Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
HANDBOOK
Nine Paradoxes That Will Shape
the Future of Your Business
WATTS WACKER & JIM TAYLOR
WATTS WACKER is the founder of the consulting firm FirstMatter LLC and a futurist at one of the nation’s
foremost think tanks. He is a graduate of Tulane University and The University of Texas in Austin. He has
lectured at many colleges and universities, most recently including Dartmouth, Columbia, USC and
BA/Norway.
JIM TAYLOR is a lecturer and consultant to cutting-edge companies.
SUMMARIES.COM is a concentrated business information service. Every week, subscribers are e-mailed
a concise summary of a different business book. Each summary is about 8 pages long and contains the
stripped-down essential ideas from the entire book in a time-saving format. By investing less than one hour
per week in these summaries, subscribers gain a working knowledge of the top business titles. Subscriptions
are available on a monthly or yearly basis. Further information is available at http://www.summaries.com.
The Visionary’s Handbook - Page 1
MAIN IDEA
The nine paradoxes are all about being a success -- both in business and personal life areas. The paradoxes describe the future
in the terminology of the present tense -- illustrating that how a person or organization reacts to the challenges of the present will
have a large part in shaping the possibilities available in the future.
Specifically, the future is constantly being rewritten by the events of today. Savvy people and smart organizations recognize that
and use it to their advantage to create a future environment of success in an era of turbulence and uncertainty. By managing the
contradictions of the present, they are then well positioned and prepared for whatever does ultimately come.
Visionaries may not be able to accurately forecast precisely what the future holds, but the techniques used by visionaries will enable
any person or any organization to write their own story. The answers to the paradoxes provide the tools that will enable anyone to
become what they want to be.
The process of nurturing and strengthening your current vision know you exist in a state of constant paradox. And so it is today
of the future revolves around this matrix: with all of us. We live today inside a continuous collision of
opportunities, and those collisions change us and the terms of
Solution our business and personal lives every moment we are alive.’’
-- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor
‘‘No one can predict the future, but no one can afford to be
Know the Don’t know
unprepared to meet whatever does arrive.’’
solution the solution
-- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor
Don’t know 1. 4. ‘‘The future is never what we think it will be; something always
the Listen Question intervenes. The more we measure our progress through life as
problem a series of approaches to a constant future, the more dissatisfied
Problem we are when the real future intrudes into the present. Instead of
Know 2. 3. looking to the same fixed point on the horizon, we need to rewrite
the Attack Leverage the future serially as events change the likelihood of any
problem particular future arriving.’’
-- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor
‘‘What lies behind us and what lies before us are tiny matters
In Quadrant 1, the Future Council has identified a solution to a compared to what lies within us.’’
problem it can’t yet define accurately. You have an answer for -- Ralph Waldo Emerson
the present day wrapped in the language of the future. The best
‘‘Today, creativity still counts, in critical ways more than ever.
course here is to bring in an outside guru and listen while the
Unless we want to live by someone else’s story, we all must
guru tells you which problem you’ve developed a solution for.
become the authors of our own individual futures. To write that
In Quadrant 2, both the problem and its solution are known. In story, we need to gather our own trends, identify where we want
that case, no further thought is required, just action. Assemble to go, establish the path we are on and figure out what course
a team and attack the problem. This is progress. corrections are required and what it will mean if we arrive at the
In Quadrant 3, the Future Council has raised an important issue destination we’ve set out for.’’
but doesn’t know how to go about solving the problem. In other -- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor
words, this is a problem awaiting a future solution. The best
course is to seek leverage -- by outsourcing with people or ‘‘Emancipated from group-think and collective fate, people have
organizations that have the skills required to solve the problem. the capacity today as never before to claim their own futures and
You can even outsource to multiple service providers and to shape those futures to suit completely idiosyncratic wants and
choose whichever potential solution looks best. needs. You really are free, and as all truly free people are, you
really are responsible. Fail to build your own future, and
In Quadrant 4, there are no answers, only more and more someone is going to build one for you, whether you want it or
questions. This is where paradox comes into its own. Quadrant not. Fail to bind all the disparately emerging futures within your
4 represents the destabilizing factor -- the little voice that organization -- be it company, school, government or family -- to
suggests that maybe the future won’t pan out precisely the way a shared set of goals, and its future will be forfeit, too.’’
it has been planned. In Quadrant 4, all those nagging little issues -- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor
that get ignored come to the fore.
Strong and vibrant organizations and individuals ensure their ‘‘While intuition has grown as the means by which decision
Future Councils have at least some members that habitually models are silently resolved, the sciences themselves have
reside in Quadrant 4. These people are commonly called become equally obscure and unexplainable: the physics of
‘‘Visionaries’’ or even ‘‘Fools’’ in the medieval context where the subquarkian particles, the cosmology of the big bang and
designated Fool was not one of the King’s ‘‘yes-men’’ who theoretical mechanics that require no reference to objective
automatically agreed with whatever the current sentiment was. reality have proliferated. The decoupling of human intelligence
from the quantifiable rigors of reason have liberated science to
In short, the only way to deal with paradox is to embed it within
go where no mind has ever gone before. The more we know, the
the organization or within your own personal life. That’s how you
less we rely on empirical knowledge.’’
can live in the present and in the future simultaneously. That’s
-- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor
how an organization can balance the demands and imperatives
of the present with the priorities of the future. Without a degree ‘‘Every moment of every life -- individual and corporate -- is lived
of ambiguity and a little thinking outside-the-box, the likelihood in a tension between past, present and future, and the variables
of being able to successfully create a compelling future becomes between and among the three tenses are always changing.
impaired. Thus, being a visionary means that you have to reinvent your
Key Thoughts vision time and time and time again, and that you have to accept
the near certainty that every one of your visions will ultimately
‘‘Every life, individual and corporate, is also a constant collision be proved wrong.’’
between present and future, and how you choose to live in the -- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor
space between the two tenses makes all the difference.’’
-- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor ‘‘Remember: Your reality is yours alone.’’
-- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor
‘‘When change is constant, it’s hard to know you are constantly
changing. So, too, when contradiction is constant, it’s hard to
The Visionary’s Handbook - Page 4
Paradox #2 Paradox #3
The Paradox of Value The Paradox of Size
Paradox #4 Paradox #5
The Paradox of Time The Paradox of Competition
Paradox #6 Paradox #7
The Paradox of Action The Paradox of Leadership
Paradox #8 Paradox #9
The Paradox of Leisure The Paradox of Reality
irrevocably alter it again. In other words, almost everything a For each of these micro-issues, you can then develop a tracking
visionary produces will ultimately end up being wrong. chart that runs across the five macro-cultures:
Therefore, to create a compelling vision of the future, try these
two exercises: Macro-Issue: ____________________
Exercise #1
1.
Create a Serial Future
Hunter-Gatherer
A serial future suggests that when change is constant, an
approach to the future and an understanding of what the future 2.
holds must be adjusted constantly. Therefore, you can attempt Agricultural
to project into the future based on how things developed in the
past, so long as you remain willing to change your forecast 3.
whenever new and better information becomes available. Consumer
Note that the serial future concept means working forward from
the past, not backwards from the assumptions of today. 4.
Knowledge
In human history, there have been five macro-cultures:
1. Hunter-Gatherers -- the dawn of mankind 5.
Nomadic existence focused on the cultivation of crops for Uncertainty
personal use and domestication of animals.
2. Agricultural -- up to about 1850 A.D.
People learned to use tools to cultivate crops in large
quantities which could be sold. As you do this for all of the macro-issues individually, you begin
to piece together a serial view of how reality may continue to
3. Consumer -- mid-1800s -- World War II unfold in the uncertainty era. Keep in mind this is, first and
Factories became the workhorse of civilization and people foremost, a way to structure and organize your thoughts rather
learned how to merchandise and trade. than a definitive history of the development of society at large.
4. Knowledge -- World War I -- Mid-1990s As you track movements that affect your own career, you’ll
A college degree became the dividing factor between the become more keenly aware of fringe issues. These have a way
haves and have-nots. of showing up in a secondary context in the previous
5. The Age of Uncertainty -- Mid-1990s onwards macro-culture before moving to prominence in subsequent eras.
The World Wide Web achieved critical mass and billions of If this pattern holds into the future, those fringe elements may
realities became co-joined. contain important clues to the way your own personal or
In each of these macro-cultures, there are at least 17 key organizational future is developing.
micro-issues:
• Philosophy -- basic belief about the nature of man. Exercise #2
• Mission -- the object of life. Answer the Four Key Questions
• Preoccupation -- what people are most concerned about. Answer these questions as truthfully and in as much detail as
you possibly can to create a 500-year plan for your organization,
• Work -- the basic staple of economic survival.
or a lifetime plan for yourself:
• Ritual -- the activity that honors a superior power.
• Travel -- the predominant means of transportation.
• Weapons -- the tools used in wars. 1. Do you know where you are?
• Status Symbols -- the outward signs of success. The Identify the core values that lie at the heart
Four of your belief system and character.
• Defining Activity -- what the most distinguished people do.
Key
• Recreation -- the activity most opposite to being at work. Questions 2. Do you know where you want to go?
• Membership -- the defining group of the society. How will those core values be projected
• Physical Structure -- the defining building of the society. into the future and what will be achieved.
• Dominant Resource -- the resource of most value.
3. Do you recognize your seminal moments?
• Dominant Person -- the individual held in highest esteem.
These are the turning points when something
• Learning -- how education is delivered. that will be important in future first appears.
• Intelligence -- the quality of mind most celebrated.
4. Do you have the attitude of the insurgent?
• Visionary -- the person who predicts the future.
Insurgents are prepared to invent new
doctrines and coin new tactics.