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Many psychologists believe a Kuhnian revolution—a 1962, 1970; Manicas & Secord, 1983). Kuhnians view
competitive event between incommensurate paradigms in the history of science as a succession of paradigms (Ghol-
which a winner displaces losers after chaotic upheaval— son & Barker, 1985).
has occurred in psychology. Cognitive psychology is said Despite Kuhn's (1962, 1970) detailed explication of
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to be displacing behavioral psychology and psychoanalysis, scientific revolution accompanied by historical examples
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but few published data support this thesis. Social science (e.g., the Copernican revolution), determining when rev-
citation records from the leading journals in cognitive olutionary displacement is occurring is complicated and
psychology, behavioral psychology, and psychoanalysis controversial (cf. Horowitz, 1987; Reese & Overton, 1972;
between 1979 and 1988 were analyzed. Results show an Segal & Lachman, 1972; Wyatt et al., 1986; Zuriff, 1979).
increasing trend for cognitive psychology but also high To aid in determination, Kuhn recommended an analysis
citation rates with no downward trends for behavioral of literature citations because changes accompanying dis-
psychology. Citation rates for psychoanalysis are not as placement would be reflected in postrevolutionary re-
high, but indications of decline are marginal. These find- search publications. He stated, "One such effect—a shift
ings do not support the Kuhnian displacement thesis on in the distribution of the technical literature cited in the
changes in modern psychology. footnotes to research reports—ought to be studied as a
possible index to the occurrence of revolutions" (Kuhn,
1970, p. ix). At a basic level of analysis, one would expect
substantial increases in citations of papers from the dis-
which is published annually by the Institute for Scientific example, some prominent journals were excluded because
Information (Garfield, 1979-1988). The SSJCR is a they lacked a relevant descriptor (e.g., Psychological Rec-
companion volume to the Social Science Citation Index ord, Psychological Bulletin, and Psychological Review).
(SSCI). Other selections were excluded because they were not
actually journals (e.g., Annual Review of Psychology,
Database Progress in Behavior Modification, and The Psychoana-
The SSJCR ranks journals according to several citation- lytic Study of the Child). Some journals that had relevant
related measures. From these we selected the four that descriptors were excluded because their mission state-
are most relevant to questions addressed in this study: ments did not indicate a strong relationship between the
source items, immediacy index, citation number, and descriptor and the subdiscipline that the descriptor des-
impact factor (Garfield, 1972, 1979-1988). ignated in this study (e.g., Behavioral and Brain Sciences,
Source items. A source item is a citable item Behavioral Medicine, Behavioral Genetics, and Com-
published in one of the source journals processed for the munity Cognition). Several journals were excluded from
SSCI. Generally, the SSJCR counts only original articles, each subdiscipline as a result of our decade criteria (e.g.,
technical notes, and review articles as source items. Cognitive Science, Behavior Modification, and Psycho-
Immediacy index. The immediacy index is a analytic Review). In 1988, the SSJCR reported on 12
measure of how quickly an average article is cited. It is a journals in cognitive psychology, 10 in psychoanalysis,
ratio of all citations to journal's source items in a given and 14 in behavioral psychology. In 1979 it reported on
year to the number of source items in that same year. only 4 journals in cognitive psychology, 8 in psycho-
Citation number. Citation number is the number analysis, and 9 in behavioral psychology. To match the
of times a journal has been named during a given year sample sizes of behavioral psychology and psychoanalysis
in the citation lists of all other journal articles included to cognitive psychology, we restricted the number of jour-
in the SSCI. nals analyzed for each subdiscipline to 4.
Impact factor. The impact factor is a measure of Selection by impact factor. Of the journals that
how frequently an average article is cited in a specified met our criteria in behavioral psychology and psycho-
year. The impact factor is basically a ratio between cita- analysis, we selected the four with the highest impact fac-
tions and source documents. A journal's impact factor tors in 1988. This selection was moot for cognitive psy-
for any given year is calculated by dividing all citations chology because only four met the criteria.
to articles in that journal in the preceding two years by Validation with citation number. To assess the
all the journal's source items in the preceding two years. accuracy of rankings by impact factor, we also established
The impact factor is important because citation number rankings by citation number.
favors journals that have a larger corpus of citable doc- Validation with editor rankings. Variables
uments (i.e., older journals and journals that publish large other than citation indexes contribute to the stature of a
numbers of documents). psychological journal (Buffardi & Nichols, 1981). To as-
sess the validity of the journals included in this study, we
Data Collection surveyed journal editors. We sent the survey to the editors
We obtained annual raw counts on the four measures for of all journals in each of the three subdisciplines covered
each of the journals analyzed in each subdiscipline. Then by the 1988 SSJCR. We asked them to rank the top jour-
we added and averaged each data set for each measure nals in their subdiscipline in terms of influence and im-
for each year over the decade. For example, we added the portance. We did not recommend journals to the editors
impact factors for the four top cognitive journals in 1988, but asked that they compile their lists from their own
yielding a total of 10.41. We then divided 10.41 by 4, resources. The survey contained blank lines for five
yielding a mean impact factor of 2.60 for top cognitive ranked choices. Return rates were 67% (8 of 12) in cog-
ber rank (Contemporary Psychoanalysis), the top four (see lower right panel of Figure 1). Thus, the significant
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journals selected according to impact factor in each sub- findings for the main citation indices do not merely reflect
discipline were also the top four journals in each subdis- changes in the number of source documents in these top
cipline according to 1988 citation number and rankings journals. Subdiscipline differences in source documents
by the editors. can partially account for subdiscipline differences in ci-
tation number. They cannot account for such differences
Yearly Trends
in the average impact factor or immediacy index, however,
We analyzed the raw citation data with a series of split- because those measures are averages per article.
plot 3 X 10 (Subdiscipline X Year) analyses of variance.
For citation number, both main effects and their inter- Percentile Rankings
action were significant, F(2, 9) = 6.73 for subdiscipline, It is informative to view the trends in the raw data in
p < .05;F(9, 81) = 3.80 for year, p < .001; F(18, 81) = terms of percentile rankings among all social science
6.12 for Subdiscipline X Year, p < .001. The top left journals indexed by the Social Sciences Citation Index.
panel of Figure 1 shows that the annual number of ci- We established yearly percentile ranks for source docu-
tations to the top cognitive journals doubled during the ments, immediacy indexes, citation number, and impact
decade, from a mean of 603 citations to a mean of 1,321. factor in each year by using the following formula: (N —
In contrast, the average annual citations to top journals JR/N) (100), where N equals the number of all social
in the other two subdisciplines remained fairly constant, science journals ranked in a given year and JR equals
from 1,634 to 1,630 for behavioral journals and from 593 journal rank. For example, in 1988 the SSJCR ranked
to 555 for the psychoanalytic journals. Statistical tests of journals in descending order from 1 to 1,370 according
linear trends in these three subdisciplines indicated that to impact factor. Cognitive Psychology ranked 16th, Cog-
the only significant trend was an increasing number of nition 23rd, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learn-
annual citations to cognitive journals, F(l, 3) = 40.23, p ing, Memory, and Cognition 28th, and Memory & Cog-
< .01. We also performed statistical tests of curvilinear nition 98th. Using the formula (and rounding up) obtains
and cubic trends. The only result that approached sig- rankings of 99, 98, 98, and 93 respectively for the four
nificance was the cubic trend over time for psychoanalytic journals. Averaging these shows that the mean percentile
citations, F(l, 3) = 6.41, p < .10. This emerged from a rank for impact factor in cognitive psychology in 1988
dip in citations from 1980 to 1982, followed by an increase was 97. The four panels of Figure 2 show the yearly trends
to a peak citation number in 1984 and then a decline in of each subdiscipline in terms of percentile rankings.
citations thereafter.
Impact factor varied significantly only by subdiscip- Discussion
line, F(2, 9) = 8.42, p < .01. The main effect for year and The results of this study reflect positively on cognitive
the Subdiscipline X Year interaction did not reach sig- psychology. Visual analysis of Figure 1 indicates that the
nificance, F(9, 81) = .74, p > .20, and F(IS, 81) = .52, citation numbers for cognitive psychology are higher than
p > .20, respectively. The only polynomial trend analysis those of psychoanalysis on every citation index. They are
to approach significance was a curvilinear trend for the also higher than behavioral psychology on two indices,
psychoanalytic impact factor, F(l, 3) = 7.89, p < .10. immediacy and impact. The latter is noteworthy because
This emerged from a slight increase in impact factor for the impact factor is a ratio of recent citations to source
psychoanalysis from 1979 to 1984, followed by a slight documents and is arguably the most important citation
decrease through 1988 (see top right panel of Figure 1). index (Garfield, 1972, 1979-1988). In addition to the
The immediacy index also varied only by subdis- visual analysis, the statistical analyses show that cognitive
cipline and then only marginally, F(2, 9) = 4.17, p < . 10. psychology had the only significantly positive trend on
The effects due to year and due to the Subdiscipline X any index (i.e., citation number). This trend indicates
Year interaction did not reach significance, F{9, 81) = high and increasing citation rates for the top cognitive
Cognitive
Cognitive Psychology 1 (3.38) 1 (1,707) 1 (21)
Cognition 2 (2.82) 4 (832) 3 (16)
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning,
Memory, and Cognition 3 (2.67) 3(1,153) 2(17)
Memory & Cognition 4(1.54) 2 (1,590) 4(10)
Behavioral
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Psychoanalytic
Psychoanalytic Quarterly 1 (.72) 3 (446) 3(16)
Journal of American Psychoanalytic Association 2 (.58) 2 (666) 2(20)
Contemporary Psychoanalysis 3 (.56) 5(160) 3(16)
International Journal of Psychoanalysis 4 1.31) 1 (947) 1 (24)
journals. The impact factor data indicates source docu- journals for impact factor (against all social science journals
ments in top cognitive journals are frequently cited. And indexed in the SSJCR) from above the 70th percentile to
the immediacy data indicate that articles in core cognitive about the 60th percentile (see top right panel of Figure 2).
journals have a nearly even chance of being cited in their The rank for citation number stayed near the 80th per-
year of publication. Collectively, these findings reflect (and centile throughout the decade, however (see top left panel
support) the enthusiasm for cognitive psychology that of Figure 2).
underlies one side of the debate over scientific revolution That psychoanalytic journals appear to perform
in psychology. But do they reflect the displacement that better on citation number than on impact factor may
defines scientific revolution? reflect on the recency of citable items. Core psychoana-
Kuhnian displacements are not subtle events. They lytic journals are generally older than core cognitive and
are described as cataclysmic clashes in which losers lan- behavioral journals. Authors of psychoanalytic articles
guish and victors flourish (Gholson & Barker, 1985; also frequently cite older literature (see journal half-life
Kuhn, 1962, 1970). An indicator of loss is a decrease in indices in 1988 issue of SSJCR). In addition, classic
rate of citations to, and relative ranking of, a paradigm's source items in psychoanalysis appear to be cited more
core journals. The converse is true for victors (cf. Kuhn, than classic source items in behavioral and cognitive psy-
1962, 1970). Although our results show an increase in chology. For example, in 1988, Sigmund Freud was cited
citations to core journals in cognitive psychology, the re- almost five times as often as B. F. Skinner and four times
sults do not show corresponding decreases in citations to as often as Herbert Simon.
core journals in behavioral psychology. In fact, there are Another important issue to consider when evaluating
no visual or statistically significant trends on any citation psychoanalysis is that its authors are cited more in the
index to core behavioral journals. These results are not arts and humanities than are authors in behavioral or
indicative of displacement. cognitive psychology. In fact, Freud is still cited more
But what of psychoanalysis? The marginally signifi- than all other sources in history except Lenin, Shake-
cant polynomial trends suggest that citations to core psy- speare, Aristotle, the Bible, and Plato (Garfield, 1986).
choanalytic journals have been decreasing since 1984, as The influence of psychoanalysis on modern culture also
indicated by total citations and impact factor. These de- appears stronger than that of other areas of psychology
creasing trends reduced the ranking of core psychoanalytic (cf. Lamal, 1989). In summary, the displacement thesis
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This article is intended solely for the personal use of the individual user and is not to be disseminated broadly.
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This document is copyrighted by the American Psychological Association or one of its allied publishers.
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Note. Citation number is top left, impact factor top right, immediacy index bottom left, and source documents bottom right. Circles depict behavioral means, triangles
cognitive means, and squares psychoanalytic means.
on psychoanalysis is weak at best. Recently, there psychologists have for their subdiscipline than of actual
has been some evidence indicating a slight decline events (see also Appley, 1990). Early adherents of psy-
in citations to its core journals, but other citation choanalysis and behavioral psychology probably exhibited
data indicate that the standing of psychoanalysis re- enthusiasm for their own subdisciplines in similar ways
mains high in the social sciences and the human- (cf. Koch, 1959-1963).
ities. Citation analysis introduces a degree of objectivity
Behavioral psychology is the subdiscipline that is into discussions generated by such displays of enthusiasm.
usually described as displaced, however (cf. Baars, 1986; Although citation indices are not the only measures of
Dember, 1974; Gardner, 1985; Mackenzie, 1977; Segal health in a subdiscipline, they are vital signs. If a subdis-
& Lachman, 1972; Sperry, 1988). Not supported by ci- cipline were dying, its condition would presumably be
tation data, the repeated declaration of a revolution may reflected by corresponding changes in its vital signs. Such
be more a reflection of the enthusiasm many cognitive changes were not seen here.
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This document is copyrighted by the American Psychological Association or one of its allied publishers.
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Some citation-based research questions related to possibility of theory-neutral data bases, the absence of
the health of each subdiscipline remain, however. For ex- which obscures the possibility of objective truth criteria
ample, who did the citing and what was cited? How often and results in truth determination through consensus.
are articles from each subdiscipline cited in general psy- Establishing truth by consensus, however, is seen by some
chology textbooks or general psychology journals. How as an appeal to "mob psychology" (Gholson & Barker,
often are articles from one subdiscipline cited in the jour- 1985; Lakatos, 1970). In addition, a conclusion that many
nals of another? There are other examples. draw from Kuhn is that any one science can accommo-
It may be just as important to ask whether the date only one paradigm (Gholson & Barker, 1985). Thus,
Kuhnian perspective on scientific revolution is appropri- the contentious context established by Kuhn's philosophy
ate for psychology (cf. Gholson & Barker, 1985; Horowitz, may be the reason so many prominent scientists have
1987; Manicas & Secord, 1983). Kuhn argued against the interpreted the increased popularity of cognitive psy-