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TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Global Strategy Group


DATE: August 10, 2018
RE: CA-45 POLL – Democrat Katie Porter in tight race with clear path to victory over Mimi Walters

Recent polling shows that with nearly three months to go, Democrats have a unique opportunity to flip California’s
traditionally Republican 45th congressional district and that Katie Porter has a clear path to victory over unpopular
incumbent Mimi Walters. Voters report that despite the district’s GOP registration advantage, they would prefer
to elect a Democrat come November and are consolidating behind Porter, who initially trails an unprecedentedly
weak Walters by only one point. Perhaps most impressively, Porter does this with less than 50% name recognition
– a clear indication that she has ample room for growth and a clear path to victory. Furthermore, Porter’s
background and message resonate with voters, driving her to an 8-point lead when voters hear balanced profiles
of each candidate. One thing is clear: If Porter has the resources to communicate, Mimi Walters will be in serious
jeopardy in November.
KEY SURVEY FINDINGS:
• Democrats have the momentum in California’s 45th. Republicans hold a 14-point advantage in party
registration (31% Dem/45% Republican/24% NPP or minor party) but voters are fed up with the status quo.
They are increasingly identifying as Democratic (42% Dem/48% GOP when including self-identified
independents who lean toward a party) and looking to support a generic Democrat over a generic Republican
in the fall (44% Dem/41% GOP), putting this seat in play for the first time in decades. The Democrats’
advantage is even more pronounced among No Party Preference voters (NPPs) who would support a generic
Democrat over a generic Republican by 2:1 margins (59% Dem/28% GOP).
• Republican Party leaders, including Mimi Walters, are in hot water with voters. Voters dislike both Donald
Trump (39% favorable/58% unfavorable) and his ally, two-term incumbent Mimi Walters (38% favorable/43%
unfavorable). Walters’ numbers are even worse among NPPs (21% favorable/51% unfavorable, including 37%
very unfavorable), and a clear majority of voters prefer a Democrat who will be a check on Trump (55%) rather
than a Republican who will help Trump pass his agenda (40%) – a flashing siren for an incumbent like Walters,
who has been one of Trump’s top allies in Congress, voting with him 99% of the time since his inauguration.
• Democrat Katie Porter is well-positioned to win and make history by flipping this seat blue. After hearing
only the candidates’ parties and ballot designations, Walters leads Porter by just one point (45% to 44%). That
razor-thin margin comes despite Porter being known to only four in ten voters in the district and is driven by
a 23-point edge (56% Porter/33% Walters) among NPP voters.
• And when voters learn more about candidates, Porter takes a decisive lead, demonstrating that she has a
clear path to victory. Once voters hear balanced, positive profiles on both candidates that reflect what the
candidates are saying at campaign events, in ads, and on their websites, Porter takes an 8-point lead (49%
Porter/41% Walters) – a clear indication that Porter’s background and message resonate in the district.

ABOUT THIS POLL


Global Strategy Group conducted a live telephone survey of 500 likely midterm voters with an additional 100-person oversample of No
Party Preference (NPP) voters in California’s 45 th congressional district from July 26 th to 31 st, 2018. The margin of error for the overall
electorate at the 95% confidence level is +/- 4.4%. Care has been taken to ensure the geographic and demographic divisions of the
expected electorate are properly represented based on historical turnout.

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