Assignment-1

FARHANA.K
EP/330
3rd Semester, 2nd Year
Maters in Environmental
TSUNAMI RISK ASSESSMENT Planning, SPA Delhi
FOR THE PORT CITY OF GALLE
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Table of Contents
1. Tsunami .............................................................................................................................. 2
2. Subduction zone earthquake sources .................................................................................. 2
2.1 City of Galle, Srilanka .................................................................................................... 3
2.2 Approach to tsunami hazard analysis ............................................................................. 4
2.3 Scenario-based tsunami hazard analysis (stha) ................................................................ 4
2.3.1 Hazard analysis for risk assessment .......................................................................... 6
3. Vulnerability assessment .................................................................................................... 6
4. Risk assessment .................................................................................................................. 7
5. Mitigation Measures ........................................................................................................... 7
5.1 Measures that mitigate impact of Tsunami ...................................................................... 7
5.2 Measures that mitigate exposure and vulnerability to the tsunami hazard ...................... 8
5.3 Measures that promote successful evacuation from tsunami hazard ............................... 8
6. Conclusion .......................................................................................................................... 8
7. Reference ............................................................................................................................ 8

Figures and Tables

Figure 1 Major plates and subduction zones that are potential sources of IO tsunamis. ........... 3
Figure 2 Galle Bay and headland: Headland ............................................................................. 3
Figure 3 Inundation contours ..................................................................................................... 4
Figure 4 Inundation depths and wave directions ....................................................................... 4
Figure 5 Deepwater propagation and inundation modelling for Galle ...................................... 5
Figure 6 Distribution of computed maximum tsunami heights over the Indian Ocean ............. 5
Figure 7 Snapshots of tsunami propagation in four scenarios ................................................... 5
Figure 8 Hazard map .................................................................................................................. 6
Figure 9 Vulnerability map ........................................................................................................ 6
Figure 10 Risk map .................................................................................................................... 7
Figure 11 Hybrid approach using both artificial and natural methods ...................................... 7

Table 1 Source details and the maximum and minimum wave amplitudes from the
propagation modeling………...5

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TSUNAMI RISK ASSESSMENT FOR THE PORT CITY OF GALLE

1. Tsunami
A tsunami is a series of waves with a long wavelength and period (time between crests). Time
between crests of the wave can vary from a few minutes to over an hour. Tsunamis are often
incorrectly called tidal waves; they have no relation to the daily ocean tides. Tsunami (soo-
NAH-mee) is a Japanese word meaning harbour wave. Tsunamis can occur at any time of day
or night. Tsunamis are generated by any large, impulsive displacement of the sea bed level.
Earthquakes generate tsunamis by vertical movement of the sea floor. If the sea floor movement
is horizontal, a tsunami is not generated. Earthquakes of M > 6.5 are critical for tsunami
generation. Tsunamis are also triggered by landslides into or under the water surface, and can
be generated by volcanic activity and meteorite impacts.

On the average, there are two tsunamis per year in the Pacific Ocean somewhere, which cause
damage near the source. Approximately every 15 years a destructive tsunami occurs in Pacific.
The destructive tsunami on Dec 26th, 2004 on the Indian Coast in terms of its impact seems to
have occurred for the first time in the history.

2. Subduction zone earthquake sources

There are two major active subduction zones with tsunamigenic seismic potential in the Indian
Ocean Basin, namely, the Bengal-Sumatra-Sunda subduction zone stretching south from
Bangladesh and Myanmar to Java (Segment AE), and the Makran subduction zone (Segment
FG) off the coastline of Pakistan and Iran in the Arabian Sea. The Bengal-Sumatra-Sunda
subduction zone may be further divided into four zones for the purpose of assessing the
tsunamigenic earthquake hazard: (a) Andaman-Myanmar (Arakan) (Segment AB); (b)
Northern Sumatra-Andaman (Segment BC); (c) Southern Sumatra (Segment CD); and (d) Java
(Segment DE)The above seismic zones present local, regional or distant tsunamigenic sources
for different countries in the Indian Ocean.

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Figure 1 Major plates and subduction zones that are potential sources of Indian Ocean tsunamis. Major
accumulations of seabed sediments shown in pale blue to orange. Source: modified from Burbidge et
al., 2009. The Sunda Arc is referred to as the Bengal-Sumatra-Sunda subduction zone in this account.

2.1 City of Galle, Srilanka

Many coastal cities of Sri Lanka, particularly in the east and the south of the island, were
severely affected by the Indian Ocean tsunami, due to their exposure to the hazard. One of the
principal coastal cities devastated was the historic Port City of Galle located in the southern
province of Sri Lanka. In the context of tsunami hazard, the location of Galle is heavily
exposed. It lies beside a wide bay and a natural headland on which is located the historic Galle
Fort with very reflective vertical non-porous walls on all sides. Furthermore, there is the Dutch
Canal west of the headland, conveying water through the city centre. The waves in the vicinity
of Galle, which were increasing in height due to reduced water depths, were further subjected
to a series of nearshore processes which increased wave heights even further. The canal was a
facilitator in conveying the massive wave and associated flow towards the city centre.

Figure 2 Galle Bay and headland: Headland – concentration of energy and spreading around the
headland

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2.2 Approach to tsunami hazard analysis

Tsunami hazard analysis focuses on three areas: the tsunami hazard sources, exposure and the
potential impact on land. Tools and methods available to study the hazard include field
investigations, image analysis and mathematical modelling. The latter includes both
deterministic and probabilistic tsunami hazard modelling.With respect to tsunami hazard
sources, attention is focused on previous events (their location, magnitude and sequence),
seismic gaps and the identification of ‘credible scenarios’.
When examining the exposure at a given location, due attention must be focused on submarine
geological features, the regional location that will identify the influence of key wave
transformation processes, and the location with respect to continental shelf and shoreline
geometry. Depending on these aspects, the amplitude of the tsunami wave may be enhanced,
as was observed in the City of Galle.
The assessment inundation was carried out in an organized manner by dividing the area under
study into 250m x 250m grids. At least one location was selected for each grid and a total of
138 points were selected for the study. The following were analysed:
 The inundation profile comprising depth, length, run-up and spatial distribution.
 Inundation contours with wave direction and information that could help to estimate
the flow speed.
 Distance from the sea along the tsunami flow path.
 Relevant information for risk assessment.

Figure 3 Inundation contours

Figure 4 Inundation depths and wave directions

2.3 Scenario-based tsunami hazard analysis (stha)

STHA, sometimes called deterministic tsunami hazard analysis, attempts to describe the effects
that a particular tsunami scenario, or suite of tsunami scenarios, will have on a coast of interest.
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These scenarios are chosen to include the worst credible and/or the most likely tsunami events,
according to some presumed geological framework.
Broad-scale deepwater propagation modelling was carried out for a number of source scenarios
selected from the Sunda/Java Trench. The results of four selected scenarios are presented here.
A fault length of 500 km, a width of 150 km, a dip angle of 8°, a slip angle of 110° and a
displacement of 40 m was used for the study.

Table 1Source details and the maximum and minimum wave amplitudes from the propagation modeling

1 2 3 4

Figure 7 Snapshots of tsunami propagation in four scenarios 180 minutes after the earthquake

Figure 5 Deepwater propagation and inundation modelling for Galle

Figure 6 Distribution of computed maximum tsunami heights over the
Indian Ocean

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2.3.1 Hazard analysis for risk assessment
Hazard analysis for risk assessment can be undertaken either via a multi-scenario-based or an
event-based approach. In developing hazard maps for risk assessment, it is necessary to develop
hazard levels for which many approaches are available. In a multi-scenario-based approach,
the superimposition of the impact of scenarios will clearly indicate areas which have a greater
likelihood of being affected. The probability of inundation and its magnitude can be assessed
by several methods. In an event-based approach, attention is focused on individual events, for
example, on a worst-case event with specific frequencies of occurrences and impacts.
For the City of Galle, it was decided to develop an initial risk assessment based on the IOT,
which represents the worst-case hazard scenario.
Hazard levels were developed based on inundation and flow speeds. The four hazard levels
were classified as given below.
• High – Inundation level above 0.5m with high flow/current speeds (>1.5 m/sec)
• Medium – Inundation level between 1m and 2m with low flow speeds
• Low – Inundation level less than 1m and low flow speeds
• Very low (zero) – Very small or no inundation impacting humans

Figure 8 Hazard map

3. Vulnerability assessment
The critical parameters applicable to the City of Galle were:population and its distribution,
buildings, infrastructure and their status, exposure to the hazard, distance from the sea,
elevation, capacity to evacuate (within the broader framework of awareness, preparedness,
early warning, response and safe evacuation), impact on livelihoods.

Figure 9 Vulnerability map

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4. Risk assessment
The risk map can be prepared by superimposing the hazard and vulnerability maps. In doing
so, the method adopted must be clearly identified so as to recognize potential limitations in
applications. In this study, the hazard and vulnerability maps, each comprising four levels of
classification – high, medium, low and very low (zero) – have been prepared. For
superimposing them, it is necessary to establish the criteria for risk levels. A high level of
hazard superimposed on high, medium or low levels of vulnerability (or vice versa) is classified
as a high level of risk. A medium level of hazard with a medium level of vulnerability is also
rated as a high level of risk. A medium level of hazard with a low level of vulnerability is rated
as a medium level of risk or vice versa. Finally a low level of hazard with low-level
vulnerability is rated as a low level of risk. If either the hazard or vulnerability is very low
(zero), then risk is considered to be zero.
The IOT certainly represents a worst-case scenario but other scenarios can be used to identify
the potential impacts from events with a higher possibility of occurrence.

Figure 10 Risk map

5. Mitigation Measures
5.1 Measures that mitigate impact of Tsunami
1. The implementation of artificial measures for protection, including tsunami breakwaters,
dikes and revetments. A protection wall (tsunami dyke) of modest proportions along the
coastline could supplement the tsunami breakwater.
2. The effective use of natural coastal ecosystems including coral reefs, sand dunes and coastal
vegetation (mangrove forests)
3. Hybrid systems of artificial and/or natural systems

Figure 11 Hybrid approach using both artificial and natural methods

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5.2 Measures that mitigate exposure and vulnerability to the tsunami hazard
1. Land-use planning
2. Regulatory interventions such as setback of defence lines
3. Hazard-resilient buildings and infrastructure
5.3 Measures that promote successful evacuation from tsunami hazard
1. Early warning systems (local and regional)
2. Public warning systems
3. Evacuation routes and structures
4. Community education, including community maps and other measures for community
preparedness.

6. Conclusion
Risk knowledge is a critical component of coastal community resilience and represents the
awareness of the community regarding potential hazards, vulnerability and the extent to which
the community is prone to hazard impacts. Risk knowledge therefore plays a vital role in
building a hazard-resilient community. It requires a full understanding of hazards both episodic
and chronic, the frequency of occurrence, the time scale over which they occur, and the
geographic extent of impact. The community should be aware of the impacts on human life,
ecosystems, agriculture and infrastructure.

7. Reference
 UNESCO, ‘Tsunami risk assessment and mitigation in the Indian Ocean; Knowing your
tsunami risk – and what do about it’, IOC Manuals and Guides No 52, UNESCO: Paris,
2009.
 UNDP, ‘risk assessment and management For tsunami hazard’, IOTWS Working
Group on Risk Assessment under the UNESCO/IOC framework, Thailand,2011
Case Study of the Port City of Galle’