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ows 2
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indi
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one:afir
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rminet
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Donotus
eacomput
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0 5 1
0 1
5 20

7.
2 SYsTEM r
3yh
!AMi
CSJ
NAcT1
0N:GLOBALW ARM州G
Muc hoft hepo we ro fthes ystemd ynami cspe r s
pe ctivec ome s血. omunde rst
and-
1ngho wt hepr ocessofa ccumul a
tio ncrea tesd yna mic s,eve nbe f
orec onsider i
ng
thef eedbac ksc oupl ingt hes tocksa ndthe irflows .Toi l
lustra
te ,cons ide rg l
o bal
Wa rmlng･
Ist
hee rt
a hwa r
ml ng?I sthewa mi
r ngC a usedb ye mi ssionso fg reenho us ega ses
(GHGs )c aus edbyhuma na cti
vity?Ho wmuc hwa rmi ngi slike l
yove rthene xt
century?Wha tchang esi nc lima t
epa t
terns ,rainfall,g rowingS e ason,S to r
mi nci-
denc eands eve r
lt
y ,ands e alevelmi ghtens ue ,a
ndhowmuc hda ma gewo uldthe se
change sc aus etoh uma nitya ndt oo t
hers pe cies?The seq ue s
ti
o nsa redi ff
icultt o
answe r,andl e glt
lma tes cientifi
cde ba t
esa bo utthei mpa cto fant hropo genicGHG
emi ssi
onsc ontinue.
De s
pitet hes cient if
icunc ertai
nt y,sever alfactsa reno tind ispute .Thet empe r-
atureatthee ar t
h'ss urface-t hela nd,lowe ratmos phe re,ands ur f
acel ayeroft he
ocea n(t
hes o-c a
lledmi xedl ayer,thet op50t o1 00me t ers,wher emos ts ealifee x-
ists
)-i spr ima ril
yde termine dbyt heba lanc eoft hei nc omi ngs olarra dia t
iona nd
theo utgolngr e r
ad i
a tede nergy. Thee ar
thi sawa rmma sssurrounde dbyt hec old
ofs pacea ndl ikea lls uchma ssese mi t
ss o-C al
ledbl ac
kbo dyr adi at
ionwhos ef re-
quenc yd i
stribu t
iona ndi ntensit
yde pendso ni t
ss urfac etempe ra tu
re .Thewa rme r
t
hema ss,themo reene rgyl tradiat
e sJnc oml ngS Olare nergywa r mst hee art
h･ Asi t
wa rms,mo ree nergyl Sr adiatedba ckintos pace. Thet empe raturer i
s esunt ilthe
eart
hi sJus tWa r
me noug hf orthee ne r
gyr adi at
e dba ckt os pacet oba la ncet hei n-
coml ngs o一are nergy.
242 P
ar IT
tI o
olsf
orS
yst
ems
Thi
nki
ng

Thea mo unto fe ne r
g yr adi atedba c ki nt os pa c ede pendso nt hec ompos itio nof
thea tmos phe r e. GHGss uc ha sc arbo nd io xidea ndme tha net raps o meo ft hee n-
er gyr adi atedbyt hee a r
th, ins teado fa ll
owl ngl tt Oe scapei n tos pa c e･Thusa ni-n
cr ea sei nGHGsc a use st hee artht owa rm.Thee arthhe a tsupunt ilt hee ne rgy
e sca plngt hr o ught hea tmos phe ret os pa c er is ese no ught oa ga inba lanc et hei n-
c oml ngs o一a re ner gy.Gr ee l
lhous ega se sr ed uc et hee mi s sivlt yO ft hea tmos phe r e
eno ug ht owa r mt hes urfa ceoft hee ar th( inc lud ingt heoc ea ns )toal ife-sus taini ng
ave r ageo fa bout1 5o C( 59o F) .Wi tho utGHGsi nt hea tmos phe r
e ,theme ang lo ba l
tempe ratur ewo ul dbea bout-1 7oC( lop)a ndabl anke tofi c ewo ul dpe rpe tua l
ly
c ov ert hee ar th.
Na tura lpr oc es se sha vec a use dt hec o nc e ntra tionofc a rbond iox ide( CO 2)i n
thea tmos phe ret ofluc t
ua tes ign ificant lyov e rge o log icaltime ,ands u rfac ete mpe r-
atu re sha vef luc tua te dwi t
hi LHu ma na ctivityha sno wr e ache das ca lewhe rei tc an
afe c tthe sepr oc e sse s.Ass howni nFi gur e7- 7,t her a
teo fa nthr o po ge nicGHG
emi ss i
o nsha sbe e ng rowl nge XPO ne ntiallys inc et hebe gl nn lngO ft hei ndus t
r ial
age .At mos phe ricc onc entr ationso fCO2a ndo the rGHGsi nc l
ud ingni t
ro uso x id e
(N20) ,me tha ne( CH4),C hlor o luo
f roc arbo ns( CFCs ),hyd r of
luo roc a rbo ns( HFCs ),
pe rluo
f rina te dc arbo ns( PFCs ), ando the rsha vebe eng rowi nge xpo ne ntially, wi th
co nc e l
ltratio nso fCO2, N20, andCH4upby3 0,1 5, and1 45%, r espe cti
v ely ,sinc e
1 800. Me ang loba ls ur facet empe ratur eha sbe enr ising, ho
t ug hno ti nas tea dypa t-
tern. Co mpa redt ot hel at
e1 800S ,ave ra gegl o ba lte mpe ratur esa rea bo ut0. 5t ol oC
wa me rto da y .Byc o mpa riso n, theme a ngl o ba lte mpe ratur ed uringt hel ast icea ge ,
whe ns he etsofi ce1 000f ee tthi ckc o ve redmuc hoft heno r t
he rnhe mi sphe r e, wa s
abo ut50 cc o lde rt ha nt oda y.
De ba t
ec o nt inue sa bo utt hed yna mi cso ftheg loba lclima tes ys tem, itsre spo ns e
tof o rcingbyhuma na ctiv lt
y ,a ndt hec o ns eq ue nc e so far isei ng loba lme ant em-
pe ra ture.Thepu blicdi sc us sionha sbe enpol ariz edbywe l
l-fina nc e dc a mpa ig ns
todi s countt hes c ienc e.Ne ve r t
he le ss,c o ns e nsusi se me r ging.I n1 995,t heUN
spo ns oredl nt e rgove rnme nt alPa ne lo nCl ima teCha nge( IPCC)c o nclude dt ha t
gl oba lwa ml ngWa si nde e doc currlng,a ndt ha thuma na c tiv l
tyWa sr espons ibl e,
statlng" Theba lanc eofe vi de nc es ugge stsadi sc ernibl ehuma ni nflue nc eo nc li-
ma te"( IPCC1 996) . Thr o ug ht heUNFr a me wo rkConve nt iono nCl ima teCha nge
(UNFCCC)va riousna ti
o nsa r ene go ti
a ti
ngl imi tst oGHGe mi ssions ,thoug hc om-
pl i
a nc er ema inse lus ive.
Si mul atio nmode lso fva rioust ype sa ret hepr l
ma ryr e se archt oo ltoe x pl ore
the sei s sue s. Thee no rmo us l
yd etailedge ne ra lc ircul ati
onmode ls( GCMs )c a lcu-
latec lima tea tf ine lys pac e di nt erva lsc o ve rlngt hee nt i
res ur faceo ft hee arth, but
takeGHGe mi ssionsa se xoge no usI nput s. Att heot he re xtr eme ,s o-Ca ll
e di nte -
gr ate dc lima te -e cono mymode l
sc los es o meoft hef e edba cksa mo ngt heh uma n
ec ono my , ca rbo ne mi ssions ,a ndg loba lc li
ma tebutt r
e atthec arbo nc yc l
ea ndc li一
ma tea sgl o ba la gg rega teswi thas ma lln umbe ro fs to c
ks ･ TわmFi dda ma n( 1 99 7)
ana lyz e dma nyo ft hemos twi de lyus e dc lima te -e cono mymode ls ,id entifyi nga
numbe ro fpr o bl emsa ndi nc ons ist
e nc ie si nt he m.Fo re xa mpl e,t hewi de l
yc ited
DI CEmo de l( No rd ha us1 992a ,1 992 b)v i
o la t
e st hel awofc o nser vati onofma s sby
as sumi ngt ha tas ig ni fi
c antf r ac ti
o no fc a rbo ne mi ssionss impl yd is appe a r( No rd-
ha usa ssume dt he yf lOwi ntoas inko ut sidet hemod e lbo unda ry). Fidda ma n( 1 99 7)
 Cha
pte
r7 Dyna
micsofSt
ocksa
ndFl
ows 243

GURE7
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7

Suo !
ons,

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)｡
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Sources:Da tafromt heCar bonDi oxidelnformati
onAnal ysi
sCenter(CDIAC) ,OakRl dgeNat i
onal
Laboratory(htt
p://
cdEaC.eSd.or
nI .
gov /
trends/tr
ends.htm)lEmi ssi
ons:Keeli
ng( 1997)
.Emi ssionsi n-
cl
udecar bonfr
ombur nl
ngfossilfuelsonlyandexcl udesot herGHGsandchangesi ncar bonf lux
fr
om,e; g.,def
ores t
ation CO2 irlatmospher e:SipleSt at
10nlCeCOredatar Neft
eletal.19941 .Mauna
Loagasr ecor
derda ta( Keeli
ngetal .1997);concent r
atE
Oni nppmvconver tedtobil
li
ont onsl ntotal
atmospher e.Globalmeansur facet emper atureanomal y:Jones,Wigley,andWr lgh
t( 1997)andAnge"
(1997),resca‡
edso1960- 70,E0, 2oC.

devel
oped a modelt
hatcor
rect
sth ese and ot
herdef
ect
sin comm on cl
im at
e-
economymodel
sandl
inkedi
ttoamodeloft
heeconomyandener
gys
yst
em ･The
models
ect
orswer
ebasedont
her
elevants
cient
ifi
cknowl
edgeoft
hegl
obalcar
bon
cycl
eandcl
im at
esys
tem andcar
eful
lycal
ibrat
edt
otheavai
labl
edat
a.
244 P
art
IIT
ool
sfo
rSy
st
ems
Thi
nki
ng

De spltet hedi ffere nc esa mo ngt hemod els, alls howt hec li
ma tes ys temt opos I
s esse no r
mo usine rtia. Cha ng esi nGHGe mi ssionso nl ys lowl ys ho wu pl nC ha ng es
ingl o ba lte mpe raturea ndc li
ma te,a ndt hec ha nge spe rsistf orma nyde ca de s. To
illustr ate,Fi gure7- 8S ho wsa ne xt r
e mec o nd itionst estus ingFi dda ma n'smo de l.In
thes imul ation,a nthr opo ge nicCO2e mi ssionsf o l
lowt he irhi sto rica lpa tht hro ugh
themi d1 990S , rema inc ons tan tunt il2 000,a ndt he nf a lltoz e roa fter2 000.Su r
-
pr lSlng ly,t houg ht her a t
eofCO2e mi ssio nsf allst oz eroi nt heye a r2 00 0,me an
g loba lt empe ratur ec o ntinue st or isef ora bo utt hr eemor ede c ade s.I tt he nf a ll
s
ve rys lowl y.
Thes toc ka ndf lOws truc tur er espo ns iblef ort hec ount e rintui tiver es ultt hat
tempe ra t
ur er i
se se ve nt ho ug he mi ssio nsf a lltoz e roi ss howni nFi g ur e7- 9. The
lefts ideo ft hef igur epo r t
r ayst heg loba lc a rbo nc yc le;t her ih ts
g i depo rtrayst he
gl oba lhe atba lanc e.Bur nlngf os silfu e l
sa ddsCO2t Ot hea tmos phe r e. The rea re
se ver alo utlo
f wsf ro mt hes to cko fatmos phe ricC0 2･ Hi ghe ra tmos p he r i
cCO2c o n-
c entra tioni ncrea sest her atea twhi chCO2 i sc ons ume dbya q ua ticl ifeo rd issol ves
intot hemi xedl aye roft heoc e an. Eve ntua lly,CO2 t ake nupbyt hes ur facel a yer
di f
fus e st ode epe rwa ters ,bo tht hr oug hoc ea nc ur rent sa nda sde tritusf ro ma qua ti
c
lifes in ks .
Thet rans fero fc arbo nt ot hed ept hsi ss low, andmi xi ngbe twe ent hes ur-
fa cea nda bys salwa ter si swe ak,s oma nyc arbonc yc lemode lsdi s ag gre ga t
et he
wa t
e rc olumni nt oanumbe ro fdi stinc ts tate sa ndmod elt het ra ns fero fc a rbo n
be twe ena d jacentl aye rse xpl i
c i
tly. Fid dama n' smo de lut ili
ze s1 0l aye r s, eno ug ht o
c aptu ret hes l
o wa djus tme ntofa bys salCO2 c o nc ent rationst oc ha ng e si nCO2i n
themi xe dl ayer.
Inc re aseda tmos phe r icCO2 C On Ce ntratio na lsos timul atesupt a keo fc arbo nby
terres trialpl ants( thef luxo fCo ∑t Obi o ma ss). Ca rbo ni nbi o ma ssc anber eleas ed
ba cki ntot hea tmos phe ret hro ug hr espl rationa ndme tabo lica c t
i vltyO fa ni ma la nd
ba cter iallifea ndbyf ire( na tura landhu ma n- c aus ed) ･Asbi o ma ssd ec ays , t
hes to ck
ofc a rbo ns toredi ns oili nc re ases( thefluxo fc arbo nf rombi oma sst os oilhumus ).
Thec a rboni nhumusc a nbet ake nupd i
re ctlyi nt obi oma ssa spl a ntsg ro wo rc an
ber e le asedi ntot hea tmos p he ret hroug hde c ay .
No tet hatthemod e lr epr esent sthei nf
lo wofCO2 t Ot hea tmos phe ref romt he
bur ningOff ossi
lf ue lsa sflOwi ngf roma nu nlimi te ds our cewhe ni nf ac tthef low
dr awsdownt hec aIもO ns e que ste r
edi ng lo ba ls toc kso ff ossilf ue ls . Simi l
a rly, 血e
mode ldoe snotc apt uret hec onve r
siono fc arboni nhumuso rt hea bys sall aye rof
theoc eani nt one ws toc kso ffos silfu els. Al tho ught hed yna mi c so fgl o ba lwa rm-
1ngWi llpl ayo utove rt hene xts e veralc entu ries, thist imeho r i
z o ni ss os ho rtr ela-
tivet ot hemi lli
onsofye a rsr eq uiredt of ormo il,ga s,a ndc oa ltha tthe sec ar bon
lowsc
f a nbes afelyi gno red.
Ther ights ideofFi gur e7- 9s howst hes t
oc ka ndf lows truc tur ef o rt
hehe at
ba lanc eoft hee a rth'ss ur fa ce,a t
mos phe re ,a ndoc e ans .Thes u rfac ea nda tmos -
phe re , i
nc ludingt hes u rfa cel aye ro ft heoc ean,a bs orbi nco ml ngS O la re ne rgya nd
radia tehe atba cki nt os pa ce . He atisa ls ot rans ferre dbe twe e nt hes u rfa cel ay era nd
thede e poc ean, t
ho ugha ts lo wr ates.Th er ateo fhe attra nsfe rbe twe e ns ur fa cea nd
de epoc eande pe ndsont het empe ratur edi ffe rent ialbe twe ent hed ife rentl aye r s
,
cre at
l ngt wone ga tivef e ed ba ckswh ichs e ekt oe qui libr atet het empe ra t
u reso ft he
dife r entl a yers.Si mi lar ly,ne tr adiativef orc ingi st hedi fe re nc ebe twe ent hei n-
Co ml ngS Ola rene rgya ndt hee ne rgyr adi atedf romt hewa rme a rthba c ki n t
os pa c e
.
 Cha
ptr7
e Dy
nami
cso
fSt
ock
san
dFl
ows 245

suos
FIGURE7- 8

20^JS
Gl obaltemper a-

(
Lt
s !
!u U eO3
tureriseswel laft
er
GHGemi ssi
ons

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6OJ
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O≡
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n2000.Mean

d o
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I I
u
sur f
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turecon tinuesto
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sef orr oughly 2025 2050
20year s･

■
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-
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1975 2000 2025 2050

(
pu
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8
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1950 2000 2025 2050

ce.
Sour I
Fid
dama
n(1997) .

Thewa r mert hesur f

ace,themor eene r
gyl Sr a
di at
e dbackintos pac
e,C ooli
ngt he
earthandf ormlnga notherne ga t
ivel oop.Thec oncentrat
ionofC0 2 a ndot her
GHGsi ncreasesne tradia
tiveforcingbyr e
d ucingt herateatwhic henergylSradi -

atedbacki ntospa ceforanygl VenS urfacetempe r at

ure.
Thedi agram( thoughnott hef ullmode l)deliberatel
yo mitsma nya ddi
tional
feedbacksa ffec
tingt heratesofc ar
bonf low a ndhe atexchangea swe llasc ou-
pli
ngst oot herbiogeoc hemi ca
lc ycles.Knowl edgeoft hena tureands tr
engthof
thema nyf e e
dba cksc ouplingc l
ima te,carbonc ycle,andhuma nac t
ivit
yl SStil
l
evolvi
ng. Someoft hesefee dbacksarene gativea ndma yoffse
tGHGe missi
onso r
246 Pa
rtI
I Tわol
sfo
rSys
tem sThi
nki
ng

FI
GURE7-
9 St
ockandf
lowdi
agr
amofgt
obal
car
boncycl
eandheatba一
ance
Burnl
ngf ossil
fuelsaddsCO2t Ot heatmosphere,increasmgnetr adiati
veforclngunt
ilt
hetemperatur
e
oftherand,oceansur face,andat mospherer i
sesenought obalancereradiati
onofenergyint
ospace
wit
hincoml nglnSOlati
on, Thediagr amdel
iberat
elyomi tsmanyoft hefeedback s,bot
hposit
iveand
negati
ve,amongt hecar bonstock sandglobalmeant emperatur
e.Flowswi tharrowheadsatbot
hends
canbeposi ti
veornegat ive(e.
g. ,NetRadiati
veFor cingcanbeani nfl
owofheatt otheatmosphereor
anoutfl
ow) .Thesol i
darrowheadi ndi
cat
estheposi ti
vedirect
ionoftwo- wayflows,

Sour Adap
ce: tedf
romFi
ddaman(
1997).
Ch
apt
er7 Dy
nami
cso
fSt
ock
san
dFl
ows 2
47

wa rml ng･ The sei nc l

udei nc re ase dc a rbo nupt akebybi oma ss,s timul a tedbyhi ghe r
CO2 c onc entr ations ,a ndi nc re ase dc loudc ove rf rom e nha nce de va por ation,r e
-
le
f ctlngmor ei nc oml ngS unlightt os pa ce. Pa r t
ic ulatea eros olsf romf os silf ue lc on
-

sumpt i on( airpol lut i

ona nds mog)a ls oi nc rea ser e le
f c t
ionofi nc omi ngs ol a
r
radia tiona ndma ya ccountf ort hes lowe rt ha ne xpe ctedr a t
eoft e mpe ratur eris eo b-
serve di nt heNo rther nHe mi s phe re.
Amongt hepos i
tivef eed ba cksdr ivingc lima t
ec ha ngea r ec ha nge si ns ur face
a l
be do: Wa rml ngr educ est hewi nt ers nowc ove ra nds hr inkst hehi ghl yr ele
f ctive
pol ari c ec a ps ,thusi nc r
e asinghe a ta bs orpt lOna ndl ea dingt of u rthe rme lting, less
snowc ove r,a nds tillg reatera bs or ptlOn･Sc ientistse xpe c tthi spos itivel oo pwi l
l
c a
us emuc hgr eaterwa r
ml nga tthepol e st ha ni nt het ropl CSa ndmor ewa ml ngl n
wi nte rt hans umme r･Tha wi ngofpe rma fros tma yr ele asel a rgequa nt itie sof
me tha nef romd e cayofo rga ni cma t
te r,inc r eas l
ngt hec onc ent rationofGHGsa nd
leadi ngt of ur the rwa rmi ngl na not he rpos i
tivel oop.I nc r
ea se de va por atio nf rom
wa rme rl anda nds ur facewa te rsma ybes e lf-reinfor c lngS inc ewa terva po ri sa
powe rf ulGHG･ Atpr ese nti ti snotknownwhe thert hene ga tiveo rpos itivef e ed-
bac ksdomi na tet hedyna mi c sno rhowt hedo mi na nc eo fthel oopsmi ghtc ha ngea s
var i
ousnonl i
ne aritiesc omei ntopl a y. Howe ve r,Goul de ne ta l.( 1998)s tudi edt he
nor t
he r nbor e alf ores tofCa na daa ndf oundt ha twa rmi ngha sr esul tedi nne t ca rbon
luxt
f ot hea tmos phe reasC0 2r elea sedf romde ca yoft ha we dbi oma s sout we ighe d
incre as edca rbo nupt akebypl ant s. Fo rt ha tbi ome,a tl e ast,thepos itivef ee dba c ks
appe a rt odomi na tethene gativel oo pofi nc re as edbi ot ica c t
ivi ty.
Thei mpa c tofwa rml ngOnS e al eve lma ya lsobed rive nbypos itivef e ed ba ck.
ThehugeWe st Ant ar cti
cI c eShe et( WAI S)c ons istsofaf lOa t i
ngt onguea tta che d
toal arge ric emas ss ohe avyl tr e stsOnbe droc kbe l
ows e ale ve l. TheWAI Shol ds
alotofwa ter :" Ifitme lteda wa yl nagr ee nhous e-wa rme dwor l
d, i
twoul dr aisea l
l
thewor ld' soc eansby5me ters "( 拡e rr1 998, p.1 7). Ifwa rme rs ea sc a us et heWAI S
tothi n,i twi llr isef ar t
he rof ft hes e abe d,e xpos lngmor eOft hei cet ome ltinga nd
acc eler atingt hi nni ngl napos itivel oop. Ast hee dget hins ,thehi ghe ri c eont he
Ant arc ticl andma ssflowsf ast eri ntot hes ea , whe reiti se x pos e dt ot hewa rme rwa -
ters,f ur the rs pe e dingme ltingi na not he rpos itivef e ed ba ck.Ri gnot( 1 998)not es
thatagl a cierwi thH[ t]hisc onf i
gur ationi st he or eticallyuns tabl ebe ca us ear e treat
ofi t
sgr oundi ngl ine( whe ret hegl ac i
e rs ta rtst ofloa t
)woul dbes e lf-pe rpe t
ua t
ing
andi rre ve rs i
bl e "a nds howst ha tt heg roundi ngl ineoft hePi neI s landgl ac ierf ee d-
1ngt h eWAI Si sr etreatinga t1. 2±0. 3ki lome terspe rye ar.I c ec or e ss howt ha t
with i
nt hepa s tl ･3mi lli
onye a rs,‖ atat imepe rha psnotmuc hwa rme rt ha nt oda y,
theWAI Swa s teda wa yt oas cra pa ndf loode dt hewor ld'sc oa sts"( Ke rr1 998,
p･1 7 )II cec or eda taf r
om Gr ee nla nda lsos ugges tt hepa le oc lima ter epe atedl y
wa rme da ndc ool ed,Wi thc or re spondl ngC ha nge sins nowf a l
l ,ove rt imes c alesof
onlyd e c ades ･The s er apidc ha ngess ugge stpos it
ivef e edba c ksma yha vedomi -
natedc lima tedy nami csinge ologi c allyr e ce ntt imes .
It wi llt akey earsofr ese arc ht odi scove ra llt hef ee dba ckst ha tdr ivet hec lima te
andd e ter mi net hel i
ke lye ffe ctsofgr ee nhous ewa rml ng.Ne ve rhe
t l es s,thes toc k
andlfO ws truc tureoft hegl oba lc arbonc yc lea ndhe a tbudge te xpl ainss omeba sic
feature soft hed yna mi cs .Thes toc ka ndf lOws truc tures howshowi ti spos sibl ef or
2
48 P
art
IIT
ool
sfo
rSy
st
ems
Thi
nki
ng

theg loba lt empe ra tu ret or isee ve na fte rhu ma nGHGe mi s sionsf allt oz ero. Whe n
e mi ssionsf alltoz e rot hei nflo wst ot hes to ckofa tmos phe ricc a rbo nf allbe lowt he
out nows .The re f
o ret hes to ckofCO2i nt hea tmos phe repe aksa ndbe gi nst of ll
a .
Thec onc e ntratio no fC0 21 nt hea tmos phe ref allso nlys lowl y, ho we ver｡Fi rst ,血e
upt akeo fc arbonbybi oma ssf allsa st hec o nc entra ti
o no fCO2i nt hea tmos phe re
de cline s, whi leCO2c o ntinue st oflO wi ntot hea irf r
o mbur nlnga ndde ca yo fbi 0-
ma ssa ndh umuss to cks . Se cond, a sa tmos phe ricCO2f alls ,hef
t luxo fc arbo nf ro m
thea i
rt ot hemi xe dl a ye ro ft heo ce anf a ll
s ,whi let heflu xo fc arbo nf romt heoc ea n
tot hea i
ri nc rea ses ･The sec o mpe ns ato ryr e spo ns ess lowt hede clin eo fa tmos phe ric
CO2SO t ha t5 0y e ar sa fterh uma ne mi s sio nss topc ompl ete ly, thec onc ent rationo f
C0 2i nt hemo de la tmos phe reha sf a llenba c ko nl yt oi ts1 990l e ve l
.
Thehe atc ont e nto ft hes ur fac el a ye rr isesa sl onga si nc oml ngr adia tione x-
ce edst hehe atr adi a t
e dba ckt os pa c eo rt r ans ferre dt ot hede epoc ean.Though
fallinga fte rtheye ar2000,g loba la tmos phe ricCO2C O nC ent ratio nsr e ma inhi gh
enoug ht or e duc et hee ne r gyr ad iat edba c kt os pa cebe lowi nc oml ngl nS Ol ation.
De cl
ini nga tmos p he ricCO2a fter2000me a nsg loba lme a nt e mpe ratur eg rowsa ta
d i
mi ni shingr ate . Bya bo ut203 0t hes ur fa c eha swa rme de no ug ha ndt hec o nc en-
trationofCO2i nt hea tmos phe reha sf alle ne noug hf o ri ns ola tiont obeba la nc e d
aga inbyt hee ar t
h' sbl ac k-bodyr adi a t
i ona ndt her a t
eo fhe a tt rans fertot hede ep
oc ean. No tet ha tgl oba lme ant e mpe ratur ef allso nl ys lowl ya f t
e r203 0, Fi rst,t he
slow de clineo fGHGc o nc e ntratio nsa fte r2000s l
o wst hei nc rea sei nr adi ative
emi ss ivity. Se co nd, du ringt hewa rme stde c ade swhe nt hes ur fa cet empe r aturee x-
ce ede dt het e mpe r atu reoft hed eepo ce an, he atflowe df romt hes urfa cel aye rt othe
d eep. Ast hes ur f
a c el aye rc oo ls, he a ts tor edi nt hede e poc e annowf lo wsba c kt o
thes ur fac e, slowi nga tmos phe ricc oo ling.
Thes toc ka ndf lO ws tru ctur eoft hec ar bo nc yc lea ndhe at ba lanc ee xpl ainst he
see ml ng lypa rado xi c alr es ultt ha tte mpe ra ture sc anr isee ve nwh ene mi ss i
o nsf all.
The rea res e vera ll ess ons . Fir st,gl oba lwa r mi ngC a nno tbepr ov eno rd isprove nby
co rrelatlnge mi ssionsa ndt e mpe ra tur e:t hedyna mi csa ret ooc ompl exf ors uc h
na i
vec o mmo ns ens ea ppr oa che s. Se c ond, thef ullimpa cto fpa ste mi ssi
onsha snot
ye tbe eno bs erve d. Theoc e ansa ndt erre str ialc arbons toc ksha vebe ena bs o rbi ng
carbo no uto ft hea tmos phe rea thi ghe rr a tes ,Suppr ess l
ngt her isei na tmos phe r ic
CO2C OnC e ntratio ns .Anda st he ses t oc ksi nc re ase, theira bs orpt lOnC apaC ltyd imi n-
ishe s.Thei mpa ctoff utur ee mi ssionsona tmos phe ricCO2ma yWe l
l bel arg ert ha n
thato bs e rve di nt hepa st.Thi rd,t hei ne rtiao ft hes ystemme a nsf urtherwa rml ng
andc lima tec ha ngea r ea lre ad yunde rwa y . Ac tiont oha ltwa rml ngmus tbet ake n
de cad esbe forewec a nkno wwha tt hec o ns e que nc e so fwa rmi ngWi l
l bea ndbe for e
scient if
icc ertaint ya bo utt hed yna mi c so ft hegl oba lc lima tec a nbega i
ne d.
Mos timpo rtant , tnes toc ka ndF lowS tr uc tureO ftheg lob a lC lima teme ansS ta -
bilizlnge mi ssionsne arc ur re ntr at eswi llnots tabilizet hec lima t
e.Fi gur e7- 10
showsas imul ationi nwhi che mi ssio nsa res tabilize di n1 995. Thec on cent rationo f
atmos phe ricCO2C On tinue st or ise, mo r et ha nd ou bl i
ngby23 00. Gl o balme ans ur -
facet e mpe raturer ise sbya bo ut3o C. Ma nyi ndus triali
z edna tionsa g reeda ttheRi o
conf ere nc eont hee nvi ronme ntt os tabi liz et he irGHGe mi s sionsa t1 990l e ve ls,
and38i nd us tri
a li
z e dna tionsa gree da tt he1 997Kyo toc o n fere nc eo ft heUNFCCC
tor ed uc ee mi s sionsby201 2t oa bo ut95% of1 99 0r ate s. Bu tt heUSSe na tede -
claredt het re at
yd ea do na r riva l.Impl eme nt at i
o nr e ma inse lus ive; slgnlngat re aty
 Ch
apt
er7 Dy
nami
cso
fSt
ock
san
dFl
ows 249

FIGURE7 -10

u
so

(
J
Stabi
li
zlngGHG

!sE
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s
uu o3 0Eu亀odoJLJtuV
emissionsdoes

o su 13!
notstabi一
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zethe

Z
cl
imate.

Jl
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Stabili
zlngGHG
emissionsat1 995
1
evelsc ausesaト
mos pher icCO2
concen trati
onst o
doubleby2300, 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300
whHemeangl obal
surf
ac et emper-a
tur
ei ncreases
about3o C.Ev en
(
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undert hepr o-
posedKy ot
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9
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l

substan ti
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thene xts evera一
decades.
1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300
pu o しぎ o2
^L
(
a3

3
n
eL
t
2i
u OuV aJnlt2
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1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300

ce:F
Sour I
-dd
ama
n(1997) .

isonet hing,actuallyr educ inge mis s

ionsa not her.Mos ttr
oubl i
ng,thee missi
onsof
rapidlyde veloplngna tionss ucha sChi nac ont i
nuet ogr ow athighe xpone nt
ial
rates.TheUSEne rg ylnf orma tionAdmi nist
rationf or
e c a
stin1 997thatGHGe mis-
sionsf rom deve l
o pingna tionswo uldne a
rlydoubl eby201 5,accountlngforthe
largema j
ori
tyoft hewor ldt otal(Ma l
a kofr1 997) .
Whi l
edife rentc li
ma t
emode l
sdi fe rint he i
rde tail
sa ndi nthei
re sti
ma t
esof
ut
f urewa rming, allagre etha tstabi
lizinge mi ssionsne arc urre
ntlevelswi l
lnotsta-
biliz
et hec l
ima t
e･ Mi tiga t
ingt her i
skofc lima techa ngef rom globalwa rmlngr e -

qulreSaS ubsta
ntia ldeclinei nt herateo fGHGe mi ssi
ons ･
Thewor ldhasye tt
of a
ce
upt othei nexorabl elogicOft hes t
ocksa ndflowsoft hegl obalcl
ima tesyste
m.
250 Pa
r IT
tI o
olsf
orS
yst
ems
Thi
nki
ng

7.
3 SYsTEM DYNAM!
CSI
NAcT1
0N:Tt
lEW ARON DRUGS
Int he1 98 0st heus eofc oc a inei nc rea se ddr ama ti
c ally.Asc oc aines pre a d,c rime,
viole nc e ,a ndhe althpr obl e msgr e we xpone ntial l
y. TheUni tedSt atesde clareda
wa rondr ugs .Ane wf e de rla
a ge nc y,t heWhi teHo useOfi ceofNa ti ona lDr ug
Cont r oIPol ic y( ONDCP) ,he a de dbyt heH drugc z ar,"wa sa ppoi nt edt oove r s
e e也e
ca mpa lgn. Pe na lti
e sfo rpos ses s i
o n,s a lea ndus eofd r
ugswe res tiffene d･Bi ll
ions
we res pe ntt oi nc r
e asee nf or ce me nt,e s pe cia ll
yt or educ et henowofc oc ainei nt o
theUS,e s
tima te dbyt heONDCPt obe550t o660me t
rict onsi n1 98 9｡ Thef ocus
oft hewa rondr ugswa spr ima rilyt hes uppl ys ide:s lashingt hepr oduc ti onofco-
ca i
ne,c ho ki ngof fsmuggl ingI nt ot heUS,a nds ti
f feningpe na l
tiesf orpos session
ands ale, Ont hede ma nds ide, kidswe ret ol dt o" J usts ayNO. H
Di di two rk?I nthel a te1 980st heda tatol dac o nflictings tory. Somedr ugda ta
showe di mpr ove me nt.Thr ought heH Na tiona lHous ehol dSur ve yH( NHS)a nd
HHl ghSc hoo lSe niorSur ve yH( HSSS) ,thegove rnme nt reg ula r
l ya skspe opl ea bout
theirus eo fa l
c ohola nddr ugs .Tba ss es st rendsi ni nc ide nc ea ndpr eva l enc e,也e
surve ysa s
kwhe the rpe opl eha vee verus edc oc aine, whe the rthe y' veus e di ti nthe
lastye ar,a ndwhe the r血e y'veus e di ti nt hel astmont h･Fi gur e7- lls howsNHS
da t
af ort he虫. a ctionofpe opl er es pondi ngt hatt he yha veus e dc oc a i
nei nt hepas t
mont h. Ac c ordi ngt ot hes ur ve ys ,c oc a ineus ewa sf all
ings ha r
pl y,wi thl esst ha n
1 % oft hepo pul ationr epo rtlngpa stmont hc oc aineus ei n1 990,downf r om 3% i n
1985. Thedr opl nr epo rtedus ec oi nci de dwi thas ha rpl nC rea S
ei nt hes e iz urer ate,
tomor et ha n75me t
rict onspe rye ar( Fi gur e7- 11). Thewa rondr ugss e eme dt obe
wo rki ng., citingt he seda ta, t
hea dmi nis tra t
ionc a l
le df ore ve nmo remone yt of i
ni sh
thej ob.
Howe ve r,ot he rindi c ator ss howe dt hepr obl e mwa sge t
tlngWOr Se･ Ar restsf or
pos ses siona nds aleofc oc aine,t henumbe rofe me rgenc yr oom vi sitsa s soc i
ate d
wi t
hc oc a i
ne, andt henumbe rofc oc aine -relatedde athsa lls howe de xpone ntiali
-n
crea ses ,whi let hepur ltyOfc oca ineont hes tre etwa sg rowl nga ndt hes tre etpr l
C e
wa sf a lling( Fi gur e7- ll ).Byt hes eme as ur es,c oc a i
neus ewa sups ha rplya nd
ava i
la bil i
tywa sg rowl ng. Cr iti
cs ,C itlngt hef ailur eofpr ohi bi t
ioni nt he1 920sa nd
1930S ,a rgue dt ha tinte rdictionc oul dne ve rwor ka ndc ll
a e df ors tronge rde ma nd-
sideme a sur es( Ma cCo una ndRe ute r1 997r eview血ede bate ).Ot he rsa rgue dt ha t
de crimi na liz ationwoul de limi natet hec rimepr ob lemc aus edbyus eofi ll
ega l
drugsa nda llowt hegove rnme ntt or egul a tepur lt
yt Opr eve nta c cide ntalove rdos es･
Muc hoft hede ba t
ef oc us edonwhi c hda tas erieswe rer i
ghta ndwhi chwe re
wr ong.Thes t
a ke swe rehi gh:Bes idest hei ssuesofpubl ichea ltha nds a fety,the
drugwa rwa spr ose cute da ndda tas er ieswe rec olle ct
e dbya na lpha be ts oupof
feder ala nds t
atea genc ies ,inc ltldingt heFBI ,DEA, SAMHSA, NI J,NI DA, DEPB,
ONDCP,a nd CI A･2Ea c ha r gue df ort hepr lma Cya ndc orre ctnes sofi t sda taa nd

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dr ug- enf orceme ntpr ogr amsa st he ys truggl edt oga lnal a rgers ha reofmor etha n
$1 0bi llio npe rye arde vot e dt ot hewa rondr ugs.
Suppor t
er soft hei nte rdi ctions trategya rgue dt ha tt hes ur ve yda tadi rec tly
me asur edwha tc ount s -t heus eofdr ugs -whi leot he ri ndi ca torswe rei ndi r
e ct.
The ya rg uedt ha trisinga rre str a t
esa nds eizur esrele
f ctedgr ea t
e re nfor ceme nt ,not
g rea t
e rdr ugus e,andwe ret he r eforeas lgnOfs uc cess ;fa llingpr ices , r
lSlngPur ity,
andt hes urgei nme dica le me rge nc iesa ndde athss impl yr e le
f c te dt hes ubs titution
ofmo r epot entc rac kf ort hel es spur epowde rfor m. Cr itic sofi nte rdi c
tiona ndt he
sur ve yda taa rgue dt ha td rugus e rsa relessl i
ke lytha nl aw- abi dingc itizenst obes e-
lec tedf ororpa r
ticipa tei nt hes urve ys･ Ma nyc oca i
neus er sa rel ike lyt ode nyt he y
us edrugswhe nt hegove rnme nta sks .De fende rsoft hes ur ve yspoi nt edt ot hes o-
phi stic ate ds ampl i
ngme thodst he yus edt oa ccountf orpos sibl eunde rrepr es ent a-
tionofc er t
ains ubpopul ations ･ The ygua rant eeda nonyml tyt OS ur ve yr e sponde nt s
andc laime dt hatwhi leH[ t]heva lueofs el
f-repo rtsobvi ous lyde pe ndsont hehon-
es tya ndme mor yofs ampl e dr esponde nts[,r ]esearchha ss uppor tedt heva lidityof
se lf-r
e po rtda tains imi la rc ont e xts "(SAMHSA1 99 4) .
Int hel ate1 98 0S血eNa tiona ll nstit
uteofJ us t
icec ommi ssione das tudyt or e-
sol vet hea ppa rentpa ra doxofde c l
iningmea s
ure sofc oc a i
neus ea ndr i
s l
ngC On-
sumpt lOn,C rime,a rr ests,a ndde aths.Aspa r
toft hes tudy,as ys te m dyna mi c s
mode lwa sde ve lope dt oi nt egr a t
et hede ma nda nds uppl ys ide soft hema rke t
(Home r1 993,1 997) .Thef ullmode lc onsis t
edofs e ve ra lhundr ede qua tionsa nd
inc lude dade tai
le dr epr es ent at i
onoft hes toc ka ndflows truc tur eofus ers ,a l
ong
wi ht
t hef e edba c
ksa mo ngdi fe re ntma rketa ctors,thema r ke t,a ndt hec rimi na ljus -
tices ys tem.
Fi gur e71 12S howsas impl ifiedr e present at
ionoft hes toc ka ndf lows truc tur e
fort hedi fe rentc a
te gor iesofdr ugus ersr epresent edi nt hemode l. TheNHSc on-
side rsa llpe rsonsa ge1 2a ndove rtobepot entialdr ugus er s･Aspe opl ei nt hi sa ge
gr oupf ir stex perime ntwi thc oc ainet heymovef romt he" ne ve rus ed"popul ation
tot hes toc ko fa c ti
vec as ua lus ers( thos ewhoha veus e dc oc ainei nt hepa stmont h
buta renota ddi cted). Somec a sua lus ersf i
ndt he yc annotc ont rolt he irc oc ainec on-
sumpt lOna ndbe comec ompul s iveus ers.Ac tiveus ers ,bo thc a sua la ndc ompul sive,
ca ns to p,be comi ng" t
r ans itiona lus ers"( t
hos ewhoha veus e dc oc ainei nt hepas t
ye ar, butno ti nthepa stmont h) ,Tr ans it
iona lus ersca nr ela ps e,be c omi nga ctive
us ersa ga in.Af teraye a rwi t
houta nyc oca ineus e, r
t ans i
tiona lus er sa rer ec lassified
ase x-us e rs･Somee x-us er sr el aps e,be comi nga ctiveus e rsa ga in･Ot he rsqul tpe r-
ma nent ly.The rea re,ofc our s e,de athr atesoutofea c hs toc k,bot hf rom dr ug-
relate dc aus esa nda llot he rs our ces｡
Thef ullmode lha samor ec ompl exs tocka ndf low s t
ruc tur et ha ns hown
inFi gur e7- 1 2,e xpl icitlydi stingui shingbe twe enc as ua la ndc ompul sivet rans i-
ti
ona la nde x-us ersa ndbe t
we enus e
rsofpowde ra ndc r ac kc oc a ine.Themode l
acc ount edf ore s
c alationf romc asua ltoc ompul siveus ea ndf ors wi tc hingbe twe en
powde ra ndc rac k.Thi sdi sa ggr e ga t
ionwa sne ces sarybe caus et hepr oba bi li
tie s
ofmovi ngf rom ones tatet oa not he rde pe ndont hef or ma ndi nt ens l
tyOfus e.
Compul siveus ersa rel es sl i
ke lyt oqui tandmor elike lyt or e l
a ps e, andc ra ckus er s
aremo rel i
ke lyt oes cal atef r om c asua ltoc ompul siveus ea nds uf ferhi ghe rr e -
laps er a tes.
 Ch
apt
er7 Dy
naic
m so
fSt
ock
san
dFl
ows 253

GURE7
Fl -
12
Cocai
neuse:
st
ocksandf一
ows

Sour
c Ad
e: a
pte
dfr
omHo
mer
(1993)
.

Not et ha tthec atego r

iesofus einthemode lcanbedi rectlyc o mpa r
edt othos e
usedi nt hes ur
ve ys .Thet otalnumbe rofa c t
iveus e r
s, bothc asua landc ompul sive,
forbot hpowde ra ndc rack, i
sthenumbe rofpe oplewhoha vea ctua l
lyus edc ocaine
inthepa stmont h. Thes umoft hea cti
veus ersa ndt het ra
ns it
iona lusersist hetotal
numbe rwhoa ctua l
lyus edc oc a
ineint hepa styea r.Finall
y, thes umofa ctive,tran-
sit
iona l,ande x-us ersisthet otalnumbe rwhoha vee ve ruse dc oc ai
ne.
Wha ta rethede termina ntsoftheinitia
tionr ate-wha tcause spe opletous ec o-
cainef ort hef i
r s
tt ime?St udi esshowmos tpe oplebe ginus ingdr ugsthroughpe er
inf
lue nc e-byo bs ervlngOt hersus l
ngdr ugsa ndt hrought he i
rme mbe rs
hipi ns o-
cialne twor ksi nwhi c hot hersus edr ugs( tha tis,byha ngingwi tht hewr ong
crowd) ･ Asmor epe opl estartus i
ngc ocaine,t hes ocialne t
wo rksofus er
se xpa nd,
bringingS tillmo r enonus ersintoc ontactwi ththedr ug,i napos i
tivef eedba ck
proces sa nalogo ust ot hes preadofa ni nfectiousdi sease( chapte r9)･Thes tre
ngt h
ofthes ocile
a xpos ur efeedba ckde pendsont hes oc i
a lauraoft hedr ug:howc hic
cocainei spe rceive dtobe( isthisthed rugt heopi nionl eade rs,thebe a
ut
if ulpe o-
ple,areus ingt hisye a r?
).Thepos it
ivef eedba cka lsode pendso nwhe therc urrent
254 P
rt
a IT
I o
ols
forS
yst
emsT
hin
kin
g

a ndpot e ntialus er svi e wt hedr uga sbe nig n-i sl tPe r ce ive dtoo ffe ragoodhi gh
wi ho
t utne ga tivee fe c t
ss uc ha sa ddi ctio n, ba dt ripso rt her isko fs udde nd ea th?
Pr iceha sac o mpa rative lymode s
te f fect, atle asti nhi ghe rs ocioe co no mi cg rou ps,
be c ausehi h pr
g ic ea nds ca rcltyC Onf ers o cials tatuso nt hos ewhoc anpr o videt he
d rugf わrf riendsa tpa r t
ie so ri nt hewo rkpl ace.I nthemi d1 970S ,a st hec oca ine
e pide mi cbe ga n,c oc ainewa svi e we da sabe nig n,no na ddi cti
ved rugpos l
ngl it
tle
he a l
hr
t isk.I tbe ca met hei n-g rou pd rugo fc ho icea mongc er t
ainpr of es s
io nal
e li
te s･Thee nte rtainme nti nd us tryr einf わr cedt hec hi ci ma geoft hedr ug･ Al lthe se
se lf-reinfo rcingpr oc es se sa r ec aptur e dbyt heWo rdofMout hl oo pRli nFi g-
u re7- 13.
Thed yna mi c so ft hema rke tr ein fo rce dt heg rowt hoft hee pide mi c. Asc o n-
sumpt ioni nc re ase d,t hes uppl ys ideo ft hema rke tbe ca memuc hmo ree fi cient.
Pr icede cli
ne da ndpu rltyl nC re aSe d. Theg rowl ngs caleoft hei nd us t
r yc re a t
e dhuge
inc entive sf ort ec hno l og l
C ala ndo rga niz ationa lin nova tio nbypr od uc er sa nds mug-
g lers･ Thei ntroduc tionofc rac kc oc ainei n1 98lwa st hemos ti mpo r tant ,bu tf ar
fro mt heo nly ,te chni c al inno va tio ni nt hema rke tAsi nma nyl egl t
lma tei nd ustrie s
,
g rowt hl e dt opr od uc tio na nde spe c iallyd ist
ribut io ns c a l
ee conomi es .Ho rizo ntal
andve rticalma r ke ti nte gra tiont hroug ht hec oc ainec arte lscutc os tsa ndl edt o
mo rec o nsiste ntpr od uc tq ua l i
ty .Gr owl nge xpe rienc el e dt oas ubs t antia lle arnlng
cu rvea sha rve stlng,Pr oduc tio n,s muggl i
ng,di stribut io n,a ndmone yl a unde ring
ope r
a ti
o nswe rei mpr ove d･ The ses c alea ndl earnl nge ffe ctsc reate da ddi tio na lpos -
itivef ee dba cksl ea dingt owi dera va i
l ability,g rea terpu rly,
t andl owe rpr lCe S,ma k-
ingc oc ainea 耽) r da blea nda c ces siblet oa ll(loo pR2) ･
Asl onga spe o plepe rc eive dt hehe a lt
ha ndl ega lr i
s ksofc oc ainet obes ma ll
,
the sepos iti
v ef ee d ba cksdomi na te dt hes ystem. Co caineus emus hroo me d, sprea d-
1ngg ra dua l
ly血. o mmi ddl ea ndu ppe ri nc o me ,t rend- c ons c iouspo pul a tionsont he
ea sta ndwe stc oa s tstoe ve rys oc iala ndi nc omel e veli ne ve r
ys ta t
eoft hec ou ntry.
Whyt he nd idt heda tas hows uc hal a rged r opl nt hei nc i
de nc eofc ur rentc o-
ca ineus ea fter1 98 5?Su ppo rter soft hei nterd ictions t
r ate gyc re ditedt hea d mi nis-
tration' ssu ppl y- sidepo licy. The ya rgue dt ha te nha nc e de nf orceme nti nc re asedt he
frac t
io no fc oc aines e ized,c ut t
ingt hea va ilabi l
ityo ft hedr ug( theba la nc ingSu p-
plyDi sruptio nl oo pB1 )a ndt ha ta gg re ssive l
ya rre sti
nga ndi nca rce ratingpus he rs
andus ershe lpsc lea nupt heSt ree ts( t
heba lanc ingl oo pB2) ･Bo tht he s ene ga t
ive
loo ps ,itwa sa rg ue d, c utd rugus e ,a sind icatedbyt hes u rve yda ta.
Howe ver ,s t
oc ka ndf low s truc tur ef o rd ugus
r e rss howe dt ha tthes ur ve yda ta
coul dnotbec or rec ta ndwe res ubs tant iallyunde rsta tingt hepr eva lenc eo fd ug
r
us e･Ina dd i
tio nt oa s
ki nga bou tpa stmo nthus e, theNHSa sksr espo nd e nt sift he y
ha veus edc o ca inei nt hepa stye a ra ndi fthe yha vee ve rus edc oc a i
ne . Home rca re-
fuiiydi sagg re ga tedt heus erpo pul ationi ntos toc ksc or res pond ingt ot he sec ate-
go riess ot hemode lc oul dbedi rec tl
yc o mpa redt ot heda t
a .
Fig ure7- 1 4s howst heNHSda taf ort hef rac t
io noft hepo pul aionwhor
t e-
spo nd eda ffirma tive lywhe na ske di ft he yha de ve rus e dc oca ine.Not et hatt he
repo rtede ve r-us e d- coc ainepo pul ationpe aksi n1 98 2a ta bout1 2% a ndf al
l st o
abo utl o啄by1 988.
Thel ifetimec oc ainepr eva lenc eda tai nFi gur e71 1 4i sther atiooft hee ve r-
us edpo pul ationt ot het otalpo pul ation( t
hos ewhone ve rus edpl ust hos ewhoe v er
use d)A Thei nflowt ot het ot als toc kofpe opl ewhoha vea c tua ll
yus edc oc a i
nei st he
 255
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(
uo
GURE7
FJ -
14 0.
15

!tt
Surveyest
imates

]
no?
dd1
oHi
f et
imecocaine
pr
eva一ence 0.
10

O
2
'
i 0u
!13 t
)33ua [e^J
0.
05

￠d

0.
00
1976 1
980 1
984 1988 1992 1996
Sour
c Na
e: t
i
ona
lHou
seh
oldSu
rve
y,Ho
mer(
199
3,1
997
)

initiat
ionr ate.Theonl yout low i
f sdea th.Theonl ywa yt hes tockofpeopl ewho
ha vee verus edcoca ineca nde cli
nei sfort hede ahr
t ateofc urrenta ndpas tuserst o
exc eedt hei nitiationr at
eofne w us ers･3Ye tthes urve yda tare porteda3･ 2% dr op
int henumbe rofpeopl ewhoha veeve rus edc ocainef rom 1 982t o1 988.Eve ni f
ther atea twhi c hpe opl etriedc oca inef ort hef irstti
mef e l
ltoze roin1 985- e ve n
ife veryma n,woma n,a ndc hildi nt heUSwhoha dneve rus edc oca ineJ usts aid
NO! ,somet hingnoteve nthea dmi nistrati
onbe l
ieved- mor talityratesoft hee ve r
-
use dpopul at i
ona ret oos ma lltoca uset her e
por tedde clinei nt henumbe rofpe o-
plewhohaveeve rtriedcoca ine.Eve nwi tht hemos topt l
mi sticestima t
esf ort he
dec li
nei nthei nitiationr ate,itisphys icallyi mpos siblefort hes tockofpe oplewho
havee verus edcoca inet of allasqui cklya st hes urve yss ugges ted･4
W hyt hendi dt her epor tedi nc i
de nceofus efalls odr ama t
icall
ya 氏e r1 985?
The rea retwoma inr easons .First, t
hes ur ve yspr esumet ha ttheirs ampl esa reprop-
erlys t
ratifi
e d,t ha tis,tha tther epr esentationa ndr espons era t
esofs ubpopul ati
ons
(suc ha sdiffer entgeogr aphic,e thni c,r acial,a nds oc i
oeconomi cgr oups )a rea-d
j
us tedt oma tcht hepr opor t
ionoft hes egr oupsi nt heove rallpopul ationa ndt hat
anyunde rrepr es entationi sc onsta ntthrought i
me.Hea vydr ugus ers,howe ve r
,a re
muc hles sli
ke lyt obei nterviewedf orthes urve y.Thought heNHSme t
hodol ogy
attempt edt oa dj ustf orthi sunde rrepr esenta ti
on,the yc aut i
onedt hat
Preval
enceest
ima t
esforspe
cifi
csubgr
oupsa r
esome t
imesbasedo nmod estt
o
sma l
lsamplesi
zes,whichma yle
adtosubst
anti
alsampli
nge r
ror‥.[ T]hisrepor
t
doesnotprese
nte s
ti
ma t
esforsomesegmentsoftheUSpo pul
ationtha
tma yc on-
ta
inas ubs
tant
ialpropor
ti
ono fdr
ugusers,s
uchastransi
ent
sno tr
e s
idi
nglnS helt
ers

3InprlnC
IPle
,theli
fet
imep r
evle
a n cefra
ctionc o
uldfanifthos
eintheev er
-usedp opul
atio
ne mi-
gra
tedfromtheUSt ootherc ounr
t le
Sa taratemu chhigherth
nt
a hatofthosewh oh aveneverused
c
o c
aine.Theserat
es,howev er
,ren
a eli
g ib
g le.Forthesurveytobecorrec
t t
hereq u
iredoutmlgra
tio
n
ofdruguser
swo uldgrea
tye
l xc
ee dall out
mlg ra
tionfr
o mtheUS.
4Thep r
obleminthesurv eydatai swo rs
e.Th eNHSr eport
edad ro
pi nthefracti
ono fthepopul
l
ati
ont h
athaseverusedco cai
ne.Th ed ecli
neinr el
ati
velif
eti
mep rev
a l
encewo uldrequlr
ethe
d
e a
thrateoffor
me rcocai
n euserstog reatl
ye xceedthedeat
hr a
teofthosewh oh a
ven everused
c
o c
in
a e,Thediferenc
eind eathra te
s, however,isver
ys mall
,part
lyduetothel owex ces
smo rt
all
l
tyOfa c
tiv
eus e
rsandlargelybeca usemo stme mb er
softheever-
usedp opul
ati
o nnolon g
eru s
e
c
o c
aineande xpe
rien
cemo rt
ali
tyr at
e saboutthesamea sthenever
-us
e dpopulati
on･
Ch
apt
er7 Dy
nami
cso
fSt
ock
san
dFl
ows 257

(
e.
g.,
use
rsofs
oupki
tche
nsorr
esi
dent
sofst
ree
tenc
ampme
nts
)andt
hos
ein
car
cer
-
a
tedi
ncoun
tyj
ail
sorSta
tea
ndFeder
alpr
is
ons(SAMHSA1994)
.

Tha ti s,f ewf e de ralwor ke rsa rewi llingt oknoc ko nt hedoor sofac ra ckhous et o
a s
kt heo cc upa nt swhe t
he rt he yus ei ll
e ga ldr ugs ･Cons e que nt l
y,a ctivea nde s
pe -
ciallyc o mpul s iveus er sar eunde r
re pre se nte di nt hes ur ve ys .Be ca uset hes epo pu-
1ati
onsgr e wr api dl yl nthe1 980S ,t hes ur ve yss ys tema tica llyunde re stima tedt he
growt hi nc oc a ineus e.
Se c o nd,a ndmor ei mpor ta nt y,1
l nC re aS l
ngl ega lrisksc aus edal ar ge rf rac t
ion
ofc ur r
e nta nde spe c ia l
lyf or me rus e rst ode nyt he ye verus e dc oca ine･ Inpl a inla n-
gua ge, mo repe opl el ie da boutt heirpa stc oc aineus e. Thec hangi ngdi stribut ionof
coc aineus er sa ndde c li
nlngS OC iala c cept a nc eofc oc ainel edt os ys tema ticunde r-
e s
tima tio nofc oc ainepr eva le nc ei nt hes ur ve yda ta.
Byi nt eg ra tinga llthea va ila bleda tai nt oac ons i
ste nta nduni fiedf rame wor k,
themode lpr ovi de dmor ea c cur atees ti
ma tesofdr ugus et ha nwe r ea va ilabl epr evi-
ous l
y. Mode le s ti
ma tesoft hee ve r-us edpo pul a t
i on( alongwi tht heot he rca tego ries
ofdr ugus e )We rede rivedt obec ons istentwi thot he rde mogr aphi c,c rime ,he alth,
prlCe, andpur ityd at a, cons traine dbyt hes toc ka ndf lOws t
r uc t
ur eoft hepopul at
ion
ande pide mi ol og lCa la ndme di c alda taonhe alt
hr i sks .Unde rs t
a ll
di ngt hedyna m-
icsoft hes toc ksa ndf lOwsofus ershe lpsr econc il ethea ppa rent lyc ont ra dic t
or y
data. Fi gur e71 15c ompa re st hemode l'sbe ha vi orf orr e por tedl if etimeus ea ga lnSt
thes urve yda ta , alongwi tht hemode l'se s tima t
eoft hea c tua le ve r-use dpopul ati
on.
Thea ctua lpopul a tionofpa stus ersmus tha vec ont inue dt ogr owbe c aus et henum-
berofpe o pl et ryi ngc oc ai
nef ort hef i
r sttimee xc ee de dt hede athr ateoft hos ewho
hade ve rtr iedi t.Thea vailabi lity, pur lty, andus eofc oc ainewe rei nf ac tinc rea s
lng
througho utt hel ate1 98 0sdes pi tet hebi llionss pe ntone nfo rce me nta nds uppl y
reduc tion.
Inhi nds ighti ts e emsq ul teO bvi oust ha tt hes toc kofpe opl ewhoha vee ve rus e d
coc ainec a nnotd e cli nea sr a pi dlya st heda tas ugge s ted,S ot hes urve yda tas houl d
imme di ate lyha vebe e nc ha llenge d. Buthi nds ighti sa lwa ysc rys tlc
a le ar .Thef act
rema inst ha tt hed a tawe renotc ha llenge d. Ins tea d, thegove mme ntus edt hes ur ve y
datat ot a kec r edi tf orwi nni ngt hedr ugwa r ,toj us t ifyi nte ve
r ntioni nt hea ffairsof
otherna tions ,a ndt ol obbyf o rt oughe rpe na ltie s,gr eate rpowe r sf orl a we nf orc e-
me nta ge nc ies ,mor epr lSOnS ,a ndmor er e sour c e st ode f endt hebor de rsoft heUS
agalnS tt het hr ea toff oreigndr ugs .
Pe rha pst hea dmi nistrationkne wt heda taove rs tatedt her e duc tioni ndmgus e
andus edi tc yni c allyt oma ni pul atepubl ico pini ona ndt hec o ng res s･Eve ni ft r
ue,
itil
nme dia telybe gst heque stionofwhyot he rsi ngove mme nt,a longwi tht heme -
dia,pol ic ya na lys ts ,a ndt hepubl ica tl ar gedi dnotr e cognl Zet hef la wi nt heda ta.
Thea dmi ni stra tion,c ongr es s,a ndt heme di aa llfoc us edont heda tas howi ng
recentus e -t heNHSpa stmont ho rpa stwe ekda ta ,alongwi tht heHSSS-r a t
he r
thanl ifetimeus e･Re centus epr ovi de sabe tte rs na ps hotofc urre ntdr ugt r ends ,and
showe dt hel arge s tde c l
ine,ma kingt hec a semos tf a vor abl et ot hea dmi nis t
ra ti
on.
Howe ve r,t heda tas howi ngde c li
nei nr e ce ntus ec onf ounde dt hea ctua lde c l
ine
inus ewi tht hei nc re a seinunde rr
e por tlng. Thet wos our c esofde clineca nnotbe
disent angl e df rom t her ece nt-us eda tabe c aus et her e
c e ntus ers tockc andr opa s
peopl equi t;like wi se, pastus er sa geoutoft hehi ghs chools eni orpopul ation･ I
ti s
258 P
art
IIT
ool
sfo
rSy
ste
msTh
ink
ing

0
3
(
GURE7 -15

uo!
FJ

tt2一ndod -
Si mul at edvs.
ac tual popul ati
on

0
ofl i
fet i
mecoc aine

2
o uoF
us ers
Not et hatwhi l
et he

to2
tJI) aUuaH

0
1
suⅣe ydat ash ow
adr opl ntheev er-
us edpopul at i
on t2^aJd
after1982, t
he
model esti
mat es
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996
fort heac t
ua一
popul at i
onof ce.
Sour -
Home
r(1
993,1
997) .

thosewh oh av e
everus edc ocaine
con tinuet or is
e,
Onlybye xplic
itl
ya cc
ountingf o
rthes t
ockandflows tr
uctur
eofdrugus e-forthe
thoughata
inexorabl
ea ccumulat
ionofus er
sintotheever-
us e
dpopulati
on-thatthetwoc om-
dJr
mi nishi ngr ate.
lncreasl ngl egal petingSOurCeSOfde c
lineinc urr
entuseda t
acanbes eparat
ed.Unfortunat
ely,t
he
ri
sk s一 edt oal arge abilit
ytounde rs
tandba s
icstockandflowr ela
tionshi
psisfart
oorarei noursoci
-
i
ncr eas ei nt he etytoday,evena mongma nypr ofes
sionalpoli
cya nal
yst
s.
fractionoHor mer
us erswh odeni ed 7L
3.1 TheCocai
neEpi
demi
ca熊er1990
t
hei rc oc ai
neu se.
Themode ls howe dpe r suasivelyt hatt hes ur ve yda tas igni ficant l
yunde re st
ima ted
coca ineus ea ndhi ghlig htedthef ailureoft hes uppl y- si
des trate gy. AsMa cCoun
andRe uter( 1997, p.47)puti t,"Thepr obabi li
tyofac oc a ineorhe roins ellerbe ing
incarc eratedha sr i
se nsha rplysinc ea bout1 985butt hatha sl edne it
he rtoi ncrea sed
prlCenorr educ eda vailabilit
y.MHowe ve r
,ac losel ooka tt hes i
mul ationi nFigur e
7-15s howst ha tbyt hel a t
e1 98 0st henumbe rofpe opl ewhoha de verus ed
coca ine ,thoughs ti
llrising,wa sgr owi nga tadi mi nishi ngr ate･ The re f
or ethei ni -
tia
tionr atemus tha vebe enf al
ling. Byt hemi d1 990S ,hee
t pide mi cbe gant oa ba te:
hegr
t owt hofc oc aine-relatedme dica le me rge nciesa ndde athss l
owe d;a rrestsf ell
sli
ght ly. TheONDCPes tima tedne timpor tsi n1 995a tbe t
we en421a nd51 3me t
r ic
tons,wi th98me t
rict onss ei
zed,l e avl ngne tc ocainea va i
labl eont hes t
reetsof
Ame ricaa ta boutt hree- qua r
tersthe1 989l e ve l
. Themode l,Orlgl nallyde velope d
inthel a te1 980S ,fore castthes edr a ma t
ics hiftsi nc oc aineus equi tewe l
l( Fig-
ure7- 16) .
Not etha tt hepoi nt-by-pointf itoft hemode lint he1 990si sn'tpe rfec t,andyou
shoul dr A
IOte xpe cti ttobe.Si mul ateda rrest
sa re,t
oohi gh,a ndt hemode ldoe snot
trac
kt het empor arydi pi nc ocainer ela tedme di caleme rge nc i
esi n1 990- 91 .Ne ve r-
theless ,themode l'sa bilitytoc aptur et het urningPOl nti nt hee pide mi c,f rom
expone nt i
algr owt ht ogr adua lde cline,i squl ter ema r ka ble,c ons ide ri
ngt hatt he
simul ationss howni nFi g ure7- 16We reba sedonda taa va ilableonl yt hrough1 989.
Theon lye xoge nousi nput sa ffectlngmode lbe havi ora fter1 990a r et het arge t
popul ation( thos ea ge1 2a ndove r )a ndt hepr eva l
e nc eofma r i
jua naus e( apr oxy
fors oc ialtole ra nc eofdr ugs).Cha ngesi nda ta-repor tings ystemsa ndde finiti
ons
we r
enoti nc l
ude d.
 Cha
ptr7
e Dy
nami
cso
fSt
ock
san
dFl
ows 259

GURE7
FI ･
16
Simu一atedvs.

J
ea^p 一
actualcocai
ne

0
0
6
epidemic

doad
Dash edli
nes,

4
0
0
data;soli
dli
nes,

pues
model .

nouト
2
0
0 1976 1
980 1984 1988 1992 1996
Jt
2a^P

5
0
L
do￠
d
pu 2Sn

2
5
OL
I
J

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996

0
0
5
(
uo!
tt
2n
1d
0
0
4
od 0u Ut
0
0
3
1
O
!I

0
0
2
ぶ)aOua一｡^j
0
0
1
a
d

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996

ce:H
Sour o
mer
(1993,1997)
.

Addi ngadd i
tionale xogenousi nputsC Ouldimprovet hef i
ttot hedata.But
mode lss houl
dn otbet unedt ofitdatabyi ntroduci
nge xogenousva r
iable
swhos e
solefu ncti
onistoimpr ovethec orres
pond e
nc eofmode loutputtoda t
a･Exogenous
variablesmus tbejusti
fiedbys ignifi
cantrea lworldevide nceindependentofthei
r
potentialcont
r i
butiontohi s
tori
ca lfi
t.Furhe
t r,Vari
abl
esi nvolvedi nanyfeedback
loopsj udgedt obepot ential
lysignifica
ntr elat
ivetot hemode lpurposemus tbe
capture daspartofthemode l
'sendoge nouss tr
uctur
ea ndc a
nnotbeus edasexoge-
nousI nputstOimpr ovehi s
tori
calf i
t.
260 Pa
rtIT
I わ
olsf
orS
yst
emsTh
ink
ing

Whi let hemode ls howst ha tt hes urve yda taove restima tedt hede clinei nc o-
ca ineus e,mode l-ge ne ra tede st
ima t esoft hea c tua lnumbe rofa ctiveus er s,whi le
re ma ini ngS igni fica ntlyhi ghe rt ha nt hee stima tesr e por t
e di nt hes ur ve ys , dos how
ade c l
ine. Thef ie ldr es ea rc ha ndmode lr esultss howe dthedr opl nc oc aineus ewa s
notca us edpr ima rilybyt heSuppl yDi srupt ionLoopBli nFi gur e7- 130rbyt he
Cl e anupt heSt ree tsl oopB2,a ss uppor te rsoft hei nte rdic tionpol icyc laime d.
Ra ther ,thee xpo ne nt i
a lg r owt hofc oc a ineus ewa se vent ua llyha ltedbyt wone ga -
tivef e edba cksi nvol vingpubl icpe rce ptlOnSOfc oc aine' she a lt
ha ndl ega lr isks.
Fi rst,c oc a i
nei snott hebe ni gns ubs tanc ei twa st houghtt obei nt he1 970S . Aspe o-
pl ebe gant oe xpe rienc eo rhea ra boutt heNe ga tiveHe altha ndSoc ia lEfe ctsoft he
dr ug, the ybe c amel e ssl ike lyt os ta rta ndmor el ike lyt os top( ba lanc ingl oo pl i 3i n
Fi gur e7- 1 3). Se cond, growi ngl ega lri sksofdr ugus eduet ohi ghe ra rrestr ate sa nd
longe rs e nte nc e sde cre as edt hewi llingnes sofpe opl etos tarta ndi nc re ase dthequl t
ra te-t heFea rofAr re str e duc edus a ge( ba lanc ingl oopB4) ･ Ast hepopul ationof
a ctiveus e rsbe ga nt of all, thes oci ale xpos ureofnonus e rsa lsof ell, We ake ni ngt he
rei nfor cingWo rdofMo ut hl oop( Rl ).
Unf or tuna te l
y ,bot hoft he sene ga tivel oo psi nvol vel ongde lays . Firs t,the rei s
al a gbe twe engr owt hi nc oc a ineus ea ndt hei nc ide nc eofha mf ulhe a lt
ha ndl ega l
e fe cts .Ast hei nitia tionr a tegr e we xpone ntia
lly,s odi dt hes toc kofa ctivec a s
ua l
us e rs.Thes toc kofc ompul siveus ersa ls or os ee xpone nt ially,t houghwi thas ub-
sta ntiall a g. Thel a gi nt hegr owt hoft hec ompul siveus erpo pul ationi si mpo r t
a nt
be c aus ec ompul si
veus ersa remo r el ike lyt oe xpe rienc es eve rehe a lhe
t fe ct s( es-
pe c iallya st he yt urnt oc r ack)a ndmor el ike lyt oc ommi tdr ug- r elate dc rime si n-
cludi ngpus hi ngt hed r ugt of inanc et he irownha bi ts.Thust hee xpone ntia lgr owt h
inc oc aine -re late dc rime ,a rr es t
s, me di ca le me r ge nc ies,a nddea t
hsl agsbe hindt he
gr owt hoft hec a sua lus erpo pul ation, whi chi nt ur nl agsbe hi ndt hei nitiatio nr ate.
The rei saf urthe rl agl nt hepe rc ept ionbyt hepubl icoft het ruehe althe ff ects
ofc oc aine. Mos tpe opl edon' tre adt heNe wEngl andJ our nalo fMe dic ineort he
Annal so fAddi ctiont ol e a rna boutt hehe a lt
hr isksofi ll
e ga ldr ugs .Ins te ad, Publ ic
pe rc eptlOnSOfr iska res t rongl yc ondi tione dbype rsona le xpe rie nc e,pe r sona l
ac qua int anc ewi t
hs ome oneha rme dbyc oc aine,a ndme di ar epor t
sofhi gh- pr ofile
indi vidua lswhowe r ea r
r es tedf or ,in jur edby, ordi e df r
omc oc aineus e,s uc ha sthe
come dia nRi cha rdPr yo r,whowa ss eve r elybur ne dwhi l
ef ree ba sing,ort heUni -
Ve rsltyOfMa r yl andba ske tba llsta rLe nBi as, whodi edofa cut ehe artf ailur ewhi le
doi ngc oc ainet oc ele br atehi ss ele ctiona sat opdr aftpi ckbyt heBos tonCe lt i
c sof
theNa tiona lBa ske tba ll As soc iation.
Thes tr engt hofa llthe sec ha nne lsofpubl ica wa rene sst he refor el a gsbe hind
thepopul ationofa c tiveus e rsdr ivi ngt hegr owt hoft hee pi de mi c･Expone ntial
gr owt hi nc oc a ineus ed ide ve ntua llyr educ ethes oc iala cc epta bi l
ityoft hed ruga nd
thust hei ni tiat ionr ate. Howe ver, thes toc kofa c tiveus er sla gswe llbe hindt hei ni-
tiationr ate. Thes toc kofa ctiveus e rswi llrisea sl onga sini tiatione xc eedst her a te
atwhi chpe opl es topus lng,a ndt hes toc kofc ompul s i
veus ersi nc re ase sa sl onga s
thees ca lationr a t
ee xc e edst her atea twhi chc ompul si
veus erss t
o p. Thedyna mi cs
oft hes toc ka ndf lOws t
r uc tur eine vita bl yme ant ha tthepopul a t
ionofdr ugus ers,
espe ciallyt hec ompul siveus e r
sr espons iblef ormos toft hec r i
mea ndhe althe f-
fec ts,c ont inue st ogr owe ve na f
te rt hei nitiationr atepe aksa ndf alls. Thede la ye n-
sur est ha tt her e infor c ings oc iale xpos urea ndwo rdofmout hf eed ba c ksdomi na te
Ch
apt
er7 Dy
nami
cso
fSt
ock
san
dFl
ows 261

thene ga tiver iskpe rcept lOnl oopsi nt hee arlyye ar soft hee pi de mi c,l e adingt oa
la tera ndhi ghe rpe a kf ori nc ide nc ea ndpr e va lenc e.
Still, byt hel ate1 98 0S ,ne arlye ve ryc ommunl tyha de xpe rienc e dthea rre st,in-

jur y,Orde athofa tl ea stoneofi tspr omi s l

ngyoungpe opl e,S lowl ys trengt he ni ng
thene ga tivef ee dba ckst ha ts lowt hei nitia ti
onr ate. Ir oni cally, hec
t oc ainee pide mi c
di dnota ba tebe caus ei nt erdi ctionma det hed rugl es sa va ilable; ont hec ont rary, the
da tas howe dgr o wlnga cc e ssibility ,pur i
ty, anda ffor da bi li
tyt hr oughoutt he1 98 0S .
ins te ad,t heve rya bunda nc eofc oca ine, byl eadi ngt oal argei nc reas ei npe rsona l
knowl e dgeofi t sha rmf ule fe c ts,le dpe opl et ot ur na wa yf romt hedr ug･ Nol onge r
c hic,S trlPPe dofi tss oc ia la ur aa ndbe ni gni ma ge,t hos ewhoc rave des ca pef rom
thewor ldt urne df rom c oca inet oot he rd rugs .Thus ,thec oc a inee pide mi cwa sul -
tima telys e lf-
1iml t
lng.
Thef ee dba c ks tuc
r tur eout line di nFi gur e7- 1 3i squl tege ne rala nda ppl iest o
a nyha rmf uldr ug, lega lori lle ga l.Thepos i
tivef ee dba cksge ne r atinggr owt hi nus -
a gea c ts wi ftly, whi l
et hene ga tivef ee dba ckst ha tde terus age,pa rticula r
lypubl ic
re cognl tlOnOfad rug' sha rmf ule f fects ,a reonl ype rc e iveds l
owl y.Ther esulti sthe
cha rac teris t
icbo oma ndbus tpa t
te mf o rd r ugus e･ Ea chne worne wl ypopul ard r ug
ge ne r atesawa veofna ivee nthus i asmi nwhi c hus er se xt oli t
sbe ne f
its, onl yt odi s-

c ove ra sthepopul a ti
onofus er sgr owsa ndmo r
epe opl ee scala tet oc ompul siveus e
tha tt hedr ugl S n'tasbe ni gna spe opl ewe rel edt obe lie ve.
I nf ac t, t
hec oc a i
nee pi de mi coft he1 98 0swa snott hef irst. As imil rbooma
a nd
bus tinc oc aineus eoc c ur redi nt hel ate1 8 00S .I tbe ga nwi thme dicina lus e,a sc o-
c ainewa spr aisedbyt heme dic alc ommunl ty, i
nc ludi ngFr eudi nhi sf amous1 88 4
pa pe r" OnCoca ,"a sac uref oropl uma ddi c ion,a
t lc ohol ism,f atigue,de pr es si
on,
ne rvo usnes s,t imi dity,i mpot e nc e,a nds ea sickne ss,a mongot he rc ompl aint s.Fol l
lowl ngt hec las sicpa tter n,c oc ainemo ve di nt omor ege ne rala ndr ecrea ti
ona lus e,
be c oml nga nI ng re dienti nCoc a -Co laa nds omec lga re t
te S.Asus es pr ead,a va
レ i

abi litya ndpur ityI nc rea se d;i ns te adofi nje ctingOrdr inki ngt hepr epara ti
on, po w-
de rf ors nor tingbe c amepopul ar.Soo nt heha mf
r ule ffec tsbe ga nt obee xpe ie
r nc ed,
obs erve d,a ndr e por tedi nt heme di ca la ndpo pul a rpr es s.Byt hee arly1 900S ,c o-
ca ineus eha ds pr ea d丘･ oms oc iale li
t est ol owe rs oc ia lc lass es.Communi ti
e sa cros s
thec ount rys trug gle dt ode a lwi thc o mpul siveus e rs( knowna s" c okef i
e nds ") ,and
"by1 91 4t heAt lant apol ic ec hi efwa sbl ami ng70pe rc entoft hec rime s[int hec ity]
onc oc aine "( Gr ins poona ndBa ka lar1 985,p.38) .I nr es pons e,l ega lr estric t
ions
andpr ohi bitionsgr ewi nc r ea slng
lys eve re;i n1 922c ongr essde f i
ne dc oc ainea sa
na rc otica ndba nne di mpor ta tionofc oc a; by1 931e ve rys tateha dr e st
ric tedi tss ale
andmos tma depos s
es si onac rime.Coc a i
neus ef e llf rom i t spe aka ndr ema ine d
low a s1 )eOl )1
et urne dt oot he rdr ugs ,unt ilt hec ur re nte l
)ide mi cbe ga n.Si mi la r
wa ve sofdr ugus eha vebe enr epe a tedlyo bse rve df ort heopi a tes ,forps yc he de lics ,
andf orva r i
ouss ti
mul ant sa ndba rbi t
ur a tes .
Whi lee pide mi c sofa nypa rticula ri llega ldr uga r eul tima telys elf-limi ti
ng( if
thed ru gi sha rmf ule nough)pe o pleha vea lwa yss oughtoutmi nd-a lterings ub-
stanc es .Eve nasonedr ugf allso utoff a vor ,ne we pide mi csbe gi n, cent eredonne w
dr ugsf orwhi c ht he rei sa sye tnoe xpe r ienc eofha r mf ule fe c tsoronol ddr ugsf or
whi cht heha rd- wonk n owl e dgeofha r m ga ine dbypr lOrge ne rationshasf ade d
fro mc olle ctiveme mor y. Themodes tde clinei nc oc aineus ei nt he1 990sl edt oa n
inc re asei nt heus eofot he rdr ugs ,inc ludi ngma rijua na,me tha mphe t
a mi ne,a nd
26
2 Pa
rtI
ITo
olsf
orS
yst
ems
Thi
nki
ng

mosttroubl
ing,ares
urge nc eofheroinuse,morethan20yearsaft
erthelas
twave
ofheroincrest
ed,Thisla testher
oine pidemicwa sst
imul
atedbyt heusualse
lf-
rei
nforci
ngwor dofmo utha ndme diafeedbac
ks,incl
udi
ngt heglori
fi
cati
onof
"her
oinc hi
c"inpopularc ulturea
ndCa l
vinKleinunder
wearads･
5

7.
4 SuMMARY
Thi schapt ershowe dhows tocksa ndflowsge ne r
a t
edyna mics .Thepr ocessofa c-
cumul a
tioni se qulVal
enttoi ntegrati
oni nc a
lculus.Thea mounta ddedt oas t
ocki n
anype r
iodi se qualtothea re aswe ptoutbyt hene trateofc hangei nthes t
ockove r
thatpe ri
od. Conve rse
ly,thes lopeoft het r
aject
oryOfas t
oc ka tanyt lmei sit
sde -
rivati
ve, thene tr a
teofc hange.Gr aphicalme hodsf
t orintegrationa nddi f
fer
entia-
tionwe r
ei ntr
oduc e
d.Gi ve nt hebe haviorove rtimef orther atesa fecti
nga ny
stock,youc ande ducethebe ha vi
oroft hes t
ock;gl Vent hetraje ctor
yOft hes t
oc k
youc ande duc eitsnetrateofc hange,allwithoutus eofc alculus .Thea bil
it
ytor e-
1atestocksa ndflowsi ntuitivelyise sse
nt i
alforallmode lers,eve nthos ewithex-
tensivema thema t
icstrai
nl ng,be causemos trealis
ticmode lsha venoa nal
ytlCal
solutions.Exa mpl esshowt hatunde rst
a ndi
ngt hedyna micsofs tocksa ndflows ,
evenwi t
houtf eedback,ca nyi eldinsi
ghti nt
oi mpor tantproblems .

5Furhe
t rreadi
ng :Shre
ckengostd
evel
opedamo d e
lfort
heUSCI Atoe s
ti
mateheroi
nimp ort
s
byin
tegrat
ingprevale
n c
e,crime,p
ric
e,pur
it
y ,
ando t
herdat
a(Gardi
nerandShre
ckengos
t1 987).
Shr
eckengost(19
91 )appli
esthef
rameworktococin
a e
･Lein
v ,
Hirs
ch,andRobert
s(1975)
,inThe
Per
sis
tentPoppy,developas ys
te
md ynamicsmodelofhero
inuseandabusei
nac ommunityb ased
onacasestudyofthes out
hBr on
x.Theyusethemo de
ltoexpl
oreavari
et
yo fpol
icyopt
ionsin-

cl
udi
ngd emand-si
dep oli
cies,i
ncr
eas
edenforc
eme nt
,andmethado
nema i
nten
ance.Seeal
soLe v in,

Hir
sch,andRo be
rts(1978).Ric
hards
on(1983)devel
opsasimpl
emo delt
oe x
plai
nwh yaggressive
pol
ic
ee f
fortt
os e
izes t
reet
sup p
li
esofhero
inactu
allyI
ncreas
esdru
g -
re
lat
edcri
me ･G61
uke,

Land
een ,
andMe ado ws(198la,1981
b)develo
pedamo d e
lofaddi
cti
vebehav
ior,
focusi
ngo n
al
cohol
ism.Ho l
dera ndBlose(1987
)devel
opamo d el
ofcommu ni
tyle
velpol
icyresp
onsesto
al
cohol
ism.Ho mere tal
.(1982)pr
ese
ntasystemdy na
micsmodelof(t
obacco
)smo ki
ngand
ana
lyz
eav a
riet
yofp oli
cie
s.