Scientia Horticulturae 181 (2015) 108–112

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Scientia Horticulturae
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/scihorti

Application of Artificial Neural Networks to predict the final fruit

weight and random forest to select important variables in native
population of melon (Cucumis melo. Pahlavan)
Mohammad Reza Naroui Rad ∗ , Shirali koohkan, Hamid Reza Fanaei,
Mohammad Reza Pahlavan Rad
Agriculture and Natural Resources Research Center of Sistan, Iran

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The estimation of the relation between the inconstant factors can be highly helpful for calculating the
Received 28 June 2014 amount of variation of a particular character with respect to others. This paper aims to study the effects
Received in revised form 11 October 2014 of different agronomic and phenologic factors on the total mass of melon fruit produced. The agronomic
Accepted 14 October 2014
and phenologic factors which were considered during the study included, plant length, fruit weight, fruit
length, fruit width, number of fruits per each plant, number of days to flowering, number of days to
Keywords:
maturity, number of days to fruit formation, fruit cavity diameter and flesh diameter were the other
Melon
characters under study. During the study, every plant was taken as a self-sustaining unit. The study
Artificial Neural Network (ANN)
Fruit weight
explains a procedure to foretell the yield of melon by applying the Artificial Neural Networks or ANNs
Model as a displaying instrument. In the study the accession Firoozi was calculated with high accuracy and
Sistan efficacy (R2 = 87%, EMP = 2.21 and MSD = 1.66). RF yield variable importance measures for each candidate
Random forest predictor and in this study flesh diameter examined as effective variable in identifying the true predictor
among the candidate predictors.
© 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
The melon production in Sistan suffers from a number of issues.
First of all there is a scarcity of commercially available varieties of
melons that can serve to the customer requirements such as proper
size of the fruit; low capacity to fight against pests, infections,
and drought as well as different variations in different ecosys-
tems makes the other reasons. Moreover, in Sistan, melon surpasses
the popularity of other fruit. To solve these issues, plant breeders
can employ techniques for genetical improvement of the melon
plants and evaluate the new varieties against the older ones. As
per the reports of 2013, Sistan, located in the south east of Iran,
is a huge producer of melons with 6000 ha of land allotted alone
for melon cultivation. After the genetical development programs
were initiated in Iran, the new genotypes were compared against
the genotypes of the melon plants from different other areas of
Iran (Naroui Rad et al., 2010). Depending on the outcomes of the
study the native melon population of the Firoozi in Sistan was
∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +98 542 2225026; fax: +98 542 2226328.
E-mail address: narouirad@gmail.com (M.R. Naroui Rad).
suggested due to their superior class and taste (Naroui Rad et al.,
2010). The process of estimation of the newly formed genotypes
included different features during the production cycle. Features
like, height of the plant, weight, length and diameter of the fruit,
number of fruits produced by each plant, and quick ripening were
considered to select the melon plants with superior quality; and
these plants with superior traits were suggested to cultivate in the
area(Nasrabadi et al., 2012). The proper information about these
features of the plant and how they are related with the final quality
of the fruit produced can be helpful for the farmers to take cru-
cial decisions like financing, in advance (Naroui Rad et al., 2010).
For the purpose of managing production and statistical estima-
tions application of different modeling techniques to forecast the
expected harvest is essential, and it can be done with perfection
only with the help of advanced calculations of the method of pro-
duction and perfect valuation of different factors involved. The
latest era has introduced the advanced Artificial Neural Network
tools for solving critical issues. ANNs work depending on direct
inter-relations of different elements that are capable to point out
the connection between entrance and exit signals depending on the
provided patterns. These elements are marked as neurons of the
ANNs. The advantage of this advanced method is that it supports

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2014.10.025
0304-4238/© 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
 M.R. Naroui Rad et al. / Scientia Horticulturae 181 (2015) 108–112
uncomplicated simulations and do not need any type of analyti-
cal formulation. A number of researchers have used this technique
in different aspects of yield management and cultivation particu-
larly for predicting the total yield (Bala et al., 2005; Movagharnejad
and Nikzad, 2007; Zhang et al., 2007). ANNs are considered as one
of the most efficient, precise and extensively used techniques for
data mining and predicting. Studies have proved that a network
has the capacity to estimate any function to the expected level of
precision (Solaimany-Aminabad et al., 2013). The high importance
placed on Neural Network at the recent times can be attributed
to their non-linear models that can locate the past and future val-
ues in an input–output connection (Zhang et al., 2012). As clearly
mentioned by Hoogenboom (2000), these models are capable to
learn relationships between data, independently, which makes it
much suitable for cases where mathematical modeling cannot be
performed. As reported by Jiang et al. (2004), the Artificial Neu-
ral Network Models trained with the back-propagation algorithm
can be very appropriate for predicting the harvest of the winter
wheat by applying the information of remote sensing. Uno et al.
(2005) reported about using the Artificial Neural Networks and
a number of statistical methods that considered different factors
of the plant for predicting the net harvest of maize; and Higgins
et al. (2010) were found that the ANNs model was more accu-
rate. The proposal of Random Forests a method for classification
or regression based on the repeated growing of trees through the
introduction of a random perturbation, tries to manage these sit-
uations averaging the outcome of a great number of models fitted
to the same dataset. As a sub product of this technique, the iden-
tification of variables which are important in a great number of
models provides suggestions (Breiman, 2001). Several studies have
found by researchers about correlation and regression analysis. In
earlier report, Feyzian et al. (2009) reported, it seems that increas-
ing crown diameter leads to an increase in the power of uptaking
minerals and, therefore, to increases in fruit weight in melon also
by regression analysis, total yield was affected by fruit weight. In
correlation studies with melon, yield per plant has been reported
to be positively correlated with the number of fruits, average fruit
weight, number of nodes on the main stem, stem length, internode
length, and fruit shape index and most of plant breeders interested
to know which trait could be a best predictor for plant yield (Taha
et al., 2003). Hence, the objective of this paper is not only to come
up with a method to apply ANNs to forecast the fruit weight of
melon but also using random forest approach to know the best
predictor.
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Experimental site and seeding
The study was conducted in the Agriculture and Natural
Resource Research Station of Zahak, situated in Sistan and Baluchis-
tan, at the south-east of Iran. Located at 61◦ 41 South latitude
and 30◦ 54 longitude, the center enjoys a yearly precipitation of
59 mm, and the average temperature of the place is 23 ◦ C. The
area resides at 482 m height from the sea level. The study was
basically an examination for improvement of the melon produce
which was conducted on the native melon accessions (Firoozi)
selected by the farmers for sale over the other varieties due to
their enhanced quality. The study included total 116 melon plants
that were distributed in 5 rows with 33 plants in each of the
rows planted at a distance of 2 m × 0.5 m from each other. In the
study, each plant was taken as a separate unit, and the analyses
covered two production cycles for each of the plants. The plants
were watered through a traditional channel system after every 10
days.
109
2.2. Evaluated traits
The evaluations were done during the maturing of the fruits. The
traits calculated during the study include:
(a) plant length,
(b) fruit weight,
(c) fruit length,
(d) fruit width,
(e) number of fruits per plant,
(f) number of days to flowering,
(g) number of days to maturity,
(h) number of days to fruit formation,
(i) fruit cavity diameter,
(j) flesh diameter.
2.3. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs)
Artificial Neural Networks are created by direct relationships
between elements known as neurons which are capable to point
out the connection between entrance and exit signals in particular
forms, just like the functioning of the neural system in the human
body (Haykin, 2008). Many ANNs models with several layers were
executed with the help of Satistica version 10 and Excel to find out
the one with most accurate predications for weight of the melon
fruit. The model was made with three layers, the first of which
included all the traits except the weight of the fruit. The second
layer, was a hidden layer that included 5 neurons; and the out-
put layer had only one neuron to conclude the weight of the fruit
body.
The number of hidden layers and hidden units that might be
perfectly suitable for ANNs depends on a number of factors, such
as, the level of complexity of its structure, total number of input
as well as output units, number of samples used in training, the
extent of noise in the sample set, and the algorithm used for training
(Movagharnejad and Nikzad, 2007; Erzin et al., 2008; Panda et al.,
2010; Zhang et al., 2011). In most of the cases, one or two hidden
layers are highly helpful (Erzin et al., 2008).
2.4. Running of the model
The back-propagation algorithm has been used in training the
ANNs models used in this research work. This algorithm has a
multi-layer network which performs weight tuning as per the sig-
moid function like the delta rule. The back propagation algorithm
is basically a feed-forward process for training the ANNs with sev-
eral layers. The steps involved in the training include: (a) input of
vectors into the network, (b) estimation of the output from the net-
work, (c) the error which is calculated from the difference between
the input and output vector values is fed back to the network, (d)
finally the weight vectors are changed depending on the algorithm.
The algorithm needs a network based architecture differentiated in
a number of layers completely linked with the next. A basic struc-
ture of network can include single input layer, one hidden layer and
an output layer. The primary objective of the method is to famil-
iarize the weights according to the estimated errors in-presence of
input configurations. The method is employed in a backward direc-
tion, that is, from the output layer to the input layer. The first 70
percent of the data set was taken as a training set and the next 30
percent as a testing set for ANNs. The entries were first standardized
with 0.00–1.00 values and as the training advanced, the weights
were fine tuned to minimize the degree of error in the outcome.
For selecting the most accurate network a number of parameters,
such as R2 : the coefficient of determination, MPE: mean prediction
110 M.R. Naroui Rad et al. / Scientia Horticulturae 181 (2015) 108–112

Table 1 Table 2
Descriptive statistics on 10 agronomic traits for the native melon population. Statistical parameters for ANNs.

Trait N Mean Min Max Standard error Network structure 9-1-1 9-3-1 9-5-1 9-7-1 9-9-1
Error tolerance 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Number of days to 116 48.0976 33 58 0.59141
Number of times 300 300 300 300 300
flowering
Learning rate 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Number of days to fruit 116 54.0244 33 58 0.69711
Moment rate 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
formation
R2 0.34 0.48 0.87 0.69 0.73
Number of fruits per 116 2.3171 1 4 0.12316
MPE (%) 3.34 2.54 2.21 2.67 2.56
plant
MSD 1.98 1.86 1.66 1.91 1.95
Fruit weight 116 608.8537 319 980 24.70881
Fruit length 116 21.9024 15 38 0.78383 R2 : Coefficient of determination.
Fruit width 116 14.5366 5 21 0.43491 MPE: Mean prediction error.
Fruit cavity diameter 116 7.7561 1 15 0.76571 MSD: Mean square deviation.
Flesh diameter 116 2.0244 1.2 3.7 0.09733
Plant length 116 105.0244 72 119 1.49613
Number of days to 116 75.2439 71 80 0.32718 For the yield data presented in Table 1, the model with 9:5:1 net-
maturity work structure is concluded as the optimal. Table 2 presents the
Min: minimum; Max: maximum. parameters for the ANNs examined which include, the number of
nodes in each secret layer of the network structure, the extent of
error tolerance as expected from the test, number of occurrence of
error and MSD: mean square deviation was considered. These three
the minimum error, mean prediction error, coefficient of determi-
parameters are represented as below:
nation and the mean square error. For estimating the coefficient of

(Xobs − Xpredict ) 100 determination which is represented by R2 , the MPE or mean pre-
MPE (%) = × diction error and the MSD or mean square deviation of the reply
(xobs ) n
 2
the estimated values by the ANNs models were compared against
(Xobs − Xpredict ) the real data. As presented in Table 2, the best statistical parame-
MSD (%) =
n ters were achieved by the 9-5-1 network structure. This network
 sq(reg)  includes 9 input data in the first layer, 5 neurons in the secret or
R2 = 1 − hidden layer and only 1 output neuron which represents the fruit
sq(T )
weight. The independent variables present in the model explain
where,  = the sum of i − n, Xobs = fruit weight as noted in the 87% result for the fruit weight and also shows the minimum
the field, Xpredict = fruit weight as estimate by the network, error value. Alteration of the number of neurons of the hidden
R2 = coefficient of determination, sq(reg) = the sum of square regres- layer or reducing the value of R2 amplifies the error. The accu-
sion, SST = the total sum of square, SSR = the total sum of squared racy of the forecast is lessened and the error is increased with the
residuals. variation in the number of neurons present in the hidden layer.
Basically it is the hidden layer which makes the model capable of
2.5. Random forest (variable importance) producing high-level of statistical data. The relation between the
noted and the forecasted value has been presented in Fig. 1. The
Random forests is a very efficient algorithm, based on model picture shows that the curves generated by the Artificial Neural
aggregation ideas, for both classification and regression problems, Network model and the ones formed by the actual observed value
introduced by Breiman (2001). The quantification of the variable are of the same pattern and shape which confirms that the ANN
importance is a crucial issue not only for ranking the variables has modeled the data successfully by using a dependable structure
before a stepwise estimation model but also to interpret data which had 9 experimental nodes. The result makes it clear, that by
and understand underlying phenomenon in many applied prob- using this ANN model the farmers can put the data in a computer
lems. Random Forest package (Liaw and Wiener, 2002) within the and predict the cost-effectiveness of the yield in advance, which
R package was implemented. Variable importance measurement will make it possible for the cultivator to opt for financial helps
was carried out in the Random Forest R package. Random forest with full assurance of in time refund (Soares et al., 2013). In agri-
estimates covariate importance by permuting the values of each culture, maximizing the harvest while minimizing the expenses is
covariate in the out-of-bag (OOB) sample (thereby destroying the surely the prime goal; and by advance revealing and proper man-
information content of each covariate) and reclassifying OOB sam- agement of the issues related with the harvest of the crop, can
ples using the permuted variable. The change in OOB error is then improve the yield and the gain for the cultivator. Extreme atmo-
an indication of the importance of that covariate. Covariates with spheric conditions can have serious effect on the weather of the
a comparatively large increase in OOB error are more important area affecting the yield. The model can also be used to minimize
(Pierce et al., 2012). the amount of loss in case of unfavorable weather conditions. At
the same time, the same prediction ways can be applied to find
3. Results and discussion out the maximum crop yield capacity during favorable conditions
(Snehal and Sandeep, 2014). Maximum studies performed on mel-
With regard to the population the results of phenotypic statis- ons have stressed on classification and estimation of the genotypic
tics, including mean, minimum, maximum, and standard error of behaviors of different varieties including hybrids of melons by
mean are shown in Table 1. Fig. 1 explains the structure of the ANNs applying different phenotypic traits related to the documentation
formed after training with the back-propagation algorithm for fore- and assortment of superior plants (Chamnan and Kasem, 2006;
casting the fruit weight of melon. The study was conducted over Emeka et al., 2013; Snehal and Sandeep, 2014). With the help of
two flowering cycles of the plants; data collected from the first correlation, regression and path analysis studies the factors which
cycle were applied to form the model, whereas the second set of are directly related to the fruit weight of melon have been pointed
data were preserved for evaluating the forecasting accuracy of the out. However, as these studies cannot forecast the yield of melon, so
model. Each of the tasks was initiated with different weights till the simple relationship provided between a number of traits and
the lowest range of average error was reached. The model with the the fruit weight might or might not be really significant in prac-
minimum average standard error was nominated for the process. tical application. However, the ANNs offer a much advanced way
 M.R. Naroui Rad et al. / Scientia Horticulturae 181 (2015) 108–112 111

Train data: Fruit weight calculated by MLP

1200.00

1000.00

800.00

Weight(gr) 600.00 observed

predicted
400.00

200.00

0.00
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 Plant
Test data: Fruit weight calculated by MLP
1200
observed
1000 predicted
Weight(gr)

800

600

400

200

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Plant
Fig. 1. Graphical representation of the values recorded series (blue) and the predicted.by the neural network (red) for the weight of the fruit in melon. MLP: multilayer
perceptrons. (For interpretation of reference to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

than the traditional correlation methods, as it enables a cultivator to research paper suggests a process to forecast the fruit weight of
provide inputs in a computer or calculating device and evaluate the melon plants by applying the Artificial Neural Network models. A
expected fruit weight even before ripening of the fruit (Soares et al., great benefit of forecasting the total yield in advance is that, in this
2013). The information gathered by the previous researches can be way the cultivator can estimate the total yield at an early stage
used to regulate the factors which are crucial to melon production. of the cultivation rather than waiting for the fruits to grow and
By forecasting the yield from a melon cultivation, the cultivator ripe. The ANNs model applied in this case predicted the final fruit
can calculate the cost-effectiveness of growing the crop. This can weight of melon with high accuracy, and the network which came
inspire further studies on the topic to find out the factors which up with the most precised outcome had a 9-5-1 structure. The vari-
effects the final yield to the most. The time taken to produce a able importance measure of the RF model explain the effects of the
new cultivar, often work as a hurdle for crop improvement; so any traits on the estimation of fruit weight (Fig. 2). Regarding the total
process that can reduce the time taken, can be highly helpful. This weight of melon fruit, the importance of flesh diameter could be

Importance plot
1.2

1.0

0.8
Importance

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0
Fruit cavilty diameter
Flesh diameter

Number of days to flowering

Fruit length

Fruit width

Number of days to fruit formation

Plant length

Number of fruits per Plant

Number of days to maturity

Fig. 2. The variable importance obtained by RF. RF: random forest.

112 M.R. Naroui Rad et al. / Scientia Horticulturae 181 (2015) 108–112
related to the fact that final fruit weight is highly affected by this
trait in this study.
Acknowledgements
We would like to thank organization of Jahad-e-Agriculture for
its helpful collaboration and the authors express their gratitude to
the Agriculture and Natural Resources Research Center of sistan for
preparing the place and facility.
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