MEMORANDUM

TO: CHRIS GIBSON FOR CONGRESS

FROM: PATRICK LANNE -- PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES

SUBJECT: RECENT NY CD-20 POLL RESULTS

DATE: SEPTEMBER 30, 2010

Public Opinion Strategies recently conducted a district-wide survey of 400 likely voters on
behalf of the Gibson for Congress campaign. The poll was conducted September 27-28, 2010,
and has a margin of error of +/- 4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases. The purpose of this memo is to
review some of the key findings of that poll.

Key Findings

 Gibson is within striking distance on the ballot.

The ballot matchup shows Republican challenger Chris Gibson trailing incumbent Scott
Murphy by just four points, 38% Gibson – 42% Murphy. Among the voters most
interested in the election, Gibson leads, 41%-40%.

Importantly, Gibson still has room to grow with Republicans (he’s winning 63% of
GOP’ers) while Murphy is essentially close to maxed out with Democrats (86%).
Republicans outnumber Democrats in the district, 41%-27%.

Keep in mind, Gibson is within single digits on ballot despite Murphy out-spending him
by a nearly three-to-one margin in paid media from early August through last week.

 20th District voters are looking for a change.

Scott Murphy shows many of the signs of an endangered incumbent. Not only is Murphy
far below the 50% threshold, his personal image (47% favorable – 34% unfavorable) is
already more polarized than at any point during the 2009 special election. Murphy’s re-
elect score is a net negative, 38% re-elect – 46% new person. Among undecided voters,
Murphy’s image is a net negative (29%-36%) and by a nearly two-to-one margin,
undecided voters prefer a new person (22% re-elect - 43% new person) over the re-
electing the Congressman.

The Bottom Line

By all traditional barometers of an incumbent’s political standing, Murphy looks to be a
vulnerable incumbent. Despite a sizeable disadvantage in paid media spending, Chris Gibson is
running nearly even with Scott Murphy on the ballot. Moreover, Gibson’s message of job
creation and fixing the health care is resonating with 20th District voters

With the ballot testing closing and unable to defend his own record, it is no surprise Scott
Murphy has already launched a misleading negative campaign against Chris Gibson. The next
step for the Gibson campaign will continuing to articulate Chris’ vision for more jobs, lower
taxes and less debt while reinforcing with voters that Scott Murphy says one thing on their
corner, but he votes in Nancy Pelosi’s corner in Washington.