Opprtunities Sport

A W I N F I E L D S T U D Y ™
Opportunities for a New

Family Sports, Recreation,
Aquatics, and Fitness Center in
Las Cruces and Dona Ana County
April 28, 2004

Las Cruces, New Mexico
The Winfield Consulting Group, Inc.

Market Research & Strategic Planning for Nonprofit Organizations
April 28, 2004
Jaye Hawkins Mike Johnson

Executive Director Director
Swim! Las Cruces City of Las Cruces Facility Department
3204 Risner Street P.O. Box 20000
Las Cruces, NM 88011 Las Cruces, NM 88004
Dear Jaye and Mike:
I am pleased to submit the results of our market research study on opportunities for a
new center for family recreation, sports, aquatics, and fitness in Las Cruces.
This report discusses the potential for annual membership for a new center for family
recreation, sports, aquatics, and fitness in Las Cruces. It also provides detailed
information on demographics, psychographics, and program interests of prospective
members and offers specific recommendations for the new center to reach its
maximum potential in annual membership.
We have enjoyed working with you and the other community leaders on this project.
We pride ourselves on the level of service that we extend to our clients and with that
in mind we hope that you will call on us if we can offer any guidance on implementing
the report plan.
Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions.
Respectfully submitted,
Li Li
Senior Vice President
enclosure
Opportunities for a New Family Recreation, Sports, Aquatics, and
Fitness Center in Las Cruces and Dona Ana County
Table of Contents
List of Figures 2
1 Methodology and Scope: What Questions Were Asked and How They Were Answered 5
2 Defining the Survey Area: Where the Survey Was Conducted 9
3 Findings among Area Residents 15
4 Membership Projections 19
5 Profile of Prospective Members 35
6 Interest in Child Care and Family Activities 41
7 Interest in Fitness and Wellness for Adults 45
8 Interest in Aquatics for Children, Teens, and Adults 51
9 Interest in Indoor Sports and Recreation for Children, Teens, and Adults 59
10 Interest in Outdoor Sports and Recreation for Children, Teens, and Adults 63
11 Interest in Special Programming for Older Children and Teens 67
12 Strategic Questions and Answers 71
© 2004 by The Winfield Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Winfield Consulting Group, Inc. 1

List of Figures
Figure 2.01 Census Tract Map of the Targeted Survey Area 11
Figure 2.02 Population Trends Analysis of the Targeted Survey Area—2000 Census 13
Figure 2.03 Household Growth by Census Tract in the Targeted Survey Area—2000 Census 14
Figure 3.01 Residents Currently Involved in Physical or Recreational Activities and the Top Activities 17
Figure 3.02 Residents Who Currently Belong to a Public or Private Health, Fitness, or Recreation Facility
and the Top Providers 17
Figure 4.01 Membership Options 22
Figure 4.02 Formula for Calculating the Number of Household Units 23
Figure 4.03 Potential Household Penetration for a New Center for Recreation, Sports, Aquatics, and
Fitness in Las Cruces 24
Figure 4.04 Potential Number of Households for a New Center for Recreation, Sports, Aquatics,
and Fitness in Las Cruces 25
Figure 4.05 Potential Number of Households for a New Center for Recreation, Sports, Aquatics,
and Fitness in Las Cruces 26
Figure 4.06 Location Preference Among Prospective Members 27
Figure 4.07 Number of Households for Each Proposed Location 28
Figure 4.08 Pricing Preference Among Prospective Members with A Great Deal of Interest 29
Figure 4.09 Table Formula for Calculating Revenue 30
Figure 4.10 Revenue Generated at Each Location 30
Figure 4.11 Additional Households With A Lot of Interest 31
Figure 4.12 Membership Projections Logic Model 32
Figure 4.13 Reasons Area Residents Not Interested in a New Center in Las Cruces 33
Figure 5.01 Age of Prospective Adult Members and Comparison to the Age of the General Population 37
Figure 5.02 Prospective Members with Children Under Age 18 in Their Households 37
Figure 5.03 Membership Categories Preferred by Prospective Members 38
Figure 5.04 Length of Time Prospective Members Have Lived in the Area 38
Figure 5.05 Census Tract Locations of Prospective Members 39
Figure 5.06 How Prospective Members Evaluated Their Current Level of Fitness 40
Figure 6.01 Prospective Members’ Interest in Child Care Programs 42
Figure 6.02 Prospective Members’ Interest in Summer Day Camps 43
2 The Winfield Consulting Group, Inc.

Figure 6.03 Prospective Members with Children’s Interest in Activities that Parents and Children
Can Do Together 44
Figure 7.01 Prospective Members’ Interest in Fitness Activities for Adults 47
Figure 7.02 Prospective Members’ Interest in Fitness Activities for Adults (continued) 48
Figure 7.03 Prospective Members’ Interest in Health and Wellness and Personal Service
Programs for Adults 49
Figure 7.04 How Prospective Members Want to be Served 50
Figure 8.01 Comparison of Interest Among Prospective Users in an Outdoor Seasonal Pool or
Indoor Year-round Pool for Children and Adults 53
Figure 8.02 Prospective Members’ Interest in Aquatic Programs for Children and Teens 54
Figure 8.03 Interest in Participation in Child Care Programs among Area Residents 55
Figure 8.04 Prospective Members’ Interest in Aquatic Programs for Adults 56
Figure 8.05 Prospective Members’ Interest in Aquatic Programs for Adults 57
Figure 9.01 Prospective Members’ Interest in Indoor Sports and Recreation Programs for
Children and Teens 60
Figure 9.02 Prospective Members’ Interest in Indoor Sports Leagues for Children and Teens 61
Figure 9.03 Prospective Members’ Interest in Specific Indoor Sports Leagues for Children and Teens 61
Figure 9.04 Prospective Members’ Interest in Indoor Recreational Activities for Adults 62
Figure 10.01 Prospective Members’ Interest in Outdoor Sports and Recreation Programs
for Children and Teens 64
Figure 10.02 Prospective Members’ Interest in Outdoor Sports Leagues for Children and Teens 65
Figure 10.03 Prospective Members’ Interest in Specific Outdoor Sports Leagues for Children and Teens 65
Figure 10.04 Prospective Members’ Interest in Outdoor Recreational Activities for Adults 66
Figure 11.01 Older Children and Teens’ Interest in Fitness and Recreation Activities for Older
Children and Teens 69
Figure 12.01 Summary of Usage for A New Center for Family Recreation, Sports, Aquatics, and
Fitness in Las Cruces 80
Figure 12.02 Space Allocation of Critical Features for A New Center for Family Recreation, Sports,
Aquatics, and Fitness in Las Cruces 81
The Winfield Consulting Group, Inc. 3

4 The Winfield Consulting Group, Inc.

ONE
CHAPTER
Methodology and Scope:

What Questions
Were Asked and
How They Were
Answered
Methodology and Scope 5

6 Methodology and Scope

Methodology
This study used the following methodology:
• The qualitative research was conducted through focus groups made up of community leaders,
volunteers and members of Swim! Las Cruces to ascertain trends and needs of the market area. A
market audit of local providers of similar services was also conducted at this time. The responses
and concerns in the qualitative phase were used toward the development of the survey instrument
used in the quantitative phase.
• The quantitative research in this study involved in-depth telephone interviews with over 400
randomly selected households in the targeted survey area. All interviews were conducted March
12–17, 2004. Approximately 46% of the interviews were conducted in Spanish. The boundaries of
the survey area are defined in the map on page 11.
In addition to random sampling, a quota system was developed to ensure that the number of
interviews completed in each census tract or zip code was proportionate to the number of
households in each census tract. Also the percentage of interviews with respondents ages 65 and
older was controlled to be consistent with the percentage of seniors ages 65 and older in the general
population. The methodology used resulted in findings with a 95% confidence level and a
statistical error of plus or minus 4.9%.
The recommendations provided in this report are based on this methodology and on the experience of
The Winfield Consulting Group, Inc., with over 600 similar market research studies with YMCAs
nationwide.
Scope
Specific questions addressed included, but are not limited to, the following:
• How can a new community center best serve the community with a wide variety of new programs
for children, teens, and adults?
• What types of services and features should be offered?
• How many households will join the community center or participate in its offerings? Which
features are critical for success and attract maximum number of users?
• Will the site under consideration will be viewed as most convenient by the majority of prospective
members? Should other sites be considered?
• What is the demographic and psychographic profile of prospective members?
• Given the economic diversity in the area, what kind of pricing policy will be most appealing to
prospective members?
• What opportunities for additional partnerships are present?
• What is the potential in revenue generated from new membership units and program participation
within the first 15-18 months of operation of the new facility?
Methodology and Scope 7

8 Methodology and Scope

TWO
CHAPTER
Defining the
Survey Area:
Where the Survey
Was Conducted
Defining the Survey Area 9

10 Defining the Survey Area

Census Tract Map of the Area Targeted for the Survey

The following map shows the census tracts in the targeted survey area. This map is based on the
census tracts from the 2000 Census.
Hope Rd
Dona Ana Rd
W E 13.02
N Jornada Rd
Rd
rpe
Tho
S Dona Ana 13.01

13.03
Census Tract Boundary
Census Tract Code Bold Numbers

25
Major Road d
Dona Ana Hill gR
on
s tr
River/creek Ar
m
o6
1.01 70
25 yN
wa
Interstate ste
St
Wa
12.01
in
Ma
d
yR
70 ve
US Highway N 1.02 r uc
eA
alle
Sp
N
So
NV
State/Local Highway 185 Las Cruces

lan
y
adle
2 3
o
EH
Dr
185 Pica
sso 4.02
4.01
5
Rio G
Proposed Site for the New 70

Am a
dor
Community Center near the 6 7

rand
292 A ve
Highland Elementary School Las Cruces E Idah
o
Miss
ouri
e
Ca
10 8
lle
9
15
De
ve
Proposed Site for the New sity A
E
11.02 Univer
lP
as
Community Center near the University Park

o
Mesilla 10
Benavidez Community Center 12.02
Ave De Mesilla
rte 10 25
e l No e
eD Av
Call ion
Un
Proposed Site for the New

Community Center at the 11.01
corner of Solano and Hadley 10
Addington Rd
18.01
Mesquite
16
Vado Rd
Vado
Afton Rd
Figure 2.01 Census Tract Map of the Targeted Survey Area

Demographic and Population Trends Analysis of the

Area Targeted for the Survey, 2000–2007
The table on this and the following page details the population trends in the targeted survey area
for the years 2000–2007. This information is provided by the United States Census Bureau.
2000 2003 2008
Census Estimates Projections
Total Population 126,988 132,025 139,371
6.8%
Total Households 46,042 48,209 51,478
Increase
Total Population By Race

White 69% 69% 69%
African American 2% 2% 2%
American Indian 2% 2% 2%
Asian/Pacific Islander 1% 1% 1%
Other Race 23% 23% 23%
Two or more Races 4% 4% 4%
Hispanic 56% 59% 64%
Total Population By Gender

Male 49% 49% 49%
Female 51% 51% 51%
Total Population by Age

0–5 years 7% 7% 7%
Under
5–9 years 8% 7% 7% Age 19:
29%
10–14 years 8% 7% 7% 29%
15–19 years 9% 8% 8%
20–24 years 10% 10% 9%
25–34 years 13% 14% 16%
35–44 years 14% 13% 12%
45–54 years 12% 12% 13%
55–64 years 8% 9% 10%
65–74 years 7% 6% 7% Age 65
75–84 years 4% 4% 11% 5% and Over:
85 + years 1% 1% 0% 12%
100% 100% 100%
(continued on next page)

Demographic and Population Trends Analysis

(continued)
2003 2008
Estimates Projections
General Households Data

Household Population 127,072 134,418
Average Household Size 2.66 2.64
General Income Data

Median Household Income $31,387 $34,394
Average Household Income $42,437 $46,549
Household Income Distribution Income

$0–$14,999 23% 21% under
$15,000–$24,999 15% 51% 15% $35,000:
$25,000–$34,999 14% 13% 47%
$35,000–$49,999 17% 16%
$50,000–$74,999 16% 17%
$75,000–$99,999 8% 9%
$100,000–$149,999 5% 7%
$150,000 and over 2% 3%
100% 100%
Figure 2.02 Population Trends Analysis of the Targeted Survey Area—2000 Census

How the Number of Households in the Census Tracts

Targeted for the Survey Will Change, 2003–2008
The table on this page gives the household growth trends by census tract in the targeted survey area for
the years 2003–2008. This information was obtained from the United States Census Bureau.
Census Tract 2003 Households 2008 Households % of Change
0001.01* 3,036 3,418 12.6%
0001.02 1,465 1,591 8.6%
0002.00 3,028 3,120 3.0%
0003.00 1,473 1,538 4.4%
0004.01 1,079 1,147 6.3%
0004.02* 2,909 3,534 21.5%
0005.00 1,163 1,204 3.5%
0006.00 1,194 1,240 3.9%
0007.00 2,388 2,461 3.1%
0008.00 1,585 1,717 8.3%
0009.00 2,721 2,791 2.6%
0010.00 465 547 17.6%
0011.01 3,346 3,434 2.6%
0011.02 1,239 1,272 2.7%
0012.01* 2,704 3,224 19.2%
0012.02 5,136 5,599 9.0%
0013.01 3,634 3,728 2.6%
0013.02 2,641 2,710 2.6%
0013.03 2,483 2,565 3.3%
0015.00 1,794 1,840 2.6%
0016.00 971 997 2.7%
0018.01 1,755 1,801 2.6%
Total 48,209 51,478 6.8%
Figure 2.03 Household Growth by Census Tract in the Targeted Survey Area—2000 Census
THREE
CHAPTER
Findings
Among
Area
Residents
Findings among Area Residents 15

16 Findings among Area Residents

Residents’ Fitness and Top Fitness and Recreation Activities*
Recreation Activities
(percentage of respondents/multiple responses)
Walking/running 24%
The chart below shows the percentage of residents
Various exercise 20%
currently involved in physical or recreational
Workout equipment/weights 6%
activities, while the table to the right lists the top
Baseball/softball 3%
activities.
Soccer 3%
Swimming 3%
Aerobics 2%
Basketball 2%
No Yes *All other activities fell at 1% or below.

51% 49%
Figure 3.01 Residents Currently Involved in Physical or Recreational Activities and the Top Activities
Providers
Top Health, Fitness, and Recreation Providers*
The chart below shows the percentage of (percentage of respondents/multiple responses)
residents who currently belong to or are
affiliated with a public or private health, New Mexico University 6%
fitness, or recreation facility, while the table to Gold’s Gym 4%
the right shows the top providers. Area parks and recreation 3%
At work or school 3%
Active and Own equipment/work out at home 3%
affiliated Other 2%
27% Tom Yong’s 2%
Curves 1%
Inactive World Gym 1%
51% Apartment/complex 1%
Area country clubs 1%
Active but not *All other providers fell below 1%.

affiliated
22%
Figure 3.02 Residents Who Currently Belong to a Public or Private Health, Fitness, or Recreation Facility
and the Top Providers
Findings among Area Residents 17

18 Findings among Area Residents

FOUR
CHAPTER
Membership
Projections
Membership Projections 19
20 Membership Projections
Overview
To determine the opportunities for a new center for recreation, sports, aquatics, and fitness in Las
Cruces, The Winfield Consulting Group conducted telephone interviews with 402 households in the
targeted service area. Among all households randomly selected, 400 households did not currently
belong to a YMCA and were taken through the in-depth interview. Two (2) households refused to
participate in the in-depth interview for various reasons.
Location
The survey of 400 non-YMCA households was designed to test the levels of interest in joining a new
center at one of the following three locations:
• in Las Cruces next to the Meerscheidt Recreation Center at Hadley Avenue and Solano Drive
close to Unidad Park
• in Las Cruces within a half mile of Valley Drive and Picacho Avenue
• in northeast Las Cruces off US 70 near Las Colinas, the Highland Elementary School, and the
animal shelter
Membership Options
The following table details the facilities, programs, and services included as part of membership at a
new center for recreation, sports, aquatics, and fitness in Las Cruces.
Option I
Facilities, Programs, and Services Include
• an indoor warm-water pool for recreational swimming and swim lessons

• a separate indoor pool for water therapy
• a first-class fitness center with cardiovascular and muscle-strengthening equipment
• a free 12-week personalized fitness and health plan
• free aerobics and aquatic exercise classes
• a variety of health programs
• weight training, Spinning®, and kickboxing classes
• ropes courses and climbing classes
• a teen center with fitness equipment, computers, and pool tables
• an indoor playground/kids’ gym for older kids
• free baby-sitting while parents work out
• year-round showers and lockers including separate ones for children and families
Option II Includes the addition of an indoor multipurpose gymnasium for indoor sports
Option III Includes the addition of an indoor cool-water pool for lap swimming and swim teams
Monthly Rates
Membership Category One-Time Joining Fee
Higher Rates Lower Rates
Youth/Teen Under Age 18 $18 $14 no joining fee
Young Adult Ages 18–23 $28 $22 $75
Individual Adult Age 24 or Over $32 $26 $50
Adult Couple $44 $35 $100
Family $50 $40 $100
Senior Age 65 or Over $28 $22 $75
Figure 4.01 Membership Options
The proposed higher rates are the current rates of the El Paso YMCA. The proposed lower rates are
20% lower than the higher rates. Both rates allow access to only the new center in Las Cruces.
Given the percentage of households with a great deal of interest in an annual membership at a new
center in Las Cruces, we can determine the number of households in the targeted survey area with the
highest level of interest in an annual membership. We use the following formula (Figure 4.02) to
project the number of households with a great deal of interest.
% of Respondents with Adjusted Number Number of Households

X =
a Great Deal of Interest of Households with a Great Deal of Interest
Figure 4.02 Formula for Calculating the Number of Household Units
According to the latest census data obtained from Survey Sampling, the total number of households in
the targeted survey area is projected at 51,478 for the year 2008. Normally we would exclude the
number of households that currently belong to YMCAs in the area. However, since there are no
current YMCA households, the projected total number of households in the targeted service area that
will be used in forecasting is 51,478.
Potential Household Penetration for a New Center in

Las Cruces
The following graph illustrates the percentage of households with a great deal of interest in joining a
new center for recreation, sports, aquatics, and fitness in Las Cruces regardless of location.
Potential Household Penetration for a

New Center for Recreation, Sports,
Aquatics, and Fitness
5.2%
in Las Cruces
Percentage of Households with A Great Deal of Interest in

Option I [Indoor Warm-Water Pool, Fitness Center, Teen Center,
Kids' Gym] at Both Rates 3.7%

Option II [Indoor Warm-Water Pool, Fitness Center, Teen Center,
Kids' Gym PLUS Indoor Gym] at Both Rates
1.0%

Option III [Indoor Warm-Water Pool, Fitness Center, Teen 0.5%
Center, Kids' Gym PLUS Indoor Cool-Water Pool] at Both Rates
Figure 4.03 Potential Household Penetration for a New Center

for Recreation, Sports, Aquatics, and Fitness in Las Cruces
Regardless of Location
With the total number of households and the level of interest in joining a new center in Las Cruces, the
Consultant is able to calculate the number of household units with a great deal of interest regardless of
location, as illustrated in the following graph.
Potential Number of Households

with a Great Deal of Interest 2,676*
Number of Households with A Great Deal of Interest in Option I

[Indoor Warm-Water Pool, Fitness Center, Gym, Teen Center,
Kids' Gym] at Both Rates
1,905
Number of Households with A Great Deal of Interest in Option II

Kids' Gym PLUS Indoor Gym] at Both Rates
514
Number of Households with A Great Deal of Interest in Option III

Kids' Gym PLUS Indoor Cool-Water Pool] at Both Rates 257
*This number does not take into account prospective members who may terminate their memberships.
Figure 4.04 Potential Number of Households for a New Center

Regardless of Location (Graph)
The following table shows the relationship between Figure 4.03 and Figure 4.04 on the previous two
pages and calculates the number of households with a great deal of interest in joining a new center for
recreation, sports, aquatics, and fitness in Las Cruces.
Penetration for
Number of
a New Center in Total
Membership Option Households
Las Cruces X Number of =
Rate Structure Regardless of
(Figure 4.03, page 24) Households
Location
= 4.2%
Option I
Indoor pool, fitness center,
3.7% X 51,478 = 1,905
teen center, kids’ gym
Both Rates
Option II
teen center, kids’ gym 1.0% X 51,478 = 514
PLUS Indoor Gym
Both Rates
Option III
teen center, kids’ gym 0.5% X 51,478 = 257
PLUS Indoor Cool-Water Pool
Both Rates
Total Number of Household Units Sold
During the First 15–18 Months of Operations at a
New Center for Recreation, Sports, Aquatics, and Fitness in Las Cruces
= 2,676*
Figure 4.05 Potential Number of Households for a New Center

Regardless of Location (Table)
Location Preference
The following graph shows the location preference among prospective members of a new center in
Las Cruces. The percentages reflect those respondents who chose a given location either as their
first choice, second choice, or indicated that any location was their preference.
Total = 74%
Total = 71%
8%
8%
23%
34%
Total = 29%
8%
43% 3%
29%
18%
Hadley Ave/Solano Valley Drive/Picacho Off US 70 near Las

Drive Ave Colinas
First Choice Second Choice Any
Figure 4.06 Location Preference Among Prospective Members
Number of Households for Each Location

The following table shows the number of households for a new center in Las Cruces at each
proposed location.
Number of Households
Percent-
Regardless of Number of
Preference
Membership Option Location X = Households
for Location
(Figure 4.05, page 26) for Location
(Figure 4.06, page 27)
= 2,676
Option I
1,905 X 74% = 1,410
Both Rates
Option II
514 X 74% = 380
Both Rates
Option III
257 X 74% = 190
Both Rates
at the Proposed Hadley Avenue/Solano Drive Location
1,980*
Option I
1,905 X 71% = 1,353
Both Rates
Option II
514 X 71% = 365
Both Rates
Option III
257 X 71% = 182
Both Rates
at the Proposed Valley Drive/Picacho Avenue Location
1,900*
Option I
1,905 X 29% = 552
Both Rates
Option II
514 X 29% = 149
Both Rates
Option III
257 X 29% = 75
Both Rates
at the Proposed Off US 70 Location
776*
Figure 4.07 Number of Households for Each Proposed Location
Preference for Each Rate Structure

The following pie chart shows the willingness of prospective members with a great deal of interest
in joining a new center for recreation, sports, aquatics, and fitness in Las Cruces to pay one of the
two rate structures offered.
Higher Rates
52%
20% Lower Rates
48%
Figure 4.08 Pricing Preference Among Prospective Members with A Great Deal of Interest
Revenue Generated from Household Units Sold at

Each Proposed Location for a New Center in Las
Cruces
We use the following table formula (Figure 4.09) to estimate the membership revenue from household
units sold (not retained) at each location for a new center in Las Cruces. Please note that the revenue
forecasts do not include joining fees or revenue from program participation.
Percentage of Prospective
Number of Units at Annual Revenue
X Members Interested in a X =
Each Rate Structure Rate Generated
Particular Membership Category
X 16% Youth/Teen Memberships X $ = $
X 6% Young Adult Memberships X $ = $

number of households at
the higher rates
X 33% Individual Adult Memberships X $ = $
and the 20% lower rates
for each location X 6% Adult Couple Memberships X $ = $
X 34% Family Memberships X $ = $
X 5% Senior Memberships X $ = $
Subtotal for Each Rate Structure $

Total Revenue Generated from Household Units Sold at a
New Center for Recreation, Sports, Aquatics, and Fitness in Las Cruces $
at Each Proposed Location
Figure 4.09 Table Formula for Calculating Revenue
Annual Revenue* from Prospective Members with A Great Deal of Interest
$776,854
$745,431
$304,490
Hadley Ave/Solano Dr Valley Dr/Picacho Ave Off US 70
*Revenue loss from members terminating during their first year would need to be subtracted from this amount.
Figure 4.10 Revenue Generated at Each Location
Additional Households With A Lot of Interest

The Winfield Consulting Group bases its initial forecasts on those respondents who indicated a great
deal of interest in joining a particular YMCA. In other words, our initial forecasts are based on those
who respond as a “4” on a scale of 0 to 4, where 0 means no interest at all and 4 means a great deal of
interest.
In some cases, it is appropriate to document the “3s”, or those with a lot of interest in joining. One
such case is when those with a lot of interest exceed those with a great deal of interest—as is the case
for a new center in Las Cruces.
The table below shows the additional number of households with a lot of interest in joining one of the
three proposed locations. Please note that all units from respondents with a lot of interest in joining are
captured at the 20% lower rates.
Total Households
Additional Units Households with
with A Lot of Interest
Location From Those With + A Great Deal of =
and A Great Deal of
A Lot of Interest Interest
Interest
Hadley Ave/Solano Dr 5,295 + 1,980 = 7,275
Valley Dr/Picacho Ave 5,080 + 1,900 = 6,980
Off US 70 2,075 + 776 = 2,851
Figure 4.11 Additional Households With A Lot of Interest
Membership Projections Logic Model
Total Number of Households in the Targeted Service Area

51,478
Percentage of Households with A Great Deal of Interest in Joining

a new Center for Recreation, Sports, Aquatics, and Fitness in Las Cruces
5.2%
2,676 units
Hadley Avenue/Solano Drive Valley Drive/Picacho Avenue Off US 70

Location Preference Location Preference Location Preference
74% 71% 29%
Households and Revenue Households and Revenue Households and Revenue

with A Great Deal of Interest with A Great Deal of Interest with A Great Deal of Interest
1,980 units 1,900 units 776 units
$776,854 $745,431 $304,490
Additional Households and Revenue Additional Households and Revenue Additional Households and Revenue
with A Lot of Interest with A Lot of Interest with A Lot of Interest
5,295 units 5,080 units 2,075 units
$1,838,848 $1,764,182 $720,606
Figure 4.12 Membership Projections Logic Model
Reasons Area Residents Not Interested

The following table shows the reasons why residents, who indicated so, are not interested in joining a
new center for recreation, sports, aquatics, and fitness in Las Cruces.
Percentage of Those Not Interested

Response Item
(Multiple Responses OK)
Lack of Interest/Personal Barriers 69%
Just not interested 33%
No time 13%
Wouldn’t use 13%
Too old 5%
Health problems 3%
Not into fitness 1%

Only interested in programs 1%
Satisfied with Current Affiliation/Situation 22%
Own equipment/exercise at home 9%
Satisfied where I currently belong 9%
Access at work/school 3%
Prefer outdoor activities 1%
Money-Related 3%
Costs too much/can’t afford 3%
Location-Related 3%
Moving/visiting 2%
Location not convenient 1%
Child-Related 2%
No kids 2%
Need Additional Information 1%

Would like to see new center first 1%
Figure 4.13 Reasons Area Residents Not Interested in a New Center in Las Cruces
FIVE
CHAPTER
Profile of
Prospective
Members
Profile of Prospective Members 35

36 Profile of Prospective Members

Age
The following table shows the age of adult prospective members, while the graph compares the age of
prospective members to the age of the general population.
30%
Age of Adult Prospective Members
25%
Ages 18–19 <1%
20%
Ages 20–24 10%
Ages 25–34 19% 15%
Ages 35–44 27% 10%
Ages 45–54 19%

5%
Ages 55–64 11%
0%
Ages 65 + 5% Ages Ages Ages Ages Ages Ages Ages
18-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Refused 9%
Age of General Adult Population
Age of Prospective Adult Members
Figure 5.01 Age of Prospective Adult Members and Comparison to the Age of the General Population
Households with Children

The following graph shows the percentage of
prospective members with children under age
18 in their households.
Yes
No 42%
58%
Figure 5.02 Prospective Members with Children

Under Age 18 in Their Households

Membership Category
The following chart shows the membership categories preferred by prospective members.
Individual adult
age 24 or over
33% Adult couple
6%
A senior age
65 and over
5%
Young adult
age 18–23
Family
6%
34%
Youth/teen under 18
16%
Figure 5.03 Membership Categories Preferred by Prospective Members
Length of Time Living in the Area

The following graph shows how long prospective members have lived in the area.
4–10 years
21%
1–3 years
14%
< 1 year
3%
Refused
3%
> 10 years
59%
Figure 5.04 Length of Time Prospective Members Have Lived in the Area

Census Tract Locations

The following map defines the census tract locations of prospective members.
Hope Rd
Dona Ana Rd
W E
13.02
N Jornada Rd
Rd
rpe
Tho
S
Dona Ana 13.01
13.03
Census Tract Boundary
Census Tract Code Bold Numbers

25
Major Road Rd
Dona Ana Hill tro
ng
River/creek ms
Ar
o6
1.01 70
25 yN
wa
Interstate ste
St
Wa
in
Ma
12.01
d
yR
ve
US Highway
70 N
1.02 ruc
eA
alle
Sp
N
So
NV
State/Local Highway 185 Las Cruces

l an
y
adle
2 3
o
EH
Dr
Prospective Member
185 Pica
cho 4.02
5 4.01
R io G
Proposed Site for the New 70

Ama
dor
Community Center near the 6

ra n
292 7 Ave
Highland Elementary School Las Cruces E Idah
o
ouri
de
Miss
Ca
10 8
lle
9
15
De
ve
Proposed Site for the New rsity A
El
11.02 Unive 25
Pa
Community Center near the

so
Mesilla 10
10
Benavidez Community Center University Park 12.02
Ave De Mesilla
orte
el N e
eD Av
Call ion
Un
Proposed Site for the New

Community Center at the 11.01
corner of Solano and Hadley 10
Addington Rd
18.01
Mesquite
16
Vado Rd
Vado
Afton Rd
Figure 5.05 Census Tract Locations of Prospective Members

Level of Fitness
The following charts show how prospective members evaluated their current level of
physical fitness. The first shows all prospective members, the second and third show male and female
prospective members respectively.
Not fit
11% Somewhat fit
43%
All Prospective Not fit at all
Members 3%
Don't know
16%
Fit
Very fit 26%
1%
Yet-to-be-fit*
35%
Male
Prospective
Members
Fit
Don't know
45%
20%
Female Don't know

Prospective 11%
Members Yet-to-be-fit*
68%
Fit
21%
* Yet-to-be-fit includes not fit at all, not fit, and somewhat fit.
Figure 5.06 How Prospective Members Evaluated Their Current Level of Fitness

SIX
CHAPTER
Interest in
Child Care and
Family Activities
Child Care and Family Activities 41

Interest in Child Care Programs

The following table shows the level of interest in child care programs of prospective members with
children under 18 in the household.
Ages Ages Ages Ages

Child Care Programs*
0–2 3–5 6–9 10–13
Baby-sitting while parents work out Low Low
Full-day licensed child care at $100/week Very Low Low
Kids’ gym with supervised features such as moonwalks

Moderate Low Low
and a climbing maze
Full-day care on school holidays at the center at

Low Low Very Low
$20/day
Licensed before- and after-school programs at the

Low Low
center at $80/week
Computer-assisted tutoring and homework help at the

Low Low
center at $7/hour
Very Low = <1% Low = 1%–4% Moderate = 5%–9% High = 10%–14% Very High = 15%+
*Twice-a-week fun and sports club at $10/day was also tested and received insignificant interest.
Figure 6.01 Prospective Members’ Interest in Child Care Programs
42 Child Care and Family Activities

Interest in Summer Day Camps

The following table shows the interest prospective members with children had in different types of
summer day camps at an average cost of $80/week.
Ages Ages Ages Ages

Summer Camps
3–5 6–9 10–13 14–17
Traditional summer day camp with swimming,

Moderate Moderate Moderate
games, and arts and crafts
Creative arts camp with drawing, drama, and music Moderate Moderate Low
Full-day sports camp* Very Low Low Low Low
Animals and nature camp Low Low Low
Computer camp that teaches computer skills and

Low Low Very Low
how to use the Internet
Teen adventure camp with hiking, high ropes

Low Low
courses, and water sports
Science camp with model rockets in conjunction with

Low Very Low
White Sands Space Center
*Outdoor soccer was cited most often.

Figure 6.02 Prospective Members’ Interest in Summer Day Camps
Child Care and Family Activities 43

Interest in Activities Parents and Children

Can Do Together
The following graph shows the interest prospective members with children had in activities that
parents and children can do together.
A place where parents 21%

can work out while kids
study, play, or exercise
Family Fun Night or 18%

birthday parties at the
pool
Weekend picnics and 18%

holiday parties
Family night with

9%
themes such as trivia
games, karaoke, and
casino
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Figure 6.03 Prospective Members with Children’s Interest in Activities that Parents and
Children Can Do Together
44 Child Care and Family Activities

SEVEN
CHAPTER
Interest in
Fitness and
Wellness
for Adults
Fitness and Wellness for Adults 45

46 Fitness and Wellness for Adults

Interest in Fitness Activities for Adults

The following graph shows prospective members’ interest in fitness activities for adults.
Walking or running on an 68%

indoor track
Free weights and

55%
strength-training
equipment
55%
Cardiovascular area
Strength training program 44%

just for women
Class to improve
43%
coordination, flexibility,
and balance
A women's studio with 40%

weight management like
Weight Watchers
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Figure 7.01 Prospective Members’ Interest in Fitness Activities for Adults

Interest in Fitness Activities for Adults (continued)

The following graph shows prospective members’ interest in fitness activities for adults.
Aerobics studio with 40%

kickboxing and
Spinning®
30-minute circuit training 38%

on 10 pieces of
equipment
Stress reducing activities 38%

like yoga and tai chi
Group classes on cardio 27%

and resistance machines
Strength, stretching, and

cardio classes like 22%
Pilates and Body
Pump™ at $30/8 weeks
Martial arts and self- 16%

defense classes at $25/8
weeks
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Figure 7.02 Prospective Members’ Interest in Fitness Activities for Adults (continued)

Interest in Health and Wellness Programs and

Personal Service Programs for Adults
The following graph shows prospective members’ interest in health and wellness and personal
service programs for adults. Most health and wellness programs could be offered in partnership
with a local hospital.
39%
Sauna, steam, and
whirlpool
Health programs like

screening and testing, 24%
preventing
osteoporosis, and
therapeutic exercise
Classes combining
exercise and weight 18%
management at about
$35/8-week class
Classes in nutrition, 14%

diet, and low-fat
cooking
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Figure 7.03 Prospective Members’ Interest in Health and Wellness and Personal
Service Programs for Adults

How Prospective Members Want to be Served

The following graph shows how prospective members said they want to be served.
Having the staff offer

77%
advice on proper
techniques
A separate workout 56%

space for beginners
Working out with a

55%
group of adults at your
fitness level
A free 12-week personal

52%
plan monitored by the
staff
Bilingual staff in English 51%

and Spanish
A lounge area serving 46%

coffee, healthy snacks
Working out with adults

26%
with similar medical
conditions
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Figure 7.04 How Prospective Members Want to be Served

EIGHT
CHAPTER
Interest in
Aquatics
for Children,
Teens,
and Adults
Aquatics for Children and Adults 51

52 Aquatics for Children and Adults

Preferred Type of Pool

The pair of graphs show prospective members’ preference for a warm-water pool for recreational
swimming and lessons with features such as tubes and slides, or a cool-water pool for lap swimming
and swim teams for themselves and for their children.
Warm-water Pool Cool-water Pool
65% OR
40%
9%
15%
Children Adults Children Adults
42% of adult prospective users said either one for their children and 24% said either one for themselves.
Figure 8.01 Comparison of Interest Among Prospective Users in an Outdoor Seasonal Pool or Indoor
Year-round Pool for Children and Adults

Interest in Participation in Aquatic Programs for

Children and Teens among Prospective Members
The following table shows interest among prospective members* in aquatic programs for children
and teens.
Ages Ages Ages Ages Ages

Aquatic Programs
Infant–2 3–5 6–9 10–13 14–17
Parent and infant swim classes at about

Low
$25/8-week session
Recreational swimming Moderate Very High Very High High
Swim lessons at about $30/8-week session Moderate Moderate Moderate Low
Swim teams at $129/season

Low Low Very Low
(3 months)
Scuba diving at $60/8-weeks Low Low
Lifeguard training at $115/8 weeks Low
Figure 8.02 Prospective Members’ Interest in Aquatic Programs for Children and Teens
*Prospective members are those area residents that had at least a lot of interest in joining a new center.

Interest in Participation in Aquatic Programs for

Children and Teens among Area Residents
The following table shows interest among area residents who are not prospective members in aquatic
programs for children and teens.
Ages Ages Ages Ages

Aquatic Programs
3–5 6–9 10–13 14–17
Recreational swimming 146 146 146 146
Swim lessons at about $30/8-week session — — 146 146
Scuba diving at $60/8-weeks — 146
Very Low = 0–49 Low = 50–99 Moderate = 100–199 High = 200–299 Very High = 300+
Households Households Households Households Households
Figure 8.03 Interest in Participation in Child Care Programs among Area Residents
Participation levels may be low because families with children were more likely to join a new center
resulting in minimal leftover demand among households with children who do not want to join.

Interest in Aquatic Programs for Adults among

Prospective Members
The following graph shows prospective adult members’ interest in activities in a pool.
Recreational 60%
swimming
Water aerobics for 42%

therapeutic exercise
Aqua running and 34%

walking
10%
Lap swimming*
* Of those prospective
members who said they were
3% interested in lap swimming,
Swimming lessons at
83% said they were currently
$40/8-week session lap swimmers.
Scuba diving at 1%
$60/8-week session
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Figure 8.04 Prospective Members’ Interest in Aquatic Programs for Adults

Interest in Aquatic Programs for Adults among

Area Residents
The following graph shows the level of interest in activities in a pool among all area residents who
are not interested in joining a new center.
Aquatic Programs Adult Participants
Recreational swimming 1,952
Water aerobics 1,366
Aqua walking and running 927
Lap swimming 439
Very Low = 0–99 Low = 100–299 Moderate = 300–599 High = 600–999 Very High = 1000+
Households Households Households Households Households
Figure 8.05 Prospective Members’ Interest in Aquatic Programs for Adults


NINE
CHAPTER
Interest in
Indoor Sports
and Recreation
for Children,
Teens,
and Adults
Indoor Sports and Recreation for 59

Children and Adults
Interest in Indoor Sports and Recreation Programs for

Children and Teens
The following table shows prospective members with children’s interest in indoor sports and
recreation programs for children and teens.
Sports and Recreation Programs Ages Ages Ages Ages

(average cost of $30/8 weeks) 3–5 6–9 10–13 14–17
Creative arts courses like drawing, drama, and

Moderate High Moderate Low
music
Gymnastics and tumbling Moderate Moderate
Martial arts and self-defense classes Low Moderate Moderate Low
Dance classes such as ballet, tap, or Folklorio Low Low
One-hour three-times-a-week sports and

Low Low Very Low Very Low
recreation program for home-schooled children
Indoor climbing on a climbing wall Low Low
Figure 9.01 Prospective Members’ Interest in Indoor Sports and Recreation Programs for Children and Teens
60 Indoor Sports and Recreation for

Children and Adults
Interest in Indoor Sports Leagues for

Children and Teens
The following graph shows prospective members with children’s interest in indoor sports leagues for
children and teens. The table below shows the the level of interest in the individual sports leagues of
those prospective members who showed an interest.
Don't know
Maybe 6%
23%
Yes
No 19%
52%
Figure 9.02 Prospective Members’ Interest in Indoor

Sports Leagues for Children and Teens
Sports Leagues Ages Ages Ages Ages

(average cost of $40/8-week session) 3–5 6–9 10–13 14–17
Basketball Low Moderate High Low
Indoor soccer Low Moderate Moderate Low
Volleyball Very Low Very Low Low Low
Figure 9.03 Prospective Members’ Interest in Specific Indoor Sports Leagues for Children and Teens
Indoor Sports and Recreation for 61

Children and Adults
Interest in Indoor Recreational Activities for Adults

The following graph shows prospective members’ interest in indoor recreational features and
activities for adults.
Indoor climbing on a 22%

climbing wall
Dance classes such

as ballroom, line 17%
dancing, and Folklorio
at $30/8 weeks
Sports leagues for 11%

adults at $35/person
for a season*
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
*Basketball was cited most often, followed by volleyball, soccer and racquetball.
Figure 9.04 Prospective Members’ Interest in Indoor Recreational Activities for Adults
62 Indoor Sports and Recreation for

Children and Adults
TEN
CHAPTER
Interest in
Outdoor Sports
and Recreation
for Children,
Teens, and Adults
Outdoor Sports and Recreation for 63

Children and Adults
Interest in Outdoor Sports and Recreation Programs

for Children and Teens
The following table shows the interest prospective members with children had in outdoor sports and
recreation programs for children and teens.
Sports and Recreation Programs Ages Ages

(average cost of $30/8 weeks) 10–13 14–17
Outdoor in-line skating and skateboarding on a

Moderate Low
supervised rink
Figure 10.01 Prospective Members’ Interest in Outdoor Sports and Recreation Programs
for Children and Teens
64 Outdoor Sports and Recreation for

Children and Adults
Interest in Outdoor Sports Leagues for

Children and Teens
The following graph shows the interest prospective members with children had in outdoor sports
leagues for children and teens. The table below shows the the level of interest in the individual sports
leagues of those prospective members who showed an interest.
Yes
25% No
44%
Don't know Maybe

12% 19%
Figure 10.02 Prospective Members’ Interest in Outdoor

Sports Leagues for Children and Teens
Ages Ages Ages Ages

Sports Leagues at $40/8 weeks
3–5 6–9 10–13 14–17
Outdoor soccer Low Moderate High Low
Softball Low Low Low Low
Flag football Low Low Low Very Low
T-ball Low Low Very Low Low
Baseball Very Low Low Low Low
Tennis Very Low Low Low Very Low
Figure 10.03 Prospective Members’ Interest in Specific Outdoor Sports Leagues for Children and Teens
Outdoor Sports and Recreation for 65

Children and Adults
Interest in Outdoor Recreational Activities for Adults

The following graph shows prospective members’ interest in outdoor recreational activities for
adults.
Outdoor skate park for 18%

skateboarding, and in-
line skating
Sports leagues for 5%

adults at $35/person for
a season*
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
*Baseball/softball and tennis were cited most often.

Figure 10.04 Prospective Members’ Interest in Outdoor Recreational Activities for Adults
66 Outdoor Sports and Recreation for

Children and Adults
ELEVEN
CHAPTER
Interest in
Special
Programming
Older Children
and Teens
Interest in Special Programming for 67

Older Children and Teens
68 Interest in Special Programming for

Interest in Fitness and Recreation Activities for

The following table shows the interest older children and teens had in fitness and recreation activities.
Ages Ages
Fitness and Recreation Activities
10–13 14–17
Social activities such as:
• a teen lounge with TV and pool tables High Moderate
• teen nights with movies, food, and dancing High Moderate
Recreational activities such as:
• a stage for theater and bands Moderate Low
• hip hop, breakdancing, and dee-jaying Moderate Low
Fitness activities such as:
• yoga and kickboxing Moderate Moderate
• midnight basketball Moderate Low
Figure 11.01 Older Children and Teens’ Interest in Fitness and Recreation Activities for
Interest in Special Programming for 69

70 Interest in Special Programming for

Opportunities for a New Center for, Sports, Aquatics, Recreation and Wellness in Canton
TWELVE
CHAPTER
Requirements
for Success
Requirements for Success 71

72 Requirements for Success

Requirements for Success

To realize its maximum potential, the leaders of a new center for family recreation, sports, aquatics,
and fitness in Las Cruces should use the findings and recommendations in this report to pursue the
right strategies for addressing the specific health, fitness, and recreation needs of prospective members
of the new center. These strategies include
• understanding the challenges posed by the characteristics of the marketplace and the
demographics of the area general population
• understanding the importance of the membership component in the success of a new center
for family recreation, sports, aquatics, and fitness in Las Cruces
• accepting the challenges of including an indoor, 8-lane, cool-water exercise pool
in the facility design
• building the new center debt-free
• securing an experienced operator to maximize the membership potential
• selecting the best location by weighting all factors
• addressing the price sensitivity of prospective members
• employing a segmented marketing approach, targeting the different primary groups
of prospective members
• developing a site plan for a new community center
The Characteristics of the Marketplace

The study identified the following marketplace characteristics and the ways they pose opportunities
and challenges to a new community center in Las Cruces:
• A relatively inactive population. Only 49% of all area households are currently engaged in any
type of physical activity, which is significantly lower than the national average of 75%. This
characteristic is reflected in the findings that the majority of prospective members considered
themselves less than fit.
• Lack of fitness and health programs providers in the community. While 27% of all area
households already belong to or participate in some type of fitness, recreation, or sport club or
facility, the leading provider is New Mexico University (6% of all area households belong) and
Gold’s Gym, neither of which provides to the public complete services as a new center for family
recreation, sports, aquatics, and fitness in Las Cruces would.
• A growing population and high number of families and children. The total number of
households in the area is projected to grow 7%, which is higher than the national average of 6%.
The percentage of population under 20 is 29% in the targeted survey area in Las Cruces, compared
to the 26% for the nation. These statistics indicate the potential of an increasing demand for
recreation services for the total family.

The Importance of Membership

The findings revealed that a total of 5.2% of all area households expressed a great deal of interest in
joining a new community center as annual members if their preferences for facilities features and
prices are adhered to. This is already higher than the national average of 4.5% for comparable projects.
In additional, another 13.9% expressed a lot of interest in joining. These statistics yield the following
forecasts at each location for the number of households who may join the new community center
during the first 12-18 months:
• at Hardley Ave. and Solano Dr.: 1,980 household units with a great deal of interest
• at Valley Dr. and Picacho Ave.: 1,900 household units with a great deal of interest
• at a location off US 70: 776 household units with a great deal of interest
These numbers represent memberships sold not retained during the first 12–18 months after the new
facility is built. They do not take into account prospective households who may terminate their
memberships and therefore should not be interpreted to mean that a new community center will
definitely have a certain number of members. Nor do they take into account those households that may
use the new community center occasionally or on a program-by-program basis.
These forecasts are predicated on the new community center providing the following major features
described in the bundle that the area households expressed a great deal of interest in:
• a first-class fitness center with cardiovascular and muscle-strengthening equipment

• an indoor warm-water pool for recreational swimming, swimming lessons, and water therapy but
not for lap swimming and swim teams
• year-round showers and lockers, including separate ones for children and families
• free aerobics classes in an aerobic studio
Based on the membership rates tested, these household units translate into the following maximum
amounts of annual revenue from membership units sold at each location:
• at Hadley Ave. and Solano Dr.: $776,854*

• at Valley Dr. and Picacho Ave.: $745,431*
• at a location off US 70: $304,490*
While these revenues amounts are significant, whether it would be sufficient to support a facility of
over 40,000 square feet with additional features such as an indoor 8-lane cool-water exercise pool for
lap swimming and swim teams can’t be answered at this point. The question can only be answered
once the leaders of the new center develop a budget for the annual operation.
* Annual revenue lost due to terminating members must be deducted from this amount.

The Challenge of an Indoor 8-lane Cool-water

Exercise Pool
The findings indicated that a total of 5.2% of all area households expressed a great deal of interest in
joining a new center. Of these households, 3.7% would join at a facility design without a separate
indoor cool-water pool, compared to 0.5% that would join only if a separate indoor cool-water pool for
lap swimming and swim teams was included and the other 1.0% of households that would join only if
an indoor multipurpose gymnasium was included.
These statistics indicated that the demand for an indoor 8-lane cool-water exercise pool exists on a
secondary level, but not on a primary level. Due the major capital investment and operating costs of a
large, indoor, 8-lane, cool-water pool, typically it’s best to find a much higher demand in order to
justify the inclusion of the pool. However, given the fact that inclusion of such an indoor cool-water
exercise pool is a prerequisite for accessing the capital funding of the new facility, the new center faces
a challenge in minimizing the potential negative financial impact of such a pool. To do so, the leaders
of the new center should consider the following:
• positioning the pool as an alternative to cardiovascular exercises in addition to the traditional

role of serving lap swimmers and swim teams; it will be critical to introduce the benefits of lap
swimming to the prospective members who typically depend on Stairmasters, treadmills, and bikes
for their cardiovascular exercise
• programming a variety of new, non-traditional cool-water activities in the pool such as aqua-
walking and aqua-running, water volleyball, and scuba diving
• establishing partnerships with other community organizations that could also benefit from the
indoor cool-water exercise pool such as local public school districts, private and parochial schools,
local colleges, and area swim team leagues for practice and competition
• securing additional funding such as an endowment or annual operation subsidy to supplement the
operation from the beginning
A Debt-Free Facility
The Consultant recommends that the new center for family recreation, sports, aquatics, fitness in Las
Cruces take a cautious approach when considering debt services for building of the facility. This
recommendation is based the two following findings:
With the inclusion of an indoor 8-lane cool-water exercise pool, nearly half of the proposed facility is
allocated to the aquatics center with two indoor pools. This not only raises the amount of capital
dollars but also means higher annual operation costs. The new center will be depending on
membership and program revenues to offset the operation costs, which leaves no room for debt
services.
The findings revealed strong price-sensitivity among prospective members. Nearly half (48%) of all
prospective members would only join if lower rates were available at $26/month for an adult and
$40/month for a family. Such membership rates do not allow for any substantial debt service.
A debt-free facility allows the center to focus on serving the needs of members and providing the best
possible services. Any amount of debt service also will reduce its ability to provide community
services. The city and Swim! Las Cruces will, for example, be able to provide fewer if any
scholarships if they have to finance a portion of the building’s initial costs with membership revenue.
An Experienced Operator
These forecasts are also based on the notion that the new community center will operate primary on
annual memberships like those at YMCAs and JCCs. The membership units forecasted in the study
are only valid if the new community center provides a membership package that includes
• first-class fitness and wellness center
• the wide variety of of specific fitness and health programs and with the approaches to customer
service identified
• unlimited usage of the facility
• free services such as baby-sitting
• free basic programs such as aerobics and water aerobics
• priority registration and discounted programs prices for members
• a pricing structure that is determined by the marketplace as tested in the study
Since neither the City of Las Cruces nor Swim! Las Cruces is typically perceived as experienced in
managing a membership organization, securing an experienced operator such as a YMCA would be
critical to the success.
Location
Three locations are tested in the study. The findings provide the following forecasts at each location
for achievable membership units during the first 12-18 months:
• at Hardley Ave. and Solano Dr.: 1,980 household units with a great deal of interest
• at Valley Dr. and Picacho Ave.: 1,900 household units with a great deal of interest
• at a location Off US 70: 776 household units with a great deal of interest
While these numbers clearly indicated prospective members’ preference, geographic convenience is
just one of the many factors to consider when selecting a site. Other questions that need to be answered
include
• How much land is available at each site? (The land should include space for developing both the
indoor and outdoor fields that are ideal for a community center programming.)
• How much does the land at each site cost? How well does the cost of land fit the fundraising
capacities?
• How do potential donors respond to each site? Do they favor one site or the other?
• What is the curb appeal at each site? Can it be seen from major traffic corridors? Does each site
offer sufficient traffic and ease of entry and exit?
• What is the possibility of a partnership at each site? (Partnerships could include collaborative
relationships with schools, Parks and Recreation Departments, hospitals, churches, and other
community organizations.)
• How would population in the immediate service area of each site grow in the next five years?
The City of Las Cruces and Swim! Las Cruces should carefully evaluate the answers to these questions
as choosing the right site will be critical to the success of the new community center.
Price Sensitivity
To test the price elasticity in the marketplace, two levels of membership rates were tested and used as
the basis for the membership and revenue forecasts. Area households with a great deal of interest or a
lot of interest in joining a new center for family recreation, sports, aquatics, and fitness in Las Cruces
demonstrated strong price-sensitivity as indicated by the following findings:
• over half (52%) expressed the interest at the higher rates ($32/month for an adult and $50/month
for a family)
• the remaining 48% would join only at the lower rates ($26/month for an adult and $40/month for a
family)
These findings require the new community center to consider a pricing strategy that includes two
membership tiers:
• offer those who can and are willing to pay the higher rates a full membership with added free
classes such as yoga and swimming lessons and discounts in other sports, childcare, and recreation
programs
• provide the lower rates tested in the study as the basic membership, which include the usage of
the facility of choice but without basic amenities such as free traditional aerobic classes
This membership structure would allow the new community center to provide affordable access by
people of all incomes as well as generate all possible revenues through membership.

Primary Prospective Member Groups

The results of the study indicated prospective members of the new community center in Las Cruces
fall into several categories, each of which demands programs and services of its own. The primary
groups of prospective members include
Families. 42% of prospective members said they had children under 18 at their homes. Half of the
prospective members would join either as a family or a youth membership. Interest in activities
families can do together was high with over half of prospective members with children expressing the
interest. Designing a facility that provides a balanced, comfortable environment to both families with
children and adults without children would be critical to the success of the new community center.
Features could include
• separate family changing rooms
• separate entrances for child care and parents to drop off kids for children programs
• services and programs that enable an easy trip to the new community center for families such as
free baby-sitting and children programs that coincide with aerobic classes.
Women. More than four out of ten (44%) prospective members indicated interest in strength training
program just for women and 40% expressed interest in a women’s studio with weight management
such as Weight Watcher™. Women would be the key economic generator for the new community
center by serving the following roles:
• as the direct user of many health and fitness programs for themselves
• as the purchaser of a variety of programs and services for family members, particularly children
• as the motivator of their spouses to come to the new community center
Therefore, it would be essential for the new community center to design the facility and programs with
women in mind.
Yet-to-be-Fit. The majority of prospective members fall into this category. Among all prospective
members, 73% considered themselves not fit at all, not very fit, or somewhat fit. Research studies on
the “unfit market” have shown these individuals tend to want a more holistic approach to fitness; they
concentrate on a total healthy lifestyle rather than on just building a “hard body.” This is consistent
with the findings of the study, in which interest in total health and wellness programs was very high.
To meet the needs of this segment of its membership, the new community center will need to offer a
variety of new health and wellness programs in addition to more traditional fitness programs.

Swimmers. Prospective members’ interest in recreational swimming is high. Sixty percent (60%)
expressed interest for adults, and prospective members showed moderate to very high interest for
children of all ages. Interest in swimming lessons for kids was also moderate. In addition, prospective
members expressed high interest in Family Fun Night at the pool with rafts, movies, and food. In
addition, 41% of prospective members indicated interest in water aerobics and therapeutic exercise.
Prospective members also expressed interest in a variety of cool-water activities such as water sports
and swim team. Ten percent (10%) expressed in lap swimming and swim teams for kids received some
interested. Based on these results, a new center for family recreation, sports, aquatics, and fitness in
Las Cruces would be a haven for swimmers, particularly for those interested in warm-water activities.
Facility Development
In order to meet or exceed the maximum amount of new membership units, a new center for family
recreation, sports, aquatics, and fitness in Las Cruces should build certain facility features that
correspond with the demand among prospective members for various programs and activities.
The Consultant applies two important criteria when prioritizing the features for a new full facility:
member usage per square foot and revenue generated per square foot per capital dollar invested.
• The table on the following page summarizes the usage of various features among prospective
members.
• The table on page 81 illustrates the square footage of the features for a new center for family
recreation, sports, aquatics, and fitness in Las Cruces.

80
Features
Aerobics
Gym/ Warm- Baby- Youth/
Fitness Women’s Studio/ Cool-Water
Programs Activity Water Kids’ Gym Sitting/ Teen
Center Studio Multipurpose Pool
Center Pool Child Watch Center
Room
Adult Fitness Very High Very High High
Adult Aquatics Very High Low
Adult High Adventure Moderate
Adult Sports Low

Nutrition and Weight
Moderate
Management
Stress and Relaxation High
Physical Rehab High
Health and Screening Moderate

Programs for Children
Low
Ages 0–2
Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Low
Ages 3–5
High Moderate Very High Low Low
Ages 6–9
Moderate High Very High Low High
Ages 10–13
Low Low High Low Moderate
Ages 14–17
Adult Rating Scale Low <15% Children’s Rating Scale Low <5%
Moderate 15%–29% Moderate 5%–9%
High 30%–44% High 10%–14%
Very High 45%+ Very High 15%+
Requirements for Success

Figure 12.01 Summary of Usage for A New Center for Family Recreation, Sports, Aquatics, and Fitness in Las Cruces
Critical Indoor Features for A New Center for Family Recreation, Sports, Approximate Square
Aquatics, and Fitness in Las Cruces Footage
State-of-the-art fitness center that includes

• a cardiovascular area (1,000 square feet)
• a muscle strengthening area (1,000 square feet)
5,000
• a free weights area (1,000 square feet)
• a workout area for beginners (1,000 square feet)
• a workout area for Women (1,000 square feet)
Aerobics/multipurpose exercise studio for aerobics and yoga classes 1,500
Kids Zone (Children program center) with high ceilings, wet areas, a play area
1,500
with moonwalk
An indoor aquatic center with a warm-water pool for instructional,

recreational swimming with slides and tube and for therapeutic exercise with
17,000
low-profile entry and submerged self-seating; an indoor 8-lane cool-water
exercise pool for lap swimming and swim teams with bleachers for observing
Showers and separate changing areas and lockers for boys, girls, men,
3,000
women, and families
Sports and Activity Center with high ceilings for gymnastics, half court for
6,500
basketball, and area for teen programs and activities
Child watch/baby-sitting area for young children ages infant–5 800
Members’ lounge area with coffee, healthy snacks and tables and chairs 1,500
Subtotal 36,800
Minimal Planning factor, H/V/AC, halls, and offices (25%) 9,200
Total Indoor Space 46,000
Critical Outdoor Features
Outdoor ball fields for soccer, baseball, and softball N/A
Figure 12.02 Space Allocation of Critical Features for A New Center for Family Recreation, Sports,
Aquatics, and Fitness in Las Cruces


The Winfield Consulting Group, Inc.
Market Research & Strategic Planning for Nonprofit Organizations
1649 North Decatur Road

Atlanta, Georgia 30307
Tel: 404-888-0530
Fax: 404-881-9860
www.thewinfieldgroup.com

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A W I N F I E L D S T U D Y ™

Opportunities for a New

April 28, 2004

The Winfield Consulting Group, Inc.

Jaye Hawkins Mike Johnson

Dear Jaye and Mike:

Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions.

2 Defining the Survey Area: Where the Survey Was Conducted 9

3 Findings among Area Residents 15

5 Profile of Prospective Members 35

6 Interest in Child Care and Family Activities 41

7 Interest in Fitness and Wellness for Adults 45

8 Interest in Aquatics for Children, Teens, and Adults 51

11 Interest in Special Programming for Older Children and Teens 67

12 Strategic Questions and Answers 71

© 2004 by The Winfield Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.

The Winfield Consulting Group, Inc. 1

Figure 4.01 Membership Options 22

Figure 4.02 Formula for Calculating the Number of Household Units 23

Figure 4.06 Location Preference Among Prospective Members 27

Figure 4.07 Number of Households for Each Proposed Location 28

Figure 4.09 Table Formula for Calculating Revenue 30

Figure 4.10 Revenue Generated at Each Location 30

Figure 4.11 Additional Households With A Lot of Interest 31

Figure 4.12 Membership Projections Logic Model 32

Figure 5.03 Membership Categories Preferred by Prospective Members 38

Figure 5.05 Census Tract Locations of Prospective Members 39

Figure 6.01 Prospective Members’ Interest in Child Care Programs 42

Figure 6.02 Prospective Members’ Interest in Summer Day Camps 43

2 The Winfield Consulting Group, Inc.

Figure 7.01 Prospective Members’ Interest in Fitness Activities for Adults 47

Figure 7.04 How Prospective Members Want to be Served 50

Figure 8.04 Prospective Members’ Interest in Aquatic Programs for Adults 56

Figure 8.05 Prospective Members’ Interest in Aquatic Programs for Adults 57

The Winfield Consulting Group, Inc. 3

4 The Winfield Consulting Group, Inc.

Methodology and Scope:

Methodology and Scope 5

6 Methodology and Scope

Methodology and Scope 7

8 Methodology and Scope

Defining the Survey Area 9

10 Defining the Survey Area

Census Tract Map of the Area Targeted for the Survey

S Dona Ana 13.01

Census Tract Code Bold Numbers

State/Local Highway 185 Las Cruces

Proposed Site for the New 70

Community Center near the 6 7

Community Center near the University Park

Proposed Site for the New

Figure 2.01 Census Tract Map of the Targeted Survey Area

Demographic and Population Trends Analysis of the

Total Population 126,988 132,025 139,371

Total Population By Race

Hispanic 56% 59% 64%

Total Population By Gender

Total Population by Age

(continued on next page)

Demographic and Population Trends Analysis

General Households Data

General Income Data

Household Income Distribution Income