MEMORANDUM

TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Jefrey Pollock & Joe Hickerson
RE: PA 08 Survey Results
DATE: August 27, 2010

The results of our August survey of likely voters in Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District show a
very tight race between current Congressman Patrick Murphy and former Congressman Mike
Fitzpatrick, with Murphy leading by just 4 points, (Murphy 47%/Fitzpatrick 43%), which is within the
margin of error and puts the incumbent under 50%.

KEY FINDINGS
• An Equal Number of Voters View Each Candidate Favorably: Patrick Murphy is viewed
favorably by 54% of voters, while Mike Fitzpatrick is viewed favorably by 58% of voters.

• A Majority of Voters Is Inclined to Re-elect Murphy: Just 40% of likely voters say they are
inclined to replace Murphy, while 51% say they are inclined to re-elect him. However, that
includes just 28% who say they will definitely re-elect Murphy.

• Murphy Holds a Small Lead But in a Very Difficult Environment for Democrats: Murphy
leads Fitzpatrick by 4 points, 47% to 43%, despite the fact that a generic Republican holds a
small 2-point lead (42%-40%) over a generic Democrat. In addition, Dan Onorato trails Tom
Corbett by 11 points (35%-46%) in the race for Governor, and Joe Sestak trails Pat Toomey by
10 points (40%-50%) in the race for U.S. Senate.

• More Voters Choose Murphy on a Series of Important Traits: By a margin of 45% to 38%,
more voters say Murphy agrees with them on important issues, and by a margin of 39% to 33%,
more voters say Murphy cares about people like them. In addition, when asked who has the best
plan to improve the economy and create jobs, 39% choose Murphy, while just 34% choose
Fitzpatrick.

METHODOLOGICAL NOTE
This memorandum summarizes results from two telephone polls of 400 randomly selected likely
voters in Pennsylvania’s 8th District. Interviewing for the poll was conducted August 11-15, 2010.
Special care was taken to ensure the geographic and demographic divisions of the actual electorate
are properly represented. The estimation error associated with a sample of 400 is 4.9% at the 95%
confidence interval. This means that in 95 of 100 cases, the results of this poll are within plus or
minus 4.9 points of the results that would have been obtained if all likely voters had been
interviewed.

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