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Año Ventas DISPERSION

2006 178,554
2007 135,650 Ventas
2008 141,920 300,000
2009 173,500
2010 206,130 250,000

2011 198,125
200,000
2012 232,400
2013 221,823 150,000
2014 216,611
100,000
2015 260,126
2016 258,791.01 50,000
2017 270,118.80
2018 281,446.59 0
2004 2006 2008 2010 2
2019 292,774.38
2020 304,102.17
Con linea de tendencia

Ventas
300,000

250,000 232,
f(x) = 11327.787878787x - 22578033.6303013
206,130
198,125
200,000 178,554 173,500

150,000 135,650 141,920

100,000

50,000

0
2004 2006 2008 2010 20

Con proyeccion

Ventas
350,000

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000
250,000

200,000

150,000
0
100,000

50,000

0
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20
Ventas

08 2010 2012 2014 2016

Ventas

260,126
232,400
78787x - 22578033.6303013 221,823 216,611
206,130
198,125
173,500

20

8 2010 2012 2014 2016

Ventas
10 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Población Histórica 56500 Población actual 57630
Demanda Potencial Varones 25934
Mayor de 20 años 17289

Demanda potencial 57630*0.45*0.3*0.4 31120


Demanda efectiva 31120.20*0.35 10892
Demanda insatisfecha 10892.047-2900 7992
500 KG = 1 MES
X 12 MESES = 6000

KG KG MATERIA P.
1 5
6000 X EL 10% DE 30, 000 3000

X 30,000

SE TIENE QU 33000 KG
Período 1 2 3 4 5
Ventas 200 220 220 240 240
Precio Unitario 160.00 160.00 160.00 160.00 160.00
Ventas Totales 32,000.00 35,200.00 35,200.00 38,400.00 38,400.00

INGRESOS
Ventas Contado 22,400.00 24,640.00 24,640.00 26,880.00 26,880.00
Ventas Crédito 9,600.00 10,560.00 10,560.00 11,520.00 11,520.00
Total Ingresos 22,400.00 34,240.00 35,200.00 37,440.00 38,400.00

EGRESOS
Caja Mínima 500.00
Costo Producción 14,000.00 15,400.00 15,400.00 16,800.00 16,800.00
GA + GV 10,000.00 10,000.00 10,000.00 10,000.00 10,000.00
Comisión 1,600.00 1,760.00 1,760.00 1,920.00 1,920.00
Total Egresos 26,100.00 27,160.00 27,160.00 28,720.00 28,720.00

Déficit Acumulado -3,700.00 7,080.00 8,040.00 8,720.00 9,680.00


Contado 3500
Casa Comercial
Cuotas Monto CuotaTotal Interés
24 196.00 4,704.00 1,204.00

Credito M i Tiempo
M= 3,500.00 42% 1 años
M= 4970
Interés 1,470.00

Es recomendable tomar la primera opción, ya que los intereses son más bajos
Período 1 2 3 4 5
Demanda (uu) 10000 10000 12000 12000 12000

P.V. U. 9.00 Costos Unitarios


Materia Prima 1.20
Mano de obra 0.60
Total 1.80

Costos Fijos 45,000.00


Depreciación

IR 30%
Costo Oport 10%

ESTADO DE RESULTADOS
Período 1 2 3 4 5
Ingresos 90,000.00 90,000.00 108,000.00 108,000.00 108,000.00

Egresos
C.V. Total 18,000.00 18,000.00 21,600.00 21,600.00 21,600.00
Costo Fijo 45,000.00 45,000.00 45,000.00 45,000.00 45,000.00
Depreciación 20,000.00 20,000.00 20,000.00 20,000.00 20,000.00
Total Egresos 83,000.00 83,000.00 86,600.00 86,600.00 86,600.00

Utilidad Antes I 7,000.00 7,000.00 21,400.00 21,400.00 21,400.00

Impto a la Renta 2100 2100 6420 6420 6420

Utilidad Neta 4,900.00 4,900.00 14,980.00 14,980.00 14,980.00

FLUJO DE CAJA
0 1 2 3 4 5
INGRESOS
VENTAS 90,000.00 90,000.00 108,000.00 108,000.00 108,000.00
VRCT 20,000.00
EGRESOS
INVERSION 120,000.00
CV TOTAL 18,000.00 18,000.00 21,600.00 21,600.00 21,600.00
Costo Fijo 45,000.00 45,000.00 45,000.00 45,000.00 45,000.00
Impuesto 2,100.00 2,100.00 6,420.00 6,420.00 6,420.00
Flujo de Caja Ne -120,000.00 24,900.00 24,900.00 34,980.00 34,980.00 54,980.00

VAN 24,900.00 24,900.00 34,980.00 34,980.00 54,980.00


1.1 1.21 1.331 1.4641 1.61051
VAN 22636.36364 20578.5124 26280.99173554 23891.8107 34138.2543

VAN 7,525.93

TIR 12% VAN


20,000.00
ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD

PRECIO VAN 15,000.00

8.70 -1,297.00
8.74 - 10,000.00
9.00 7,525.93

VAN
9.30 16,349.80 5,000.00

-
8.60 8.70 8.80 8.90 9.00 9.10 9.20 9.30

(5,000.00)
PRECIO
-120000
24,900.00
24,900.00
34,980.00
34,980.00
54,980.00
VAN

90 9.00 9.10 9.20 9.30 9.40

PRECIO