 2018: 1,757
1,916

IDR 3,296.89 T (6.19%, yoy) 1,586

1,317
(total outstanding) 1,069
880 Investment
703 1,125 1,178
798 903 1,036
349 464 591
298
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 End of
Jan-18
*) Working Capital + Investment Loan
Source: IDX, OJK 37
 Equity IPO History
Number of
Companies Number of IPO (LHS) Total Value of New Issue (RHS) IDR Tn

40 37 35
35 31 31 30
30 19 25 25
23 23 24
25 21 22 22
18 20
20 16
12 12 13 15
15
6 8 10
10
4 5
5
0 0
2000

2002

2003

2005

2007

2008

2010

2012

2013

2015

2017
2001

2004

2006

2009

2011

2014

2016

2018
No. Code Company IDR Billion Sub Sector
2018
1 LCKM LCK Global Kedaton Tbk. 41.60 Non Building Construction
2 BOSS Borneo Olah Sarana Sukses Tbk. 160.00 Coal Mining
3 HELI Jaya Trishindo Tbk. 90.09 Transportation
4 JSKY Sky Energy Indonesia Tbk. 325.21 Electronics
Total Fund Raised 616.90
Source: IDX 38
 Latest Equity IPO (2017)
No. Code Company IDR Billion Sub Sector
2017
1 GMFI Garuda Maintenance Facility Aero Asia Tbk. 1,129.34 Machinery and Heavy Equipment
2 PPRE PP Presisi Tbk. 1,011.03 Non Building Construction
3 WEGE Wijaya Karya Bangunan Gedung Tbk. 832.88 Building Construction
4 KMTR Kirana Megatara Tbk. 527.82 Others
5 TOPS Totalindo Eka Persada Tbk. 516.46 Building Construction
6 ARMY Armidian Karyatama Tbk. 491.25 Property And Real Estate
7 DWGL Dwi Guna Laksana Tbk. 465.00 Wholesale (Durable & Non-Durable Goods)
8 IPCM Jasa Armada Indonesia Tbk. 461.89 Transportation
9 HRTA Hartadinata Abadi Tbk. 331.58 Others
10 WOOD Integra Indocabinet Tbk 325.00 Houseware
11 PBID Panca Budi Idaman Tbk. 318.75 Plastics & Packaging
12 NASA Ayana Land International Tbk. 309.00 Tourism, Restaurant and Hotel
13 PORT Nusantara Pelabuhan Handal Tbk. 308.62 Transportation
14 MCAS M Cash Integrasi Tbk. 300.52 Retail Trade
15 CAMP Campina Ice Cream Industry Tbk. 292.05 Food & Beverages
16 CARS Industri dan Perdagangan Bintraco Dharma Tbk. 262.50 Wholesale (Durable & Non-Durable Goods)
17 HOKI Buyung Poetra Sembada Tbk. 217.00 Food And Beverages
18 MDKI Emdeki Utama Tbk. 184.35 Chemicals
19 FIRE Alfa Energi Investama Tbk. 150.00 Coal Mining
20 PSSI Pelita Samudera Shipping Tbk. 135.81 Transportation
21 TGRA Terregra Asia Energy Tbk. 110.00 Energy
22 TAMU Pelayaran Tamarin Samudra Tbk. 82.50 Transportation
23 FINN First Indo American Leasing Tbk. 80.43 Financial Institution
24 ZINC Kapuas Prima Coal Tbk. 77.00 Metal and Mineral Mining
25 PCAR Prima Cakrawala Abadi Tbk. 70.00 Food And Beverages
26 FORZ Forza Land Indonesia Tbk. 68.75 Property And Real Estate
27 CSIS Cahayasakti Investindo Sukses Tbk. 62.10 Building Construction
28 JMAS Asuransi Jiwa Syariah Jasa Mitra Abadi Tbk. 56.00 Insurance
29 MABA Marga Abhinaya Abadi Tbk. 53.09 Tourism, Restaurant And Hotel
30 CLEO Sariguna Primatirta Tbk. 51.75 Food And Beverages
31 MPOW Megapower Makmur Tbk. 49.02 Energy
32 BELL Trisula Textile Industries Tbk. 45.00 Textile, Garment
33 KIOS Kioson Komersial Indonesia Tbk. 45.00 Retail Trade
34 MARK Mark Dynamics Indonesia Tbk 40.00 Ceramics, Glass, Porcelain
35 MAPB MAP Boga Adiperkasa Tbk. 37.25 Tourism, Restaurant And Hotel
36 MTWI Malacca Trust Wuwungan Insurance Tbk. 31.00 Insurance
37 MINA Sanurhasta Mitra Tbk. 27.56 Tourism, Restaurant And Hotel
Total Fund Raised 9,557.30

Source: IDX 39
Income Performance of LQ45 Companies
Profit For The Period
Change
Sep 2017* compared to Sep 2016 No Code Listed Companies (Trillion Rp)
30-Sep-17 30-Sep-16
(%)

1. TLKM Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. 26.01 22.17 17.34%

BUMI 322.74% 2. BBRI Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. 20.54 18.98 8.25%
WSBP 173.86% 3. ASII Astra International Tbk. 17.42 13.23 31.67%
WSKT 167.10% 4. BBCA Bank Central Asia Tbk. 16.85 15.14 11.32%
PTBA 152.50% 5. BMRI Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk. 15.63 12.64 23.67%
SSMS 120.31% 6. BBNI Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. 10.25 7.77 31.82%
ADRO 103.66% 7. HMSP H.M. Sampoerna Tbk. 9.34 9.08 2.83%
BSDE 88.91% 8. UNTR United Tractors Tbk. 5.90 3.18 85.38%
UNTR 85.38% 9. ADRO Adaro Energy Tbk. 5.58 2.74 103.66%
ADHI 77.93% 10. GGRM Gudang Garam Tbk. 5.42 4.60 17.87%
PTPP 69.95%
11. UNVR Unilever Indonesia Tbk. 5.23 4.75 10.08%
WIKA 62.05%
12. INDF Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk. 4.32 4.10 5.26%
TRAM 52.76%
13. TPIA Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk. 3.38 2.82 19.93%
JSMR 49.56%
14. BUMI Bumi Resources Tbk. 3.27 0.77 322.74%
EXCL 49.06%
AKRA 34.73% 15. ICBP Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk. 3.06 2.95 3.68%
BBNI 31.82% 16. BRPT Barito Pacific Tbk. 2.97 2.67 11.28%
ASII 31.67% 17. WSKT Waskita Karya (Persero) Tbk. 2.91 1.09 167.10%
BBTN 23.68% 18. PTBA Bukit Asam Tbk. 2.66 1.06 152.50%
BMRI 23.67% 19. BSDE Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk. 2.46 1.30 88.91%
TPIA 19.93% 20. BBTN Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk. 2.01 1.62 23.68%
GGRM 17.87% 21. JSMR Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk. 1.84 1.23 49.56%
TLKM 17.34% 22. KLBF Kalbe Farma Tbk. 1.81 1.74 4.36%
BBCA 11.32% 23. PWON Pakuwon Jati Tbk. 1.54 1.40 9.84%
BRPT 11.28% 24. LPPF Matahari Department Store Tbk. 1.50 1.61 -6.54%
UNVR 10.08% 25. SMGR Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. 1.47 2.96 -50.37%
PWON 9.84% 26. INTP Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk. 1.41 3.15 -55.32%
SRIL 9.22% 27. PGAS Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk. 1.37 3.19 -56.99%
BBRI 8.25%
28. MNCN Media Nusantara Citra Tbk. 1.20 1.54 -22.21%
INDF 5.26%
29. PTPP PP (Persero) Tbk. 1.12 0.66 69.95%
KLBF 4.36%
30. AKRA AKR Corporindo Tbk. 1.11 0.82 34.73%
ICBP 3.68%
31. SCMA Surya Citra Media Tbk. 1.10 1.17 -6.03%
HMSP 2.83%
ANTM N/A 32. WSBP Waskita Beton Precast Tbk. 1.07 0.39 173.86%
INDY N/A 33. BJBR BPD Jawa Barat dan Banten Tbk. 1.07 1.16 -7.97%
SCMA -6.03% 34. INDY Indika Energy Tbk. 1.03 (0.36) N/A
LPPF -6.54% 35. BMTR Global Mediacom Tbk. 0.92 1.41 -35.10%
BJBR -7.97% 36. LPKR Lippo Karawaci Tbk. 0.86 0.99 -13.10%
LPKR -13.10% 37. WIKA Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk. 0.76 0.47 62.05%
MNCN -22.21% 38. SRIL Sri Rejeki Isman Tbk. 0.64 0.58 9.22%
BMTR -35.10% 39. SSMS Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk. 0.63 0.29 120.31%
SMGR -50.37% 40. EXCL XL Axiata Tbk. 0.24 0.16 49.06%
INTP -55.32% 41. ADHI Adhi Karya (Persero) Tbk. 0.21 0.12 77.93%
PGAS -56.99% 42. MYRX Hanson International Tbk. 0.04 0.15 -75.75%
MYRX -75.75% 43. TRAM Trada Alam Minera Tbk. (0.08) (0.17) 52.76%
INCO -190.05% 44. INCO Vale Indonesia Tbk. (0.26) (0.09) -190.05%
45. ANTM Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk. (0.33) 0.04 N/A
Total of 44 Listed Companies of IDX LQ45 187.47 157.28 19.19%
*) 523 companies out of 566 companies listed Total IDX* 254.726 214.965 18.50%
40
Top 20 Listed Companies by Net Income
Sep 2017* compared to Sep 2016

Profit For The Period

Change
No Code Listed Companies (Trillion Rp)
(%)
30-Sep-17 30-Sep-16
1. TLKM Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. 26.01 22.17 17.34%
2. BBRI Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. 20.54 18.98 8.25%
3. ASII Astra International Tbk. 17.42 13.23 31.67%
4. BBCA Bank Central Asia Tbk. 16.85 15.14 11.32%
5. BMRI Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk. 15.63 12.64 23.67%
6. BBNI Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. 10.25 7.77 31.82%
7. HMSP HM Sampoerna Tbk. 9.34 9.08 2.83%
8. UNTR United Tractors Tbk. 5.90 3.18 85.38%
9. ADRO Adaro Energy Tbk. 5.58 2.74 103.66%
10. GGRM Gudang Garam Tbk. 5.42 4.60 17.87%
11. UNVR Unilever Indonesia Tbk. 5.23 4.75 10.08%
12. INDF Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk. 4.32 4.10 5.26%
13. INKP Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk. 3.88 1.26 207.37%
14. TPIA Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk. 3.38 2.82 19.93%
15. BUMI Bumi Resources Tbk. 3.27 0.77 322.74%
16. BDMN Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk. 3.14 2.62 20.13%
17. BYAN Bayan Resources Tbk. 3.07 (0.36) N/A
18. ICBP Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk. 3.06 2.95 3.68%
19. BRPT Barito Pacific Tbk. 2.97 2.67 11.28%
20. WSKT Waskita Karya (Persero) Tbk. 2.91 1.09 167.10%
Total of 20 Listed Companies 168.18 132.21 27.21%
Total IDX 254.73 214.97 18.50%

*) 523 companies out of 566 companies listed

41
Top 20 Brokerage Firms (Exchange Members)
data per March 2018

by net adjusted working capital by total trading value

Net Adjusted
Trading Value
No. Code Brokerage Firms Working Capital No. Code Brokerage Firms
(USD Million)
(USD Million)
1 CS Credit Suisse Sekuritas Indonesia 90.24 1 CS Credit Suisse Sekuritas Indonesia 5,667.92
2 BK J.P. Morgan Sekuritas Indonesia 54.88 2 CC Mandiri Sekuritas 4,172.17
3 DH Sinarmas Sekuritas 50.91 3 YP Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 4,015.71
4 GR Panin Sekuritas Tbk. 47.33 4 CG Citigroup Sekuritas Indonesia 3,397.52
5 SQ BCA Sekuritas 39.13 5 YU CIMB Sekuritas Indonesia 3,139.26
6 YP Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 38.56 6 MS Morgan Stanley Sekuritas Indonesia 3,118.63
7 KZ CLSA Sekuritas Indonesia 37.27 7 AK UBS Sekuritas Indonesia 2,810.91
8 DR RHB Sekuritas Indonesia 33.93 8 RX Macquarie Sekuritas Indonesia 2,684.55
9 CG Citigroup Sekuritas Indonesia 32.65 9 RB Nikko Sekuritas Indonesia 2,676.81
10 ZP Maybank Kim Eng Sekuritas 32.48 10 DB Deutsche Sekuritas Indonesia 2,652.96
11 CC Mandiri Sekuritas 32.02 11 PD Indo Premier Sekuritas 2,619.64
12 FS Yuanta Sekuritas Indonesia 31.94 12 KZ CLSA Sekuritas Indonesia 2,323.33
13 PD Indo Premier Sekuritas 29.89 13 OK Net Sekuritas 2,323.28
14 XA NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia 29.38 14 CP Valbury Sekuritas Indonesia 2,067.17
15 RX Macquarie Sekuritas Indonesia 28.29 15 DX Bahana Sekuritas 2,008.55
16 YU CGS-CIMB Sekuritas Indonesia 28.02 16 ML Merrill Lynch Sekuritas Indonesia 1,783.75
17 MS Morgan Stanley Sekuritas Indonesia 26.97 17 LG Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk. 1,720.95
18 AP Pacific Sekuritas Indonesia 26.56 18 ZP Maybank Kim Eng Securities 1,669.99
19 FG Nomura Sekuritas Indonesia 25.15 19 DR RHB Sekuritas Indonesia 1,535.76
20 EP MNC Sekuritas 23.61 20 KS Kresna Sekuritas 1,523.81
Total of 20 739.18 Total of 20 53,912.69
Total of IDX 1,373.49 Total of IDX 86,119.35
% 53.82% % 62.60%

42
Foreign investor activities and rupiah movement

IDR Trillion Foreign Net Position (LHS) IDR/USD (RHS) USD/IDR

100.00 8,000

80.00 9,000

60.00 10,000

40.00 11,000

20.00 12,000
(14.93)
- 13,000

(20.00) 14,000
13,756
(23.49)
(40.00) 15,000

(60.00) 16,000

2018*
2004

2005

2006

2009

2010

2014

2015
2003

2007

2008

2011

2012

2013

2016

2017

Feb-18

Mar-18
Jan-18
Notes : : Foreign Net Buying
Source: IDX : Foreign Net Selling
43
Investors Composition in Equity Market

54.49% 51.33% 49.19% Foreign

62.94% 64.49% 63.79%

Ownership
45.51% 48.67% 50.81% Domestic
37.06% 35.51% 36.21%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Mar-18

42.03% 40.58% 43.21% 36.77% 36.63% 38.79%

Foreign

Trading
Activity
57.97% 59.42% 56.79% 63.23% 63.37% 61.21%
Domestic

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan-Mar 2018

Source: IDX A significant change in domestic investors percentage has turned up since Tax Amnesty Program
44
Ownership Composition in Bond Market

38.13% 38.21% 37.55% 39.82% 39.31%

Foreign

Government
Bond
61.87% 61.79% 62.45% 60.18% 60.69%
Domestic

2014 2015 2016 2017 Mar-18

9.66% 7.46% 6.40% 7.90% 7.77%

Foreign

Corporate 90.34% 92.54% 93.60% 92.10% 92.23%

Bond
Domestic

2014 2015 2016 2017 Mar-18

Source: DJPPR (Ministry of Finance), IDX

45
 Financial Literacy Index
Survey in 2013 & 2016

Survey 2013 Survey 2016

29.7% 28.9% 28.3%

21.8% 21.8%

17.8% 17.8%
15.8% 14.9%
13.1%
10.9% 11.0%
9.8%
7.1%
3.8% 4.4%

National Bank ing Insurance Pension Fund Financing Pawnbroking Capit al Social Employees
Market Security Social
Administrat or Security
for Health Sy stem

Source: OJK – Financial Literacy Survey

46
 IDX Distribution Channel

29 Representative Offices

6 Go-Public Centers

331 Investment Galleries

390 Investment Communities 47

Source: IDX
Yuk Nabung Saham (YNS)
National campaign for equity saving plan
Investors must fill Auto Debit from Purchase Orders
in the Power of Personal Bank are exercised by
Attorney Form Account to Brokers based on
and Auto Debit Investment the contract.
Form that stated Account.
auto debit date,
contract period,
and selected
stocks.

Select Nominal
Account Fund Auto Auto Transaction
Fund, Period,
Opening and Stocks Debit Transaction Done
48
YNS Partners

49
IDX Start-up Business Development
Mentorship Funding Access

Working Space
Program
Training

Development
Program Event

1 From Idea to
Capital Market 6
Startup

2 Idea
Factory Go Big!
5
Curriculum
3 Traction Paperwork 4

50
42 Start-ups at IDX Incubator
Mentorship Funding Access
britishenglishclass.com

Maqi Working Space

Medis Online Indonesia

Pandora’s Box

Niatmu

Jalanhalal
51
ASEAN Comparison

52
 ASEAN 5 Country Rating & 10Y Government Bond Yield

Country S&P Moody’s Fitch 10Y Government Bond Yield

BBB- Baa3 BBB % Indonesia Thailand Malaysia

ID 19 May 2017 6 Feb 2018 20 Dec 2017
12 Philippines Singapore Vietnam
Outlook Outlook Outlook
Stable Positive Stable
19 May 2017 6 Feb 2018 20 Dec 2017 10

AAA Aaa AAA 8

SG 5 Apr 2016 5 Aug 2011 21 Nov 2011
6
BBB+ Baa1 BBB+
TH 29 Nov 2011 5 Aug 2011 8 Mar 2013 4

A- A3 A- 2
MY 15 May 2008 5 Aug 2011 21 Nov 2011

0
BBB Baa2 BBB-
Jan-14

Oct-15

Jul-17
Aug-14

Mar-15

Dec-16

Feb-18
May-16
PH 8 May 2014 11 Dec 2014 24 Sep 2015

Source: various source

53
 ASEAN Capital Market Comparisons – Monthly Data (1/2)

Market Capitalization
Listed Companies
Investor (2016)
in USD Billion (number of account, % total population)

Singapore 564.97 Malaysia 905 Malaysia 2,500,000 7.90%

Thailand 561.98 Singapore 746 Thailand 1,355,664 1.97%

Indonesia 495.57 Thailand 689 Singapore 921,000 16.43%

Malaysia 471.18 Indonesia 568 Philippines 773,187 0.74%

Philippines 267.37 Philippines 267 Indonesia* 673,413 0.26%

*data March 2018

Source: Bloomberg Source: WFE – December 2018 Edition Source: Stock Exchange Annual Report

54
 ASEAN Capital Market Comparisons – Monthly Data (2/2)

Daily Average (USD Mil) PE Ratio

Thailand Indonesia (IHSG) 21.92

2,195.61

Philippines 21.62
Singapore
1,078.05

Vietnam 21.01
Indonesia 703.39

Indonesia (LQ45) 18.85

Malaysia 691.05

Thailand 17.86

Vietnam 321.37
Malaysia 17.56

Philippines 103.85
Singapore 11.19

Source: Bloomberg; data per Mar-2018 55

 Market Capitalization
USD Billion

Singapore Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Vietnam

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Mar-18

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Mar-18

1 China 3,360.48 4,965.32 7,091.93 6,462.83 7,726.49 7,682.78
2 Japan 4,599.29 4,441.35 5,029.96 5,084.27 6,340.04 6,368.03
3 Australia 1,315.31 1,224.41 1,071.92 1,166.84 1,404.92 1,326.64
4 Singapore 578.08 570.64 463.46 464.72 568.23 564.97
5 Thailand 345.12 415.79 332.94 410.63 526.80 561.98
6 Indonesia 346.47 421.97 350.12 422.40 514.82 495.57
7 Malaysia 497.99 452.66 377.12 354.00 448.24 471.18
8 Philippines 213.36 256.80 234.93 234.64 285.14 267.37
9 Vietnam 45.66 54.20 60.42 84.50 153.53 191.45
Sumber
Source: : Bloomberg, World Federation Exchanges
Bloomberg 57
 Average Daily Trading Value Comparison
USD Million
Thailand Singapore Malaysia Indonesia Vietnam Philippines
2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan-Feb '18

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan-Feb '18

1 China 16,212.22 24,248.80 80,373.97 77,782.79 67,690.09 74,817.93
2 Japan 25,734.40 22,311.01 22,707.77 21,316.30 21,859.61 27,572.88
3 Australia 3,484.41 3,192.93 3,146.07 3,671.35 3,933.47 4,250.85
4 Thailand 1,534.79 1,282.41 1,175.95 1,422.19 1,406.04 2,195.61
5 Singapore 1,119.23 830.76 820.21 760.24 829.35 1,078.05
6 Indonesia 475.29 392.43 318.34 533.02 567.89 703.39
7 Malaysia 598.68 622.26 504.52 438.50 538.15 691.05
8 Vietnam 41.72 88.99 76.82 109.98 177.09 325.32
9 Philippines 192.84 175.84 165.34 110.67 97.92 103.85
Sumber
Source: : Bloomberg, World Federation Exchanges
Bloomberg 58
 Average Daily Frequency
Thousand times

Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Vietnam Philippines

600

400

200

0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan-Feb '18

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan-Feb '18

1 China 7,554.98 9,989.24 30,581.55 12,336.17 12,567.98 12,170.55
2 Japan 2,445.27 2,614.83 3,169.92 3,564.09 3,324.74 4,071.82
3 Australia 754.40 709.11 803.81 990.22 1,089.46 1,165.49
4 Thailand 321.49 336.97 367.79 373.85 348.16 394.70
5 Indonesia 153.25 212.21 221.12 263.79 311.84 387.50
6 Malaysia 113.16 141.69 153.20 143.28 174.09 232.79
7 Vietnam 30.03 48.70 43.26 50.54 74.50 113.99
8 Philippines 29.18 38.20 53.10 70.33 74.15 105.39

Source: World Federation Exchanges (WFE) 59

Outlook

60
 Key Issues in 2018

• The Fed rate hike Global Domestic

• Trump’s inward-looking policy

o Global potential trade war due to Trump’s
new policy on import tariff
o Tax Reform
o Increasing in military and infrastructure
spending and cutting budget for social
welfare programs
o Risk: higher fiscal deficit put negative
pressure on the U.S credit rating
• Listed companies’ Audit Report Release
(March-April)
• Political Events
o 171 regional election
(February – June)
o Road to 2019 Presidential Election
(Start from July/August)
• Government Budget Realization

• Emerging market and commodity price likely • 2018 Asian Games

to recover further (August – September)

• 2018 FIFA World Cup • IMF & World Bank Annual Meeting
(October)
• MSCI Rebalancing Steps
(The inclusion of China A-shares &
Aramco Saudi’s Initial Public Offering) 61
End of This Document
For further inquiries :
Heidy Ruswita Sari
Head of Economic Analysis Unit
heidy.sari@idx.co.id
+6221 515015 ext.4120

Adhel Rusd
Economist
adhel.rusd@idx.co.id
+6221 515015 ext.4110

Luthfi F Ibrahim
Economist
luthfi.ibrahim@idx.co.id
+6221 515015 ext.4109

Anita Kesia
CMPDP
anita.kesia@idx.co.id
+6221 515015 ext.4110

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