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They responded to CNBC’s invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were
collected on June 7-9, 2018. Participants were not required to answer every question.
This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those
who did accept our invitation.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Raise interest
rates 100%
Lower interest
rates 0%
Keep rates
unchanged 0%
Don't know/
unsure 0%
100%
100%
100% 100% 100%
98% 98% 97%
95% 95%
94% Raise interest rates: 97%
92%
90%
88%
80%
60%
40%
4% 5% 5%
3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3%
0% 0%
0%
Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec Jan Mar May Jun
27 '16 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 '17 14 2 13 25 19 31 12 30 '18 20 1 12
(For the 97% answering the next move will be to raise rates)
Jul 3%
Aug 0%
Sep 81%
Oct 3%
Average:
Nov 0%
September
2018
Dec 11%
Jan '19 0%
Feb 0%
Mar 3%
Apr 0%
After
Apr '19 0%
4.00
3.50
3.21
3.00
2.86 2.84
Average
1.50
1.00
Sep 19 Oct 31 Dec 12 Jan 30 Mar 20 May 1 Jun 12
Survey Dates
Note: Three percent of respondents said the Fed will cut rates in 2019.
13%
Strongly
approve 8%
14%
45%
Approve 49%
41%
20%
Neutral 19%
24%
18%
Disapprove 16%
11%
5%
Strongly
disapprove 8%
11%
5. How would you view a U.S. exit from the North American
Free Trade Agreement?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
48%
Very
49%
negative
27%
33%
Negative 41%
57%
15%
Neutral 5%
8%
3%
Positive 0%
5%
0%
Very
0%
positive
0%
Don't 3%
know/ 5%
unsure 3%
90%
80%
70%
Negative for growth
63%
60%
58%
60%
55%
50%
40%
20% 21%
16% 13% Neutral for growth
10%
8%
8% 8%
3% 3% 5%
0% Positive for growth
Jan 30 Mar 20 May 1 Jun 12
3%
Increase
5%
62%
Decrease
49%
Little or
35%
no effect
46%
Don't 0%
know/
unsure 0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Reduce U.S.
economic growth 22%
Increase U.S.
economic growth 11%
Have no
effect on
U.S. economic 64%
growth
Don't know/
unsure 3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Oct 9%
Nov 3%
Dec 44%
Average:
Jan 2019 6%
December
Feb 3% 2018
Mar 12%
Apr 0%
May 0%
Jun 0%
After
Jun 2019 12%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Strongly
above trend 0%
Modestly
above trend 34%
At trend 31%
Modestly
below trend 26%
Strongly
below trend 3%
Don't know/
unsure 6%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
0% 14%
10% 24%
Average:
30% 22%
40% 8%
50% 0%
60% 0%
70% 0%
80% 0%
90% 0%
100% 0%
Don't know/
unsure
5%
12. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock index will
be on … ?
3,200
3005
3,000
2946
2928
2879
2937
2862
2775 2787
2708
2,600
2588 2593
2555 2564 2562
2480
2,400 2453
2,200
2,000
1,800
Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec Jan Mar May Jun
13 31 14 2 13 25 19 31 12 30 20 1 12
2017 2018
Survey Dates
4.0%
3.24% 3.24%
3.22% 3.23%
3.17%
3.05%
3.03% 3.06% 3.07%
2.95%
3.0%
2.84%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec Jan Mar May Jun
13 31 14 2 13 25 19 31 12 30 20 1 12
2017 2018
Survey Dates
14. Where do you expect the fed funds target rate will
be on … ?
Dec 31, 2018 Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2020
2.98%
3.1%
2.87%
2.86%
2.90%
2.9%
2.95%
2.73% 2.85%
2.56%
2.49%
2.5% 2.54%
2.42% 2.32%
2.29%
2.3% 2.25% 2.24%
2.22% 2.19%
2.17%
2.15% 2.14% 2.23%
2.07% 2.06%
2.06%
2.02%
1.87%
1.9%
1.81%
1.78%
1.7%
1.69%
1.5%
Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec Jan Mar May Jun
26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14 2 13 25 19 31 12 30 20 1 12
2017 2018
15. At what fed funds level will the Federal Reserve stop
hiking rates in the current cycle? That is, what will be the
terminal rate?
4.0%
3.5%
3.29%
3.30%
3.24%
3.20% 3.21%
3.17%
3.11% 3.18%
3.06%
3.16%
2.98% 2.95%
3.0% 3.04% 2.94%
2.92%
2.85% 2.94%
2.91%
2.85% 2.73%
2.79% 2.80%
2.65%
2.69%
2.65% 2.64% 2.66%
2.58% 2.48%
2.5% 2.56%
2.42% 2.44%
2.29%
2.0%
Sep 16
Oct 28
Sept 16
Oct 27
Sep 20
Jan 26 '16
Sep 19
Jan 27, '15
Mar 17
Jun 16
Mar 15
Jun 14
Jan 31 '17
Oct 31
Jul 28
Jul 26
Mar 14
Jun 13
Jan 30 '18
Aug 20
Jul 25
Mar 20
Jun 12
Apr 28
Aug 25
Apr 26
Aug 24
Dec 16
Dec 15
Dec 13
Nov 1
May 2
Dec 12
May 1
Survey Dates
16. Will the Fed raise rates above its neutral rate to slow
the U.S. economy?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Yes 62%
No 32%
Don't
know/ 5%
unsure
3.0%
2.94% 2.93%
2.85%
2.85% 2.82%
2.80%
2.8% +2.76%
+2.75%
2.76%
2.72%
2.61% 2.70%
+2.62% 2.66%
2.6% 2.60%
+2.58%
2.2%
2.0%
1.8%
Jan 31 Jan 30
Dec 13 Mar 14 May 2 Jun 13 Jul 25 Sep 19 Oct 31 Dec 12 Mar 20 May 1 Jun 12
'17 '18
2018 +2.76% +2.75% +2.62% +2.58% +2.45% 2.45% 2.60% 2.61% 2.85% 2.94% 2.76% 2.82% 2.93%
2019 2.85% 2.70% 2.72% 2.66% 2.80%
2.8%
2.64%
2.6% 2.57%
2.54%
2.50%
2.48%
2.44% 2.45%
2.41%
2.4% 2.45%
2.38%
2.40%
2.15% 2.14%
2.0%
1.8%
1.6%
Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec Jan Mar May Jun
13 31 14 2 13 25 19 31 12 30 20 1 12
2017 2018
Survey Dates
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%
2018 3.74%
2019 3.64%
Other 8%
Lack of unions 5%
Don't know/unsure 0%
Other responses:
• Technology
• Slow nominal GDP growth (effective • Large pool of workers part time for
Fed restraint) economic reasons
Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy
Worker shortage
Slow job growth
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
Apr 30 2 3 2 1
‘13 0 1 0 0 2 2 1 0
1 2 2 1
Jun 18 5 8 0 3 3 0 3 0
3 2 1 1
Jul 30 8 0 2 0 2 2 0 4 4
2 2 1
Sep 17 4 7 2 2 0 4 8 7 2
2 2 1
Oct 29 8 9 4 3 3 3 8 3 0
3 2 1
Dec 17 5 2 9 2 0 2 5 2 2
Jan 28 2 3 1 2
'14 7 1 0 2 0 0 2 1 0
1 2 2 1
Mar 18 0 3 6 3 5 0 5 8 0
2 2 1 1
Apr 28 3 6 1 3 5 0 8 8 3 0
1 2 1 1 1 1
Jul 29 2 9 2 6 3 0 2 2 2 3
2 2 1 1
Sep 16 6 6 9 6 3 0 6 1 1 3
3 1 1 1
Oct 28 1 8 5 3 3 0 0 8 8 3
4 1 1 1
Dec 16 0 4 4 3 6 0 3 4 3 0
Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy
Worker shortage
Slow job growth
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
Jan 27 1 1 4 1
'15 0 3 9 0 0 0 6 6 1 6 6 0
1 2 1 1
Mar 17 6 4 0 3 6 0 6 8 8 7 4 0
1 1 2 1
April 28 3 1 8 3 0 0 6 1 8 8 9 3
1 1 2 2 1
Jun 16 3 7 3 0 0 0 4 5 2 6 1 0
2 1 2
Jul 28 6 1 9 0 0 0 2 6 9 9 9 0
1 4 1
Sept 16 0 6 2 0 4 0 0 8 5 8 4 2
1 4 1
Oct 27 0 8 5 3 8 0 8 3 1 0 5 0
1 1 4 1
Dec 15 0 0 5 0 0 0 8 0 4 5 3 5 0
Jan 26 1 4 2
'16 0 0 5 0 3 0 0 5 4 8 0 3 3
2 3 2
Mar 15 5 1 3 0 0 0 5 5 3 5 0 3 1 0
2 3 1
Apr 26 0 2 2 2 2 0 0 7 6 9 0 7 1 2
2 2 1 1
Jun 14 0 8 5 3 0 0 3 0 8 8 0 5 3 0 0
2 1 2
Jul 26 2 0 7 2 2 0 2 0 2 7 0 7 7 7 2
1 3 1 1
Aug 24 3 9 3 3 0 0 3 3 1 3 3 6 4 1 0
1 1 3 1
Sep 20 0 6 1 3 0 0 0 3 0 8 5 5 8 1 0
Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy
Worker shortage
Slow job growth
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
2 3
Nov 1 3 7 8 0 3 0 8 3 2 3 0 0 5 8 0
1 2
Dec 13 5 9 2 7 0 0 7 7 9 0 2 7 8 5 2
Jan 31 1 1 5 1
'17 0 5 3 3 0 0 0 3 0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
4 1
Mar 14 0 7 2 2 0 0 0 7 4 7 0 2 4 7 4 3 0
2 2 1
May 2 0 8 3 3 0 0 0 5 4 5 0 0 5 6 8 3 0
2 1 1
Jun 13 0 5 5 5 0 3 0 3 1 8 5 0 0 6 8 8 3 0
1 1 2 1
Jul 25 0 5 5 3 3 0 0 0 3 8 5 0 0 0 5 8 8 0
1 1 3
Sep 19 0 2 2 0 2 0 5 2 7 0 7 2 0 2 2 7 7 0
2 1 1 1
Oct 31 0 7 2 2 0 0 0 5 3 5 0 0 2 9 2 4 9 0
1 1 1 1 1
Dec 12 0 7 5 2 0 0 0 7 2 0 2 0 2 2 7 5 5 2 0
Jan 30 2 1 1
‘18 0 3 3 8 0 0 0 8 8 0 0 0 3 4 5 3 8 8 0
4 1
Mar 20 0 3 3 8 0 0 0 8 0 3 3 0 0 7 3 0 8 6 0
2 2 1 1
May 1 0 0 3 8 0 0 3 2 5 8 0 0 0 3 5 3 1 1 0
1 3 1
June 12 3 0 3 1 0 0 0 3 5 5 3 0 0 5 3 0 8 8 4 0
Other responses:
• Debt and unfunded liabilities • Someone doing something really
• Foreign actions stupid because they miscalculate
• Global economic weakness and another party's response
central bank misstep • Supply constraints in residential
construction
36.1%
This survey:
35%
34.0% 13.8%
30%
28.5% 28.8%
26.0%
25.9% 25.3%
25.5%
25% 24.4%
23.5%
22.9%24.1% 23.2%
22.1%
22.2%
20.6% 21.6%
20.4% 21.1% 19.3%
20% 20.3% 18.9%
18.8%
18.2% 18.4% 18.5%
17.3% 18.6%
19.1% 18.1%
16.9% 16.9%
17.6% 16.2% 16.4% 17.4% 16.5%
16.7%
15.1% 16.4%
16.2%
15% 15.1%
15.3% 15.0% 14.9%
15.2% 15.2%
14.6% 14.7%
13.6%
13.7% 13.8%
13.0%
14.3%
10%
Other
22%
Currencies
0%
Economics
Fixed Income
50%
14%
Equities
14%
Comments: