Académique Documents
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Contents
1. Key findings 02
2. Introduction: are we running out of work? 04
3. How did the competencies required by the labour market change between 1990 and 2013? 08
4. Which competencies will the labour market need in the future? 24
5. What does this mean for the education and training system? 42
6. What does this mean for companies? 46
7. Appendix 1: List of competencies 49
8. Appendix 2: Overview of automation studies conducted by Deloitte Switzerland 52
9. Endnotes 53
10. Contacts 54
What key competencies are needed in the digital age? |
The impact of automation on employees, companies and education
1. Key findings
Labour market
Competencies
Creativity, social intelligence and ICT expertise as the competencies of the future
Creativity and social intelligence in particular are likely to be essential skills for most new jobs created between now and 2030. Because these skills give humans a clear advantage
over machines and software, they also offer protection against developments in automation, making jobs ‘future-proof’. In future, there will also be greater demand for
individuals with excellent mathematical competencies and expertise in ICT. Job prospects and protection against automation will be even better for individuals who can combine
mathematical and technological competencies with creativity and/or social intelligence.
Prospects for lower skilled individuals thanks to flexibility and situational adaptability
Humans have an advantage over machines not only for their creativity and social intelligence but also because they can demonstrate versatility and situational adaptability.
These skills are important for occupations requiring fewer or lower qualifications, but where craft competencies and psychomotor competencies are needed, such as cooking
and hairdressing.
2
What key competencies are needed in the digital age? |
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Education/training system
Companies
3
What key competencies are needed in the digital age? |
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4
What key competencies are needed in the digital age? |
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In the past, the complementary effects of new technology Automation therefore created a net total of 131,000 new However, the creation of new jobs in the ICT sector has had
have outweighed the substitution effects: in other words, jobs, which is about one quarter of the total number of jobs significant spill-over effects in other sectors of the economy.
automation has created more jobs than it has destroyed.2 created across Switzerland during this time.5 Applying this Calculations by Enrico Moretti, a professor at UCA Berkeley,
same proportion to the years 1990-2013, this would mean show that every job created in the hi-tech industry results
Growth in employment in Switzerland as a result of that about 200,000 of the 800,000 new jobs created during indirectly in up to five further jobs in the local economy, such
automation this period can be attributed directly to automation. as jobs for lawyers and waiters.8 In other words, although
As a previous Deloitte study has shown, these general digitalisation now creates relatively few new jobs directly, it
findings have also applied to the labour market in Transformation, not mass unemployment has created many indirectly in other industries and sectors,
Switzerland.3 For example, between 1990 and 2013 there So can we assume that past trends will continue and that such as consultancy, education and training, and health.
was little, if any, growth – and, in some cases, there were job job creation will go on exceeding job losses in future? Some
losses – in occupations that are relatively easy to automate economists and forecasters have expressed doubts about A second argument for the theory that automation will
(that is, those with a high automation probability). In contrast, to whether this will be the case.6 One of their arguments in future produce a net loss of jobs is that technological
occupations with a low automation probability were more is that technological innovation will result directly in fewer innovation is now so wide-ranging– for example, in areas
likely to grow in terms of total job numbers. Overall during new jobs in production and technological maintenance such as driverless cars and image and speech recognition –
this period, there was a net increase of around 800,000 in than has so far been the case, and that the complementary that many jobs can already be done by machines and there
the total number of jobs. However, since other factors, such effect has therefore lost some of its momentum. For is little residual space for human labour.
as demographic change and globalisation, also influenced example, in 1990, more than 8% of all employees in the US
this increase in job numbers, the study did not reach a were employed in occupations created by new technology; However, there are a number of counter-arguments
conclusion about how many of the 800,000 new jobs could a decade later, by 2000, this had fallen to 4%; and since to this view. First, a wide range of occupations are still
be attributed directly to automation. then it has fallen further, to below 1%.7 incapable of being carried out – or carried out efficiently
– by machines. These include jobs involving intellectual
A recent study by the Centre for European Economic activities, often in the service sector, and some manual
Research now enables the direct impact of automation on occupations.
employment in Switzerland to be calculated accurately for
the first time.4 This research shows that between 1999 and
2010, 103,000 jobs were lost to substitution effects and
234,000 jobs were created as a result of complementary
effects (see Figure 1).
5
What key competencies are needed in the digital age? |
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Figure 1. The impact of automation on job numbers in Switzerland, 1999-2010 (in 1,000)
The complementary relationship between
250 man and machine is often underestimated.
In the past, technological progress
has always increased employment in
200 the medium term, though it has also
transformed jobs and activities.
150
Dr. Eric Scheidegger, Deputy Director SECO
234
100
The scope for automating manual jobs can be
131 overestimated: machines often require a tailored
50 environment, outside which they cannot function.
An example of this concept, which David Autor calls
‘environmental control’ 9, is the motor car, which functions
0
efficiently only in a dedicated environment – on roads.
A car’s performance will deteriorate in an environment
-50 -103 (‘off road’) for which it is not properly equipped. It is not
always possible to adapt a working environment to the
needs of machines; one of the greatest human strengths
-100 – flexibility – is also one of the biggest limitations of
machines. Machines are at their best when carrying out
extremely specialised processes very efficiently, and the
-150
complementary use of machines and humans – combining
Substitution effect Complementary effects Total
human and technological strengths – is particularly
productive.
Sources: Gregory et al. 2016, Deloitte Research
6
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A second counter-argument is that in many cases, This is a major obstacle to machine learning,9 and although
automation does not reduce human employability but impressive progress has been made in this area, it is based Future automation will not necessarily affect
rather increases it as a result of the complementary not on genuine artificial intelligence – real understanding manual jobs more than others. Using robots
effect. As stated above, support from machines increases – but on a ‘brute force’ approach, the large-scale blind outside well-defined production facilities
human productivity. David Autor calls this the ‘O-ring application of the ‘trial and error’ principle. Combining is a challenge. In contrast, automation of
principle’2, basing his argument on the work of Michael enormous databases, software and immense computing structured office jobs has advanced rapidly,
Kremer (1993), who described the principle with reference capacity enables computers to outperform human and greater use of automation and software
to the Challenger space shuttle disaster. The disaster intelligence in controlled comparisons, such as in games is more a question of cost than of the
was caused by a defective O-ring.10 The O-ring principle of chess. However, the computers lack understanding and technology.
stipulates that the stability of a system as a whole is only as show low levels of flexibility and precision. It is possible that
good as the strength and stability of its weakest element. as computing performance improves, and with specialist Volker Stephan, Head of HR, ABB Switzerland
If this element fails, the entire system fails. Accordingly, software and self-writing and self-learning algorithms,
automating the weakest element of a human work process genuine artificial intelligence may be developed in future.
– the least productive stage – does not weaken overall However computers have a long way to go before they can This has consequences for employees, who will have to
performance and the remaining human stages, but in fact match human intelligence. undergo training if they are to adapt their competencies
strengthens them, because all activities become more in response to the changes. It also has an impact on
productive. Machines are therefore unlikely to take employment away employers, who will need to consider their future
from human beings in the foreseeable future. However they requirements for competencies and expertise. The key
A third argument is that the extent to which machine will continue to transform established sectors, occupations question is which competencies and expertise will be
learning equals or outpaces human ingenuity is and activities. Across the OECD, on average more than 40% needed from employees in the future. The following sections
questionable. It is extremely difficult to teach machines to of all employees work in companies that, over the past three of this study explore this question in more detail, and show
carry out processes that lack clear rules or unambiguous years, have introduced new technology involving changes to how competency requirements have changed over the past
descriptions something known as ‘Polanyi’s paradox’). employee activities and competencies.11 25 years and how they are likely to change in future.
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What key competencies are needed in the digital age? |
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What key competencies are needed in the digital age? |
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Figure 2. Division of the 120 individual competencies into categories and sub-categories
Requirements
Content Social System Resource
skills skills skills management skills
Complex
Process Technical
Skills problem-solving
skills skills
skills
Cognitive Psychomotor
abilities abilities
Sensory Physical
Characteristics Abilities abilities abilities
Source: O*NET
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Overview of competency requirements for Swiss Among the ‘abilities’ sub-category, cognitive abilities
employees are important in the largest percentage of occupations:
Combining O*NET data with employment data from the this indicates that competencies which are important
Structural Survey carried out by the Swiss Federal Statistical for occupations both in the service sector and for the
Office (BFS) enables us to identify the competencies most highly-qualified occupations have become much
required for more than 350 separate occupations in more significant since 1990. In contrast, the importance
Switzerland.13 This analysis assumes that the competencies of physical and psychomotor abilities and specialist
required for an occupation in Switzerland are the same as knowledge in manufacturing remains unchanged or has
in the US. Although this assumption may not always be valid actually decreased.
with respect to individual occupations, it can be assumed
that the majority of Swiss occupations require the same Figure 3 provides only a partial picture, however. One
skills as those in equivalent US occupations. The most reason for this is the way in which skills are classified: the
recent available statistics for Switzerland are for 2013. high value attached to complex problem-solving skills is
the result not least of the fact that this category represents
Figure 3 shows the proportion of the 350 occupations for a single skill. By contrast, the second- and third-placed
which each competency is at least ‘’important’ – rated 3 or skills – process skills and content skills – comprise a range
higher on the scale of 1 to 5. The competency in the ‘skills’ of individual competencies. A clearer and more detailed
sub-category that is important for the largest percentage picture emerges from an overview of all 120 individual
of occupations in Switzerland is complex problem-solving, competencies.
up from 58% in 1990 to 67% in 2013.Process and content
skills and social skills also became more important in
occupations over the same period.
10
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Health Services 5% 8%
Transportation 6% 6%
Communications 5% 7%
Psychomotor Ability 3% 4%
Knowledge, 1990 Knowledge, 2013 Skills, 1990 Skills, 2013 Abilities, 1990 Abilities, 2013
Note: The percentage figures illustrate the proportion of employees for whom that particular competency is at least ‘important’ to the exercise of their occupation, i.e. ranks ≥ 3 on a scale of 1 to 5. Sources: Federal Statistical
Office, O*NET, Deloitte Research
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What key competencies are needed in the digital age? |
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Law and public safety Law and public safety 27% 26%
Note: The percentage figure illustrates the proportion of employees for whom a particular knowledge area is at least ‘important’ to the exercise of their occupation, i.e. ranks ≥ 3 on a scale of 1 to 5.
Sources: Federal Statistical Office, O*NET, Deloitte Research
13
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Differences in the relative importance of competencies The middle section of Figure 5 shows the importance of
become clearer if total employment data are analyse ‘niche competencies’ within the ’knowledge’ category.
the new jobs created between 1990 and 2013. Some These are important for less than half of the new jobs
occupations – particularly those with a high proportion of created, but the number of jobs requiring them is
routine manual activities – saw a fall in overall employee increasing rapidly. For example, although knowledge of
numbers.14 Across all occupations, the total loss of jobs communications and media is important for only 116,000 of
was about 500,000. However over the same period, almost the 1.3 million new jobs created, there was an 86% increase
1.3 million new jobs were created and the net increase in in the number of these jobs between 1990 and 2013.
jobs was therefore around 800,000.
The right-hand section of Figure 5 shows the skills that have
For a large proportion of the 1.3 million new jobs, declined in importance. For example, 115,000 new jobs
knowledge of customer service is important, as Figure 5 were created between 1990 and 2013 for which mechanical
shows. This again reflects the large increase in the numbers knowledge is important but 165,000 others disappeared,
of employees in service occupations over recent years. leaving a net loss of 50,000 jobs.
Knowledge of customer service is followed in relative
importance by knowledge of languages. It is also not
surprising that computers and electronics have grown most
in importance among the competencies required in most
jobs (‘mass competencies’).
14
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Figure 5. Importance of ‘knowledge’ competencies for new jobs created between 1990 and 2013
39% 41%
Languages
Mathematics
Medicine
Psychology
Mechanical
Food production
Number of new jobs for which knowledge is important (1,000) Number of jobs lost for which knowledge is important (1,000)
Net growth of jobs
15
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Trends in requirements for ‘skills’ Social skills, such as social perceptiveness and coordination,
The skills of ‘active listening and speaking’ are crucial have also become more important. One reason for this
requirements for most Swiss employees: active listening is the large rise in the number of employees needing
skills are important for 95% of jobs and speaking skills such skills, such as managers across a range of sectors
for 91% (see Figure 6). These skills encompass the ability and those working in occupations with a requirement for
to convey information appropriately and are therefore social interaction and negotiation. These include doctors
essential in almost every occupation. The biggest and non-graduate healthcare staff. The number of jobs
requirement for these skills is in teaching. for non-graduate healthcare staff rose by almost 16,000
between 1990 and 2013, with a further 11,000 new jobs
There has been a marked increase since 1990 in the for healthcare assistants. There were also 18,277 new jobs
importance of skills that could be subsumed under the for social workers and 7,043 for psychologists. During this
heading of ‘creativity’, including complex problem-solving period some new occupational categories emerged.
skills. These are now important for 67% of all Swiss For example there were less than 100 conference and
employees, compared with 58% in 1990. The main reason event planners in 1990, compared with 2,800 people
is that jobs requiring high-level qualifications (such as in 2013.
doctors, lawyers, engineers and technicians) have grown
substantially in number in recent years, and complex
problem-solving skills are particularly important for them.
A majority of employees in the Swiss economy now have
advanced qualifications: for example, more than 40%
of the working age population has a higher education
qualification.15
16
What key competencies are needed in the digital age? |
The impact of automation on employees, companies and education
Note: The percentage figure illustrates the proportion of employees for whom a particular skill is at least ‘important’ to the exercise of their occupation, i.e. ranks ≥ 3 on a scale of 1 to 5.
Sources: Federal Statistical Office, O*NET, Deloitte Research
17
What key competencies are needed in the digital age? |
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Figure 7 is similar to Figure 5, but shows the importance In contrast, a number of less complex skills decreased in
of each ‚‘skills‘ competency for new jobs created and job importance over this period. These included operation
lost between 1990 and 2013, and also the percentage net and control, a skill needed to operate stationary or mobile
increase or decline in the number of jobs requiring the machinery, among others. In both these areas, there was a
skill. A range of skills are important for many of the new net loss of more than 35,000 jobs between 1990 and 2013.
jobs created in this period, such as critical thinking, writing,
and persuasion. The large number of new jobs requiring
active learning shows not only the increased importance
of training, but also the fact that although there was a big
increase in jobs within teaching and training, acquiring skills
is ultimately the responsibility of individual employees.
Among the niche skills (in the middle section of Figure 7),
programming soared in importance by 180%, representing
a net total of 57,000 new jobs. In an environment of ongoing
digitalisation, this is unsurprising, yet the importance of
programming is particularly highlighted by the fact that it
has grown most in importance overall. Skills in systems
and operational analysis, which are particularly important
for engineers, architects and systems analysts, have also
become substantially more important. Web and multimedia
designers constitute a virtually new occupational category
in this area, with numbers rising from almost zero in 1990 to
more than 4,000 in 2013.
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What key competencies are needed in the digital age? |
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Figure 7. Importance of ‘skills’ for new jobs created between 1990 and 2013
1,229 180%
1,202 1,186 1,162 1,152
1,090 1,076 1,074 1,038 1,011 994
863 835 95% 94%
89%
84%
661
580 538
59% 62%
47% 44%
36% 38% 34%
26% 30% 29% 26% 33% 143 114
24% 24% 63 72 89
11 30 20
-43 -6 -31 -7 -27 0 -53 -40
-96
-151 -182 -164 -190 -161
-226 -256 -251 -238
-278 -306
-384 -344
-452 -10% -11% -9% -10%
-501 -15%
Systems analysis
Active listening
Speaking
Critical thinking
Monitoring
Reading comprehension
Coordination
Social perceptiveness
Time management
Writing
Complex problem-solving
Active learning
Service orientation
Persuasion
Programming
Operations analysis
Systems evaluation
Installation
Operation monitoring
Troubleshooting
Equipment maintenance
Number of new jobs for which skill is important (1,000) Number of jobs lost for which skill is important (1,000) Net growth in jobs
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What key competencies are needed in the digital age? |
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What key competencies are needed in the digital age? |
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Note: The percentage figure illustrates the proportion of employees for whom a particular ability is at least ‘important’ to the exercise of their occupation, i.e. ranks ≥ 3 on a scale of 1 to 5.
Sources: Federal Statistical Office, O*NET, Deloitte Research
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Figure 9 is similar to Figures 5 and 7, showing the There was some reduction in the number of jobs for
importance of particular abilities for new jobs created which physical abilities, such as physical coordination, are
and jobs lost between 1990 and 2013, and the increase or important. The net loss of jobs needing finger dexterity
decline in the number of jobs for which the competency and finger speed is an indication particularly that this
is important. A number of competencies increased in ability, required for operating machinery and typing, have
importance both in absolute terms (number of jobs) declined in importance with the increase in automation.
and in relative terms during the period. There were
significant increases in jobs requiring basic abilities such The most important ‘niche’ ability – high-speed strength
as as near vision, which is crucial for the operation of – may seem at first glance to be out of line with the trend
machines and computers. There were large percentage of declining importance of physical abilities. However,
increases in abilities that underpin creativity, such as this niche ability has an importance rating of 3 or more
problem sensitivity, deductive reasoning and inductive for only two occupations: athletes and professional
reasoning. The number of jobs for which fluency of ideas sportsmen and sportswomen; and prison officers. Across
is important also grew markedly, demonstrating that these two categories, only around 2,000 new jobs were
the world of work has become more complex and more created between 1990 and 2013.
demanding, and attaches much greater importance than
in the past to competencies such as creativity.
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Figure 9. Importance of abilities for new jobs created between 1990 and 2013
1,298 166%
1,251 1,229 1,220 1,208 1,202 1,197 1,189
1,132 1,111
1,033 1,025 115%
94%
836 75%
786
77% 643
43%
28% 31% 31% 33% 32% 26%
24% 23% 23% 23% 26% 27%
141 143
2 0.3 2 0 7 2 48
0 0 0 -4 -49 -9
-60 -52 -80
-187 -215 -173
-303 -284 -289
-356 -338 -8% -4%
-389 -18% -11%
-455 -438 -32%
-520 -513 -504 -509
-88%
Near vision
Oral comprehension
Oral expression
Problem sensitivity
Understanding of language
Speech clarity
Deductive reasoning
Written comprehension
Inductive reasoning
Written expression
Selective attention
Fluency of ideas
High-speed strength
Glare sensitivity
Spatial orientation
Flexibility
Originality
Guidance control
Dynamic strength
Depth perception
Precision control
Multi-limb coordination
Information ordering
Number of new jobs for which ability is important (1,000) Number of jobs lost for which ability is important (1,000) Net growth in jobs
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There seems to be wide agreement that the advance of Indicators for assessing future potential Competencies that are particularly future-proof include
automation and digitalisation will continue to transform We have used two indicators to identify a range of those that give human employees the edge over machines
the competency requirements for employees over the competencies for which the Swiss labour market will (and are therefore almost impossible to automate) and
coming years. However, it is difficult to predict exactly how have a particular need in the near future and which are those for which there is strong demand in the labour
the importance of each specific individual competency very difficult to automate. The first is an extrapolation of market demand and/or for which new jobs will be created.
will change, or which competencies have a low capacity employment numbers for the period 1990-2013 to predict In the analysis that follows, we divide these future-proof
for automation and will therefore be in demand in the competency requirements in the period to 2030: this competencies between the three O*NET categories:
labour market. Technological change cannot be predicted is intended to highlight the sectors that will be creating ‘knowledge’, ‘skills’ and ‘abilities’.
accurately predicted, so any attempt to look into the future large numbers of jobs (see Box). Very recent technological
is inevitably subject to uncertainty. Even so, it is possible to developments that have not yet had an impact on
make certain assumptions as the basis for models that will employment, and future technological developments, are
help to predict future trends. excluded from this analysis, and we have therefore used a
second indicator – capacity for automation or protection
against automation – to identify ‘automation probability’.
The lower the capacity for automation of a particular
competency, the more unlikely it is that a machine or
software program will replicate it over the coming years.
(Competencies and jobs with a low capacity for automation
are referred to here as ‘future-proof’.)
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Future requirements for ‘knowledge’ The future looks gloomier for jobs for which production,
Knowledge of languages offers a good level of protection mechanical and food production knowledge is important,
against automation and scope for substantial job because of its relatively high correlation with automation
creation (see Figure 10). The size of the circle for language probability. In other words, the more important this
competency in the Figure shows that by 2030, more than knowledge competency is to an occupation, the higher the
600,000 new jobs are likely to be created for which linguistic occupation’s capacity for automation. Job losses are likely to
knowledge will be important. This area of knowledge will continue in these sectors, although this prediction does not
also be important for more than 90% of existing jobs by apply to all occupations requiring mechanical knowledge:
2030, as the position of the circle on horizontal axis of the there will also be job opportunities if this specialist
diagram shows. knowledge can be combined with other skills, as in the case
with mechanical engineers and mechanical electricians for
The capacity for automation of knowledge in the areas of example.
psychology, sociology and anthropology is lower. In contrast
with knowledge of languages, however, these competencies
are ‘niche knowledge areas’, which will be important for only
a small proportion of new jobs created. Nevertheless, jobs
requiring these knowledge competencies will grow by about
30% in importance by 2030. Knowledge of computers and
electronics will also become increasingly important, and will
be needed for about half of all new jobs and half of existing
jobs by 2030, up from 40% in 1990 when computers and
electronics were still a niche knowledge area.
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What key competencies are needed in the digital age? |
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High
The size of the dot indicates how
many new jobs will be created by
2030 for which this knowledge will
Mechanical be important. Blue dots indictate
Food Production that there will be job losses.
Production and Processing 700,000
Building and Construction
Transportation
Capacity for automation
Low
0 50 100
Proportion of jobs as percentage of total employment for which this knowledge will be important in 2030
Sources: Federal Statistical Office, O*NET, Frey and Osborne 2013, Deloitte Research
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Future requirements for ‘skills’ Skills in programming and mathematics do not have a
A cluster of individual skills are particularly future-proof, as particularly low capacity for automation, and therefore offer It is increasingly important to think
Figure 11 shows. These include basic skills, such as writing, ‘only’ a high, but not very high, level of protection against about customers right across the value
speaking, reading comprehension and critical thinking, automation and job losses. We shall return in detail to the chain. In future, both companies and
which are the basis for acquiring further, more specific, reasons for this at the end of this section. individual employees will be thinking
skills. These more specific skills can be sub-divided into about integrated processes and the
two groups: skills that can be grouped under the general necessary process knowledge, rather than
heading of ‘creativity’, such as complex problem-solving, distinguishing between isolated products
and social intelligence skills, including social perceptiveness. and product knowledge.
Niche skills include systems skills, such as systems analysis Volker Stephan, Head of HR, ABB Switzerland
and systems evaluation, which are required mainly by
employees who handle sociotechnical systems (such as
software developers and web developers). Both will be
important for carrying out 40% of the roughly million new
jobs expected by 2030 – some 400,000 newly-created jobs.
They account for about 30% of all jobs in, highlighting that
these two skills will have grown substantially in relative
importance.
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What key competencies are needed in the digital age? |
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High
Equipment The size of the dot indicates how
Maintenance many new jobs will be created by
Operation and Control
2030 for which this skill will be
Repairing important. Blue dots indicate that
Operation Monitoring
there will be job losses.
Troubleshooting 700,000
Quality Control Analysis
Installation
Capacity for automation
Coordination
Time Management
Operations Analysis
Systems Evaluation
Instructing
Proportion of jobs as a percentage of total employment for which this skill will be important in 2030
Sources: Federal Statistical Office, O*NET, Frey and Osborne 2013, Deloitte Research
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Future requirements for ‘abilities’ Physical and psychomotor abilities, such as extent flexibility
Clustering is even more marked with abilities than with and dynamic strength, offer little future employment
skills. The right-hand side of Figure 12 groups shows abilities potential: they wil probably be relatively easy to automate
that are particularly future-proof. These can be grouped in future, and will therefore be less in demand in the labour
into two categories: basic abilities; and logic and creativity. market.
As with skills, basic abilities are the basis for developing
the second group, logic and creativity. The greater an
individual’s abilities in oral and written expression, and
ability to understand and reproduce information orally
and in writing, the better he or she will perform in terms
of deductive reasoning, inductive reasoning and problem
sensitivity.
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High
The size of the dot indicates how
Extent Flexibility many new jobs will be created by
Static Strength 2030 for which this ability will be
Trunk Strength important. Blue dots indictate that
Dynamic Strength there will be job losses.
Arm-Hand Steadiness 700,000
Reaction Time
Gross Body Coordination Finger Dexterity
Capacity for automation
Depth Perception
Proportion of jobs as percentage of total employment for which this ability will be important in 2030
Sources: Federal Statistical Office, O*NET, Frey and Osborne 2013, Deloitte Research
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Which are the most future-proof competencies? ‘Requirements’ are employment-related attributes that
As we have seen, a number of competencies in knowledge, can be acquired and/or developed through training
skills and abilities can be considered future-proof. However, and experience, such as specialist knowledge and skills.
identifying competences that are future-proof provides only ‘Characteristics’ are long-term and/or innate attributes that
a partial answer to the question asked at the beginning of influence performance and the capacity of individuals to
this section – how important will individual competencies acquire or develop knowledge, skills and abilities.
be in the labour market in future, given a background of
increasing automation? As well as identifying individual
future-proof competencies, it is important to identify their
interaction and interdependencies.
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Requirements Characteristics
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Requirements: the importance of creativity, The same is true of employees with a high degree of social Three of the four competencies in the technology area have
social intelligence and ICT intelligence in addition to the basic competencies in a high capacity for automation and only one has a very high
Future-proof ‘requirements’ can be sub-divided into a Figure 14. Social intelligence includes social perceptiveness, capacity. As OECD research has shown, a combination of
number of areas (see Figure 14). The first of these is ‘basic persuasion and negotiation. Although algorithms and robots ICT-specific skills with social skills or creativity is likely to be
competencies’, which include reading comprehension, are able to reproduce certain aspects of human interaction, particularly important in future.17 Our analysis points to the
speaking, critical thinking and active learning. Basic they are not well equipped to identify human emotions and same conclusion: where ICT skills are bundled with social
competencies are the basis for acquiring more advanced react appropriately.16 skills or creativity, there is a higher negative correlation with
competencies, primarily creativity and social intelligence. automation probability, and therefore a higher degree of
There are both ‘mass competencies’, which are required Niche competencies are grouped into three areas: health, protection against automation. This is particularly evident
for a large number of different occupations, and ‘niche training and communications. These will be particularly with programming skills: taken on their own, they have a
competencies’ which apply to a smaller number of specialist important for a smaller group of occupations than mass -0.35 correlation with automation probability, and so have
occupations. Creativity and social intelligence are almost competencies. In the health area in particular, growth in jobs a medium capacity for automation. However, when they
exclusively mass competencies, which are already important over the next few years will be particularly strong. As the are combined with complex problem-solving skills, the
for many occupations and are likely to gain in importance padlock symbols in Figure 14 show, knowledge itself has a correlation coefficient rises to more than -0.60, providing
in future. high capacity for automation in medical and therapy and by considerably greater protection against automation.
itself does not offer very high protection against automation.
Creativity involves creating something new: it includes However, employees who are able to combine knowledge
solving complex problems that require non-standard with a high level of social intelligence are likely to enjoy good
solutions. Where creative decision-making and flexible opportunities in the labour market in future.
problem-solving are important in an occupation, humans
will continue to have an advantage over machines in the Figure 14 shows two requirements, systems understanding
future.16 Employees who have good basic competencies and technology that lie between mass competencies and
alongside a high level of creativity are therefore likely to be niche competencies. Each of these requirements includes
well-equipped for the future. competencies that are important for the broad mass of
employees and some that are important for a smaller
number. Both requirements are particularly important
for occupations in the information and communications
technology (ICT) sector.
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Social intelligence
Social perceptiveness Coordination Negotiation
Complementary competencies
Systems understanding
Judgement and decision-making Systems analysis Systems evaluation
Technology
Computers and electronics Operational analysis Technology design Programming
Health
Medicine Therapy Psychology
Training
Education and training
Communications
Communications and media
competencies*
Science
Speaking Languages Mathematics
Active learning Monitoring
Knowledge: Very high level of protection against automation Knowledge: High level of protection against automation
Skills: Very high level of protection against automation Skills: High level of protection against automation
* Basic competencies offer necessary but not sufficient protection against automation
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Flexibility/adaptability
Category Flexibility Perception
Flexibility of closure
Mathematical abilities
Mathematical reasoning
Number facility
competencies*
Very high level of protection against automation High level of protection against automation
*Basic competencies offer necessary but not sufficient protection against automation
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Interaction between social and mathematical The main reason for this is that employees with high
competencies levels of social competencies work mainly in non-routine
It is noticeable in Figures 14 and 15 that technical, activities that are more difficult to automate and, because of
mathematical and ICT competencies often provide only digitalisation, increasingly form part of flexible organisational
medium levels of protection against automation, although structures and working practices, which require high levels
it is generally agreed that they are already important for of communication and organisational competency.
the labour market and are likely to become even more
important in future. They are also particularly important As Figure 16 shows, this is true not only in general but also
when combined with other competencies. specifically in the Swiss labour market, at least as far as
employment is concerned. Using a similar methodology
A study by Harvard University shows that employment and to the Harvard study, we have found that the number of
pay levels in the US have dropped since 1980 in occupations Swiss employees who combine high levels of mathematical
that require high levels of mathematical competencies competencies and excellent social competencies has risen
(number facility and knowledge and competencies in markedly, and the number is likely to continue rising up
mathematics) but low levels of social competencies (social to 2030. The occupations include, for example, architects,
perceptiveness, coordination, persuasion and negotiation).19 engineers and managers in the financial sector, which
rely on good social competencies for cooperation with
The opposite is true when a high level of both mathematical both customers and team colleagues. This contrasts with
competencies and social competencies is required. In other occupations that require high levels of mathematical
words, mathematical competencies are important but competencies but low levels of social competencies: here,
confer far greater advantage on the labour market when job numbers are stagnating or, at best, growing only very
they can be combined with other competencies. In contrast, slightly. This includes many occupations, such as credit or
social competencies appear to be in particularly high financial analysts, where the work is performed relatively
demand both alone and in combination with mathematical autonomously and where employees are therefore less
competencies. reliant on cooperation with customers or team members.
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Figure 16. Growth in jobs requiring social and mathematical competencies (Base: 1990=100)
250
200
150
100
50
High-level of social and high-level of mathematical competencies High-level of social and low-level of mathematical competencies
Low-level social and high-level of mathematical competencies Low-level social and low-level of mathematical competencies
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What key competencies are needed in the digital age? |
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Flexibility and versatility offer future prospects for But what are the prospects for non-highly qualified
those with lower qualifications employees who have craft competencies and high levels
So far, we have demonstrated that employees with high of physical and psychomotor competencies, but for
levels of basic competencies and also excellent creative or whom it is difficult to acquire high levels of creative and
social competencies are likely to enjoy very good prospects social competencies? As studies by David Autor show,
in the labour market in the future. The same is true for ICT the digital age offers some prospects for this group, too.9
and technical competencies and for niche competencies Individuals have an advantage over machines, not only
in the areas of health, communications and training: in the area of creative and social intelligence, but also in
individuals who are able to combine such knowledge with terms of their versatility, flexibility and capacity to adapt to
creative or social competencies are best placed to prosper situations. It is still relatively difficult for machines to react
in the digital age. This applies in particular to occupations to unexpected situations and to communicate on that
for which high qualification levels are needed. basis. This is the main reason why new jobs will most likely
continue to be created in occupations such as hairdressing
and food preparation, for example.
40
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5. What does this mean for the education and training system?
In the previous sections, we have identified different groups The education system is also characterised by a relatively Expressed as a percentage of the total working age
of competencies that will be in particularly high demand high level of permeability between vocational training population, around 40% of Swiss nationals now have
in the digital age and do not easily lend themselves to and academic training. This is a particular advantage in a tertiary level qualification, and the Federal Statistical
automation. In this section, we now turn our attention to the digital age. Structural change driven by automation Office estimates that this figure is likely to rise to 50% by
the implications for education and training institutions in and digitalisation is destroying certain occupations and 2025.21 As research shows, high qualification levels offer
Switzerland. How can the training system equip workers creating others. As explained in section 2, this means good protection against automation, since they require or
in the future to respond to automation and digitalisation? that although there is net job creation, jobs are also being involve high levels of competency in the areas of creativity,
And how can it be sure it is training for the right skills while transformed both within and between sectors. Some of the generation of ideas and logical thinking, and also social
at the same time enabling those already in work to acquire people affected are having to switch sectors and train for intelligence.22
new, future-oriented skills? an entirely new occupation. Because the training system
in Switzerland is relatively permeable, such switching is As a result, there is less need for universities and
Relatively high permeability and high qualification comparatively easy, although there may be some obstacles universities of applied sciences to question whether they
levels in practice. For example, an individual who has completed are teaching the right skills. However, there is still some
Switzerland enjoys an excellent international status in the a course of vocational training or an apprenticeship still concern about the low proportion of graduates with
area of training. The ‘Higher education and training’ pillar has the option many years later to undertake a second qualifications in MINT subjects (mathematics, information
of the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness apprenticeship, engage in higher-level vocational training technology, natural sciences and technology) and in
Report 2016-2017 ranks Switzerland in first place.20 or complete a vocational school diploma (‘Berufsmatura’), medicine. A number of improvements could be made:
The Swiss training system is based on two elements, followed by study at a university of applied sciences. adapting the priorities of more academic secondary
vocational training and academic training, and ensures schools and placing greater emphasis on MINT subjects,
broad labour market integration and career-focused Further advantages of the education and training system, as well as expanding heath training, adjusting university
training and specialisation for young people. It is one of in relation to the changes in labour market requirements tuition fees, and optimising the proportion of different
the main contributors to the country’s low level of youth occasioned by automation and digitalisation, are the school curricula to the needs of following education
unemployment. relatively high level of permeability within the training programs and occupations.
system and the increasing number of employees with a
tertiary level qualification (a degree or advanced vocational
training).
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Basic education: a greater focus on teaching ICT Vocational training: a need to accelerate the process
competencies With its ‘dual’ training system, Switzerland Action is also required in the area of vocational training.
There is a need for action in the area of basic compulsory is fundamentally well equipped for Although most training has a high level of practical
education, which should improve its promotion of social skills. digitalisation and the challenges it will orientation, so that the necessary specialist competencies
Although there no ‘one size fits all’ approach to teaching social bring. It will, however, also need to make are identified and developed, it can sometimes be slow
intelligence, there is general agreement that a greater focus on some adaptations, such as focusing more in responding to short- and medium-term changes
group and project work, interviews and presentations is likely on MINT subjects, improving training in requirements. One reason for this is that different
to help. Research has also suggested that there are benefits efficiency and increasing harmonisation. stakeholders need to be involved in adapting an occupation
to be obtained from developing social intelligence as early as or the competencies required for it (professional associations,
pre-school education.23 Valentin Vogt, President, Swiss Employers‘ government agencies, the cantons, etc.) and this is very
Association time-consuming. It is worth looking for ways to speed up this
There is also a need to update the ICT competencies process so that the provision of training courses responds
element of basic education. Knowledge of computers and more rapidly to changes in the labour market without
electronics has evolved over recent years from a niche Teachers have a vital role to play in helping students develop jeopardising the quality of the training on offer.
competency to a mass competency. At the same time, the these competencies, and they will require targeted in-service
importance of skills in programming, systems analysis and training to keep them up to date with new developments As well as teaching specific technical competencies, it is
systems evaluation has risen substantially and will continue and maintain their mastery of the basic functions of digital becoming increasingly important that vocational training
to increase in the future. It is therefore essential that young technologies. Teacher training should also increase its focus systems should focus more on general education and
people should acquire ICT competencies early in their on ICT competencies. The same applies to school principals, specifically on the basic competencies identified in section
education. A first step in this direction was the ‘Lehrplan 21’ who have a key influence on the teaching framework 4, such as mathematics and languages. Increasingly,
(‘Curriculum 21’) initiative, which made media and computing provided by the school and on its teaching staff. A high level automation will involve the loss of jobs that comprise
a separate specialist subject in schools.24 However, the of permeability is also desirable in the teaching profession, mainly routine tasks, and will accelerate the transformation
focus must shift from learning how to use digital devices to and there should be initiatives to facilitate career changers of jobs both within and between sectors. Employees are
understanding the way in which digital technology works from the private sector to retrain as teachers: their ICT therefore unlikely to see their future as training for a single
and the organisation and structuring of data. This will foster competencies and practical work experience more generally occupation, in which they will remain all their lives.
competencies in a number of areas such as creativity, offer a highly relevant and authentic preparation of trainees
technology or systems understanding – key competencies in for their subsequent working lives and increase, diversify and
the digital age. renew the experience and competencies of the teaching staff
across the board.
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Additional education or further training will also help Figure 17. Participation in non-formal continuing training activities by 25-64 year-olds
employees who lose their job as a result of structural
change to find new employment. 79% 79%
80% 75% 76% 75% 76%
71%
70% 66% 68% 70% 68%
Further measures to increase the relatively low proportion 62%
60% 60%
of those with low qualification levels who engage in further 60% 55%
53% 51%
training – might include reducing barriers created by time or 51%
50% 44%
regulatory constraints. For example, consideration might be 43%
given to whether an older career-changer should undergo 40%
31%
exactly the same vocational training and obtain the same 30%
22% 23%
qualification as a school-leaver, or whether re-training for 18%
20% 17%
career changers could be tailored more to the individual’s
situation and experience. Career changers already have 10%
qualifications and experience, so for them retraining could 0%
be targeted at filling the gaps in their skills. In many cases, 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011
this would save both time and expense, and would also Compulsory education Vocational education General education Advanced vocational education University
Switzerland has one of the highest continuing training quotas of any country around the world.
However, it serves those with low skills levels worse than those with higher skills levels. There is
work to be done here.
Josef Widmer, Deputy Director, State Secretariat for Education, Research and Innovation
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Knowledge
Business and Manufacturing and Engineering and Mathematics and Health services Education and Arts and humanities Law and public Communications Transport
Management production technology science training safety
Administration and Production and Computers and Mathematics Medicine and Education and Languages Public Safety and Telecommunications Transport
Management Processing Electronics Dentistry Training Security
Physics Foreign Language Communications and
Clerical Food Production Engineering and Therapy and Law and Government Media
Chemistry Fine Arts
Technology Counseling
Economics and
Biology History and Archeology
Accounting Design
Psychology Philosophy and Theology
Sales and Marketing Building and
Construction Sociology and
Customer and
Anthropology
Personal Service Mechanical
Geography
Personnel and
Human Resources
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Skills
Content skills Process skills Social skills Complex problem-solving Technical skills System skills Resource management skills
skills
Judgment and Decision Time Management
Reading Comprehension Critical Thinking Social Perceptiveness Operations Analysis
Complex Problem Solving Making
Management of Financial
Active Listening Active Learning Coordination Technology Design
Systems Analysis Resources
Writing Learning Strategies Persuasion Equipment Selection
Systems Evaluation Management of Material
Speaking Monitoring Negotiation Installation Resources
Equipment Maintenance
Troubleshooting
Repairing
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Abilities
Cognitive Psychomotor Physical Sensory
Number Facility
Memorization
Speed of Closure
Flexibility of Closure
Perceptual Speed
Spatial Orientation
Visualization
Selective Attention
Time Sharing
Source: O*NET
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Endnotes
1. Swiss Federal Council (2017): Report by the Federal Council on the 11. OECD (2013): OECD Skills Outlook 2013. First results from the 22. Deloitte (2016): Structural change creates jobs. How automation
key requirements for the digital economy. survey of adult skills. will impact employment in Switzerland.
2. Autor, David (2015): Why are there still so many jobs? The history 12. Deloitte (2016): The workplace of the future. How digital 23. Deming, David J. (2015): The growing importance of social skills in
and future of workplace automation, vol. 29, no. 3, pp. 3-30 technology and the sharing economy are changing the Swiss the labor market.
workforce.
3. Deloitte (2015): Man and machine: robots on the rise? The impact 24. http://www.lehrplan21.ch/
of automation on the Swiss job market. 13. Deloitte conducted a similar study in the United Kingdom: see
25. Avenir Suisse (2016): Den Schulabschluss als Einstieg verstehen
Deloitte (2015), Talent for survival.
4. Gregory, Terry, Salomons, Anna and Ulrich Zierahn (2016): Racing [Understanding school-leaving qualifications as an entry
with or against the machine? Evidence from Europe. 14. Deloitte (2015): Man and machine: robots on the rise? The impact qualification]. http://www.avenir-suisse.ch/61918/bildungssystem_
of automation on the Swiss job market. den-schulabschluss-als-einstieg-verstehen/
5. Federal Statistical Office (2017): Wichtige Arbeitsmarktindikatoren.
Erwerbstätige. [Key labour market indicators. Employees] https:// 15. Federal Statistical Office (2016): Bildungsstand der 26. Eurostat (2016): http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/
www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/de/home/statistiken/arbeit-erwerb/ Wohnbevölkerung nach Alter und Geschlecht (Education levels by index.php/File:Lifelong_learning,_2010_and_2015_(%C2%B9)_
erwerbstaetigkeit-arbeitszeit.assetdetail.330916.html [in German] age and gender]. (%25_of_the_population_aged_25_to_64_participating_in_
education_and_training)_YB16.png; sowie Economist (2017):
6. Brynjolfsson, Erik and Andrew McAfee (2011): Race against the 16. Frey, Carl Benedikt and Michael A. Osborne (2013): The future of Learning and earning.
machine: how the digital revolution is accelerating innovation, employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation?
driving productivity, and irreversibly transforming employment 27. BFS (2013): Lebenslanges Lernen in der Schweiz. Ergebnisse des
17. Berger, Thor and Carl Benedikt Frey (2016): Structural
and the economy. Mikrozensus Aus- und Weiterbildung 2011.
transformation in the OECD. Digitalisation, deindustrialisation and
7. Berger, Thor and Carl Benedikt Frey (2016): Structural the future of work; OECD (2013): OECD Skills Outlook 2013. First 28. The Economist (2017) (Special Report), Learning and earning:
transformation in the OECD. Digitalisation, deindustrialisation and results from the survey of adult skills. cognition switch. What employers can do to encourage their
the future of work. workers to retrain.
18. Davies, Anna, Fidler, Devin and Marina Gorbis (2011): Future work
8. Moretti, Enrico (2010): Local multipliers, in: American Economic skills 2020. University of Phoenix Research Institute.
Review: Papers & Proceedings 100: pp. 1-7.
19. Deming, David J. (2015): The growing importance of social skills in
9. Autor, David (2014): Polanyi’s paradox and the shape of the labor market.
employment growth. NBER Working Paper no. 20485.
20. World Economic Forum (2016): The Global Competitiveness
10. Kremer, Michael (1993), The O-ring theory of economic Report 2016-2017.
development, in: The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 108,
21. Federal Statistical Office (2015): Szenarien zur
issue 3 (August 1993), pp. 551-575
Bevölkerungsentwicklung der Schweiz 2015-2045 [Scenarios for
demographic growth in Switzerland 2015-2045].
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What key competencies are needed in the digital age? |
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Contacts
Main contacts Authors
Myriam Denk
Head of Human Capital, Zürich
+41 58 279 6792
mydenk@deloitte.ch
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Notes
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What key competencies are needed in the digital age? |
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Notes
56
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