Commodities Daily

Friday, June 15, 2018

Overview
• ECB pledges to keep rates at least until mid-2019;
euro dives Close %Chg.
• Trump to place $50 bln tariffs on China; China Precious metals
vows to confront Gold 1301.8 0.2%
• BOJ decision coming up but no change expected Silver 17.13 0.8%
Energy
Precious Metals
WTI Crude oil 67.01 0.6%
Gold prices traded higher after dovish ECB policy Brent Crude 76.06 0.0%
statement; the central bank said that it looks to shut Natural gas 2.99 1.2%
its bond purchases by end of this year. It also sees Base metals – LME
interest rates steady “at least through the summer of COMEX Copper 3 -0.9%
2019”. Overall statement was dovish as the governor Copper 7151 -0.1%
emphasized that uncertainty and risks were Aluminium 2249 -0.2%
increasing. Highlighting the risks to the outlook, the Nickel 15290 0.1%
ECB downgraded its euro zone growth forecast for Lead 2457 -0.1%
this year to 2.1% from 2.4% previously. Precious Zinc 3170 -0.3%
metals were supported on lower levels as worries Others
over U.S - China trade relations sparked demand for DXY 94.77 1.1%
the safe haven asset. Focus will also be on U.S US 10yr 2.93 -0.5%
President Donald Trump meet with his top trade CBOE VIX 12.05 -6.9%
advisers to decide whether to activate threatened
tariffs on billions of dollar in Chinese goods. Today,
market participants will be focusing on Euro zone
inflation and US industrial production number to
gauge a view for the dollar as well as precious metals.

Please Refer to Disclaimer at the end of the report Page 1

 Commodities Daily

Base Metals
Speculative
Base metals continues to be under pressure with copper CFTC data Change WoW
Longs
sliding for yet another session, with the market set for its
Gold 58066 -3169
biggest weekly decline since late April on concerns over
China. This week LME copper is down 2.3%. China’s Silver 4295 3431
industrial output, investment and retail sales all grew Copper 48799 18887
less than expected, offsetting upbeat trade data and
Crude oil 313450 -10785
suggesting further weakness ahead if Beijing sustains its
crackdown on factory pollution and local government Nat gas 192577 4281
spending. China’s economy is finally starting to cool EUR/USD 89236 -3801
under the weight of a multi-year crackdown on riskier
DXY 4414 490
lending that is pushing up borrowing costs for companies
and consumers. China’s aluminium production in May
rose 1.5% to 2.79 million tonnes from a year earlier. On a
daily basis, China churned out 90,000 tonnes of the INVENTORIES Current W/W Chg. Units
metal last month, compared with 92,300 tonnes in April,
Energy
as per Reuters.
Crude oil 432.44 -4.14 MBbl
Energy Gasoline 236.76 -2.27 MBbl

Crude prices traded lower after Saudi Arabia and Russia Distillate 114.69 -2.10 MBbl
indicated ahead of key OPEC meeting in Vienna next Natural gas 3.13 -0.21 TCF
week that production could rise and Saudi Arabia willing Base Metals Current Daily Chg. Units
to continue cooperation with Russia on global oil LME 1148000 -5875 MT
markets. Meanwhile, major Libyan oil ports were closed Aluminium
SHFE w/w 966824 -5883 MT
and evacuated after attack causing production loss of LME 293550 100 MT
240,000 bpd. South Korea's Iranian crude oil imports fell Copper
SHFE w/w 256030 -16224 MT
in May to their lowest since January, 2016 as South MT
LME 276312 -702
Korean buyers sought to reduce purchases of Iranian oil Nickel
SHFE w/w 26036 -401 MT
amid new U.S. sanctions on Iran. Elsewhere, China
LME 132275 -350 MT
reported a drop in refinery activity, from 12.06 million Lead
SHFE w/w 10184 -783 MT
bpd in April to 11.93 million bpd in May, although YoYo
LME 243550 -1600 MT
runs were still up by 8.2%. Natural gas ended flat despite Zinc
SHFE w/w 90116 10763 MT
shocker storage report by EIA which reported 96 Bcf
build into storage inventories, well above market Precious metals
consensus and hotter weather trends for later this GOLD ETF 1760.9 0.64 MT
month showed up in weather data. Silver ETF 19469 -4.68 MT

Please Refer to Disclaimer at the end of the report Page 2

MT- Metric Tonne, MBBL – Million Barrels, BCF – Billion Cubic Feet.
 Commodities Daily

Agricultural Commodities
Commodity Month Price %Chg.
Cotton settled up as miller and traders are stocking up Cardamom Jul 961.5 2.64%
cotton for the lean season. Moreover good export Castor Seed Jul 4046 1.20%
demand from China is also fueling the prices. Till last
Chana Jul 3417 1.03%
week India kharif cotton acreage is 18% lower at 9.96
lakh ha vs 12.18 lakh ha yr ago. India's cotton exports COCUDAKL Jul 1588 3.99%

are seen rising around 21% on year to 75 lakh bales Cotton Jun 23120 0.52%
backed by depreciation in the rupee and higher CPO Jun 644.5 1.27%
international prices of the commodity. China will import
Dhaniya Jul 4459 0.61%
1.4 million tonnes of cotton in the 2018/19 crop year its
agriculture ministry said raising its forecast from last Guar Gum Jul 7773 1.38%

month's 1.2 million tonnes. The higher estimate was due Guar Seed Jul 3742 1.37%
to larger-than-expected production deficit with Chinese Jeera Jun 16490 0.73%
consumption of the fibre growing 1.2% from previous
Mentha Oil Jun 1157 1.07%
year's level to 8.4 million tonnes. Meanwhile ministry
R M Seed Jul 4006 0.83%
repeated that domestic cotton output would fall 5.8
percent to 5.6 million tonnes due to reduction in Soyabean Jul 3457 1.14%
planting. The forecast comes as global market waits for Soyoil Jul 747.6 1.04%
Beijing to issue additional import quotas to mills that
Sugar Jul 3154 -0.69%
will allow them to boost their purchases of overseas
Turmeric Jul 7422 -0.35%
cotton.
Wheat Jul 1792 0.34%
Cardamom settled up on short covering after prices
dropped on reports of bumper output on the back of
favourable weather amid poor stocks of quality goods. Commodity Expiry Price % Chg.
There has been raining in producing centres of Kerala Malaysian Palm Oil Jul 2336 0.78%
and present weather is conducive to coming crop. Spice
US Soybean Jul 920.3 -0.75%
Board cut the number auctions due to falling arrivals at
US Soyoil Jul 29.97 -0.56%
the auction centres. Producing centres of Kerala are
US Soymeal Jul 342 -0.35%
getting good rains and monsoon is also expected to hit
Kerala coast three days before schedule. India exported ICE US Cotton Jul 92.2 -1.30%
4,180 ton cardamom valued at Rs 4.56 billion during China Cotton Jul 16410 -0.61%
April-December 2017 data from Spices Board showed. US Sugar Jun 12.23 -2.24%
As the prices moved up in recent days those holding the
capsules have started releasing in good quantity and
that coupled with the comparatively inferior quality of
the material has pushed the prices down.

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 Commodities Daily

Level Playing Sheet

Gold Option
Call Put
Monitor
% Chg in OI OI Volume Premium Strike Premium Volume OI % Chg in OI
0.0% 0 0 617.5 30700 74 15 83 7.8%
-38.5% 8 5 490 30900 109.5 129 170 -3.4%
2.8% 74 187 432.5 31000 138.5 255 199 20.6%
-30.8% 101 131 335 31100 178.5 75 114 0.0%
9.7% 113 277 269 31200 210.5 241 105 -7.1%
-54.9% 65 245 239 31300 272.5 94 200 52.7%
-7.1% 26 219 202 31400 312.5 9 18 0.0%
-24.0% 184 175 169 31500 564.5 0 8 0.0%
3.8% 27 3 119 31700 702.5 0 0 0.0%

Commodity Exch. Expiry Close S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 Trend Conviction Intraday Range

GOLD MCX Aug 31377 31103 31240 31329 31466 31555 Bullish Moderate 31285 - 31511
GOLD Comex Jun 1304 1292 1298 1303 1309 1313 Strong Moderate 1301 - 1311
SILVER MCX Jul 41508 40617 41062 41342 41787 42067 Bullish High 41202 - 41927
SILVER Comex Jun 17.23 17.04 17.13 17.21 17.30 17.38 Bullish Moderate 17.17 - 17.34
CRUDE MCX Jun 4517 4462 4489 4515 4542 4568 Flat Moderate 4502 - 4555
CRUDE Nymex Jul 66.69 65.78 66.24 66.63 67.09 67.48 Flat Moderate 66 - 67
NAT GAS MCx Jun 201.0 197.3 199.2 200.2 202.1 203.1 Bullish High 200 - 203
COPPER MCX Jun 481.6 477.3 479.4 482.4 484.5 487.5 Bearish Moderate 478 - 483
ZINC MCX Jun 217.1 213.0 215.1 216.8 218.8 220.5 Bearish Moderate 214 - 218
LEAD MCX Jun 166.5 164.4 165.4 166.5 167.6 168.7 Bearish Moderate 165 - 167
NICKEL MCX Jun 1032.2 1005.8 1019.0 1033.3 1046.5 1060.8 Bearish Moderate 1012 - 1040
ALUMINIUM MCX Jun 154.0 152.9 153.5 154.3 154.9 155.7 Bearish Moderate 153 - 155
BRASS MCX May 366.0 366.0 366.0 366.0 366.0 366.0 Bullish High 366 - 366

Commodity Exch. Expiry Close S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 Trend Conviction Intraday Range

CARDAMOM MCX Jul 962 944 953 963 971 981 Bullish Moderate 949 - 967
CASTOR SEED NCDEX Jul 4,046 3,953 4,000 4,027 4,074 4,101 Strong Moderate 3977 - 4051
CHANA NCDEX Jul 3,417 3,294 3,356 3,391 3,453 3,488 Flat Moderate 3374 - 3471
COCUDAKL NCDEX Jul 1,588 1,513 1,551 1,569 1,607 1,625 Bullish Moderate 1560 - 1616
COTTON MCX Jun 23,120 22,767 22,943 23,107 23,283 23,447 Bullish Moderate 22855 - 23195
CPO MCX Jun 645 626 635 645 655 665 Flat Moderate 640 - 660
DHANIYA NCDEX Jul 4,459 4,304 4,381 4,436 4,513 4,568 Flat Moderate 4408.5 - 4541
JEERA NCDEX Jun 16,490 16,290 16,390 16,455 16,555 16,620 Bullish High 16423 - 16588
GUAR SEED NCDEX Jul 3,742 3,665 3,703 3,726 3,764 3,786 Strong Moderate 3715 - 3775
GUAR GUM NCDEX Jul 8,496 8,387 8,442 8,504 8,559 8,621 Flat Moderate 8473 - 8590
MENTHA OIL MCX Jun 1,157 1,126 1,141 1,153 1,169 1,180 Bearish Moderate 1147 - 1175
R M Seed NCDEX Jul 4,006 3,949 3,977 3,997 4,025 4,045 Flat Moderate 3987 - 4035
SOYBEAN NCDEX Jul 3,457 3,361 3,409 3,438 3,486 3,515 Flat Moderate 3424 - 3501
SOYOIL NCDEX Jul 748 728 738 750 760 772 Bearish Moderate 744 - 766
TURMERIC NCDEX Jul 7,422 7,302 7,362 7,430 7,490 7,558 Bullish Moderate 7332 - 7460
WHEAT NCDEX Jul 1,792 1,785 1,788 1,792 1,795 1,799 Flat Moderate 1787 - 1794
SUGAR NCDEX May 3,154 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,900 Bearish Moderate 2900 - 2900

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 Commodities Daily

Navneet Damani

Research Analyst(Commodities)

Commodity Disclosure & Disclaimer:

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