Lotus is something of a curiosity.

Like Chrysler, many companies have owned it, only

to eventually sell to another firm, usually having sustained substantial losses during
the period of control. Will things be different under Geely?

The following analysis of where the company is at and the cars it is

said to be planning is the penultimate feature in the Zhejiang Geely
Holding Group series. Previous reports have looked at Geely,
Geely Emgrand, Terrafugia, Zhi Dou, LEVC, Lynk &
Co, Polestar and Volvo Cars. After Lotus, the series will conclude
with an examination of Proton.

Heritage - and the potential future cars

This year marks the 70th anniversary of Colin Chapman building

his first competition car in a small London garage. Four years later,
in 1952, he formed Lotus. The sports car maker's latest owner is
Geely Holding (ZGH), the Chinese firm having closed a deal to buy
51 per cent of the tiny company in September 2017. The remainder
is owned by Etika, a Malaysian automotive group.

Last year, some 1,600 Lotus cars were sold, an increase of 10%
versus 2016. The company also says it "showed a profit for the first
time in history". That came after a programme of cost cuts and the
addition of various high-priced special edition models. The hardest
work remains to be done, however; that being the successful
introduction of desperately needed new vehicles.

Jean-Marc Gales, the now former CEO, left that position in June,
but has a new title: chief strategic advisor to Lotus chairman Daniel
Donghui Li. So having brought in its own management team, Geely
must surely see that it needs to communicate what it intends to do
with the company.

All manner of strategic plans were announced by former owners,

including DRB HiCom, and not much came of any of these: the last
new Lotus to be launched was the Evora and that was nine years
ago.

Will Geely retain the majority of production at Lotus' Hethel base in

Norfolk or will it instead shift build or assembly to China, a market
which in theory could become a major one for the marque? And
what of all the noises about Lotus SUVs? There have been
unconfirmed claims that Volvo and Geely engineers have been
tasked with creating two models which would in theory be aimed at
the Porsche Macan and Cayenne. That idea could make some
short-term sense as a way of establishing the brand in the minds of
Chinese customers.

Lotus' past remains its present reality. A new era which defines -
clearly - what Geely intends it to become could be dawning but that
has been said multiple times before, under previous owners.
Referencing long-ago times of James Bond cars, Formula 1, plus
lightweight sports cars from the 1950s and 1960s is all well and
good and a fantastic heritage of which it should be proud. Now
though, Lotus must build strong, new foundations and tell the world
what it intends to do next.

Elise

Type 111 is the original model code for the Elise. This is one of the
oldest cars available from any OEM, production having
commenced in 1996. Lotus' many owners and leaders are some of
the reasons why the little sports car's replacement has been
variously delayed, shelved, axed, revived and/or restarted over the
last 15 or more years.

The Elise has had several engines, a Toyota powerplant having

replaced the Rover-sourced unit in 2004. The last facelift took
place more than eight years ago and at the same time (April 2010),
a new 1.6-litre Toyota-sourced engine became standard for the
base variant.

Lotus debuted a concept version of the proposed replacement

model at the Paris motor show in September 2010. This was
claimed to be powered by a 320hp turbocharged 2.0-litre (Toyota)
engine. Originally due in 2014, it was reportedly to be the
company's cheapest future UK sportscar, priced at about
GBP35,000 in 2010 terms. Following a change in management, all
previously stated future model plans were put on hold.

The April 2014 appointment of Jean-Marc Gales as CEO meant

the creation of a new product plan. For the first three years, the
current range was maintained and tweaked. There were some
updates to the model line-up from November 2015 production and
the cars lost 10kg.
The change of ownership in 2017 saw Lotus' future model plans
delayed yet again. The Elise is expected to carry on more or less
unchanged for another two years, with several more special
editions due to be created in an attempt to give the car some
chance of remaining news-worthy and therefore sales-worthy.

If Geely is intending to stick to Gales' plan, a successor should

appear in 2020. The new model will be slightly larger and annual
production of several thousand cars is the target. The second
generation Elise would also be the launch vehicle for a next
generation Lotus platform. The life cycle will probably be somewhat
shorter than the current car's. Between six and eight years seems
a fair bet.

Exige

The current-shape Exige, which is a variant of the Elise, debuted at

the Geneva show in March 2004 and went on sale a few weeks
later. It was originally powered by a 189bhp 1.8-litre Toyota engine.

A new Exige S was relaunched at Lotus' clothing shop in London in

July 2012. This car was a facelifted and re-engineered version of
the old one. It was originally revealed at the Frankfurt motor show
in September 2011. Unlike the old Exige S, this one was powered
by a supercharged 3.5-litre V6.

An Exige S roadster was announced in May 2013. Its global debut

was at the Goodwood Festival of Speed, two months later. In
October 2014, Lotus announced the availability of a six-speed
automatic gearbox as a new option.

The Exige Sport 350 was announced in December 2015 as the

replacement for the Exige S. Compared to the S, the Sport 350
was 51kg lighter, weighing a claimed 1,125kg. The saving came
about thanks to the introduction of a louvred tailgate panel, a lighter
battery, lightweight engine mounts, a lightweight centre console
featuring an exposed gearshift mechanism, lighter HVAC pipework
and what Lotus termed "the optimised use of sound insulation".
The car was powered by a 345hp supercharged 3.5-litre V6. The
Sport 350 went on sale across Europe in February 2016.

A replacement for the 350 was announced in November 2016.

This, the Exige Sport 380, is powered by a 375hp version of the
supercharged V6. Priced in its home market from an astonishing
GBP67,500, this is also GBP11,000 more than the 350.

The Exige replacement might still be one of the vehicles which

Lotus' former parent firm said it hoped to build in China, as well as
in England. The company made the announcement on the eve of
April 2015's Shanghai motor show, stating that it wished to partner
with China's Goldstar Heavy Industrial Company. This would be for
the production of both cars and engines. The position of Geely on
this topic is not yet known.

The new car is due to be released six to 12 months after the arrival
of the Elise, with which it will share a fresh platform, so that means
2021.

Evora

This mid-engined sports car had its world premiere at the London
motor show in July 2008. Its engine is a Toyota 3.5-litre V6.
Production started in May 2009.

A facelifted and renamed Evora, the 400, was revealed at the 2015
Geneva motor show. At the time, this was Lotus' fastest and most
powerful car yet, with its engine a 400hp supercharged Toyota-
sourced V6.

The 400 entered production for European markets in July 2015,

with the first deliveries following one month later. North American
markets received the Evora 400 as a 2016 model year car from
December 2015.

An Evora 400 roadster was claimed to be under development. It

would be on sale in the US from mid-2016, Lotus announced in
July 2015. The car was to have a two-piece carbonfibre roof which
would have to be removed manually and then stowed behind the
front seats. In November 2016, Lotus told the media that this car
had been delayed until late 2017. The roadster has still not
appeared.

A lighter, faster version of the Evora 400 was also under

development, the company's then CEO Jean-Marc Gales told the
media in July 2015. This car, the Evora Sport 410, was announced
in February 2016 and had its public debut at the following month's
Geneva motor show. Compared to the 400, it lost 70kg. Lotus said
it would build 150 units of this car per annum.

In July 2017, Lotus announced an edition of 60 cars called Evora

GT430. The name was the output in horsepower of the
supercharged and charge cooled Toyota V6 engine. Weight was
claimed to be 1,258kg and top speed said to be 190mph
(305km/h).

Lotus told the media about the (410hp) Evora GT410 Sport in
January, which succeeded the Sport 410 and is priced from
GBP85,900. This is said to have the same top speed as the Evora
GT430.

Later in 2018, the company will begin selling the Evora in China.

Given its age, this model obviously needs to be replaced fairly

soon but that's probably not going to happen: successors for other,
older cars are the priority. Instead, there will probably be a major
update for the Evora in 2020 and a replacement in 2023 or 2024.

SUVs

A rebodying of the Lynk 01 and Volvo XC40 was said to be

planned as a way of getting a Lotus SUV onto the Chinese market
as soon as possible. Patent drawings of such a model were
published on the internet in October 2017. These plans might have
changed as Jean-Marc Gales stated in March (three months before
he left his role as CEO) that an SUV was some four years away.
Gales also said that there could be two SUVs - one the size of the
Porsche Macan and the other to be as long as the Cayenne.

The SUVs would logically be based on Volvo and Geely

architectures, so CMA and SPA. Production would most likely be in
China. More news on the possibility of one or more of these
theoretical models reaching production is awaited.

Summary

Lotus remains something of a curiosity. Like Chrysler or Aston

Martin, many companies have owned this maker of famously
lightweight sports cars, only to eventually sell it on, usually having
sustained substantial losses during the period of control. Will things
be different under Geely?

In a few weeks' time, 12 months will have passed since the

Chinese firm took control of Group Lotus. Still no firm dates for the
release of fresh models have been announced. Nor has a strategic
plan, if there is one, been communicated.

Next year isn't too far off and in 2019, Lotus might become
infamous as the car maker which had gone a decade without
launching any new cars. At some point, the special editions which
have been an emergency measure aimed at keeping cash flowing
and disguising the age of the underlying models, may not be
enough to do that.

Geely would do well to learn from the mistakes of others: relatively

cheap lightweight sports cars might thrill the enthusiast magazines
but clearly, they are a recipe for losing money.

Perhaps the future has been hinted at by the actions taken under
Jean-Marc Gales' recent period of management: prices have gone
up - steeply in fact - and that could indicate how Group Lotus sees
where it needs to get to. That would be as a maker of high-priced
sports cars which use well-known names from the past such as
Esprit or Elan, every one based on a single, advanced architecture.
In effect, a would-be competitor for McLaren, only with one major
difference - also having a manufacturing base in China where
possibly, sports-SUVs are made which could generate some
serious cash.

September, which marks the first anniversary of Geely ownership,

the start of a new model year in North America and the build up
to the largest motor show in Lotus' home region of Europe, would
be a good time for Group Lotus or its majority owner to tell us what
the future holds. Let's wait and see what, if anything is announced.

Future product program intelligence

Future model plan reports for other manufacturers can be viewed

in the OEM product strategy summaries section of just-auto.com.
Proton will be the next and final brand in the Geely series to have
its passenger vehicle divisions' models plans explored.
More detail on the past, current and forthcoming models for every
division of Geely Holding can be found in PLDB, the future vehicles
database which is part of QUBE.