Minnesota Exports to Selected Major Markets: Implications of

Countermeasures to the U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs

Due to the uncertainty and complexity of the announced trade-restrictive countermeasures, the data
below are estimates of Minnesota exports that may be impacted by the countermeasures proposed by
Canada, Mexico, China and the European Union in response to the steel and aluminum tariffs imposed
by the United States. Due to data availability, Minnesota export values may be overestimated because
broader categories of goods for export data may be used than those specified in the countermeasures.1

Broad implications of these countermeasures include:

 Decreased competitiveness of certain segments of Minnesota exports.
 Employment declines related to lower levels of export activity and/or production.
 Increased costs for businesses and consumers.
 Uncertainty in international purchasing decisions.
 Shifting of suppliers and/or production.
 Uncertain or delayed investment decisions.

Summary
The total value of exports from Minnesota that may be subject to countermeasures from Canada, China,
Mexico and the European Union is estimated at $641 million (based on 2017 data) and represents 3.1
percent of Minnesota’s global exports.

Chart 1. Minnesota Exports Affected by Trade Countermeasures Imposed by Selected Markets

$300 $265
Exports, 2017 (Millions)

$200 $159 $150

$100 $67

$-
Canada China EU Mexico

1
Data source: Harmonized System Origin of Movement Export Data Series, Foreign Trade Division, Census Bureau, U.S. Department of
Commerce, distributed by IHS Markit (Global Trade Atlas). Prepared by Economic Analysis Unit, Policy Office, MN DEED (6/28/2018).
1
Chart 2, below, provides an overview of approximately the 10 largest products for each Canada, China,
Mexico and the European Union that may be affected by their respective announced countermeasures.
The following sections present export estimates for each of these selected geographic areas.

Chart 2. Major Minnesota Exports That May Be Affected by Announced Countermeasures

2
Canada

 Countermeasures: 10% or 25% surtax or similar trade-restrictive measures on selected U.S.

goods.
 Effective date of countermeasures: July 1, 2018. To remain in place until the U.S. eliminates
its trade-restrictive measures against Canada.
 Estimated total value of MN exports potentially subject to countermeasures: $265 million
(2017 data). Represents about 6% of Minnesota’s total exports to Canada.
 Main types of affected products: About half (53 percent) of the goods subject to
countermeasures consisted of various iron or steel products, various boat products,
uncoated paper, and bread and other baked products.

Group Exports (2017) Percent of MN Exports to Canada (2017)

Goods Subject to Countermeasures $265 million 6.2%
All Iron or Steel Products $42 million 1.0%
All Boat Products $41 million 1.0%
Uncoated Paper $29 million 0.7%
Bread, Pastry, Cakes Products $28 million 0.7%

Chart 3. Minnesota Exports to Canada Affected by Canada’s Countermeasures

3
China

 Countermeasures: 25% surtax or similar trade-restrictive measures on selected U.S. goods,

focusing on agricultural commodities and food products.
 Effective date of countermeasures: July 6, 2018. Additional tariffs may be imposed at a
later date, potentially including crude oil, coal, chemicals and medical devices.
 Estimated total value of MN exports potentially subject to countermeasures: $159 million
(2017 data). Represents almost 7% of Minnesota’s total exports to China.
 Main types of affected products: About 80 percent of the goods subject to
countermeasures consisted of swine by-products, whey (dairy) products and soybeans.

Group Exports (2017) Percent of MN Exports to China (2017)

Goods Subject to Countermeasures $159 million 6.6%
All Swine-Related Products $61 million 2.5%
Whey (Dairy) Products $39 million 1.6%
Soybeans $26 million 1.1%
Note: USDA estimates of agricultural commodity exports may differ from those produced by the U.S. Department of Commerce
due to differences in methodology.

Chart 4. Minnesota Exports to China Affected by China’s Countermeasures

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European Union (EU)

 Countermeasures: 10% to 50% surtax, or similar trade-restrictive measures on a range of

U.S. goods.
 Effective dates of countermeasures: June 22, 2018 for some products, with tariffs ranging
from 10% to 25%. More tariffs may be imposed on other goods effective June 1, 2021,
ranging from 10% to 50%, depending on the outcome of the WTO dispute.
 Estimated total value of MN exports potentially subject to countermeasures: $150 million
(2017 data). Represents 3.5% of Minnesota’s total exports to the EU.
 Main types of affected products: About 70 percent of the goods subject to
countermeasures consisted of motorcycles, kidney beans, and ceramic products.

Group Exports (2017) Percent of MN Exports to the EU (2017)

Goods Subject to Countermeasures $150 million 3.5%
Motorcycles $40 million 0.9%
Kidney, White Pea Beans $38 million 0.9%
Ceramic Products $28 million 0.7%

Chart 5. Minnesota Exports to the European Union Affected by EU’s Countermeasures

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Mexico

 Countermeasures: 5% to 25% tariffs, on selected U.S. goods, focusing on steel and

aluminum goods, agricultural commodities, and food products.
 Effective dates of countermeasures: June 5, 2018.
 Estimated total value of MN exports potentially subject to countermeasures: $67 million
(2017 data). Represents almost 3% of Minnesota’s total exports to Mexico.
 Main types of affected products: About 64 percent of the goods subject to
countermeasures involved a type of pork product. The main pork product was fresh or
chilled pork ($33 million). Other targeted U.S. agricultural and food products affecting
Minnesota exporters include potatoes, cheese, and various prepared foods.

Percent of MN Exports to
Group Value (2017) Mexico (2017)
Goods Subject to Countermeasures $67 million 2.7%
All Swine-Related Goods $43 million 1.7%

Chart 6. Minnesota Exports to Mexico Affected by Mexico’s Countermeasures