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Lecture-3

Rules of Probability

( )

( )

Addition Rule

For any two events A & B, the general addition rule of probability is,

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

( ) ( ) ( )

For any three events A, B & C, the general addition rule of probability is,

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

Example-1: In a process that manufactures aluminum cans, the probability that a can has a flaw on its

side is 0.02, the probability that a can has a flaw on the top is 0.03, and the probability that a can has a

flaw on both the side and the top is 0.01. What is the probability that a randomly chosen can has a flaw?

P(S)= 0.02, P(T)= 0.03, P (S and T) = ( ) = 0.01

Now, P (F) = ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

Example-2: The distribution of blood types in USA is roughly 41% type A, 9% type B, 4% type AB and

46% type O. An individual is bought into an emergency room and need to have blood. What is the

probability that the type will be A, B or AB?

Solution: Here, the probability of different types of blood groups are mutually exclusive because

one cannot have two different types of blood group at the same time. Therefore,

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

~1~

Example-3: The following table is the sample space containing 1000 aluminum rods:

Length Diameter Total

Too Thin (D) OK (E) Too Thick (F)

Too Short (A) 10 3 5 18

OK (B) 38 900 4 942

Too Long (C) 2 25 13 40

Total 50 928 22 1000

What is the probability that a randomly selected rod will have

(a) Diameter OK or length OK?

(b) Length too long or diameter too thin?

(c) Too thin or too thick diameter?

Solution:

(a) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 0.97

(b) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

Complementation Rule

( ) ( )

Example-4: Referring to Example-1, what is the probability that it has no flaw? What is the probability

that a can has a flaw on the top but not on the side?

P (a can has a flaw on top but not on side) = ( ) ( ) ( )

Conditional Rule

For any two events A & B, where ( ) , the conditional probability of B given A, denoted by ( ) is

defined as,

( )

( )

( )

If the event A has no effect on the probability assigned to the event B, then the formula turns into,

( ) ( )

~2~

Example-5: Referring to Example -1, what is the probability that a can will have a flaw on the side, given

that it has a flaw on top? What is the probability that a can will have a flaw on the top, given that it has a

flaw on the side? Are they equal?

( )

( )

( )

( )

( )

( )

Example-6: Referring to Example-3, compute the conditional probability P (diameter OK | length too

long). Is this the same as the unconditional probability P (diameter OK)?

Solution: The conditional probability P (diameter OK | length too long) is computed under the

assumption that the rod is too long. Of the 40 outcomes, 25 meet the diameter specification.

Therefore,

P (diameter OK | length too long) =

( ) ⁄

( )

( ) ⁄

The unconditional probability P (diameter OK) is computed on the basis of all 1000 outcomes in

the sample space and is equal to 928/1000 = 0.928. In this case, the conditional probability differs

from the unconditional probability.

Multiplication Rule

For any two events A & B, the multiplication rule of probability is,

( ) ( ) ( )

Or,

( ) ( ) ( )

( ) ( ) ( )

~3~

Example-7: Referring to Example-3, find the probability for the diameter OK and the length too long

using the table and also using the Multiplication rule.

Solution: From the table, we see the number of sample that satisfies both for the diameter OK and

the length too long is 25. So,

( )

Using the Multiplication rule,

( ) ( ) ( )

=

So, both probabilities are equal.

Independence Rule

Two events are independent if any one of the following equivalent statements is true:

i) ( ) ( )

ii) ( ) ( )

iii) ( ) ( ) ( )

Example-8: If an aluminum rod is sampled from the sample space, find P(too long) and P(too long | too

thin). Are these probabilities different?

Solution: ( )

( ) ⁄

( )

( ) ⁄

The conditional probability and the unconditional probability are the same. The information that the rod

is too thin does not change the probability that the rod is too long. So, they are known to be independent

events.

Example-9: A system contains two components, A and B. Both components must function for the system

to work. The probability that component A fails is 0.08, and the probability that component B fails is 0.05.

Assume the two components function independently. What is the probability that the system functions?

Solution: The probability that the system functions is the probability that both components

function. Therefore,

P (system functions) =P (A functions & B functions) = P (A functions) . P (B functions)

= [1 – P (A fails)] . [1 – P (B fails)] = (1 − 0.08) .(1 − 0.05) = 0.874

~4~

Bayes Rule

Let, be a collection of mutually exclusive events whose union is the sample space Ω. Let, B

be an event such that ( ) . Then for any events Ai ,

( ) ( )

( )

∑ ( ) ( )

Example-10: Customers who purchase a certain make of car can order an engine in any of three sizes. Of

all cars sold, 45% have the smallest engine, 35% have the medium-sized one, and 20% have the largest. Of

cars with the smallest engine, 10% fail an emissions test within two years of purchase, while 12% of those

with the medium size and 15% of those with the largest engine fail. What is the probability that a

randomly chosen car will fail an emissions test within two years? A record for a failed emissions test is

chosen at random. What is the probability that it is for a car with a small engine?

Solution: Let B denote the event that a car fails an emissions test within two years. Let A1 denote the

event that a car has a small engine, A2 the event that a car has a medium-size engine and A3 the event that

a car has a large engine. Then

P(A1) = 0.45, P(A2) = 0.35, P(A3) = 0.20, P(B|A1) = 0.10, P(B|A2) = 0.12, P(B|A3) = 0.15

P(B) = P(B|A1)P(A1) + P(B|A2)P(A2) + P(B|A3)P(A3) = (0.10)(0.45) + (0.12)(0.35) + (0.15)(0.20) = 0.117

By Bayes’ rule,

( ) ( ) ( )( )

( )

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

Example-11: The proportion of people in a given community who have a certain disease is 0.005. A test is

available to diagnose the disease. If a person has the disease, the probability that the test will produce a

positive signal is 0.99. If a person does not have the disease, the probability that the test will produce a

positive signal is 0.01. If a person tests positive, what is the probability that the person actually has the

disease?

Solution: Let A represent the event that the person actually has the disease, and let B represent

the event that the test gives a positive signal.

We wish to find P(A|B). We are given the following probabilities:

P(A) = 0.005, P(B|A) = 0.99, P(B|A’) = 0.01

Using Bayes’ rule,

( ) ( )

( )

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

( )( )

( )( ) ( )( )

~5~

Exercise

Surface finish Roundness conforms

conforms yes no

yes 214 15 229

no 120 18 138

334 33 367

(a) What is the probability that the selected shaft conforms to surface finish requirements or to

roundness requirements?

(b) What is the probability that the selected shaft either conforms to surface finish requirements or

does not conform to roundness requirements?

(c) What is the probability that the selected shaft conforms to both surface finish and roundness

requirements?

(d) If a shaft is selected at random, what is the probability that the shaft conforms to surface finish

requirements?

2. Samples of a cast aluminum part are classified on the basis of surface finish (in microinches) and edge

finish. The results of 100 parts are summarized as follows:

Surface finish Edge finish

Excellent Good

Excellent 80 2

Good 10 8

Let A denote the event that a sample has excellent surface finish, and let B denote the event that a sample

has excellent length.

(a) If a part is selected at random, determine the following probabilities:

p(A) p(B) p(A’) p(A B) p(A B) p(A B)

(b) Are events A and B independent?

3. Disks of polycarbonate plastic from a supplier are analyzed for scratch and shock resistance. The

results from a certain number of disks are summarized as follows:

Shock resistance Scratch resistance

high low

high 110 90

low 160 50

(a) Let A denote the event that a disk has high shock resistance, and let B denote the event that a disk

has high scratch resistance. If a disk is selected at random, determine the following probabilities:

p(A) p(B) p(A’) p(A B) p(A B) p(A B)

(b) Are events A and B independent? Are these two events equally likely and mutually exclusive?

4. The following table provides an example of 400 parts classified by surface flaws and as (functionally)

defective.

Defective Surface Flaws

Yes (event F) No

Yes (event D) 10 18

No 30 342

(a) Find the probability of the number of defective ones for the parts with surface flaws.

(b) Find the probability of the number of defective ones for the parts without surface flaws.

(c) P(D ) P(D’|F) P(D’|F’) P(F’| D’)

~6~

5. A manufacturer of front lights for automobiles tests lamps under a high-humidity, high-temperature

environment using intensity and useful life as the responses of interest. The following table shows the

performance of 130 lamps. Find the following probabilities:

Intensity Useful life

Satisfactory (A) Unsatisfactory

Satisfactory (B) 117 3

Unsatisfactory 8 2

P(A B) P(A|B) P(B|A) P(A|B’) P(B|A’) P(A’|B’) P(B’|A’)

6. The following table summarizes the analysis of samples of galvanized steel for coating weight and

surface roughness:

Surface Coating weight

roughness High Low

High 12 16

Low 88 34

(a) If the coating weight of a sample is high, what is the probability that the surface roughness is high?

(b) If the surface roughness of a sample is low, what is the probability that the coating weight is low?

7. A maintenance firm has gathered the following information regarding the failure mechanisms for air

conditioning systems:

Evidence of Evidence of gas leaks

electrical failure Yes No

Yes 55 17

No 32 3

The units without evidence of gas leaks or electrical failure showed other types of failure. If this is a

representative sample of AC failure, find the probability

(a) That failure involves a gas leak.

(b) That there is evidence of electrical failure given that there was a gas leak.

(c) That there is evidence of a gas leak given that there is evidence of electrical failure.

8. Samples of emissions from three suppliers are classified for conformance to air-quality specifications.

The results from 100 samples are summarized as follows:

Supplier Conforms

Yes (B) No

1 (A) 22 8

2 25 5

3 30 10

(a) Are events A and B independent?

(b) Determine P(B|A) and P(A|B). Are they equal?

9. If P(A)=0.2 and P(B)=0.2 and A and B are mutually exclusive, are they independent?

10. Let A and B be events with P(A) = 0.8 and P(A ∩ B) = 0.2. For what value of P(B) will A and B be

independent?

11. A lot of 1000 components contain 300 that are defective. Two components are drawn at random and

tested. Let A be the event that the first component drawn is defective, and let B be the event that the

second component drawn is defective. Find the followings:

(a) P(A) P(B|A) P(A ∩ B) P(A’ ∩ B) P(B).

(b) Are A and B independent? Is it reasonable to treat A and B as though they were independent?

~7~

12. A lot of 100 semiconductor chips contains 20 that are defective. Two are selected randomly, without

replacement, from the lot.

(a) What is the probability that the first one selected is defective?

(b) What is the probability that the second one selected is defective given that the first one was

defective?

(c) What is the probability that both are defective?

(d) How does the answer to part (a-c) change if chips selected were replaced prior to the next

selection?

13. A batch of 500 containers for frozen orange juice contains 5 that are defective. Two are selected, at

random, without replacement, from the batch. Let A and B denote the events that the first and second

container selected is defective, respectively.

(a) Are A and B independent events?

(b) If the sampling were done with replacement, would A and B be independent?

(c) What is the probability that the second one selected is defective given that the first one was

defective?

(d) What is the probability that both are defective?

(e) What is the probability that both are acceptable?

14. A lot contains 15 castings from a local supplier and 25 castings from a supplier in the next state. Two

castings are selected randomly, without replacement, from the lot of 40. Let A be the event that the

first casting selected is from the local supplier, and let B denote the event that the second casting is

selected from the local supplier. Determine:

p(A) p(B) p(A ∪ B) p(A ∩ B)

15. The probability is 1% that an electrical connector that is kept dry fails during the warranty period of a

portable computer. If the connector is ever wet, the probability of a failure during the warranty period

is 5%. If 90% of the connectors are kept dry and 10% are wet, what proportion of connectors fail

during the warranty period?

16. Incoming calls to a customer service center are classified as complaints (75% of call) or requests for

information (25% of calls). Of the complaints, 40% deal with computer equipment that does not

respond and 57% deal with incomplete software installation; and in the remaining 3% of complaints

the user has improperly followed the installation instructions. The requests for information are

evenly divided on technical questions (50%) and requests to purchase more products (50%).

(a) What is the probability that an incoming call to the customer service center will be from a

customer who has not followed installation instructions properly?

(b) Find the probability that an incoming call is a request for purchasing more products.

17. Semiconductor lasers used in optical storage products require higher power levels for write

operations than for read operations. High-power-level operations lower the useful life of the laser.

Lasers in products used for backup of higher speed magnetic disks primarily write, and the

probability that the useful life exceeds five years is 0.95. Lasers that are in products that are used for

main storage spend approximately an equal amount of time reading and writing, and the probability

that the useful life exceeds five years is 0.995. Now, 25% of the products from a manufacturer are

used for backup and 75% of the products are used for main storage. Let A denote the event that a

laser’s useful life exceeds five years, and let B denote the event that a laser is in a product that is used

for backup. Determine the following:

(a) p(B) p(A | B) p(A | B′) p(A ∩ B) p(A ∩ B′) p(A)

(b) What is the probability that the useful life of a laser exceeds five years?

(c) What is the probability that a laser that failed before five years came from a product used for

backup?

~8~

18. Software to detect fraud in consumer phone cards tracks the number of metropolitan areas where

calls originate each day. It is found that 1% of the legitimate users originate calls from two or more

metropolitan areas in a single day. However, 30% of fraudulent users originate calls from two or more

metropolitan areas in a single day. The proportion of fraudulent users is 0.01%. If the same user

originates calls from two or more metropolitan areas in a single day, what is the probability that the

user is fraudulent?

19. Electric circuit boards are rated excellent, acceptable, or unacceptable. Suppose that 30% of boards

are excellent, 60%are acceptable, and 10% are unacceptable. Further, suppose that 10% of excellent

boards fail, 20% of acceptable boards fail, and 100% of unacceptable boards fail (unacceptable boards

are discarded without being used).

(a) What is the probability that a board is rated excellent and fails?

(b) What is the probability that a board fails?

(c) Given that a board fails, what is the probability that it was rated excellent?

20. Customers are used to evaluate preliminary product designs. In the past, 95% of highly successful

products received good reviews, 60% of moderately successful products received good reviews, and

10% of poor products received good reviews. In addition, 40% of products have been highly

successful, 35% have been moderately successful, and 25% have been poor products.

(a) What is the probability that a product attains a good review?

(b) If a new design attains a good review, what is the probability that it will be a highly successful

product?

(c) If a product does not attain a good review, what is the probability that it will be a highly successful

product?

21. A new analytical method to detect pollutants in water is being tested. This new method of chemical

analysis is important because, if adopted, it could be used to detect three different contaminants—

organic pollutants, volatile solvents, and chlorinated compounds—instead of having to use a single

test for each pollutant. The makers of the test claim that it can detect high levels of organic pollutants

with 99.7% accuracy, volatile solvents with 99.95% accuracy, and chlorinated compounds with 89.7%

accuracy. If a pollutant is not present, the test does not signal. Samples are prepared for the

calibration of the test and 60% of them are contaminated with organic pollutants, 27% with volatile

solvents, and 13% with traces of chlorinated compounds. A test sample is selected randomly.

(a) What is the probability that the test will signal?

(b) If the test signals, what is the probability that chlorinated compounds are present?

22. An inspector working for a manufacturing company has a 99% chance of correctly identifying

defective items and a 0.5% chance of incorrectly classifying a good item as defective. The company

has evidence that its line produces 0.9% of nonconforming items.

(a) What is the probability that an item selected for inspection is classified as defective?

(b) If an item selected at random is classified as non-defective, what is the probability that it is indeed

good?

…Best of luck…

~9~

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