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Tourism: An Economic and Social Phenomenon

Over the decades, tourism has experienced continued growth and extending modification to become one of
the fastest growing economic sectors in the world. Modern tourism is closely linked to development and
encompasses a growing number of new destinations. These dynamics have turned tourism into a key driver
for socio-economic progress.

Today, the business volume of tourism equals or even surpasses that of oil exports, food products, or
automobiles. Tourism has become one (1) of the major players in international commerce and at the same
time represents one (1) of the main income sources for many developing countries. This growth goes hand in
hand with an increasing diversification and competition among destinations.

This global spread of tourism in industrialized and developed states has produced economic and employment
benefits in many related sectors - from construction to agriculture or telecommunications.

Lifted from: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). Why tourism? Retrieved from http://www2.unwto.org/content/why-tourism on
10 February 2016

Positive Projections for Tourism

Long-term Outlook

Image Source: UNWTO Tourism Highlights, 2015 Edition

 International tourist arrivals worldwide are expected to increase by 3.3% a year between 2010 and
2030 to reach 1.8 billion by 2030, according to UNWTO’s long term forecast Tourism Towards 2030.

 Between 2010 and 2030, arrivals in emerging destinations of Asia, Latin America, Central and Eastern
Europe, Eastern Mediterranean Europe, the Middle East, and Africa are expected to increase at twice
the rate (+4.4% a year) of those in advanced economies (+2.2% a year).

 The market share of emerging economies increased from 30% in 1980 to 45% in 2014, and is expected
to reach 57% by 2030, equivalent to over 1 billion international tourist arrivals.

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 The strongest growth by region will be seen in Asia and the Pacific, where arrivals are forecasted to
increase by 331 million to reach 535 million in 2030 (+4.9% per year). The Middle East and Africa are
also expected to more than double their number of arrivals in this period, from 61 million to 149
million and from 50 million to 134 million, respectively. Europe (from 475 million to 744 million) and
the Americas (from 150 million to 248 million) will grow comparatively more slowly.
Lifted from: UNWTO Tourism Highlights 2015 Edition [PDF file]. Retrieved from http://www.e-
unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284416899 on 10 February 2016

Recovery from Crises

How do crises impact tourism?

According to initial research by the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), the impact of crises on tourism
and the length of time needed to return to previous levels differ widely depending on the type of crises and
diverse factors. Based on the research, crises are divided into four (4) categories: disease; environmental
disaster (natural catastrophes); political turmoil (conflicts); and terrorism. Factors affecting the scale of their
impact on tourism include whether tourists are directly targeted or affected, which locations are involved,
the extent of infrastructure damage, the time of year, as well as the scale and tone of media coverage.

The initial results of WTTC research are as follows:

 According to Evelyne Freiermuth, WTTC’s Policy and Research Manager, political turmoil tends to have
the greatest impact on tourism as it affects a destination’s overall safety and security over a long
period. She also commented that “Political turmoil has a much more gradual impact but it often lasts
for a long time and is difficult to judge when it is over”.
 Terrorism does not have the biggest impact, based on WTTC’s research into various incidents over the
past decade. According to Freiermuth, “It is not the size of the attack that necessarily has the biggest
impact but other factors.”
Example: The Madrid train attack in 2004 impacted less on tourism to Spain than what the
bombings with a similar death toll in Indonesia caused in the Asian destination.
 Major outbreaks of disease, such as SARS in Asia, tend to have a very rapid short-term impact on
tourism but this stabilizes and the affected destination recovers fairly quickly.
Environmental disasters often have less impact on tourism although the effects can last longer.

How should authorities respond?

Although different crises require different responses, governments and authorities should ensure they have
clear and effective communications, as stated by WTTC Policy Research Manager. For example, a five-point
crisis communications plan should cover quick responses, clear information, consistency, openness and
accessibility, and sympathy for victims. She also pointed out that, once the destination start to focus on
tourism recovery, the most effective messages are often testimonials from celebrities and confirmation that
the local community wants visitors back again.
Participants in the forum pointed out that the impact of a crisis also depends on whether tourists believe they
are directly at risk and whether they have a choice of alternative destinations or not. Additionally, they
recommended that authorities should clearly communicate factors that tourists might not be aware of, such
as distances between an affected area and the main tourist destinations.
Lifted and modified from: IPK International. (2015). ITB World Travel Trends Report [PDF file]. Berlin: Messe Berlin GmBH. Retrieved from:
http://www.itb-berlin.de/en/ on 4 February 2016

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