Engineering Risk Analysis

Qualitative Risk Analysis Assignment 1

Group 06 (Tutorial 13)

Tuan Ngo – 742252, Adrian Feng – 833264, Fei Jiang – 876401, Vy Nhat Le – 860112
Finished Date: 15/04/2018
 1. Introduction and Purpose
This assignment aims to identify the possible risks from the case study project, which is “The Tertiary
Upgrade of the Eastern Treatment Plant”, by the qualitative risk analysis and propose a set of
effective measures for reducing the risk rate to an acceptable range. The purposes of doing this
report are to put what we have studied into practice to gain experience in engineering risk analysis
while learning about how a sewage system works in disinfecting the water and how to deal with
potential risks that might happen during the treatment process.

2. Executive Summary
The report is consisted of seven sections, which is introduction and purpose section, context section,
methodology section, identified risks section, risk assessment section, risk treatments section,
finding and recommendations respectively. The introduction and purpose section as the first part
explains the assignment. Following by that, the context section focuses on describing the detail of
the project risk, which includes the background of the project, the risk exposure of key stakeholders
and nominating the “risk owner”. In addition, the method of identifying the hypothetical risks is
introduced in the methodology section. In the identified risks section, 8 risks are analysed by the risk
register which mainly contains the brief description of each risk and the key factors. After that, the
risk assessment section is used to explain the consequence of evaluation of each risk. Furthermore,
the solutions are suggested in the risk treatments section, which involves a set of reasonable risk
treatment options which reduces the risk rate to an acceptable range, as well as the description of
probable obstacles in the process of implement the solutions. The findings and recommendations
section as the last part provides the completed risk register and suggestions to deal with the possible
change of risk situation because the background of the project risk might change.

3. Context of Analysis
In this report, the project situation we will be focusing on is the inherent hazards involved in the
technical/detailed design stage of the tertiary upgrade of the eastern treatment plant. This upgrade
is set to address many of the underlying issues it had whilst also providing new avenues of utility:
providing higher quality recycled water suitable for class A applications whilst concurrently reducing
pollution into the ocean. This qualitative risk analysis will be assessed in the perspective of the
project designer. The associated risks detailed for this perspective of the project are likely to occur
either during the construction phase or in its operational phase. The parameters through which
these risks need to be addressed are
governed by the criteria that:

“The pipeline cannot be taken out of

service for any length of time”

“Superchlorination” or swabbing the

pipeline is not feasible due to a sensitive
marine environment at the end of the pipe
and no sewer connections nearby”
 “Class A water will routinely be discharged to the SEO from each treatment plant”

Should these risks not be addressed, key stakeholders such as TopAq and South East Water could
see a significant loss of potential business as each of the risks involved can each individually disrupt
business operation entirely.

4. Methodology Used and Key Stakeholders Involved

To do the risk analysis, based on AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009 there are three stages to be done which is
identify risk, risk evaluate and risk correction plans. For the first stage, refer to information about the
Eastern Treatment Plant upgrade project and list out some characteristics of it. Based on the given
information, eight risks/ hazards have been identified which is done by specialist technical advisor. In
stage two, how, when and where the risk may occur, and the consequences of each risk has been
stated. Also, the probability and the exposure level of risks are determined. Then Tie Line method is
used to classify the risk based on the risk score. Specialist technical advisor also involved in this
stage. Risk correction plans are designed in the last stage. Tie Line method is used again to evaluate
the justification score. The stakeholder involved in stage three is principal designer.

5. Identified Risks: Description and Existing Controls

Risk Hazard Risk Responsibled Existing Control Likelihoo Consequ Risk

No. Member Measures d ence Rating
1 Concrete will be Physical Adrian Feng Protective Coating - Conceiva Catastrop 22
exposed to a deterioration to Rhino Linings PP1195 ble hic
corrosive system and pipes Pure Polyurea
environment through the
corrosion of pipes Coal tar epoxy
causing loss of
production,
significant costs and
environmental
damage
2 Some wide-span It is possible for Fei Jiang Ground Practically Catastrop 20
structures have Wide-span improvement impossibl hic
foundations in structures which has (depend on nature of e
poor ground foundations in poor strata and purpose
conditions ground conditions to of improvement and
collapse. the cost)
3 Some wide-span Steel bars of those Fei Jiang 1. Using river sand to Conceiva Disaster 10
structures have structures might be replace sea sand ble
foundations in corroded and even 2. Desalination
poor ground those Wide-span method of sea sand
conditions structures might
collapse
4 Biofilm in SEO Distributed Class A Vy Nhat Le Install high pressure Quite Disaster 30
could jeopardise water can be water jetting nozzle Possible
the discharge contaminated along the pipeline
quality
5 Biofilm in SEO Clog pipe Vy Nhat Le Install high pressure Unusuall Catastrop 35
could jeopardise water jetting nozzle but hic
the discharge along the pipeline possible
quality
6 The ground has Physical Adrian Feng N/A Conceiva Catastrop 22
high salinity deterioration to ble hic
system and pipes
through corrosion
causing loss of
production,
significant repair
expenses and
environmental
damage
7 The inflow to When huge volumes Tuan Ngo Improve sewer Remotely Serious 12
the plant can of water reach the pipelines and Possible
increase rapidly treatment plant, the pump stations,
during wet plant becomes rehabilitate private
weather overloaded and sewer laterals
stressed beyond its and upgrade
design capacity. treatment facilities.
Serious damage to
the plant and
pumping system.
8 The inflow to Discharge of raw or Tuan Ngo Designed overflow Remotely Very 30
the plant can partially treated points act as safety Posiible Serious
increase rapidly sewage from valves to
during wet sewerage systems to stop sewage backing
weather the environment. up into homes and
businesses when a
sewer is overloaded.

6. Risk Assessment: Likelihood and Consequences

Using the PI chart, we categorised and scored each of the risks likelihood and consequence from 1-5.
From there, we used a risk calculator graph, and plotted our results to get a risk score.

Risk No. Consequence Likelihood Exposure Risk Score

1 1 5 Rare Substantial Risk
2 1 3 Rare High Risk
3 1 2 Rare High Risk
 4 3 2 Occasional Substantial Risk
5 1 3 Rare High Risk
6 1 5 Rare Substantial Risk
7 2 2 Rare Low Risk
8 2 2 Rare Medium Risk

Risk 1: Physical deterioration to system and pipes through the corrosion of pipes causing loss of
production, significant costs and environmental damage

Deterioration of the concrete structures through corrosion can lead to catastrophic repercussions.
Corrosion diminishes the strength of the concrete piping through chemical attacks, which can result
in a loss of concrete section and concrete spalling. This degradation may result in cracking and
leakage and prolonged neglect could see a complete piping collapse due to the concrete being
unable to withstand the pressure of the environment surrounding it. Should this occur, it could
result in a cease of operation, enormous repair costs and
potential flooding. The existing control measures in place
address this issue quite effectively. The use protective
coatings on the concrete help to reduce both the likelihood
and exposure of the risk to significant degree and as such
we have identified the risk to have a probability score of 5,
with rare exposure and a consequence score of 1 resulting
in a risk score of ~50.

Risk 2: It is possible for Wide-span structures which has foundations in poor ground conditions to
collapse.

Melbourne’s Eastern Sewage Treatment Plant locates in the seaside, which means that the land
contains a relatively high of sand and salt. The ground is unsuitable to be used to build the plant,
especially some wide-span structures because of properties of soft soil and impurities of the ground.
It is possible for Wide-span structures which have foundations in poor ground conditions to collapse
because the foundation of some wide-span structures cannot withstand the gravity of house.
As such we have identified the risk to have a probability score of 3, with rare exposure and a
consequence score of 1 resulting in a risk score of approximate 250.

Risk 3: Steel bars of those structures might be corroded and even those wide-span structures
might collapse

The sea sand contains a relatively high of salt. If the sea sand is used to build the wide-span
structures without any pre-treatment to reduce the salinity,
the steel bar of those structures might be corroded and even
those Wide-span structures might collapse.

The corrosion of steel bar is an electrochemical process. Cl of

sea sand will produce a chemical reaction with the passive
film of steel surface, which means steel bar is easily corroded
because of the lack of protection of passive film. (Yuan, 2013)

As the chemical reaction equation, chloride ions as the carrier will not be consumed, which means
the reaction of chloride ions and the passive film will not stop until the all passive films are
consumed. (Yuan, 2013)

As such we have identified the risk to have a probability score of 2, with rare exposure and a
consequence score of 1 resulting in a risk score of approximate 200.

Risk 4: Biofilm in SEO can jeopardise the discharge quality

Previously, the South East Outfall was used to supply Class C water. As class C water is just under
secondary treatment, bacterial and virus remain. When class C water distributed through the SEO,
biofilm might develop in the pipeline. After the upgrade of the ETP, the SEO is repurposed to
distribute Class A water. Biofilm might affect the quality of distributed Class A water distributed via
SEO. The probability that the risk may occurs is quite possible as SEO is the only platform to
distribute class A water to the eastern customers. However, South East Outfall’s diameter is quite
big. Thus, the chances of exposure of class A water to biofilm is between the rare and infrequent
level.

In case of water being contaminated, its consequences can

be a disaster. According to EPA Victoria, Class A water will
be used with uncontrolled public access. It also designated
for residential use. Class A water distributed via SEO
certainly be the source of diseases.

Using the tie line, the risk score is around 230.

Risk 5: Biofilm formed in the SEO can cause clog pipes

The SEO pipeline system has 10 km steel and 47 km concrete section. As stated in Unasis (2015),
Pulton and Mixon (1992) has suggested that on steel and concrete surface are the environment that
can promote the growth of bacterial. And will lead to the growth of size and thickness of biofilm.

As biofilm developed, it can clog the SEO pipeline. If it occurs, the SEO pipeline is incapable of
distribute water to customers and to the environment. It might create an increase pressure in the
pipeline and may cause corrosion. Which can lead to catastrophe financial consequences in order to
repair, remove biofilm and pay for the compensation for customers.

However, the SEO pipeline has large diameter and the water distributed via SEO are treated under
tertiary level. We identify the probability of the hazard is at unusual but possible level and the
exposure is rare. The consequences are between disaster and catastrophe level. Leading to the risk
score around 200, which is classified as high risk.
Risk 6: Physical deterioration to system and pipes through salinic chemical attack on concrete pipe
causing loss of production, significant repair expenses and environmental damage

Highly saline environments can have a large impact on the structural integrity of the concrete pipes.
Salt crystallisation can deteriorate concrete surface and prevent the formation of protective oxide
layers. Alike risk 1, this can lead to concrete spalling and loss of section; unaddressed it can result in
cracking, leakage and even collapse. Should this occur, it could result in a cease of operation,
enormous repair costs and potential environmental damage such as flooding. For this risk we
assessed it to have probability score of 5, rare exposure and a consequence score of 1 resulting in a
risk score ~50.

Risk 7: The inflow to the plant can increase rapidly during wet weather that leads to damage in the
sewage system due to overloading.

When huge volumes of water reach the treatment plant, the plant becomes overloaded and stressed
beyond its design capacity. Rainfall can infiltrate into leaky sewers, which are not intended to carry
rainfall or drain properties. This infiltration/inflow can increase flows in sewers during wet weather
up to 10 times. These flows often exceed the capacity of sewer pipes and cause overflows at
designed overflow points, access chambers and sewage treatment plants. Serious failure and
damage to the plant and pumping system therefore can occur. (EPA, 2003)
Risk 8: Discharge of raw or partially treated sewage from sewerage systems to the environment.

Despite its diluting effect on pollutants, the increase in inflow into a sewerage system leads to an
increase of a sewage pollutant load. This increase is not regular, but it rises dramatically when the
inflow shared in sewage exceeds 50%. This poses a threat to the wastewater treatment process and
in consequence to the quality of recipient waters and the environment. (Kaczor, Chmielowski &
Bugajski, 2017)

7. Risk Treatments and Proposed Implementation

Risk 1: Physical deterioration to system and pipes through the corrosion of pipes causing loss of
production, significant costs and environmental damage

Whilst the current existing control measures for this risk have significantly nullified its risk score,
there is still room for improvement. Given the constraints outlined in the context of analysis section
of the report, mitigation and risk treatments cannot involve the temporary closure of service, as
such control measures such as regular maintenance and monitoring may not be ideal. One
mitigation tactic may be to reduce the corrosiveness of the environment surrounding the concrete.
A significant contributor to this corrosive environment is groundwater. Rising groundwater can
contribute to a corrosive environment by dissolving salts layered in the soil profile allowing the salts
to chemically attack the concrete and steel piping below. A proposed control measure for this issue
is to plant trees and vegetation along the pipeline to lower groundwater levels, disallowing it to
reach the soil profile. This proposition is extremely cheap and may be just as effective compared to
other alternatives such as altering the concrete chemical composition which is significantly more
expensive. Due to their already being effective control measures in place, new iterations of risk
mitigation that are expensive cannot be justified, thus tree planting is an effective and efficient
control measure.

Risk 2: It is possible for Wide-span structures which has foundations in poor ground conditions to
collapse.

Ground improvement as one of the current existing control measures for this risk is widely used. The
methods of ground improvement that can be adopted depend basically on nature of strata and
purpose of improvement. The final choice among the methods available will depend on the overall
economy in the total foundation cost. In most of the cases, ground treated with one of these
methods results in less foundation cost compared to the cost of pile foundation which is to be
otherwise adopted if no treatment is adopted. (Sneha, 2014).

According to the environmental and financial condition of the case study project, compaction
grouting as the method is chosen to deal with the risk 3. Compaction grouting is used as the ground
improvement technique to improve the strength and stiffness of the ground by injection slow and
controlled injection of a low mobility grout. (ASCE,
2010) The first step is to use drilling or driving
techniques to install grout pipes. After that, the
mortar-like grout, injected through the pipes
replaced the surrounding soil. The grout pipe is
then hoisted for a distance (0.3 to 1.5 m), and the
injection process is repeated until the target layer
has been treated. (ASCE, 2010) Grouting can stiffen
and strengthen the soil layer by increasing its
density, increasing the lateral stresses, and acting as a reinforcement. Grouting may also be used to
produce controlled heaving of the ground surface to re-level a structure that has been damaged by
differential settlements (Zen, 2016).

According to the risk calculator (NSCA), after using the compaction grouting, we have identified the
risk to have a probability score of 5, with rare exposure and a consequence score of 1 resulting in a
risk score of approximate 20, which calculates the risk reduction (92%). the justification score is
nearly 20.

Risk 3: Steel bars of those structures might be corroded and even those Wide-span structures
might collapse

• Desalination of sea sand

The initial sea sand is pre-treatment with fresh water to remove purge coarse grains and foreign
matter in the sea sand. After that, the sea sand with pre-treatment is sent into the heating tank. In
the heating tank, the sea sand is heated to boiling point and maintained for several minutes (no less
than 6 minutes). After heating, the sea sand is conveyed into the filter with hot water and fresh
water to pure respectively. In the last, the sea sand is treated by fresh water and put it into a sand
dumping site. (Ziming, 2016)

• Buying river sand to replace sea sand or sea sand with treatment

Buy river sand directly to build the structures. And the cost is consisted of money of buying river
sand and transportation.

the method one has good economic benefits but takes long time, and it is not necessary to pay extra
money to buy the professional equipment for desalinating sea sand, because the project is not
aimed to desalinate sea sand but treat sewage. Using river sand or sea sand with treatment is more
suitable for the project.

According to the risk calculator (NSCA), after using the method 2, we have identified the risk to have
a probability score of 5, with rare exposure and a consequence score of 1 resulting in a risk score of
approximate 10, which calculates the risk reduction (95%). the justification score is nearly 80.

Risk 4: Biofilm in SEO can jeopardise the discharge quality

As refer to Old dogs & new tricks - ’re-purposing’ the SEO document, SEO has many unique
characteristics that make it hard to remove biofilm. In which, superchlorination and shut down for
maintenance are impossible.
One way of removing biofilm is installing high pressure water
jetting nozzle along the pipeline which will routinely operate.
Alternately, pumping high pressure water from the ETP can
be also a control measure.

Because the SEO pipeline is long and has a large diameter,

pumping high pressure water from the ETP option might not
ensure enough pressure at the end section of the pipeline. It
makes the option of install high pressure water jetting nozzle
along the pipeline to be superior.

Risk 5: Biofilm formed in the SEO can clog pipes

By using the control measure option mention in Risk 5, hazard regarding with clog pipe can be
addressed.

Because the length of SEO pipeline is 57 km in total, installing pressure water jetting nozzle along the
pipeline option will be quite a costly control measure. However, as stated in section 6, the hazard
causes by biofilm can be catastrophe, and some unique characteristic of SEO, it is essential to apply
this control measure to address biofilm.
Risk 6: Physical deterioration to system and pipes through salinic chemical attack on concrete pipe
causing loss of production, significant repair expenses and environmental damage.

Much the same can be said for risk 6 when compared to risk 1. Protection of the concrete piping can
be reinforced by lowering the salinity levels of the ground. This can be done so through planting
trees along the pipeline, lowering the groundwater table from reaching the salts in the soil profile.
As aforementioned this method is very efficient, furthermore it can be seen to address multiple
hazards and risks.

Risk 7: The inflow to the plant can increase rapidly during wet weather that leads to damage in the
sewage system due to overloading.

There are several methods that can be done to reduce the risk such as cleaning and maintaining
reticulation systems, enlarging or upgrading sewers, pumping stations and sewage treatment plant
capacity, and constructing wet-weather storage to temporarily store overflows. (EPA, 2003)

Risk 8: Discharge of raw or partially treated sewage from sewerage systems to the environment.

Reducing infiltration and inflow by fixing leaking or broken sewers can help reducing possible
unwanted discharge of partially treated sewage. Besides, providing enough overflow storage to
allow the contingency plan to be implemented before an overflow occurs also prevent this
discharging phenomenon. (Kaczor, Chmielowski & Bugajski, 2017)
 8. Finding and Recommendations

Risk Hazard Risk Likeliho Consequ Risk Proposed Cost of Risk Justifi
No. od ence Rating Control Correct Reduction cation
Measures ion Score
1 Concrete Physical Conceiv Catastrop 22 Plant trees ~$3000 60% 10
will be deterioration to able hic and
exposed system and pipes vegetation
to a through the along the
corrosive corrosion of pipes pipeline
environm causing loss of
ent production,
significant costs
and environmental
damage
2 Some It is possible for Practical Catastrop 20 Compaction ~$1000 92% 19
wide- Wide-span ly hic grouting as 00
span structures which impossi the method
structures has foundations in ble to deal with
have poor ground the problem
foundatio conditions to on nature of
ns in poor collapse. strata and
ground purpose of
condition improvemen
s t and the
cost)
3 Some Steel bars of those Conceiv Disaster 10 Buying river ~$5000 95% 80
wide- structures might be able sand to
span corroded and even replace sea
structures those Wide-span sand or sea
have structures might sand with
foundatio collapse treatment
ns in poor
 ground
condition
s
4 Biofilm in Distributed Class A Quite Disaster 30 Installing ~$9000 ~72% 2
SEO could water can be Possible high 00
jeopardis contaminated pressure
e the water jetting
discharge nozzle along
quality the pipeline
5 Biofilm Clog pipe Unusual Catastrop 35 Install high ~$9000 ~72% 5
build up but hic pressure 00
and possible water jetting
jeopardis nozzle along
e the the pipeline
quality of
distribute
d water
6 The Physical Conceiv Catastrop 22 Plant trees ~$3000 60% 10
ground deterioration to able hic and
has high system and pipes vegetation
salinity through corrosion along the
causing loss of pipeline
production,
significant repair
expenses and
environmental
damage
7 The When huge Remotel Serious 12 Cleaning and ~$1000 50% 2
inflow to volumes of water y maintaining 0
the plant reach the Possible reticulation
can treatment plant, systems,
increase the plant becomes enlarging or
rapidly overloaded and upgrading
during stressed beyond its sewers,
wet design capacity. pumping
weather Serious damage to stations and
the plant and sewage
pumping system. treatment
plant
capacity, and
constructing
wet-weather
storage to
temporarily
 store
overflows
8 The Discharge of raw or Remotel Very 30 Fixing leaking ~$5000 50% 8
inflow to partially treated y Serious or broken
the plant sewage from Possible sewers and
can sewerage systems providing
increase to the enough
rapidly environment. overflow
during storage.
wet
weather

9. References:

• Akinsola, Olufemi & Fatokun, Ajibola & Olabode E., Ogunsanmi. (2012). Investigation of
Salinity Effect on Compressive Strength of Reinforced Concrete. Journal of Sustainable
Development. 5. 10.5539/jsd.v5n6p74.
• Compaction grouting consensus guide. [electronic resource] : ASCE/G-I53-10. (2010). Reston,
VA: American Society of Civil Engineers: Geo-Institute, ASCE, c2010.
• EPA. (2003). Licensing Guidelines for Sewage Treatment Systems. From
http://www.epa.nsw.gov.au/
• Hirkane, S. P., Gore, N. G., & Salunke, P. J. (2014). Ground Improvement Techniques.
International Journal of Inventive Engineering and Sciences, 2, 11-13.
• https://researchspace.ukzn.ac.za/xmlui/bitstream/handle/10413/14442/Kadwa_Anais_2015
.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
• Kaczor B.G., Chmielowski K., Bugajski P. (2017). Influence of accidental waters on the quality
and loads of pollutants in wastewater discharged into the treatment plant. Journal of Water
and Land Development. No. 33 p. 73–78. DOI: 10.1515/jwld-2017-0021.
• Old dogs & new tricks - ’re-purposing’ the SEO. 13/04/2018. Unimelb material
• Rhinolinings.com.au,. Rhino Linings Case Study. Retrieved 10/05/2018, from
http://www.rhinolinings.com.au/files/case%20studies/melbourne_water_eastern_treatmen
t_plant.pdf
• Schofield, N. & Scott, P. (1991). Planting trees to control salinity. Journal of the Department
of Agriculture, Western Australia, Series 4: Vol. 32 : No. 1 , Article 2
• Yuan, W. J., & Liu, J. Z. (2013). Chlorine Salt to Sea Sand the Influence of Concrete
Compactness. Applied Mechanics And Materials, 454(1), 145.
• Zen, K. (2016). Development of Compaction Grouting Method with Improved Upheaval
Control. The 26Th International Ocean And Polar Engineering Conference
• Ziming, Y., Sidong, L., Yunfei, F., Mingzhe, L., Fan, Z., Zhang, H., & Puwang, L. (2016).
Research on New Desalination Method of Sea Sand and Its Properties. Guangdong Hua gong,
(18). 54.