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THE VISIONARY’S

HANDBOOK
Nine Paradoxes That Will Shape
the Future of Your Business
WATTS WACKER & JIM TAYLOR

WATTS WACKER is the founder of the consulting firm FirstMatter LLC and a futurist at one of the nation’s
foremost think tanks. He is a graduate of Tulane University and The University of Texas in Austin. He has
lectured at many colleges and universities, most recently including Dartmouth, Columbia, USC and
BA/Norway.
JIM TAYLOR is a lecturer and consultant to cutting-edge companies.

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The Visionary’s Handbook - Page 1

MAIN IDEA
The nine paradoxes are all about being a success -- both in business and personal life areas. The paradoxes describe the future
in the terminology of the present tense -- illustrating that how a person or organization reacts to the challenges of the present will
have a large part in shaping the possibilities available in the future.
Specifically, the future is constantly being rewritten by the events of today. Savvy people and smart organizations recognize that
and use it to their advantage to create a future environment of success in an era of turbulence and uncertainty. By managing the
contradictions of the present, they are then well positioned and prepared for whatever does ultimately come.
Visionaries may not be able to accurately forecast precisely what the future holds, but the techniques used by visionaries will enable
any person or any organization to write their own story. The answers to the paradoxes provide the tools that will enable anyone to
become what they want to be.

The Paradox of the Visionary

The Paradox of Value


The Paradox of Size
Everyday
The Paradox of Time
Paradoxes
of The Paradox of Competition
Business
The Paradox of Action
The Paradox of Leadership
The Paradox of Leisure

The Paradox of Reality

1. The Paradox of the Visionary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 2


The closer your vision gets to a provable truth, the more likely you are simply describing the present. In
the same way, the more certain you are of any future outcome, the more likely you’ll be wrong.
2. The Paradox of Value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4
The value of any product is inseparable from the buyer’s perception of worth. Instead of intrinsic value,
everything has relative value only. Most often, value is inversely proportional to physical content.
3. The Paradox of Size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4
The bigger you are, the smaller you need to be. And the smaller you are in reality, the bigger you need
to appear to be.
4. The Paradox of Time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 5
To succeed in the short term, you need to think long term. Yet the greater your vision and the longer your
time frame, the greater the risk that you will be unable to take the necessary near-term steps to achieve
long-term goals. The tension between short- and long-term planning has never been greater.
5. The Paradox of Competition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 5
Your biggest competitor is your own view of the future. Competition comes from everywhere and nowhere
at the same time.
6. The Paradox of Action . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 6
Nothing ever turns out quite the way you expect it to. Therefore, act intuitively but be ready to act
counterintuitively if required.
7. The Paradox of Leadership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 6
To lead from the front, you have to stay inside the story. In an inherently inconsistent world, consistency
is not the virtue it once was -- especially in leaders.
8. The Paradox of Leisure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 7
Play is hard work. In fact, play and work are blending together and becoming virtually indistinguishable.
9. The Paradox of Reality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 7
Every person on the planet has the potential to be connected to every other person. Therefore, everyone
inhabits a world of their own and represents a niche market of one. As our ability to link grows, our
individuality becomes stronger.
The Visionary’s Handbook - Page 2

Paradox #1 The paradox of the visionary has several corollaries, including:


The Paradox of the Visionary 1. The more certain anyone is of the future, the more likely they
are going to be wrong.
The Paradox 2. Whatever anyone expects to be in the future, they must also
The closer your vision gets to a provable truth, the more likely anticipate what they won’t be.
you are simply describing the present. In the same way, the more 3. The more a person or organization understands its future,
certain you are of any future outcome, the more likely you’ll be the more it becomes alienated from the present and those
wrong. who live in the present.
Supporting Ideas Contradictions like these have always existed in business and
For the first time in history, the majority of businesses and society at large. In the past, however, changes evolved slowly
individuals on the planet have the tools available to write their and there was always time for resolution. Today, the rate of
own futures rather than have their futures dictated by some ‘‘big change is so rapid it creates conditions where paradox is
brother’’ type of central planning department. seemingly a permanent state. Additionally, the Internet now
Therefore, since everyone and every organization can shape makes a vast amount of information available on which decisions
their own future, it’s important to understand the paradoxical can be made.
nature of the world. Without that understanding, nobody truly To address these and other paradoxes that exist, forget about
controls their own destiny. trying to control outcomes and concentrate more on absorbing
Business paradoxes deal with the space between the present the paradoxes and becoming prepared to deal with whatever the
and the future. Some examples of business paradoxes: future brings.
Organic is one of the largest and most successful online The best way to do this is to form a literal or figurative ‘‘Future
business development companies. The company has grown Council’’ which deals with the paradoxes head on by following
into a multi-billion dollar operation by developing Web sites these steps:
for major clients -- that causes Organic to throw its resources 1. Define and articulate your values -- because while everything
into supporting its present success. Yet the more Organic else may change, these won’t.
focuses on the present, the less it focuses on incubating new 2. Change your planning cycle away from the normal routines
Internet based businesses -- where the opportunities of the of life or business. Instead of meeting every month, make it
future reside. Thus the company faces a paradox -- its present every five weeks. That introduces a disruptive element which
success poisons the future possibilities while at the same time stimulates creativity. Free yourself from the rituals of the past.
the future poisons its present success. Have the attitude of an insurgent.
Boeing aspires to dominate the motion of human beings 3. Identify all the ‘‘seminal moments’’ that have occurred since
across the planet. To achieve that vision, it will have to the last meeting of the future council -- events that have
dominate the Chinese marketplace -- since China is such a changed your perception of the future. Analyze how these
large proportion of the world’s total population. Yet if Boeing seminal moments impact on the decisions of the present and
commits resources to the Chinese market right now, it the potential destinations of the future.
jeopardizes its present financial performance. The paradox is
4. Consider how your internal and external cultures -- the way
if Boeing compromises its current share value by investing in
you or your organization act -- need to change to respond to
China now, it will be unable to attract the investment capital
the newly visible possibilities of the future.
required in the future.
5. Take some action that reflects your new allocation of
Kodak has built its business around 35-mm film. What should
priorities. The action doesn’t need to be huge, just visible.
it do if it believes that by the year 2010, the vast majority of
That signals your intention to succeed whatever is required.
image capture, reproduction and storage will be done
digitally? Should Kodak immediately shift all its resources 6. Get a fresh perspective. Drop members from the Council
from 35-mm film to digital imaging immediately, abandoning when they become locked into one way of thinking. Add new
its traditional markets? Or should it systematically downgrade members, and let them work through all the paradoxes. They
its 35-mm operations while building the digital side of the may add new insights.
business? And if it does that, should the management input 7. Keep thinking not in terms of definitive answers but in terms
from people skilled in the 35-mm technology be replaced by of questions about the future. Let questions drive decision
management decisions from people who only have making -- because that’s the only way to accurately describe
experience on the digital side of the business? And, how can the future.
those transitions be explained to the investment community The Future Council will develop a succession of problems and
at large and the company’s own stockholders? proposed solutions which reflect your personal or your
In short, how do you bet on your vision of the future while still company’s vision of the future. To be of any use, that vision must
surviving (and hopefully flourishing) in the present? be changing constantly. At times, then, the Future Council will
At the heart of this and other paradoxes lies the fact nobody can come up with problems for which you have no solutions or
really describe the future of anything with any certainty. In fact, possibly solutions in search of problems.
the greater the accuracy of any prediction about the future, the The key issue at this point isn’t what you know or don’t know.
greater the likelihood you’re describing an extrapolation of the Instead, the more important issue is how you should be applying
present trends into the future rather than something that can be your personal or your organization’s resources to building and
independently determined. clarifying your vision of the future.
The Visionary’s Handbook - Page 3

The process of nurturing and strengthening your current vision know you exist in a state of constant paradox. And so it is today
of the future revolves around this matrix: with all of us. We live today inside a continuous collision of
opportunities, and those collisions change us and the terms of
Solution our business and personal lives every moment we are alive.’’
-- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor
‘‘No one can predict the future, but no one can afford to be
Know the Don’t know
unprepared to meet whatever does arrive.’’
solution the solution
-- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor
Don’t know 1. 4. ‘‘The future is never what we think it will be; something always
the Listen Question intervenes. The more we measure our progress through life as
problem a series of approaches to a constant future, the more dissatisfied
Problem we are when the real future intrudes into the present. Instead of
Know 2. 3. looking to the same fixed point on the horizon, we need to rewrite
the Attack Leverage the future serially as events change the likelihood of any
problem particular future arriving.’’
-- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor
‘‘What lies behind us and what lies before us are tiny matters
In Quadrant 1, the Future Council has identified a solution to a compared to what lies within us.’’
problem it can’t yet define accurately. You have an answer for -- Ralph Waldo Emerson
the present day wrapped in the language of the future. The best
‘‘Today, creativity still counts, in critical ways more than ever.
course here is to bring in an outside guru and listen while the
Unless we want to live by someone else’s story, we all must
guru tells you which problem you’ve developed a solution for.
become the authors of our own individual futures. To write that
In Quadrant 2, both the problem and its solution are known. In story, we need to gather our own trends, identify where we want
that case, no further thought is required, just action. Assemble to go, establish the path we are on and figure out what course
a team and attack the problem. This is progress. corrections are required and what it will mean if we arrive at the
In Quadrant 3, the Future Council has raised an important issue destination we’ve set out for.’’
but doesn’t know how to go about solving the problem. In other -- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor
words, this is a problem awaiting a future solution. The best
course is to seek leverage -- by outsourcing with people or ‘‘Emancipated from group-think and collective fate, people have
organizations that have the skills required to solve the problem. the capacity today as never before to claim their own futures and
You can even outsource to multiple service providers and to shape those futures to suit completely idiosyncratic wants and
choose whichever potential solution looks best. needs. You really are free, and as all truly free people are, you
really are responsible. Fail to build your own future, and
In Quadrant 4, there are no answers, only more and more someone is going to build one for you, whether you want it or
questions. This is where paradox comes into its own. Quadrant not. Fail to bind all the disparately emerging futures within your
4 represents the destabilizing factor -- the little voice that organization -- be it company, school, government or family -- to
suggests that maybe the future won’t pan out precisely the way a shared set of goals, and its future will be forfeit, too.’’
it has been planned. In Quadrant 4, all those nagging little issues -- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor
that get ignored come to the fore.
Strong and vibrant organizations and individuals ensure their ‘‘While intuition has grown as the means by which decision
Future Councils have at least some members that habitually models are silently resolved, the sciences themselves have
reside in Quadrant 4. These people are commonly called become equally obscure and unexplainable: the physics of
‘‘Visionaries’’ or even ‘‘Fools’’ in the medieval context where the subquarkian particles, the cosmology of the big bang and
designated Fool was not one of the King’s ‘‘yes-men’’ who theoretical mechanics that require no reference to objective
automatically agreed with whatever the current sentiment was. reality have proliferated. The decoupling of human intelligence
from the quantifiable rigors of reason have liberated science to
In short, the only way to deal with paradox is to embed it within
go where no mind has ever gone before. The more we know, the
the organization or within your own personal life. That’s how you
less we rely on empirical knowledge.’’
can live in the present and in the future simultaneously. That’s
-- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor
how an organization can balance the demands and imperatives
of the present with the priorities of the future. Without a degree ‘‘Every moment of every life -- individual and corporate -- is lived
of ambiguity and a little thinking outside-the-box, the likelihood in a tension between past, present and future, and the variables
of being able to successfully create a compelling future becomes between and among the three tenses are always changing.
impaired. Thus, being a visionary means that you have to reinvent your
Key Thoughts vision time and time and time again, and that you have to accept
the near certainty that every one of your visions will ultimately
‘‘Every life, individual and corporate, is also a constant collision be proved wrong.’’
between present and future, and how you choose to live in the -- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor
space between the two tenses makes all the difference.’’
-- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor ‘‘Remember: Your reality is yours alone.’’
-- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor
‘‘When change is constant, it’s hard to know you are constantly
changing. So, too, when contradiction is constant, it’s hard to
The Visionary’s Handbook - Page 4

Paradox #2 Paradox #3
The Paradox of Value The Paradox of Size

The Paradox The Paradox


The value of any product is inseparable from the buyer’s The bigger you are, the smaller you need to be. And the smaller
perception of worth. Instead of intrinsic value, everything has you are in reality, the bigger you need to appear to be.
relative value only. Most often, value is inversely proportional to Supporting Ideas
physical content.
Big organizations must break themselves down into small units
Supporting Ideas that are perceived as being highly responsive to the needs of the
Historically, the market value of a product could be determined customer or they will struggle to generate business. At the same
to a large degree by its cost of manufacture. Today, that time, small organizations, to gain credibility, need to project
relationship has vanished entirely -- with the products and themselves as being large and substantial or customers will feel
services having the greatest market value often having a cost of anxious about their ability to deliver.
virtually nil to manufacture. Large organizations have to bring in small, independent and
More and more, relative value -- the price the consumer is willing free-thinking people from outside to fill the Quadrant 4 role or
to pay -- is replacing intrinsic value in product pricing practices. they risk becoming prisoners of their own momentum. The
And interestingly, the price the consumer is willing to pay varies Paradox of Size is a very fine balancing act that extends right
from moment to moment in response to the circumstances and across the entire business spectrum. Unless there is a small
immediate future of the consumer at the precise second the degree of insurgency and creative thinking at the fringes of the
transaction takes place. organization, the power of the center will become dulled and
The value of any product has become inseparable from the misdirected.
buyers perception of value simply because the world is awash The Paradox of Size also applies to an organization’s survival
in products. Everything can be brought through multiple skills. Nothing lasts forever -- no core competency will be
channels, with the expectation that someone somewhere relevant to the market indefinitely. Long-term survival demands
sometime is going to try and discount the product to steal adaptation. And the essence of successfully adapting to new
business away from competitors. Therefore, consumers control circumstances is to weed out old skills or competencies and
the sales equation. replace them with new ones. Invariably, new skills will start at
So how should a product be priced? Sellers can use this paradox the fringes as small experiments which gradually become more
constructively these ways: and more mainstream over time.
By building a strong brand name for a consistently good When considering size, always keep in mind it’s a relative rather
product, sellers can maximize the price margin -- especially than an absolute term. For example, Coca-Cola is by financial
in unstable markets for products like hot dogs or soft drinks. standards a large operation which dominates 50-percent of its
market. Internally, however, the company views itself not as
By embedding services in with their products, sellers can having 50-percent of the global cola market but only 2-percent
create a package deal that generates substantial margins. of the global market for consumable beverages. That keeps the
By spot-pricing their products to take advantage of the spikes company focused on expanding its business rather than
in demand created by external factors, sellers can maximize protecting what it already has.
revenues.
Key Thoughts
By involving the customer in the transaction in some way that
makes sense to the buyer -- perhaps by posting an online ‘‘To succeed as a global player today, you need to couple the
review or by participating in a win-win referral program. predatory practices of a nineteenth-century robber baron with
the anything-for-the-customer attitude of a corner grocer.’’
By adding more information to their products. By managing
-- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor
the flow of information through a product, the process of
creating value is maximized. In fact, information alone creates ‘‘The more you atomize and thus the smaller you make yourself,
and sustains value for any product or service. the bigger your brand has to be. The more successfully you
Key Thoughts break your organization up into tiny self-contained cells, the
more you are dependent on your brand and its promise to
‘‘Let the drones who know both the problem and the solution provide the underlying aesthetic for all that simultaneous and
worry about average margins and average costs. Both are disparate microactivity.’’
important, and they’ll keep the drones occupied. But put the -- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor
people in Quadrant 4 to work on the information because that’s
where the value really lies. It’s not just that the value of the ‘‘We don’t know if we are right about the future -- how can we
information of the transaction is worth more than the value of the until it happens? -- but we do know that none of us is allowed to
goods and services being transacted, although that’s important drift through life without paying a price. Take control of what lies
in itself. It’s also that the specific point at which the customer ahead and it belongs to you; let what lies ahead take control of
interacts with the product and with the product environment you and you will always be fate’s pawn. That’s our argument and
produces the greatest understanding of the net margin our justification. Enjoy.’’
possibilities of the organization. That’s the final paradox of -- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor
value.’’
‘‘The future is a tale that needs constant retelling.’’
-- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor
-- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor
The Visionary’s Handbook - Page 5

Paradox #4 Paradox #5
The Paradox of Time The Paradox of Competition

The Paradox The Paradox


To succeed in the short term, you need to think long term. Yet Your biggest competitor is always your own view of the future.
the greater your vision and the longer your time frame, the Competition comes from everywhere and nowhere at the same
greater the risk that you will be unable to take the necessary time.
short-term steps to achieve long-term goals. The tension Supporting Ideas
between short- and long-term planning has never been greater.
To be useful, the Paradox of Competition must be viewed in both
Supporting Ideas external and internal terms.
To survive and prosper in the current business environment, you Externally, direct competitors are generally assumed to be
need duality -- the ability to generate immediate success and to companies offering similar products or services. That view,
take the steps necessary to succeed in the future. If you however, ignores the possibility that in the future, you may end
understand this paradox well, the tension between what you do up competing against companies that are now in entirely
to generate short-term results and the actions taken to secure different fields altogether. From that perspective, it’s entirely
your long-term success will energize your organization rather accurate to say competition can come from everywhere and
than confuse it. nowhere at the same time.
Smart companies even manage to turn their short-term The internal concept of competition provides a second viewpoint.
problems into long-term solutions. For example, Arthur Life is a journey. Therefore, at any time, what you are at present
Andersen Consulting loses a number of its people to full-time is in competition with what you will be in the future. Your own
employment by its clients. The company anticipates that and self-image in both dimensions is constantly doing battle to decide
trains its people so they form career-long associations between how you should act.
Andersen and the companies they go to work for. Thus
Andersen’s short-term loss of trained people becomes an So how does one succeed against internal and external
opportunity to build long-term client relationships. competitors? There’s only one sure way -- know your own story
and follow it into the future. That means measuring progress by
The Paradox of Time requires that everyone lives in two tenses your own rate of change rather than by other benchmarks. That
simultaneously -- the present and the future. The ideal is to make way, whether the external competition or conditions change or
the present live in the future and make the future a reality in the stay consistent or cease to exist, you still continue to forge
present. steadily ahead.
Whenever an individual or an organization manages to take this That’s why giving away information about yourself creates value.
paradox in their stride, they become liberated. They will then Whether or not that information creates value for a competitor is
simultaneously be doing those things that generate immediate irrelevant. The more complete your own disclosure is, the more
results and taking actions that are aligned with what will be you’ve created value for yourself in moving towards your
needed over the longer term. objectives and targets.
Key Thoughts There is, in the final analysis, just one thing that’s certain about
‘‘It isn’t just that the future destabilizes the present; the present the future -- when you get there, the field of battle won’t look like
destabilizes the future as well. To succeed in the long term today, it does now.
you need to micromanage every passing minute. Change is Key Thoughts
constant, and constantly accelerating. Yet the more you
micromanage, the greater the chance you and your company ‘‘It’s all in how you look at competition, of course: as the battle
for market share or the battle for market access to the economic
will simply cease to be. Concentrate solely on today, and you will
value of your own product, as rivalry between collaborators or
never see what lies around the curve tomorrow. And there’s
always a truck passing just around the curve, and it’s always in rivalry with self and with your own self-promise, as the battle for
sales or the battle for awareness, as the struggle with the
your lane. That is the corollary of the duality of time: The future
company that is producing today the product you are selling
and present of any business or career are different, but they are
today or as the struggle with the company that will be producing
always on a collision course.’’
-- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor tomorrow the product you will sell tomorrow. But how you look
at the competition changes everything.’’
‘‘Never before in history has time been so finely calibrated, and -- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor
never before have the calibrations of time been so commercially
‘‘The law of the jungle says that competition is lateral and
meaningful. The old saw is right: Time is money. But time is more
horizontal: Eat or be eaten. The paradox of competition says
than money. Money can be made in the stock market in a few
ticks. Time, though, is scarce and irrecoverable. Unlike salary, something different: Whether we are an individual or a
it can’t be deferred. Unlike assets, you can’t invest time and corporation, or even a society, the battles that count most are
often the battles against ourselves: ourselves in the present and
make it grow. More and more, too, it is time, not money, that is
ourselves in the future, and ourselves in both dimensions doing
the deal breaker in the marketplace. Busy people are busy
battle against one another.’’
absolutely. The more of the clock they fill, the more of the rest of
the clock they need. And the more unsettled the clock, the more -- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor
they suffer.’’
-- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor
The Visionary’s Handbook - Page 6

Paradox #6 Paradox #7
The Paradox of Action The Paradox of Leadership

The Paradox The Paradox


Nothing ever turns out quite the way you expect it to. Therefore, To lead from the front, you have to stay inside the story. In an
act intuitively but be ready to act counterintuitively if required. inherently inconsistent world, consistency is not the virtue it once
Supporting Ideas was -- especially in leaders.
This paradox suggests that whatever destination you start Supporting Ideas
heading for today will probably be quite different by the time you What makes a leader world-class?
actually get there. Therefore, you’ve got to go for what you can’t He or she must have the ability to be many things to many
reasonably expect to achieve. different people, all at the same time. (Think Nelson Mandela
The Paradox of Action charts a middle course between two -- who is simultaneously a revolutionary in a suit, a symbol of
extremes: suffering, a symbol of reconciliation and equally comfortable
1. If you simply wait for the future to arrive, you’ll have no with political leaders, business leaders and the man on the
meaningful stake in anything when it does. street).
2. Any action you take to prepare for the future automatically He or she must be comfortable with inconsistency, and be
changes the future imperceptibly. prepared to inhabit multiple realities simultaneously. (Think
Bill Gates who is prepared to crush competitors aggressively
The lesson of the Paradox of Action may be stated this way --
while at the same time reaching out to new consumers).
Be as prepared not to achieve your goals as you are to achieve
them. At the very least, you’ll be in a position to influence the He or she must make day-to-day decisions based on facts
results better than if you take no action whatsoever. while at the same time acting consistent with a vision based
not on fact but an ideal. (Think Pierre Omidyar who turned a
Life, and business, is always a balancing act between actions
Web site selling Pez dispensers into eBay, the Internet’s
that perform well in the present and those that are oriented
largest auction house).
towards the future.
He or she must be able to separate short- and long-term
So how can a business be run in the present and the future
value, and make both live in each other. (Think Ted Turner
tenses simultaneously? Some ideas:
who harnessed the synergy created by merging a sports team
Instead of making ‘‘To Do’’ lists, have everyone make ‘‘Why with a TV station together to create the leverage necessary
To Do’’ lists. That forces everyone to connect their actions to build a global powerhouse in news).
with their intended destinations more directly.
He or she must be able to build other leaders within the
Find your own or your organization’s comfort zones and organization. (Think General Colin Powell and General
attack them. Ask the provocative questions most people Norman Schwartzkopf).
brush over. He or she must have an engrossing story to tell. The key
Try compartmentalizing. That means segmenting things elements of a good story are:
between those focused on the present and those focused on • It must be in the future tense.
the future. Decide what the balance should be between the • It must involve a rags-to-riches mythical figure.
two, and achieve that. • It must be summed up in one word or idea.
Break the old paradigms and change the way things get done. • It must be anecdotal and consistent.
There may be a treasure trove of ideas buried below the • There has to be a hero and a villain.
surface of conventionality. • It has to come from the heart, not the PR department.
Good leaders intuitively understand that while they may be
Try outsourcing your present work or outsourcing your future
judged by the numbers in the short-term, over the long haul
work to a third party.
the quality of their story and their ability to make others live
Get alongside an academic institution and let them help you that story will make all the difference. (Think Roy Vagelos,
invent the future. Let them inside the outer curtain and CEO of Merck & Company who committed $200 million to the
analyze exactly how you work today. They may be able to manufacture and distribution of Mectizan to people who could
come up with some great ideas on what you’ll ultimately end not afford the treatment -- only to have the company’s stock
up doing in the future. rise 41-percent in 1998 as a result).
Key Thoughts Key Thoughts
‘‘Every business wants to own the future because every business ‘‘The more our leaders manifest the absorption of the paradox in
knows that if it can be waiting there with a product or service both the ways they conduct their business life and the ways they
when the future arrives, commerce will beat a path to its door, work and live as human beings, the higher our own comfort level
but publicly traded businesses want to own the future for a more with them grows and the more we are willing to listen to and
practical purpose that plays out in the present every day: The follow them as better examples of the selves we know we must
future is what the market values. Market capitalization is in the become. The more they lead in the service not of facts but of
present-future tense: It’s what the business is worth today based ideals, the more we are likely to see, applaud and revere them
on the expectation of where it will be tomorrow, next month, next as people who can provide us with guidance and direction.’’
year or next decade.’’ -- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor
-- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor
The Visionary’s Handbook - Page 7

Paradox #8 Paradox #9
The Paradox of Leisure The Paradox of Reality

The Paradox The Paradox


Play is hard work. In fact, play and work are blending together Every person on the planet has the potential to be connected to
and becoming virtually indistinguishable. everyone else. Therefore, everyone inhabits a world of their own
Supporting Ideas and represents a niche market of one. As our ability to link grows,
our individuality becomes stronger.
In previous times, work and play were entirely separate. Today,
they have converged together so completely it’s hard to tell which Supporting Ideas
is which. For example: The Paradox of Reality, in essence, says there is no such thing
Is taking a client for a game of golf where a deal is discussed as reality -- just a pool of everyone’s individual interpretation of
between holes work or play? reality. Therefore, since everyone is going to interpret everything
around them by the light of their unique experience, an activity
Is answering an e-mail about an important project while at like marketing cannot effectively be carried out to the masses --
home baby-sitting the kids productive? it has to focus on a niche of one.
Is working out at the corporate health facility play or asset How’s that achieved in practice? You can’t vary your product,
maintenance? but what you can do is let the product be defined in different ways
In today’s business world, getting the balance right between that will make sense to different consumers.
work and play can be the make or break point for a convention Take, for example, a Zip drive. This product:
or corporate retreat. Smart companies build a play ethic into the
fabric of their culture -- thus enabling workers to stay at work To a mother means a great way to store valuable images of
longer and think more creatively. the family while they were growing up.
The importance of encouraging corporate playfulness is: To the kids means a convenient way to store their progress
on their favorite games.
It’s both a measure and a demonstration of the company’s
corporate culture and value system. To a commercial artists means an effective way to transfer
large files from one computer to another.
It enables new ideas and new directions to be explored in a
non-threatening situation. Doing business in a world of human beings requires that you
have a high tolerance for ambiguity and irrationality. That means
If aligned with the business of the company, it will energize two incompatible outcomes can and often are true
everything the company does.
simultaneously -- each being partly true and partly wrong.
You can create a whole new way to reward exceptional
Since the future is a reflection and result of the actions of the
performance that won’t impact on the financial bottom line but
present, there are several things you can be doing to create a
will deliver huge dividends in morale and corporate esprit de
satisfactory future:
corps.
1. Become a great story teller. The dominant character of the
Key Thoughts
future will be the person who knows what their ambition is,
‘‘Even away from the workplace, we take our leisure in activities who knows their core belief system and then who can take
that resemble work, and the more they resemble it -- stock those elements and spin a compelling story around them.
reports, book reports, investment decisions, the search for Become a storyteller and you’ll find all sorts of people will be
subterranean meaning -- the more we flock to them. Leisure isn’t keen to align their individual realities with your future.
just leisure anymore. Leisure is work and play, but it’s also 2. Be decisive. Decide what you believe on the big issues and
identification and communication. Like everything else, our the small ones. You’ll always achieve more with a little
leisure-wear logos are made to do double-duty. They speak of decisiveness than you will by vacillating between two
us and for us. They introduce us and identify us. They tribalize extremes. You’ll also find it will be easier to enlist allies and
us and they tell us what tribes others belong to.’’ collaborators when they know exactly where you’re aiming.
-- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor 3. Tell yourself the story of what you’re going to become again
‘‘Get the sense of play right, align it with the business you are in and again until you believe it absolutely. By doing that, you’ll
and with the promise of that business, and you energize not just fuse the present and the future together. Failures along the
your business and your product but the workers who must deliver way will be temporary setbacks, not the end of the road.
on it. Get the sense of play wrong and you enervate promise, You’ll be comfortable living in the present tense but have a
business, worker, product and mission.’’ keen awareness of the future possibilities as well.
-- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor 4. Be patient. Recognition is a paradox as well. You’re less
likely to get recognized for what you do deserve than for what
‘‘IBM so encourages Internet playfulness that its thirty thousand you don’t. If you’re truly world-class at whatever you’re doing,
scientists have created something in the order of two million Web you will become famous for it. And if you’re famous, you’re
sites. Thus, Big Blue slakes the thirst for play, and thus, we would well positioned to become rich as well.
bet, will IBM discover, way out on the fringes of its playfulness,
the next business it will be in.’’ The future is in a constant state of flux -- because it is constantly
-- Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor being reshaped and reinvented by the decisions people and
organizations are making in the present. Therefore, the work of
the visionary never finishes because every time a vision of the
future has been developed, the actions of the present will
The Visionary’s Handbook - Page 8

irrevocably alter it again. In other words, almost everything a For each of these micro-issues, you can then develop a tracking
visionary produces will ultimately end up being wrong. chart that runs across the five macro-cultures:
Therefore, to create a compelling vision of the future, try these
two exercises: Macro-Issue: ____________________
Exercise #1
1.
Create a Serial Future
Hunter-Gatherer
A serial future suggests that when change is constant, an
approach to the future and an understanding of what the future 2.
holds must be adjusted constantly. Therefore, you can attempt Agricultural
to project into the future based on how things developed in the
past, so long as you remain willing to change your forecast 3.
whenever new and better information becomes available. Consumer
Note that the serial future concept means working forward from
the past, not backwards from the assumptions of today. 4.
Knowledge
In human history, there have been five macro-cultures:
1. Hunter-Gatherers -- the dawn of mankind 5.
Nomadic existence focused on the cultivation of crops for Uncertainty
personal use and domestication of animals.
2. Agricultural -- up to about 1850 A.D.
People learned to use tools to cultivate crops in large
quantities which could be sold. As you do this for all of the macro-issues individually, you begin
to piece together a serial view of how reality may continue to
3. Consumer -- mid-1800s -- World War II unfold in the uncertainty era. Keep in mind this is, first and
Factories became the workhorse of civilization and people foremost, a way to structure and organize your thoughts rather
learned how to merchandise and trade. than a definitive history of the development of society at large.
4. Knowledge -- World War I -- Mid-1990s As you track movements that affect your own career, you’ll
A college degree became the dividing factor between the become more keenly aware of fringe issues. These have a way
haves and have-nots. of showing up in a secondary context in the previous
5. The Age of Uncertainty -- Mid-1990s onwards macro-culture before moving to prominence in subsequent eras.
The World Wide Web achieved critical mass and billions of If this pattern holds into the future, those fringe elements may
realities became co-joined. contain important clues to the way your own personal or
In each of these macro-cultures, there are at least 17 key organizational future is developing.
micro-issues:
• Philosophy -- basic belief about the nature of man. Exercise #2
• Mission -- the object of life. Answer the Four Key Questions
• Preoccupation -- what people are most concerned about. Answer these questions as truthfully and in as much detail as
you possibly can to create a 500-year plan for your organization,
• Work -- the basic staple of economic survival.
or a lifetime plan for yourself:
• Ritual -- the activity that honors a superior power.
• Travel -- the predominant means of transportation.
• Weapons -- the tools used in wars. 1. Do you know where you are?
• Status Symbols -- the outward signs of success. The Identify the core values that lie at the heart
Four of your belief system and character.
• Defining Activity -- what the most distinguished people do.
Key
• Recreation -- the activity most opposite to being at work. Questions 2. Do you know where you want to go?
• Membership -- the defining group of the society. How will those core values be projected
• Physical Structure -- the defining building of the society. into the future and what will be achieved.
• Dominant Resource -- the resource of most value.
3. Do you recognize your seminal moments?
• Dominant Person -- the individual held in highest esteem.
These are the turning points when something
• Learning -- how education is delivered. that will be important in future first appears.
• Intelligence -- the quality of mind most celebrated.
4. Do you have the attitude of the insurgent?
• Visionary -- the person who predicts the future.
Insurgents are prepared to invent new
doctrines and coin new tactics.

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