Forecasting

Three Period Moving Average

Data Error Analysis 180

Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute 160
January 100 - - -
February 137 - - - 140
March 122 - - - 120
April 105 119.67 -14.67 14.67
100
May 150 121.33 28.67 28.67
June 136 125.67 10.33 10.33 80
July 93 130.33 -37.33 37.33
60
August 122 126.33 -4.33 4.33
September 124 117.00 7.00 7.00 40
October 166 113.00 53.00 53.00 20
November 145 137.33 7.67 7.67
December 152 145.00 7.00 7.00 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Total 57.33 170.00
Dema nd Li near (Demand
Average 6.37 18.89
 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
ma nd Li near (Demand) Foreca st
 Forecasting
Three Period Weighted Moving Average

Data Error Analysis 180

Period Demand Weights Forecast Error Absolute 160
January 100 1 - - -
February 137 2 - - - 140
March 122 3 - - - 120
April 105 123.3 -18.3 18.3
100
May 150 116.0 34.0 34.0
June 136 130.3 5.7 5.7 80
July 93 135.5 -42.5 42.5
60
August 122 116.8 5.2 5.2
September 124 114.7 9.3 9.3 40
October 166 118.2 47.8 47.8
20
November 145 144.7 0.3 0.3
December 152 148.5 3.5 3.5 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Total 45.0 166.7
Dema nd Li near (Dema
Sum of Weights 6 Average 5.0 18.5
Average

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Dema nd Li near (Demand) Foreca st
 Forecasting
Exponential Smoothing

Data Error Analysis 180

Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute 160
January 100 13.00 - -
February 137 69.55 67.45 67.45 140
March 122 113.39 8.61 8.61 120
April 105 118.99 -13.99 13.99
100
May 150 109.90 40.10 40.10
June 136 135.96 0.04 0.04 80
July 93 135.99 -42.99 42.99
60
August 122 108.05 13.95 13.95
September 124 117.12 6.88 6.88 40
October 166 121.59 44.41 44.41
20
November 145 150.46 -5.46 5.46
December 152 146.91 5.09 5.09 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Total 124.11 248.97
Dema nd Li near (Demand)
Average 11.28 22.63

Alpha 0.65
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
ma nd Li near (Demand) Foreca st