Thayer Consultancy Background Brief

ABN # 65 648 097 123

South China Sea: China
Threatens ‘Possible
Consequences’
July 30, 2018

We are preparing a report that Chinese radio warnings ordering foreign aircraft and
ships to move away from China's man-made islands in the Spratlys have intensified
and increased with the emergence of the artificial islands. The Chinese messages
threaten "possible consequences" if what the Chinese regard as trespassers refuse to
immediately back away.
We request your input into the following issues:
Will China’s warnings cause an escalation of tensions with the occupied islands in the
Spratlys now in close proximity to each other?
How will it may play out in the future and what does it tell us about China's strategy
in the overall context of the territorial conflict?
The larger context is that some of the islands occupied by Vietnam, the Philippines
and Malaysia have or are being improved for increased military and civilian traffic by
aircraft and seacraft. These movements could be`challenged' by radio by China's
forces.
ANSWER: About three years ago I asked a People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN)
Admiral at the Shangri-La Dialogue what was the legal basis for Chinese challenges to
foreign aircraft flying over the Spratly Islands that they were entering a
“military/security alert zone.” The answer I received was that the People’s Liberation
Army always declared a military alert zone where ever it is deployed. In the case of
the South China Sea, this includes warships and artificial islands. This implies that the
boundaries are not fixed but change as PLAN ships sail.
The RAAF (Royal Australian Air Force) reports that its verbal encounters with the
Chinese are set piece and professional. The RAAF aircraft are contacted via radio,
informed that they are in a military alert zone, and asked to identify themselves and
their missions. The RAAF pilots reply they are flying in international airspace in accord
with international law. This exchange continues until the RAAF passes out of the
military alert zone.
I have not heard of China threatening “consequences” to aircraft. But China has
challenged Vietnamese ships on supply runs to the Spratlys by pulling alongside and
pointing side arms at the smaller Vietnamese craft. And U.S. FONOPs are shadowed
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by PLA Navy ships and aircraft. China apparently has ceased dangerous contacts with
U.S. maritime patrol aircraft such as the P-8 Poseidon and China has not attempted to
block the passage of US. warships as it had done in the past.
Since China has basically completed construction on its seven artificial islands, its
ability to monitor air and sea traffic in the Spratlys has increased exponentially. This
would obviously give China greater warning time in which to challenge and respond.
Your report about China warning of “possible consequences” appears an escalation in
Chinese rhetoric if not assertiveness. I can only speculate that this type of warning is
given to the ships of littoral states and not the U.S.
This year when RAN (Royal Australian Navy) ships crossed the South China Sea from
the Philippines and Malaysia to pay a port visit to Vietnam they too were challenged.
But is my understanding that the challenge was professional and was not
accompanied by any threat, direct or indirect. The recent transit of a French Navy
frigate reportedly was shadowed by as many as ten Chinese ships and vessels. Indian
Navy ships calling in at Nha Trang port in Vietnam several years ago were challenged
several years ago by Chinese radio. Indian navy officer said this was routine.
Obviously, the current situation could deteriorate quite quickly if China permanently
based military aircraft on Fiery Cross, Subi and Mischief reefs to challenge the
increased air and sea traffic by Vietnamese and Malaysian aircraft and vessels.
The current ASEAN-China Single Draft South China Sea Code of Conduct Negotiating
text includes several proposals to control and limit such activity. The ASEAN-China
Post Ministerial Conference (10 + 1) later this week is due to endorse the Single Draft
Negotiating text process. At this state the Single Draft Negotiating text is a compilation
running nineteen pages that is slated to be edited down in at least three readings by
ASEAN-China senior officials.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “South China Sea: China Threatens ‘Possible
Consequences’,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, July 30, 2018. All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.